The 139th Run For the Roses is set for Saturday as 20 horses will take the field at Churchill Downs in Louisville for this year’s Kentucky Derby.

The favorite is Orb (7/2), winner of the Fountain of Youth and the Florida Derby (my two favorite prep races).  Trainer Shug McGaughey III has hid horse turning heads with blazing workouts at the track this week.  He is a must-play horse at or near the top of any exotics. With his success at Gulfstream, a dirt track, there are no concerns of how he will handle this surface.

If you like Orb, and I do, you have to also highly consider Itsmyluckday (15/1), the horse Orb held off last time out.  The Elvis Trujillo-ridden horse was coming off a big layoff heading into his last race and should be poised for a big day.

Trainer Todd Pletcher has five of his horses in the field. Despite his success though, the highly regarded trainer is 1-for-31 on the first Saturday in May.  There are plenty of things to like about his horses this time around.

The best of his bunch is Verrazano (4/1), winner of the Tampa Bay Derby and the Wood Memorial. Jockey John Velazquez suffered an injury shortly after the Wood, but is set to return to the saddle this weekend for the big festivities at Churchill. You can’t throw this horse out, but based on his price he doesn’t overwhelm me.

The horse that nearly caught Verrazano in the Wood Memorial, Normandy Invasion (12/1), should benefit from the extra real estate this time and is one that I will include in exotics for sure.

The Pletcher horses that appeal to me the most are Revolutionary (10/1) and Palace Malice (20/1).  Revolutionary (Arkansas Derby winner) has yet to see this quality of competition, but he’s been working out great and has Calvin Borel aboard and in his favorite spot as he’s on the rail with the No. 3 post position.  Palace Malice has failed to live up to expectations, but with the price and the addition of blinkers for the first time I am hoping his speed will return.

Speaking of speed, big changes this year to the Derby regulations has changed that aspect of the race some.  With so many horses wanting into the 20-horse field they used to go off earnings to determine the tiebreakers. That allowed many sprinters to win short races with big purses and get in. This year they went to a point-based system that favors major prep races.  In the end, there aren’t many sprinters in the race. That spells good things for stalkers who like to lay off the pace just a bit as they’ll be fresh and able to hold off the closers down the stretch. That’s how I am approaching it this year.

Goldencents (5/1) is the horse I expect to benefit from these changes the most. Doug O’Neill is one the best in biz and strategizing the big race and something tells me that Rick Pitino (5% owner) is going for his own Triple Crown – Hall of Fame, National Championship, Derby Winner. Expect this horse to slide right behind the leaders and save his best for last.

As long as I am making sentimental picks I have to include Mylute, ridden by Rosie Napravnik. She’s trying to become the first female jockey to win the Derby and is currently the leading (winning %) in the nation this year.  The colt isn’t shabby either. He gave Revolutionary all he could handle at Oaklawn and will be in the mix here.

MY BETS
I have hit the Trifecta in three of the last seven years and have the winner four times in that span…

$1 TRIFECTA wheel ($72 bet)
#16 Orb
 #8 Goldencents
 #3 Revolutionary

with
#16 Orb
 #8 Goldencents
 #3 Revolutionary
#14 Verrazano
 #5 Normandy Invasion

with
#16 Orb
 #8 Goldencents
 #3 Revolutionary
#14 Verrazano
 #5 Normandy Invasion
#12 Itsmyluckday
#10 Palace Malice
 #6 Mylute


$2 EXACTA wheel ($30 bet)
#16 Orb, #8 Goldencents, #3 Revolutionary with
#16 Orb, #8 Goldencents, #3 Revolutionary, #14 Verrazano, #5 Normandy Invasion, #12 Itsmyluckyday


$10 WPS ($30 bet)
#12 Itsmyluckday - My longshot of the day

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The first Saturday in May as always mean it’s time for me to start some serious handicapping. This year’s Run for the Roses is as tough as ever to gage.

For starters Uncle Mo, the two-year old champion, was scratched on Friday morning. Throw in the fact that most analysts already considered this a down year for three year olds and things get really interesting.

The weather won’t be a complete washout like last year, but rain and storms are in the forecast. With Churchill Downs still being a dirt track, it could be a factor.

Despite the wide open race, I still find myself leaning towards the favorites a bit, at least on top.

Nehro is the horse I am keying on for my across-the-board and exacta wagers. He just missed in both the Louisiana and Arkansas Derby and the added distance here will work to the closer’s benefit. Plus, being on the far outside will prove to work to his advantage.

Dialed In, the morning line favorite, is lightly raced but I always favor a Florida Derby winner and horses that already have a win at Churchill Downs.

The third horse I am keying on is Soldat. Of the speed in the race he’s my best bet to get in the money and he has multiple wins at 1 1/8 miles, suggesting the distance won’t be as much of a factor.

Keep in mind the $1 TRI has averaged a payout of $5704 over the past five Kentucky Derby races. Here is my $1 Trifecta wheel (total $84 bet):

FIRST PLACE
19 Nehro
8 Dialed In
17 Soldat

SECOND PLACE
19 Nehro
8 Dialed In
17 Soldat
1 Archarcharch
10 Twinspired

THIRD PLACE
19 Nehro
8 Dialed In
17 Soldat
1 Archarch
10 Twinspired
11 Master of Hounds
16 Animal Kingdom
15 Midnight Interlude
3 Twice the Appeal

*If $84 is too rich for your blood, you can bet the same Trifecta for 50 cents; or if you want to go bigger you can double up and bet the $2 Trifecta. I have the horses listed in the order in which I like them.

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With 20 horses in the field and torrential downpours expected for the 136th Kentucky Derby on Saturday at Churchill Downs in Louisville, picking a winner will be as tough as ever.

Throw in the fact that the best three-year old, Eskendereya, was scratched with an injury and the two best remaining horses, Lookin At Lucky and Sidney’s Candy, both drew the two worst post positions and this Run For The Roses is up for grabs.

I am opting to throw out the two favorites and for the most part go for the payday.  For less than $100 you can take a shot at Trifecta with a ton of options. Over the past five years a $1 Derby trifecta has paid out an average of $6,661.94.

MY TRIFECTA
$1 Trifecta Wheel (total cost $96)

WIN
2 Ice Box
4 Super Saver
11 Devil May Care

PLACE
2 Ice Box
3 Noble's Promise
4 Super Saver
11 Devil May Care
13 Jackson Bend

SHOW
1 Lookin At Lucky
2 Ice Box
3 Noble's Promise
4 Super Saver
5 Conveyance
7 American Lion
11 Devil May Care
13 Jackson Bend
16 Awesome Act
17 Dublin

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