FANTASY 101
-GO WITH YOUR GUT: Regardless of whether you listen to us here or check out 25 different websites, make the final call on your lineup your own. It is recommended that owners gather the most information possible to make an educated guess, but in the end it’s YOUR fantasy team. Don’t let anybody make the call for you as you are going to be the one that has to live with the consequences.


TURNING THE PAGE
(Here’s a quick at players that will warrant discussion as first-round picks heading into 2013)

--QUARTBERACKS: A. Rodgers (GB), T. Brady (NE), R. Griffin III (WAS), D. Brees (NO) – This year has been another reminder that there is a tremendous amount of depth at the quarterback position, particularly with younger players coming along quicker. Of this group, Rodgers is still probably the only likely I’d pull the trigger on in Round 1 and would be later. However, it may be a better option to wait a few rounds and target the likes of Cam Newton, Eli Manning, or Matt Ryan.

--RUNNING BACKS: A. Peterson (MIN), R. Rice (BAL), A. Foster (HOU), T. Richardson (CLE), D. Martin (TB), M. Lynch (SEA), J. Charles (KC), C. Spiller (BUF), C. Johnson (TEN) – Grabbing running backs early and often is still the recommended method to build your team. Peterson right now is the guy that tops my list, but all of these runners should go off the board within the first 12 picks.

--WIDE RECEIVERS: C. Johnson (DET), A. Green (CIN), B. Marshall (CHI) – Like quarterback, wide receiver is a position deep in talent. However, these three players are warrant consideration very early based off their talent and the absurd amount of targets they get in their offenses. I’d be surprised to see more than a couple of wideouts go in round one though.

--TE Rob Gronkowksi (NE) – While Aaron Hernandez and Jimmy Graham could come close to matching his production, Gronk is the cream of the crop in my eyes. Still, he’s more a second-to-third round pick on my board. Expect him to go much earlier than that. Consistent tight end production is hard to find and no player is more consistent when healthy than the Patriots’ tight end.

FANTASY INFIRMARY
--Dez Bryant (finger): It appears that the Cowboys wide receiver is going to delay surgery and attempt to play through his broken left index finger. It leaves owners in a precarious situation as few players have been hotter over the past five weeks than Bryant. The matchup with Pittsburgh raises additional questions. Bryant is a HUGE gamble. Owners with comparable options should play it safe, but unless you have a top 20 WR to plug in as his replacement, it may be worth the risk rolling with him.

--Robert Griffin III (knee):  RGIII is dealing with a sprained knee, but has practiced in a limited capacity the past two days. It appears as if he’s going to play Sunday vs. the Browns, but owners will need to check his status on game day. If active, owners will be hard-pressed to sit the Redskins’ rookie.

--Ahmad Bradshaw (knee): Bradshaw has yet to make it on to the practice field and is questionable for Week 15’s matchup at Atlanta. Some of the team’s beat writers have speculated that Bradshaw may not even make the trip. Rookie David Wilson, who exploded onto the scene a week ago, becomes a borderline RB1 option if Bradshaw is deemed inactive.

--Roddy White (knee): White will be a game-time decision for Week 15 after being held out of practice again on Thursday, according to head coach Mike Smith. The Falcons are optimistic that White will be able to go and if he is active owners shouldn’t hesitate rolling with him. However, this situation is one that will need to be watched leading up to kickoff.

--Cecil Shorts (concussion): The Jaguars’ wide receiver has been cleared to return to practice and game action following missing last week with a concussion. Barring a setback he’ll be active versus Miami and be a viable WR2 option in most formats.

Injuries to Watch: Jay Cutler (neck), Jordy Nelson (hamstring), Sidney Rice (foot), Danny Amendola (heel/foot), Brandon Pettigrew (ankle).


DESPERATION PLAYS
(Owners facing uphill battles in Week 15 may want to roll the dice on some of these high-upside waiver wire finds)

--Montell Owens: After rushing for 91 yards and a touchdown a week ago versus the Jets, Owens showed he could provide some boost to owners decimated at running back. This week’s matchup against the Dolphins isn’t as nearly as friendly, but Owens is going to get the bulk of the carries as the last man standing in the Jaguars’ backfield and could be a top 30 option at the position.

--Dennis Pitta: Despite being inconsistent throughout the season, Pitta has scored three times over his last five games and faces a Broncos’ defense that has given up fantasy points in bunches to tight ends all season long. While Denver has been better of late at defending the position, expect Pitta to be heavily involved in the Ravens’ game plan on Sunday in a game that promises to have plenty of balls going up in the air.

--Lions DEF: Recommending the Lions as your staring defense in a week with so much on the line seems a bit bold, but given the fact they are facing the Cardinals makes them the most attractive option at the position in Week 15. Look for them to come up with plenty of turnovers and sacks and keep the yardage and scoring totals low against the Ryan Lindley led Arizona offense.

Fantasy Football fantasy playbook, fantasy advice, week 15, fantasy 101, injury report

FANTASY 101
-TEAMS TURNING THE PAGE: It is important for fantasy owners to be proactive in terms of knowing when NFL teams fall out of things they could start looking at younger players. Fantasy owners that identify these situations in advance could gain a big advantage by picking up these players before they become waiver wire gems.  A perfect example could be RB Blial Powell (Jets) and RB Daniel Thomas (Dolphins) getting more looks or perhaps what we’ve already seen with Ryan Broyles supplanting a troublesome Titus Young in Detroit’s starting lineup.

LATE-SEASON HEROES
(Here are a handful of players that have surfaced of late that could help lead owners to fantasy championships)

--QB Colin Kaepernick (SF): The new Niners’ signal caller has scored 20+ fantasy points in back-to-back starts and looks to be fully entrenched as San Fran’s starter. His next three opponents (STL, MIA and NE) have allowed an average 21.1 fantasy points to quarterbacks over their last five games. With his ability to get gobs of rushing yards too, Kaepernick is capable of big things down the stretch.

--RB Bryce Brown (PHI): The lightly used Brown burst onto the scene in Monday’s loss to the Panthers by tallying 19 carries for 178 yards and two touchdowns filling in for the concussed LeSean McCoy. Brown added four catches for 11 yards, but also fumbled twice. The Panthers have been susceptible to the run throughout the year, so it will be interesting to see how Brown fares Sunday night at Dallas. However, with the Eagles out of the playoff picture they may opt to shut down McCoy, who is still in Phase I of his recovery process and not near a return.

--RB Knowshon Moreno (DEN): After Ronnie Hillman ate up FAAB budgets and waiver wire priorities a week ago, it was Moreno that was the surprise starter and workhorse for Denver with Willis McGahee put on IR. Moreno received his first carry since Week 2 last week and finished 20 carries, 4 catches for 111 total yards versus the Chiefs. With him excelling in his pass protection look for him to continue to see the bulk of snaps for Denver. That makes him a decent low-end RB2 for the remainder of the season.

--WR Danario Alexander (SD): I have always been intrigued by Alexander and he’s finally starting to deliver on some of those expectations. The 24-year old has caught 17 passes for 304 yards and three scores in the previous three games and is averaging nearly 18 yards per grab during that stretch. The 6-foot-5, 217-pound receiver is a freak of nature and is emerging in the Chargers’ receiving corps that was desperately seeking a playmaker to step up in the post-Vincent Jackson Era and Alexander very could be it. If he stays healthy (five knee surgeries), he could have solid long-term value too.

FANTASY INFIRMARY
--Demarco Murray (foot): Practiced for the first time in six weeks Wednesday and was limited again Thursday. He remains hopeful to return in Sunday night’s game against the Eagles. Owners should be careful turning to him too quickly though if they have other solid lineup options.

--Darren McFadden (ankle): Made through practice for a second straight day along with Mike Goodson after missing last three games. Signs are looking good for Week 13’s tilt with Cleveland. The Raiders are likely to ease him back into action though, so use him with caution.

--Mikel Leshoure (ankle):  He returned to the practice field Thursday after missing Wednesday’s practice and sitting out late in the team’s Thanksgiving loss to the Texans. Barring a setback Leshoure appears to be a safe start this weekend. The second-year back has scored five times over the team’s last four contests.

--Percy Harvin (ankle): Harvin did not practice again on Thursday and is headed towards being a game-time decision for Sunday’s meeting vs. Green Bay. It’s not looking good for a return.

--Ben Roethlisberger (rib, shoulder): The team is still holding out hope for a return, but it will come down to whether he has enough arm strength to throw the ball. I am not expecting him for Sunday’s showdown with the Ravens and fantasy owners shouldn’t either.

Injuries to Watch: Danny Amendola (heel), Kyle Rudolph (shoulder), Miles Austin (hip), Matt Forte (ankle), Cecil Shorts (hamstring) and Justin Blackmon (groin)

STUDS TO STICK WITH
(Here’s a look at players I’m starting the rest of the way regardless of matchup)

--QB: A. Rodgers, D. Brees, T. Brady, P. Manning, M. Ryan, R. Griffin III

--RB: A. Foster, R. Rice, A. Peterson, D. Martin, T. Richardson, M. Lynch, C. Johnson, C. Spiller, L. McCoy (when healthy)

--WR: C. Johnson, A. Green, R. Wayne, R. White, B. Marshall, D. Thomas, R. Cobb, D. Bryant, A. Johnson, M. Colston

--TE: J. Graham, T. Gonzalez, A. Hernandez

Fantasy Football fantasy advice, fantasy playbook, week 13, fantasy 101, fantasy injuries, fantasy studs

FANTASY 101
--EARLY LINEUP DECISIONS: With lineups needing to be set early owners need to be sure to guard against late injuries and future restrictions. With the status of many players going on Sunday and Monday still in question when Thursday games go off it could lead to some tough decisions. One recommendation is to be sure you have backup plans in place. You should move any questionable player into your flex spot so you have more flexibility when replacing them.

TURKEY DAY TRENDS
(A quick look at players in action for Thursday and whether or not they will give owners reasons to be thankful)

--QB  Matt Schaub (HOU): Though he’s not going to come any near his 527-yard, 5-TD game we saw in Week 10, there are plenty of reasons to suggest that Schaub will make a formidable fantasy play in Thursday’s game at Detroit. Not only has Schaub thrown for multiple scores in three of his last four outings, but wide receiver Andre Johnson also very much looks to be finally back to his old reliable self. The Lions’ defense is respectable, but they have allowed six passing scores over their past three games.

--RB Mikel Leshoure (DET): Leshoure turned in his best yardage output since his debut week by rushing for 84 yards and a touchdown on 19 carries in Sunday’s loss to the Packers. His 20 total touches were the most he’s received in a seven-week span. The second-year running back has now scored four times in the past three weeks for the Lions. Touchdowns may be tough to come by in Week 12’s Thanksgiving Day meeting with the Texans, who have yet to allow a running back to score on the ground against them all season.

--RB Alfred Morris (WAS): Washington running back Alfred Morris was held out of the endzone for the fourth straight game in Sunday’s win over the Eagles. He has lost some steam in recent weeks and is averaging 70 yards rushing per contest over his last three outings. Morris will look to get back on track on Thanksgiving at Dallas. The Cowboys have allowed four running back rushing touchdowns over their last five games. Morris is a strong RB2 option in Week 12 despite his recent scoring draught.

--WR Dez Bryant (DAL): Bryant appears locked in over the past few weeks and it resulted in his career-best 145 yards on 12 catches in Week 11’s win over the Browns. He scored for the second straight week and is heating up at the right time for owners who have waited patiently his talent to outshine his baggage. Now he gets to face a Redskins’ secondary that has been torched by opposing wideouts to the tune of 27.3 fantasy points per game this season.

FANTASY INFIRMARY
--Felix Jones (knee): Jones suffered a knee injury in Week 11’s win over Cleveland and has not been able to practice all week leaving him as a game-time decision for Thursday’s tilt with the Redskins. Demarco Murray is still sidelined with a foot and will not play. If Jones can’t go look for Lance Dunbar to get the starting nod and Phillip Tanner to get some work as well. Neither are very appealing fantasy plays.

--LeSean McCoy (concussion): It’s looking more likely that McCoy will not be able to suit up for Monday’s matchup with the Panthers. He suffered a concussion last week and is still dealing with headaches three days later and has not been cleared yet to resume football activities. It makes no sense for the 3-7 Eagles to rush him back so expect him to sit in favor of Bryce Brown, who is a must-add filler if available.

--Willis McGahee (knee): Denver put Willis McGahee (knee, leg) on injured reserve with a designation to return. Though he could return during the postseason, he won’t be back in time to help fantasy owners again in 2012. Ronnie Hillman, Lance Ball and Knowshon Moreno will share carries in his absence. Hillman is the best playmaker in the bunch and possesses the most upside. Ball will get the short-yardage and goal line touches while Moreno will see spotted looks.

--Darren McFadden (ankle): McFadden didn’t return to practice on Wednesday and is listed as questionable for Sunday’s trip to Cincinnati. It is not a good sign for his chances to return in Week 12 and with Mike Goodson also still nursing his bad ankle Marcel Reece is in line to handle the load once again. Reece is low-end RB2 play with added upside in PPR formats.

--Rob Gronkowski (arm): The Patriots tight end will be sidelined 4-8 weeks after undergoing surgery Monday for a broken left forearm. Teammate Aaron Hernandez (ankle) is going to return to the lineup after missing four games of his due to injury, but he could be limited Thursday versus the Jets.

Injuries to Watch: Percy Harvin (ankle), Brandon Marshall (shoulder), Jay Cutler (concussion) and Alex Smith (concussion)

TOUGH ROAD AHEAD
(Here’s a quick glance at teams with the top 5 most difficult matchups in fantasy for Weeks 14-16)

--QB: Cardinals, Chargers, Bengals, Vikings, Patriots

--RB: Cardinals, Vikings, 49ers, Ravens, Bills

--WR: Chargers, Cardinals, Vikings, Raiders, Patriots

--TE: Chiefs, Raiders, Bengals, Redskins, Dolphins

Fantasy Football fantasy advice, fantasy playbook, week 12, fantasy 101, fantasy strength of schedule, injury report, fantasy injuries.

FANTASY 101
--NOW OR NEVER: There’s only a few weeks of regular season action left in 2012 fantasy football. For some now is the time for drastic measures. If you are sitting at the top of your league’s standings you don’t want to mess too much with your nucleus, but some final tweaking and adding insurance to your roster is not a bad idea. However, if you are a bubble team you may need to something more. Taking a chance on high-risk, high-reward scenarios may be your only chance for success. Bottom line, the further you are from the top at this point of the season the more chances you need to be taking.


TRENDING IN THE RIGHT DIRECTION
(Looking at some trends that indicate good things for this week and beyond)

--QB  Josh Freeman (TB): When the Bucs hit their bye in Week 5 Freeman had five TD passes, four interceptions and zero 300-yard games. In the five games since he’s thrown for multiple TD’s in every game, averaged 293.4 yards per game and been picked off just once.  His remaining schedule lacks a lock down defense and includes matchups with the Panthers, Saints and two with the Falcons, all of which could be shootouts. Freeman enters Week 11 as the 12th ranked fantasy quarterback in total points. If he keeps this pace up there’s no doubt he’ll finish a top 10 fantasy quarterback by year’s end, especially given all the injuries.

--QB Peyton Manning (DEN): Denver has been friendly thus far to Manning. In four games played in the Mile High City, the Broncos’ signal caller has tallied 1,226 yards and 10 touchdowns with no interceptions playing in front of the home crowd. The Chargers, who are paying a visit this week, have been stringy to quarterbacks most of the year as they’ve allowed the fifth fewest points to fantasy quarterbacks. However, Manning broke 300 yards and threw for three TD’s against them in San Diego earlier this year and appears to be poised for another big day.

--RB Daniel Thomas (MIA): With Reggie Bush struggling, Thomas has seen his role increasingly grow with the Dolphins’ offense. Thomas possesses a 2:1 advantage in snaps over the last three games and seeing an increase in his targets out of the backfield. In the past two games alone he’s caught seven passes, making him a viable PPR lineup option. Now this week he faces a Buffalo defense that has watched running backs hit the end zone 16 times in nine games this season. Bush remains the superior fantasy option, but Thomas is a low-end RB2 versus the Bills in Week 11.

--WR Darrius Heyward-Bey (OAK): DHB has come alive of late, becoming a deep threat for quarterback Carson Palmer. He has been targeted 24 times over the past four games and has reached 74 yards and/or squad in each of those outings, including a five-catch, 82-yard performance last week. Owners could look for him for flex help this week if he is able to go versus a New Orleans secondary that allows 31.8 fantasy points per game to the position.

FANTASY INFIRMARY
--Ben Roethlisberger (shoulder, ribs): Pittsburgh will be without quarterback Ben Roethlisberger this week and likely much longer. Doctors have advised him not to play until his rib is completely healed which could be as long as six weeks. Roethlisberger has a history of playing through injuries, but unlike some of his ankle and leg injuries of the past this injury appears to be a bit more debilitating. Byron Leftwich is in line to start for the Steelers with Charlie Batch serving as his backup in Roethlisberger’s absence.

--Alex Smith (concussion): San Francisco quarterback Alex Smith has passed his concussion tests and has been cleared for non-contact drills. He should return to the practice field on Thursday and barring setbacks should be able to start in Monday night’s game versus the Bears. With one TD pass or less in five of his last seven contests Smith shouldn’t be counted on as fantasy option in this tough matchup even if he plays.

--Jay Cutler (concussion): Although head coach Lovie Smith indicated that quarterback Jay Cutler is “getting better” the Bears are not optimistic that they will have Cutler available for Monday night’s game with the 49ers. Cutler has a long history of concussion issues dating back to his playing days at Vanderbilt which raises additional concern. Former Redskins and Raiders’ signal caller Jason Campbell will get the nod if Cutler can’t go.

--Darren McFadden (ankle): Though the team has still not clearly defined a time frame for injured running back Darren McFadden, FOXSports.com’s Jay Glazer tweeted Wednesday that the team originally viewed the ankle injury as a 2-4 week issue.  It is unlikely that McFadden will play in Week 11 and it appears as if Week 12 is far from a lock either. Marcel Reece will continue to serve as the team’s primary running back in DMC’s absence. Owners should continue to stash McFadden away in hopes of him providing a playoff spark against what is a very favorable slate of games. 

--Greg Jennings (groin, abdomen): The Packers have already ruled Jennings out for Week 11, but the head coach Mike McCarthy did offer some reason for hope for his fantasy owners on Wednesday. He is "a lost closer than any of us thought he'd be at this time," McCarthy said during his weekly press conference. Jennings has been limited to just three games in 2012 due to injuries. Look for James Jones and Randall Cobb to continue to see increased workloads with Jennings sidelined.  

Injuries to Watch: Wes Welker (ankle), Aaron Hernandez (ankle), Antonio Brown (ankle), Pierre Garcon (foot), Darren Sproles (hand)


FRIENDLY SCHEDULES AHEAD
(Here’s a quick glance at teams with the top 5 most favorable matchups in fantasy for Weeks 14-16)

--QB: Rams, Texans, Eagles, Bucs, and Baltimore

--RB: Giants, Jets, Dolphins, Broncos, Chiefs

--WR: Eagles, Chiefs, Saints, Ravens, Rams

--TE: Ravens, Browns, Eagels, Jaguars, Packers

Fantasy Football fantasy playbook, fantasy advice, week 11, fantasy 101, fantasy injuries, trends, schedule analysis

FANTASY 101
--GETTING DEFENSIVE: What should fantasy owners look for when rating a fantasy defense? Knowing your scoring system is a must. The most important thing is the matchup. Consider that aside from the Bears who have an unmatched seven defensive touchdowns, the difference in fantasy points per game so far this year in the 2nd ranked defense (DEN) and 12th ranked defense (ARZ) is less than two points per game. So accurately gauging the week they are going to break out is important. Are sacks and turnovers are scored highly in your league? If so, look for offenses with terrible or injured offensive lines or quarterbacks that turn the ball over at a high rate. If you league rewards units for points allowed, try to avoid defenses whose team often airs it out on offense or play in frequent shootouts.


FANTASY FUNK
(Let’s look at some players struggling right now and assess whether or not they are going to turn things around)

--QB Eli Manning (NYG): The Giants are still in the thick of a playoff hunt, but it’s not because of the recent play of their quarterback. Fantasy owners of Manning may not fare as well. He hasn’t thrown multiple TD passes in a game since Week 5 and has only eclipsed 200 yards once in that span. Even though he still has a bye, Manning should still help owners down the stretch with favorable matchups against the Bengals, Packers, Redskins and Saints over his next four.

--RB Jamaal Charles (KC): Charles hasn’t reached double digits in fantasy points in over a month and hasn’t made his way into the end zone since Week 4. Over his past two games the Chiefs’ runner has hit rock bottom, rushing for only 43 yards on just 17 attempts for a 2.5 yard per carry average. With Kansas City’s quarterback situation a mess and the coaches’ play calling leaving us all scratching the explosive playmaker is becoming a risky option for fantasy lineups.

--WR Dez Bryant (DAL): The Cowboys’ wideout is the ultimate “Dr. Jekyll & Mr. Hyde” fantasy football player. He’s great one week and nearly invisible the next. The fact remains that over his past four outings he’s had two games where he failed to break the 15-yard receiving mark and he’s only score in one of eight games this year. Part of his problem has been nagging injuries, but the bigger issue is his inconsistent effort. Look for big days ahead and some duds thrown in there too.

--TE Vernon Davis (SF): After making the Pro Bowl and playing a big part in the 49ers’ playoff run in 2011, Davis has disappointed in the first half of the season. He scored four time in the season’s first three weeks but hasn’t hit paydirt since. Over his last three games the struggling tight end has totaled only 73 yards on five catches. Coming out of the bye look for the team to try to get Davis more involved. That, along with a friendly schedule, suggests a second-half turnaround.

FANTASY INFIRMARY
--Darren McFadden (ankle): Though the team has yet rule McFadden out for Week 10’s tilt with the Ravens, he missed practice for a second straight day along with backup Mike Goodson, who both suffered high-ankle sprains in last week’s loss to Tampa Bay. Look for Marcel Reece and Taiwan Jones to split carries while the top two backs on the depth chart are sidelined.

--Percy Harvin (ankle): The Vikings receiver said earlier in the week he’d be a long shot to play Sunday against the Lions and after missing two straight practices it appears the Vikings are going to opt to sit him a bye week looming. Without Harvin the struggling Minnesota passing game is going to struggle so aside from Adrian Peterson avoid all Vikings in the week ahead.

--Antonio Brown (ankle): The Steelers wideout did not practice for the second straight day on Thursday after suffering mild high-ankle sprain in Week 9. He’s not expected to suit up Monday Night against Kansas City and may miss multiple weeks. Look for Emmanuel Sanders to see increased looks in Pittsburgh’s passing attack, but it remains to be seen if they’ll be enough to make him fantasy relevant.

--Aaron Hernandez (ankle):  All signs point to Hernandez returning this weekend as the Bills come to town. He didn’t make the trip to London two weeks ago and used the extra time with the bye to get his ailing ankle healed. Expect him to play in Week 10 and be an elite option at a position that offers few playmakers.

--Rashard Mendenhall (Achilles) and Jonathan Dwyer (quad):  Mendenhall was limited in practice on Thursday and reports suggest he’ll sit in Week 10 and target at Week 11 return. After missing last week’s game, Dwyer returned to a full practice Thursday and should play Monday night versus the Chiefs. Isaac Redman had a big game and will start, but Dwyer will get some carries too and is not a bad flex option.

Others of injuries note: Marshawn Lynch (wrist), Calvin Johnson (knee), Hakeem Nicks (knee), Danny Amendola (shoulder), Owen Daniels (hip)


KEEPER LEAGUE TRADE TARGETS
(Here are some guys you should try to lock up on the cheap long term in keeper leagues)

--QB Sam Bradford (STL): Year number one under head coach Jeff Fisher hasn’t brought a huge turnaround in Bradford’s numbers. Yet he’s still on pace to set a career-high in passing yards and come close to matching his TD totals. The team has slowly started to put some young weapons around him and another offseason with Fisher should only lead to more pieces being put in place. At 25 Bradford still has room to grown and continues to possess top 15 and low-end QB1 potential moving into the future.

--RB David Wilson (NYG): With Wilson getting so few looks right now in the Giants’ offense many of the owners that have held onto him may have started to grow impatient. Yet if you have an extra spot for him or have already slipped out of the playoff picture in your league he’s a nice grab and stash candidate. Remember New York thought enough of him to take him over Doug Martin and that talent is going to eventually lead to an opportunity. We are still banking on success, even if doesn’t come to 2013.

--WR Kendall Wright (TEN): The Titans offense is loaded with young and raw talent. Topping that list is the rookie wideout. Unlike my other two names on this list, Wright is actually proving to be quietly productive right now. His ability to stretch the field is going to lead some monster plays. Right now he’s helping out on third downs and has managed to score three times despite inconsistent play at quarterback. Expect him to improve in the season’s second half and be ready to breakout next year for the Titans and fantasy owners alike.

Fantasy Football fantasy advice, fantasy playbook, fantasy 101, injury report, 2013 keeper leagues

FANTASY 101
-TANGLING WITH TIES: Tying is like kissing your sister and it’s even worse in fantasy football. Whether it’s ties in games or for playoff spots let’s look at some ways to avoid. The best way to avoid games ending in ties is moving to decimal point scoring system. This means moving leagues that give one point for every 10 yards rushing or receiving to 0.1 point for every yard and adjusting accordingly with passing. Playoff tiebreakers are a bit more delicate and a situation that needs to be addressed before the season begins to avoid controversy. My preference for these matters has always been total points, but head-to-head, lineup efficiency, and division records could also apply.


STRUGGLING WIDEOUTS
Here are a handful of receivers that have not lived up to their hype thus far in 2012…

--Calvin Johnson (DET): It appears as if the Madden Jinx has struck again, at least for half of season. Megatron, who was the top receiver to be taken and a first-round pick in most fantasy drafts, has found the end zone just one time through his first seven games. Last year he entered Week 9 with 11 scores. His yardage and receptions are close to where they were a year ago, giving reason for hope for better things to come for fantasy owners.

--Andre Johnson (HOU): The Texans’ veteran wideout has been hampered by the team’s run-first philosophy and the lack of other playmakers around him in the passing game. With tight end Owen Daniels appearing to be the team’s top red-zone option through the air, Johnson has managed just 100-yard game and two trips to the end zone. He has shown signs of life over the past two weeks, but his days as a top 10 fantasy wideout may have come to an end.

--Steve Smith (CAR): With Cam Newton struggling mightily in Carolina, Smith has struggled to find fantasy consistency. He has heated up as of late, tallying 18 receptions for 241 yards over his last three contests, but Smith is still searching for his first touchdown of the season.

--Dez Bryant (DAL): Fantasy owners and the Cowboys alike are still waiting for Bryant to deliver on his potential. He has had 95 yards or more in three of his last four games, but has scored in just one of the Cowboys’ seven contests thus far. While he possesses top 10 talent, Bryant will need find more consistency to become a must-start weekly option.


FANTASY INFIRMARY
--Demarco Murray (foot): Murray was missing in action again on Thursday and has not practiced since injuring his ankle in Week 6. He’s doubtful for this week and it remains to be seen if Week 10 will even be possibility. Even when he does return the team will likely ease Murray back into the mix. Fantasy owners need to continue to move forward with him not a part of the lineup plans.

--Rashard Mendenhall (Achilles): Mendenhall participated in a limited capacity in the Steelers practice on Thursday, but those that cover the team are still skeptical that he’ll return in Week 9 versus the Giants. Jonathan Dwyer returned to practice on Thursday too and regardless of Mendenahll’s status will likely get the starting nod this week for Pittsburgh.

--Jordy Nelson (hamstring): The Packers’ wideout will test his hamstring on Friday to see how responds before the team makes a decision regarding his Week 9 status. It would not be surprising at all to see them take it easy with him one more week with their bye following the matchup with the Cardinals. Randall Cobb and James Jones will continue to see increased opportunities in his absence.

--Percy Harvin (hamstring): After being limited in practice on Wednesday, Harvin missed Thursday’s practice altogether raising concern that he may have aggravated the injury. However, head coach Leslie Frazier clarified saying that his receiver missed practice to handle family matters.

--Ryan Tannehill (knee): Reports indicated that Tannehill is 50/50 to start at the Colts Sunday after having his knee drained twice this week. If he sits in Week 9 look for Matt Moore to get the nod. Either way expect Miami to look to run the ball against a Colts’ D that has struggled to slow opposing rushers.

Others of injuries note: Darren Sproles (hand), Ahmad Bradshaw (foot), Dez Bryant (hip), Roddy White (back)


SECOND HALF RISERS
(Players with upside heading down the stretch)

--QB Matthew Stafford (DET): After throwing for just five touchdowns in first six games, the Lions’ QB passed for three scores in last week’s win over Seattle. Despite how ugly Stafford has looked he’s still managed to throw for 301 yards per game primarily he’s averaged 44 attempts a week.  Though he won’t come close to the 41 TD’s he threw last season with only three matchups against top 10 pass defenses ahead of him expect more scoring strikes to come.

--RB Doug Martin (TB): Not only am I encouraged by his scheduled, but the Bucs’ rookie is starting to show glimpses of greatness. Playing as the featured piece in Tampa Bay’s run-first offense, Martin is the only player in the NFC with 500-plus rushing yards (543) and 200-plus receiving yards (224). His touchdown total of four needs to improve a bit for him to become an elite fantasy option, but Martin will prove valuable to fantasy owners on their playoff runs.

--WR Denarius Moore (OAK): Moore’s value continue to rise and after scoring for his third straight game his owners are definitely seeing the dividends. Like the others to make the list, Moore has a favorable slate of games ahead; including four games against teams that rank in the top seven in fantasy points allowed to WR’s this season. The Raider wideout is a top 24 player in scoring at receiver entering Week 11 and could crack the top 15 by year’s end.

Fantasy Football fantasy advice, fantasy playbook, fantasy 101, rising players, fantasy injuries, waiver wire

FANTASY 101
-TURNING THE PAGE: For owners in keeper and dynasty leagues that has fallen out of the race for a playoff spot this the year, now is the time to start thinking about trades.  If you are sitting at 2-5 or worse right now there’s no sense in waiting. The early-bird gets the worm sometimes. Each fantasy team’s situation is unique. A bad season is one of the reasons why keeper/dynasty leagues are fun because you can always start building until next year.


SECOND-YEAR WIDEOUTS
The new magical number for a breakout wide receiver by Year 2 rather than Year 3…

--AJ Green (CIN): Even with his disappointing effort last week vs. the Steelers, AJ Green remains fantasy football’s top scoring wideout (2nd to Victor Cruz in PPR) through seven weeks. He scored in six straight games while averaging 10.3 targets for 6.3 receptions and 94.3 yards per game during that span. While there is plenty of concern surrounding the Bengals as they hit their bye week, there’s no reason to fret of their top player.

--Julio Jones (ATL): Despite being drafted as a top 5 player at the position, Jones has been producing more like a low-end. He flashed what he is capable of in Week 1 when he turned out a 100-yard day while scoring two TD’s. He has only made two trips to the end zone since and has yet to hit the century mark again this season. With a favorable slate ahead and immense talent I still expect a big finish from this Falcon.

--Randall Cobb (GB): With Greg Jennings appearing that he’s getting no closer to return expect the recent streak of success to continue for the Packers’ dynamic second-year wideout Randall Cobb. He has registered 273 yards and three touchdowns on 19 receptions over the last three games. This week the Packers face a Jaguars’ defense that has surrendered 170.5 receiving yards per game to wide receivers on the year while allowing five TD’s to the position over the last four weeks.

--Denarius Moore (OAK): Perhaps one of the rawest receivers from the 2011 draft class has been the Raiders’ fifth-rounder. Moore has battled injuries throughout his brief career, but when on the field he has made a splash. He has good chemistry with Carson Palmer and now that he has shook the hammy injury that plagued him since the summer, Moore is starting to produce. He scored in back-to-back games and has pulled in nine ball for 140 yards in that span.

FANTASY INFIRMARY
--Maurice Jones-Drew (foot): He will miss at least a couple of weeks, maybe 3-4 games as he deals with a foot sprain. With Jacksonville sitting at 1-5 though it seems there’s no reason for the team to rush him back. Expect plenty of opportunities for Rashad Jennings to be a productive fantasy option for the foreseeable future. MJD owners shouldn’t cut him though as he could provide a nice boost come fantasy playoff time if he recovers quickly.

--Trent Richardson (rib): The Browns’ rookie running back participated in practice again on Thursday and appears to be much better than he was last week at this time. It appears that he will play if healthy in Week 8 against the Chargers. There has been some speculation the team would opt to sit him a couple weeks to rest through their Week 10 bye week, but as this point nothing has been formalized as it is very much a day-to-day evaluation. Montario Hardesty is a must-own handcuff for owners that want to cover their bases.

--Jordy Nelson (hamstring): After missing practice for a second straight day with a sore hamstring injury there is reason for concern for Nelson. At best he will be a game-time decision for the Packers’ tilt with the Jaguars on Sunday. He currently ranks No. 1 in our Week 8 rankings, but look for that to change on Saturday’s refresh. Still, if Nelson plays it would be hard to sit him as no receiver has been hotter over the past two weeks.

--Jimmy Graham (ankle): The Saints’ tight end remained limited in practice for the second straight day as he tries to return to action after missing Week 7’s win at Tampa Bay. It appears that Graham is nearing a return, but his status for Sunday’s game at Denver is still very much up in the air. Owners will want to ensure that he continues to make progress before inserting Graham in the lineup.

--Rashard Mendenhall (Achilles): The Steelers running back was held out of practice for the second straight day on Thursday. His chances are playing this week aren’t looking good. Isaac Redman (ankle) did return in limited fashion after missing Wednesday’s practice. Jonathan Dwyer will get the nod if both players sit, but expect a running back-by-committee approach for Pittsburgh in Week 8 vs. Washington.

Others of injuries note: Ahmad Bradshaw (foot), Danny Amednola (clavicle), Felix Jones (knee), Donald Brown (knee) all listed as questionable


BYE-WEEK FILLERS
--QB Sam Bradford (STL): One week after posting solid numbers against the Packers, Rams’ signal caller Sam Bradford has an appealing matchup in Week 8 as the Rams travels to London to face New England. The Patriots have ceded 300-yard passing days to four of the last five quarterbacks they’ve faced with 13 passing touchdowns allowed during that span. Bradford makes a decent bye-week filler option in Week 8 in a game that you figure the Rams will have to air it out in.

--RB Michael Bush (CHI): With just 20 carries for 91 yards and no touchdowns over his past three games, it may be hard for owners to trust Bush. However, with the Panthers paying a trip to Solider Field this could be the week to use them. If Chicago builds  a big lead as expected Bush could get plenty of touches against a defense the 8th most points to fantasy running backs this season.

--WR Ryan Broyles (DET): With Nate Burleson put on the IR with a broken leg there are opportunities for increased targets for the struggling Titus Young and rookie Ryan Broyles. Young has shown little to this point of the season, but could be worth a second look off the waiver wire. The higher ceiling is likely to come from Broyles, who was college football’s all-time leader in receptions while playing at Oklahoma. He had six catches after Burleson went down on Monday night.

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FANTASY 101
-DON’T LET THE TV FOOL YOU: Too often owners make lineup decisions on being able to watch their players. You can make a decision because you want to have a player going for Thursday Night Football or you want to save something for Monday Night’s game. You have to play the best players with the best matchups regardless whether you’ll get to watch their game or not.


BIG THINGS AHEAD
These players’ schedules ahead suggest big fantasy production (Week 7 thru 13)…

--Andrew Luck (IND): Don’t look, but the rookie is proven to be good luck for owners that have given him a chance. With his bye week behind him, Luck is poised for a strong finish. He currently ranks fifth in the league with 297.6 passing yards per game and has thrown for multiple scores three times in five contests. Cleveland a decent matchup this week and it will followed by three of the next five games against teams that have been friendly to fantasy passers – the Titans, Bills, and Jaguars.

--Willis McGahee (DEN): No running back has a better a more friendly slate ahead over the next five week than the Broncos’ workhorse. After his bye this week, McGahee returns to face the Saints, Bengals, Panthers, Chargers, Chiefs and Bucs over his next six. Despite failing to rush for 65 yards or score in four of six games thus far, McGahee still has a crack as finishing as a top 10 fantasy running back if he stays healthy down the stretch.

--DeSean Jackson and Jeremy Maclin (PHI): Neither Eagle wideout has exploded yet this season, at least on a consistent basis. However, chances are that will change down the stretch. Maclin is finally 100 percent and has scored in three of his five outings. Jackson has eclipsed 70+ yards in four of six games. Both benefit from a friendly post-bye schedule as the Eagles are set for a shootout with the Falcons in Week 8, followed by tilts versus Saints, Cowboys (who they’ve both fared well against), the Redskins and Panthers.

--Greg Olsen (CAR): Despite being held to under 60 yards in the three of his five games this season and only making one trip to the end zone so far, expect a strong finish from the Panthers’ tight end. With his bye behind him Olsen’s toughest matchup ahead doesn’t come until Week 12 vs. the Eagles. He should have moderate success with the Cowboys and Bears before two stellar matchups with the Redskins and Broncos the following two weeks.

FANTASY INFIRMARY
--Demarco Murray (foot): Murray will sit in Week 7, leaving Felix Jones to start in a terrific matchup with the Panthers. There is a chance that this could be a multiple-week injury, but the good news is that doesn’t appear to be a season-threatening one. 

--Rashard Mendenahll (Achilles): For the second straight day both Mendenhall and fellow running back Isaac Redman sat out of practice. Between the two it appears that Mendenhall’s injury is less significant, but at this time they are both heading towards being game-time decisions. Look Jonathan Dwyer, who’s been a healthy scratch the past two games, to lead by backfield-by-committee along with Baron Batch and Chris Rainey if both backs are held out.

--Greg Jennings (hip): Early indications point to Jennings missing his fourth game of the season due to injury and his third straight. He was held out of practice on Thursday and the team is clearly taking their time to ensure the veteran doesn’t suffer another setback. Look for both James Jones and Randall Cobb to continue to see expanded roles in the Packers’ passing attack in their tough matchup with the stingy Rams’ D.

--Jimmy Graham (ankle): The Pro Bowl tight end returned to a limited practice on Thursday. He left the team’s last game early with an injury, but had a bye week to rest. However, team beat writer Mike Triplett of NOLA.com speculates that Graham will be a game-time decision at Tampa Bay.

Others of injuries note: Trent Richardson (rib), Brandon Bolden (knee), Pierre Garcon (foot), Mario Manningham (shoulder).


WIRE WATCH
--QB Matt Hasselbeck (TEN): The Titans are hoping to get Jake Locker back in Week 8, but this week it once again be Hasselbeck that gets the nod against a Bills’ D that has allowed more fantasy points to QB’s than any other team. With Matt Ryan, Phillip Rivers, Michael Vick and Peyton Manning among players on a bye this week, the veteran signal caller could be a very nice one-week filler option.

--RB David Wilson (NYG): After watching Ahmad Bradshaw tally his two-highest workloads of the season over the last two weeks it is seemingly only a matter of time before his shaky durability history surfaces. Wilson is too explosive to remain sidelined for long. It appears as if he’s already past Andre Brown on the depth chart and his fresh legs could be a difference maker for the Giants and fantasy owners alike heading down the stretch.

--WR Donnie Avery (IND): Avery has been very inconsistent this season as he and Andrew Luck have to get to get fully in sync. Still, you can’t argue the fact he’s not getting looks. Avery has been targeted 8 or more times in each of his games and ranks among the top 25 in the league in that category. This week he faces a Browns defense that has allowed the second most fantasy points to wideouts.

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FANTASY 101
--WEIGHING THE MATCHUP: Sometimes in fantasy it’s not always the best move to play the best player, rather the best matchup. Don’t be too stubborn with your studs, especially the underperforming ones. Last week was a perfect example all indicators pointed to Ryan Fitzpatrick being a great play and I have him on all three of my teams. Putting in the lineup was still tough for me to do. I played him over Jay Cutler with Ben Roethlisberger on the bye, but opted to keep him on the bench and keep Cam Newton and Eli Manning in. All three had solid days, but Fitzpatrick outscored both players by four and nine points respectively. This week Fitzpatrick is up against San Francisco and back out my lineup considerations.


TIME TO CUT BAIT
QB Russell Wilson (SEA) – Has yet to throw for 200 yards and just 4 PaTD (one of them shouldn’t have counted) to go along with four interceptions. He’s only is averaging 20 yards per game rushing and hasn’t ran for a score. With his starting job in jeopardy there’s no reason to hold out hope.

RB Mark Ingram (NO) – With the Saints struggling to win, much less build a lead, Ingram has been relatively useless through the first quarter of the season. He’s been held under 20 yards rushing in three of his four games so far this year and has just one catch in four weeks. With Darren Sproles and Pierre Thomas getting way more touches, Ingram is simply too risky to put anywhere near a fantasy lineup right now.

WR Robert Meachem (SD) – There was much made of Meachem’s arrival to San Diego this offseason, but right out of the gate he has struggled to get any chemistry going with Phillip Rivers. He has a total of six catches for 92 yards and 0 TD’s in his first four games as a Charger while being targeted only 15 times in that span, including two games with two targets.

WR Randy Moss (SF) – Despite adding so many new offensive weapons in the passing game this offseason the 49ers remain a run-first football team. Moss teased owners with a Week 1 touchdown, but with only 88 yards on eight receptions through four games that score is a distant memory. Moss’ snaps are limited and the fact he has had one target in half of the team’s games thus far shows he’s not worthy of a roster spot.

FANTASY INFIRMARY
RB Steven Jackson (groin) – Jackson has been battling this lingering injury the past two weeks, but is expected to start on Thursday night vs. ARZ. Over the past two games he’s only mustered 84 yards on 29 attempts for a dismal 2.8 yards per rush average. Even though he’s playing, owners may want to look elsewhere until Jackson gets 100 percent.

RB Rashard Mendenhall (knee) – All signs point to Mendenhall making his way back to the Steelers lineup in Week 5 after missing the team’s first three games as he recovers from an ACL injury that ended his 2011 campaign. He may be risky using right out of the gate, especially against a tough Philly rushing D. However, both Isaac Redman and Jonathan Dwyer have struggled in his absence so it’s only a matter of time before Mendenhall carries the full load.

WR Greg Jennings (groin) – The Packers have officially ruled Jennings out for Week 5 vs. IND. Look for James Jones to start and all Packers wideouts to get an extra bump of activity in his absence. The team and Jennings appear ready to sit out this time until he’s 100 percent which could take a few weeks.

WR Hakeem Nicks (foot, knee) – After missing practice for the second straight day on Thursday the Giants have ruled wide receiver Hakeem Nicks out for this week’s tilt with the Browns. Expect Domenik Hixonto continue to play a larger role in the offense and even more this week with Ramses Barden dealing with a concussion.

Others of note: Kenny Britt (foot), Rob Gronkowksi (hip), Lance Moore (hamstring), Ben Tate (toe), Peyton Hillis (ankle).


WIRE WATCH
QB Kevin Kolb (ARZ) – The Cardinals are sitting at 4-0 entering this week’s action and though the defense is a big reason why, Kolb and the team’s offense has to get some of the credit. Arizona is struggling to move the ball on the ground and that has lead to some gaudy numbers. He turned in his first three-TD day while throwing for 324 yards last week in a win over the Dolphins. He could prove to be a nice bye-week filler in the weeks ahead.

RB Jackie Battle (SD) – Fantasy owners were shocked last week when Chargers’ coach Norv Turner started Battle over Ryan Mathews, but Battle made the most of his opportunity. He finished with 19 touches for 81 total yards and a pair of touchdowns last week in a win over the Chiefs. Though Mathews is clearly still San Diego’s best back and definitely in the mix, Battle is going to remain the starter for now and is a borderline lineup option until further notice.

WR Brian Hartline (MIA) – Hartline hauled in a career-best 12 receptions for 253 yards and a touchdown in a loss to the Cardinals a week ago and is now 455 yards and a TD on 25 catches for the season. Somehow he was still available in over 60 percent of fantasy leagues before the game, but that is changing quickly. If he’s still in their in your league don’t hesitate to add him.

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