NL Central: Deadline Grades

31. July 2012  - Published by Dan Clasgens

The race is on in the NL Central with the Cincinnati Reds, Pittsburgh Pirates and St. Louis Cardinals vying for the divisional title. All three teams were active leading up to the MLB non-waiver trading deadline. Here’s how I rate each team’s moves:

CINCINNATI REDS
Acquired RP Jonathan Broxton for pitchers Donnie Joseph and J.C. Sulbaran.

--With one of baseball’s best records, the Reds were content with what got them there. The addition of the hard-throwing right hander will strengthen one of MLB’s best bullpens. The return of Joey Votto momentarily will provide a nice lift to the lineup. Don’t rule out more additions before the waiver deadline either…FINAL GRADE: B+

PITTSBURGH PIRATES
Acquired Wandy Rodriguez from Houston for three prospects; Got Travis Snider in trade for Brad Lincoln; Gaby Sanchez and  Kyle Kaminska were picked up for Gorkys Hernandez and the team’s 2013 Competitive Balance Pick;  Casey McGehee was then sent to the Yankees for struggling reliever Chad Qualls.

--It may have lacked splash, but the Pirates’ moved from position of strengths to fill many holes and improved their team overall. They didn’t steal the headlines, but Pittsburgh didn’t mortgage their system either. It remains to be seen if the moves are enough to shift the balance of power in the division, but the improvement is there for this season and beyond…FINAL GRADE: A-

ST. LOUIS CARDINALS

Acquired middle reliever Edward Mujica from the Miami Marlins for prospect IF Zack Cox.

--Mujica will no doubt help the Cardinals’ bullpen, but it won’t help them where they need it most – the rotation. St. Louis is still going to be a factor, yet the deadline deals did little to help their chances…FINAL GRADE: C

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Fantasy Ten Commandments

30. July 2012  - Published by Dan Clasgens

Here's some decent fantasy basics from the guys at FBallNation.com:

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Look Ahead: Carolina Panthers

29. July 2012  - Published by Dan Clasgens

INSIDE THE NUMBERS
After a dismal 2010 campaign, much of which can be accredited to having Jimmy Clausen at quarterback, Steve Smith re-emerged as an elite fantasy wideout last season. He tallied 100 receiving yards and/or a touchdown in 10 of his 16 starts. The fact he played in 16 games was a feat in itself, Smith has played in at least 14 games in each of the last seven seasons. As the year progressed teams began to double and triple team him. With improved surrounding weapons, Smith should be able to find enough openings to make him a top 10 WR again this season.

SCHEDULE
The Panthers play seven teams that finished in the top 16 in terms of fantasy points allowed to running backs in 2011 which spells good news for the team’s ground weapons. Three of the team’s first four games come against divisional foes. The bye week comes in Week 6 and Carolina currently has two games schedule for prime time with at Thursday night tilt vs. the Giants and a Monday night affair at the Eagles on tap. Four of the team’s last four games are on the road. The playoff matchups against the Falcons, at the Chargers, and home with the Raiders are manageable.

STUD
Cam Newton
was disregarded by most owners leading up to his rookie season, but after just one short year he’s risen to the top of fantasy football rankings across the web. Newton starts the preseason at No. 2 on the GSI Cheat Sheet on the heels of a season which he threw for 4,051 yards and 21 touchdowns and garnered another 706 yards and 14 scores on the ground. While it’s reasonable to expect a dip in the rushing totals, an increase in the passing stats and a cut down on the 24 turnovers is also likely.

DUD
Despite proven to be a productive fantasy commodity at times in San Diego, Mike Tolbert could be hard pressed for opportunities in his new uniform. With Newton being a vulture of touches at the goalline and a crowded backfield it remains to be seen where Tolbert will fit in the Panthers’ offense. However, the team signed him for a purpose so he’s worth keeping your eyes on. Some will stretch for him based off name recognition, but he’s nothing more than a late-round stab in deeper formats in our eyes.

SLEEPER
A breakout season could be on tap for third-year wide receiver Brandon LaFell. With the Legedu Naanee experiment officially over in Carolina, LaFell will slide into a starting spot opposite of Steve Smith in the Panthers’ offense. Even if a limited role a year ago, LaFell managed 613 yards and three touchdowns receiving. Targets may be tough to come by, but even if he’s plagued with inconsistency 65 catches for 900 yards and 5 touchdowns are modest projections. View him as a WR4 or WR5 with some nice upside.

NEW ADDITION
Not yet comfortable with its depth at receiver, the Panthers traded for Louis Murphy just before the start of training camp. The former Raider has always had the potential, but had a problem staying on the field. It’s going to take his some time to work into the mix with Carolina, so his draft value is extremely low. However, during the course of the season and beyond he could develop into a worthy option for the Panthers and fantasy owners alike.

POSITION BATTLE
The Carolina backfield has been a head scratcher for the past couple of seasons for fantasy owners as both DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart have shown flashes of brilliance at times while being non-factors on occasion as well. Williams had more touches last year, but Stewart became more a factor in the passing game as he caught 47 balls. If Williams stays healthy he’s the back to grab, but he’s high-end WR3 at best. Stewart value rises if Williams goes down, but still could be a RB3 in his own right. With Tolbert and Newton taking short-yardage touches, but players will post modest scoring numbers.

BENCH BUILDER

Owners can do much worse than Greg Olsen as a TE2 option. His debut season in Carolina wasn’t spectacular as he finished with 45 catches for 540 yards and five touchdowns. However, with Jeremy Shockey no longer in the equation is reasonable to expect an increase in numbers. Olsen has always had the tools and now needs to just find a bit more consistency to become a more viable fantasy option.

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Reds: Who's Hot

28. July 2012  - Published by Dan Clasgens

Some good bit of trends from Lance McAlister of 700 WLW (through Friday 7/27)...

Chapman
vs NL this year
39 games, 43.1 innings, 1 ER, 0.20 ERA
14 hits, 13 BB, 86 K
NL hitters: 14 for 143 (.098)
34 of his last 43 outs have been strikeouts

Simon says
0 ER last 11.0 innings
2 ER last 24.2 innings
4 ER last 37.1 innings
Season: 2-1 1.41 in 38.1 innings
Dusty is trusting him more and more. Friday night he was brought into protect a 3-0 lead. He had appeared in one game the Reds won in his first 15 appearances after he was acquired by the Reds. He has now pitched in five winning games in his last 8 appearances.

Ludwick
Since June 14
.311-.376-.623-.999 in 31 starts and 106 AB.
10 HR, 17 RBI
10 doubles, 1 triple
Reds record: 21-10.

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VOTE: No. 2 Fantasy QB

27. July 2012  - Published by Dan Clasgens

Fantasy Football Frenzy: TE

26. July 2012  - Published by Dan Clasgens

Stefanie Theobald joins me on our latest podcast previewing the 2012 season. We talk TE's in this edition of the Fantasy Football Frenzy...

PODCAST - FANTASY FOOTBALL FRENZY - TE PREVIEW

--Top 5 players at the position
--Draft Strategy
--New Faces, New Places
--Rating the Rookies
--Studs, Duds, and Sleepers

LISTEN NOW | QB  | WR

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Bengals: 2012 Odds

25. July 2012  - Published by Dan Clasgens

Here's how Vegas rates the Bengals off recent odds...

Over/Under Bengals Wins
CINCINNATI (7.5)

As much as I have ragged on Marvin Lewis over the last several years – and believe me, he’s deserved it – the Bengals have won eight or more games six times in his nine years at the helm. Their defense is solid, they run the ball, and if Andy Dalton and A.J. Green can avoid sophomore slumps this team can get over.

Odds to Win the 2013 AFC North Division
Baltimore Ravens 13/10  
Pittsburgh Steelers 6/5  
Cincinnati Bengals 4/1  
Cleveland Browns 25/1

Odds to win the 2013 AFC Championship
Baltimore Ravens 7/1  
Buffalo Bills 25/1  
Cincinnati Bengals 16/1  
Cleveland Browns 75/1  
Denver Broncos 7/1  
Houston Texans 11/2  
Indianapolis Colts 60/1  
Jacksonville Jaguars 75/1  
Kansas City Chiefs 20/1  
Miami Dolphins 25/1  
New England Patriots 3/1  
New York Jets 12/1  
Oakland Raiders 30/1  
Pittsburgh Steelers 7/1  
San Diego Chargers 10/1  
Tennessee Titans 25/1

COMPLETE ODDS (DocSports.com)

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Look Ahead: New England Patriots

24. July 2012  - Published by Dan Clasgens

INSIDE THE NUMBERS
The Patriots tight end duo of Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez combined for 169 catches for 2,237 yards and 24 touchdowns in 2011. Gronkowski emerged as the most elite fantasy option at the position with 21 touchdowns in 19 games (including playoffs) and now has 32 total scores since the start of the 2010 season. Hernandez also is a top five TE option for owners to consider after averaging 11.5 yards per catch. New England used two tight ends or more on 70 percent of their plays and passed to a tight end 40 percent of the time last season.

SCHEDULE
Three of the Patriots first four and four of their first six games come on the road. Conversely, three of their final four contests come at home. They draw the NFC West this year, which aside from the tilt with the 49ers should lead to hefty fantasy numbers. Many have circled their calendars for the Week 5 showdown vs. Denver as another chapter in the epic Brady vs. Manning rivalry. The fantasy playoff matchups of Houston, San Francisco and at Jacksonville could be better, but with Brady and company owners shouldn’t fret.

STUD
After throwing for a career-high 5,235 yards and 39 touchdowns in 2011 Tom Brady could be poised for an even bigger season in 2012 with all of the weapons he has available to him. Arguably the safest pick in fantasy football, Brady threw for multiple scores in 14 of his 16 starts a year ago. Durability is also a great asset for the Patriots’ signal caller. Aside from 2008 when he suffered a season-ending knee injury in Week 1 Brady has started every game since 2002 for New England.

DUD
New England has a long history of signing veterans on the downward spiral of their career and squeezing a last bit of juice out them.  This year’s again addition is former Colts’ running back Joseph Addai. The 29-year old is likely to lose out to some of the team’s younger options and might not even make the team. Addai hasn’t been able to stay healthy in recent years, playing in just 20 games since the start of the 2010 season. During that span he’s scored just five times and he’s averaged over 4.0 yards per carry just once over the last four years.

SLEEPER

Somebody has to replace Benjarvus Green-Ellis and his 25 touchdowns over the past two years and second-year running back Stevan Ridley is the primary candidate to do so. He’s easily the most physical runner in the team’s crowded backfield. Ridley averaged 5.1 yards a carry with 87 attempts for 441 yards and one touchdown as a rookie and is going to see those numbers rise significantly in 2012. The Patriots backfield often provides fantasy headaches, but the potential for 1,000 yards and double-digit touchdown totals are there for Ridley.

NEW ADDITION
True to his word free agent Brandon Lloyd followed Josh McDaniels, who helped resurrect his career in 2010 while in Denver.  McDaniels, now the Patriots’ offensive coordinator, knows how to get the most out of Lloyd. After splitting time between Denver and St. Louis last season, Lloyd will settle in to a New England offense that is loaded with weapons. At best, he will become Brady’s third option in the passing game though with both Gronkowksi and Wes Welker likely to get more targets. There should be enough balls to go around though making him a viable WR2 in most fantasy lineups.

POSITION BATTLE
While Ridley is likely to get the bulk of the short-yardage work and lead the team in carries, it will be interesting to see how Shane Vereen and Danny Woodhead split time working as the change-of-pace back and third-down option. Woodhead has produced decently in recent years, but the Patriots invested a second-round pick in the 2011 draft on Vereen and that suggests that the youngster is going to get every opportunity to succeed.

BENCH BUILDER

Jabar Gaffney will be hard pressed to match 2011 career totals, but landing in New England does bring some familiarity. He played for the Patriots from 2006-08 and under McDaniels in Denver two years ago. Targets will be tough to come by, but the possession receiver should see enough balls to warrant being looked as a WR4 or WR5 in deeper formats. If an injury occurs his value will only rise. You can do much worse with a pick in the latter rounds than the veteran wideout.

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Look Ahead: St. Louis Rams

23. July 2012  - Published by Dan Clasgens

INSIDE THE NUMBERS
Sam Bradford
is entering his third season in the NFL and will have his third different offensive coordinator. After a promising rookie season that saw him throw for 3,512 yards and 18 touchdowns, Bradford took a step back during his sophomore campaign as he limited by injuries. In his 10 starts a year ago Bradford threw as many interceptions (6) as he did touchdowns (6).  During his two-year career and his 26 starts the Rams’ signal caller has eclipsed the 300-yard mark in just three games.

SCHEDULE
St. Louis’ slate is an easy one, but it remains to be seen if they can take advantage of it. Nine of their 16 contests come indoors and they only have one true cold-weather game on tap. Only five of their 16 games are against teams that finished with 10 or more wins a year ago. They only have one prime time game as they host Arizona on Thursday night in Week 5. The fantasy playoff matchups at Buffalo, Vikings and at Tampa Bay in Weeks 14-16 are extremely favorable.

STUD

The most consistent fantasy performer on the Rams is hands down Steven Jackson. The running back has cranked out seven consecutive 1000-yard seasons and has caught at least 40 balls out of the backfield in each of the past four years. He’ll be 29 by time the season gets underway which raises some area of concern, but he will continue to be the focal point of the Rams’ offense. Jackson is a low-end RB1 and is likely to slip to the end of Round 2 into Round 3 on draft day.

DUD
Despite showing great flashes since his days at Missouri, wide receiver Danario Alexander has been unable to shake the injury bug.  His blazing speed and 6-foot-5 frame has made him a favorite sleeper for fantasy owners the past two seasons, but the fact he’s only played in 18 games during that span makes him hard to count on. The team added plenty of depth at the position in the offseason and that coupled with the durability concerns has caused Alexander to no longer be fantasy worthy.

SLEEPER
With Josh McDaniels no longer calling the plays, tight end Lance Kendricks is expected to be a much larger factor in the Rams’ passing attack.  He caught 28 balls for 352 yards during his rookie season, but he is still searching for his first career touchdown. Look for big strides in year two for the young tight end, but with so much depth at the position entering this season fantasy owners are better off to monitor his progress early in the season as a potential waiver wire grab rather than drafting him.

NEW ADDITIONS
Head coach Jeff Fisher has arrived in St. Louis and he brings offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer with him. The duo is expected to change things up and that should lead to the Rams grinding it out more frequently. Despite posting a 142-120 record during his 17-year reign in Tennessee, Fisher led teams only finished as a top 10 scoring offense twice during his tenure.

POSITION BATTLE

The organization completely overhauled its receiver corps during the offseason. Big things are expected from second-round pick Brian Quick, who could quickly emerge as the team team’s top option in the passing game.  Fourth-round pick Chris Givens slid in the draft and could start opposite of Quick with a good camp. Veteran Steve Smith was added and his experience could help him land the starting job early on.  Danny Amendola is a great slot player, but needs to prove he’s 100 percent. The battle for targets is going to be important to watch early on.

BENCH BUILDER

The Rams added Isaiah Pead to serve as Jackson’s primary backup in the running game. Pead has the ability to be a capable passing game weapon and should be the primary kick returner out of the gate. With the team hoping to keep Jackson fresh, expect him to get touches. If Jackson goes down with an injury, Pead would immediately become a fantasy commodity. Jackson owners should be sure to add him as insurance, but any owner could benefit from the depth, especially in PPR formats.

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Latest ADP: Early Rounds

22. July 2012  - Published by Dan Clasgens

Here's what a look at the first three rounds of your fantasy draft might look like...

Rank Player Pos NFL
Team
Age Yrs
Exp.
MFL ADP
1 Arian Foster RB HOU 25 3 1.72
2 LeSean McCoy RB PHI 24 3 2.92
3 Ray Rice RB BAL 25 4 3.25
4 Calvin Johnson WR DET 26 5 4.37
5 Aaron Rodgers QB GB 28 7 4.93
6 Ryan Mathews RB SD 24 2 7.84
7 Chris Johnson RB TEN 26 4 9.25
8 Maurice Jones-Drew RB JAX 27 6 10.21
9 Rob Gronkowski TE NE 23 2 13.80
10 Larry Fitzgerald WR ARI 28 8 13.83
11 Jimmy Graham TE NO 25 2 14.26
12 Darren McFadden RB OAK 24 4 14.34
13 Cam Newton QB CAR 23 1 14.60
14 Tom Brady QB NE 34 12 15.93
15 Drew Brees QB NO 33 11 16.27
16 Matt Forte RB CHI 26 4 17.24
17 Trent Richardson RB CLE 22 R 19.70
18 A.J. Green WR CIN 23 1 19.74
19 Matthew Stafford QB DET 24 3 20.76
20 Andre Johnson WR HOU 31 9 21.90
21 Adrian Peterson RB MIN 27 5 21.90
22 Wes Welker WR NE 31 8 22.50
23 DeMarco Murray RB DAL 24 1 23.09
24 Jamaal Charles RB KC 25 4 24.35
25 Hakeem Nicks WR NYG 24 3 24.36
26 Julio Jones WR ATL 23 1 24.83
27 Marshawn Lynch RB SEA 26 5 25.12
28 Greg Jennings WR GB 28 6 27.23
29 Roddy White WR ATL 30 7 27.41
30 Victor Cruz WR NYG 25 2 29.45
31 Brandon Marshall WR CHI 28 6 31.45
32 Darren Sproles RB NO 29 7 31.76
33 Mike Wallace WR PIT 25 3 34.41
34 Dez Bryant WR DAL 23 2 34.98
35 Jordy Nelson WR GB 27 4 36.86
36 Steven Jackson RB STL 29 8 39.16

LATEST AVERAGE DRAFT POSITION (FFToolBox.com)

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