Heading into the final week’s action things are taking shape for local teams and their post-season outlooks. Here is a look at how CollegeHoopsNet.com breaks things down as of Tuesday (2/28):

LOCAL TEAMS
Kentucky - #1 seed
Ohio State - #3 seed
Indiana - #4 seed
Louisville - #5 seed
Murray State - #5 seed
Xavier - #11 seed
Cincinnati - #12 seed (play-in)

BUBBLE WATCH
Last In: Arizona, Texas, Mississippi St, Cincinnati

First Out: South Florida, St. Joseph's, VCU, Dayton

Further Four: Tennessee, Oregon, Colorado St, NC State
 
Dropped Out Of Field (at-large): NC State

New (at-large): Arizona

CONFERENCE BREAKDOWN
(Multiple Bid Leagues)
Big East - 9
Big Ten - 7
ACC - 5
Big 12 - 6
SEC - 5
A-10 - 3
MWC - 3
Pac-12 - 3
WCC - 3
CUSA - 2
MVC - 2

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After witnessing their 43-game home conference win streak come to an end in a 73-68 loss to St. Louis on Wednesday night at Cintas Center, I am starting to wonder if the Xavier Musketeers are even going to be in the field of 68 when the NCAA Tournament tips off in mid-March.

The Musketeers, who were ranked as high as No. 8 in the nation earlier in the season, has now gone 5-7 over their last 12 games including lackadaisical losing efforts over their last two versus Dayton and the Bilikens.

Jerry Palm of CBSSports.com projected Xavier as a No. 11 seed in his most recent projections, but if they continue down their current path their bubble may be popped quickly.

Despite big wins early against the likes of Georgia, Vanderbilt, Purdue, Butler, and Cincinnati, Xavier has struggled in Atlantic 10 Play. Now they have the daunting task of hitting the road for a rare three-game stretch with trips to UNC-Charlotte, George Washington and Memphis ahead.

They have 10 games left in the regular season, including nine conference tilts. Amongst those games are five matchups against teams that are ahead of them in the A-10 standings. If the team were to drop six of 10 games or more down the stretch and have a mediocre effort in the A-10 tomorrow they will be on the outside looking in come Selection Sunday.

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Here's a breakdown of teams by conference based on most recent NCAA tournament projections:

Big East - 11
SEC - 6
Big 12 - 6
Big Ten - 6
ACC - 4
Mountain West - 3
Pac-10 - 3
Atlantic 10 - 3
Horizon - 2
West Coast - 2
Colonial - 2

COMPLETE PROJECTIONS (ESPN.com)

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I am not claiming to be an expert by any measure, but I did win my bracket last year. Here are my picks:

CHAMPION - Louisville over Pittsburgh

FINAL FOUR - Louisville, Pittsburgh, Memphis, Oklahoma

SWEET 16 - East: Pittsburgh, Xavier, Villanova, Duke; South: UNC, Gonzaga, Syracuse, Oklahoma; Midwest:  Louisville, Wake Forest, W. Virginia, Michigan St; West - Connecticut, Purdue, Missouri, Memphis

EARLY UPSETS - Arizona over Utah; Texas A&M over BYU; Utah State over Marquette; Maryland over Cal; VCU over UCLA; Western Kentucky over Illinois

FINAl TAKE - I know I took a lot of chalk here, but in the end I expect it to be chalk-heavy as the tournament nears it end. I do think Memphis and Oklahoma are both good teams that are being ignored by many in their brackets and offer good upside. My biggest stretch may be Gonzaga knocking off North Carolina and West Virginia going to the Sweet 16. Chances are I will either be in the running again this year or be burning my bracket by the end of this weekend. Enjoy the madness baby!!!

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WOW! The NCAA tournament is still a week away, but the drama has already begun in college hoops. There are still three days of hoops action until Selection Sunday, but let's look at some of the developing storylines and recap some of the recent action.

SYRACUSE BEATS UCONN IN INSTANT CLASSIC
Does it get any better than this? Syracuse outlasted Connecticut, winning 127-117 in six overtimes. Check out some of the numbers: it took 3 hours, 46 minutes it took to play the game that ended at 1:22 a.m., the teams scored combined 244 points, 102 of which came after the regulation buzzer, there were eight players who fouled out, and six who registered double-doubles. The game could have ended at the end of regulation, but the refs waived off a Syracuse three-pointer that would have won the game at the buzzer. It was the right call, but man was it close. I liked because it allowed for the guys to settle it on the court. The refs may have ruled differently had they realized it would take six extra frames to decide the contest.

OKLAHOMA, PITTSBURGH DISAPPOINT
All season long teams struggled to stay atop the polls. I was never sold on Oklahoma and there struggles down the stretch confirmed my suspicisions. There 71-70 loss to Oklahoma State shows they are not a serious contender for the national title as some have said. Meanwhile, Pittsburgh was even more disappointing. West Virginia dominated them, costing the Panthers there shot at a No. 1 seed. I still like Pitt as a team to make a deep run in the NCAA tournament, but they are going to have start hitting some free throws and play with a bit more consistency if they are going to make a splash.

LOUISVILLE A #1 SEED?
Rick Pitino's bunch looks so good at times and now they have a chance to get the elusive No. 1 seed with Pitt and UConn already out of the Big East tournament. The Cardinals have the talent to win it all and are definitely going to be going deep on my brackets, all 20 of them...LOL!

GOOD DAY FOR KENTUCKY
For one day UK fans had something to be excited about. First was the news that Patrick Patterson will return for his junior season. Then there was the Wildcats' impressive performance against Ole Miss. The best part of the win was that it wasn't only Patterson and Jodie Meeks carrying the load. Perry Stevenson and Darius Miller also offered some production. The Cats are still on the bubble, but if they can beat LSU on Friday they are starting to look like they will make the dance.

XAVIER BOUNCES BACK
As I wrote earlier this week, Xavier has little to gain. However, after their dud effort against Richmond to close out the regular season it was good to see them get things rolling against St. Louis to kickoff their A-10 run. If they win the conference tournament they could still sneak in as No. 4 seed.

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The Xavier Musketeers were impressive to say the least in their Senior Night thumping of their arch rivals, the Dayton Flyers, as they cruised to a 76-59 victory.

The win locked up the Muskies' third straight A-10 title and ensured them the top seed in next week's conference tournament. Still, even if XU rolls through the A-10 tournament they don't seem to figure to be anything higher than a No. 4 seed in the upcoming NCAA Tournament.

Both Joe Lunardi's Bracketology on ESPN.com and CollegeHoops.net's version have Sean Miller's group as the No. 4 seed.

It's not a good to spot to be in. With one regular season contest left and the conference tournament ahead, Xavier has nothing to gain. They can lose ground or worse yet key players, but gaining any ground will be hard to do.

Winning games and crossing off goals is all that Xavier has left to do, let's just hope they can avoid a letdown or injuries.

I guess it could be worse you could be a Kentucky or UC fan. They are sitting on the outside looking in both prognostications.

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With five of the top six teams in the bracket losing last week, it was tough to make major changes.  Last week I felt there were four definitive #1 seeds, and the rest were a step below.  The #1 seeds have not changed, but there's a lot less distance between them and the field.

Midwest Region

(1) Pittsburgh vs. play-in game winner (Alabama State vs. Tennessee-Martin)

(8) Florida vs. (9) UCLA

(5) Purdue vs. (12) Siena

(4) Florida State vs. (13) Davidson

(3) Duke vs. (14) North Dakota State

(6) Arizona vs. (11) Utah State

(7) Syracuse vs. (10) Minnesota

(2) Kansas vs. (15) Belmont

South Region

(1) North Carolina vs. (16) Radford

(8) West Virginia vs. (9) Ohio State

(5) Washington vs. (12) Creighton

(4) Gonzaga vs. (13) American

(3) Marquette vs. (14) Weber State

(6) Dayton vs. (11) Maryland

(7) Tennessee vs. (10) Texas A&M

(2) Memphis vs. (15) Robert Morris

East Region

(1) Connecticut vs. (16) Morgan State

(8) California vs. (9) UNLV

(5) Utah vs. (12) Michigan

(4) Wake Forest vs. (13) Virginia Commonwealth

(3) Villanova vs. (14) Vermont

(6) Xavier vs. (11) Kentucky

(7) Illinois vs. (10) San Diego State

(2) Missouri vs. (15) Cornell

West Region

(1) Oklahoma vs. (16) Long Beach State

(8) Butler vs. (9) Wisconsin

(5) Clemson vs. (12) Temple

(4) Arizona State vs. (13) Western Kentucky

(3) Michigan State vs. (14) Buffalo

(6) LSU vs. (11) Boston College

(7) Texas vs. (10) BYU

(2) Louisville vs. (15) Stephen F. Austin

LAST FOUR IN: Kentucky, Temple, Maryland, Michigan

LAST FOUR OUT: Penn State, South Carolina, UAB, Miami (Fla.)

NOTES:

• A rash of losses pushed Memphis, Missouri, and Louisville into #2 seed slots.  Memphis is the most likely to sneak onto the top line, since Louisville still has a couple potential stumbling blocks before the Big East tournament.  Don't count out the Tigers though, who are quickly becoming the team no one wants to have to play. 
• Arizona State and Florida State are quietly creeping up the board, making it to the #4 seed line this week.  The Sun Devils in particular loom as a dark horse Final Four pick, with their strong defense as well as standout SG James Harden.
• Because of all the teams losing around them, Xavier's cold streak isn't going to kill them too badly.  It's going to be very tough for them to crack the top four again though.
• Butler pretty much saved their season yesterday.  Had they lost to Davidson, they likely would have fallen to strictly automatic qualifier status.  They can't afford to slip up again before the conference tournament.
• Ohio State needs to get focused, as the season could really unravel over the next couple weeks (vs. Illinois & Penn State, at Purdue).
• Kentucky looks like they're going to continue riding the roller coaster.  I would hope this week would tell us more about them, but in all likelihood they'll split their games with South Carolina and LSU, and we'll be right back here next week.

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