The NFL season officially ends on Sunday as the Cardinals and Steelers tangle in Tampa for Super Bowl XLIII. The growing consensus seems to favor the Steelers, and for good reason. Still, I see it being a close game. Here's how I see things unfolding.

Pittsburgh no doubt has a tenacious defense. They blitz as good as any team in football and have the speed at linebackers to force the issue. Defenisve coordinator Dick LeBeau is going to have something up his sleeve with two weeks to prepare. 

Arizona's offense is going to be up for the challenge though. Kurt Warner is amongst the best in the league at passing under pressure and Larry Fitzgerald is having one of the greatest playoff runs ever. The team has found a way to keeps things just off-balanced enough by usinig the running game effectively.

I expect both units to make plays in this game and to force the issue. I do not see a scenario where Arizona is kept off the scoreboard like many are suggesting.

The game ultimately is going to come down to what happens on special teams and the other side of the ball. The Cardinals' defense has been highly overlooked for their stellar play during their improbable run. They bent, but did not break against the Eagles and made big plays all game long. That came on the heels of them shutting down the high-powered Panthers and Falcons' running attacks. For the most part they contained the big-play wideouts (Roddy White and Steve Smith) and more importantly helped the offense out by providing good field position.

Ben Roethlisberger is more than healthy enough to play this game and has acheived despite playing behind an average offensive line. Santonio Holmes is the team's biggest weapon in the passing game and will need to break a few plays to loosen things up for the running game. Willie Parker is going to be the difference though. Finally, he's 100% and I forsee him being a problem for the Cardinals' defense.

Both teams have had good play from their special teams, but one mistake could alter the outcome of this game.

Weather will not be on the Steelers' side. After playing most of the past month plus in frigid conditions and in their home stadium, they travel to Tampa. They should have a bigger crowd though, which could prove to be a factor.

MY PICK AND WHY: STEELERS 24, CARDINALS 20 - I see the game going either way and feel that the Cardinals will have a chance late in the fourth quarter. I like the fact that the Cards' coaching staff is so familiar with the Steelers even if Ken Whisenhunt doesn't see it. Still, Pittsburgh has proved to me all season that they can win the big game. It hasn't always been pretty, but they typically get the job done in the end as the 14-4 record would indicate. The Cardinals have never been here before, but Kurt Warner has. With two weeks of rest and the focus on Larry Fitzgerald, I expect Anquan Boldin to be the potential X-factor to keeping the Cards in it. The Steelers have more "big game experience" this year and have excelled in the fourth quarter. Even if the Cards have the lead, they struggle to grind it out and will do so badly against Pittsburgh. Look for the Cards to stay with the Steelers, but fade late as Pittsburgh gets their sixth title.

MVP PICKS - Willie Parker (my pick); Kurt Warner (if Cards pull it out)

MY BEST BETS (based off $100) - For Amusement Only ;-)
$50 - Cardinals +6.5
$20 - Parlay Cardinals +6.5/Under 47 (don't love the under)
$20 - Money Line Cardinals +195 (just in case they pull it off - they have to win, but you get $19.50 for every $10 bet)
$10 - Willie Parker to win MVP (+550) - $10 gets back $55

SUPER LINKS
--UTLIMATE SUPERBOWL PARTY PROP GAME (Bodog.com)
--COMPLETE MAN COVERAGE OF SUPER BOWL (AskMen.com)
--LATEST VEGAS ODDS (VegasInsider.com)
--SUPER BOWL XLIII PROP BETS (VegasInsider.com)
--MOCK CELEBRITY SUPER BOWL PICKS (HolyTaco.com)
--FLASHBACK: FAVORITE SUPER BOWL COMMERCIALS (from GetSportsInfo.com)
--HOMETOWN HOTTIES: PITTSBURGH VS. ARIZONA (from Maxim.com)

NFL super bowl, cardinals, steelers, super bowl picks

Here are some of the latest headlines from around the MLB Hot Stove to heat you up:

DODGERS STILL WAITING FOR MANNY (ESPN.com)
The Dodgers made a $45 million offer to Ramirez in November and then withdrew it when Boras did not respond, and then the Dodgers made an offer of arbitration, and again, Boras did not respond, according to L.A. officials. So the Dodgers have sat back and waited for any other serious bidder for Ramirez to emerge, waited to see if there was any reason to extend their own offer...MORE

VARITEK STAYING IN BOSTON (Boston Globe)
The captain is not going anywhere. Ending a three-month saga hours before a team-imposed deadline, the Red Sox and catcher Jason Varitek agreed to a one-year contract with a team option for 2010, two sources with knowledge of the deal confirmed yesterday. Varitek, who turns 37 in April, will receive $5 million in 2009. The Sox hold a $5 million option for 2010...MORE

SHEETS RUNNING OUT OF OPTIONS (MLB.com)
Ben Sheets and the Brewers have not spoken since the Brewers asked whether Sheets would consider an incentive-based contract similar to John Smoltz's ($4.5MM in incentives) or Brad Penny's ($3MM in incentives). It appears that Sheets was not open to an similar offer, but the Brewers won't offer a multi-year deal. GM Doug Melvin maintains the club isn't likely to sign Sheets, but he hasn't completely ruled out the possibility...MORE

CUBS SHOPPING HILL (Baltimore Sun)
The Orioles and Chicago Cubs are again involved in trade talks, this time about Cubs left-handed starting pitcher Rich Hill. According to industry sources, the teams have had talks about Hill, a one-time top prospect who is struggling to regain his command. Tne industry source said it's a "strong possibility" that Hill will wind up with the Orioles, perhaps as early as next week. The Orioles will likely give up a player to be named, who could be contingent on Hill's success in Baltimore...MORE

IT'S OFFICIAL, CUBS ADD BAKO (Cubs.com)
The Cubs signed catcher Paul Bako, who had been with the Reds, to a one-year, $725,000 contract. The deal was done a month ago, but Bako had to wait for the Cubs to open a roster spot before it was made official. Bako was no longer a fit for Cincinnati with the emergence of Ryan Hanigan and following the trade for veteran Ramon Hernandez...MORE

FOGG LANDS IN COLORADO (ColoradoRockies.com)
Rockies signed RHP Josh Fogg to a minor league contract and invited him to spring training. With Jeff Francis potentially starting the year on the DL, there could be room for Fogg at the back of the rotation. Fogg, 32, went 10-9 with a 4.94 ERA in 2007 and won several matchups with big-name pitchers. Fogg signed with the Reds last season and went 2-7 with a 7.58 ERA in 22 games, including 14 starts...MORE

MLB dodgers, giants, manny ramirez, red sox, jason varitek, brewers, ben sheets, cubs, ken hill, paul bako, rockies, josh fogg

If you aren't a Mixed Martial Arts fan yet, do yourself a favor and watch tonight. You'll see two of the top 5 fighters in the world square off against one another tonight. Both fighters are in their prime and both are champions. B.J. Penn is attempting to become the first fighter in UFC history to hold two world titles at one time. He's already the lightweight champ (155 lbs.) and trying to become the welterweight champion (170 lbs.). This will be an epic fight and will most likely go down as one the best in the history of the UFC.

Welterweight champ Georges St. Pierre (17-2 MMA, 11-2 UFC) vs. Lightweight champ B.J. Penn (13-4-1 MMA, 9-3-1 UFC) - for Welterweight Championship

These two fought once before at UFC 58 with Georges pulling out the decision victory. It could have gone either way in the eyes of many, but St. Pierre proved to be in better shape than Penn, the one knock against him in his career. Penn decided to change his attitude toward fighting after his 28th birthday and rededicated himself to training and endurance. Since dropping down to lightweight, Penn has been unstoppable. He wants to avenge another loss on his record against St. Pierre, who himself is a much better fighter than the one at UFC 58.

(Prediction: B.J. Penn via submission, round 4)

Lyoto Machida (13-0 MMA, 5-0 UFC) vs. Thiago Silva (13-0 MMA, 4-0 UFC)

Two undefeated light heavyweights face off tonight before the main event. This matchup will likely set up one of these two fighters to be the next, next in line for the light heavyweight championship. Machida is a very talented, yet painstakingly boring fighter. That is the biggest con against him, but he is one hell of a fighter and deserves a chance at the title. Fans may not agree because he simply isn't flashy enough. He has victories over B.J. Penn and Rich Franklin. Silva on the other hand is very agressive, not wanting to let his opponents take the fight to a decision with 10 of his victories by knockout or TKO. Silva has victories over James Irvin and Houston Alexander.

(Prediction: Lyoto Machida via decision)

Karo Parisyan (18-5 MMA, 9-3 UFC) vs. Dong Hyun Kim (11-0-1 MMA, 2-0 UFC)

Parisyan is a judo black belt who has won eight of his past 10 fights, all but one going to the cards. Kim is also a judo black belt with a split-decision and TKO in his two UFC victories. Parisyan is likely the less talented of the two fighters, but his desire to re-establish himself in the top of his weight class could propel him to decision victory. But his inability to finish fights does leave the door open for Kim to take him out.

(Prediction: Kim via TKO, round 2)

Nate Diaz (10-2 MMA, 5-0 UFC) vs. Clay Guida (24-9 MMA, 5-3 UFC)

Diaz is the winner of the Ultimate Fighter 5 and is quickly becoming a force in the lightweight division. Guida is the gatekeeper to the division, putting on entertaining fights and likely launching the careers of those he faces to the next level. Diaz has great jiu jitsu skills and is improving as a striker. Guida will try to establish a hectic pace and get Diaz uncomfortable. Diaz will most likely get Guida down on the ground and submit him.

(Prediction: Diaz via submission, round 1)

Stephan Bonnar (11-4 MMA, 5-3 UFC) vs. Jon Jones (7-0 MMA, 1-0 UFC)

Bonnar is attempting to comeback after a serious knee injury that has kept him sidelined for 15 months. Bonnar is most famous for his Ultimate Fighter 1 finale with Forrest Griffin, but he's a serious fighter with serious skils when healthy. Great striker with solid muay thai and jiu jitsu, he should have the edge against Jones. Jones is a solid striker and wrestler, undefeated in MMA, but doesn't have the experience to match with Bonnar. If Bonnar is 100 percent, it's a victory for him.

(Prediction: Bonnar, 2nd round TKO)

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We continue to look back at the best Super Bowl commercials of all-time with the first ever GoDaddy.com girl...

Just For Fun super bowl commercials, godaddy.com girl

A few weeks ago, Shawn Hoffman over at Baseball Prospectus wrote an excellent column that should be considered a must read for any proponent of a baseball salary cap.  In the article, he envisions what a salary cap might look like were one to be implemented, and examines two aspects that no one ever really talks about; a payroll floor, and the difference between local & national revenue.

A salary cap has to have a payroll floor; without it, there's no incentive for an owner with no interest in winning to do anything more than the bare minimum and walk away with a sizeable profit.  The floor usually is about 75% of the cap.  So, given Hoffman's calculations, a cap in 2009 terms would be about $103 million, with a floor of $77 million.  And here's where the problems start:

[F]ourteen teams would have been under the payroll floor, by a total of $251 million. Even discounting the Marlins' $22 million payroll, the other thirteen teams would have had to spend an average of $15 million more just to meet the minimum. Some of those teams might be able to afford it; most wouldn't...had our fictional cap/floor arrangement been instituted last year, the Pirates would have needed to increase their Opening Day payroll by $28 million. Not only would the team have taken a big loss, but Neal Huntington's long-term strategy would have been sabotaged, since the team would have had to sign a number of veterans just to meet the minimum payroll.

Not only would that cause immediate problems for smaller franchises, but the power of the big boys could wreak even more havoc for them down the road:

Now fast forward to 2009. Let's say the Pirates' sales staff runs into major headwinds, with the team struggling and the economy sinking. The team's top line takes a hit, falling $10 million from 2008. The Mets and Yankees, meanwhile, open their new ballparks, and each team increases its local revenue by $50 million. If the twenty-seven other teams are flat, total industry revenues rise by $90 million (not including any appreciation in national media revenue). Forty-five percent of that, of course, goes to the players. So even as the Pirates' purchasing power decreases, the payroll floor actually rises.

The local vs. national revenue argument is one that I don't think people fully appreciate.  Since the NFL derives so much of its income from their national TV contract, it's easy to spread that money evenly and hold the clubs accountable.  But when the Yankees rake in close to $100 million per year in local TV revenue, while smaller clubs struggle to break the $10 million barrier, that's a lot harder to place on an even scale.  I think the small market owners realize that, and that's why they haven't made a more unified push for a cap.

Even lowering the threshold of the luxury tax isn't going to help solve the problem.  Only the Yankees and Tigers exceeded the cap in 2008, and the Tigers just barely crossed the line.  The threshold is so high ($162 million) that it would have to be lowered significantly to have an effect on anyone other than the big 3-4 teams.  Even if you lowered the cap by $30 million, it would only cost the Yankees another $12 million to keep the same payroll.  Since Hank Steinbrenner is already used to paying out $25-30 million in luxury taxes, I doubt this would deter him.  Incidentally, luxury tax revenues do not actually go to the small market clubs; that happens through local revenue sharing, which is a smaller piece of the pie.

The one thing that people can take some solace in, as Hoffman concludes, is baseball's playoff system that evens the playing field greatly for the teams that make it to the post-season.  Consider that, since 1993, MLB has had 10 different World Series winners.  Compare that with an even more ruthlessly capitalistic league, like...say...the English Premier Football league, which has had a grand total of four winners over the same time period, and I think it's far more preferable to have a system like the current one that baseball does.  Besides, having the biggest payroll does not guarantee a winner; ask Hank Steinbrenner how that's worked out over the past eight years.

MLB salary cap, yankees, tigers

Mike DeCourcy of the Sporting News hit the nail on the head when he sounded off on Georgia's firing of Dennis Felton:

You could say it was overdue, because he'd have been fired last March were it not for the Bulldogs' miraculous run through the SEC tournament and into the NCAAs.

And still, "repulsive" fits best because it's obvious Georgia fired Felton Thursday out of fear he'd somehow put together another March miracle and they'd be compelled to keep him another year.

When the colleges tell you -- and the government that might want to tax them -- that they're not running professional sports organizations, how are we supposed to take them seriously when they're firing coaches in midseason?

Felton and erstwhile Alabama coach Mark Gottfried were not accused of anything more untoward than losing too many games, and yet their universities found it necessary to chase them off-campus immediately. 

COMPLETE ARTILCE

College Hoops georgia, georgia bulldogs, dennis felton, mark gottfried

I have made fun of them for years for not having cheerleaders, but COED Magazine has made me acknowledge they do have so sexy fans...

60 SEXY STEELER GIRLS (COED Magazine)

Just For Fun steelers, steelers fans, hot girls

It has been 14 years since Xavier began play as a member of the Atlantic 10.  The Musketeers left now defunct Midwestern Collegiate Conference after 16 seasons.  The thought was that XU needed to play in a higher profile conference, one that was more competitive night in and night out.  The RPI was becoming a major factor in determining at-large bids for the NCAA tournament.  In the MCC it was rare that teams who did not win the conference tournament made it into the big dance.
 
The A-10 had a marquis coach and program in Jon Chaney and his Temple Owls as well as John Calipari and UMass.  The Musketeers were attracted to the idea of being able to recruit along the east coast.  After all, the league had teams in New York City, Philadelphia and Boston.  The league was at its height and was adding Xavier and Dayton in 1995-96.
 
Things have since changed for the once prolific A-10.  Temple and UMass have struggled to win consistently since the departures of their coaches.  The Musketeers and Flyers are now the elite of the A-10.
 
Xavier has compiled 154-59 record in A-10 play.  They have gone 21-9 in the league tournament.  Championships have piled up for Xavier since its inception winning six league titles and four tournament titles.  Their league winning percentage trails only Temple by .005 percent.  The Musketeers should be top dog by seasons end.
 
So has Xavier outgrown the A-10, absolutely not.  A major part of the Musketeers success has been able to recruit along the east coast.  The current roster includes Jason Love (Philadelphia), Terrell Holloway (NYC) and Jamel McLean (Hampton, VA).  There has been a steady flow of talent coming from their opponent’s own backyards.
 
Gonzaga has feasted and flourished playing in the weak West Coast Conference.  The Musketeers have taken a page out of the Zags book by playing a very challenging non-conference schedule.  The day the Musketeers can no longer play home and home series with the likes of a Virginia, Tennessee or Wisconsin then it may be time to move on.
 
Where would the Musketeers go?  There is no room for them, in the 16 team Big East Conference.  Chances are they would have to form a new league with teams from other conferences that are disgruntled with their current league situations.  Schools like Butler, Dayton, St. Louis and Valpo could be likely candidates to break away from their conferences.  That would mean a year or two without an automatic NCAA bid, a tough proposition for those schools defecting.

For the time being there should be no debate about where the Musketeers call home.  There are two adages that Xavier should adhere to if they were to contemplate a move.  One is you don’t mess with success and two the grass isn’t always greener on the other side of the tracks.  The A-10 is what it is and XU has found the right recipe for winning within the league.

College Hoops a-10, atlantic 10, xavier, musketeers, xavier musketeers, john calipari, umass, temple, jon chaney, jason love, terell holloway, jamel mclean, valpo, st. louis, dayton, butler

I saw this email that Lance posted on his blog and thought I'd post it here and give my take as this email epitomizes my dislike of Xavier basketball.

"The biggest reason there is no Xavier talk is that there is no controversy with Xavier.  The players act with class, the coach is as non-controversial as can be, they graduate, the AD is on the same page, and they play as a team.  What is there to discuss?"-From an emailer

Now, some will say, I just hate X because I went to UC and support them. That is partially true. I have a great deal of respect for Xavier's program and Sean Miller is a class act. Unquestionably their fans should be proud. But, it's these same prideful fans that make me always root against X. They have let their recent success go to their head. And, no matter what, they always feel it necessary to bring up Bob Huggins, horse punching, Donald Little, or UC's various other discretions of the PAST. They act as if their players are saintly and above all of that. Then, they also try to defend the A-10 as some  kind of power conference, when it is a mid-major program, with one good team. I heard one X blowhard arguing why a recruit  chose UK over Xavier and I laughed. Because UK is a big-time program, even at their worst. Xavier is not an elite program and are even second fiddle here in town (even when UC is down, UC is still top-dog).

In a national scope (which is what is important for college basketball), Xavier is a virtual unknown. Ask anyone outside of the the tri-state area where Xavier is located and they probably won't even know what Xavier is, and certainly won't know it's Cincinnati. The X fans are so narrow minded, and arrogant, that they cannot realize this or accept it. 

They should just accept it and watch their team play great basketball. But, their fans cannot follow the lead of their classy coach.

College Hoops xavier, cincinnati, xu, uc, xavier musketeers, cincinnati bearcats

We can't look back at the best Super Bowl commercials of all-time w/out Mean Joe Green's Coke commercial (1979):

Just For Fun super bowl commercials, coke, mean joe green