GSI Mock Draft: Trends

11. August 2009  - Published by Dan Clasgens

A few trends noticed during the GSI Mock Draft:

--FIRST ROUND DILEMMAS
Adrian Peterson is very much a consensus No. 1 pick. However, after that the difference between the No. 2 running back and No. 10 runner is marginal. This is the year you will be better off drafting later in Round One and getting that earlier pick in Round 2.

--GRAB YOUR WIDEOUTS EARLY
There are roughly about 15 wideouts that are solid weekly line-up options and many of them are safer picks than many RB2’s sitting out there. Expect most of the players to go in Rounds 2 & 3 to be wideouts. There is a huge drop-off in receiver as you work your way down the rankings.

--MIDDLE ROUND RB DEPTH
Conversely, you are seeing many of the rookie running backs and solid veteran runners falling into the mid-rounds of the draft.

--TIGHT ENDS GALORE
Draft to value at tight end. Top guys like Jason Witten and Dallas Clark could go in round five, but there is so much depth you don’t have to grab one early.

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GSI Mock Draft: Rounds 10-12

11. August 2009  - Published by Dan Clasgens

We have finally completed our GSI Mock Draft. Here are the final few rounds:

RECAPS: Round One | Round Two | Round Three | Round Four | Round Five | Rounds 6-7 | Rounds 8-9

ROUND 10
109. BROERING - D/ST BEARS (CHI)
110. SIMON - TE H. Miller (PIT)
111. DINSMORE - WR T. Ginn Jr (MIA)
112. BRYANT - RB L. McCoy (PHI)
113. WETZEL - WR D. Hixon (NYG)
114. SCHMITT - WR J. Galloway (NE)
115. SIMS - WR M. Clayton (BAL)
116. MURDICO - TE J. Carlson (SEA)
117. ANSELMO - RB S. Greene (NYJ)
118. CLASGENS - RB L. McClain (BAL)
119. FISCHER - QB B. Roethlisberger (PIT)
120. HUMBERT - WR S. Smith (NYG)
ROUND 11
121. HUMBERT - D/ST VIKINGS (MIN)
122. FISCHER - RB R. Williams (MIA)
123. CLASGENS - WR C. Chambers (SD)
124. ANSELMO - WR J. Morgan (SF)
125. MURDICO - D/ST TITANS (TEN)
126. SIMS - D/ST EAGLES (PHI)
127. SCHMITT - D/ST JETS (NYJ)
128. WETZEL - QB M. Cassel (KC)
129. BRYANT - QB M. Hasselbeck (SEA)
130. DINSMORE - QB E. Manning (NYG)
131. SIMON - D/ST PACKERS (GB)
132. BROERING - RB K. Faulk (NE)
ROUND 12
133. BROERING - WR D. Henderson (NO)
134. SIMON - QB T. Edwards (BUF)
135. DINSMORE - D/ST PANTHERS (CAR)
136. BRYANT - D/ST CHARGERS (SD)
137. WETZEL - D/ST REDSKINS (WAS)
138. SCHMITT - QB K. Orton (DEN)
139. SIMS - QB T. Thigpen (KC)
140. MURDICO - QB D. Garrard (JCK)
141. ANSELMO - TE K. Boss (NYG)
142. CLASGENS - RB C. Buckhalter (DEN)
143. FISCHER - WR N. Washington (TEN)
144. HUMBERT - RB E. Graham (TB)

MY PICKS: I was hoping to do better than LeRon McClain, but really he is my RB4 and though he won't be featured as much as he was in '08 you can expect to be the goalline back in Baltimore. I could easily see him putting him 8-10 TD's. Chris Chambers is overvalued by most and I am not that crazy about his outlook for the 2009 season. Still with the 123rd pick in the draft you can do much worse for your WR4. Already having Knowshon Moreno in the fold, I took Correll Buckhalter with the draft's third-to-last pick. He will provide nice insurance and could have value here in Josh McDaniels' system.

BEST VALUE PICKS: Domenik Hixon (chance to be Giants #1 WR); John Carlson (further evidence you can wait on a TE); Matt Hasselbeck (best backup taken in these rounds); Kevin Faulk (will be a factor in NE)

MOST LIKELY TO DISAPPOINT: Joey Galloway (too old to be counted on); Ricky Williams (expect to see a decreased role); Tyler Thigpen (drafting a backup as your backup not a smart move)

FINAL TAKE: The draft is over and the teams look pretty good. Rounds 10-12 are when most fill out their rosters with defenses, kickers (not included in this draft) and deep backups. I prefer to take younger players at this point rather than aging veterans. I skewed away from that a bit, but overall that is the best route to take. This is really the only point of your draft to begin to think about handcuffs.

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GSI Mock Draft: Rounds 8-9

6. August 2009  - Published by Dan Clasgens

It is getting to be slim pickings at this point, but don't kid yourself there is still value to be had:

RECAPS: Round One | Round Two | Round Three | Round Four | Round Five | Rounds 6-7

ROUND EIGHT
85. BROERING - WR J. Cotchery (NYJ)
86. SIMON - RB F. Jackson (BUF)
87. DINSMORE - WR D. Hester (CHI)
88. BRYANT - WR S. Breaston (ARI)
89. WETZEL - RB R. Rice (BAL)
90. SCHMITT - RB D. Brown (IND)
91. SIMS - RB J. Jones (SEA)
92. MURDICO - RB D. Sproles (SD)
93. ANSELMO - D/ST STEELERS (PIT)
94. CLASGENS - D/ST RAVENS (BAL)
95. FISCHER - D/ST GIANTS (NYG)
96. HUMBERT - RB L. Washington (NYJ)
ROUND NINE
97. HUMBERT - RB T. Hightower (ARI)
98. FISCHER - WR K. Walter (HOU)
99. CLASGENS - TE D. Keller (NYJ)
100. ANSELMO - TE B. Celek (PHI)
101. MURDICO - WR T. Holt (JCK)
102. SIMS - WR D. Avery (STL)
103. SCHMITT - WR J. Maclin (PHI)
104. WETZEL - RB A. Bradshaw (NYG)
105. BRYANT - WR D. Mason (BAL)
106. DINSMORE - RB R. Mendenhall (PIT)
107. SIMON -  WR M. Crabtree (SF)
108. BROERING - WR C. Henry (CIN)

MY PICKS: I know that many will shy away from defenses, but really it depends on your scoring system to determine how valuable one is to you. In most leagues now, you get points for points allowed and yards allowed, in addtion to turnovers, sacks, and touchdowns. The Ravens' defense is money in the bank on all fronts. Plus, there are so many backups I still have targeted it will work out. Dustin Keller is just another example of how deep the tight end crop is this year. Going after one early is not a bad move, but if you wait you will still find viable starting options.

BEST VALUE PICKS: Fred Jackson (value goes up w/Lynch out); Ray Rice (one of my sleepers); Steve Breaston (worth a look at WR3); Chris Henry (a ton of upside at pick 108)

MOST LIKELY TO DISAPPOINT: Darren Sproles (if LT is healthy he will see numbers drop); Jerricho Cotchery (no Coles/no Favre)

FINAL TAKE: In general some solid picks here once again. The trend of running back depth continues to hold true as many solid RB4 and RB5 options are out there.

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GSI Mock Draft: Rounds 6-7

4. August 2009  - Published by Dan Clasgens

This is the point of the draft where every player has baggage, but also where gems can be found:

RECAPS: Round One | Round Two | Round Three | Round Four | Round Five

ROUND SIX
61. BROERING - TE K. Winslow (TB)
62. SIMON - QB M. Ryan (ATL)
63. DINSMORE - WR A. Bryant (TB)
64. BRYANT - RB C. Wells (ARI)
65. WETZEL - WR E. Royal (DEN)
66. SCHMITT - RB W. Parker (PIT)
67. SIMS - WR B. Edwards (CLE)
68. MURDICO - QB M. Schaub (HOU)
69. ANSELMO - WR A. Gonzalez (IND)
70. CLASGENS - RB K. Moreno (DEN)
71. FISCHER - TE O. Daniels (HOU)
72. HUMBERT - RB D. Ward (TB)

ROUND SEVEN
73. HUMBERT - WR L. Evans (BUF)
74. FISCHER - RB F. Jones (DAL)
75. CLASGENS - WR D. Driver (GB)
76. ANSELMO - WR L. Moore (NO)
77. MURDICO - WR S. Holmes (PIT)
78. SIMS - QB J. Cutler (CHI)
79. SCHMITT - WR L. Coles (CIN)
80. WETZEL - WR H. Ward (PIT)
81. BRYANT - TE C. Cooley (WAS)
82. DINSMORE - TE G. Olsen (CHI)
83. SIMON - WR S. Moss (WAS)
84. BROERING - RB J. Lewis (CLE)

MY PICKS: I added a third running back and a third receiver in Rounds Six and Seven by nabbing Knowshon Moreno and Donald Driver. One of these two guys will be my starting flex option. Moreno has competition in Denver, but I think he's going to have the most immediate impact of the rookie runners. I love him as a RB3, but he may not get going quickly enough to be a lock as a RB2. Driver is not flashy, but he is consistent. With Aaron Rodgers being so highly regarded you have to figure Drive is safe pick here and will provide nice depth.

BEST VALUE PICKS: Matt Ryan (nice pick this late); Anthony Gonzalez (ready to step up w/Harrison gone); Felix Jones (will see increased role in Dallas); Greg Olsen (on the rise).

MOST LIKELY TO DISAPPOINT: Antonio Bryant (QB questions); Willie Parker (declining role); Santana Moss (too inconsistent); Jamal Lewis (tank is empty).

FINAL TAKE: These rounds are the most fun to me. You are still drafting guys that will start regularly in many cases so the margin for error is slim. Typically, I go for younger players with more upside at this point. However, I had to settle for a veteran in Driver after some of the young receivers I was targetting fell off the board.

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GSI Mock Draft: Round Five

2. August 2009  - Published by Dan Clasgens

With the rosters filling up quickly, when you get to Round Five anything can happen. Here's a GSI Mock Draft update:

RECAPS: Round One | Round Two | Round Three | Round Four

ROUND FIVE
49. HUMBERT - TE D. Clark (IND)
50. FISCHER - WR V. Jackson (SD)
51. CLASGENS - WR B. Berrian (MIN)
52. ANSELMO - RB L. White (TEN)
53. MURDICO - RB T. Jones (NYJ)
54. SIMS - WR D. Jackson (PHI)
55. SCHMITT - TE T. Gonzalez (ATL)
56. WETZEL - TE A. Gates (SD)
57. BRYANT - QB T. Romo (DAL)
58. DINSMORE - QB C. Palmer (CIN)
59. SIMON - RB L. Johnson (KC)
60. BROERING - RB D. McFadden (OAK)

POSITION BREAKDOWN: RB (4), TE (2), WR (3), QB (2),

MY PICK: For the first time in the draft I was burned messing around. I opted to snag Reggie Bush in the end of Round Four with the thought that either Vincent Jackson or Dallas Clark would be there this time around.  You must be able to adjust on the fly. I changed directions and went with Bernard Berrian. The Vikings top wideout isn't consistent enough to be considered as a WR1 in fantasy, but he is capable of delivering big time numbers in any given week. His value would have gone up had Brett Favre opted to come back and was healthy enough to the win the job in Minnesota. Still he cracks my top 20 wideouts in my rankings.

BEST VALUE PICK: Carson Palmer is a low-risk high-reward player entering this season. He is coming off a major elbow injury, but looks to be at 100 percent. The Bengals have the weapons at wideout, even with T.J. Houshmandzadeh leaving for Seattle in free agecy, for Palmer to return to being a solid fantasy starter. The key will be whether or not the Bengals' makeshift offense line keep him upright.

MOST LIKELY TO DISAPPOINT: I have ripped Thomas Jones enough earlier on this blog, but at this point I can live with his selection.  Honesttly, there really isn't a player on the board right now that I am not good with in Round Five. Tony Gonzalez is a likely candidate for a slow start though as he moves from Kansas City to Atlanta.

FINAL TAKE: Overall a good round. When you get to this point of the draft you need to fill needs, but you also need to try to forecast the runs. Know what positions that the owners that draft after you and then before you again (with snake draft) need and already have. The round was the most balanced yet, but will set up some different strategies for owners down the stretch.

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GSI Mock Draft: Round Four

31. July 2009  - Published by Dan Clasgens

The annual GSI Mock Draft is rolling right along. Don't miss our takes and explanations and offer your take too...

RECAPS: Round One | Round Two | Round Three

   

ROUND FOUR
37. BROERING - QB D. McNabb (PHI)
38. SIMON - WR B. Marshall (DEN)
39. DINSMORE - RB R. Brown (MIA)
40. BRYANT - WR W. Welker (NE)
41. WETZEL - QB A. Rodgers (GB)
42. SCHMITT - RB C. Benson (CIN)
43. SIMS - TE J. Witten (DAL)
44. MURDICO - WR R. Williams (DAL)
45. ANSELMO - RB K. Smith (DET)
46. CLASGENS - RB R. Bush (NO)
47. FISCHER - RB J. Stewart (CAR)
48. HUMBERT - QB P. Rivers (SD)

POSITION BREAKDOWN: RB (5), QB (3), WR (3), TE (1)

MY PICK: Like many others in the league, the time to get my RB2 came in Round 4. This league is not a PPR league, so Reggie Bush loses some of his luster. However, he is still a nice grab with the 46th overall pick and a steady RB2 option with upside. Injuries have been a problem, but he's worth the risk here. One look at his numbers through the first seven games (two rushing TD's, three receiving TD's, and 660 total yards) last season though so his potential to be a solid starting option.

BEST VALUE PICK: Aaron Rodgers will be valued much higher this season than last and rightfully so after he had 10 multiple-touchdown games in '08. I don't put him in the same ballpark as the top three quarterbacks, but he definitely is nice value 18 picks after Tom Brady went and 19 picks following Peyton Manning.

MOST LIKELY TO DISAPPOINT: Count me as somebody that is not buying into the Roy Williams being an automatic replacement for Terrell Owens in Dallas. Of the three receivers selected within this round, he by far has the best chance to be a bust. He had problems adjusting mid-season in Dallas and suffered a foot injury down the stretch. The potential is there, but at this point I can find somebody that had more than seven touchdown catches over the past two years.

FINAL TAKE: This round was predictable. We saw our first tight end go off the board in Jason Witten (nice pick), five teams go with RB2 and a few quarterbacks and wideouts. In general, waiting on quarterback didn't prove too badly for the three owners that took signal callers here.

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GSI Mock Draft: Round Three

30. July 2009  - Published by Dan Clasgens

Okay, Round Three is where things start to get interesting...

RECAPS: Round One | Round Two

ROUND THREE
25. HUMBERT - WR R. White (ATL)
26. FISCHER - WR M. Colston (NO)
27. CLASGENS - WR S. Smith (CAR)
28. ANSELMO - RB P. Thomas (NO)
29. MURDICO - WR D. Bowe (KC)
30. SIMS - RB R. Grant (GB)
31. SCHMITT - QB K. Warner (ARI)
32. WETZEL - WR T. Owens  (BUF)
33. BRYANT - WR T. Houshmandzadeh (SEA)
34. DINSMORE - RB J. Addai (IND)
35. SIMON - RB M. Lynch (BUF)
36. BROERING - WR C. Ochocinco (CIN)

POSITION BREAKDOWN: WR (7), RB (4), QB (1)

MY PICK: After taking a RB and QB, I had no choice but to wideout. I was hoping to grab one of my top 5 wideouts, but I couldn't pass on the Tier 1 quarterback (Peyton Manning) in Round Two. Still, Steve Smith is nice value here. People forget  when they look at his numbers that he missed two games due to a suspension last season. Smith has only played in all 16 games twice in his career, but the durability wrap is misleading. His numbers were down a bit last year as the Panthers ran early and often. They scored 21 rushing touchdowns over the last eight games. Still, Smith averaged over 5 catches per game and broke the 100-yard mark eight times in 14 tries. Carolina is a run first team, but I expect Smith to find the end zone a few more times in '09. Smith is a low-end WR1 with significant upside.

BEST VALUE PICK: If you read this blog regularly you know I already feel strongly about Pierre Thomas' upside. With that in mind, I peg Joseph Addai as my best value pick of the round. After scoring 15 TD's in '07, last season was a bit rough for the Colts' running back. He started strong by scoring four times in the first four games, but missed four games and parts of two others with injuries after that. The guy was a top 5 pick a year ago and plays in one of the league's best offenses. Getting him 34th overall is great value. The team drafted Donald Brown and he will push for time, but perhaps that will have a good impact on Addai and push him to do better (i.e. Jonathan Stewart's affect on DeAngelo Williams).

MOST LIKELY TO DISAPPOINT: Marshawn Lynch at this point is the worst pick of the draft so far. Not only is he losing the first three games (most fantasy leagues only play 13 weeks) due to a suspension, but he was outperformed most of last season by Fred Jackson. Expect Lynch to still be the featured back upon his return, but Jackson and the newly acquired Dominic Rhodes are going to get their crack at carries. I have at least eight RB's still available rated higher than him on my latest Cheat Sheet. Lynch could prove worthy, but he could have drafted a round or two from now most likely.

FINAL TAKE: Round Three is where fantasy championships start to get formed. It's hard to mess up the top two picks, but the decisions made between Rounds 3-7 are the ones that seperate pretenders from contenders. One thing is clear so far though, running back depth is much better than that at wide receiver this season.

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GSI Mock Draft: Round Two

29. July 2009  - Published by Dan Clasgens

After a solid first round things started to get interesting in Round Two of the GSI Mock Draft...

RECAPS: Round One

ROUND TWO
13. BROERING - WR L. Fitzgerald (ARI)
14. SIMON - WR R. Moss (NE)
15. DINSMORE - WR A. Johnson (HOU)
16. BRYANT - RB S. Slaton (HOU)
17. WETZEL - RB C. Portis (WAS)
18. SCHMITT - WR R. Wayne (IND)
19. SIMS - WR C. Johnson (DET)
20. MURDICO - RB B. Jacobs (NYG)
21. ANSELMO - WR A. Boldin (ARI)
22. CLASGENS - QB P. Manning (IND)
23. FISCHER - QB T. Brady (NE)
24. HUMBERT - WR G. Jennings (GB)

POSITION BREAKDOWN: WR (7), RB (3), QB (2)

MY PICK: There are three quarterbacks that I consider Tier 1 candidates - Drew Brees, Peyton Manning, and Tom Brady. Brees (who was taken 4th overall) went in the opening round and I was a bit surprised to see Manning and Brady both fall to me with the 22nd overall pick. I was anticipating both of them going sooner and turning to my WR1 here, but I will take a franchise quarterback. Ultimately, Brady has more upside than Manning, but Peyton is the "safer" bet in my eyes. His '08 numbers were a bit disappointing for owners, but too many people disregarded his preseason knee surgery that limited him to just three TD passes in the team's first three contests. I'm not buying into the Harrison departing hurts him theory either. Harrison was a non-factor (no TD's or fewer than 50 yards) in 10 games last season and Manning still averaged 230 yards per game and threw 14 TD's in those outings.

BEST VALUE PICK: Some owners will be a bit gun shy to pull the trigger on Tom Brady, but they shouldn't be. The Patriots were confident enough in his recovery from knee surgery to send backup Matt Cassel to Kansas City. If the veteran signal caller even comes close to sniffing 2007 numbers, he will make the owners that passed him over for a wideout. Outside the top three or four receivers, the difference between No. 5 and No. 12 is marginal. The same can't be said at quarterback.

MOST LIKELY TO DISAPPOINT: Once again it's hard to nit pick some of the top 25 players taken in a fantasy draft, but if I had to pick a guy that could disappoint from this round I go with Steve Slaton. Just by looking at my Cheat Sheet you can see that I am not as high on him as Ron Bryant is as I have ranked as the No. 14 running back at this point. Slaton is solid and has the ability to score on any play. He may not carry a huge workload, but the production is there. However, I likely would have went after a receiver here.  It is a long time before Ron gets to pick again. He could have had a stud quarterback or an elite wideout and instead opted for a running back that most websites don't have in the Top 10. There will be more running backs to choose from in Round Three than there will be QB's and WR's.

FINAL TAKE: A solid round by all. As predicited the run on receivers came and came large. Expect Round Two in your league to be the same way.

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GSI Mock Draft: Round One

28. July 2009  - Published by Dan Clasgens

It's that time of the year again. The 6th Annual GetSportsInfo.com Mock Draft kicked off on Monday and the opening round provided some interesting insights...

ROUND ONE
1. HUMBERT - RB A Peterson (MIN)
2. FISCHER - RB M. Turner (ATL)
3. CLASGENS - RB M. Jones-Drew (JCK)
4. ANSELMO - QB D. Brees (NO)
5. MURDICO - RB M. Forte (CHI)
6. SIMS - RB L. Tomlinson (SD)
7. SCHMITT - RB F. Gore (SF)
8. WETZEL - RB D. Williams (CAR)
9. BRYANT - RB S. Jackson (STL)
10. DINSMORE - RB B. Westbrook (PHI)
11. SIMON - RB C. Johnson (TEN)
12. BROERING - RB M. Barber (DAL)

POSITION BREAKDOWNS: RB (11), QB (1)

MY PICK: This is not necessarily the year to pick third. With the difference between the No. 3 running back on my Cheat Sheet and the No. 10 running back in the rankings being so slim, I would have preferred to pick at the bottom of Round One in order to get an early pick in Round Two as the draft order snakes. Picking third I had to with a running back.  Maurice Jones-Drew is the flavor of the off-season for fantasy gurus everywhere. Why wouldn't he be? Fred Taylor has long stood in his way of being an elite fantasy runner. However, Taylor has fled to New England via free agency, leaving MJD is the man in J-Ville! In a limited role he's produced at least 1100 yards per season and at least nine touchdowns per year. With Taylor gone, he will get his chance at being the featured back. It's hard to imagine the 5-foot-7 running back getting more than 20 touches per game very often, but he will make the most of his chances.

BEST VALUE PICK: LaDainian Tomlinson battled a nagging turf toe injury last season and disappointed many owners that spent a top pick on him. With his age, career workload, and Darren Sproles all factors in projecting his stats there's no doubt that the days of 2,000 total yards are over. But LT appears healthy and will definitely be given the ball early and often in San Diego. I expect him to approach 1500 total yards and 15 touchdowns if he stays healthy. That makes him a steal at No. 7. Too many websites have him ranked way too low.

MOST LIKELY TO DISAPPOINT: It's hard to pick a player from this group as being a bust-candidate. In fact, none of them fall under that category in my mind. If I had to pick one that may disappoint though I'll go with Michael Turner. Let me be clear, I love the Falcons' offense and expect a very productive year from Turner. Yet, the team has already said they plan on reducing his workload to ensure that he stays fresh. Plus, the addition of Tony Gonzalez and another year of maturity for the Falcons' passing game leads me to believe fewer touchdown chances for Turner. Throw in a tougher slate of games this year and it's hard to imagine Turner eclipsing 2008's numbers.

FINAL TAKE: Overall, it was solid drafting for the opening round. Drew Brees was a bit of a surprise with the fourth overall selection, but at least you know you will get consistency and that is what wins. Getting a Tier 1 quarterback is HUGE this season and Anselmo may not have gotten one in the second round. I was a bit surprised to see Larry Fitzgerald go undrafted, but expect a big run on wideouts in Round Two.

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