Here’s a list of players I just can’t see myself drafting in 2012 and why:

Peyton Manning (DEN) – Manning certainly has some potential and may be a surprise here on the list. He’s trying to come back from injury, but the greater concerns to me are his transition to a new team and his tough slate (including cold weather games). He’s definitely a QB1 I just think with all the hype surrounding him he’ll go earlier in drafts than I will be willing to invest.

Frank Gore (SF) – His role is going to decline this year, but the question is how much? With so many backs on the depth chart with some ability the touches are simply not going to be there. Throw in his subpar numbers a year ago (no 100-yard games over last 8 and 8 total TD’s on season) and I hope to do better for my RB2.

Jahvid Best (DET) – There’s no questioning his ability to make plays, but the concussion problems are the icing on the cake for his growing list of durability concerns. He has a current ADP of 80.42 as the 29th overall RB off the board. I favor some other names that surround him on the list such as Mark Ingram, Ben Tate, Willis McGahee and Peyton Hillis.

James Starks (GB) – Starks teased owners last year with the fast start and the promise of being the No. 1 RB in the Packers’ high-octane attack. Yet even with Ryan Grant no longer in the picture, there’s little to be excited about with Starks. You’re better off waiting around and taking a late stab at Alex Green, who could supplant Starks if his struggles continue.

Randy Moss (SF) – After not playing last season, Moss’ return to the league has been highly touted.  I am having a tough time envisioning him suddenly being fantasy relevant, something he hasn’t been since 2009. Alex Smith is not going to light up the world and consistency is going to be too tough to come by for the veteran.

Chad Johnson (MIA) – I am pretty sure I’ve got his name right. Ochocinco died in New England, where he struggled to learn the playbook. Winning a starting job in Miami might be in reach, but that doesn’t necessarily translate into fantasy success. At 34, Johnson no longer has the physical advantage he possessed a few years ago.

Kenny Britt (TEN) – Injuries, suspensions, and stupidity. Those are not great combinations for a player on your fantasy roster. Britt has all the talent in the world, but there are simply too many hurdles that will need to be cleared for him to be anything more than a roster stash in redraft leagues.

Jacksonville Jaguars – With Maurice Jones-Drew’s holdout going nowhere, even he’s not appealing to me. Throw in a ridiculous workload the past two seasons and a decline should be expected. The rest of the team is terrible and though there are talented players there, I just don’t want have to count on this offense period.

Kicker & Defense/ST – OK I guess my league rules require me to draft a kicker and a Team Defense/ST. However, I will not even think about either until the LAST TWO ROUNDS.  Do not waste a pick any earlier.

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INSIDE THE NUMBERS
For the first time in his brief NFL career Lions’ QB Mathew Stafford played in all 16 games in 2011. That coupled with Detroit’s wide-open attack led to some monster numbers. He finished the season with 5,038 yards and 41 touchdowns through the air. The Lions had a league-high 666 pass attempts a year ago and lined up in the shotgun on 68 percent of their plays. With a great line and stellar weapons surrounding him, Stafford should finish as a top five fantasy option at the position if he can stay healthy again.

SCHEDULE
Playing against the NFC North foes six times should lead to plenty of shootouts and big offensive numbers.  Detroit gets the NFC West and AFC South as its cross-divisional opponents in 2012. The Lions six teams that finished in the top half of teams in 2011 in terms of fantasy points allowed to running backs. You have to like their fantasy playoff schedule – at Green Bay, at Arizona and home to Atlanta on a Saturday prime time affair.

STUD
Calvin Johnson is unanimously the No. 1 fantasy wide receiver entering the 2012 season after pulling in 96 balls for 1,681 yards and 16 TD’s. He is a big-play guy that had a league-high 32 catches of 20-plus yards. Over his past 29 games (including playoffs) Megatron has 80 yards and/or a TD 24 times in 29 contests. The team has gotten better and deeper in the offseason which suggests these trends will continue. The only bad thing surrounding Johnson is that he is on the cover for Madden 2013, which is widely considered sports’ biggest jinx.

DUD
In a PPR format tight end Brandon Pettigrew has pulled his weight, averaging 77 receptions over the past two seasons. While there’s no doubt he’s a top 10 name at the position, Pettigrew’s upside appears to be limited. He’s only managed to score 11 times through three years never going up the five-touchdown mark. In addition, his 9.6 yards per catch prevents him posting huge yardage numbers that some of the top producing tight ends have turned out in recent action. As long as you don’t overpay you won’t be disappointed.

SLEEPER
The speedy Titus Young is full of potential and with an ADP of 107.89 can provide great value for owners. Young is the deep threat in the Lions’ explosive offense, playing on 64 percent of the team’s snaps. He caught 48 balls for 607 yards and six touchdowns as a rookie and there are plenty of reasons to suggest a slight increase those numbers in 2012. He should be viewed as a solid WR4 that could emerge as a nice flex option more weeks than not.

NEW ADDITION
Detroit took wide receiver Ryan Broyles out of Oklahoma with the 54th overall pick in April’s draft. He had first-round talent, but a late-season ACL injury allowed him to fall. The team removed him from the PUP list on the outset of preseason action and it appears he’ll be ready to be in the mix in Week 1 for the Lions. He is going to push 31-year old Nate Burleson for playing time right away and could end up being 90-catch guy in the offense sooner rather than later.

POSITION BATTLE
The Lions’ backfield is a head scratcher for fantasy owners entering drafts and auctions. The explosive Jahvid Best is a major weapon and a perfect fit in this scheme. However, with multiple concussions he hasn’t been able to stay on the field and a huge risk. Mikel Leshoure’s rookie season ended before it started with an ACL injury. He has worked his way back from the injury, but now he has to deal with a two-game suspension for his off-the-field problems. Kevin Smith shined for a few weeks and is a sneaky add late as he could easily get his fair shake running the football again for the Lions in 2012.

BENCH BUILDER
For owners that go with Stafford in deeper formats where roster space is abundant handcuffing backup quarterback Shaun Hill is advised. Stafford made it through 2011 without missing time, but history suggests that is the exception rather than the norm. If Hill takes over his familiarity with the system and the talent surrounding him should lead to nice numbers.

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QB Game Ball - Matt Schaub, Houston - 38/52, 497 yards, 3 TD, 1 Int

Last week the Texans won a big game with a monster running performance from Arian Foster. This Sunday it was Schaub and his big wide receivers who dominated. Andre Johnson grabbed 12 balls for 158 yards and a score. Kevin Walter had 11 catches for 144 yards and a TD. It may still be early in the season but the Texans are for real and Schaub is a stub QB.

QB Honorable Mention - Shaun Hill, Detroit - 25/45, 335 yards, 2 TD, 2 Int (he's not their QB of the future but may put up some nice numbers for the next few weeks.)

RB Game Ball - Jahvid Best, Detroit - 17 carries, 78 yards, 2 TD, 9 catches, 154 yards, 1 TD

After totaling just 36 yards of offense last week, the rookie Best had a monster game against the Eagles on Sunday. He currently leads the league with five touchdowns and should continue to score plenty as the Lions look to have a pretty strong offense. Of course, a defense might help them win a game but that won't matter to Best who has the early edge for the top rookie of 2010.

RB Honorable Mention - Jason Snelling, Atlanta - 24 carries, 129 yards, 2 TD, 5 catches, 57 yards, 1 TD (Turner owners may want this guy on their bench.)

WR Game Ball - Miles Austin, Dallas - 10 catches, 142 yards

Right now the only thing that seems to be going right for the Cowboys is their wide receiver Austin. He has 10 catches in each of the first two games with a total of 288 yards. Meanwhile, rookie Dez Bryant has just 10 catches in two games, Jason Witten has eight and Roy Williams has seven. Austin is clearly the guy Tony Romo is looking for. That may change for the Cowboys to win a game but Austin should continue to produce nice numbers.

WR Honorable Mention - Johnson/Walter, Houston - 23 catches, 302 yards, 2 TD (a serious 1-2 punch for the Texans.)

The Game Used Sock Award - Joe Flacco, QB, Baltimore - 17/39, 145 yards, 1 TD, 4 Int

So far this season Flacco has yet to match his incredible numbers from 2009. Last week against the Jets he put up 248 yards with no TDs and one interception. Sunday against the Bengals he struggled mightily. The Ravens have given his some solid weapons in Anquan Boldin and T.J. Houshmanzadeh and they still have a good running game. And, of course, a stellar defense. But sometimes the QB needs to step up and maybe Flacco is not the guy they were hoping he would be. I suppose it doesn't help that he has to wear a couple of nasty, beat-up, game worn socks.

Stinky Sock Honorable Mention - Derek Anderson, QB, Arizona - 17/31, 161 yards, 2 Int (the Cardinals could have gotten that production from Matt Leinart.)

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The bowl games finally start this weekend. Fellow GetSportsInfo.com writer, Jeremy Fischer, and myself have put together our picks including how confident we are in them. In case you've never done a pick 'em game like this before, here's how it works. In addition to picking who you think will win the game, you assign a number to that pick as to how confident you think that pick is going to be right. There are 34 bowl games this year (way too many in most people's opinion, but that's beside the point), so the max number of confidence points you can give to one game is, yep, you guessed it, 34. The game you are least confident in you assign one point too, and fill in everything in between.

A lot of office pools are done like this and make it much more challenging than simply picking a winner for each game. As J-Fish states when it comes to doing a pick 'em game like this, "I have seen many strategies and I prefer the one that calls for using the higher confidence points on the bigger BCS games." He goes on to give his reasons as to why.

"Right or wrong, the larger conference teams get more coverage. The more information that is out there, the better informed pick you can make. The more informed you are, the more confident you'll be about a particular selection." Makes sense right? So picking the BCS bowl games really isn't as difficult as picking some of the more obscure games like the R+L Carriers New Orleans Bowl between Southern Mississippi and Troy that provide more difficulty in not only picking who will win, but deciding how confident you are in that pick.

J-Fish goes on to say, "Unless you fancy yourself as the next Jimmy the Greek, don't over analyze. The amount of games will definitely lead to paralysis-by-analysis." In my opinion, when it comes to picking some of the lower level bowl games, its almost more of a gut feeling when making that selection than anything else.

With all that said, let's get to the picks. What you'll find below is the bowl schedule starting with the first game on the docket all the way to the National Championship game on January 8th. With each pick you'll see both J-Fish's pick as well as my own with a little bit of analysis and how many confidence points (#) we have assigned to the pick we've made. Let's get to it with a look at the BCS games.

January 1st
ROSE - Penn State vs. USC
JFISH: USC (34) - Too much defense.
DICO: USC (32) - Too much USC! PSU hasn't seen anything like the Trojans this year. Ask OSU how things worked out for them. Plus this is a "home game" for the Trojans.

FEDEX ORANGE - Cincinnati vs. Virginia Tech
JFISH: Cincinnati (22) - 1st BCS bowl berth will drive the Bearcats.
DICO: Cincinnati (10) - Special teams could be the difference in this game. Mardy Gilyard for the Bearcats is one of the best in the country in the return game. A chance to finish the season in the Top 10 will push the Bearcats to a win.

January 2nd
ALLSTATE SUGAR - Utah vs. Alabama
JFISH: Alabama (32) - Utah hasn't faced a defense like this.
DICO: Alabama (33) - See JFISH's comments...the Utes will have a hard time stopping the 'Bama offense as well.

January 5th
TOSTITOS FIESTA - Ohio State vs. Texas
JFISH: Texas (33) - Too much speed on defense, and the Horns will be playing angry because of the whole BIG XII, BCS screw job.
DICO: Texas (31) - QB Colt McCoy will be too much even for a good Buckeyes' defense. Terrelle Pryor will see what team speed on defense is all about against the Longhorns.

January 8th
FEDEX BCS NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIP - Florida vs. Oklahoma
JFISH: Florida (26) - Tebow/Harvin will find a way.
DICO: Oklahoma (22) - Bradford leads the most potent offense in the country. Even with the loss of DeMarco Murray at RB, the Sooners won't miss a beat. Expect a high scoring affair.

COMPLETE PICKS (ALL 34 GAMES) 

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