FANTASY 101
The Weather Watch Begins: With the calendar officially turning December now is the time fantasy owners need to stay on top of potential weather situations. Snow, wind, and wintery conditions can really throw off fantasy production. Kickers and quarterbacks are affected the most. However, owners need to be cautious not to over analyze weather. It should only be one consideration when making lineup decisions not the only consideration.

SETTING YOUR LINEUP
START 'EM
QB Matt Moore (vs. OAK) – Over his last three starts the Dolphins' signal caller has thrown for seven touchdowns and just one interception while averaging 225 yards per game. This week he faces a Raiders’ D that is one of only five units in the league to allow 20 or more passing touchdowns. Consider him a low end QB 1 in this matchup.

WR Brandon Lloyd (at SF) – Lloyd is developing great chemistry with quarterback Sam Bradford and has now pulled in a TD pass in three straight games while averaging five receptions for 63 yards during that span. The matchup may scare some owners away this week, but Lloyd is likely to still keep his production level going this week.

SIT 'EM
RB Peyton Hillis (vs. BAL) – Many disgruntled fantasy owners were happy to see Hillis finally healthy and starting for the Browns last week. However, his stat line didn't provide much to get excited about as he finished just 65 yards on 19 carries. With the Ravens' D only giving up 3.4 yards per carry to opposing RB's I wouldn’t expect much more from Hillis here.

WR Anquan Boldin (at CLE) – After catching just seven balls total over the past three weeks it is hard for me to get excited about Boldin’s chances this week against a Browns’ secondary that allows just 7.2 fantasy points per week to wideouts. Owners can likely find options with more upside in Week 13.

FANTASY INFIRMARY
RB Adrian Peterson (ankle) – He has yet to return to practice, but is working on the side and remains optimistic that he can play vs. DEN. Owners shouldn't hold their breath though. Toby Gerhardt starts again if Peterson sits.

RB Ahmad Bradshaw (foot) – Bradshaw has missed four straight games, but he's also holding out hope he can return in Week 13. He'll have to get on the practice field though before he sees game action against the Packers.

RB Kevin Smith (ankle) – Smith returned to the practice field on Thursday and took reps with the first team. His chances of playing Sunday night are looking up, but owners will want to keep their eyes on the situation as kickoff approaches.

WR Miles Austin (hamstring) – It's looking more like Austin will miss his fourth straight game as he continues to battle a hamstring injury. Even if he did return, he likely be limited with Laurent Robinson playing so well. Owners should consider other options.

Other injuries of note: Josh Freeman (shoulder), Willis McGahee (illness), Mario Manningham (knee)

BIGGEST BUSTS OF 2011
We look at the top bust at each position for this season that didn't involve an injury…

QB – Joe Flacco (BAL) – He has only thrown for multiple TD's in three of his 11 starts and has had five games in which he's thrown under 225 yards. With just 13 touchdowns and eight picks this season, Flacco has fallen out my top 15 QB's.

RB – Rashard Mendenhall (PIT) - While he's scored in five of his 10 games, Mendenhall has had just one 100-yard day. Even in PPR formats the Steelers' back, who many owners invested a first-round pick on, has had five weeks where he failed to hit double digits in fantasy points.

WR – Mike Williams (TB) – Despite coming on of late, a larger sample size shows that Williams has not deliver on his fantasy expectations. He has scored in two straight, but before that his last trip to the end zone was in Week 1. He still has not turned in a 100-yard receiving day and before last week reached the 75-yard mark just once all season.

TE – Jermichael Finley (GB) - Ever since his three-touchdown game against the Bears back in Week 3, Finley's production has been suspect. He has finished with four or more catches just twice over his last eight games and only has two touchdowns over that stretch. Playing in the Packers' offense with his talent should have yielded more for owners.

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I've posted my QB, RB and WR busts. Here are a couple wide receivers who might disappoint fantasy owners:

Kevin Boss (NYG) – Boss is a borderline #1 tight end in most league formats. But, he is coming off an injury that he continues to nurse. Plus, he was far too inconsistent to cause anything but frustration for most owners. This is not what you want from a TE1. Additionally, the Giants have discovered many weapons on the offensive side of the ball, like Steve Smith, Mario Manningham and Hakeem Nicks. There's just not enough to go around to make Boss an elite tight end and therefore, count on a down year from the Boss Man.

Greg Olsen (CHI) – Olsen is one of the few offensive weapons the Bears have, but unfortunately, a new offensive play caller is in the Windy City. Mike Martz, the so-called offensive genius, is the new offensive coordinator and he rarely involves tight ends in his offense. Despite a career year for Olsen, don't count on the same production this year from the Bears' tight end.

Jeremy Shockey (NO) – People, it's not the early 2000s any more and please stop considering Shockey an elite tight end. Heck, Shockey is not even worthy of a starting spot in your fantasy lineup. If your league requires a tight end spot in your lineup, then Shockey is, at best, a bye week filler. Leave him for the guy in your league who hasn't checked his calendar yet and take a chance on one of the sleepers listed here instead of Shockey.

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Winning NFL picks, odds and power rankings all from our friends at Doc's Sports Service.

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I already posted some of my QB and RB candidates to be busts this year. Here are a couple wide receivers who might disappoint fantasy owners:

Steve Smith (CAR) – While the New York Giants version flourished and has a great outlook for 2010, the Carolina version has been in a freefall and has several things working against him. He's coming off a broken arm which he injured against little kids in his youth camp (this is an omen). Matt Moore is his quarterback, which might be an upgrade over the aging Jake Delhomme, but is still not enough of a positive for Smith, whose streak of 1,000 yard seasons ended last year. The Panthers are a run-first team which means Smith won't be a big factor and when he is, he's likely to get double coverage. The time has passed when Steve Smith is a WR1 for any fantasy team, and with all these factors, he might not even be a WR2. When you draft a Steve Smith this year, make sure it's the one from the New York Giants.

Vincent Jackson (SD) – You would think that a #1 receiver on a championship-caliber team would make a player a top tier selection. But, VJax (yeah, I'll stop that) is going to serve a three-game suspension to start the year. You could live with that and plan accordingly, but Jackson is also in the middle of an ugly contract dispute, having refused to sign his one-year tender. He's threatening to sit out the year, and while I doubt that will happen, Jackson simply cannot be counted as an elite WR. Now, he could fall in the bargain bin in your draft and would still be worthy of a WR2-level selection.

Wes Welker (NE) – Normally Welker can be counted on as a top 10 receiver. In PPR leagues, he's an absolute stud. However, he's coming off a Week 17 ACL tear which really hurt the Patriots in the playoffs. Welker has already started practicing in training camp and vows to play in Week 1. But, I'm not convinced. This is all Patriot games. I think, in the end, Welker will start the year on the PUP list. And, even if he doesn't, he won't have the speed and burst necessary to perform at a high level. For this reason, I'm passing on Welker. Unless he proves to be the bionic man, he can't be the receiver he was last year and therefore can't be counted on as a stud fantasy WR.

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When Tom Brady went down last season, the Patriots were left for dead. However, backup Matt Cassel emerged by throwing 21 touchdowns and led New England to a 11-5 record.

Cassel was particularly impressive down the stretch, throwing for 14 of his scores and posting three 300-yard performances (two over 400 yards) over the team's final seven games.

The Patriots thought enough of Cassel to place the franchise tag on him. However, when it became clear that Brady was going to be ready for the start of the 2009 campaign the team dealt him to Kansas City along with veteran linebacker Mike Vrabel for the Chiefs' second-round draft pick.

He recently inked a six-year, $63 million deal that has $28 million in guaranteed money and will pay him $40.5 million over the next three seasons.

While I am not totally dismissing that Cassel has potential, I am going to recommend staying clear of him if possible. Here are some reasons why:

NEW COACH - Todd Haley, the Chiefs' new head coach, is the former Cardinals offensive coordinator and has worked in the Cowboys' organization too. He is expected to use a ton of shotgun formations like Cassel excelled in last season, but the overall system is different and will take time to adjust to. Kansas City retained Chan Gailey, who is more of a smashmouth football type of guy, so some sort of hybird system is possible. Either way I am thinking some adjustment time should be expected.

KC FAR FROM NEW ENGLAND - Aside from the coach, the entire persona of the Chiefs is different than that of the Patriots. In New England, everyone is just an interchangable part of a bigger puzzle. Meanwhile, in Kansas City coaches and personnel have continued to turnover over the past decade as the franchise hasn't won a playoff game in that span. Cassel will have to be the man here.

GONZO GONE - I still can't figure out what the Chiefs were thinking when they sent tight end Tony Gonazlez to Atlanta. He was by far the team's best weapon in the passing game and coming off a monster season. His departure takes some of the luster off of Cassel finding a home and locking down a starting job.

FEW WEAPONS - Outside of Dwayne Bowe, the Chiefs have few options for Cassel to throw to. Mark Bradley has never amounted to much and newcomer Bobby Engram is merely a role player at best. Larry Johnson (who I am not crazy about either) is a big question mark at running back too.

BRUTAL SCHEDULE - While they may get the Broncos twice, the rest of the Chiefs' slate is less than appealing. They have two match-ups with the Ravens and Steelers and play the entire NFC East.

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FINAL TAKE - Cassel may have a starting NFL job, but he should still be looked at more as a high-end fantasy backup until he proves that it was him and not the system that led to 2008's success. I would draft him accordingly in the mid-rounds of your draft. Chances are though, based off last year's effort more than one owner in your league will overpay to get him.

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Thomas Jones proved to be a steal last year, coming up with big numbers after a disappointing 2007 campaign. He finished with 1,312 rushing yards and a career-high 13 touchdowns.

That will likely cause some owners to make a stab for Jones as early as Round Two come draft day, but don't be that person!

Here are a variety of factors that tell me you are better off let someone else taking the veteran at that point:

AGE - He will be 31 years old this season and that is age where running backs typically begin to see a significant dip in their production.

QB SITUATION – Say what you want to about Brett Favre, but his presence in the pocket forced opponents to respect the pass. That helped open up running lanes for Jones to go through. With Kellen Clemens and rookie Mark Sanchez likely to battle for snaps, look for defenses to stack the box.

COMPETITION FOR CARRIES – Leon Washington was already a factor last year as a change-of-pace back and will get an increased look this season. Also, the team invested a draft pick in Shonn Greene, who appears to be the running back of the future. Many expect Greene to get a crack at some goalline carries, which would obviously hurt Jones’ chances of approaching last year’s touchdown total.

CONTRACT ISSUES – Jones is in the final year of his contract and had threatened to hold out. The Jets could still trade him and even if the don’t, if the season were to slip away the team would definitely less likely to keep atop the depth chart as it is unlikely they will re-sign him.

NEW REGIME – Rex Ryan takes over for Eric Mangini as the team’s head coach. Though they both are defensive-minded, run-first coaches, expect some changes to take place.

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TELLING STAT – When Brett Favre’s arm injury popped up down the stretch of the season and the team’s passing game went south, so too did Jones’ numbers. Over the team’s last four contests in ‘08, Jones mustered just 224 yards on 57 carries (3.9 ypc) and two scores. With the quarterback situation a big question for the Jets, it’s not too tough to imagine similar struggles to start this season for Jones.

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FINAL TAKE – After totaling ripping Jones in this post, it’s hard for me to recommend him. However, I’m not applying he doesn’t have value. If he slides into Round Four and you already have a solid RB1, QB, and WR1 locked up, Jones may not be a bad option for a RB2 in deeper formats.

Even in Round Four as a RB2, I can still find a handful of other players with more upside that I would prefer. It doesn’t matter too much though as I don’t see him lasting that long in most drafts.

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