I was on with Kay Adams and Ray Flowers Sunday night on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio to talk about my team in the SXM Experts League. My team is struggling a bit out of the gate, but baseball season is a marathon not a sprint. Here are some early notes on my team two weeks in:

Matt Kemp
--The most life Kemp has shown this season so far came in the Carlos Quentin/Zack Greinke brawl. I drafted him hoping for 30HR/20 SB potential and through the season’s first two weeks he hasn’t hit a homerun and has yet to steal a base.

Jason Heyward
--He’s off to a horrendous start which included a seven-game hitless streak (0 for 21 slump). His 1-for-4 effort today has his average finally over a hundred at .103. I have to remember he’s only 23, but the frustrating part is that Heyward is not racking up any stats as the Braves light up the scoreboard.

Brett Lawrie
--Started a Single A rehab (rib cage) on Sunday at 2B. He started his career there and with Jose Reyes on the shelf for three months the Blue Jays may slide Jose Bautista in to third base and put Maicer Iztruis and shortstop.

Jered Weaver
--It is unfortunate that Weaver is out for 4-6 weeks and my rotation and certainly use him. However, the fact the injury is his non-throwing arm I am confident he will still be a big contributor.

Adam Wainwright
--Can’t complain about what the Cards’ ace is giving me (2-1, 24 K/22 IP, 2.05 ERA, 1.00 WHIP). I am going to need more of the same from him if I am going to contend.

Jarrod Parker
--He’s followed up a terrible spring with atrocious start to the 2013 season with three disappointing starts. He was pulled after 3.1 innings in Sunday’s route by the Tigers. He entered Sunday with a 6.48 ERA and 2.40 WHIP before Sunday’s debacle and those numbers are only rising.

Homer Bailey
--Bailey is a guy that I’ve touted as a top 35 fantasy SP and solid No. 3 pitcher coming into the season and despite a couple bad innings last time out against St. Louis I am still convinced good things are ahead. Before getting rocked in the 5th and 6th inning versus Bailey had a 19 inning scoreless streak going. Bailey is going to have some bad days at the office, that’s why I say he’s a No. 3 at best. Staying healthy will be a key factor.

Hyun-Jin Ryu
--My 22nd Round pick is off to a good start with a 2-0 record with a 2.89 ERA, 1.18 WHIP and 20 K’s in 18.2 innings.

Tony Cingrani
--The Reds put him on a 45-pitch pitch count on Sunday and pulled after two innings, striking out five of the six batters he’s faced giving him 26 strikeouts without allowing a run over his 14 1/3 Triple-A innings this season. I picked up last week in many leagues and grabbed him quickly in every other one that I'm in as soon as Cueto left the game Saturday night.
 
Bullpen Woes
--Huston Street, Cassey Janssen, Mitchell Boggs have combined for six saves, I already dumped Carlos Marmol, who I absolutely dreaded drafting to begin with.

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Undervalued - SP Johnny Cueto: The Reds’ ace has been as consistent as they come over the past two seasons posting a 2.58 ERA over 57 starts. He set career highs with 19 wins and 170 strikeouts in 2012 while yielding a 2.78 ERA and 1.17 WHIP. The right oblique strain that knocked him out of the playoffs last fall is behind him. Cueto is a borderline elite fantasy option that has all the tools to be a top 15 fantasy starter but the latest ADP numbers have him outside of the top 20 starters off the board.

Overvalued - RP Jonathan Broxton: Broxton was resigned with the Reds this offseason and appears to be locked in as the team’s closer with Aroldis Chapman moving to the rotation. The right hander was acquired in a Trade Deadline deal from Kansas City and produced modest stats for Cincinnati down the stretch. While he’s likely to land the job out of camp, Broxton must perform to keep it. He’s lost 3 MPH off his fastball and no longer delivers the strikeouts he used to, relying on more groundballs (.42 to .53 rate in 2012).  The righty is not a bad late-round flyer for cheap saves, but there are players in the same tier that offer more upside.

Sleeper - SP Homer Bailey:  After a ton of hype, Bailey finally managed to stay healthy in 2012 as he started a career-high 33 games while setting personal best marks with 3.68 ERA and 208 innings pitched. He was 8-4 with a 3.12 ERA and a 107/25 K/BB ratio in 118 1/3 innings over the final three months of last season, a run that included a late September no-hitter against the Pirates. His one-hit, 10-K performance in a no decision game against the Giants in the playoffs was masterful. If Bailey can figure out a way to have more success at home (.526 SLG against at GABP) he could prove to be a valuable fantasy commodity.

Bust - LF Ryan Ludwick: The move to Great American Ballpark breathed life back into Ludwick’s fantasy value. In his first season as a Red the veteran boasted a 275/.346/.531 stat line. However, he’s been very streaky in recent years and really struggled in April hitting .198 and .190 the last two years. Putting up last year’s numbers is his ceiling though.  His age (35) and discipline at the plate are concerns. He’s not a bad source of cheap, late power numbers in an improved Reds lineup, but you will not want to count on him as one of your primary outfield options.

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Some good stuff from Lance McAlister, ESPN 1530...

SP/Innings--'12--- on pace--'11 IN--career high
Cueto         161.2----227.2---170.1----185.2 ('10)
Arroyo        143.2----201.2---199------240.2 ('06)
Leake        131.2----185.2---175------175   ('11)
Bailey        141.1-----199.1---162-----203   ('09)      
Latos         141.2----199.2---194.1----194.1 ('11)   

On pace to throw more innings that last year
Cueto: +57.1
Arroyo +2.2
Leake +10.2
Bailey +37.1
Latos +5.1

On pace to top career high in innings
Cueto +42
Leake +10.2
Latos +5.1

*All 5 starting pitchers are on pace to throw at least 180 innings

*The last time the Reds had 5 starting pitchers toss at least 180 innings was 1951:
Ken Raffensberger 248.2
Ewell Blackwell 232.2
Howie Fox 228
Willie Ramsdell 196
Herm Wehmeier 184.2

MLB cincinnati reds, johnny cueto, bronson arroyo, mike leake, homer bailey, mat latos

Homer Bailey’s arrival to the big leagues was one of the most anticipated debuts in recent Reds history. However, since coming into the league into 2007 inconsistency has plagued the ultra-talented right hander. Overall for his career he’s 30-28 with a 4.78 ERA with a 1.457 WHIP and a 6.87 K/per nine inning rate.

There have flashes of brilliance as well as horrific blowups. The team invested highly in Bailey when they selected him with the 7^th overall pick in MLB’s 2004 Amateur Draft.

Consider that two pitchers from this draft class are Justin Verlander (2^nd overall by DET) and Jered Weaver (12^th overall by LAA). Both have been amazing. Verlander along with another 2004 draftee, Phillip Humber (3^rd overall by NYM), have throw no-hitters this season. Meanwhile, Bailey has mustered just two complete games in parts of five seasons with the Reds.

This season has been a microcosm of Bailey’s career. He’s 5-5 with a 4.20 ERA and 10 of his 14 starts have been quality starts. Yet after taking the loss in Wednesday's game versus the Brewers over his past five outings he’s 1-3 with a 6.00 ERA with 35 hits, 18 ER, 9 BB, 16 K, and 5 HR through 27 innings.

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The battle for the Reds fifth and final spot in the rotation appears to be over, or at least it should be.

Aroldis Chapman pitched five more strong innings on Thursday, yielding just two runs and seven hits while walking none and striking out six batters.

His spring training numbers have been impressive:
17 IP, 17 H, 2 BB, 18 K, 4 ER, 2.12 ERA

Yet Reds’ manager Dusty Baker is still not ready to commit to him being back in the team’s rotation.

"I don't know, man," Baked told the team’s website. "We haven't come up with [the answer] yet. Honestly, we have not decided yet. There are more people involved here than just Chapman."

In order to put Chapman in the rotation the team must also answer what are they going to do with Homer Bailey, who is out of options, and how it is going to fill voids in the bullpen left by the season-ending injury to Ryan Madson and with Nick Massett starting the year on the 15-day disabled list.

Bailey has posted a 7.98 ERA with seven walks and six strikeouts in his five big league starts this spring. However, he worked six scoreless innings with four hits, one walk and five strikeouts against a Triple-A team on Thursday.  The righty has never worked out of the bullpen as a Red and it remains unclear how he’d perform in that role.

Another possibility is to trade Bailey for some bullpen help. Though after trading Travis Wood to the Cubs this offseason and Edinson Volquez to the Padres, the team’s depth of major-league ready starters isn’t as deep as it used to be.

Still, it’s time to give Chapman his crack. He’s earned it. The Cuban Missle has been a starter his entire life and the team paid him big bucks based off that. However, they rushed him to the majors during their 2010 run at the division title and put him in the bullpen. After a disappointing 2011 campaign the team committed this offseason to work him back as a starter. Now, before the season even begins they are ready to jump ship.  He can make a much bigger impact on this team as a starter.

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It became apparent that Travis Wood was running out of time to turn things around with Homer Bailey nearing a return from the disabled list.  The clock hit zero on Wednesday as the Reds optioned Wood to Triple A Louisville and recalled Sam Lecure, who was on a rehab assignment with the Bats.

Wood is 5-5 on the season with a 5.11 ERA and 1.50 WHIP over 93.1 innings in 16 starts. Despite only suffering only two losses over his last 10 starts, the left-hander has struggled with control.

FANTASY TAKE: Wood is no longer a viable in year-to-year, redraft mixed leagues. However, he could still be worth holding onto in both NL-only and dynasty formats. Expect his stint in the minors to be temporary, assuming he can get things straightened out.  

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Coming into this season most thought the Cincinnati Reds would have one of the strongest starting pitching rotations in the National League, if not in all of baseball. However, before the season even began both Johnny Cueto and Homer Bailey hit the disabled list. Both came back around the same time but Bailey has hit the DL once again and the rotation has been a revolving door with guys coming up from the minors to fill in gaps. Cueto, on the other hand, has been the shining light in the rotation as we enter the early part of June. He's silently been taking the mound and pumping out quality start after quality start.

Since coming off the DL on May 8th, Cueto has had 6 starts, all but one of them has been a quality outing. His record stands at 2-2 but could easily be 6-0 if either the offense hadn't failed him, or the bullpen hadn't given away games. He hasn't given up more than three runs in any game which has him leading the team with an ERA of 2.27, one of the best in the league. In 39.2 innings pitched so far this season he's only given up three home runs and has struck out 23.

In Cueto's outing yesterday against the Los Angeles Dodgers, he pitched a solid seven innings, giving up two runs on five hits while striking out three. The Reds offense built a nice 7-2 lead for him only to see the bullpen blow it by giving up five runs in the eighth inning. What should have been a sure win for Cueto turned into an extra innings loss for the Redlegs. The bullpen was thought to be one of the strongest in baseball coming into this season but time and time again have blown games behind solid starting pitching. Cueto did what he had to do yesterday to get his team the win. He was taken out of the game after just 88 pitches. Hindsight is 20/20. With a 7-2 lead going into the eighth inning you would think, being Dusty Baker, that you could trust your bullpen to come in and close out the game. Unfortunately for Cueto, and ultimately the team as a whole, that was not the case yesterday.

In a season that has seen it share of ups and downs already for the Reds, especially when it comes to the pitching, the one constant has been Cueto so far. Travis Wood, Bronson Arroyo and Edinson Volquez (who was sent down to the minors to fix himself and set to come back tomorrow night possibly) have been inconsistent all season, to say the least. Cueto has stepped up and at this point has become the ace of this pitching staff. Coming into the season the thought was, if he could stay under control and stay focused, he could be one of the best starters in the rotation, if not in the league. He has, and he is. If the Reds are going to get back to the playoffs this year they are going to need Cueto to continue to do what he's doing. More importantly, they're going to need some of what he's been doing to rub off on the rest of the rotation.

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The Cincinnati Reds dropped their eighth game in nine tries, losing their third straight series.

After back-to-back outings on Sunday and Monday where their starter failed to make it out of the third inning and the 19-inning marathon on Wednesday night, the last thing the Reds needed on Thursday was to go to the bullpen early. However, that is exactly what manager Dusty Baker had to after right hander Homer Bailey left the game due to what was called “shoulder spasms”. The injury occurred when Bailey was at the plate during the fourth inning.

It is the same shoulder that caused the right hander to miss the first month of the season. It remains unclear whether or not it is related. Bailey will fly back to Cincinnati for further examination as the rest of the team heads to Atlanta.

“He said he just felt some discomfort on the swing when he was hitting,” Baker told reporters. “You could tell his velocity went down quite a bit after that.”

Bronson Arroyo left the road trip earlier in the week to have his back examined. Bailey has been the Reds’ best starter since his return, posting a 3-0 record and 3.00 ERA over five starts.

The is expected to call up Mike Leake, who was sent to Louisville after being ineffective earlier this month, to start Friday night’s opening game in Atlanta.  He replaces Edinson Volquez, who was also sent down to the minors in attempt to get things straightened out.

The rotation, considered to be a strength at the beginning of the season, has limited the Reds due to injuries and poor performance. As a result the team now sits just one game over .500 and has gone 21-25 since starting the year out with five straight wins.

In an effort to rest the bullpen the Reds have turned to Carlos Fisher (95 pitches) and Daryl Thompson (79 pitches) to eat up innings in emergency call-up relief assignments. The team lost both of those games.

MLB cincinnati reds, homer bailey, bronson arroyo, carlos fisher, mike leake, edinson volquez, daryl thompson

The Reds welcomed starter Johnny Cueto back to the rotation on Sunday at Wrigley Field and the right-hander was nothing short of sensational in his first time out this season.

Cueto struggled through four rehab starts (0-2, 6.28 ERA) in attempt to recover from right biceps and triceps irritation, but showed no signs of problems against the Cubs. He went six plus innings, allowing five hits while holding Chicago scoreless.

It comes on the heels of Homer Bailey’s stellar debut in Thursday’s win over the Astros in which he only allowed one run in over six innings of work while striking out seven.

"That's the boost we were looking for," Reds manager Dusty Baker told reporters. "That was an outstanding performance by Johnny and Homer. That's 40 percent of your starting staff, so that's big."

Given the rotation’s struggle, particularly in the early inning of games, it is huge for the Reds to keep opponents off the scoreboard. Now if they can only get the offense going.

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Despite a solid 6-3 start to the season the Reds have a few areas of concern surrounding the team early on with its starting rotation.

While starters Johnny Cueto and Homer Bailey continue to work towards a return from the DL by month’s end, the current staff is not doing a great job of eating up innings.

That has put an early tax on the team’s bullpen and it showed this weekend as the team dropped two of three to the Diamondbacks in Arizona with bullpen proving ineffective.

Only twice has a Reds’ starter gone seven innings through nine games:

3/31 MIL - Edinson Volquez (6.0 innings)
4/2 MIL - Travis Wood (7.0 IP)
4/3 MIL - Bronson Arroyo (7.0 IP)
4/5 HOU - Mike Leake (6.0 IP)
4/6 HOU - Volquez (5.0 IP)
4/7 HOU - Sam Lecure (5.0 IP)
4/8 @ARI - Wood (5.0 IP)
4/9 @ARI - Arroyo (6.0 IP)
4/10 @ARI - Leake (4.2 IP)

It is a bit early to get too worried, but if the trend continues look for some worn out arms in the bullpen sooner rather than later.

COMPLETE PITCHING STATS (CBSSports.com)

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