It was pathetic, yet predictable, that we recently heard the Cincinnati Reds blame their awful season on injuries.  This excuse is flat out wrong.  This season's fate was very predictable well before the injury bug appeared.  It was easy to foresee doom after many, many poor decisions made by the Front Office over the last three years.  Here are the Top Ten Worst Front Office Decisions that led to this Reds debacle that we currently have.  But before that... the gloating:  there is no hindsight/ 20-20  judgement on any of these moves- every one of these moves was criticized by yours truly WHEN THEY HAPPENED.  On with the list...

10.  Signing Alex Gonzalez to a three- year, $14.5 million dollar contract:  Quit complaining that he never played.  When he did play, he was awful.  He was hitting .207/ .254/ .295 this year.  He contributed more last year by NOT playing at all.

9.  Trading Edwin Encarnancion, Josh Roenicke, and Zach Stewart to Toronto for 3B Scott Rolen:  Sure Rolen is a major upgrade over Encarnacion, but he is in his mid- 30s, injury- prone, expensive, and only signed for one more year.  Giving up two of the five prospects for Rolen was a steal for the Blue Jays and a ditch digger for the Reds.

8.  Signing Corey Patterson to a one- year deal to play CF in 2008:  Dusty Baker campaigned to get Patterson and he stubbornly gave him 344 at bats to hit .207/ .254/ .295 and drag the Reds down.  And Baker wondered why people thought Patterson was dating his daughter.

 7.  Signing Edwin Encarnacion to a two- year contract worth $7.6 million dollars:  This led to GM Walt Jocketty having to throw in Roenicke and Stewart to get the Blue Jays to take Encarnacion off of the Reds' hands.  If the Reds decline him arbitration, he is a free agent, the Reds still have Roenicke and Stewart, the Reds are still in 5th place, but they have a brighter future.

6.  Drafting Yonder Alonso instead of Gordon Beckham in the first round of the 2008 Draft:  One of the Reds' biggest holes to fill this off- season is shortstop.  There is no capable shortstop on the roster or in their minor leagues (except present second baseman Brandon Phillips).  That would not be a problem if they would have taken Beckham, who was scooped up immediately with the next pick by the White Sox.  Beckham is presently hitting .299/ .373/ .470 at the Major League level.  Instead, the Reds have a guy pushing Joey Votto, one of their few indepensible players.

5.  Trading Adam Dunn:  Public pressure trumped logic and production and the Reds sent Dunn to Arizona for peanuts.  Now, Dunn plays first base for the Naitonals and is hitting .285/ .417/ .580 while the Reds roll out Lance Nix and Johnny Gomes into leftfield.  Gomes is a good backup for the Reds and Nix is... a good backup in Triple- A.

4.  Signing Willy Taveras to a two- year contract worth $6.25 million:  What made anyone think Taveras was a major leaguer?  His history, his statistics, and his past teams' transactions involving him should have kept Jocketty (and Baker- he lobbied for Taveras) away.  It kept every other MLB team away.  The Reds outbid themselves for a Triple- A speedster.  They must eat his contract for next year and let Drew Stubbs play center field every day.  Speaking of Stubbs...

3.  Drafting Drew Stubbs instead of SP Tim Lincecum:  Stubbs is an excellent defender who can steal a base and has a great baseball makeup.  He is not an impact player.  He may struggle to hit .280 or get on- base more than .340.  A huge upgrade over Taveras- absolutely, but he is not Lincecum.  Drafting Lincecum would have given the Reds a #1 starter the past three years and would have made a difference of 8 or 10 more wins in the standings.  He would have brought more fans to the park, which would, in turn, bring more money into the Front Office, which would mean more money to spend on payroll, international signings, etc.

2.  Signing Francisco Cordero to a four- year, $47 million contract:  If you are the Yankees, Mets or the Red Sox, you can pay your closer $12 million a year.  Almost every else realizes that closers grow on trees so this is a great area to save money.  Todd Coffey (if he were still here), Arthur Rhodes, Bill Bray (last year), Jared Burton (last year), and David Weathers (up until last week) would have produced almost the same results for a lot less money.  With this available cash, the Reds could have spent on Adam Dunn or a real center fielder like Tori Hunter.

1.  Hiring Dusty Baker:  The guy is an ace with the media and has many of them snowed, but he cannot fool all of us.  He is the absolute worst manager AT ANY LEVEL when it comes to making out a lineup.  He lobbied for Patterson (.238 OBP) and Taveras (.276 OBP and no power) and then played them more than anyone else would have while also batting them at the top of the lineup.  In the two- hole, he used Alex Gonzalez (.254 OBP) and more recenltly, Paul Janish (.291 OBP).  What we have here is stubborn idiocy.  Joey Votto is going to hit .315 with 25 home runs in about 500 at bats and only have 80 RBI because nobody was ever on base in front of him.

Honorable Mention:  Drafting Devon Mesoraco who is looking like a huge bust.

Do not let the Reds fool you.  They - not the injury bug- are responsible for another losing season.  Is it fixable?  Stay tuned... I have some ideas.

MLB cincinnati reds, alex gonzalez, edwin encarnacion, corey patterson, yonder alonso, adam dunn, willy taveras, drew stubbs, francisco cordero, dusty baker, devon mesoraco

The Cincinnati Reds' off- season has been interesting on a number of fronts...

1.  Outside of the Yankees, owners have decided to cut back in payroll in anticipation of an economic downturn at their turnstiles.  Either that, or they are using the state of the economy as an excuse to cut back in payroll.  As a result, the Reds may not reach that $80 payroll figure that they had last year.

2.  As a result of the lack of spending on the free agent market (outside of the top- tier free agents), the price tags for many free agents should go down in late January.  Pat Burrell, Adam Dunn, Ben Sheets and others will not be able to get the four-year, $60 million contracts they were hoping for and this should help the Reds land Burrell.  In my Realistic Off- Season Plan for the Reds, I advocated the move to sign Burrell to a two- year, $30 million contract.  This lets him try the market when economic times will be better and it lets the Reds move Joey Votto to left field in two years to make room for Yonder Alonso.  Burrell is not Adam Dunn.  He has all of Dunn's positives and not as many of his negatives; he is right- handed, strikes out less, gets on base slightly more, plays slightly better defense, and is in better shape.  Check out the numbers:

Dunn's on base percentage the last four years:  .386, .386, .365, .387

Burrell's OBP the last four years:  .367, .400, .388, .389

Dunn's slugging:  .513, .554, .490, .540

Burrell's slugging:  .507, .502, .502, .504

Dunn's strikeouts:  164, 165, 194, 168

Burrell's strikeouts:  136, 120, 131, 160

Burrell could be had for about $10 million a year come late January if he is still available.  He would bat fourth (between Joey Votto and Jay Bruce).  He would help Bruce and Edwin Encarnacion (batting sixth) reach 100 RBIs because he is on base so much and he would make the awful pickup of Willy Taveras a lot easier to stomach.  Speaking of Taveras...

3.  A leadoff hitter's most important attribute is NOT speed.  That is a common misperception.  The most important thing a leadoff hitter can do is get on base for the big bats behind him to knock him in.  Taveras' on base numbers the last four years:  .308, .367, .333, .325.  If .345 to .355 is league average, Taveras' numbers are awful.  Since he does not get on base much, the Reds' #2 and #3 hitters, Brandon Phillips (who has his own on- base issues) and Votto, will not be driving in many runs.  It would not suprise me to see Votto hit .315/ .375/ .490 with 28 home runs and 85 RBIs.  The Reds won so much last year with Jerry Hairston Jr. in the lineup because he got on base for Phillips, Votto and Bruce.  Hopefully, the Reds can still sign Hairston and subsequently, bench Taveras.  If not, Reds fans will be comparing Taveras to Corey Patterson by June and though its a bit of a stretch, it is not too far off.

4.  Which brings us to Patterson.  The Washington Nationals signed him to a contract last week that confirmed three theories:  A.)  Nationals General Manager Jim Bowden is the worst GM of all time.  B.)  Nationals G.M. Jim Bowden has more incriminating photos of his bosses than any other employee in our country.  C.)  The Nationals have have been the worst baseball franchise of the last five years and with moves like signing Patterson coupled with poor drafts and the inability to lure quality free agents, they are assured of being the worst baseball franchise for the next five years.  To further emphasize this point... Mark Teixeira turned down $20 million more money (same length of contract) to go to his hometown Nationals in order to compete for a pennant with the Yankees.  They cannot even overpay for free agents to go there.

5.  Getting back to my Realistic Off- Season Plan for the Reds... RP Juan Cruz is still out there and Jonathan Sanchez is available through trade from the Giants.  There is still some hope to overcome an awful Taveras decision!

MLB reds, pat burrell, adam dunn, ben sheets, yonder alonso, joey votto, willy taveras, jerry hairston jr, brandon phillips, jay bruce, corey patterson, jim bowden, mark teixeira, juan cruz, johnathan sanchez

Reds' GM Walt Jocketty made official on Tuesday what every Reds' fan out there knew months ago, Corey Patterson will not be part of the 2009 Cincinnati Reds.  He should've never been part of the 2008 Cincinnati Reds and definitely should not have been part of the '08 Reds in August and September.

Patterson, one of nine Reds headed to free agency, won't be re-signed by the club.

"I don't think he'll be back," Reds general manager Walt Jocketty told the team's website. "We'll turn the page."

Jocketty admitted Patterson became a "hot-button issue" with fans.  

Check out some of the memories of the Corey Patterson Era (from Lance McAlsiter, TheLotD.com):

• 3-million dollar contract in spring training
• 0-4 on opening day
• 0-8 May 25 vs San Diego
• .205 batting average in 366 ab's
• Demoted to AAA in May....recalled five games later
• Batting average tied for worst in ML's among hitters with at least 375 plate appearances (Brandon Inge, Tigers)
• Made 135 appearances, including a team high 82 starts in CF
• Reds record when he started: 33-49 .402.....41-39 when he didn't start (.513)
• Batting average was below .200 for 68 consecutive games, from June 12 to August 29
• From May 25 to end of the season the highest his average climbed was .208
• 14 stolen bases, 9 caught stealing
• .238 on base percentage
• Best month: August .235 (81 ab's)
• Worst month: July .111 (18 ab's)
• Hit .146 vs St Louis 6 for 41
• Hit .143 vs Chicago 4 for 28
• Hit .500 vs Florida 10 for 20

MLB reds, corey patterson, walt jocketty

So many Reds insights, so little time...

THE GOOD

• RHP Ramon Ramirez has been a pleasant surprise... to some.  To others, mainly the sabermeticians, this is no surprise.  Stat wizards have long discounted E.R.A. as a primary measure of a pitcher's worth since E.R.A. depends so much on defense and the bullpen, forces outside a pitcher's control.  Instead, they look at strikeouts per nine innings, walks per nine innings, and home runs allowed.  Ramirez could be their poster boy for this argument.  His combined minor league E.R.A. was a decent, but not eye- catching, 3.70 in 2007 and 3.59 in 2008.  His other minor league numbers in 2008 of 9K/ 9 IP, 3.5 BB/ 9 IP, and 0.9 HR/ 9 are eye- popping and tell us that this kid is a major leaguer.  In his three appearances so far with the Reds, he has 16 IP, 12 K, 6 BB, and 2 HRA- right in line with his minor league numbers.  Ramirez throws a fastball in the low 90s, a below average slider, and a low 80s changeup.  Oddly enough, it is his changeup that he throws the most (58% of the time so far with the Reds) because he throws it for strikes much more often than the other pitches.  Its not all good news though.  His current BABIP (batting average of balls put into play) is a tiny .108, which means that when batters are making contact, they are hitting the ball right at people.  This rate cannot continue- its impossible.  Also, very few starters in the major leagues can make it with just two good pitches.  My prediction?  He develops into a solid mid reliever or setup reliever.
  
  
• Even George Grande can figure out that the Reds need a big bat in the lineup for 2009 or contention seems unrealistic already.  The 2008 free agent slugger list is not an impressive one:  Pat Burrell, Adam Dunn, and Mark Teixeira head the list.  Dunn is not a possibility and Burrell and Teixeira may cost over $20 million a year on a multi-year deal.  That leaves the Reds with just one option- trades.  The Rockies' Matt Holliday has been mentioned as a target and he is a availible this winter because Holliday is a free agent after next year, the Rockies feel like he is already demanding too much for an extention, and the Rockies can get more value for him before the 2009 season.  The Reds could roll the dice and trade multiple young players (Homer Bailey, Chris Valaika, and Chris Dickerson?) for one year of Matt Holliday and then they could maybe win 82 to 85 games if they get a lot brakes.

THE BAD

• Even if the Reds do win 85 games next year with Matt Holliday, that total can no longer win the NL Central or NL Wild Card.  A few years ago, 85 wins would surely mean the playoffs, but with the drastic improvements of the Cubs, the Brewers, the Phillies, and the Mets over the last year, 85 wins gets you a seat on the couch in October.  Yes, the Brewers may lose both C.C. Sabathia and Ben Sheets to free agency and the Mets are an old team, but the Brewers' farm system is loaded and the Mets' financial resources usually put them in contention.  The bottom line?... there is too big of a gap to close between the Reds and playoffs for the Reds to gamble on Matt Holliday.  I would trade away Brandon Phillips, Aaron Harang, and Bronson Arroyo for a ton of young talent that can help in two or three years.  The Oakland A's subscribed to this theory this past year as they traded away Dan Haren, Rich Harden, Nick Swisher and Joe Blanton for loads for top minor league talent because they figured they could not catch the Angels this year.  Now the A's have realistic hope that they may catch the Angels in 2009 or 2010.


• The Reds did not dump the city of Sarasota in its bid for a better Spring Training complex.  The city of Sarasota dumped the Reds.  Sarasota voted to not expand and update their baseball facilities for the Reds, thus forcing the Reds to Arizona.  They are, however, going to vote to expand and update their facilities if the Boston Red Sox commit to moving to their city.  Sarasota figures that the Red Sox will bring in a lot more fans (and that means more money) than the Reds ever will.  How sad is that?

THE UGLY

• The local media, which has been mostly kind and patient with Dusty Baker, has started to show some dissatisfaction with Baker in that he did not live up to their expectations.  I, on the other hand, am very satisfied that Baker lived up to my expectations.  The difference here is that I expected Baker to be the worst manager in the Major Leagues and he did not disappoint.  And continues to not disappoint... 1.)  On August 30th, Ramon Ramirez went seven innings, giving up three earned runs against the Giants, while striking out six and allowing seven baserunners.  The rookie's reward?  Baker sent him to the bullpen in favor of Josh Fogg.  Luckily, Fogg, who will never pitch for the Reds again, hurt himself in his next start and now Baker is forced to take a look at Ramirez as a starter.  2.)  Why is Baker playing anyone will not be with the Reds next year?  Corey Patterson, Andy Phillips, Paul Bako and Javier Valentin should never see the field so we can evaluate Wilikin Castillo (he's terrible), Danny Herrera, Ryan Hannigan, Paul Janish (put Jeff Keppinger at third and Edwin Encarnacion in left field), Adam Rosales, and Drew Stubbs (why is he at home?).  Baker wants to play the veterans to "(keep) the integrity of the races and the game".  What?  Who is that helping?  The Cubs?  The Phillies?  The Brewers?  It sure is not helping the future of the Reds.
  
  
• When Baker puts a lineup on the field that includes Patterson, Bako, and any pitcher, he is giving away eight to twelve at bats to the opposition before the game even starts.
  
  
• Another reason why I would trade the veteran stars on this team over the winter and stockpile young talent is because I believe the Reds have no hope for contention while they have a stubborn, uniformed, misdirected manager who has never, ever, learned from his mistakes.  Start building for the post- Dusty era.

MLB reds, ramon ramirez, pat burrell, adam dunn, mark teixeira, homer bailey, chris vala ika, chris dickerson, dan haren, rich harden, nick swisher, joe blanton, dan haren, rich harden, nick swisher, joe blanton, brandon phillips, aaron harang, bronson arroyo, dusty bake, corey patterson, andy phillips, paul bako, javier valentin, wilikin castillo, danny herrera, ryan hannigan, paul janish, edwin encarnacion, jeff keppinger

Many Reds fans have turned the page on the 2008 season and started to tenuously root for the Bengals.  Those fans are missing some interesting times in Redsland; so much so that I will need two Reds Musings this week.  So tune back in on Wednesday for Part II.  In the meantime...

THE GOOD

• With the signing of 2008 first round draft pick, Yonder Alonso, the Reds have completed one of their more successful amateur signing periods in recent memory.  The triumpherant of Alonso and the two 16-year old Latin studs, Juan Dixon and Yorman Rodriguez, give Reds fans encouragement for... 2012.  Besides those three, the Reds also stole RHP Zach Stewart in the third round of the June draft.  Stewart, a closer at Texas Tech last Spring, has dominated Class A so far.  His combined stats at Dayton and Sarasota are:  33 IP, 36 K, 14 BB, 26 HA, 0 HR, and a 1.09 E.R.A.  Another quick starter is sixth rounder, Alex Buchholz, a second baseman from Delaware.  In Rookie Ball at Billings this season, he hit .400/ .477/ .615 in 130 ABs.  This haul dwarfs the previous two years' worth of prospects that Reds' Farm Director Chris Buckley put together.
  
  
• Jay Bruce has nine errors this season so far with the Reds.  This looks poor by almost any standard, but there are some positives.  Bruce has been credited for some errors on ground balls that he bobbled that let a runner score on a single from second base.  Are these really errors?  Secondly, Bruce has been credited with a few tough errors on dropped fly balls that Ken Griffey Jr. would never have come close to.  Reds pitchers have noticed the difference between Griffey and Bruce too.  Bronson Arroyo recently remarked about how much the Reds outfield defense has improved recently.
  
  
• Another part of that improved outfield defense is LF Chris Dickerson.  Dickerson is probably hitting well above his head at .329/ .427/ 695 in 82 AB (his minor league numbers do not come close to this), but his disciplined approach at the plate, his speed, and his defense do translate into a solid fourth outfielder at the Major League level.  He is not the impact player that the Reds so desperately need, but he is a solid contributor and every good baseball team need players like him.

THE BAD

• With the Reds long out of contention, logic says that the Reds should be experimenting with what they have to prepare for next year.  They have done that somewhat by giving Ryan Hannigan and Dickerson playing time.  But why aren't they putting Edwin Encarnacion in left field and Jeff Keppinger at third base to see if that may work?  Darryl Thompson should be pitching at this level now that he is healthy again.  Drew Stubbs should be thrown into centerfield to see if he can make contact with major league pitches (playing Corey Patterson serves absolutely no purpose besides bring Dusty Baker more abuse).  Josh Roenicke should be in the Reds bullpen to see if he can replace David Weathers.  This is extended Spring Training folks- let's take advantage!
  
  
• Tom Verducci of Sports Illustrated has come up a system to predict down years for young pitchers.  It is simple really.  He calls it the Year After Effect:  He finds major league pitchers 25- and- under who have pitched 30 or more innings than the previous year.  He eliminates the "artificially depressed" pitchers, such as those that had an injury and uses their college or professional high instead.  With that, he comes up with a group that he predicts will either get injured the next year or will have a big drop off the next year.  In February of 2008, he ran his numbers and came out with this group:  Ian Kennedy (NYY), Fausto Carmona (CLE), Ubaldo Jimenez (COL), Tom Gozelanny (PIT), Dustin McGowan (TOR), Chad Gaudin (OAK, now CHI), and Yovani Gallardo (MIL).  All but Jimenez have been seriously hurt at some time this season, but he was a total bomb the first half of the season.  Gaudin has not been seriously hurt, but his workload has been decreased with a switch to the bullpen at the start of the year.  It is amazing how accurate this system is at predicting upcoming struggles and injuries.  Who is a candidate for Verducci's Year After Effect in 2009?  You guessed it- Edinson Volquez.  The 25- year old pitched 144.67 innings last year and has already thrown 170 innings this year.  Other Reds pitchers:  Johnny Cueto- 161.33 in 2007 and 155 in 2008; Homer Bailey- 138.66 in 2006 and 148 in 2008.  Verducci would tell the Reds to shut down Voquez RIGHT NOW!

THE UGLY

• The White Sox are currently hitting Ken Griffey Jr. seventh and subbing in for him on defense late in the games.  He says that he is fine with all of this and loves his new team.  This reflects very poorly on Dusty Baker and further soils his reputation on dealing with and over- inflating the value of fading superstars.
  
  
• Corey Patterson rarely gets on base, but even when does, he is making even more outs on the bases.  He currently is tied for the lead in the Major Leagues in getting picked off of first base with nine.  Amazing.
  
  
• The Reds have been part of some of the best bet- the - house matchups so far this year in the Major Leagues.  The first came when Homer Bailey was struggling in late Spring.  He faced off against new Reds killer, Cole Hamels, and the Reds got pummeled.  That was possibly the lock- of- the- year in MLB.  Coming in a close second was the recent Josh Fogg start when he faced off against career Reds killer, Roy Oswalt.  The Reds had no shot that day, although Fogg did shut out the Astros for three innings before falling apart.

LATEST REDS' PODCAST:
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MLB reds, yonder alonso, juan dixon, yorman rodriguez, zach stewart, jay bruce, bronson arroyo, chris dickerson, ryan hannigan, edwin encarnacion, jeff keppinger, darryl thompson, drew stubbs, corey patterson, josh roenicke, edinson volquez, johnny cueto, homer bailey, ken griffey jr, dusty baker, josh fogg

This article took a vacation over the last two weeks because, quite honestly, it is not easy being a Reds fan.  I try not to be completely negative when it comes to the Reds, but they do not help me out much.  But then, Ken Griffey Jr. was traded and I can write an article again...

THE GOOD

• It is a miracle that someone took Griffey off of the Reds' hands and actually agreed to pay part of his salary.  The Chicago White Sox made one of the dumbest moves of the season (I call it "substraction by addition") when they traded living, breathing ballplayers for Griffey.  In his first game, the Chicago fans gave him a polite standing ovation.  Things changed quickly: the radio talk shows, the newspapers and the fans have hammered Griffey for his lack of hustle, his poor defense, his sulking, and his slow bat.  And he only has only played ten games.  If he continues his current pace with the White Sox (7-32, no extra base hits), who is going to sign him this off-season?
  
  
• The Reds have come to realize that they need to get a lot faster.  For years, Griffey and Adam Dunn have clogged up the bases, rarely taking an extra base on any single.  They could not run down any balls in the gap on defense.  They set the tone for the rest of the team by being as non- agressive as possible.  They were there to hit home runs, defy shifts, and loaf to first.  That attitude is gone and that cannot be underestimated.  The promotion to the Majors of Chris Dickerson, one of the most athletic players in their whole system, is a sign that management does not want the old attitude to linger.
  
  
• Keeping David Weathers and Jeremy Affeldt instead of trading them was not a bad idea IF the Reds can sign them to extentions.  If they both walk, then this line item falls a few inches downward in this article.

The Bad

• The Reds got zero for Dunn from the Diamondbacks.  We know they got minor league pitcher Dallas Buck.  It has also been reported that they got pitcher Micah Owings and minor league catcher Wilkin Castillo.  The best of three is probably Buck.  He was considered a first round pick for the 2006 draft until he hurt his arm pitching Oregon State to the College World Series title.  He dropped to the third round and immediately opted for arm rehab instead of surgery when doctors found a partial ligament tear in his elbow after the draft.  He has continued to try to pitch through the injury and has had few positive results.  That is the best prospect of the three.  Major league hitters' bats have told us that Owings is a fifth starter at best.  His numbers this year in Arizona:  104.66 IP, 104 HA, 41 BB, 87 Ks, 14 HR, and a 5.93 E.R.A.  And he may be hurt.  Castillo is considered the best catching prospect that Arizona has.  That is like saying that Curly was the smartest of the Three Stooges.  Castillo has no plus tools- he is very average at everything.  His Triple A line is worrisome: .254/ .305/ .358 in 358 at bats with 54 Ks and 24 BBs.  He is nowhere near a big league hitter because 1.  his strikeouts are double his walks- a consistent sign of failure for minor leaguers when they promoted to the highest level.  2.  A .305 on base percentage indicates a poor approach at the plate and no game plan at the plate.  3.  A .358 slugging percentage at any level is pathedic.  Even Griffey is higher than that this year.
  
  
• Jeff Keppinger is playing hurt and his numbers show it.  Since his return from the DL in mid June, his batting average has dropped from .324 to .262 and he rarely hits any extra base hits.  He broke his kneecap and this is probably preventing him from driving the ball.  My bet is that we hear about this during the off- season.
  
  
• Josh Fogg was terrible when the Reds signed him and he may be worse now.  It is amazing that he is still on the roster.  He will not be on anyone's roster a year from now.

The Ugly

• Dusty Baker's comments that the 2008 Reds are, "Wayne Krivsky's team, not Walt Jocketty's and not mine" are shameful.  Krivsky does deserve a lot of the blame for the Reds' poor performance, but so too does Baker.  Did Krivsky bat Corey Patterson 245 times, many times in the leadoff spot?  Did Krivsky hit Griffey third despite the statistics, the loafing, and the stubbornness to defy any shift?  Did Krivsky ruin Aaron Harang's arm in San Diego?  Did Krivsky try to start Matt Belisle, Scott Hatteberg and Fogg?  Or how about the appalling lack of energy that the Reds played with until the trade of Dunn this week?  Baker's inability to see his faults just makes matters worse and leaves very little hope for him in the future.  He needs to go ASAP.
  
  
• The Reds have gone down to the deadline with their 2008 first round pick, first baseman Yonder Alonso.  Viewed as a reach with the overall seventh pick, Alonso is wanting much more that last year's number seven pick (Matt LaPorta got just over $2 million from the Brewers).  Everyone knew Alonso's contract demands BEFORE the draft ($7 million signing bonus and a major league contract) so why did the Reds draft him?  Consensus had better players than Alonso on the board, players who had reasonable contract demands.  If the Reds do not sign him, this will be the third straight terrible first round draft pick for Reds Scouting Director Chris Buckley.  The Reds farm system has gone from stocked to below average under his watch.  Yes, some of it is natural with the graduation to the Majors of Jay Bruce, Johnny Cueto, and Joey Votto, but he has not replaced any of that talent.

MLB reds, ken griffey, adam dunn, chris dickerson, david weathers, jeremy affeldt, dallas buck, micah owings, wilkin castillo, jeff keppinger, josh fogg, dusty baker, corey patterson, aaron harang, matt belisle, scott hatteber, yonder alonso, jay bruce, johnny cueto, joey votto, chris buckley

The Reds continued to retool their roster on Monday by pulling off a surprising trade, sending outfielder Adam Dunn to the Arizona Diamondbacks in exchange for three prospects.

Dunn, who is currently tied for the major-league lead in homeruns with 32, will provide some much-needed pop for the Diamondbacks. Reports say that he could be moved to right field. That is a a scary proposition, but it is a risk that Arizona apparently is willing take.

In exchange for Dunn, Cincinnati will receive minor league pitcher Dallas Buck and two other players to be named later, according to ESPN.com.

Buck, 24, this season went 1-4 with a 3.94 ERA in 9 games and 8 starts with Class A South Bend. Last Monday he was promoted to High Class A Visalia and made one appearance, pitching 5.0 shutout innings Thursday vs San Jose. He will be assigned to Class A Sarasota.

Dunn was sent to be a free agent at season's end and apparently the two sides didn't feel they were in each other's future. The Reds technically could still attempt to bring him back in the off-season, but it seems less unlikely now.

The move comes just 10 games after the team dealt Ken Griffey Jr. to the White Sox.  The Reds have gone 1-9 since then and now without Dunn in the line-up the team is looking pretty weak.  Cincinnati is currently 19 1/2 games behind the Cubs in the NL Central at sit 15 games under .500 at 52-67. It's not too far fetched to think that the Reds could be headed for a 100-loss season. As it stands, they are staring at their eight straight losing season.

Had the Reds not traded Dunn, they could have been rewarded two high draft picks next year if they at least offered him arbritration. 

Dunn is frustrating. He is a defensive liability and is naturally lackadaisical. Still, he is a mortal lock for 40 HRs for every season. No player in MLB has more homeruns or walks over the past five years. 

The Reds are expected to make a 25-man roster move prior to Tuesday's game. The real question is who the heck is in the outfield for the rest of this season?

Jay Bruce, Corey Patterson, and Jolbert Cabrera are not going to cut it. 

MLB reds, diamondbacks, adam dunn, dallas buck, jay bruce, corey patterson, jolbert cabrera

We are 100 games into the season and only one Cincnnati Red has more than 20 doubles, Edwin Encarnacion.  The lumbering team has just 14 three-baggers on the season as well. This just proves how one dimensional theis tam is on offense.  They have built a reputation on beating teams with the long ball and not showing the ability to win games with small ball.

Looking at some of the slugging percentages of these team and there are disappointments abound.  Jeff Keppinger leads the way with just 16 of his 70 hits going for extra bases and a .388 SLG %.  This was the guy who was supposed to be the squads premier gap hitter. 

Ken Griffey Jr. continues to hit in a run-producing spot in the line up despite his abysmal .412 SLG %.  At this point in his career he is no better than a number seven hitter.

Brandon Phillips, Jay Bruce and Joey Votto all should have a SLG % between .480-.490, none of them are near that mark.

The catchers have been horrible as well combining for 93 hits and just 32 for extra bases.

Throw in all the junk off the bench (Corey Patterson, Andy Phillips, Norris Hopper, Paul Janish and Scott Hatteberg) that hasn't produced any offense at all this season and you have all the ingredients for consistently low scoring outputs by the Reds. 

The team struggles to move runners along and when Griffey Jr. and Adam Dunn are repeatedly hitting the ball off the wall and only getting singles out of it.... that is a huge problem!  The team needs an infusion of speed and and a removal out of the parts that no longer fit.

MLB adam dunn, edwn encarnacion, corey patterson, andy phillips, norris hopper, paul janish, scott hatteberg, ken griffey jr., brandon phillips, jay bruce, joey votto, jeff keppinger

With the Cincinnati Reds on break due to the All- Star Game, now is a good time to hand out midterm grades.  With the Reds four games under .500 and much closer to last than to first, most of the position players, pitchers and coaches are not on dean's list.  Evaluations were based on decisions made, actions, attitudes and of course, results.  Its too bad some of these guys cannot go to detention or study tables to pay some penance or at least, get better...

POSITION PLAYERS
C  David Ross:  Ross, a right handed hitter, has been much tougher on right handed pitchers (.283/ .424/ .509) than left handed ones (.240/ .350/ .320) which means that he should NOT be platooning with Paul Bako.  The odds of Dusty Baker knowing these stats is almost zero, and thus, the platoon continues even though Ross has thoroughly outplayed Bako.  Grade:  C

C  Paul Bako:  He was hot early, even hitting over .300 as late as May 14th.  Since then, he has plummetted to .217/ .297/ .355.  In other words, he might be in a worse slump than Corey Patterson and that says a ton.  He gets good marks for his handling of the young pitchers.  Grade:  D+

C  Javier Valentin:  He cannot hit for average (.229).  He cannot hit for power (.314 slugging with zero home runs).  He cannot run, throw or field.  What is he doing on this team?  Grade:  F

1B  Joey Votto:  Dusty Baker awarded the starting first baseman job to Scott Hatteberg out of Spring Training.  Hatteberg's slow start forced a change and Votto has responsed.  He is not another Sean Casey- that is a bad comparison.  Votto has more speed, range and power than Casey and nobody can be compared to the mayor's personality.  Grade:  B

2B  Brandon Phillips:  Phillips can go into serious slumps when he starts to try to inside- out everything to right field.  He ended the first half in such a slump.  Outside of those stretches, he continues to be a premier second baseman offensively and defensively.  (Will he be robbed of the sham known as the Gold Glove again?)  Grade:  B+

SS  Jeff Keppinger:  If he was not injured and did not start hitting into a lot of bad luck upon his return from the DL, he would probably be the team's MVP.  If Alex Gonzalez was with the team, Keppinger would have put him on the bench.  Grade:  B

SS  Jerry Hairston Jr.:  Dusty Baker and ex- GM Wayne Krivsky deserve some credit for finding Hairston, but not a lot because no other team wanted Hairston.  They were able to get him because he has been constantly injured in recent years.  He continues to show that health is his weakness as he has missed time.  When he is able to play and he is not put on the bench, he is one of the Reds' best players.  Grade:  B+ - not an A only because he missed a lot of the first month and because he landed on the DL.

3B  Edwin Encarnacion:  My esteemed colleague, Greg Shoemaker, noted that Encarnacion has batted .329 since June 9th with 15 of his 27 hits going for extra bases.  He seems to start slow every year and heat up in August.  He may be heating up a little early this year and he may have some pretty good numbers by the end of the season.  Grade:  B-

3B/1B  Andy Phillips:  Cut by the Reds and then later claimed by the Reds.  He has not played much.  Odds are that he will be cut again when Ryan Freel and/ or Jolbery Cabrera are removed from the DL  Grade:  INCOMPLETE

OF  Adam Dunn:  A Reds beat writer recently wrote that Dunn is having a bad season.  If you just look at his batting average, .228, this is an easy conclusion for the untrained.  But batting average can be deceiving and its too bad because it is the first stat many look at.  Better stats (i.e. stats proven as better indicators of productivity) include on base percentage and slugging.   Dunn's OBP is .380, way above the average.  Dunn's slugging percentage is .538, among the league leaders.  He will probably hit 45 home runs, draw 100 walks, score 100 runs, knock in 100 runs and still anger Reds fans.  Finally, all advanced defensive analysis sets have him improving to an ABOVE AVERAGE left fielder.  Grade:  B - He would have an A if he could hit better with runners in scoring position.

OF  Ken Griffey Jr.:  In a recent series with the Washington Nationals, Jeff Keppinger was batting (in the midst of his slump) late in the game with the scored tied.  The Reds had runners on second and third with one out.  The Nationals had a right handed reliever so they had a good matchup against Keppinger, himself a right hander.  The reliever threw four straight balls nowhere near the strike zone to load the bases to get to Ken Griffey Jr, a left hander.  The right handed reliever stayed in the game and struck out Griffey on five pitches.  That tells you how much Griffey's skills have deteriorated and that everyone in baseball knows it except Dusty Baker.  Grade:  D

OF  Jay Bruce:  Despite some struggles in June, Bruce has been one of the best players on the team because he can do so many different things for a baseball team.  He will eventually live up to the hype of being the #1 overall prospect in baseball.  The more he plays, the quicker that time will come.  Grade:  B

OF  Corey Patterson:  Reds fans have tried to understand how Patterson continues to see playing time.  There have been rumors that Patterson is dating Baker's daughter, that he has pictures of Baker and Madonna,  and that he is Baker's illegitimate son.  Sadly, the real reason he is playing is because Dusty Baker is the worst manager in the Majors.  Patterson is the second worst free-agent signing in Reds history behind only Eric Milton.  Grade:  F

ROTATION
SP  Edison Volquez:  If the All- Star keeps up his current pace, he could win the Cy Young Award this season.  Odds are that he will hit a wall somewhere around the 175 inning mark and fade fast.  Fantasy players should be aware of this.  Grade:  A

SP  Johnny Cueto:  He dazzled us, he struggled and got lit up, and then he made adjustments and has impressed us again with his talents.  The same will be said of Bruce once he figures out the adjustments.  Cueto will be a great one.  Grade:  B

SP  Aaron Harang:  (DL)  He was Bakerized and thus, his arm is hurt and his team has suffered.  If he is even close to previous years' numbers, the Reds are above .500 and close to third place.  Grade:  D

SP  Bronson Arroyo:  He has pitched better of late and I believe that will continue.  The reasoning?  His BABIP (batting average of balls put into play against him) is .362 which is extremely high.  This could mean a few things: 1.  he has been unlucky  2.  he has a poorous defense behind him and 3.  he has been hit hard.  Such a high average as .362 means that luck probably is a part of it.  Grade D+

SP  Josh Fogg:  His last two outings have been decent, but he has made a living out of brief glimpses of respectibility.  His stuff is so marginal that any small mistake is clobbered by just about any hitter.  He cannot be counted on at all and his stats (7.94 ERA, 1.49 WHIP, 24 Ks in 39.66 IP) back that up.  Grade:  F

SP  Homer Bailey:  He is the opposite of Fogg.  His last outing was impressive and that contrasted sharply with the rest of his year.  But his stuff is not marginal.  He was throwing his fastball in the mid 90s and that means everything to Bailey.  If he continues to throw at that speed, he can be a #3 starter.  Grade:  D

 
BULLPEN
Middle Relievers - Jeremy Affeldt, Bill Bray, Gary Majewski and Mike Lincoln:  All three have been effective.  Only Lincoln is a surprise as the other three are very talented.  None have eye- popping numbers.  Grade:  B

Setup Relievers - Jared Burton and David Weathers:  These two have been overworked by Baker.  Burton has already experienced some soreness and was shelved for a week.  Weathers will be saved when he is traded this month.  Both have been outstanding on the mound.  Grade:  A

Closer - Francisco Cordero:  Putting his salary aside (not part of the grading criteria), his contributions have been very solid.  He is 19 for 23 in save situations.  This is not among the elite closers, but is in the second tier.  He has also been a positive influence on the young Latin players namely Cueto and Volquez.  Grade B+

COACHING
Pitching Coach - Dick Pole:  He takes a lot of abuse from Reds fans and I am not sure that some of it does not stem from his name.  He deserves more credit.  The bullpen has improved since last year and if Todd Coffey's stats are subtracted from it, the bullpen could be described as impressive.  The preference to listen to instructor Mario Soto by the young Latin pitchers does not bode well for Pole.  Neither do the down years by Arroyo and Harang.  Grade: C

Hitting Coach - Brook Jacoby:  A real mixed bag here... It is hard to blame Jacoby for Griffey's dramatic loss of talent or the struggles of the rookies.  It is easy to blame him for Griffey's and Dunn's refusals to beat shifts through bunts and opposite field hitting.  It is easy to blame him for the team's awful bunting.  But what about the production of Hairston, Keppinger and Phillips?  Grade:  C

Manager - Dusty Baker:  Let us list some actions/ decisions from our first year manager:  continuously playing Corey Patterson, ignoring historical matchups of Reds hitters versus opposing pitchers and then lying about it, playing Patterson versus lefties at all (.143/ .189/ .143), pitching Harang in long relief on short rest and then starting him on short rest when he knew that he was already hurting (see last week's Reds Musings), trying to initially exclude the youngsters by giving starting jobs to Hatteberg, Patterson and Belisle, batting Griffey in the third hole, alternatively benching Hairston, Bruce, Keppinger and Encarnacion when Griffey should be on the bench, pinch hitting Griffey against lefties like he did against CC Sabathia when Valentin was available (Griffey is hitting .204/ .320/ .330 versus lefties), bunting way too much early in games, wrongfully platooning the catchers, ignoring stats altogether, and did I mention playing Corey Patterson?  Grade: F -  He has cost the Reds about six to seven games with all of the above.  At this rate, he will pass up Bob Boone and Ray Knight as the worst Reds manager in the last fifty years.

MLB reds, david ross, javier valentin, paul bako, joey votto, brandon phillips, edwin encarnacion, jeff keppinger, jerry hairston jr, andy phillips, adam dunn, ken griffey jr, jay bruce, corey patterson, edinson volquez, johnny cueto, aaron harang, bronson arroyo, josh fogg, homer bailey, jeremy affeldt, bill bray, gary majewski, mike lincoln, jared burton, david weathers, francisco cordero, dusty baker, brook jacoby, dick pole

Here's a look at the good and bad on Cincinnati at the All-Star break.

The team is 7-1 when Jerry Hairston leads off and Jeff Keppinger bats second.  They are 6-0 since they both came off the DL.

Jay Bruce had six extra-base hits in his first seven games as a Red.  He has just eight in the 37 games since.

Ken Griffey Jr. is just 24-111 (.216 BA) since June 3rd.  He has driven in just 11 teammates during the slump.

Joey Votto had 10 extra-base hits from April 15 thru April 30th.  He has just nine in the last 38 games.

After hitting .172 in May, Edwin Encarnacion has turned it around.  The third baseman is hitting .329 since June 9th with 15 of his 27 hits going for extra bases.

Despite a .228 BA, Adam Dunn is on track for career highs in HR's, RBI's, SF's and Walks.

Brandon Phillips has seen his Slugging % drop 58 points since June 1st.

David Ross is 9 for last 25 with four doubles and two homers.  He had three doubles and one home run in his first 78 at-bats to begin the season.

Javier Valentin had 20 HR's and 70 RBI's in his first two seasons as a Red.  He has just 10 HR's and 68 RBI's in 76 more AB's in the two and a half seasons since Corey Patterson has just nine hits in 71 at-bats with 0 walks since May 21st.

The ace of this staff, Aaron Harang is just seven games over .500 (60-53) in 142 starts as a Red.  Is that really an ace?

Don't worry about Johnny Cueto throwing to many innings. His natural progression is as follows:  98 IP in '05, 138 in '06, 161 in '07 and 111 IP to date in '08. He is on pace for 205 IP's  which falls right in line with his minor league trends.

Edinson Volquez is following the same path.  His natural progression is as follows:  131 IP in '04, 140 in '05, 154 in '06, 178 in '07  and 111 IP to date in '08.  He is on pace for 205 IP's also.

Bronson Arroyo (7-7, 5.97) has had only one losing season since 2002.

Four starters (Harang, Arroyo, Cueto and Volquez) have combined to make 80% of the teams starts.

Four starters (Thompson, Fogg, Bailey and Belisle) have combined to make 20% of the teams starts.  They have gone 2-11 with a 7.69 ERA in 87.7 in 19 starts.

Mike Lincoln has given up just 3 ER's in his last 17 appearances, lowering his ERA 2.76 points to 3.89.  He has fanned 25 while walking just eight in 23 IP's during that stretch.

Jared Burton has given up just 3 ER's in his last 27 appearances (since May 14th), lowering his ERA 2.62 points to 2.23.  He has fanned 27 in 30.2 IP's during that stretch.

Whiff's are good -  Pitching staff needs just 330 more strikeouts to equal 2007 total.  They are averaging 8.5 K's per game that is two more a contest from a year ago.

MLB jerry hairston, jeff keppinger, jay bruce, ken griffey jr., reds, joey votto, edwin encarnacion, adam dunn, brandon phillips, david ross, javier valentin, corey patterson, aaron harang, johnny cueto, edinson volquez, bronson arroyo, thompson, fogg, bailey, belisle, mike lincoln, jared burton