Cincinnati Reds closer Aroldis Chapman converted his first eight saves, but after giving up back-to-back homeruns to the Philadelphia Phillies on Sunday he’s blown two straight save opportunities.

The closer’s struggles go beyond the last two outings. Chapman has ceded six runs on nine hits over 5 2/3 innings in his last seven outings.

My guy Lance McAlister on ESPN 1530 provided the following splits on his blog:

First 14 appearances:
13.1 IN, 5 H, 3 BB, 21 K, 1 HR, 0.68 ERA, .114 BA

Last 7 appearances:
5.2 IN, 9 H, 6 BB,  9 K, 2 HR, 9.53 ERA, .360 BA

Chapman's 2012 funk
June 7-24: 7 games, 6.1 IN, 9 H, 8 ER, 3 HR, 11.80 ERA (0-4, 2 SV, 3 BS)
All other: 61 games, 65.1 IN, 26 H, 4 ER, 1 HR, 0.55 ERA (5-1, 36 SV, 2 BS)

Chapman on days rest 2013
When pitching 0-1 days rest: 13 games, 12.2 IN, 0 R, 4 for 41 (.097), 22 K, 3 BB, 0.00 ERA
When pitching 2+ days rest:   8 games,   6.1 IN, 7 R, 10 for 28 (.357), 8 K, 6 BB, 10.32 ERA

I am still convinced part of the problem is that he has only pitched 19 innings through the team's first 44 games. The Reds are going to continue to roll Chapman out there and eventually they are hoping the Cuban Missle will once again take off.

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The Cincinnati Reds are about 1/3 of the way through a brutal April schedule and after three series versus play-off caliber teams in the Angels, Nationals and Cardinals the team stands at 5-4. While there have been encouraging signs, there have also been some reason for concern:

THE GOOD
--Shin-Soo Choo:  Defensive issues aside he has a 1.197 OPS.
--Todd Frazier: Hitting .333 and leads team with 3 HR (tied) and 10 RBI.
--Brandon Phillips: Shuffled to the cleanup spot early in year and been clutch.
--Aroldis Chapman: Staying in closer role has him looking comfortable (5 IP, 2 SV, 9 K).
--Johnny Cueto: Could have beat Jered Weaver and won vs. Stephen Strasburg.
--Xavier Paul: Paul is 4 for 9 (.444) with a homer and six RBI. Been clutch off the bench.

THE BAD
--Ryan Ludwick: Losing your cleanup hitter for half the year on Opening Day blows.
--Joey Votto:  The power outage continues. Last HR came on 6/24 vs MIN (54 games).
--Homer Bailey: Writing off the 7 ER allowed to STL as a bad day. I’m still hoping for big things.
--Mike Leake: His leash will be short if he can’t get better than his first start vs. WAS.

THE UGLY
--Chris Heisey: Has done little with his opportunity for playing time (.188 OBP).
--Zack Cozart: In his 31 at bats the shortstop has more K’s (5) than hits (4).
--J.J. Hoover: The reliever was tagged with two of the team’s four losses.

REASON FOR HOPE
--Tony Cingrani: Has a 1.63 ERA in 40 career minor-league starts dating back to 2011.

REASON FOR CONCERN
--Sean Marshall: Left shoulder tendoinits has forced the key setup man to 15-day DL.

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Some good bit of trends from Lance McAlister of 700 WLW (through Friday 7/27)...

Chapman
vs NL this year
39 games, 43.1 innings, 1 ER, 0.20 ERA
14 hits, 13 BB, 86 K
NL hitters: 14 for 143 (.098)
34 of his last 43 outs have been strikeouts

Simon says
0 ER last 11.0 innings
2 ER last 24.2 innings
4 ER last 37.1 innings
Season: 2-1 1.41 in 38.1 innings
Dusty is trusting him more and more. Friday night he was brought into protect a 3-0 lead. He had appeared in one game the Reds won in his first 15 appearances after he was acquired by the Reds. He has now pitched in five winning games in his last 8 appearances.

Ludwick
Since June 14
.311-.376-.623-.999 in 31 starts and 106 AB.
10 HR, 17 RBI
10 doubles, 1 triple
Reds record: 21-10.

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The rosters have been announced for the 83nd MLB All-Star Game...

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The battle for the Reds fifth and final spot in the rotation appears to be over, or at least it should be.

Aroldis Chapman pitched five more strong innings on Thursday, yielding just two runs and seven hits while walking none and striking out six batters.

His spring training numbers have been impressive:
17 IP, 17 H, 2 BB, 18 K, 4 ER, 2.12 ERA

Yet Reds’ manager Dusty Baker is still not ready to commit to him being back in the team’s rotation.

"I don't know, man," Baked told the team’s website. "We haven't come up with [the answer] yet. Honestly, we have not decided yet. There are more people involved here than just Chapman."

In order to put Chapman in the rotation the team must also answer what are they going to do with Homer Bailey, who is out of options, and how it is going to fill voids in the bullpen left by the season-ending injury to Ryan Madson and with Nick Massett starting the year on the 15-day disabled list.

Bailey has posted a 7.98 ERA with seven walks and six strikeouts in his five big league starts this spring. However, he worked six scoreless innings with four hits, one walk and five strikeouts against a Triple-A team on Thursday.  The righty has never worked out of the bullpen as a Red and it remains unclear how he’d perform in that role.

Another possibility is to trade Bailey for some bullpen help. Though after trading Travis Wood to the Cubs this offseason and Edinson Volquez to the Padres, the team’s depth of major-league ready starters isn’t as deep as it used to be.

Still, it’s time to give Chapman his crack. He’s earned it. The Cuban Missle has been a starter his entire life and the team paid him big bucks based off that. However, they rushed him to the majors during their 2010 run at the division title and put him in the bullpen. After a disappointing 2011 campaign the team committed this offseason to work him back as a starter. Now, before the season even begins they are ready to jump ship.  He can make a much bigger impact on this team as a starter.

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The Reds got bad news on Saturday as news came that their newly acquired closer, Ryan Madson, will need Tommy John surgery.

Madson, who signed a one-year, $8.5 million dollar deal this offseason, never threw a pitch in a Cactus League game this spring for the Reds due to inflammation in his elbow. After throwing a side session on Tuesday, the Reds opted to scratch him from a scheduled Thursday appearance.

He headed back to Cincinnati on Friday to be examined by Dr. Timothy Kremcheck, who diagnosed that Madson's elbow ligament had torn off the bone.

The right hander came was considered one of the gems of the team’s off-season moves and came to the team at a big discount. He was to be paid $6 million this season, and he had an $11 million mutual option for '13 that carried a $2.5 million buyout. A physical was successfully completed before the contract was finalized. The Reds did not take out insurance on the contract, because it is club policy not to have insurance on one-year contracts.

The team has yet to announce a Plan B at closer, but it appears that Sean Marshall and Aroldis Chapman are the most likely candidates.

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After spending the maximum 30 days on a minor-league rehab assignment, the Cincinnati Reds activated Aroldis Chapman from the disabled list prior to Friday night’s loss in Baltimore and optioned lefty reliever Jeremy Horst to Triple-A Louisville.

The Cuban Missle’s rehab assignment wasn’t exactly smooth as he recovered from shoulder inflammation and control problems.  Chapman allowed 12 runs in 13 innings between Double-A and Triple-A, but did have a solid 20:8 strikeout-to-walk ratio and put up a pair of scoreless innings in over his final two appearances.

Before being put on the shelf in mid-May the left hander had a 6.92 ERA and more walks (20) than strikeouts (15) in 13 innings for the Reds. He walked 12 of the last 19 batters he faced before the Reds shut him down. Manager Dusty Baker plans to ease him back into the mix by working Chapman in low-pressure situations out of the bullpen.

There are mixed opinions on what the Reds should do with Chapman, but considering the team signed him to a six-year, $30.25 million major league contract in January 2010 that included a fat $16.25 million signing bonus, the Reds have to figure it out at the Major League level.

If they have doubts, than perhaps it’s time to put him on the trading block. Rest assured there is a market for a lefty that throws 105 MPH.

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After watching him fail to pass 94 MPH on the radar gun the Reds knew something was up with flamethrower Aroldis Chapman. He was pulled from the game before finishing the eighth inning after a walk and throwing error led to the Padres' game-tying run.

John Fay of the Cincinnati Enquirer reports that Chapman was examined by Dr. Tim Kremchek yesterday (Kremchek happened to be in San Diego). “There’s no concern,” Reds' GM Walt Jocketty told the paper. “He has some inflammation, which is not unusual for someone who pitches a lot and throws as hard as he does. They put him on an anti-inflammatory. We’ll give him a day or two off.”

The Reds are likely to be cautious with the lefty and watch how they use him. Wednesday marked his fourth appearance in five days.

“We think he’s capable of pitching a lot,” Jocketty said. “We’ll keep an eye on it.”

With somebody that throws as hard as Chapman the likelihood for injury certainly increases. There's not a cause for concern just yet, but it is something definitely worth watching.

As Chapman displayed in the spring he is still learning to work as a reliever and there are going to be some days where the control is the issue. The Reds are hoping those days get farther and farther in between.

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The top prospects in the Reds' system according to BaseballProspectus.com:

Five-Star Prospects
1. Aroldis Chapman, LHP

Four-Star Prospects
2. Devin Mesoraco, C
3. Billy Hamilton, 2B/SS
4. Yasmani Grandal, C

Three-Star Prospects
5. Yorman Rodriguez, OF
6. Yonder Alonso, 1B
7. Zack Cozart, SS

Two-Star Prospects
8. Juan Francisco, 3B/1B
9. Kyle Lotzkar, RHP
10. Ismael Guillon, LHP
11. Junior Arias, SS

COMPLETE BREAKDOWN

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With the Winter Meetings starting next Monday, December 6th, and Redsfest coming up this weekend, now is a perfect time to present Cincinnati Reds management with a realistic blueprint for the home team in 2011.  The key word in that sentence is realistic.  There are no pipe dreams in this plan like free agents Carl Crawford, Cliff Lee or Derek Jeter- big market teams can afford to overpay for these guys. There are no ridiculous trades for Jose Reyes, Justin Upton, or Brain Wilson- their teams are asking too much and the Reds’ philosophy is to build from within and not trade from within.  But at the same time, some trades and some signings should happen to push the Reds from a good team to an elite team. 

TOP PRIORITIES
1.  A real ace pitcher - the 2010 post- season showed why a hammer on the staff is needed in the playoffs. The Reds have a bunch of #2, #3, and #4 starting pitchers who do not match up well in the playoffs.  The only pitcher on the current roster that could be an ace is Aroldis Chapman, but he may not be ready yet to assume that role. 

2.  A starting leftfielder who can get on base - Jonny Gomes was exposed in the second half of the season to be nothing but a fourth or fifth outfielder.  A new left fielder needs to get on base a ton (this eliminates Scott Podsednik whose career numbers are an unimpressive .279 batting average/ a middling .340 on- base percentage/ and a miserable .381 slugging percentage).  Joey Votto came to the plate too many times last season with the bases empty.  By comparison, Albert Pujols in 2010 came to bat 30 more times with runners on base than Votto did. In addition, the Reds leadoff hitters hit a combined .244 last year with a staggering .306 on- base percentage.  The main two culprits that batted ahead Votto were Brandon Phillips, who had a .332 OBP and Orlando Cabrera, who had a pathetic .303 OBP.  This has to improve.

3.  A reliable closer - Reds fans are cringing at the possibility of another season of Francisco Cordero’s high wire act.

4.  Bench help - Laynce Nix is not coming back and Miguel Cairo is a free agent.  There is some help in the Minors, but there are one or two perfect fits for the Reds in the trade market.

BUDGET
Last year’s Opening Day budget was $76,151,500 and according to Reds administration, the budget should be slightly higher this year. 

TRADES/FREE AGENT SIGNINGS
1.  The first move is a non-move.  According to our priorities, the Reds need an ace pitcher.  The Reds will get one through a trade for Yonder Alonso… at the July Trade Deadline.  There are five reasons for this: A.) The cost of an ace pitcher is awfully high at the beginning of the season compared to the midpoint of a season, particularly, for a end- of- the- year free agent.  Along these same lines we find the laws of supply and demand… B.)  There are almost no ace pitchers on the market presently so the ones that are on the market can get a king’s ransom in return.  C.)  The Reds are built for the long haul of the 162 game season and not the short- series playoffs.  They do not need the ace until the end of the year.  D.)  Zach Greinke, the only notable ace on the market did not have a very impressive season last year (4.17 E.R.A. and 1.25 WHIP).  Let him prove his worth a little more.  Remember the Reds fascination with Erik Bedard of the Orioles after his breakthrough season a few years ago?  Thank goodness the Mariners jumped on him before the Reds.  E.)  Adrolis Chapman may develop into an ace so a trade for Greinke may be premature.  Give Chapman until the All- Star break to develop and then make an evaluation for a trade.

2.  Trade Edinson Volquez and minor league center fielder Dave Sappelt (.342/ .395/ .507 over three stops in High- A, Double- A and Triple- A) to the Florida Marlins for leftfielder Logan Morrison.  The Marlins are in the midst of an impressive makeover of the lineup, but need one more starting pitching to be a serious contender.  They have an extra corner outfielder (Chris Coghlan and Mike Stanton are the other two), they have no centerfielder, and they have some money to spend after recently dealing Dan Uggla.  They take on Volquez’s $2 million and Sappelt’s league minimum salary while dealing away a $412,000 salary to the Reds.  Why trade Volquez and not one of the other starting pitchers?  Its simple- his control is as unpredictable as Lady Gaga’s wardrobe (his walks per nine innings rate over the last three years:  5.03, 5.80, 4.27; that is way too many extra base runners).  Lastly, if the Marlins cannot be convinced to turn over Morrison, throw in Juan Francisco to possibly man third base for them.

3.  Trade pitcher Sam LeCure and Jonny Gomes to the Washington Nationals for backup outfielder Mike Morse (.289/ .352/ .519 in 266 at bats).  The Nationals are desperate for starting pitching and would look at Gomes as a possible one- year starter in left.  The Reds get back a young, cheap, underrated Morse who somehow could not win a regular job in an outfield consisting of Roger Bernadina, Josh Willingham, and Nyjer Morgan. 

4.  Re- sign Arthur Rhodes to a one- year, $2.5 million deal.  This would be a $500,000 raise from last year which makes up for the one- year pact instead of a multi- year deal.  He is getting too long in the tooth to risk anything more than a year.

5.  Sign a few free agent risks to minor league contracts (with invites to Spring Training) including Eric Chavez, Chad Tracy, and Jason Giambi.  One may win the 3B/ 1B/ left handed PH job.  This is a pretty weak group, which includes Francisco if he is still here.  As a result, let’s not take any chances and let’s trade for the Royals’ switch hitting third baseman Wilson Betemit, who stands in the way of their real third baseman, Alex Gordon.  The Royals will ask for highly regarded catching prospect Devin Mesoraco, but that is ridiculous.  A fair trade includes LH starter Daryl Thompson (52K in 51 innings and a 0.96 WHIP in Double- A) and RH reliever Carlos Fisher (38K in 36.66 innings and a 0.85 WHIP in Triple-A).  Both have lots of potential and fit in well with the Royals’ plan to win in 2012.  If another arm is needed to sweeten the deal, throw in Daniel Ray Herrera.

25-MAN OPENING DAY ROSTER
Catchers (2)
Ramon Hernandez:  $3.0 million
Ryan Hannigan:  $445,000

Comments:  Both 2010 catchers return to split the duties for one more year before Mesoraco takes Hernandez’s spot.  He may take it this year because Hernandez turns 35 this season and that is the age for catchers when the clock strikes midnight.

Total cost:  $3.445 million

Infield (6)
Joey Votto:  $8 million (arbitration estimate- his long term deal is at least a year away). 
Brandon Phillips:  $11 million
Scott Rolen:   $6.5 million. 
Paul Janish:  $445,000
Zach Cozart:  $400,000
Betemit:  $2.5 million (arbitration estimate)

Comments:   Janish and Cozart (.255/ .310/ .416 with 17 HRs in Triple- A) will vie for the starting shortstop job with either one being an improvement defensively and offensively over Orlando Cabrera (.263/.303/ and a miserable .354) who, on a side note, may not get another major league contract.  The loser of the battle is the backup at middle infield or is sent down to Louisville if another pitcher is needed.  Betemit (.297/ .378/ .511 in 276 at bats) should net 350 at bats at the four corner positions.  His ability to switch hit on a team of mostly right handed hitters and play third base on a regular basis makes him a perfect fit for this team. 

Total cost:  $28.845 million

Outfield (5)
Jay Bruce:  $2.85 million (arbitration estimate, but he should be signed to a long term deal right away.  Make an investment like the Rockies just did with Troy Tulowitzki and sign him for ten years)
Drew Stubbs:  $412,000
Logan Morrison  $412,000
Chris Heisey:  $412,000
Mike Morse:  $412,000

Comments:  Bruce will be the Reds’ best all- around player by this time next year.  He is smart, well- spoken and could be the face of the franchise.  Stubbs may never bat for a high average, but his speed, power and defense make him a Mike Cameron clone.  Morrison and his .390 on- base percentage should lead off for the Reds.  It does not matter that he did not steal one base last year (though he stole nine in both 2008 and 2009) - he will be constantly on base for Phillips, Votto, Rolen and Bruce, and therefore, the Reds may score more runs as a team than last year’s league leading total of 791.  Not convinced?  Well, as we all know, Pete Rose led off for the Big Red Machine.  In 1975, he had a grand total of… zero stolen bases for the Reds.  Look in up.  You do not need to be a speedster to lead off.  You just need to get on base.  Rose had a .406 on- base percentage and scored 112 runs, something that Morrison could come close to.

Total Cost:  $4.498 million

Starting Rotation (5)
Johnny Cueto:  $3.25 (arbitration estimate)
Bronson Arroyo:  $13 million
Travis Wood:  $412,000
Homer Bailey:  $445,000
Mike Leake:  $412,000
Comments:  Sure, you would like to see Chapman in this rotation and hopefully, that happens as early as Spring Training and the cold hand gets the long role in the bullpen.  This group can carry the Reds over the long haul.  The Cardinals do rival the Reds here (and only here), but they are thin after the top four guys and have no help if someone gets hurt.

Total Cost:  $17.519 million

Bullpen (7)
Chapman:  $1.0 million
Cordero: $12.125 million with a $1 million buyout after the season that we will already add on here
Nick Masset: $1.545 million
Bill Bray:  $.875 million (arbitration estimate)
Logan Ondrusek:  $412,000
Arthur Rhodes:  $2.5 million
Jordan Smith:  $412,000

Comments:  Not many changes here.  Matt Maloney could make the team out of Spring Training instead of Cozart if he has a strong Spring and the Reds need a long relief man.  Chapman should be the closer, but if he is in the rotation, Masset should battle Cordero for the ninth inning spotlight.  Just because Cordero makes so much money, it does not mean he has to be the closer.  In case of a bullpen malfunction, the rest of the cavalry besides Maloney includes newly signed Dontrelle Willis, Jared Burton, 2010 Futures Game selection Philippe Valiquette, and closer of the future Donnie Joseph (65 IP, 103 K, 25 BB, 2.08 E.R.A., and a .182 opponents’ average across three minor leagues in 2010).  This a deep group, so losing LeCure, Fisher, Herrera and Thompson does not hurt.

Total Cost:  $19.869 million

Team Total Cost:  Yasmani Grandal ($.4 million) and Yonder Alonso ($.5 million) both have Major League contracts so with those two included, the 2011 Opening Day payroll would be a paltry $75.076 million.  That’s right- less than last year’s budget.  This means that someone (i.e. Votto, Bruce, Cueto, Morrison, Stubbs, or Betemit in that order) could be signed to a long range contract and we would still be around last year’s payroll!

******

This plan is not a fantasy - it could happen.  Very little of the Reds farm system is impacted; Todd Frazier, Alonso, Mesoraco, and Chris Valaika are still just a phone call away from helping out.  This plan will improve the Reds most importantly at the top of the lineup, but also it will strengthen their bench, get Gomes out of left field where he was an adventure, and will help at shortstop (anything will be an improvement over an incredibly overrated Cabrera).  There are no sinkholes like Willy Taveras, Corey Patterson or Cabrera for Dusty Baker to play with and ruin the lineup.  There is speed, power, on- base skill, and a fantastic defense led by Phillips, Bruce, Stubbs, and Janish.  The most important piece of this puzzle is Morrison.  With just him, this team becomes great.  With Betemit, Morse and an ace in Chapman or in a trade at the Trade Deadline, it becomes elite.

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