Look Ahead: San Francisco 49ers

15. August 2012  - Published by Jimmy Dinsmore

INSIDE THE NUMBERS
There was a lot of talk about the season Alex Smith had, and how his career was revitalized. Heck, there was even chatter about Smith being a Pro Bowl-caliber quarterback. But, in the NFC where the names Brees, Manning and Rodgers dominate, Smith does not belong beside those names. A closer look at his numbers reveals a QB who is nothing more than a backup fantasy QB. Yes, he threw for more than 3,100 yards last year (by far a career high), but a lot of those yards were meaningless from a fantasy perspective. In standard scoring systems, Smith only put up 20+ points one week last season and only threw for three TDs once all season. Compile that with very average or downright awful weeks nine times, and you have a QB who cannot carry your fantasy squad to a championship.

SCHEDULE
The 49ers have the 24th easiest schedule, according to Vegas. In fact, there’s few lockdown opponents lurking on the Niners schedule. Down the stretch, during the fantasy playoff weeksthey play the Rams, Dolphins, Patriots and Seahawks. That could be fantasy gold right when you need it. And it will certainly make the 49ers defense a top fantasy choice again this year.

STUD
Vernon Davis
was an inconsistent fantasy tight end last year. He showed flashes of greatness like his two-touchdown performance in week five, and then just broke his fantasy owners’ hearts at other times like his one catch for 32 yard performance in Week 14. But, then in the NFL playoffs, Davis went off, and finished strong. He had back-to-back two-touchdown games in the postseason, which is reason to put Davis in the top 10 of fantasy tight ends. GSI rankings have him at #5 overall, which is about where he belongs. More playoff-like performances await Davis, than Week 14 performances.

DUD
A four-running back rotation in San Francisco will greatly diminish the value of Frank Gore. The Niners signed Brandon Jacobs in the offseason, drafted LaMichael James in the second round to add to Gore and Kendall Hunter. That might be great for the Niners as a whole, but spells fantasy doom for those expecting big things from Frank Gore. Once a stalwart of the first round, Gore cannot be counted on as anything more than a RB2 at this point. Jacobs will steal his TDs, James will knock down his pass-catching attempts and Hunter is always lurking too. There’s just too many players involved which spells diminished touches to his 282 carries last year. Expect that number to be way down this year, and thus, steer clear of Gore.

SLEEPER
The Niners receiving corps is as crowded as their backfield, so trying to find who will be the standout performer is a challenge. Mario Manningham seems like a logical choice. With attention being on Vernon Davis, Michael Crabtree and the newly signed Randy Moss, Manningham will have friendly assignments and is savvy enough to put up decent numbers. Manningham could be a solid WR3 and a nice little late-round find for your fantasy squad. Expect similar numbers to last year, where he was in a very similar situation with the Giants. Pencil Manningham down for about 40-50 catches and around five touchdowns, which will bebetter than Randy Moss gets.

NEW ADDITIONS

The Niners were busy in the offseason, rading the Giants of some of their talent and adding a future Hall of Famer in Randy Moss. As mentioned, Brandon Jacobs joins the team to serve a role similar to what he did last year for the Giants. At age 35, Moss is more of a name than a talent. He was always one dimensional, known mostly as a deep threat. Now older,Moss has a limited skill set, and the Niners coaching staff knows it. Look for a limited set of plays and packages for Moss, which means limited opportunities for him. Jacobs is a big, hulking back, who never seemed to know how big he was. In New York, Jacobs tried to run small, and was accused of being soft. If he can learn to be a pounder (and hold onto the ball), the Niners can exploit him as a short-yardage back.

POSITION BATTLE
Where isn’t there a position battle in the Bay area? The backfield is loaded with talent, and the receiving corps is full of veterans wanting the ball. The presence of Manningham and Moss will have a positive impact on Michael Crabtree. He led the team with 72 receptions last year. Some believe that Manningham and Moss will make that number go down, but it may actually drive Crabtree to raise his performance, and he may also learn from the two vets. It may also mean more single coverage for Crabtree which will greatly benefit his fantasy value.

BENCH BUILDER
LaMichael James
has to earn his touches and playing time. It’s a crowded backfield situation. Niners running backs coach Tom Rathman, who knows a thing or two about performing in the NFL, believes the backfield by committee will sort itself in the preseason. So watch these games close to see how James performs. The rookie running back is dynamic. Playing time will be tough to come by, but with his specific skill set, James has tremendous upside. In dynasty/keeper leagues, James is worth a look as someone to stash on your bench. And, if/when Gore or Jacobs goes down hurt, be ready to pounce on the waiver wire for James.

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5 Reasons Giants Win

2. February 2012  - Published by Dan Clasgens

DEFENSIVE FRONT – There’s no questions a big part of the Giants winning six of their last seven contests has been the play of their defensive front since the unit has gotten fully healthy. The key in slowing down Tom Brady is applying pressure and New York is equipped to that as any team in the league.

RUNNING GAME – Unlike New England, the Giants’ offense is not one-dimensional. Ahmad Bradshaw and Brandon Jacbos are running on all cylinders right now and provide a perfect 1-2 punch to challenge a mediocre Patriots defense.

VICTOR CRUZ – This guy has been simply amazing. Along with Hakeem Nicks and Mario Manningham, Cruz has caused matchups for most defenses. With New England likely to match wide receiver turned DB Julian Edelman up against him on many snaps, Cruz could be saving his best performance for last.

ELI MANNING – Many in the Hoosier State dreamed of Manning Super Bowl in Indy and they’ve got one. Just not the one they were hoping for. Eli will have a chance to surpass his older brother Peyton in the house that he built. I couldn’t think of a better way to top off a career season.

GRONKOWSKI INJURY – The Pats’ best offensive weapon, tight end Rob Gronkowski, enters the game with an ankle injury. If he’s not able to perform at the same level in which he played at throughout his 20-touchdown season the Giants will gain a big advantage.

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5 Guys You Don't Want

2. September 2010  - Published by Dan Clasgens

After drafting two teams, having an auction and studying the latest Average Draft Position (ADP) numbers from around the web, I have found five guys going in the first six rounds that you don’t want on your team.

Understand, they could add value if they slip, but you’re better off letting some other owner investing such a high pick in them.

DeAngelo Williams (17th overall – ADP):  Williams has put up some big games over the past two seasons and undoubtedly warranted some heavy fantasy consideration.  My biggest concerns are his durability and the presence of Jonathan Stewart, who could easily prove to be the better fantasy option. Williams is a solid choice, but I find more consistency in Round 2 with my pick.

Ryan Grant (25th overall –ADP):  I can’t put my thumb on it, but Grant just doesn’t excite me. While he plays in a high-powered offense, the Packers’ running back lacks explosiveness. He won’t kill you as a RB2, but if you go with other positions in the first two rounds and count on him as your RB1 you will be disappointed.

Percy Harvin (61st overall – ADP):  Harvin’s stock is on the rise following the injury to Sidney Rice, but his struggles with migraines could become a weekly concern.  I favor a few other of the receivers surrounding him on the GSI Cheat Sheet, including Michael Crabtree, Mike-Sims Walker, and Dwayne Bowe. They are all safer picks.

Brandon Jacobs (78th overall –ADP):  After rating as the fourth highest scoring running back in 2008, Jacobs failed to hit 100 yards and finished with just five TD’s a year ago.  He is seemingly is always banged up, has apparently lost a step and is likely to play second fiddle to Ahmad Bradshaw. He is worth a look outside the top 100 overall, but not this early.

T.J. Houshmandzadeh (94th overall – ADP):  Houshmandzadeh only topped 77 yards twice a year ago and had his lowest TD total since 2003. At 33, he’s not getting any better and with so many questions surrounding the Seahawks’ offense you can find a better option at this point in the draft.

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GSI Mock Draft: Round Two

29. July 2009  - Published by Dan Clasgens

After a solid first round things started to get interesting in Round Two of the GSI Mock Draft...

RECAPS: Round One

ROUND TWO
13. BROERING - WR L. Fitzgerald (ARI)
14. SIMON - WR R. Moss (NE)
15. DINSMORE - WR A. Johnson (HOU)
16. BRYANT - RB S. Slaton (HOU)
17. WETZEL - RB C. Portis (WAS)
18. SCHMITT - WR R. Wayne (IND)
19. SIMS - WR C. Johnson (DET)
20. MURDICO - RB B. Jacobs (NYG)
21. ANSELMO - WR A. Boldin (ARI)
22. CLASGENS - QB P. Manning (IND)
23. FISCHER - QB T. Brady (NE)
24. HUMBERT - WR G. Jennings (GB)

POSITION BREAKDOWN: WR (7), RB (3), QB (2)

MY PICK: There are three quarterbacks that I consider Tier 1 candidates - Drew Brees, Peyton Manning, and Tom Brady. Brees (who was taken 4th overall) went in the opening round and I was a bit surprised to see Manning and Brady both fall to me with the 22nd overall pick. I was anticipating both of them going sooner and turning to my WR1 here, but I will take a franchise quarterback. Ultimately, Brady has more upside than Manning, but Peyton is the "safer" bet in my eyes. His '08 numbers were a bit disappointing for owners, but too many people disregarded his preseason knee surgery that limited him to just three TD passes in the team's first three contests. I'm not buying into the Harrison departing hurts him theory either. Harrison was a non-factor (no TD's or fewer than 50 yards) in 10 games last season and Manning still averaged 230 yards per game and threw 14 TD's in those outings.

BEST VALUE PICK: Some owners will be a bit gun shy to pull the trigger on Tom Brady, but they shouldn't be. The Patriots were confident enough in his recovery from knee surgery to send backup Matt Cassel to Kansas City. If the veteran signal caller even comes close to sniffing 2007 numbers, he will make the owners that passed him over for a wideout. Outside the top three or four receivers, the difference between No. 5 and No. 12 is marginal. The same can't be said at quarterback.

MOST LIKELY TO DISAPPOINT: Once again it's hard to nit pick some of the top 25 players taken in a fantasy draft, but if I had to pick a guy that could disappoint from this round I go with Steve Slaton. Just by looking at my Cheat Sheet you can see that I am not as high on him as Ron Bryant is as I have ranked as the No. 14 running back at this point. Slaton is solid and has the ability to score on any play. He may not carry a huge workload, but the production is there. However, I likely would have went after a receiver here.  It is a long time before Ron gets to pick again. He could have had a stud quarterback or an elite wideout and instead opted for a running back that most websites don't have in the Top 10. There will be more running backs to choose from in Round Three than there will be QB's and WR's.

FINAL TAKE: A solid round by all. As predicited the run on receivers came and came large. Expect Round Two in your league to be the same way.

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Playoff Picks: Divisional Round

8. January 2009  - Published by Dan Clasgens

Man each week the NFL season draws closer to an end, and each week the depression kicks in a little more. Still, there are some great games on tap this weekend and I am going to try to enjoy them to the fullest. Let's take a look each game as I tell you how I see things unfolding and give you my picks.

BALTIMORE (12-5) at TENNESSEE (13-3) - Titans favored by 3
Outlook: The Titans won the Week 5 meeting 13-10 in Baltimore and this one promises to be another slugfest. Baltimore comes into the game off an impressive opening-round victory and seem to be clicking on all cylinders. In the Week 5 meeting the Ravens controlled the clock and limited Tennessee to 47 yards rushing. Tennessee will need more effective running the ball this time around. Ravens' QB Joe Flacco threw two picks in the first meeting, but hasn't been turning the ball over as much of late. The two teams are extremely similar statisically in PaYd per game, RuYd per game, points scored, points allowed, give-aways, and take-aways. The game could easily come down to which team can put points on the board with their defense of special teams.

My Pick: Ravens 20, Titans 16...The one underdog I like to win straight up this week.

Fantasy Clicks: PLAY - Chris Johnson, LeRon McClain, Derrick Mason, Bo Scaife, Rob Bironas, Matt Stover, Ravens DEF, Titans DEF; DON'T PLAY - Joe Flacco, Kerry Collins, LenDale White, Any Titans' WR, Todd Heap.


ARIZONA (10-7) at CAROLINA (12-4) - Panthers favored by 10
Outlook: Talk about two teams that are completely different, the Cardinals and Panthers have gotten to this point in completely different manners. The Panthers have a top-notched running game and an above average defense. The Cardinals boast the league's most prolific passing attack, but struggle to move the ball on the ground and has played inconsistent this year on defense. The game is in Carolina and that could be the difference. Arizona is just 3-5 away from the friendly confines of the desert and and the Panthers are a perfect 8-0 at Bank of America Stadium. Kurt Warner has passed for twice as many TD's as Jake Delhomme (30:15), but Edgerrin James and Tim Hightower collectively were nearly outproduced by the Panthers' No. 2 running back Jonathan Stewart on the ground (913 yards to 836 yards). DeAngelo Williams finished thrid in the NFL in rushing with 1515 yards.

My Pick: Carolina 31, Arizona 20...The Cards will have some success on offense, but will not be able to stop the run this week.

Fantasy Clicks: PLAY - Jake Delhomme, Kurt Warner, DeAngelo Williams, Edgerrin James, Jonathan Stewart, Steve Smith, Larry Fitzgerald, Steve Breaston, Anquan Boldin (game-time decision), Mushin Muhammad, John Kasay, Neil Rackers; DON'T PLAY - Tim Hightower, Stephen Spach, Donte Rosario, Panthers DEF, Cardinals DEF.


PHILADELPHIA (10-6-1) at NY GIANTS (13-3) - Giants favored by 4.5

Outlook: I am still trying to figure out the Eagles even got this point. It wasn't too long ago I went and watched them tie the Bengals. Much has happened since then and the Eagles have won 4 of their last 5 games to get to this point. The Giants are the defending champs and come into the game well rested. While the Eagles finished the season red hot, the Giants were a bit sluggish down the stretch as they dealt with problems on and off the field. The two teams split in their head-to-head match-ups with Philly, winning 20-14 in Week 14 at the Meadowlands. Eli Manning has looked rough down the stretch (only averaging 153 PaYd per game w/out Plaxico). The G-Men will enjoy a healthy return of Brandon Jacobs.

My Pick: Giants 20, Eagles 14...the rubber match should be a good one, but I still like the champs coming off two weeks of rest.

Fantasy Clicks: PLAY - Donovan McNabb, Brian Westbrook, Brandon Jacobs, Derrick Ward, DeSean Jackson, Kevin Curtis, Domenik Hixon, Kevin Boss, Brent Celek, Eagles DEF, David Akers, John Carney; DON'T PLAY - Eli Manning, Correll Buckhalter, Amani Toomer, Giants DEF.


SAN DIEGO (9-8) at PITTSBURGH (12-4) - Steelers favored by 6

Outlook: A little over a month ago I pegged the Chargers as the most overrated team and declared Norv Turner one of the worst coaches in the league. It's amazing what five straight wins can do for job somebody's job security. Behind the Pro Bowl caliber play of Phillip Rivers and the speedy Darren Sproles San Diego has caught a bolt of lightning. Pittsburgh's defense is as good as ever and quarterback Ben Roethlisberger continues to find ways to win. The Steelers' ground attack has been disappointing, but it hasn't matter much as they've continue to beat good team after good team. They have the best homefield advantage of any team in the playoffs and that could make the difference here. San Diego lost at Pittsburhg in Week 11 in the first 11-10 game in NFL history.

My Pick: Pittsburgh 21, Chargers 14...as much as I hate them the Steelers are my Super Bowl pick right now and I am sticking with it!

Fantasy Clicks: PLAY - Ben Roethlisberger, Willie Parker, Hines Ward, Santonio Holmes, Vincent Jackson, Antonio Gates, Heath Miller, Steelers; DON'T PLAY - Phillip Rivers, Darren Sproles (fear the Steelers' D), LaDainian Tomlinson (hurt), Chris Chambers, Chargers DEF, Nate Kaeding, Jeff Reed.

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Fantasy: Next Year's Top 10

31. December 2008  - Published by Dan Clasgens

**SIGN-UP NOW TO GET IN MY PLAYOFF FANTASY LEAUGE **

I plan on working on my own 2009 Cheat Sheet and Top 50 Overall list this weekend, but I wanted to share the one from Rotoworld.com's Gregg Rosenthaul.  Of all the big media fantasy gurus, he's the one I most frequently agree with. However, I will promise you one thing, my list will be drastically different than his initial top 10:

1. Adrian Peterson
2. Maurice Jones-Drew
3. Matt Forte
4. Marion Barber
5. Steven Jackson
6. Chris Johnson
7. Brian Westbrook
8. Frank Gore
9. Andre Johnson
10. Calvin Johnson
11. Larry Fitzgerald
12. Brandon Jacobs

Just Missed, in no particular order: Michael Turner, DeAngelo Williams, Clinton Portis, Steve Smith, LaDainian Tomlinson, Drew Brees, Marshawn Lynch, Jay Cutler

 
OTHER TAKES HE HAD AS THE SEASON ENDED...
--Fred Jackson ran for 136 yards against the Patriots in one of the most impressive displays I saw all season. New England stacked the box with eight and nine guys every play, and Jackson's vision and leg drive were remarkable. He carried defenders on his back. Jackson finishes with 888 efficient yards from scrimmage and 37 catches on the season. He averaged more yards-per-carry than Marshawn Lynch and is a better receiver. That's bad news for Lynch owners because Jackson has earned a spot as the lesser half of a committee long-term.

--I still need to watch the tape, but Cedric Benson's 462 yards in his last three games will get him some job offers this off-season. His best chance to start, by far, should be staying in Cincinnati.

--Tony Romo's poor finish to the season, against very difficult competition, should keep his price tag enticingly low in next year's drafts.

--LaDainian Tomlinson has undeniably looked fresher the last two weeks. He ran much harder against a collapsing Bucs defense and a terrible Broncos defense, but don't forget the first 14 mediocre weeks and how easy his schedule was. Two good weeks doesn't return him to top-five prominence next year.

COMPLETE ARTICLE

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Fantasy: Resting Starters

26. December 2008  - Published by Dan Clasgens

Gregg Rosenthal of Rotoworld.com looks at some potential sitting stars in Week 17:

Giants: It's uncertain how they will handle it. My guess is they will play it halfway. Sit injured guys (Brandon Jacobs), and play most of their starters for most of the game. Iffy plays though.

Colts: As always, steer clear of your Colts in Week 17 with nothing on the line. Maybe they play a series, maybe a quarter, maybe a half. It's too risky.

Steelers: It's uncertain what they will do, but I'm guessing they will sit their players after they get a lead. I wouldn't use my Steelers at all. Gary Russell could be the next Willie Parker: breaking out in Week 17 while playing with reserves.

Ravens: They could potentially rest players if the Patriots lose at 1PM to the Bills. That's unlikely.

Cardinals
: They need to bounce back. Play your Cardinals with confidence against Seattle.

Titans: Vince Young will play at some point. It's uncertain how long starters will remain in, but I'd stay away from Chris Johnson. We'll update our player news all week for all the playing time developments.

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Game Time Decisions: Week 16

20. December 2008  - Published by Dan Clasgens

Here are some injures owners will want to keep their eyes on heading to kickoff:

QUARTERBACKS
Trent Edwards (groin) - listed as questionable, but expected to start
Jeff Garcia (calf) - has practiced limitedly for the past three days

RUNNING BACKS
Frank Gore (ankle) - chance are "remote" that he plays and is a shaky bet
Brandon Jacobs (knee) - could play, but how much he plays is unclear
Marion Barber (calf, toe) - hasn't practice all week; avoid him this week
Clinton Portis (backed) - missed practice FRI; his status is unclear for SUN
Marshawn Lynch (shoulder) - limited in practice on FRI; questionable but likely
Matt Forte (toe) - listed as questionable, but practice on SAT - should play
Kevin Smith (ankle) - limited in practice on FRI and questionable - should go

WIDE RECEIVERS

Anquan Boldin (shoulder) - a true game-time decision, not looking good to play
Laveranues Coles (thigh) - questionable; expected to be a full go at SEA
Derrick Mason (shoulder) - a full go in FRI's practice and will start vs. DAL
Domenik Hixon (foot) - listed as questionable and not a great match-up vs. CAR
Kevin Curtis (calf) - doubtful after missing practice again on FRI; stay away

MORE PLAYER NEWS (KFFL.com) 

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Pro Bowl Takes & Snubs

17. December 2008  - Published by Dan Clasgens

Here's some notes on the Pro Bowl selections (from Rotoworld.com):

--The Jets led all teams with seven players (Brett Favre, Thomas Jones, Alan Faneca, Nick Mangold, Leon Washington, Kris Jenkins, Darrelle Revis). Favre makes it despite -- brace yourselves now -- leading the league with 17 picks.

--Giants' Kicker John Carney (44) is the oldest Pro Bowler ever.

--After sending eight players last year, only two New England Patriots made it (first-timers Wes Welker and Stephen Gostkowski).

--Tennessee's Chris Johnson was the only rookie selection.

--You may think Joey Porter is a mouthy knucklehead, but he and his AFC-leading 17.5 sacks deserved a spot, while Dolphins teammate…

--...Ronnie Brown simply didn't. 10 TDs (4 in that fluky 'Wildcat-gone-wild!' game) were nice, but he has only three 100-plus-yard games and only one other game topping even 70 yards. Steve Slaton, Marshawn Lynch and even LaDainian Tomlinson deserved it more.

--The Bengals, Jags, Rams and Lions had zero reps. Shocker.

--Notable snubs: Atlanta's John Abraham (3rd in sacks with 15), Philip Rivers (#1 in passer rating/tied for #1 with 28 TDs, and Cutler goes?), Matt Ryan (Eli?), DeAngelo Williams (1,229 yards/14 TDs and they choose Portis?), Calvin Johnson, Brandon Jacobs, Chad Pennington (The Matt Ryan of the AFC…c'mon, Favre?). And Dallas Clark should have edged Antonio Gates.

COMPLETE PRO BOWL ROSTERS

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Around The NFL

16. December 2008  - Published by Dan Clasgens

Let's take a look at some of the latest headlines from around the NFL:

JACOBS 'LIKELY' TO GO AGAINST PANTHERS (Newark Star-Ledger)
Multiple sources in the New York area say Brandon Jacobs is likely to play against the Panthers. The Newark Star Ledger and NY Daily News echo a similar report from NBC's Andrea Kremer. Jacobs, the Giants' leading rusher, did not play in Sunday night's loss to the Giants...MORE

PALMER UNLIKELY TO PLAY AGAIN THIS YEAR (Dayton Daily News)
Even though Carson Palmer's rehab on his injured right elbow is going well and he continues to "cut it loose" with workout throws, the Bengals' quarterback was all but ruled out of playing in the final two games against the Cleveland Browns and Kansas City Chiefs...MORE

PETERSON RESIGNS FROM CHIEFS (Kansas City Star)
The day began like most Mondays this season, with the Kansas City Chiefs stinging from another defeat. It ended in most extraordinary fashion, with Carl Peterson out after 20 years as the Chiefs’ president and general manager. Chairman Clark Hunt called the move — which will take place after the team’s final game this season Dec. 28 at Cincinnati — a mutual decision...MORE

VIKINGS' WILLIAMS COULD MISS PLAYOFFS (Minneapolis Star-Tribune)
The Vikings will face the NFL's top-ranked rushing offense Sunday against Atlanta, but they will do so without run-stuffing Pro Bowl defensive tackle Pat Williams, who might be lost for the season. Vikings coach Brad Childress announced Monday that Williams suffered a broken right shoulder in Sunday's 35-14 victory at Arizona and will be sidelined two to six weeks...MORE

ZORN SHOULDERS BLAME FOR 'SKINS COLLAPSE (Washington Post)
With his team in a free fall that has all but eliminated it from playoff contention, Washington Redskins Coach Jim Zorn turned introspective yesterday, saying that any evaluation of the Redskins' collapse -- five losses in their last six games, including a debacle Sunday in Cincinnati -- must start with Zorn himself...MORE

JAURON FINALLY SIGNS EXTENSION (ESPN.com)
Despite going on a 1-7 slide that left the Buffalo Bills out of the playoffs, coach Dick Jauron signed an extension, sources told ESPN. The deal runs through the 2011 season. ESPN and the NFL Network reported on Oct. 26 that the coach had agreed to the deal. The Bills were 5-2 at that point and in contention in the AFC East...MORE

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