Each week I will throw out some random rants on five players at a particular position…

Trevor Cahill, OAK – After winning 18 games a year ago, many expected to see a bit a fantasy drop off for the A’s ace. I was not one of them.  He failed to get out of the fifth inning in his first start of the season, throwing 105 pitches in a no-decision against Seattle.  However, the righty was much more efficient in a stellar start Thursday against the Blue Jays as allowed just three hits and one run while striking out seven batters and waling nobody on his way to the victory. The 23-year old only averaged four strikeouts per game in 2010, but already has registered 15 K’s through two starts.

Edinson Volquez, CIN – The Reds’ Opening Day starter is 1-0, but he has been far from spectacular during his first two starts of the season. The first inning has been brutal for the hurler thus far as he has thrown a total of 74 pitches in the opening frame in a pair of outings and has given up seven runs in that span. It appears as if Volquez is overpitching right now rather than relying on the National League’s top defense to do their work behind him. The upside is there, but he needs to calm down a bit. It may be a great time to try to acquire him on the cheap.

Fausto Carmona, CLE – Carmona was lit up during his first outing of the year, yielding 10 runs in just three innings of work versus the White Sox. His second start though was much more productive as he pitched seven shutout innings against a stacked Red Sox lineup. The Indian has been as inconsistent as they come over his career, but you can’t ignore his 200 plus innings, 13 wins and his 3.77 ERA a year ago. His upside for wins is limited on a weak Cleveland team, but you can do much worse at the back end of your fantasy rotation.

Aaron Harang, SD – Over the last three years while a member of the Reds, the veteran has been awful, posting an 18-38 record and ceding over 5.5 runs per inning. Now he returns to his hometown Padres and the friendly confines of Petco Park.  His first start of the year in the pitcher-friendly yard was promising as he held the Giants six hits and just one run through six innings, struck out six and walked two. He’s worth keeping your eyes on. Another start or two like that and he’ll become a viable mixed-league option.

Kyle Drabek, TOR – It is looking like the Blue Jays got something right when they dealt Roy Halladay as youngster Kyle Drabek is looking like the real deal. Through two starts the 23-year old is 1-0 with a 1.38 ERA and 1.08 WHIP with 12 strikeouts in 13 innings. His seven walks are a bit alarming, but Drabek appears to be just feeling his way. He’s on over 80 percent of the rosters out there, but if he’s still available in your league I recommend scooping him up.  He remains a must-start option until proven otherwise.

Fantasy Baseball fantasy 5, fantasy advice, starting pitchers, trevor cahill, edinson volquez, fausto carmona, aaron harang, kyle drabek

The Queen City is excited, and rightfully so, about a relevant September and an extended October for their Boys of Summer.  The possibility is real for those Reds fans age 15 and under to witness the first Reds playoff series since they have been alive (excluding the one game play- in game in 1999).  And if that was not enough, the future beyond 2010 looks bright for the Cincinnati Reds as their farm system is deep and ready to graduate talent.

            So what are the key issues coming down the stretch and heading into the future?  Well, here are the ten important questions that need to be addressed and one person’s answers.  The questions are in order with the most important question at the end…

1.  Will Orlando Cabrera stop Joey Votto from winning the Triple Crown?  Answer:  It already happened.  Cabrera has batted in front of Votto in almost every game that he has played this year despite an Alex Trevino- like .276 on- base percentage.  Thus, Votto has not had enough teammates on base when he is at the plate and his RBI total suffers (Stubbs has not helped much either at the top of the lineup).  Votto still is only three RBI off the pace (at press time), but Cabrera is coming off of the DL soon and the sabotage will resume.  Let us not skip another part of the equation- Votto’s nagging injuries (neck, back) and his increasingly poor reputation with the umps is not helping either.

2.  What will the Reds do with Aaron Harang?  Answer:  Wait until the rosters expand in September and then add him to the roster as a long reliever.  He deserves no better- he cannot get Triple- A hitters out right now.  He gave up six earned runs, nine hits, in six innings in his most recent rehab start in Louisville.  In terms of the future, his option will be declined and he will be a free agent this winter.  He better be ready to take a massive salary cut.

3.  Will the Reds exercise the option on Bronson Arroyo’s contract and bring him back next year?  Answer:  His option year will cost the Reds $11 million, but if they decline the option, it will cost them $2 million.  He would easily be the most expensive pitcher on the staff next year as Homer Bailey, Mike Leake, Johnny Cueto, Edinson Volquez, Travis Wood, Matt Maloney and Aroldis Chapman may not make $11 million combined.  Notice how many starting pitchers were just named- there is no room at the inn for Arroyo.  He is out.  On a side note, a great trade for next year would involve one of these young pitchers going to the Marlins for their young left fielder, Logan Morrison.  His on- base tools and power would fit in perfectly at the top of the lineup, even though he is a left handed batter.

4.  What will the Reds do with the money saved from the expiring contracts of Arroyo, Harang, Arthur Rhodes and Mike Lincoln (roughly $26 million)?  Answer:  Brandon Phillips’ contract calls for a $4.25 million pay raise.  Cueto, Volquez, Bailey, Bill Bray, and most importantly, Votto are all eligible for arbitration this off- season so that should cost around $12 million combined.  It could be more if one is signed long- term (hopefully, Votto is first in this line).  Rhodes should be re- signed and that may cost $3 million so there is almost $20 million already spent.  There is some savings left over; a free agent left fielder may get that if one is not acquired through trade. 

5.  Is this bullpen still a worry?  Answer:  Outside of Francisco Cabrera (see below), the bullpen has become a positive.  Here is a great sign for the bullpen:  Mike Leake, a top ten rookie in the National League is the long man in the bullpen and his demotion there was mainly due to concern over his innings pitched. Besides that, Logan Ondrusek and Jordan Smith keep their pitches low, a necessity at GABP.  Rhodes has been dominant.  Nick Masset has rebounded well after an awful April.  And Aroldis Chapman is on the way.  No worries here… almost.

Bonus question:  We will take a break at the halfway point, and ask a historical question… do Ken Griffey Jr. and Adam Dunn belong in the Cincinnati Reds Hall of Fame?  The two lightning rods for fans’ ire probably get a quick, emotional, “No way!”  They were the poster boys for losing, uninspiring teams and they were paid generously.  But time and some Reds winning seasons will heal those wounds and fans will eventually look closely at what they accomplished and vote them into the Reds Hall.  Here are their numbers with a comparison to the most recent Reds Hall inductee, Chris Sabo:

Player             AB       Hits     HRs    Runs   RBI     AVG    OBP    SLG    Seasons

Dunn                3727    920      270      678      646      .247     .380     .520     about 7

Griffey              3353    904      210      533      602      .270     .362     .514     about 8.5

Sabo                3012    812      104      443      373      .270     .328     .447     about 6.5

By the way, Dunn is 3^rd all- time in OBP, 2^nd is slugging, 4^th in home runs, 16^th in runs and 17^th in RBI.  Griffey is 4^th in slugging, 7^th in home runs, 29^th in runs, and 23^rd in RBI.  Dunn is a lock.  Griffey is a good bet.

6.  Should Francisco Cabrera remain the team’s closer?  Answer:  Cordero is walking 5.7 batters per nine innings.  He is giving up 8 hits per nine innings.  As a result, his WHIP is 1.52 which means that one and a half runners are reaching on him every inning.  This is poor for any pitcher, much less a closer who is sent in to protect small leads.  Sure, he has 33 saves, but that number defies his statistics and those statistics will catch up with him at some point soon.  In other words, he has been lucky to save many of those games.  Arthur Rhodes should close Reds games with Aroldis Chapman moving into his setup role.

7.  Should the Reds extend Dusty Baker’s contract?  Answer:  Any loyal reader of this column knows what is coming… absolutely not.  Some will say he deserves it because he has the Reds winning.  The truth is, he had a lot of young talent dumped on his lap by past and present General Managers.  Most major league managers dream of bats like Joey Votto, positive leadership from a veteran like Scott Rolen, and a solid seven man starting rotation (including Chapman and Leake).  Baker deserves credit for his master handling of egos, but there are no excuses for low OBP hitters at the top of the lineup, platoon players in the lineup everyday regardless of the opposition’s pitcher (coverage coming soon), and a refusal to bench slumping players (Cordero, Gomes, Stubbs, Cabrera, etc.).  He has played against the odds and won many times this season… eventually that will catch up to him.

8.  Will Dusty Baker use more platoons in the lineup?  Answer:  Lately, we have seen some progress in this area of deficiency for Baker.  Jay Bruce is sitting more and more against left handed pitchers.  Now, Baker needs to move across the outfield and sit Drew Stubbs and Johnny Gomes much more against right handed pitching.  Here are the triple slash numbers (batting average/ on base percentage/ slugging percentage) for Gomes, Stubbs and two possible replacements:

Gomes:  .254/ .299/ .412 with most of that success coming in April and May

Nix:  .281/ .338/ .446

Stubbs:  .240/ .308/  .374

Heisey: .404/ .493/ .702

At the very least, Heisey needs to be playing left field instead of Gomes against right handed pitching.  How does a major league manager let this rather large discrepancy continue?  Baker is a very stubborn individual so Gomes and Stubbs may have to break some legs (or strain an oblique: see Cabrera, Orlando) before common sense finds its way into the Reds lineup.

9.  Will Dusty Baker sit Paul Janish on the bench when Orlando Cabrera returns from the Disabled List?  Answer:  Though it defies all common sense (again), you can bet the house on this.  Here are the numbers that Baker chooses to ignore:

Janish:  .281/ .358/ .421 with no errors and a 5.01 range factor

Cabrera:  .260/ .302/ .339 with 10 errors and a 4.23 range factor

Cabrera versus right handers:  .239/ .276/ ..320

Janish versus right handers:  .256/ .330/ .410

Out of curiosity:

Juan Castro (2003):  .253/ .290/ .388

Anderson Machado (in 56 at bats in 2004):  .268/ .379/ .393

Cabrera is plummeting towards Ray Olmedo status (. 228/ .276/ .293 career line).  There is no other manager in MLB that would play Cabrera regularly right now.  Baker’s negatives- and they are big negatives- are simply being hidden by wins right now.

10  Will the Reds make the playoffs?  Answer:  Let’s take injuries out of the equation.  The Wild Card spot is possible and it appears it will come down to either the Phillies or Braves and the Cardinals or Reds.  The NL West is the strongest division in the National League and the Giants have the schedule disadvantage when it comes to the Wild Card.   The pick here says the Phillies or Braves will take the Wild Card because both have starting pitching depth and both are getting healthy (outside of Chipper Jones and Chase Utley).  So… can the Reds win the NL Central?  The teams are both playing weak schedules down the stretch and the teams are evenly matched in just about every category except coaching.  After 162 games, the teams will not be separated by more than a couple of games.  Though the Big Three- Cordero, Cabrera, and Baker- will blow a few extra games the Reds otherwise would not lose, the Reds already do have a cushion, they have superior depth (particularly with Chapman coming up), and they appear to have karma on their side.  The Reds by one game.

MLB cincinnati reds, joey votto, aaron harang, bronson arroyo, brandon phillips, arthur rhodes

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Pitching on eight days rest Reds’ rookie Mike Leake struggled on Tuesday night against the Pirates, yielding seven runs – six earned – in just five innings.

The team has been watching his innings count and it has started to cause some disruption to his rhythm.

The numbers (from Lance McAlister) tell the tale:

First 11 Starts: 5-0 2.22 ERA...10 of 11 Quality Starts
Last 9 Starts: 2-3 6.11 era....2 of 9 Quality Starts
Leake on normal rest (4 or 5 days): 17 starts, 6-2 3.45 era
Leake on extra rest (6+ days): 3 starts 1-1 7.31 era

It is definitely a situation worth watching. With the depth of the staff and the potential of a return from Aaron Harang and Homer Bailey, the Reds may be better off simply letting him go and then shutting him down or moving to bullpen once he approaches their predetermined inning count.

Fantasy Baseball, MLB cincinnati reds, mike leake, aaron harang, homer bailey

The Cincinnati Reds placed starting pitcher Aaron Harang on the 15-day disabled list on Tuesday due to stiffness in his back retroactive to June 30. The veteran right hander will be eligible to come off on July 16.

In Harang’s place, the Reds turned to lefty Matt Maloney on Tuesday night against the Mets. The youngster hung in during his first start in the majors this season but was no match for Johan Santana. who fired a three-hit shutout. Maloney picked up the loss as he gave three runs on seven hits in 5 2/3 innings of work.

The Reds are expected to activate Edinson Volquez sometime in the near future and will likely get Harang back shortly after the break.  The depth of starting pitching in the organization is definitely an asset and something this franchise hasn’t seen in sometime.

Fantasy Baseball, MLB cincinnati reds, aaron harang, matt maloney, edinson volquez

The Cincinnati Reds sit in first place in the N.L. Central, but if they are going to stay there they are going to have to figure some things out with their pitching.

Injuries are forcing their hand with the team’s starting rotation.

Homer Bailey (shoulder) suffered a setback in his stint and has been shut down indefinitely.  He made one start at Triple A Louisville, but experienced soreness and swelling afterwards.

Sam LeCure has filled in decently, but has faced some tough opponents (Chris Carpenter, Matt Cain, and Zach Greinke) over his last three starts. His overall numbers bad – 4 starts, 1-3, 3.75 ERA, 16 K, 15 BB in 24 innings.

Bronson Arroyo had one bad inning in his last outing versus Kansas City, but has been the team’s most consistent performers.

After a shaky start, Aaron Harang is actually pitching effective innings of late, allowing five runs over 18 innings in his last three starts.

Johnny Cueto has had flashes of brilliance, but is simply too inconsistent to be counted on a stopper.

With Bailey on the mend and Edinson Volquez recovering nicely from Tommy John surgery and targeting a late-July return, the Reds are going to have to make some decisions.

Add to it the fact the team has $30 million tied up in Cuban signee Aroldis Chapman and the intense pressure to bring him up and it gets interesting.

The team also needs to address its struggling bullpen. Outside of Arthur Rhodes, manager Dusty Baker has not been able to count on the unit.

General manager Walt Jocketty indicated on Monday that he is considering moving two left-handed starters from the minors, Travis Wood and Matt Maloney, to the majors to help in the bullpen. It is reportedly not yet being considered for Chapman. A trade should not be ruled out either.

“We’re looking internally and outside,” Jocketty told the Cincinnati Enquirer. “We haven’t come to any conclusion. But we’re trying to determine which way to go in the next day or two.”

MLB cincinnati reds, homer bailey, sam lecure, edinson volquez, aaron harang, bronson arroyo

It’s beginning to sound like a broken record, but Aaron Harang is no longer the innings eater he once was.  His run of “bad luck”, as he referred to it to beat writers after his latest debacle on Wednesday, is beginning to look more and more like an end of a career.

Consider since May 25 of last year the right hander has managed just one win in 14 decisions while posting a 5.44 ERA while allowing 146 hits and walking 34 batters in 119 2/3 innings of action.

He’s off to a 0-3 start this year and currently sports a 8.31 ERA. The league is currently hitting .319 against him.

After his latest blow-up in Wednesday’s loss to the Dodgers (7 runs, 10 hits in 5 2/3 innings) there is growing concern. How many more times can the Reds continue to trot him out there? He’s killing the bullpen and not keeping the team in games.

The team is off on Monday, his next scheduled start day so they could skip him if they opted to. However, that is a short-term answer. A better option could be a move to the bullpen.

After watching the Cubs send Carlos Zambrano to the bullpen, anything is possible. Harang has proven to be more effective early in the game, often getting tattooed by opposing batters the second and third time around the order. The numbers back it up. Here’s a look at what hitters are batting off him within a pitch count:

Pitches 1-15: .158
Pitches 16-30: .348
Pitches 31-45: .292
Pitches 46-60: .421
Pitches 61-75: .600

The Reds have options (Travis Wood, Arodolis Champan, and Matt Maloney to name a few) in the minors to come up and fill the spot in the rotation. They are not going to cut Harang and eat that hefty salary. They shopped him in the off-season and there were no takers.  The bullpen seems like the only option.

Fantasy Baseball, MLB cincinnati reds, aaron harang, travis wood, arodolis chapman, matt maloney

With four spots set in the Cincinnati Reds rotation, one spot is left up for grabs. That spot should be decided after tonight's spring training game. The final spot could go to either Mike Leake or Travis Wood. Neither pitcher has experience in the majors, but both have had been decent in spring training. Leake, the likely front-runner, has thrown 12 innings this spring, giving up four runs and striking out eight. Wood, who pitches tonight in the second half of a split-squad game, has thrown 14 innings, giving up four runs and striking out 12. Leake has more experience in the minors, which is why he is being considered over Wood at this point.

At the start of training camp there was a lot of hype surrounding Aroldis Chapman, the phenom free agent that defected from Cuba to join the Reds. There was a lot of speculation that he could end up taking that fifth spot in the rotation if he performed well in spring training. All signs pointed to that being a reality until Chapman suffered a minor back injury while pitching in a game a couple weeks ago. The Reds are being very cautious with him and rather than throwing them to the wolves right out of the gate, it looks like Chapman will start in the minors and work his way up to the big leagues. In all likelihood, Chapman will be up with the club at some point this season.

With the rotation almost set, all eyes will turn to Aaron Harang, who will start his fifth straight Opening Day for the Redlegs. He's struggled this spring giving up 16 runs in 13.2 innings (9.88 ERA). Harang struggled down the stretch last year and with the way his spring has gone, there is cause for concern. While spring stats don't typically mean much when it comes to veterans, an almost 10.00 ERA is not something to be taken lightly or looked over. Harang is supposed to be the ace of the rotation followed by Bronson Arroyo and Johnny Cueto, both of which have been decent this spring and should transfer over into the regular season just fine. Homer Bailey has also had a good spring and as long as he can remain consistent and stay under control, this could be the year he finally lives up to the hype that surrounded him a few years ago when the Reds drafted him. Its Harang that the fans in Cincy are worried about. He will toe the rubber against the St. Louis Cardinals on Opening Day, where he will try to finally get the Reds started off on a winning note to the season.

As it stands, the Reds starting rotation looks like this to start the 2010 season:

1. Aaron Harang
2. Bronson Arroyo
3. Johnny Cueto
4. Homer Bailey
5. Mike Leake/Travis Wood

MLB cincinnati reds, mike leake, travis wood, aroldis chapman, aaron harang, bronson arroyo, johnny cueto, homer bailey

Cincinnati Reds’ manager Dusty Baker named Aaron Harang the team’s Opening Day starter on Wednesday, according to MLB.com.

Despite finish with just six wins in two straight seasons, the veteran right hander is set to start the first game of the year for the fifth straight time (one shy of Mario Soto’s record of six).

How does a guy that has looked as bad as Harang get the call over Bronson Arroyo, who has hit the 15-win plateau in each of the last two years?

"I know it probably won't be a popular decision," Baker told the website. "But talking to both of them, Harang seems to pitch better against top pitchers. After Day 1, it doesn't matter anyway."

The thought is to sandwich young gun Johnny Cueto in between Harang and Arroyo with Homer Bailey pitching in the No. 4 spot. With both veterans being inning eaters, the idea is not to “tax the bullpen”.

That does makes sense, but still why not Arroyo No. 1 and Harang No. 3?

MLB cincinnati reds, aaron harang, bronson arroyo, dusty baker, opening day

from John Fay, Cincinnati Enquirer...

If you had to point just one thing that the Reds’ success or failure hinges on, it would be this:

Whether Aaron Harang is the pitcher he was in 2006 and ’07 or the pitcher he was in 2008 and ’09. Harang won 16 games in both ’06 and ’07; he won six games each of the last two years.

New pitching coach Bryan Price is confident Harang can get back to elite starter status.

“I don’t think there’s any question,” Price said. “I think he’s going to have a tremendous year. This is an established major league-innings guy with command. What I think is his best days are ahead of him. You’re going to see better stuff and better location.”

COMPLETE ARTICLE

MLB cincinnati reds, aaron harang, reds links

HOF baseball writer Hal McCoy sounds off on recent Aaron Harang trade rumors:

One big reason the Reds shouldn’t be trading starting pitchers is the fact starter Edinson Volquez underwent Tommy John surgery and probably won’t be ready to pitch until June or July of next season.

So they need Aaron Harang, even though his record over the past two seasons is 12-31 (6-17 and 6-14). No, that isn’t good. Not even average. And for $11 million a year, it is putrid.

There are extenuating circumstances. In his 26 starts last season, the Reds scored 89 runs, or 3.42 per game. They scored two runs or less 12 times and twice were shut out. Reds batters hit .239 when he was pitching.

COMPLETE ARTICLE

MLB cincinnati reds, aaron harang, trade rumors, hot stove league, rumor mill