GSI Mock Draft: Round Five

2. August 2009  - Published by Dan Clasgens

With the rosters filling up quickly, when you get to Round Five anything can happen. Here's a GSI Mock Draft update:

RECAPS: Round One | Round Two | Round Three | Round Four

ROUND FIVE
49. HUMBERT - TE D. Clark (IND)
50. FISCHER - WR V. Jackson (SD)
51. CLASGENS - WR B. Berrian (MIN)
52. ANSELMO - RB L. White (TEN)
53. MURDICO - RB T. Jones (NYJ)
54. SIMS - WR D. Jackson (PHI)
55. SCHMITT - TE T. Gonzalez (ATL)
56. WETZEL - TE A. Gates (SD)
57. BRYANT - QB T. Romo (DAL)
58. DINSMORE - QB C. Palmer (CIN)
59. SIMON - RB L. Johnson (KC)
60. BROERING - RB D. McFadden (OAK)

POSITION BREAKDOWN: RB (4), TE (2), WR (3), QB (2),

MY PICK: For the first time in the draft I was burned messing around. I opted to snag Reggie Bush in the end of Round Four with the thought that either Vincent Jackson or Dallas Clark would be there this time around.  You must be able to adjust on the fly. I changed directions and went with Bernard Berrian. The Vikings top wideout isn't consistent enough to be considered as a WR1 in fantasy, but he is capable of delivering big time numbers in any given week. His value would have gone up had Brett Favre opted to come back and was healthy enough to the win the job in Minnesota. Still he cracks my top 20 wideouts in my rankings.

BEST VALUE PICK: Carson Palmer is a low-risk high-reward player entering this season. He is coming off a major elbow injury, but looks to be at 100 percent. The Bengals have the weapons at wideout, even with T.J. Houshmandzadeh leaving for Seattle in free agecy, for Palmer to return to being a solid fantasy starter. The key will be whether or not the Bengals' makeshift offense line keep him upright.

MOST LIKELY TO DISAPPOINT: I have ripped Thomas Jones enough earlier on this blog, but at this point I can live with his selection.  Honesttly, there really isn't a player on the board right now that I am not good with in Round Five. Tony Gonzalez is a likely candidate for a slow start though as he moves from Kansas City to Atlanta.

FINAL TAKE: Overall a good round. When you get to this point of the draft you need to fill needs, but you also need to try to forecast the runs. Know what positions that the owners that draft after you and then before you again (with snake draft) need and already have. The round was the most balanced yet, but will set up some different strategies for owners down the stretch.

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Lineup Locks: Week 12

20. November 2008  - Published by Jimmy Dinsmore

Here is our Line-Up Locks for Week 12. Thursday's night match up will not be included. Here's a quick look at those who has favorable matchups (LOCK IN) and those who deserve a spot on your bench this week (LOCK OUT):

QUARTERBACKS
Lock In:
--Matt Cassel @ Mia
My take: 400+ yards last week. You probably had him on your bench. Don't make that mistake this week in a great match up.

--Aaron Rodgers @ NO
My take: This is a very sexy match up for the Packers QB who has been very consistent of late.

--Tony Romo vs. SF
My take: He looked a little rusty last week, but the Cowboys were playing a much better opponent last week. This week Romo and the Boys get healthy quickly versus a vulnerable 49ers defense.

Lock Out:
--Jake Delhomme @ Atl
My take: For two weeks I've hyped the Panthers QB and he's disappointed anyone who started him. So, if for no other reason than spite, don't start Delhomme this week on the road against the Falcons.

--Brett Favre @ Ten
My take: This will be a very difficult match up for Favre against one of the NFL's best defenses.

--Chad Pennington vs. NE
My take: You can bet the Patriots will be looking for some revenge versus the Dolphins and Pennington's numbers will not be good.


RUNNING BACKS
Lock In:
--Steve Slaton @ Cle
My take: Last week I predicted more touches and a great week for Slaton and he didn't disappoint. This week, he will continue his resurgence versus the Brownies.

--Warrick Dunn @ Det
My take: Earnest Graham is done for the year, Cadillac Williams is not yet ready to return to a real load and Dunn will get a weak Lions defense. That sounds like the making of a nice match up to me.

--Marshawn Lynch @ KC
My take: Much like Slaton, I predicted a break out for Lynch last week and he came through. This week, I predict more of the same. Another 100 yard game and a TD.

Lock Out:
--Thomas Jones @ Ten
My take: Jones has been a hot commodity, but he cools off this week.

--Maurice Jones-Drew vs. Min
My take: MJD did have two TDs last week versus a tough Tennessee defense, but this week, he faces the #1 rush defense in the NFL.

--Tim Hightower vs. NyG
My take: Hightower has been a nice steady fantasy option, but the Cardinals have a tough match up and there's just too much passing by that offense for Hightower to make a good start this week.


WIDE RECEIVERS
Lock In:
--Dwayne Bowe vs. Buf
My take: Bowe found the end zone last week. The emergence of Mark Bradley has helped loosen the coverage on Bowe.

--Bernard Berrian @ Jax
My take: The Jags have struggled with coverage all year and Berrian should find some seams in the Jags secondary for a couple big plays and a score.

--Donald Driver @ NO
My take: In this Monday night match up, I think Driver and Jennings will find the end zone.

Lock Out:
--DeSean Jackson @ Bal
My take: The Eagles offense is a mess and Jackson should move back to your bench this week.

--Donnie Avery vs. Chi
My take: The Rams offense is a mess and face the Bears this week. Avery belongs on the bench for now.

--Laveranues Coles @ Ten
My take: This will be a low scoring effort and Coles' numbers should be less than his normal production.


TIGHT ENDS
Lock In:
--Owen Daniels @ Cle
My take:  He disappointed last week and certainly misses Matt Schaub, but I still think Daniels bounces back with a solid performance this week.

-- Chris Cooley @ Sea
My take: The Redskins offense will look to Cooley often in a soft match up for them.

--Greg Olsen @ StL
My take: The Bears should roll over the Rams and Olsen should get a couple of red zone chances.

Lock Out:
--LJ Smith @ Bal
My take: Do not start any of the Eagles receivers or tight ends this week.

--Todd Heap vs. Phi
My take: Heap still does not warrant a fantasy start and this game should be very low scoring.

--Anthony Fasano vs. NE
My take: Fasano is a favorite red zone option for CHad Pennington, but I think the Patriots will be ready for him this time.


TEAM DEFENSE/ST
Lock In:
--Tampa Bay @ Det
--Philadelphia @ Bal
--Dallas vs. SF

Lock Out:
--New Orleans vs. GB
--Oakland @ Den
--San Diego vs. Ind

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Lineup Locks: Week 11

14. November 2008  - Published by Jimmy Dinsmore

Here is our Line-Up Locks for Week 11. Bye weeks are finally over and this week's games have a lot of great match ups. I only list three, but there are plenty of good options this week. Here's a quick look at those who have favorable matchups (LOCK IN) and those who deserve a spot on your bench this week (LOCK OUT):

QUARTERBACKS
Lock In:
--Matt Ryan vs. Den
My take: Ryan has performed like a veteran for the very underrated Atlanta Falcons. This week his match up is so good, you have to consider Ryan a top 10 QB this week. Expect a couple of scores and at least 200 yards from him.

--Donovan McNabb @ Cin
My take: McNabb should have time to shred the Bengals defense, and can still scramble away from any pressure the defense might put on him.

--Trent Edwards vs. Cle
My take: Edwards has been hot and cold but is poised for a very nice week in what could be an offensive shootout.

Lock Out:
--Chad Pennington vs. Oak
My take: Last week I hyped up Jake Delhomme to exploit the Deangelo Hall-less Raider secondary and that didn't happen. The Raiders are a mess on offense, but have actually overperformed on defense all year. I think the Dolphins will use a lot of Ronnie Brown this week in order to win the game.

--Eli Manning vs. Bal
My take: I think the Giants will win this game, but I don't think Eli does much to warrant a start this week.

--David Garrard vs. Ten
My take: The Jags have been a huge disappointment and with their season slipping away face one of the toughest defenses in the NFL. Until I see improvement from Jacksonville's o-line, I am leaving Garrard on the bench.


RUNNING BACKS
Lock In:
--DeAngelo Williams vs. Det
My take: I say start every Panther you can in this game, if possible as Detroit can't stop anything. It might be a shootout, but I think Williams could be the best of the scorers for Carolina this week.

--Tim Hightower @ Sea
My take: This year's rookie running backs has been a fruitful crop. Hightower is no different. While the Cardinals are a pass-first team, I think Hightower gets 100 yards and a score this week in what could be a closer game than some think.

--Marshawn Lynch vs. Cle
My take: Lynch has been a disappointment, but I think he comes back in a big way this week. As long as he gets 20 touches, he'll be good for 100 yards and a score.

Lock Out:
--Maurice Jones-Drew vs. Ten
My take: The Titans are the second best team in the NFL in rush defense. Factor in how bad the Jags o-line has been and I don't like MJD's chances this week.

--Earnest Graham vs. Min
My take: Several factors should keep Graham on the bench. Warrick Dunn is back from an injury, as is Cadillac Williams. Plus, Graham is gimpy and questionable with a bum knee and the Vikings are the #1 rush defense in the NFL.

--Justin Fargas @ Mia
My take: The match up isn't particular ominous for Fargas, but Darren McFadden is allegedly going to play this week and, in case you haven't been paying attention, the Raiders offense is atrocious. I would not start any Raiders at this point.


WIDE RECEIVERS
Lock In:
--Santana Moss vs. Dal
My take: Clinton Portis is likely not going to play, which means the Skins are going to have to air it out in order to beat the Cowboys and I think Moss will benefit from increased touches, especially in PPR leagues.

--Steve Smith vs. Det
My take: I realize that Smith and Delhomme had a great match up last week and were fairly disappointing, but this week, at home, versus a lousy Lions team, you can count on a great game from Smith.

--Roddy White vs. Den
My take: The Broncos can't stop anyone from scoring and moving down the field. The Falcons' offense is very good at home. And White has been one of the most consistent WRs in terms of production that no way you don't start him this week.

Lock Out:
--Vincent Jackson @ Pit
My take: This is a tough match up for the Chargers in general, and as a result, I think you can expect very little from Jackson this week.

--Bernard Berrian @ TB
My take: I have said several times in this column how underrated the Tampa defense is and for this reason, I think it will be a low-scoring affair. Berrian is a borderline starter every week, but not this week.

--Marvin Harrison vs. Hou
My take: He's a Hall of Famer, for sure, but he isn't that Hall of Fame talent any more. I don't think Harrison warrants a start in anyone's lineups now that bye weeks are over.


TIGHT ENDS
Lock In:
--Chris Cooley vs. Dal
My take:  As mentioned, without Portis, Jason Campbell will look to Cooley often as a safety valve.

--Owen Daniels @ Ind
My take: Daniels is a fantasy stud and gets a great match up this week.

--Kellen Winslow @ Buf
My take: He was targeted 11 times last week by new QB Brady Quinn and put up over 100 yards and a score. Expect nice numbers again this week from Winslow.

Lock Out:
--Greg Olsen @ GB
My take: The Packer secondary is very good and so are their linebackers. I'm not confident in anyone on the Bears defense this week.

--Todd Heap @ NYG
My take: Yes that was Todd Heap in the end zone last week, but don't get too excited and do something foolish like start him.

--Kevin Boss vs. Bal
My take: And yes that was Kevin Boss in the end zone last week, but again, don't do anything foolish like start him.


TEAM DEFENSE/ST
Lock In:
--Carolina vs.Det
--NYG vs. Bal
--Phi @ Cin

Lock Out:
--Buf vs. Cle
--Atlanta vs. Den
--Was vs. Dal

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Fantasy: Second Half Studs & Duds

28. October 2008  - Published by Dan Clasgens

In place of our normal Fantasy Traffic Light this week, we take time to look ahead to the second half of the fantasy season:

QUARTERBACKS
STUD: Peyton Manning – The Colts are getting healthy and he’s thrown for multiple scores in 3 of his last 4 games. A good stretch of games coming up with NE (banged up), PIT (tough), HOU, SD, CLE and CIN on the slate over the next 6 weeks.

DUD: Phillip Rivers – He has looked so good to this point, but the Chargers’ remaining schedule is fantasy-friendly for quarterbacks with tilts against the Steelers, Colts, and Bucs (in final week). The easy match-ups within the division better suit the team running the ball.

RUNNING BACKS
STUD: LaDainian Tomlinson – He showed last year he can be a productive back in the second half. He ran the ball 176 times for 857 yards (4.9 yards per carry) and scored 11 total touchdowns (nine rushing) in the last two months last year. Two of Tomlinson's upcoming opponents this December - the Oakland Raiders and the Kansas City Chiefs, whom the Chargers also face in Week 10 - have a poor history against the Chargers back and a porous run defense.

DUD: Marion Barber - In the Cowboys remaining 8 games they will face a top 10 rushing defense 6 of those weeks. In weeks 14-16 the Cowboys will see the league's third, seventh and first ranked rushing defenses.

WIDE RECEIVERS
STUD: Bernard Berrian – If you can get by the next few weeks of tough games, Berrian’s upside in the playoffs is great. Not only does he get three cupcakes in Detroit, Arizona, and Atlanta, he will benefit from playing December fantasy playoff games in either a dome or in the desert.

DUD: Kevin Walter – The Texas No. 2 wideout has excelled of late, but Houston plays a tough schedule down the stretch with the Vikings and Ravens the next two weeks and stingy WR match-ups in the critical 14-16 week stretch with the Packers, Titans, and Raiders on the slate.

TIGHT ENDS
STUD: Greg Olsen – I am still just waiting for this guy to blowup. The fun starts this week against the Lions, who are giving up mass points through the air and big performances to tight ends. Three games at Solider Field during the playoffs could be a problem, but the match-ups suggest a strong second half.

DUDS: Titans’ Tight Ends – Alge Crumpler and Bo Scaife may have been turned to for bye-week fillers, but neither should be counted on as starting options during the second half of the season. Playoff match-ups against Browns, Texans, and Steelers are more troubling than they appear to be.

TEAM DEFENSES
STUD: Jaguars – Their playoff match-ups aren’t as favorable as I would like, but the next few weeks look good, especially the next two games against the Bengals and Lions’ anemic offenses.

DUD: Giants – They still play DAL, WAS, PHI twice, and CAR in Week 16 – all capable offenses.


COMPLETE SCHEDULE ANALYSIS  (from FFToday.com)

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Game Time Decisions: Week 7

18. October 2008  - Published by Dan Clasgens

Here are  some injuries for owners to be aware of for Week 7. Be sure to come back Sunday for our FANTASY FRENZY - Live Game Day Blog:

QUARTERBACKS
Tony Romo - Could be active, but Dallas is not giving any indication
Carson Palmer - Out this week again; could be headed to I.R.

RUNNING BACKS

Clinton Portis - Expected to start and carry the load for WAS
Reggie Bush - Listed as probable for Sunday's tilt @CAR
LaDainian Tomlinson, Darren Sproles - Both will go against BUF
Jonathan Stewart - Illness had him appear on Friday's injury report
Chris Perry - Cedric Benson may start in his place vs. PIT
Laurence Maroney, LaMont Jordan - Both listed as doubtful; stay away

WIDE RECEIVERS

Marques Colston - Expected to make return vs. CAR
T.J. Houshmandzadeh - Practiced fully Friday; appears to be a go
Laveranues Coles - Appears to be safe and should start vs. OAK
Chris Chambers - Doubtful and unlikely to face BUF
Deion Branch - Don't expect him to be in action on Sunday night
Bernard Berrian, Sidney Rice - Both could start against CHI
Joey Galloway - Could make first appearence since Week 2
Brandon Stokley - Concussion could linger; likely out here

TIGHT ENDS

Kellen Winslow - Hopeful to play, but late start could be risky
Jeremy Shockey - Likely to play; could be limited
Tony Scheffler - Game-time decision
Ben Utecht - Listed as doubtful

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Game Time Decisions: Week 5

4. October 2008  - Published by Scott Heckle

Let's take a look at some injury concerns heading into Sunday...Get the final word with our LIVE BLOG on Sunday morning...

QUARTERBACKS
Aaron Rodgers (shoulder) - decision will come down to wire
Carson Palmer (elbow) - looking like he's going to start
Ben Roethlisberger (shoulder) - questionable; expected to go

RUNNING BACKS
Brian Westbrook (ankle) - may not be 100%, but likely to play
Willis McGahee (chest) - will be a legit game-time decision
LenDale White (shoulder) - will be limited even if he goes
Willie Parker (knee) - will return after Week 6 bye

WIDE RECEIVERS
Anquan Boldin (sinus) - out for Week 5 following surgery
Roy Williams (knee) - a late addition to the injury report
Bernard Berrian (knee) - questionable for Monday Night
Plaxico Burress (suspension) - suspended by team for Week 5
Brandon Lloyd (knee) - Has been ruled out for Week 5

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Hint: Go take another look at your waiver wire

10. September 2008  - Published by Chris Wetzel

I know, many of you are letting this day get you down.  Maybe you missed out on (fill in your week one undrafted star here).

Take heart, because there is still hope.

Now, many of you play in leagues with an all-hardcore owner group.  Many of you do not, and now is the time to take advantage - quietly, I might add - of newer owners who are desperate.

Sure, they got a great pickup on the waiver wire.  But be sure to check out who they might have dropped to get that so-called gem.  I am in four different fantasy leagues (all with 12 teams); here is a summary of who is currently available as free agents or as waiver pickups effective tomorrow:

Willis McGahee

Ryan Grant

Fred Taylor

Chad Johnson

Marques Colston

Laveranues Coles

Ronnie Brown

Jake Delhomme

Bernard Berrian

Felix Jones

Jamal Lewis

Joey Galloway

Chester Taylor

I know that some people on that list have valid arguments for dropping them as well as for keeping them, but some of them should by no means be dropped.  Four of those are starting running backs on their respective teams; a couple of others are getting enough playing time to be viable from a fantasy perspective.

So, maybe you didn't get your Dante Rosario waiver request processed, but there's gold to be found...one man's trash is another man's treasure, right?

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Injury Watch: Final Preseason Update

29. August 2008  - Published by Dan Clasgens

Knowing which players are hurt going into your draft/auction is critical. I see every single time somebody takes a player that is hurt. In some leagues you might see everyone give owners a second chance. However, in REAL leagues we say, "thanks for the donation"!

Here's the list going into this holiday weekend where so many drafts are held that you will need to know about...

BAL
QB Kyle Boller (shoulder) - could be out for the season
RB Willis McGahee (knee) - expects to be ready for opener

CAR
WR D.J. Hackett (toe) - questionable for opener
WR Steve Smith (suspension) - team-imposed 2-game suspension

CIN
QB Carson Palmer (nose) - will start vs. BAL next week
WR Chad Johnson (shoulder) - playing through injury
WR T.J. Houshmandzadeh (hamsting) - expects to play Week 1
RB Rudi Johnson (hamsting) - has not played in a preseason game
WR Chris Henry (suspension) - out for first 4 weeks of '08

DEN

WR Brandon Marshall (suspenison) - reduced to just one game

GB
RB Ryan Grant (hamstring) - status for opener in question

HOU
RB Ahman Green (groin) - nagging injury hurting his value
RB Chris Brown (back) - spot on team in question at this point

IND
QB Peyton Manning (knee) - DNP in preseason; will play Week 1

JCK
RB Maurice-Jones Drew (ankle) - limited, but should play in opener

MIN
QB Tavaris Jackson (knee) - hopes to start Week 1 for Vikings
WR Bernard Berrian (toe) - status for Week 1 is unclear

NE
QB Tom Brady (foot) - sat out preseason, will play Week 1
WR Wes Welker (ribs) - not much info yet; keep your eyes on this

NO
RB Reggie Bush (quad) - should be fine for regular season
WR Marques Colston (ribs) - appears to be a go for Week 1
TE Jeremy Shockey (leg) - has yet to play a snap as a Saint

NYG
WR Plaxico Burress (ankle) - a slight risk, but he played thru it in past

NYJ
WR Laveranues Coles (leg) - missed preseason, but good for opener

PHI
WR Kevin Curtis (hernia) - likely to miss a month or more
WR Reggie Brown (hamstring) - questionable for opening week

SD
TE Antonio Gates (toe) - will start season at less than 100%

SEA
QB Matt Hasselbeck (back) - risky; hopes to be ready for Week 1
WR Bobby Engram (shoulder) - targeting a Week 5 return to line-up

SF
WR Bryant Johnson (hamstring) - status still in question for opener
WR Arnaz Battle (hamstring) - playing thru nagging injury

TB
WR Joey Galloway (groin) - missed preseason; questionable Week 1

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Sleeper Alert: Tarvaris Jackson

9. August 2008  - Published by Dan Clasgens

Quarterback is one of fantasy football's most interesting position. There's no doubt having an elite QB - i.e. Tom Brady, Peyton Manning - can be a big time plus for an owner, but the reality of it is over half of your fantasy league is going to end up with a second- or third-tier guy as their starter.  That means that having a good backup quarterback is going to be important for 50% to 60% of the teams you play against.  Getting a guy with upside as your QB as a late-round bargain or early-season waiver wire pickup has proven to be a successful formula for owners in the past, if they get the right guy.

One of my top candidate's to be that guy this year is the Vikings' Tarvaris Jackson.  Before you start going to uncontrollable laughter let me tell you why:

SURROUNDIGS - Minnesota has the best offenisve line in the league, perhaps the best running game (Adrian Peterson and Chester Taylor), one of the league's premier defenses and quietly a much-improved receiving corps (added Bernard Barrian this off-season and Sidney Rice is on the rise).

SCHEDULE - The Vikings have a favorable schedule. In fact, it's real favorable to quarterbacks (9th best schedule for a QB - based off of fantasy points allowed to QB last season).

STRONG FINISH - Jackson threw for seven TD's and ran for two more over his last six games in '07 as he became more acquainted with the offense as the season progressed and averaged 190 PaYd per game, including 220 or more yards passing in 2 of his last 3 games.

JOB SECURITY -  Gus Frerotte is currently the Vikings' next best option.

I am not saying Jackson is going to be a Pro-Bowler by any strecth of the imagination. Still, I a firm believer this guy could finish as a top 12-15 quarterback as soon as this season. He looked really good in Minnesota's first preseason game vs. the Vikings on Friday night, going 8 for 11 for 118 yards and a TD in about a quarter of work. We currently have him as the No. 25 quarterback on the GSI Cheat Sheet, but a game or two more like this and he will move up quickly. 

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GSI Mock Draft: Rounds 9-10

22. July 2008  - Published by Dan Clasgens

With the GSI Mock Draft entering the final six rounds, we begin to double-up with the recap:

RECAP: ROUND 1 | ROUND 2 | ROUND 3 | ROUND 4 | ROUND 5 | ROUND 6 | ROUND 7 | ROUND 8

ROUND 9
81. PREUTH - Steelers DEF
82. CLASGENS - Joey Galloway - WR
83. HUMBERT - Bernard Berrian - WR
84. BOLTON - Owen Daniels - TE
85. DINSMORE - Laveranues Coles - WR
86. MURDICO - Donald Driver - WR
87. SIMS - Jay Cutler - QB
88. SIMON - Nate Burleson - WR
89. WETZEL - Matt Schaub - QB
90. FISCHER - Justin Fargas - RB

ROUND 10
91. FISCHER - Patriots DEF
92. WETZEL - Cowboys DEF
93. SIMON - Deuce McAllister RB
94. SIMS - Chester Taylor RB
95. MURDICO - Eli Manning QB
96. DINSMORE - Bears DEF
97. BOLTON - Jaguars DEF
98. HUMBERT - DeAngello Williams - CAR
99. CLASGENS - Giants DEF
100. PREUTH - Ladell Betts - WA

My Picks: Galloway is the fourth receiver I have selected, but one that easily could emerge as a weekly starter on my roster. Somewhere between 80 and the 100th picks overall you can expect to see these type of wideouts fall off the board. His age is a concern though, but I still think he has upside after getting 98 targets last year. The Giants defense could be argued as fantasy's top option and easily a top 5 unit and some 30 picks later than the first defenses - San Diego and Minnesota - went off the board. I took heat from SIMS earlier, but he only has two wideouts on his team right now (Chad and Calvin Johnson) and I have added veterans Kevin Curtis and Joey Galloway as insurance. The Giants could easily equal or surpass the output by the others. Don't kid yourself, I am big on having a good defense, but this year there simply is not enough seperation in the top 6-8 units to justify taking one early. BUILD DEPTH AT KEY POSITIONS.

Nice Finds: Owen Daniels (84), Justin Fargas (90), Chester Taylor (94)

Final Take: Many teams still need backup QB's and kickers. Most have TE and a DEF at this point. The key to success in the later rounds is knowing what owners need what.

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