Reds Rants: Three Series In

11. April 2013  - Published by Dan Clasgens

The Cincinnati Reds are about 1/3 of the way through a brutal April schedule and after three series versus play-off caliber teams in the Angels, Nationals and Cardinals the team stands at 5-4. While there have been encouraging signs, there have also been some reason for concern:

THE GOOD
--Shin-Soo Choo:  Defensive issues aside he has a 1.197 OPS.
--Todd Frazier: Hitting .333 and leads team with 3 HR (tied) and 10 RBI.
--Brandon Phillips: Shuffled to the cleanup spot early in year and been clutch.
--Aroldis Chapman: Staying in closer role has him looking comfortable (5 IP, 2 SV, 9 K).
--Johnny Cueto: Could have beat Jered Weaver and won vs. Stephen Strasburg.
--Xavier Paul: Paul is 4 for 9 (.444) with a homer and six RBI. Been clutch off the bench.

THE BAD
--Ryan Ludwick: Losing your cleanup hitter for half the year on Opening Day blows.
--Joey Votto:  The power outage continues. Last HR came on 6/24 vs MIN (54 games).
--Homer Bailey: Writing off the 7 ER allowed to STL as a bad day. I’m still hoping for big things.
--Mike Leake: His leash will be short if he can’t get better than his first start vs. WAS.

THE UGLY
--Chris Heisey: Has done little with his opportunity for playing time (.188 OBP).
--Zack Cozart: In his 31 at bats the shortstop has more K’s (5) than hits (4).
--J.J. Hoover: The reliever was tagged with two of the team’s four losses.

REASON FOR HOPE
--Tony Cingrani: Has a 1.63 ERA in 40 career minor-league starts dating back to 2011.

REASON FOR CONCERN
--Sean Marshall: Left shoulder tendoinits has forced the key setup man to 15-day DL.

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Reds: Season Props

28. March 2013  - Published by Dan Clasgens

Using the projected stats from the industry leader, Fantistics, we offer up our annual Reds Over/Under Prop Bets...

My pick (bold)

REDS – Over 91 wins | Under 91 wins

JOEY VOTTO - Over 100 RBI | Under 100 RBI
JAY BRUCEOver 35 HR | Under 35
BRANDON PHILLIPS – Over 16 SB | Under 16 SB
TODD FRAZIER – Over .265 BA| Under .265 BA
SHIN-SOO CHOOMore HR than SB | More SB than HR
RYAN LUDWICK – Over 121 Hits | Under 121 Hits
ZACK COZARTOver .304 OBP | Under .304 OBP
DEVIN MESORACO – Over 396 AB | Under 396 AB

AROLDIS CHAPMAN Over 41 saves | Under 41 saves
JOHNNY CUETOOver 16 wins | Under 16 wins
MAT LATOSOver 3.53 ERA | Under 3.53 ERA
HOMER BAILEY Over 173 K | Under 173 K
BRONSON ARROYO – Over 1.129 WHIP | Under 1.129 WHIP
MIKE LEAKE – Over 183 IP | Under 183 IP

MORE MLB PROPS (PinnacleSports.com)

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Baker, LaRussa Feud Grows

2. July 2012  - Published by Dan Clasgens

The war of worlds is going on big time between Cincinnati Reds manager Dusty Baker and former St. Louis Cardinals skipper Tony LaRussa.

 

The two have never been fond of each other, but after Johnny Cueto and Brandon Phillips were both left off of the NL All-Star roster Baker had some choice words for his former rival, who is managing the National League team despite retiring prior to this season.

 

A strong case could be made for both Cueto and Phillips. Both were key figures in a ugly bench-clearing brawl between the bitter division rivals in 2012, a year the Reds knocked off the Cardinals to win the division.

 

“A snub like that looks bad. Johnny and Brandon were at the center of a skirmish between us and the Cardinals,” Baker told reporters on Sunday. “Some of the Cardinals who aren’t there anymore are making some of the selections.”

LaRussa promptly responded with equally volitale words to Baker.

"Which of these guys would he like me to kick off? I'd like to know that. There's a second baseman over in Arizona (Aaron Hill) who has credentials to be on the team,” LaRussa told the St. Louis Post-Dispatch. "I don't take that kind of (bleep). That's typical ... (from Baker) and that's unacceptable. There's no question I did the right thing. I haven't been this ticked off since ... well, nothing."

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Leadoff Woes Limit Reds

29. May 2012  - Published by Dan Clasgens

As good as the Reds offense has looked lately, the struggles at the top continue to hold down the team
(from Lance McAlister):

Reds are hitting .166 in leadoff spot....30th in MLB.
A's are 29th hitting .199.
Reds OBP from leadoff spot is .200. Orioles are 29th at .258.
Reds have 52 K, 9 BB, 1 SB from leadoff spot

From leadoff this year
29 starts: Cozart 25 for 127 .197/.233, 6 BB, 30 K
8 starts: Stubbs 3 for 36 .083/.215, 2 BB, 13 K
6 starts: Phillips 5 for 24 .208/.240, 1 BB, 4 K
3 starts: Heisey 2 for 14, .143/.143, 0 BB, 4 K
2 starts: Harris 0 for 8, .000/.000, 0 BB, 1 K

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Reds Lock Phillips Up

10. April 2012  - Published by Dan Clasgens

Just a week after they made Joey Votto the highest paid player in franchise history, the Cincinnati Reds locked up another key piece by signing second baseman Brandon Phillips to a 6-year, $72 million deal.

Former Reds GM Jim Bowden broke the story earlier today on his XM Radio Show. Bowden tweeted that Phillips would become the first 36-year old player at the position to make $12 million by the deal’s end.

The 30-year old (31 in June) has hit at least 17 home runs in each of the last six seasons. In 2011, he hit a career-best .300 with 18 homers and 82 RBIs and won his third straight Gold Glove.

The team guaranteed Votto a 12-year, $251.5 million deal, taking the one week total to $323.4 million in contracts in the past week alone for the Reds.

The team has taken some criticism and left many scratching their heads where the money is going to come. A report earlier this week indicated the Reds had saved up some of their revenue share to pay for the Votto deal. The thought is a portion of Phillips money will likely be deferred.

A 6-year deal for Phillips is a bit of a reach and could be something the team avoids down the road.

MY TAKE: I get the thought of many fans wondering how the team is going to flip the bill for this. But get over it. Stop complaining and enjoy the fact that you are not about to be stripped of your best player because “we can’t afford it” in this market.

Take note big market teams everywhere, we’re not small anymore!  As sports fans in Cincinnati we’ve been conditioned to the small-market, cheap mentality. Compared to Mike Brown, and even Carl Linder (RIP) for that matter, Bob Castellini is more than a night in a shining armor.

Since his arrival to the team has put in place an amazing organization that has excelled in every aspect of the game including player development, community outreach, and most importantly a deep pool of talent that produces winning on consistency. The fact he backed up his talk with his wallet and kept Votto and Phillips around shows that Castellini is a man of his word and that having a plan actually works.

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Fantasy Primer: Second Base

9. March 2012  - Published by Dan Clasgens

We get you ready for the upcoming fantasy baseball season by taking an in-depth look at second basemen:

TOP FIVE
1. Robinson Cano (NYY)
2. Dustin Pedroia (BOS)
3. Ian Kinsler (TEX)
4. Brandon Phillips (CIN)
5. Ben Zobrist (TB)

UP CLOSE
Dan Uggla (ATL)
– After batting just .177 in his first 86 games, Uggla turned around his 2011 campaign with a 33-game hitting streak.  Owners can overlook the terrible contact rate that led to him finishing the season with a measly .233 average due to the fact he jacked a career-high 36 long balls. That type of power at this position is rare and keeps Uggla as a top 10 option at the position.

BREAKOUT AHEAD
Brandon Phillips (CIN)
– Phillips hit a career-high .303 last season. Over the past two seasons though we’ve watched his HR and SB base both drop.  He’s entering a contract year this season and with the Reds opening to hit in the leadoff spot this year expect plenty of chances to produce. His power numbers may go down, but not by much. Expect plenty of runs and stolen bases though.

BUST CANDIDATE
Chase Utley (PHI)
–His name carries plenty of weight and will cause many owners to overpay for Utley. While he still has some upside, at 33 he is on a steady decline. His OPS has dropped in each of the past four seasons and he’s missed 40 plus games each of the past two years.   He’s still capable of delivering a .280/20/80 batting line, but will need to stay healthy to do so.

FUTURE STAR
Dustin Ackley (SEA)
– Quietly loss in a dismal offensive season in Seattle in 2011 were the numbers put up by the 24-year old after his June call-up.  He hit .273 with seven triples, six homers and 36 RBI in 333 at-bats last year and is off to a hot start this spring. He’s slated to hit atop the Mariners’ batting order and is definitely worth keeping a close eye on as the season approaches.

FANTASY 101
There is more depth at the position than in recent years with as four Tier 1 options. Grabbing one of those guys could be worth a pick in the early rounds. After that look for value and find players that can help in a specific category or two and draft accordingly. When building a bench, look for those players that have multiple-position eligibility as they typically make better bench fodder.

COMPLETE RANKINGS | LATEST ADP

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Phillips, Votto Win Gold Gloves

2. November 2011  - Published by Dan Clasgens

Rawlings announced that Reds 2B Brandon Phillips and 1B Joey Votto are 2011 Gold Glove Award winners.

Phillips earns his third Rawlings Gold Glove Award and his second in consecutive years. He also won it in 2008. Phillips is the first Reds second baseman to win back-to-back Gold Gloves since Pokey Reese did it in 1999 and 2000 and the first Reds second baseman to win it 3 or more times since Joe Morgan won it 5 straight years from 1973-1977. He joins Johnny Bench (10), David Concepcion (5), Joe Morgan (5), Cesar Geronimo (4), Eric Davis (3), Barry Larkin (3) and Roy McMillan (3) as Reds players to win 3 or more Gold Gloves.

Votto becomes the first Reds first baseman ever to win a Rawlings Gold Glove and the first player in 16 years, other than Albert Pujols, Adrian Gonzalez, Derrek Lee, Todd Helton, J.T. Snow or Mark Grace to win the award at first base.

COMPLETE ARTICLE (MLB.com)

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Reds: Salary Outlook

10. August 2011  - Published by Dan Clasgens

Some good stuff from Lance McAlister's blog...

Consider some of the dollars the Reds committed have over the next couple of years. This does not factor in arbitration dollars for guys like Stubbs, Bailey, Leake, Bray, Ondrusek and Volquez over next couple years.


Offseason signings
Arroyo: '11 $6.5M, '12 $7m, '13 6.5M
Cueto: '11 $3.4M, '12 $5.4M, '13 $7.4M, '14 $10M, '15 $10M*
Bruce: '11 $2.75 M, '12 $5M, '13 $7.5M, '14 $10M, '15 $12M, '16 $12.5M, '17 $13M*
Votto: '11 $5.5M, '12 $9.5M, '13 $17M
(*team option)


2011:
Cordero $12M
Phillips $11M
Votto $5.5M
Arroyo $6.5M
Rolen $6.5M
Cueto $3.4M
Hernandez $3M
Bruce $2.75M
Chapman $1M
That's 9 players making $51.6M in '11, representing 64% of '11 payroll ($80.8)


2012:
Phillips $12M (If option picked up)
Votto $9.5M
Arroyo $7M
Rolen $6.5M
Cueto $5.4M
Bruce $5M
Chapman $2M
(Minus)Cordero $12M, Hernandez $3M
That's 7 players at $47.4M in '12, representing 61% of their '11 payroll ($80.8M)


2013:

Votto $17M
Cueto $10M
Bruce $7.5M
Arroyo $6.5M
Hanigan $2M
Chapman $2M
(Minus) Rolen $6.5M, Phillips $12M
That's 6 players at $45M in '13, representing 56% of their '11 payroll ($80.8M)

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The Next Barry Larkin

8. July 2011  - Published by Dan Clasgens

After watching Dave Concepcion (1970-1988) and Barry Larkin (1986-2004) man the position for nearly four decades, the Cincinnati Reds have struggled to find their next great shortstop.

The team called up Zack Cozart earlier this week. It remains to be seen rather or not Cozart is going to be able to fill those shoes. Most analysts don’t expect him to reach those heights.

Second base hasn’t been nearly as big of a problem, at least not since Brandon Phillips arrived in 2006. Considering that Phillips has had 20 different double-team partners during his five-year tenure with the team you can see the team’s dilemma.

Here’s the complete list:

--Zack Cozart
--Paul Janish
--Edgar Renteria
--Orlando Cabrera
--Miguel Cairo
--Drew Sutton
--Chris Valaika
--Alex Gonzalez
--Jerry Hairston Jr.
--Adam Rosales
--Jolbert Cabrera
--Juan Castro
--Jeff Keppinger
--Danny Richar
--Enrique Cruz
--Pedro Lopez
--Rich Aurilia
--Royce Clayton
--Felipe Lopez
--Ray Olmedo

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MLB All-Star Rosters Set

3. July 2011  - Published by Dan Clasgens

The rosters have been announced for the 82nd MLB All-Star Game...

NATIONAL LEAGUE
AMERICAN LEAGUE

STARTERS
1B Prince Fielder (MIL)
2B Rickie Weeks (MIL)
3B Placido Polanco (PHI)
SS Jose Reyes (NYM)
OF Ryan Braun (MIL)
OF Lance Berkman (STL)
OF Matt Kemp (LAD)
C Brian McCann (ATL)

RESERVES
C Yadier Molina (STL)
SS Starlin Castro (CHI)
3B Chipper Jones (ATL)
2B Brandon Phillips (CIN)
1B Gaby Sanchez (FLA)
SS Troy Tulowitzki (COL)
1B Joey Votto (CIN)
OF Carlos Beltran (NYM)
OF Jay Bruce (CIN)
OF Matt Holliday (STL)
OF Hunter Pence (HOU)
OF Justin Upton (ARI)

PITCHERS
SP Matt Cain (SF)
SP Roy Halladay (PHI)
SP Cole Hamels (PHI)
SP Jair Jurrjens (ATL)
SP Clayton Kershaw (LAD)
SP Cliff Lee (PHI)
SP Tim Lincecum (SF)
SP Ryan Vogelsong (SF)
RP Heath Bell (SD)
RP Tyler Clippard (WAS)
RP Joel Hanrahan (PIT)
RP Jonny Venters (ATL)
RP Brian Wilson (SF)

STARTERS
1B Adrian Gonazlez (BOS)
2B Robinson Cano (NYY)
3B Alex Rodriguez (NYY)
SS Derek Jeter (NYY)
OF Jose Bautista (TOR)
OF Curtis Granderson (NYY)
OF Josh Hamilton (TEX)
C Alex Avila (DET)
DH David Ortiz (BOS)

RESERVES
C Russell Martin (NYY)
C Matt Wieters (BAL)
3B Adrian Beltre (TEX)
SS Asdrubal Cabrera (CLE)
1B Miguel Cabrera (DET)
2B Howard Kendrick (LAA)
OF Michael Cuddyer (MIN)
OF Jacoby Ellsbury (BOS)
OF Matt Joyce (TB)
OF Carlos Quentin (CHW)
DH Michael Young (TEX)

PITCHERS
SP Josh Beckett (BOS)
SP Gio Gonzalez (OAK)
SP Felix Hernandez (SEA)
SP David Price (TB)
SP James Shields (TB)
SP Justin Verlander (DET)
SP Jered Weaver (LAA)
SP C.J. Wilson (TEX)
RP Aaron Crow (KC)
RP Brandon League (SEA)
RP Chris Perez (CLE)
RP Mariano Rivera (NYY)
RP Jose Valverde (Tigers)

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