134th Kentucky Derby Preview

30. April 2008  - Published by Dan Clasgens

The field for the 134th Kentucky Derby is set and its time to seperate the pretenders from the contenders:

FAVORITES
#20 Big Brown (3-1) will have to overcome the fact he has only ran in three races. A horse with that few of races has not won the Derby in 93 years. Now,  he will also have to become the first horse to win the race from the No. 20 post since 1929.  His initial workouts at Churchill were impressive as he ran three furlongs in 35.33. The horse has the

Santa Anita Derby winner #10 Colonel John (4-1) is the best from the West. He comes to Churchill having never ran on dirt and that is reason for concern. His style suggests he be more than able to handle 1 1/4 miles. He's training well and right now is my pick to win the race and has been for the past six weeks, that could change by time I get to the window though.

If the Derby were ran a month ago, #9 Pyro (6-1) may have gone off as the favorite. However, a terrible showing in the Bluegrass Stakes (10th place, lost by 11 1/2 lengths) last month was enough to raise concern. Still, this horse is more than capable of making a Triple Crown run and has to be considered here.

CONTENDERS
#2 Tale of Ekati (15-1):
This horse is a wildcard and has heart; Trainer Barclay Tagg did it with another horse like that a few years back with Funny Cide.

#14 Monba (15-1): Already has win over the track and is coming off surprising win at Bluegrass; has to be considered in the exotics.

#5 Eight Belles (15-1): That she would go in the Oaks, but instead she is the latest filly to take on the boys.

#6 Z Fortune (15-1): After losing early ground in Arkansas Derby he showed what he can do finishing second by a nose; Can do some damage.

#19 Gayego (15-1): California-bred did good moving from sythetic to dirt surface, but will have to overcome tough post position.

MY LONGSHOTS
#16 Denis of Cork (20-1): Horse is on his home course and jockey Calvin Borel knows the race all too well; great play for the price.

#17 Cowboy Cal (20-1): He went from the turf to the polytrack and did well, can he do the same moving to the dirt of Churchill Downs?

MY TRIFECTA
$2 Trifecta wheel 10/9 with the 10/9/2/14 wtih 10/9/2/14/5/16 - total cost $48 (could pay in the thousands); you can also go $1 Tri-wheel for $24:

Win - #10 Colonel John, #9 Pyro
Place - #10 Colonel John, #9 Pyro, #2 Tale of Ekati, #14 Monba
Show - #10 Colonel John, #9 Pyro, #2 Tale of Ekati, #14 Monba, #6 Z Fortune , #16 Denis of Cork

OTHER LINKS
Derby Party Game (pdf) - Take your party to antoher level with our FREE and simple party game
Triple Crown Lowdown (mp3) - Horse Racing guru Ryan Wolking joins me on GetSportsRadio.com to break it all down

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Field drawn for 134th Run for the Roses

30. April 2008  - Published by Dan Clasgens

 
1   Cool Coal Man 20-1   11   Z Humor 30-1
2   Tale of Ekati 15-1   12   Smooth Air 20-1
3   Anak Nakal 30-1   13   Bob Black Jack 20-1
4   Court Vision 20-1   14   Monba 15-1
5   Eight Belles 15-1   15   Adriano 30-1
6   Z Fortune 15-1   16   Denis of Cork 20-1
7   Big Truck 50-1   17   Cowboy Cal 20-1
8   Visionaire 20-1   18   RecapturetheGlory 20-1
9   Pyro 6-1   19   Gayego 15-1
10   Colonel John 4-1   20   Big Brown 3-1

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Draft: Fantasy Running Backs

29. April 2008  - Published by Dan Clasgens

With the NFL draft in the books is time to start looking at the fantasy implications of last weekend's picks. We start our tour at fantasy's most coveted postion, running back.

TOP PICKS
1(4). Oakland Raiders: Darren McFadden, Arkansas
McFadden has all the tools to be the man, but going to the Raiders significantly hurts his chances to be successful. Fantasy owners that draft him as No. 1 running back are going to be disappointed, at least this season.  Oakland will likely get rid of Lamont Jordan, but still have Justin Fargas, Dominic Rhodes, and last year’s draft pick, Michael Bush, in the mix. Head coach Lane Kiffin will find a role for his young playmaker, but between the crowded depth chart and the fact that the Raiders will be often playing from behind will limit his opportunities and his fantasy value early on. He will start somewhere around 20-25 on my cheat sheet at running back.

1(13). Carolina Panthers: Jonathan Stewart, Oregon
Stewart is going to be a great fit in Carolina. The team parted ways with DeShaun Foster in the off-season, handing the starting job to DeAngelo Williams, the team’s first round pick in 2006.  This one smells like a running back-by-committee. Williams will likely keep a hold on the job for now, but look for Stewart to get involved in the offense immediately, particularly with the goalline carries. Neither back possesses enough of an edge to warrant looking at them as No. 2 fantasy RB’s, but both runners have great long-term potential. Williams is somewhere around No. 25 to No. 30 running back on the board, with Stewart just a few spots behind him (No. 30-35) heading into ’08.

1(22). Dallas Cowboys: Felix Jones, Arkansas
With Julius Jones now a Seahawk, Marion Barber finally slides into the starting spot he has so rightfully earned. Now there is a new Jones in Dallas though, Felix. The former Arkansas running back lived in McFadden’s shadow in college and now will play second fiddle in the Big D, at least this year.  Barber is a hard-nosed runner who will certainly be the Cowboys’ man at the goalline and see the bulk of the carries as a legitimate No. 1 fantasy running back. Jones is nothing more than a FLEX option for now, but see increased value in both yardage and keeper leagues (Barber in final year of contract).

1(23). Pittsburgh Steelers: Rashard Mendenhall, Illinois
Willie Parker’s already declining value is falling fast and with him coming off a broken leg the Steelers clearly had enough concern about his future to grab Mendenhall, who should’ve never dropped this far into Round 1.  The Illinois product has everything it takes to be an every down running back in the NFL as he is big and powerful, but also has the ability to catch the ball out of the backfield and use his speed to break a long one at anytime.  Parker now looks like a No. 2 fantasy back at best with Mendenhall being a must-have handcuff.

1(24). Tennessee Titans: Chris Johnson, East Carolina
The Titans desperately need to add something to their backfield, but I’m not sure if Johnson is the total answer. He calls himself a “faster Brian Westbrook” and does have the ability to be worked in both the running and passing game for Tennessee.  LenDale White is still the Titans’ back to have though.  Look for the team to pound him and use Johnson more as a change-of-pace back, receiver and return man. Though they drafted in Round 1, Johnson doesn’t excite me unless you are in a PPR league or have deep enough rosters to carry five or more running backs.


BEST OF THE REST
2(44). Chicago Bears: Matt Forte, Tulane
As if Cedric Benson’s value wasn’t already shaky enough, now Forte enters the mix and if things go right this summer, he could steal the job in Chicago.  Keep your eyes on this situation as the season approaches.

2(55). Baltimore Ravens: Ray Rice, Rutgers
With Musa Smith and Mike Anderson out of the picture the Ravens needed to reload their backfield depth. Rice is going to overwhelm in you in any category, but is a versatile back that will be playing behind the injury-prone Willis McGahee.

3(64). Detroit Lions: Kevin Smith, Central Florida
My favorite sleeper on the list. The Lions traded up to grab him with the first pick of Day 2 and can you blame them?  Smith nearly broke Barry Sanders’ rushing record and with Tatum Bell and Brian Calhoun at No. 1 and No. 2 on the depth chart, he could easily slide into a starting role.


OTHER BACKS DRAFTED
3(69). San Diego Chargers: Jacob Hester, LSU
3(73). Kansas City Chiefs: Jamaal Charles, Texas
3(89). Houston Texans: Steve Slaton, West Virginia
4(122). Dallas Cowboys: Tashard Choice, Georgia Tech
5(139). Denver Broncos: Ryan Torain, Arizona State
5(146). Detroit Lions: Jerome Felton, Furman
5(149). Arizona Cardinals: Timothy Hightower, Richmond
5(163). Seattle Seahawks: Owen Schmitt, West Virginia (FB)
5(166). San Diego Chargers: Marcus Thomas, UTEP
6(172). Atlanta Falcons: Thomas Brown, Georgia
6(176). Miami Dolphins: Jalen Parmele, Toledo
6(179). Buffalo Bills: Xavier Omon, NW Missouri State
6(202). Indianapolis Colts: Mike Hart, Michigan
6(204). Miami Dolphins: Lex Hilliard, Montana
7(213). Jacksonville Jaguars: Chauncey Washington, USC
7(227). Denver Broncos: Peyton Hillis, Arkansas (FB)
7(233). Seattle Seahawks: Justin Forsett, California
7(238). Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Cory Boyd, South Carolina
7(240). Baltimore Ravens: Allen Patrick, Oklahoma

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Editing the Record Books

29. April 2008  - Published by Jim Humbert

Here is another quick look at some of the more 'statistical' things going on in baseball this season.

Consecutive Game Streak - On Sunday Grady Sizemore broke his streak of 382 consecutive games played. Sizemore has now missed the last two games with a sprained ankle. Jeff Francoeur now owns the major's longest streak at 352 games. However, he too is battling some ankle problems.

Stolen Bases - In a post a few weeks ago I noted the increase in stolen bases in the early part of 2008. Well things have not changed. Heading into play on Tuesday there have been 483 bases stolen. Last season in all of April there were only 423 stolen bases. It is interesting to note that the three teams that have run the most so far this year are also three of the biggest surprises. The Giants are at the top with 31 steals followed by the Orioles with 27 and the Rays with 26.

Fessler on the Move - In the GSI Fantasy League, Chris Fessler has now made 49 transactions for his team. To put that in perspective, Jeremy Fischer has made the second most transactions in the league with 15. My team has only made seven moves and I am proud to say I'm doing well in second place. Of course the team in first place is, well, Chris Fessler.

Troy Percival - With one more save Percival will tie John Wetteland with 330 career saves, good enough for 10th place on the all-time list. From there he'll need 11 more to catch Rollie Fingers and six more after that to tie Randy Myers.

Home Run List - Ken Griffey Jr. needs just three more HRs to become the sixth player in history to reach 600 in his career. Meanwhile, Alex Rodriguez is doing his best to become the seventh. A-Rod is alone in 15th place with 522 and needs 12 more to catch Jimmie Foxx who is next on the list. A bitter Frank Thomas is doing all he can to hold off Jim Thome on the HR list. The Big Hurt now has 516 to Thome's 513. And in Boston Manny Ramirez needs just four more blasts to reach 500.

Homerless - Chone Figgins has the most at bats this season, 105, without having hit a home run. His last homer came on August 18th of last year. However, that is nothing compare to Juan Pierre who has not hit a home run since September 23rd of 2006. That is a total of 754 at bats.

Randy Johnson - The Big Unit is currently in 28th place on the all-time win list with 285. His next victory will put him in a tie with Robin Roberts. From there he'll be looking to tie Bert Blyleven at 287 and Tommy John at 288. Johnson is scheduled to pitch Wednesday afternoon against the Astros.

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Same old story, same old song and dance

27. April 2008  - Published by Adam Bartel

Had we thought about this ahead of time, I think the writers for the site could have come up with a Bengals draft drinking game.  The events of the two day draft seem to repeat themselves year over year.  For instance here's a few that I've found so far this year.

  • Draft player with a criminal record that was kicked off his college squad?  Check.
  • Select multiple players that most other teams had serious concerns about?  Check.
  • Player not named Chad Johnson asks for a trade out of town?  Check.

Any other events that I missed?

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Volquez continues to sparkle

27. April 2008  - Published by Dan Clasgens

Reds' right hander Edinson Volquez moved to 4-0 on the young season with yet another stellar performance in the Reds' 10-1 win over the San Francisco Giants on Sunday. He once again held down the opponent by working through minor control problems on his way to brilliance. Volquez gave up five hits, walking three, but struck out a career 10 batters.

I have wrote in before on this blog, but with every Volquez start it becomes more true, the Reds' fans still griping about the team dealing the popular and multi-talented outfielder Josh Hamilton are getting fewer and fewer with each trip to the mound by the 24-year old hurler. After Sunday's fifth straight quality start, that group of fans should now be extinct.

The mixture of a 97+ MPH fastball, a wicked curve ball, and a change-up that comes in at 78 MPH, makes it very tough for opposing hitters to have a chance. It's hard to keep in mind that this kid has only had 25 starts, but based off the five he's had in a Reds' uniform it's hard not to envision many All-Star caliber seasons and maybe even a Cy Young ahead. Sure, it's a huge stretch to talk like that right now, but at his age and raw talent who knows where the kid will be at in four or five years from now. Hopefully, he's still on the Reds and still getting me this excited.

The numbers speak for themselves (4-0, 1.23 ERA, 29.1 IP, 20 H, 16 BB, 33 SO):

Apr 6 - PHI - 5.1 IP, 5 H, 1 ER, 2 BB, 8 K's (WIN)
Apr 11 - @Pit - 5 IP, 3 H, 0 ER, 2 BB, 1 K
Apr 17 - @ChC - 5 IP, 4 H, 1 ER, 4 BB, 7 K's (WIN)
Apr 22 - LAD - 7 IP, 3 H, 1 ER, 4 BB, 7 K's (WIN)
Apr 27 - @SF - 7 IP, 5 H, 1 ER, 3 BB, 10 K's (WIN)

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Draft: Day Two Recap

27. April 2008  - Published by Dan Clasgens

If you are still sitting on the couch watching the draft coverage at this point you have a real problem. For most of you that haven't been hypnotized by  Mel Kiper's hair, here are the things you need to know from Sunday.

BENGALS
The team used the extra picks to their advantaged and continued to fill holes:

Round 3 (77) - DT Pat Sims, Auburn - Only started last year after quitting team, but has great upside.

*Round 3 (97) - WR Andre Caldwell, Florida - Reche's brother posted good 40-time at combine, but hasn't shown it on field yet.

Round 4 (112) - T Anthony Collins, Kansas - Shows great versatility and could develop nicely; nice value for the spot.

Round 5 (145) - DT Jason Shirley, Frenso State - Has nice size, but lacks much consistentcy; many had him going undrafted

Round 6 (177) - S Corey Lynch, Appalachian State - Immediate special teams contributor; kick-blocking specialist

*Round 6 (207) - TE Matthew Sherry - Villanova - Athletic, pass-catching tight end. WOW! That's two on the team

*Round 7 (244) - OLB Angelo Craig - Cincinnati - Hometown favorite played DE in college, but he's better suited to be a LB

*Round 7 (246) - WR Mario Urrutia, Louisville - Junior is very raw, but has the frame and attibutes to develop

OTHER NEWS
Lions trade up to get running back
Detroit News - "The Detroit Lions turned aggressive on the second day of the NFL draft, using trades that netted three third-round picks to fill needs at running back and defensive line. Running back Kevin Smith of Central Florida, defensive tackle Andre Fluellen of Florida State and defensive end Cliff Avril of Purdue were drafted on the third round."

Giants gamble on Michigan's Mario
New York Daily News - "The Giants just made a very controversial selection by taking Michigan wide receiver Mario Manningham. There's not a lot of doubt about the talent in that pick of the 5-11, 178-pounder. But there's a lot of baggage that comes along with him, too."

Draft sets new trade record
ESPN.com - "NFL decision-makers were a finicky lot at the NFL draft, making a record 33 trades on Saturday and Sunday, surpassing the previous record of 28 from the 2004 draft."

DRAFT TRACKER: ROUNDS | TEAMS | POSITIONS

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Really hard to be a Bengals fan

27. April 2008  - Published by Jimmy Dinsmore

I honestly don't know which is more agonizing, being a Bengals fan in the off-season or a Bengals fan during the regular season. For most teams, hope springs eternal in the off-season. The wait-til-next-year mentality usually spurs interest for the fan base. But here in Cincinnati, it's a never-ending case of disappointed drafts, head scratching free agent moves, lack of free agent moves, off-the-field troubles, and players shooting their mouths off about wanting out of town.  All of this is a mounting frustration for fans. It almost makes you yearn for the season to start, just so we can have the distraction of yet another disappointing season of missing the playoffs and to hear Marvin Lewis' lies and smugness. Instead we get to hear Marvin's cronies (revolving door of coaches and coordinators) try to convince us that they were right about Jerome Simpson and EVERYONE ELSE was wrong and that it wasn't a reach to take a 4th-round projected WR from a two-bit college so early. No, trust us, and drink this Kool-Aid, and while you're doing that, keep buying up the tickets for the season because this is the year.

No, the Bengals franchise is an absolute laughing stock. Abysmal ownership, poor coaching, poor drafting, poor personnel decisions, poor performance which leaves all of us fans angry and poor from paying for tickets and merchandise. And for what? 

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Fantasy: Covering the Bases

27. April 2008  - Published by Dan Clasgens

The NFL draft may have diverted your attention, so here's everything you need to know for Week 5:

STUDS OF THE WEEK
The Phillies are happy with their new closer Brad Lidge. He has yet to allow on in 11 innings this season and converted four saves over the last week making his fantasy owners happy too. Lidge's former teammate, Astros' 1B Lance Berkman, joins him on our stud list this week. Berkman has homered four times over his past six games, driving in 12 runs and hitting .500 in that span.


DUDS OF THE WEEK
Manny Corpas
, who was stellar in the Rockies' playoff run last year, lost his job as the Rockies' closer after blowing two more saves this past week. In three innings of work this week Corpas allowed five runs. It was a week of flukes for the Blue Jays' Alex Rios. After a routine off day on Tuesday he caught the flu bug and missed Wednesday only to return to the lineup and get tossed early on in Thursday's game. All of this left Rios' owners with just four games of production.


KEY INJURIES
OF Alfonso Soriano (CHC):OF- Should be back May 1
SS Jimmy Rollins (PHI): Could be back at end of draft
DH David Ortiz (BOS): Day-to-day with bruised knee
3B Chipper Jones (ATL): Day-to-day with back cramps
3B Hank Blalock (TEX): Out until at least TUE, DL a possibility
RP Rafael Soriano (ATL): Should resume as closer by mid-week
OF Mike Cameron (MIL): Suspension ends Tuesday
2B Howie Kendrick (ANA): Should return early in week.
OF Shane Victorino (PHI): Should be back on Tuesday
OF Moises Alou (NYM): Rehab put on hold due to sore ankle
SP Jake Westbrook (CLE): Put on DL and out until late May
SP Scott Kazmir (TB): Might pitch on May 3 or 4
SP Kevin Slowley (MIN): Expected to make rehab start May 1


TWICE AS NICE
Here are some two-start pitchers to consider this week:

AL
Must-starts:
Roy Halladay - @BOS (Daisuke Matsuzaka), CHW (Javier Vazquez))
Fausto Carmona – SEA (Carlos Silva), KC (Brett Tomko)
Joe Saunders – OAK (Greg Smith), BAL (Undecided)

Sleeper Picks:
Daniel Cabrera - @CHW (Javier Vazquez), @LAA (Jon Garland)
Chad Gaudin - @LAA (Jon Garland), TEX (Vicente Padilla)
Phil Hughes – DET (Kenny Rogers), SEA (Carlos Silva)

NL
Must-Starts:
Cole Hamels – SD (Greg Maddux), SF (Matt Cain)
Johan Santana – PIT (Ian Snell), @ARI (Dan Haren)
Derek Lowe - @FLA (Andrew Miller), @COL (Kendry Morales)

Sleeper Picks:
Tom Glavine - @WAS (Tim Redding), CIN (Bronson Arroyo)
Todd Wellemeyer – CIN (Bronson Arroyo), CHC (Jason Marquis)
Tom Gorzelanny - @NYM (Oliver Perez), @WAS (Tim Redding)


WAIVER WATCH (from leagues played at CBSSports.com)
Five most added:
RP Brian Fuentes - COL (+45% roster change)
OF Curtis Granderson - DET (+34%)
RP J.J. Putz - SEA (31%)
SP Jonathan Sanchez - SF (30%)
SP Chad Gaudin - OAK (30%)

Five most dropped (non-injured):
RP Manny Corpas - COL (-29%)
SP Edwin Jackson - TB (-15%)
SP Francisco Liriano - MIN (-13%)
OF Corey Patterson - CIN (-13%)
SP Justin Germano - SD (-12%)


GAMES PLAYED
Let's take a look at how many games each team will be playing this week:

American League
7: BAL, CLE, LAA, NYY, OAK
6: BOS, CHW, DET, KC, SEA, TB, TEX, TOR
5: MIN

National League
7: PIT
6: ARI, CHC, CIN, COL, FLA, HOU, LAD, MIL, NYM, PHI, SD, SF, STL, WAS
5: ATL

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Coach K's coaching development reputation on the line

27. April 2008  - Published by Adam Bartel

Stanford University hired longtime Duke assistant Johnny Dawkins as their new head men's basketball coach, replacing former coach Trent Johnson, who left the school to fill the open job at LSU.  Some might say this is a slam dunk hire; others, like myself, are looking at this for what it is - the ultimate judgment of Mike Krzyzewski's coaching tree.

Dawkins has been hyped for years as Coach K's prodigy.  He's been a Duke assistant for 11 seasons, nine of those as the associate head coach.  It was even speculated for a while that Dawkins was being groomed as his eventual replacement.  I'd often wondered, if he was such a fantastic prospect of a coach, why he hadn't been offered a head job somewhere.

Maybe the reason is that, for the most part, Krzyzewski's protoges haven't fared all that well.  Check out some of the leaves of the Coach K tree:

  • Mike Brey (not a lot of people remember that he came from Duke, but he's probably their most successful former assistant)
  • Bob Bender (a general disaster at Washington)
  • Jeff Capel (pretty solid career so far at VCU and Washington)
  • Tommy Amaker (left a mess in his wake at Seton Hall, needed help from Dick Vitale to get the job at Michigan, and then departed under shaky circumstances from Michigan, where he never made the tournament in seven seasons)
  • David Henderson (irrelevant at Delaware)
  • Neil Dougherty (TCU; who?  'Nuff said.)
  • Quin Snyder (recruited well, coached poorly, and had a litany of questionable incidents at Missouri - if he was a Bob Huggins assistant, I can only imagine how the national press would have treated this guy)

No one ever seems to want to discuss this in relation to Coach K, but his assistants have been some of the most overrated in college basketball.  As much hype as Dawkins has garnered over the years, the pressure ought to be on him to produce.  We'll just have to sit back and see how this works out.

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