Look Ahead: Minnesota Vikings

2. September 2012  - Published by Jimmy Dinsmore

INSIDE THE NUMBERS
The passing game was completely inept for Minnesota, on both sides of the ball. They ranked 28th in passing and 26th on defense against the pass. So, in order for them to be successful, the Vikes will need to see big improvement in both of these areas. A lot of that will depend on whether Christian Ponder can develop into a consistent quarterback, who more manages the game than anything. And they’ll need Adrian Peterson to return from his torn ACL, so they can ground and pound opponents.

SCHEDULE
The Vikings have the 7th toughest schedule in the NFL according to Vegas oddsmakers with seven quality opponents on the schedule including a Week 16 game versus Houston. In fact, be aware of the difficulty down the stretch of the Viking schedule. After their Week 10 bye, they play the Bears twice, Green Bay twice, and Houston. So, this could affect your fantasy squad in the playoffs.

STUD
Percy Harvin
is quietly one of the most dynamic, exciting playmakers in the NFL. And, great news for fantasy owners, his ADP falls into the fourth round area of 12-team leagues. That’s amazing considering that Harvin had 87 catches, almost 1,000 yards receiving and 6 TDs. Doesn’t sound quite like WR1 stuff right? Okay, factor in 52 rushes for 345 yards and 2 TDs and you’re getting there, right? Okay, if your league gives individual points for special teams, then Harvin threw in another TD on returns. That’s 9 total TDs, 1,300 combined yards and Harvin is a fantasy stud. I like him as a WR1. I like him so much that I’ve drafted him as such in two of my big fantasy leagues.

DUD
Okay, before I get called an idiot (I’m used to it) for putting Adrian Peterson down here, let me explain myself. Peterson tore his ACL on Christmas Eve. Even if you believe that Peterson is an athletic freak (and it’s hard to argue that), the stats are not good for players in their first year back from torn ACLs. So, I’m skeptical of all this AP will be ready for week 1 talk. And I’m skeptical that AP can put up those juicy fantasy numbers that he’s always put up, this year. All of this being said, if Peterson slips down your draft board, you have to take him, but I feel uneasy taking him as my RB1.

SLEEPER
In the year of the tight end, everyone is looking for the next Rob Gronkowski. Kyle Rudolph, and his 6’6” frame just might be that guy. Well, maybe not Gronk good, but I expect Rudolph to be an excellent fantasy tight end. As owners scramble to grab Gronk, Gates, Graham, Hernandez, hold back, grab the RB depth, and wait on your tight end. Choosing Rudolph late could be a huge impactful move for your fantasy squad.

NEW ADDITIONS
(Insert editorial opinion here) The Bengals were fools for not writing a decent paycheck for Jerome Simpson. They coached him, groomed him, and saw the fruits of those labors finally show up last season. And then they let him walk away and sign with the Vikings. What a nice addition for Minnesota. Simpson will be a great compliment alongside Harvin. He had 50 catches for 700+ last year. This year, I expect about those same numbers, but maybe more than the 4 TD total from last year. Now, remember, Simpson is suspended the first three games of the season, so that’s a decent chunk of your fantasy schedule and drops Simpson’s value a decent amount.

POSITION BATTLE

With Simpson out the first three games, the Vikings will need to find another WR to fill-in for him. The battle between Michael Jenkins and Devin Aromashadu is the most compelling, but has little effect for fantasy squads as neither are really worth drafting except in extremely deep leagues.

BENCH BUILDER
In the four games he started in Peterson’s absence, Toby Gerhardt proved to be a serviceable running back. He scored 3 TDs including two receiving, and went over the 100 yard rushing mark in week 16. With Peterson’s health a question mark, Gerhardt is an absolute must handcuff if you do draft AP, and a nice bench builder in all leagues, because regardless, Peterson won’t have nearly the touches he had last year, and those remnant touches will fall to Gerhardt.

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Look Ahead: Philadelphia Eagles

1. September 2012  - Published by Jimmy Dinsmore

INSIDE THE NUMBERS
13 is a big number. That’s the number of games Michael Vick played last year. He had injured ribs that kept him out of three games, and sustained another rib injury in the preseason (UGH!). The other number for Vick is 1, the loneliest number. That’s the number of rushing TDs Vick had last year compared to 9 in 2010. That number has to go up to about 5 in order to make Vick a top 10 QB in fantasy. There’s no reason think that he won’t get back to more rushing TDs. And yes, assume that Vick will miss a few games due to injuries. The other number to take note of is 3,303. That’s the number of passing yards Vick had last year, a career high for him, in only 13 games. So, if you want a big payoff for a guy whose fantasy stock has fallen, grab Vick over the likes of Phillip Rivers or Big Ben, hold your breath, and watch it pay off.

SCHEDULE
The Eagles have a tough road to go. They have the 7th most difficult in the NFL. After a friendly week 1 matchup against the Browns, their schedule gets tough until their bye in Week 7. Down the stretch, during fantasy playoff time, the Eagles schedule lightens up a little, but prepared to play matchups for those Eagles you draft.

STUD
Lesean McCoy
is considered one of the top three fantasy players in the draft, and rightfully so. He had 17 rushing touchdowns, and 3 more receiving TDs. He rushed for 1,300 yards, and a caught 48 passes. He was relentless in fantasy and likely vaulted his owners to the playoffs. Now, McCoy will probably see a drop in those 17 TDs if Vick gets more than the 1 rushing TD he had last year, but even without those TDs, Shady is a guy who can carry your fantasy squad and justifies, safely, his top of the draft selection.

DUD
Now that he’s gotten his paycheck, perhaps Desean Jackson shouldn’t be listed here as a dud, but after only 58 catches and 4 TDs last year, Jackson let a lot of his owners down. DJax openly said that because of his contract dispute, he didn’t give it his all. That speaks volumes about him, and should give pause to owners. You need consistency and effort from your fantasy players. Now, Jackson is still a guy who can be huge for your squad, so definitely still consider him for your squad, but look to him as your WR2, not as the WR1 that will carry your squad.

SLEEPER
If you draft Vick, it might be wise to snag Nick Foles, who won the  backup quarterback job. Foles impressed in the preseason. Stash him on your bench so that when that inevitable Vick injury shows up, you’re ready to put him into the lineup. Foles is more of a pocket passer so won’t give the rushing yards that Vick does. If you’re in a league that is really deep or a keeper format, Foles makes for a nice late-round sleeper, even if you don’t draft Vick.
 
NEW ADDITIONS
Last year, the Eagles were one of the most active teams in the offseason, assembling a “dream team”, that more or less, disappointed. So the Eagles were much more subdued in their activity this year. They acquired LB Demeco Ryans from the Houston Texans. He’ll anchor the middle of the field for the Eagles defense. In preseason, this defense looked impressive; great scheming, aggressive interior line and mobile linebackers. The fantasy impact of this is an Eagles defense that is worthy of being one of the first D/ST drafted.

POSITION BATTLE
There are few impactful position battles going on. The only one of interest is who will backup McCoy at running back. Dion Lewis and rookie Chris Polk fought it out in the preseason, and not much has been decided. Polk looked good in the preseason, and would be the one to select from a fantasy perspective. Polk really shouldn’t be drafted, unless you have a deep bench, and then only in dynasty/keeper formats.

BENCH BUILDER
Brent Celek
is a tight end who’s climbed up draft boards this season. He had 62 catches for 811 yards and five TDs. Those are pretty solid numbers from the tight end position. However, Celek’s role in the Eagles offense is primarily as a blocker, and Vick doesn’t throw the TD nearly enough to warrant making Celek your starting fantasy tight end. He’s a solid backup in leagues where tight ends must be taken, and he’s a guy who can fill in on bye weeks. But, since the tight end spot is deep with talent, let others take Celek early.

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Look Ahead: Buffalo Bills

31. August 2012  - Published by Dan Clasgens

INSIDE THE NUMBERS
Over the past two seasons Stevie Johnson has pulled in 158 catches for 2,077 yards and 17 touchdowns, emerging as a stellar fantasy option. Cleary the number one option in the Bills’ passing attack, Johnson was targeted 135 times in 2011. He is still a bit underrated and should provide nice early mid-round value while making for a solid fantasy WR2.

SCHEDULE
Buffalo’s slate of games has some fantasy appeal, particularly down the stretch of the season. Starting in Week 11 they play Miami, at Indianapolis, Jacksonville and then follow it up with fantasy playoff matchups against St. Louis, Seattle, and at Miami. Expect a strong finish for most of the team’s fantasy producers.

STUD

Before breaking his leg in Week 11 a year ago Fred Jackson was one of fantasy football’s top producers at running back. Through 10 games he tallied 1,376 total yards and six touchdowns. Over the past three seasons he’s eclipsed 3,800 total yards while making 15 trips to the end zone. At 31, he may start to decline but entering 2012 he still remains the best fantasy option in a Bills’ uniform.

DUD

During the first half of 2011 Ryan Fitzpatrick was amongst the top producers at the quarterback position as he threw for 1,739 yards, 14 touchdowns and just seven interceptions, including nine TD passes in the first three games of the year. However, the second half didn’t prove as friendly as he tossed 10 touchdowns and was picked off 16 times, finishing with a league-high 23 interceptions.

SLEEPER

After Jackson went down in Week 10, CJ Spiller finally showed us a glimpse of what he was capable of and started to deliver on Buffalo’s investment. In the team’s last five games he compiled 563 total yards and five touchdowns while averaging 5.6 yards per carry. With Jackson at full health, Spiller will being splitting time but should still provide good enough value to be looked at as a stellar flex option.

NEW ADDITIONS
Looking to vastly improve their defense, Buffalo made a huge splash this offseason by adding Mario Williams and Mark Anderson to their defensive front.  The team ranked 25th in the league against the pass last season, but if they can get the pass rush they invested so heavily in expect a drastic improvement. The unit should be considered a top fantasy option.

POSITION BATTLE
While Johnson is the clear No. 1 option at receiver, there could still be additional value if either Donald Jones or David Nelson could emerge in the passing game. Both players were limited by injuries a year ago and posses limited upside. Jones can stretch the field deep while Nelson size and skill set make him an intriguing late-round option.

BENCH BUILDER
Scott Chandler
emerged as a legitimate fantasy option at tight end a year ago as he caught 38 balls for 389 yards and six touchdowns after being a relatively unknown name by owners prior to the season. He may not be worth drafting in most formats, but could be a great waiver wire as bye week filler or injury replacement as he should build on his 2011 numbers.

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Look Ahead: Tampa Bay Bucs

30. August 2012  - Published by Jimmy Dinsmore

INSIDE THE NUMBERS
The running game was the bane of Tampa’s existence last season. They couldn’t run the ball, nor could they stop anyone from running against them. They ranked 30th in rushing yards per game, averaging only 91.1 YPG. That is abysmal. Plus their rushing defense was dead last versus the run yielding 156.1 YPG. Again, abysmal. So, with that in mind, the Bucs, with a new head coach in Greg Shiano, bring a new scheme and new mindset. Whether that means improvement on the field remains to be seen, but there’s nowhere to go but up when it comes to the Bucs rushing game.

SCHEDULE
The Buccaneers have one of the easiest schedules in football with games vs. the AFC West opponents and the NFC East teams. The Bucs have a great fantasy playoff matchup down the stretch. In Week 15 & 16 they play New Orleans and St. Louis collectively. If you have their offensive players during those pivotal weeks, you could be in for a treat, and perhaps a championship!

STUD
Doug Martin
was drafted in the first round of the draft, after ownership saw enough out of LeGarrette Blount to know that they needed a more dynamic back. It remains to be seen, if the limited performance of Martin in the preseason is enough to give fantasy owners confidence to draft the former Boise St. running back as a starter. All indications point to Martin being a dual threat, multiple-down running back for Tampa. He has pass-catching skills and the ability to the hit the gaps. Draft Martin as a RB2 as a high payoff type of guy. If you can grab him as a RB3 in a keeper/dynasty league, that’s even more value.

DUD
Former stud tight end, Dallas Clark, signed with the Bucs in the offseason. Could this be another target for Josh Freeman? Sure. Absolutely. And Clark is an improvement over Kellen Winslow who underperformed for the Bucs year after year. But, this is not the Manning-to-Clark tight end of the past. Make sure you keep any expectations you have for Clark at a minimum. With the tight end field so rich with talent, Clark really isn’t much a viable fantasy option at this point.

SLEEPER
This is a make or break year for Josh Freeman. He’s never had that breakout year, and I likely would’ve put him in this same sleeper category last year, and would’ve been wrong. But this year, is the year (probably) for Freeman. Ownership has surrounded him with more offensive weapons than he’s had in his tenure under center. Freeman threw for 3,500 yards last year, but also threw 22 INTs and only 16 TDs. We will all be expecting the same type of passing numbers, with about 7-10 more TDs and fewer INTs in order for him to pay off for your fantasy squad.

NEW ADDITIONS
Tampa opened up their wallets and invested in two major offensive pieces this offseason. Carl Nicks was widely considered the best free agent offensive lineman on the market and signed with Tampa. Don’t underestimate the importance of the addition of Nicks to the running game and to the protection of Freeman. And, looking to alleviate the pressure Mike Williams felt as a number one receiver, the Bucs brought in Vincent Jackson to take over that role. Jackson should excel in Tampa’s offense. Look for more than 1,000 yards, 70+ catches and close to 10 TDs from Jackson, and pencil him in as a WR1 in deeper leagues and a sure-fire WR2 in smaller leagues.

POSITION BATTLE
Martin and LeGarrette Blount have battled it out in preseason for the starting role in Shiano’s new pro-style offense. That’s a vital role that should get plenty of touches. It appears as though Martin has secured the starting role having started the all-important third preseason game. Additionally, Blount proved down the stretch last year that he is too inconsistent and fumble prone. Martin will get the bulk of the touches in this battle, regardless of who starts. Don’t expect a ton from Blount, but maybe handcuff him to Martin, should you draft him.

BENCH BUILDER
Mike Williams
broke a lot of hearts last year. He went from 11 TDs in 2010 to 3 TDs last season. That is a gut wrenching drop for fantasy owners who drafted Williams, expecting to get a solid WR2. Williams now has a veteran in Vincent Jackson opposite side of him, who should help get softer coverage for Williams. This means that Williams has to see an uptick in his production this year. He’s had 65 receptions each of his two seasons, so that’s about the number to expect for him. But fantasy owners should also see about 5-6 TDs from him, making Williams a nice bench player for your squad. Don’t invest too much, but stash him away and hope for the best.

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Look Ahead: Washington Redskins

30. August 2012  - Published by Jimmy Dinsmore

INSIDE THE NUMBERS
The Washington Redskins were truly an enigma last year. They were a squad who lacked star power on offense and had a quarterback situation in flux and a backfield that was a crowded mess.The Redskins believe they’ve cleared up the quarterback situation by drafting Robert Griffin III in the April draft, but their RB situation remains muddled to say the least. Last year their entire team rushed for only eight TDs and barely averaged 100 yards per game. It was good for the 25th best rushing attack. Whether this situation is better or not remains to be seen, and anyone who’s followed fantasy football long enough knows that head coach Mike Shanahan is generally a fantasy RB killer. So questions remain within the Beltway and for your fantasy squad as far as the running game goes.

SCHEDULE
The Redskins will benefit from one of the easier schedules in the NFL. Their combined opponents have a .488 winning percentage from last year and they were presented with the 24th ranked schedule this year. The Redskins don’t play any of their NFC East foes until after their bye in Week 10, so enjoy a nice early season ride with them.

STUD
The Redskins traded up in April’s draft to acquire what they believe to be is their quarterback of the future in Robert Griffin III. Drafting an NFL quarterback and starting him in the first year is always a crap shoot, RG3 will undoubtedly have some growing pains. But many thought the same about Cam Newton last year, and RG3 has a lot of similarities to Newton. I would not count on Griffin to be a QB1 this year, but in dynasty/keeper leagues he has tremendous upside. His ceiling and long term value as a potential stud are very high. This year, keep your expectations low, draft him as a QB2 and hope to catch lightning in a bottle, like Newton owners did last year.

DUD
Tim Hightower
came in as a big free agent signing last year. Many fantasy owners drafted him as their RB2 and lived to regret that decision. Make sure you learn from history and avoid Hightower, regardless of the round. He is not a viable fantasy running back and Shanahan’s presence only compounds that more.

SLEEPER
Provided he can give up his recreational activities that seem to land him on the failed drug test list, Fred Davis can be a super sleeper for the Redskins and for your fantasy squad. In a 12-team league, he’s a starting tight end. And in all leagues, he’s worthy of being drafted and can be counted on for 3-5 catches per game and about 6-7 TDs. The weapons that were added only increase Davis’ value further.

NEW ADDITION
Pierre Garcon
was one of the big offseason free agent signings for the Redskins. And it was a nice addition to the team. He can line up opposite Santana Moss and give the Redskins a real weapon for RG3 to throw to. Last season Garcon caught 70 passes for 947 yards and 6 TDs with an awful quarterback throwing to him in Indy. He and RG3 have established a clear repoire already and look for Garcon to improve upon last year’s stats, gaining 1,000 yards and maybe even increasing his number of touchdowns.

POSITION BATTLE

I want to state it again, and put it in all caps for emphasis: MIKE SHANAHAN HATES FANTASY FOOTBALL OWNERS. Case in point, the mess that is the Redskins backfield. It already showed in preseason, where Roy Helu came in as the expected starter. Helu has been dinged up and as such Shanahan gave some touches to Evan Royster, another one of his darlings from last year. Then, out of nowhere comes Alfred Morris, the late-round rookie, who’s climbing up draft boards after an impressive preseason performance. The fact is, depth chart means nothing in Washington. Starting means nothing under Shanahan. Fantasy owners are advised to steer clear of any of these RBs. If you must draft some, don’t count on them as anything more than RB3 or bye-week fill ins. Helu has the most upside of the bunch followed by Morris and then Royster. Personally, I’m going to pass on Redskin running backs and let my competition inherit that headache.

BENCH BUILDER
Santana Moss
will likely slip far down your draft board. You’ll be into the middle rounds and likely ask, hey, is Santana Moss still there? And the answer will be yes. Take that moment to enjoy grabbing someone like Moss. No longer a WR1 or even a WR2, Moss is a great option for your bench. RG3 will look to his clean route running and veteran savvy to help him. I expect some improvement over Moss’ pedestrian numbers last year. Somewhere in the ballpark of 600 yards and about 6 TDs makes Moss a nice bench holder for your squad.

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Look Ahead: Seattle Seahawks

29. August 2012  - Published by Jimmy Dinsmore

INSIDE THE NUMBERS
Don’t ever be one of those fantasy owners that gives too much credibility to the preseason. If you do, then you’d think the Seattle Seahawks are Super Bowl contenders and an offensive juggernaut (which they’re NOT). Through week 3 of the preseason, the Seahawks are the top-ranked offense, averaging 33.7 points per game. Last year they were the 21st overall offensive squad. So then, the truth probably lies somewhere in the middle for this year’s squad. Offensive improvement is in store, but expect the Hawks to move into the teens in overall offensive ranking.

SCHEDULE
Seattle has the 11th most difficult in the NFL, according to Vegas. With the stout San Francisco defense on their schedule twice, that doesn’t bode well for the Seahawk offense. They also face the entire AFC East and NFC North and even have to face the Dallas Cowboys in Week 2. So, it will be a tough road to tow for their offense, but many of these same opponents, as well as two against St. Louis and two against Arizona, make the Seahawk defense an attractive option.

STUD
Marshawn Lynch
is quietly one of the most prolific running backs in the NFL. Last year, Lynch went into Beast Mode and put up 1,200 yards rushing, 12 TDs and even had 28 catches as well. That’s good enough for RB1 status. With some off-season legal issues with Lynch, and having just signed a nice big contract, will Lynch still perform at stud level? I expect so, and with other offensive upgrades, Lynch will have less defenses scheming against him.

DUD
Hopefully you’re not one of those fantasy owners that’s attracted to big names, like bugs are to a zapper. If so, then look away. The Seahawks signed Terrell Owens to some fanfare this offseason. Some were professing this is his big break. And others saw through it. If you haven’t had your draft yet, avoid TO at all costs. Seattle cut him and he may or may not catch on with another team. He has no fantasy value. Now or ever.

SLEEPER
The Seahawks drafted running back Robert Turbin in the fourth round this year. And, Turbin has proven his worth in the preseason. Thus far he’s rushed for 151 yards and a touchdown averaging 4.4 yards per carry. This means Turbin has solidified his role as Lynch’s backup, and also warrants being drafted in almost all leagues, and definitely as a Lynch handcuff. Should Lynch get suspended or injured, Turbin is someone to consider starting every week and in keeper/dynasty leagues, Turbin has a lot of upside.

NEW ADDITIONS
The Seahawks signed another veteran receiver, who comes with much less fanfare. Braylon Edwards arrived to Seahawks camp as someone who may not win a job. Edwards has survived the cuts and finds himself as a viable fantasy option in deeper leagues, and as a bye-week replacement. If Sidney Rice continues to have health issues, Edwards could make a sneaky play for your fantasy squad.

POSITION BATTLE
The Seahawks opened their checkbooks and paid Matt Flynn to come be the quarterback of the future. His only apparent competition for the job was Tavaris Jackson, who has now been shipped off to Buffalo. Little did fantasy owners or most experts see rookie Russell Wilson as the man who would beat out Flynn for the job under center. But with his preseason performance, that’s what appears to have happened in the Pacific Northwest. The 5’11” QB threw for 464 yards and 5 TDs in the preseason and scrambled all over the place for another 150 yards rushing. Meanwhile Flynn was quite pedestrian 102 passing yards and no TDs. It was Flynn’s job to lose, and that’s what he did. Wilson is rising up draft boards and is an intriguing fantasy player, especially in dynasty/keeper formats. I’m still not sold on Wilson and will likely recommend not reaching for him based on two preseason games. Consider Wilson a high risk/high reward guy. Meanwhile Flynn is someone to not draft, but keep on a watch list as a waiver wire snatch should Wilson struggle. If you’re in an especially deep league where you can have a big bench, Lynch would be a decent handcuff grab for those who take the chance on Wilson.

BENCH BUILDER
Zach Miller
is an uninspiring fantasy tight end. More hype than anything else, Miller disappoints more times than not. But, in a league where you have to draft and start a tight end, you can do worse than Miller as your bye-week fill in at the tight end position. Just don’t expect too much from him and he will be fine on your bench. The equally-overrated Kellen Winslow is on the squad too, and you can almost flip a coin as to which of these guys you’ll want to disappoint your squad, and draft late in your draft (if you must).

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Look Ahead: Oakland Raiders

29. August 2012  - Published by Dan Clasgens

INSIDE THE NUMBERS
After sitting on his couch for the first part of last season, Carson Palmer found himself thrown into the Raiders’ starting spot following a mid-season trade. Being a bit rusty, he responded by completing 199/328 passes for 2,753 yards with 13 TD’s and 16 interceptions. That gives him 36 picks over the past two seasons to go along with 39 touchdowns. He’s going to turn the ball over, but he’s still great QB2 value.

SCHEDULE
The Raiders have drawn the AFC North and NFC South to go along with their eight divisional games which makes for a tough slate. Their two extra games though were friendly draws with Miami and Jacksonville filling things out. Three straight home games in Weeks 13-15 should help provide some late-season momentum.

STUD
If he can play in all 16 games Darren McFadden could prove to be fantasy football’s top running back, but that is a big if.  McFadden has never played in more than 13 during his brief career and over his four years he has now missed 19 games. Still he has averaged 88.5 rush yards and 33.0 receiving yards over his last 20 starts with 15 total touchdowns making him a top 5 fantasy RB regardless of the injury history.

DUD
Jacoby Ford
has flashed moments of brilliance during his time as a Raider, but like so many others are this roster he has been able to stay healthy enough to stay on the football field. He’s a dangerous playmaker who averages 17.0 yards per catch as a pro, but he’s simply too inconsistent to be counted on. Already hobbled by a preseason foot injury, owners are best served to look elsewhere.

SLEEPERS
Like Ford, fellow wideouts Denarius Moore and Darrius Heyward-Bey have also battled some early 2012 injuries. Both are hopeful to be ready for Week 1. Moore gave us flashes of what he is capable of as a rookie as he averaged 18.7 ypc while pulling 33 catches for 618 yards and five touchdowns. Heyward-Bey enjoyed his best season as a pro in 2011 and if he can stay on the field he could top those numbers in 2012.

NEW ADDITION

After seeing Michael Bush leave via free agency the Raiders moved to sign running back Mike Goodson. The former Panther should be able to fill the short-yardage role and is expected to get action at the goalline. A must have handcuff for McFadden owners, Goodson also presents value in deeper formats as a fantasy reserve who should be considered by all owners.

POSITION BATTLE
The Raiders revolving door at tight end has left Brandon Myers and David Ausberry as the top two players on the team’s depth chart.  Neither player is expected to be huge assets in the passing game. Myers is expected to start, but he only has 32 catches for 250 yards and zero touchdowns during his three-year NFL career. Owners need to stay away from this situation altogether.

BENCH BUILDER
Limited to just 10 carries during his 2011 rookie campaign, Taiwan Jones is off of many owners radars entering this season. The former Easter Washington speedster possesses remarkable speed and will likely have a bigger role in 2012. He makes for nice lottery ticket late in drafts that if things break right could prove to pay big dividends by season’s end.

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Look Ahead: Kansas City Chiefs

28. August 2012  - Published by Dan Clasgens

INSIDE THE NUMBERS
Wide receiver Dwayne Bowe went from 15 touchdowns in 2010 to scoring just five times last season. While some of that can be attributed to injuries within the offense, Bowe still lacked the big-play ability he displayed just a year earlier.  He still managed nine more receptions and only three less yards than he did over the previous season. He’s a decent WR2, but owners should expect numbers somewhere in the middle.

SCHEDULE
The first five games are not an easy slate to start off against and the Chiefs will have little margin for error. The fantasy playoffs look promising though for owners that will look to utilize Chiefs as they play at Cleveland, at Oakland and at home to Indianapolis in Weeks 14-16.

STUD
Before suffering an ACL injury two weeks into the 2011 season Jamal Charles was one of the most coveted players by fantasy owners.  He averaged 6.4 yards per carry in 2010 while nearly topping 2,000 total yards of offense and appears to be at 100 percent entering 2012. He’s sliding into Round 2 of most drafts and based on upside could prove to be one of fantasy’s great values in the year ahead.

DUD
After a disappointing rookie season, the Chiefs are hoping for big things from Jonathan Baldwin entering his sophomore campaign. He missed the first six games a year ago with a thumb injury and by time returned the rest of the offense was so banged up Baldwin could never find his groove. The talent is there, but he’s still too raw and with the competition high for limited passing targets his ceiling is limited.

SLEEPER
Matt Cassel
had a terrible 2011 campaign that was shortened by seven games due to a broken hand. However, in 2010 he threw a career-high 27 touchdowns for Kansas City. If he can stay healthy there are enough weapons surrounding him to suggest he could have a huge bounce back. The team’s conservative play calling still makes him a fantasy backup, but he could be a much better one than most expect.

NEW ADDITION

A year removed from the Madden Cover jinx Peyton Hillis looks for a fresh start in Kansas City. He’ll have a tough time getting a big workload with Charles healthy, but Hillis still figures to be used at the goalline and in short-yardage situations and is a more than capable receiver out of the backfield. Hillis is a great flex option and a low-end RB2 option in PPR formats.

POSITION BATTLE
It will be interesting to see how the tight end position evolves for the Chiefs as Tony Moeaki and Kevin Boss will battle it out for playing time. Both have shown flashes during their career to suggest they could be a worth fantasy contributor. However, with a near split expected it’s hard to envision either them being anything more than waiver wire fodder and bye week fillers.

BENCH BUILDER
With the offense is disarray last season, the versatile Dexter McCluster quietly put up some decent numbers.  Playing in hybrid role as a RB/WR he had 328 receiving yards on 46 catches and 521 yards on the ground on 102 carries.  He is going to continue to be used in Kansas City’s offense in this manner in the year ahead and if he’s running back eligible in your league he’s worth stashing, especially in PPR formats.

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Look Ahead: Indianapolis Colts

28. August 2012  - Published by Dan Clasgens

INSIDE THE NUMBERS
Playing without a true quarterback in 2011 Colts’ wide receiver Reggie Wayne only mustered 75 receptions for 960 yards, his lowest output since 2003.  It broke a span of five straight seasons in which Wayne has tallied at least 1,145 yards receiving. The most impressive number he’s produced though may be the fact he’s started in all 16 games for Indy in each of the last nine seasons.

SCHEDULE
Indianapolis ranks dead in the middle on strength of schedule, but for a young team there are no easy opponents. Opening at Chicago isn’t a great scenario, but home matchups against Minnesota and Jacksonville followed by a bye week is a nice way for Luck and company to ease into things. Going against the Texans twice, the AFC East, and NFC North wasn’t the best of draws though.

STUD
The Colts lack a true fantasy stud, but Donald Brown has the best chance of anybody to come close to that this season. The multi-talented running back is capable of hitting the holes and breaking long plays and is a threat catching the ball out of the backfield. After showing doses of brilliance in 2011, he’s going to get most of the looks with Joseph Addai out of the mix and is providing great RB2 value in the middle rounds of drafts.

DUD
Had I written this preview a month ago I would have had Austin Collie under my sleeper category for sure as he was really developing nicely in the Colts’ new offense, but then the preseason concussion came. It is his fourth one. Though he’s insisting that he’s going to make back onto the football field soon, I’m not holding my breath. Avoid him altogether.

SLEEPER

Though I can’t endorse rookie Coby Fleener as reliable TE1 option right out of the gate, I am a bit enamored by his upside. He possesses great skill sets to be successful in this league and you can’t replace the time he’s had and the chemistry he has developed playing with Andrew Luck, his former teammate at Stanford.

NEW ADDITION

After an amazing decade plus run the Colts had with Peyton Manning, they now have the good fortune to replace him Andrew Luck as their starting quarterback. He may be the best QB to come out of college since Manning. Luck is ready to produce right now and he is going to fare better than most on banking on out of the gate. Look for plenty of garbage time points and near QB1 numbers in 2012.

POSITION BATTLE

Though I expect Brown to see the bulk of the workload it’s going to be interesting to see how Vick Ballard, Mewelde Moore and Delone Carter work into the mix. Expect Ballard to be used in short-yardage and perhaps goalline situations where Moore will be utilized more as a change-of-pace, third-down type of runner.

BENCH BUILDER
Donnie Avery
isn’t a great talent, but Collie’s concussions flaring up and the team so thin at the position he could sneak into a WR2 role to start the season. He isn’t worth drafting in most leagues, but in deeper formats where a fifth or sixth receiver and beyond are placed on your roster he has some upside.

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Look Ahead: Cincinnati

23. August 2012  - Published by Jimmy Dinsmore

INSIDE THE NUMBERS
On paper the Bengals offense looks pedestrian. They ranked 20th in passing and 19th in rushing last year. But all of that was with a rookie quarterback in Andy Dalton, a rookie wide receiver in AJ Green, and a new offensive coordinator in Jay Gruden. Despite all of that, this trio seemed to click and expect an improvement on these rankings as they all enter a second year together and get more comfortable with everything. Think of Dalton as a solid backup fantasy quarterback, but nothing more than that.

SCHEDULE
The Bengals will face an uphill battle in their schedule this season. They have the 14th most difficult schedule in the NFL, and face the entire NFC East as well as games against the AFC West, including Carson Palmer’s return to Paul Brown Stadium as a Raider. Both Manning brothers also come to PBS too.

STUD
AJ Green
is one of the most exciting and talented receivers to don the striped helmet and is one of the most elite receivers in all of football. From a fantasy perspective, he is a top-ten WR. He had 65 catches for 1,057 yards and 7 TDs, as a rookie, with a rookie QB and a rookie offensive coordinator. So the sky is the limit. Look for more catches, more yards and more TDs from Green this year and safely draft him as your WR1 in all formats. The only concern with Green is that there is little proven talent around him, and he will be facing a lot of double teams. Green is talented enough to handle that however.

DUD
Bernard Scott
is a guy some people think is due for a breakout. He is behind Benjarvus Green-Ellis on the depth chart. Scott has showed an occasional flash but I think it’s a make or break year for him, and I don’t see him doing anything more than what he’s already done. Scott is not a viable fantasy option, even as a handcuff to Green-Ellis. In fact, I think Brian Leonard is the better option as Green-Ellis’ backup, especially in Gruden’s system.

SLEEPER
Brandon Tate
is currently slated to be the other starting WR alongside Green. Tate has potential and will benefit from likely double teams on Green. Tate will have tough competition through the rest of preseason, but considering what the departed Jerome Simpson did last year, there’s no reason to think that Tate can’t produce decent fantasy numbers and be considered a bench player, bye-week filler for your fantasy squad.

NEW ADDITIONS
Bringing in someone from New England is always a good move. BenJarvus Green-Ellis signed with the Bengals to be their featured back, after the team chose not to resign Cedric Benson. Green-Ellis is quietly one of the most business-like running backs in the NFL. An unsung hero, the type of guy a fantasy owner can count on. Back to back double digit TDs make fantasy owners happy. In PPR formats, Green-Ellis has less value as he’s never shown much as a receiver out of the backfield, but I anticipate numbers similar to his 2010 campaign in New England, which equaled 1,000 yards rushing and 13 TDs. That is good enough to make the Law Firm worthy of a RB2 spot on your fantasy squad.

POSITION BATTLE
The real battle lies at wide receiver. Who will step up as the #2 and slot receiver? After cutting Jordan Shipley, there’s nothing resolved. Tate is on track for some significant playing time and has the inside track to line up opposite Green. In the mix as well is Andrew Hawkins and rookie Mohamed Sanu. Hawkins is the player to watch. He could be used like the Saints use Darren Sproles. His size and cutting ability makes him shifty enough to be considered in deep fantasy leagues or as a waiver wire grab. In dynasty leagues, Sanu is a player who will only improve throughout the season. Keep an eye on him, or draft him as good long-term value.

BENCH BUILDER
Jermaine Gresham
is pivotal to the Bengals success. The tight end must stay healthy and must become a major target for Andy Dalton in order to add dimension to the passing game. Gresham has all the factors and ability to make this happen. He had 56 catches for 596 yards and 6 TDs last year. Just with that stat line, Gresham is a solid tight end in most fantasy formats, or at worse a nice backup. But with an uptick in those numbers, which I anticipate, and he’s a guy you can grab later in drafts, after the the G’s (Gronk, Graham and Gates) get drafted and still count on to help your fantasy squad.

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