INSIDE THE NUMBERS
After a dismal 2010 campaign, much of which can be accredited to having Jimmy Clausen at quarterback, Steve Smith re-emerged as an elite fantasy wideout last season. He tallied 100 receiving yards and/or a touchdown in 10 of his 16 starts. The fact he played in 16 games was a feat in itself, Smith has played in at least 14 games in each of the last seven seasons. As the year progressed teams began to double and triple team him. With improved surrounding weapons, Smith should be able to find enough openings to make him a top 10 WR again this season.

SCHEDULE
The Panthers play seven teams that finished in the top 16 in terms of fantasy points allowed to running backs in 2011 which spells good news for the team’s ground weapons. Three of the team’s first four games come against divisional foes. The bye week comes in Week 6 and Carolina currently has two games schedule for prime time with at Thursday night tilt vs. the Giants and a Monday night affair at the Eagles on tap. Four of the team’s last four games are on the road. The playoff matchups against the Falcons, at the Chargers, and home with the Raiders are manageable.

STUD
Cam Newton was disregarded by most owners leading up to his rookie season, but after just one short year he’s risen to the top of fantasy football rankings across the web. Newton starts the preseason at No. 2 on the GSI Cheat Sheet on the heels of a season which he threw for 4,051 yards and 21 touchdowns and garnered another 706 yards and 14 scores on the ground. While it’s reasonable to expect a dip in the rushing totals, an increase in the passing stats and a cut down on the 24 turnovers is also likely.

DUD
Despite proven to be a productive fantasy commodity at times in San Diego, Mike Tolbert could be hard pressed for opportunities in his new uniform. With Newton being a vulture of touches at the goalline and a crowded backfield it remains to be seen where Tolbert will fit in the Panthers’ offense. However, the team signed him for a purpose so he’s worth keeping your eyes on. Some will stretch for him based off name recognition, but he’s nothing more than a late-round stab in deeper formats in our eyes.

SLEEPER
A breakout season could be on tap for third-year wide receiver Brandon LaFell. With the Legedu Naanee experiment officially over in Carolina, LaFell will slide into a starting spot opposite of Steve Smith in the Panthers’ offense. Even if a limited role a year ago, LaFell managed 613 yards and three touchdowns receiving. Targets may be tough to come by, but even if he’s plagued with inconsistency 65 catches for 900 yards and 5 touchdowns are modest projections. View him as a WR4 or WR5 with some nice upside.

NEW ADDITION
Not yet comfortable with its depth at receiver, the Panthers traded for Louis Murphy just before the start of training camp. The former Raider has always had the potential, but had a problem staying on the field. It’s going to take his some time to work into the mix with Carolina, so his draft value is extremely low. However, during the course of the season and beyond he could develop into a worthy option for the Panthers and fantasy owners alike.

POSITION BATTLE
The Carolina backfield has been a head scratcher for the past couple of seasons for fantasy owners as both DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart have shown flashes of brilliance at times while being non-factors on occasion as well. Williams had more touches last year, but Stewart became more a factor in the passing game as he caught 47 balls. If Williams stays healthy he’s the back to grab, but he’s high-end WR3 at best. Stewart value rises if Williams goes down, but still could be a RB3 in his own right. With Tolbert and Newton taking short-yardage touches, but players will post modest scoring numbers.

BENCH BUILDER
Owners can do much worse than Greg Olsen as a TE2 option. His debut season in Carolina wasn’t spectacular as he finished with 45 catches for 540 yards and five touchdowns. However, with Jeremy Shockey no longer in the equation is reasonable to expect an increase in numbers. Olsen has always had the tools and now needs to just find a bit more consistency to become a more viable fantasy option.

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I've posted my QB, RB and WR busts. Here are a couple wide receivers who might disappoint fantasy owners:

Kevin Boss (NYG) – Boss is a borderline #1 tight end in most league formats. But, he is coming off an injury that he continues to nurse. Plus, he was far too inconsistent to cause anything but frustration for most owners. This is not what you want from a TE1. Additionally, the Giants have discovered many weapons on the offensive side of the ball, like Steve Smith, Mario Manningham and Hakeem Nicks. There's just not enough to go around to make Boss an elite tight end and therefore, count on a down year from the Boss Man.

Greg Olsen (CHI) – Olsen is one of the few offensive weapons the Bears have, but unfortunately, a new offensive play caller is in the Windy City. Mike Martz, the so-called offensive genius, is the new offensive coordinator and he rarely involves tight ends in his offense. Despite a career year for Olsen, don't count on the same production this year from the Bears' tight end.

Jeremy Shockey (NO) – People, it's not the early 2000s any more and please stop considering Shockey an elite tight end. Heck, Shockey is not even worthy of a starting spot in your fantasy lineup. If your league requires a tight end spot in your lineup, then Shockey is, at best, a bye week filler. Leave him for the guy in your league who hasn't checked his calendar yet and take a chance on one of the sleepers listed here instead of Shockey.

Follow me on Twitter at dafantasygeek or find me on Facebook

Fantasy Football fantasy busts, kevin boss, jeremy shockey, greg olsen

The Chicago Bears named former Rams’ head coach Mike Martz as their new offensive coordinator on Monday.  Known for his zany play-calling and aggressive passing, he could be just the boost that Jay Cutler needs to kick start his career and once again become fantasy relevant.

We all know about what he did during his days leading the “Greatest Show on Turf”, but what about his days since then as an offensive coordinator?

His most recent in San Francisco wasn’t the best, but the team wasn’t a great fit and once Mike Singletary took over it simply wasn’t a match.

However, before that he did have some impact in Detroit. He helped Jon Kitna pass for 4,000 yards in a season in both years he was there. Wide receiver Roy Williams enjoyed his best season as a pro, finishing with 1,310 yards, 7 TDs in 2006.  Running back Kevin Jones posted a career-high 61 catches and 520 receiving yards during the same season. Under Martz, even wide receivers Shaun McDonald and Mike Furrey showed up on the fantasy radar and haven’t since.

Chicago still lacks talent at wide receiver and I don’t know if there will ever be a great passing game in the Windy City late in the season due to the elements and that is never good come fantasy playoff time. Still, here’s my take on what it means from a fantasy standpoint:

--Jay Cutler: He will get back to throwing over 4,000 yards and will see an increase in passing touchdowns.  I still expect him to turn over the ball at a high rate, but the arrival of Martz definitely keeps him in the low-end range of QB1 heading into next season. His value goes up even more if the Bears are able to improve at receiver during the off-season.

--Matt Forte: Already solid in PPR formats, Forte will be a top 5 running back in league’s where you get points for receptions. Under Martz though I am not sure his rushing numbers will go up and his total touchdowns shouldn’t see much of an increase either.

--Greg Olsen: Tight ends have never been a big part of the Martz’ offense. Still, Olsen is the most-gifted target Cutler currently has so expect him to have a large role.

--Bears wideouts: Martz will get value out of them and will be able to utilize the blazing speed the group possesses. It will be interesting to see which receivers emerge on the depth chart, but rest assured at least one of them will. Figuring out which one may be tougher than you think though.

Fantasy Football fantasy advice, mike martz, chicago bears, jay cutler, matt forte, greg olsen

This is the point of the draft where every player has baggage, but also where gems can be found:

RECAPS: Round One | Round Two | Round Three | Round Four | Round Five

MY PICKS: I added a third running back and a third receiver in Rounds Six and Seven by nabbing Knowshon Moreno and Donald Driver. One of these two guys will be my starting flex option. Moreno has competition in Denver, but I think he's going to have the most immediate impact of the rookie runners. I love him as a RB3, but he may not get going quickly enough to be a lock as a RB2. Driver is not flashy, but he is consistent. With Aaron Rodgers being so highly regarded you have to figure Drive is safe pick here and will provide nice depth.

BEST VALUE PICKS: Matt Ryan (nice pick this late); Anthony Gonzalez (ready to step up w/Harrison gone); Felix Jones (will see increased role in Dallas); Greg Olsen (on the rise).

MOST LIKELY TO DISAPPOINT: Antonio Bryant (QB questions); Willie Parker (declining role); Santana Moss (too inconsistent); Jamal Lewis (tank is empty).

FINAL TAKE: These rounds are the most fun to me. You are still drafting guys that will start regularly in many cases so the margin for error is slim. Typically, I go for younger players with more upside at this point. However, I had to settle for a veteran in Driver after some of the young receivers I was targetting fell off the board.

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OK it has had some time to seek in, let's look at the fantasy implications of Cutler leaving Denver for the Windy City:

BEARS
Jay Cutler - Expect a dip in numbers, at least in the short-term. For starters, the Bears lack the wideouts and the offensive line he had in Denver. Secondly, Lovie Smith and his staff are not a pass-first offense and even if they adjust a bit it will be gradual. Cutler threw for 4,526 yards last season, don't expect him to sniff that number in 2009. On talent alone, he's still a top fantasy QB heading into next year, but before the off-season shakedown I would have argued him as top five passer.

Matt Forte - Forte's value immediately goes up with a capable signal caller at the helm. I'm not expecting his yardage totals or receptions to see a huge hike, but it's hard to imagine that he won't get more opportunities to score touchdwns and in fantasy that is what matters most. Forte is a borderline top five pick at running back for 2009 and a sure-fire first rounder.

Devin Hester - Hester really started to show signs of his big-play ability during the 2008 campaign despite the fact Kyle Orton struggled to get him the ball deep. Cutler has the arm to battle the winds of Solider Field and will be able to deliver accurate passes deep for Hester to cash in on some big plays. Still, this trade will likely lead to Hester being overvalued by many come draft day. I look at him as a solid WR3 for your fantasy team with some serious upside.

Greg Olsen - I have always been a fan of Olsen's, but for the most part he has not lived up to hype and has been inconsistent as a fantasy tight end. However, with the Bears likely to open up the passing a bit more with Cutler and the lack of receivers on the team common sense suggests that the big tight end will quickly become one of Cutler's favorite targets.

BRONCOS
Kyle Orton - It is not a given that he will start in Denver and there appears to be a QB battle brewing with Chris Simms. One thing is for sure, Josh McDaniel's is going to be a pass-first coach and will utilize a system quarterback. The Broncos will likely look for a more long-term option in the draft, but for the 2009 season Orton has the opportunity to be a nice grab as a backup quarterback. If he wins the job outright, it's safe to assume his fantasy value will see a boost.

Denver RB's - With Mike Shanahan gone, so to are the days of banking on the Broncos' backfield for fantasy success. Youngster Ryan Torrain and incumbents Selvin Young and Andre Hall will be fighting for their roster spots as newcomers Correll Buckhalter, LaMont Jordan, and J.J Arrington are all going have a role. Until somebody steps out in the competition owners should try to avoid the headaches altogether.

Brandon Marshall/Eddie Royal - Marshall has bigger problems to deal with, but the loss of Cutler coupled with his off-the-field drama has me dropping him down a tier in my rankings. The guy has huge talent, but now he also carries with him a lot of question marks. Royal will also see a dip in his numbers with the departure of Cutler. Both receivers are still worth owning, but the gamble is going to be there so draft accordingly.

Fantasy Football broncos, bears, jay cutler, matt forte, devin hester, greg olsen, kyle orton, ryan torain, selvin young, andre hall, correll buckhalter, lamont jordan, jj arrington, brandon marshall, eddie royal

Here is our Line-Up Locks for Week 12. Thursday's night match up will not be included. Here's a quick look at those who has favorable matchups (LOCK IN) and those who deserve a spot on your bench this week (LOCK OUT):

QUARTERBACKS
Lock In:
--Matt Cassel @ Mia
My take: 400+ yards last week. You probably had him on your bench. Don't make that mistake this week in a great match up.

--Aaron Rodgers @ NO
My take: This is a very sexy match up for the Packers QB who has been very consistent of late.

--Tony Romo vs. SF
My take: He looked a little rusty last week, but the Cowboys were playing a much better opponent last week. This week Romo and the Boys get healthy quickly versus a vulnerable 49ers defense.

Fantasy Football matt cassel, aaron rodgers, tony romo, jake delhomme, brett favre, chad pennington, steve slaton, warrick dunn, marshawn lynch, thomas jones, maurice jones-drew, tim hightower, dwayne bowe, bernard berrian, donald driver, desean jackson, donnie avery, laveranues coles, owen daniels, chris cooley, greg olsen, lj smith, todd heap, anthony fasano

Did you miss this week's Fantasy Playbook as I go on with Lance McAlister on 1530 Homer the Sports Animal? Either way here's my notes from the show...

TREND OR MIRAGE
QB Kyle Orton (133 PaYd, 0 TDs in return to action) – MIRAGE – Orton’s ankle appears to be 100% and starting this week against the Rams he has four match-ups over his last six games against teams that rank in the top 10 in fantasy points allowed to QB’s.

RB LaDainian Tomlinson (First RuTD in 5 weeks vs. PIT ) – TREND – LT is going to produce big down the stretch as he too has a favorable schedule for fantasy RB’s with games Colts, Raiders, Chiefs, and Broncos still on the slate.

RB Brandon Jacobs (5 TD’s over past 3 games) – MIRAGE – Not only is he dealing with a sore knee which could limit him, the Giants also have one the most grueling schedules ahead for fantasy RB’s with games still ahead with the Redskins, Eagles, Panthers, and Vikings.

WR TJ Houshmandzadeh (12 receptions last week vs. PHI) – TREND – His 16 targets last week had a great deal to do with his season-high in receptions and with Chad Johnson deactivated those numbers will go up. Despite the Bengals’ woes he remains a stellar #2 fantasy wideout.


INJURY REPORT
Reggie Bush (knee) – Bush did not make it back last week against the Chiefs and is likely going to be a game-time decision for Monday night’s showdown with the Packers. With Deuce McAllister facing a suspension and dealing with a knee injury of his own and Aaron Stecker placed on I.R. this week, Pierre Thomas has emerged as Bush’s best handcuff-option.

Matt Schaub (knee) – Texans’ coach Gary Kubiak revealed Monday that Matt Schaub's recovery from a torn MCL is behind schedule and he could miss four more weeks. The Texans’ passing game has taken a bit of a dip with Sage Rosenfels at the helm, but don’t expect Schaub back anytime soon.

Steven Jackson (quadriceps) – The Rams have no idea when and if Jackson will return. He has been ruled out for Week 12 and with St. Louis in last place at 2-8 there isn’t really a need to rush the franchise running back. Antonio Pittman is currently the starter in his absence.


VALUE PACK
QB – Eli Manning (@Ari): Despite recent struggles the Giants’ signal-caller is a safe bet for a nice day against a Cardinals’ defense that is giving up 17.9 fantasy points per game to quarterbacks.

RB – Warrick Dunn (@Det): Earnest Graham is out for the season, making Dunn the starter in Tampa Bay. The Bucs face the Lions this week and they are giving up a league-worst 171 yards per game on the ground. The veteran is a solid RB2 option here.

WR – Wes Welker (@Mia): Welker had 20 catches for 242 yards and a pair of touchdowns in two games last year against his former team. Look for another big day for the Patriots’ receiver when he heads back to Miami this week.

TE – Greg Olsen (@StL): Look for the second-year tight end to have a nice day against the Rams, only four teams have allowed more fantasy points to the position.

DEF – Cowboys (vs. SF): The Cowboys’ D has been downright awful at times this season. However, expect a nice fantasy day on Sunday as they host the 49ers. San Fran allows more points to fantasy defenses than any other team.

**CATCH THE SHOW ON 1530HOMER.COM - Click on Thursday's 4:00 hour (4:30 weekly)**

On a side note: this week I appeared with Nick Brunker as my good friend Lance McAlister in the hospital. He's doing much better now, but it has been a long week for him. Please keep Lance in your thoughts and prayers. 

Fantasy Football kyle orton, ladainian tomlinson, brandon jacobs, tj houshmandzadeh, reggie bush, matt schaub, steven jackson, eli manning, warrick dunn, wes welker, greg olsen, cowboys def

Here is our Line-Up Locks for Week 11. Bye weeks are finally over and this week's games have a lot of great match ups. I only list three, but there are plenty of good options this week. Here's a quick look at those who have favorable matchups (LOCK IN) and those who deserve a spot on your bench this week (LOCK OUT):

QUARTERBACKS
Lock In:
--Matt Ryan vs. Den
My take: Ryan has performed like a veteran for the very underrated Atlanta Falcons. This week his match up is so good, you have to consider Ryan a top 10 QB this week. Expect a couple of scores and at least 200 yards from him.

--Donovan McNabb @ Cin
My take: McNabb should have time to shred the Bengals defense, and can still scramble away from any pressure the defense might put on him.

--Trent Edwards vs. Cle
My take: Edwards has been hot and cold but is poised for a very nice week in what could be an offensive shootout.

Fantasy Football matt ryan, donovan mcnabb, trent edwards, chad pennington, eli manning, david garrard, deangelo williams, tim hightower, marshawn lynch, maurice jones-drew, earnest graham, justin fargas, santana moss, steve smith, roddy white, vincent jackson, bernard berrian, marvin harrison, chris cooley, owen daniels, kellen winslow, greg olsen, todd heap, kevin boss

Here is our Week 9 edition of Line-Up Locks. Here's a quick look at those who have favorable matchups (LOCK IN) and those who deserve a spot on your bench this week (LOCK OUT):
 
QUARTERBACKS
Lock In:
--Kurt Warner @ StL
My take: This game could be a real shootout. Warner should be one of the top performing quarterbacks of the week.

--Chad Pennington @ Den
My take: The Broncos allow the second highest amount of points in the NFL AND they will be without Champ Bailey. Pennington will light up the Broncos this week.

--David Garrard @ Cin
My take: Garrard has really turned up his play of late and that trend will continue against a Bengals defense that is injury-depleted.

Lock Out:
--Derek Anderson vs. Bal
My take: Expect a low-scoring effort from everyone in this game. Anderson might get a TD, but he will be pressured and confused which will lead to low yardage totals and turnovers.

--Jason Campbell vs. Pitt
My take: Campbell will be tested in this game. With their confusing schemes and blitz packages, the Steelers will keep Campbell’s production to a minimum.

--Brett Favre @ Buf
My take: This could be one of the best games of the week. Buffalo is stinging from their first conference loss and will look for revenge against the Jets. Favre has not looked like himself lately, which is reason for concern if you’re a Favre owner.


RUNNING BACKS
Lock In:
--Earnest Graham @ KC
My take: Warrick Dunn is injured which means Graham will get almost all the carries against the league’s worst run defense. Graham will go off this week.

--Maurice Jones-Drew @ Cin
My take: You invested in an early pick for MJD and this will be the week you’ll be glad you did. Jones-Drew will exploit a porous Bengals defense.

--Matt Forte vs. Det
My take: Forte is pretty much an every week starter as it is, but if somehow you play matchups with him, the match up doesn’t get any better for this rookie stud.

Lock Out:
--Cedric Benson vs. Jax
My take: Benson has looked better than Chris Perry, but he’s still not worth a start, especially this week.

--Steve Slaton @ Min
My take: Slaton will face the toughest match up of his NFL career this week and likely will be unproductive.

--Edgerrin James @ StL
My take: It’s a nice match up for James, but he’s been losing carries and TDs to rookie Tim Hightower. James is not really a viable fantasy starter any more.


WIDE RECEIVERS
Lock In:
--Roddy White @ Oak
My take: If you haven’t been paying attention, Matt Ryan and Roddy White have become quite a duo. White has to be an every week starter at this point. Get him in your lineup.

--Donnie Avery vs. Ari
My take: Last week I mentioned that I still wasn’t sold on Avery. I am now ready to say that he has convinced me that he’s worth starting; this week especially in what could be a shootout.

--Anquan Boldin @ StL
My take: Along with Larry Fitzgerald, a healthy Anquan Boldin must be in your lineup and in a potential shootout, expect lots of looks and lots of potential TDs.

Lock Out:
--Terrell Owens @ NYG
My take: (This is the same thing I said last week, but it says it all, so I’ll copy and paste it) Did you see how bad the Cowboys offense looked without Tony Romo? They will be without him again this week, and that means, it's time to put TO on your bench. He'll probably whine about it, but do it anyway.

--Santana Moss vs. Pit
My take: Usually Moss is a worthy starter, but this week, play the match up and move him to your bench as Pittsburgh’s defense should keep the scoring low.

--TJ Houshmandzadeh vs. Jax
My take: In a PPR league, Housh still has value, but otherwise, it might be time to consider trading him or benching him, especially this week.


TIGHT ENDS
Lock In:
--Greg Olsen vs. Det
My take:  The Bears, all Bears, have a great match up. Olsen makes for a fantastic this week.

--Anthony Fasano @ Den
My take: As mentioned earlier, the Broncos defense is susceptible and Pennington will have time to throw the ball and Fasano could benefit from that.

--Kellen Winslow vs. Bal
My take: Winslow has stunk as a fantasy option this year, but expect him to step up his performance. While it’s a tough, low-scoring match up, Winslow could find the end zone.

Lock Out:
--Heath Miller @ Was
My take: The Redskins will keep Roethlisberger from having time and Miller will not be a factor in this game.

--Tony Gonzalez vs. TB
My take: The Bucs defense is very undervalued. They are stout and face Tyler Thigpen. As a result, I just don’t see any Chiefs receiver being worth a start.

--Chris Cooley vs. Pit
My take: Cooley might still be your best option, but keep your expectations to a minimum for him this week.


TEAM DEFENSE/ST
Lock In:
--Minnesota vs. Hou
--Jacksonville @ Cin
--Tampa Bay @ KC

Lock Out:
--Miami @ Den
--Arizona @ SL
--St. Louis vs. Ari

Fantasy Football line-up locks, kurt warner, chad pennington, david garrard, derek anderson, jason campbell, brett favre, earnest graham, warrick dunn, maurice jones-drew, matt forte, cedric benson, steve slaton, edgerrin james, roddy white, donnie avery, anquan boldin, terrell owens, santana moss, tj houshmandzadeh, greg olsen, anthony fasano, kellen winslow, heath miller, tony gonzalez, chris cooley

In place of our normal Fantasy Traffic Light this week, we take time to look ahead to the second half of the fantasy season:

QUARTERBACKS
STUD: Peyton Manning – The Colts are getting healthy and he’s thrown for multiple scores in 3 of his last 4 games. A good stretch of games coming up with NE (banged up), PIT (tough), HOU, SD, CLE and CIN on the slate over the next 6 weeks.

DUD: Phillip Rivers – He has looked so good to this point, but the Chargers’ remaining schedule is fantasy-friendly for quarterbacks with tilts against the Steelers, Colts, and Bucs (in final week). The easy match-ups within the division better suit the team running the ball.

RUNNING BACKS
STUD: LaDainian Tomlinson – He showed last year he can be a productive back in the second half. He ran the ball 176 times for 857 yards (4.9 yards per carry) and scored 11 total touchdowns (nine rushing) in the last two months last year. Two of Tomlinson's upcoming opponents this December - the Oakland Raiders and the Kansas City Chiefs, whom the Chargers also face in Week 10 - have a poor history against the Chargers back and a porous run defense.

DUD: Marion Barber - In the Cowboys remaining 8 games they will face a top 10 rushing defense 6 of those weeks. In weeks 14-16 the Cowboys will see the league's third, seventh and first ranked rushing defenses.

WIDE RECEIVERS
STUD: Bernard Berrian – If you can get by the next few weeks of tough games, Berrian’s upside in the playoffs is great. Not only does he get three cupcakes in Detroit, Arizona, and Atlanta, he will benefit from playing December fantasy playoff games in either a dome or in the desert.

DUD: Kevin Walter – The Texas No. 2 wideout has excelled of late, but Houston plays a tough schedule down the stretch with the Vikings and Ravens the next two weeks and stingy WR match-ups in the critical 14-16 week stretch with the Packers, Titans, and Raiders on the slate.

TIGHT ENDS
STUD: Greg Olsen – I am still just waiting for this guy to blowup. The fun starts this week against the Lions, who are giving up mass points through the air and big performances to tight ends. Three games at Solider Field during the playoffs could be a problem, but the match-ups suggest a strong second half.

DUDS: Titans’ Tight Ends – Alge Crumpler and Bo Scaife may have been turned to for bye-week fillers, but neither should be counted on as starting options during the second half of the season. Playoff match-ups against Browns, Texans, and Steelers are more troubling than they appear to be.

TEAM DEFENSES
STUD: Jaguars – Their playoff match-ups aren’t as favorable as I would like, but the next few weeks look good, especially the next two games against the Bengals and Lions’ anemic offenses.

DUD: Giants – They still play DAL, WAS, PHI twice, and CAR in Week 16 – all capable offenses.

COMPLETE SCHEDULE ANALYSIS  (from FFToday.com)

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