The rosters have been announced for the 83nd MLB All-Star Game...

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Cincinnati Reds right fielder Jay Bruce was named the NL Player of the Week on Monday, after a huge week that included him hitting homeruns in four straight games. He's off to a great start to this season after working hard in the offseason.

APRIL 2012
.297 BA, 7 HR, 17 RBI, .954 OPS
On pace for: 52 HR, 125 RBI, 37 doubles, 103 runs, 22 SB

2011 STATS
.256 BA, 32 HR, 97 RBI
May: .342, 12 HR, 33 RBI in 27 starts
Rest year: .236, 20 HR, 64 RBI in 124 starts
38% HR came in May
34% RBI came in May
 
CAREER MONTH-BY-MONTH SPLITS
(Entering season)
April: .251/.784
May: .292/.953
June: .235/.692
July: .227/.632
August: .260/.860
Sept: .277/.928

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TOP TEN
1. Ryan Braun (MLW)
2. Matt Kemp (LA)
3. Jose Bautista (TOR)
4. Carlos Gonzalez (COL)
5. Curtis Granderson (NYY)
6. Jacoby Ellsbury (BOS)
7. Justin Upton (ARZ)
8. Matt Holliday (STL)
9. Andrew McCutchen (PIT)
10. Josh Hamilton (TEX)

UP CLOSE
Jay Bruce (CIN) - His averaged dropped 25 points in 2011 as he finished with a .256 mark. However, his career-high 32 HR and 97 RBI were welcomed by fantasy owners. Bruce should be drafted as a top 20 outfielder and possesses great upside at 24 years of age.

BREAKOUT AHEAD
Desmond Jennings (TB) - After getting a call up in July last season, Jennings quickly made an impact for the Rays and fantasy owners alike. He managed to collect 10 home runs, 25 RBI, 20 stolen bases and 44 runs scored in just 63 games. With a full season ahead the youngster could easily top the 100-run plateau while swiping 40-plus bags.

BUST CANDIDATE
Melky Cabrera (SF) - After being a journeyman most of his career, Cabrera posted career numbers in Kansas City last season. The Royals responded by selling high and dealing him to the Giants. While he produced as a top 50 fantasy performer last year in mixed formats, he'll likely revert back to something closer of the player we watched the previous five seasons.

FUTURE STAR
Bryce Harper (WAS) - The 19-year old phenom is a five-tool player with huge upside, but he's a long shot to make the Opening Day roster. The top-rated prospect in the game in a fantasy commodity though in keeper leagues and owners should watch his performance this spring in year-to-year formats.

FANTASY 101
Knowing your roster requirements is a must, but in most leagues a roster will consist of at least five outfielders. It is important to get statistical balance in the catagory. While there are some big names atop the position's rankings, plenty of value can be had late. Using tiers to predetermine players' values is more important at this position than any other.

COMPLETE RANKINGS | LATEST ADP

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Reds' OF Jay Bruce is one of a handful of players featured in Kate Upton in MLB2K12 ad...

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The rosters have been announced for the 82nd MLB All-Star Game...

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Joey Votto BA
Over/Under .314

Joey Votto Total HR's
Over/Under 33.5

Joey Votto Total RBI's
Over/Under 107

Brandon Phillips Total RBI's
Over/Under 70.5

Scott Rolen Total HR's
Over/Under 17.5

Jay Bruce Total HR's
Over/Under 29

Johnny Gomes Total RBI's
Over/Under 67.5

Edinson Volquez Total Wins
Over/Under 14

Johnny Cueto Total Wins
Over/Under 13

Bronson Arroyo Total Wins
Over/Under 15

Total Saves Francisco Cordero
Over/Under 36


NL CENTRAL (regular season wins)
Chicago Cubs - Over/Under 81 ½

Cincinnati Reds - Over/Under 85

Houston Astros - Over/Under 71 ½

Milwaukee Brewers - Over/Under 85 ½

Pittsburgh Pirates - Over / Under 67 ½

St. Louis Cardinals - Over/Under 83 ½

(*odds from BoDog.com)

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With the Cincinnati Reds signing 1B and reigning MVP Joey Votto to a three- year, $38 million deal Sunday, the Reds' overall offseason work now looks adequate.  Barely.  The Reds have largely remained inactive and unproductive this offseason.  They have failed to add a leadoff hitter, improve an average- at best- bench, and still do not have a hammer to go at the top of the rotation.  Here is a breakdown of their significant moves and a grade for each...

EXTENTIONS
1.  Jay Bruce signed to a six- year, $51 million contract with a $13 million option for 2017:  this was the Reds' best offseason move by far.  They locked up their next  superstar for two or three years beyond his arbitration years and probably saved money in the process.  Grade A+

2.  Votto's three- year, $38 million deal:  though there are many who question the length of deal, Votto was probably standing firm on just three years.  With that parameter to work with, the Reds figured that in return for giving him his free agency in three years, he could give them a discount on his salary over those three years.  Votto would have probably earned $8 million in arbitration this year so that means he is getting $30 million total in 2012 and 2013.  This is less than the $34 million that Ryan Howard earned in years five and six of his career and Votto is much better than Howard.  Grade:  A

FREE AGENT ADDITIONS
1.  Dontrelle Willis, LHP:  since he was signed to a minor league deal, Willis is really not much of a risk.  If he is effective as a left handed reliever in Triple- A, the Reds did very well here.  The key here is letting Willis prove himself at Triple- A and NOT in Cincinnati where he could really hurt if ineffective.  Grade:  B

2.  Jeremy Hermida, OF: Hermida is a virtual lock for the Opening Day roster because he is a left handed hitter.  He and Fred Lewis will probably be the only left handed hitters on the bench.  The problem is Hermida, once considered the Marlins' top prospect, has struggled mightily lately in the Majors.  In 222 at bats with Oakland (his fourth organization in the last 17 months- never a good sign) last year, Hermida hit .216/ .268/ .351 with a .619 OPS.  The good news is that this guy was batting third for the Marlins just three seasons ago and he is only 26 years old.  Maybe he's a late bloomer.  His talent says that he is worth a shot.  Grade:  C-

3.  Resigning Miguel Cairo to a two- year, $2 million contract:  Cairo had one of his best years in the Majors last year at the ripe age of 36.  He played every infield position and posted a .290/ .353/ .410 stat line in 200 at bats while doing so.  He was finally valuable again- the first time since 2004 when he was with the Yankees.  So what are the odds that he is valuable again for a second time since 2004 in his age- 37 year?  Virtually none.  Odds are that he will regress back to his normally awful .250/ .300/ .340 averages that he posted between 2005 and 2010.  And remember, he is signed for two years.  Grade: F

4.  Resigning Ramon Hernandez to one- year $3 million contract:  thank goodness it was only a one- year contract.  Hernandez's clock is about to strike midnight because catchers' clocks run a lot faster than everyone else's and he is already 34.  In fact, his clock may explode this year.  Due to ineffectiveness or injury, top prospect Devin Mesoraco may be in Cincinnati to replace Hernandez by July.  Grade:  C

5.  Edgar Renteria signs a one- year, $2.1 million contract:  Before his hot three weeks at the tail end of the 2010 playoffs, Renteria was talking about retirement.  He had been benched in San Francisco for his mediocre .276/ .332/ .374 offensive output as well as his lack of range at shortstop.  Then, the Giants' Kung Fu Panda proceeded to eat his way out of starting slots at third AND first base, and Renteria got another shot in late September.  Being a playoff or World Series MVP only means that the player was hot for a few games- what did he do the rest of the season?  In Renteria's case, it was hurt his team.  This is an awful signing.  Renteria's numbers the previous two years mirror 2010 (2009:  .250/ .307/ .328; 2008: .270/ .317/ .382) so he is clearly on a steady downhill spiral.  Is there any positive to this signing?  There are two; the contract is for only one year and this is not nearly as bad a signing as Orlando Cabrera was last year because Renteria is not slated to bat 500 times.  Grade:  F

6.  Fred Lewis signs a one- year, $900,000 contract:  Lewis is a good backup outfielder.  He can play all three outfield positions and he will be an average hitter at best... if he was a catcher.  Playing an outfield spot and hitting .262/ .332/ .414 in 2010 in what is considered a career year for Lewis is not impressive.  On a better note, Lewis does have a career line of .280/ .354/ .442 against right handed pitchers so a platoon in left field with Johnny Gomes is not a bad move, but its still league average production at best.  Grade D+

LOST FREE AGENTS
1.  The only free agent to depart the Reds that will have a negative impact on the Reds is left handed reliever Arthur Rhodes who signed a $3.9 million deal with Texas.  He put up some pretty amazing numbers last year (2.29 E.R.A. with a 1.02 WHIP in 55 innings) and there is nobody ready to replace him.  Grade:  D-

2.  Orlando Cabrera is still a free agent and will probably not get a major league deal this season because he was just plain awful is every aspect of the game last year.  Dusty Baker still wheeled him out there at every opportunity possible and the fact that nobody else wants him should tell you something about Baker.  Grade:  A; addition by subtraction.

3,  Laynce Nix is still a free agent also because he refused a minor league assignment by the Reds in November.  This was a mistake by Nix because 1.  the Reds were low in depth in the outfield and he still could have made the major league team and 2. he really is not that good.  Grade B; nothing lost here

LOW IMPACE ITEMS
1.  The Reds drafted nobody in the Rule 5 Draft.  The Rule 5 Draft rarely has players of any significance.  There is nothing to worry about here.  Grade:  INC

2.  The Reds changed their High-A affiliate to Bakersfield of the California League.  This may not be much to many Reds fans, but Bakersfield is largely considered the WORST facility in ALL of the minor leagues.  It is so bad that there is a movement to condemn the field.  The Reds need to explain this move and quicly fix this move.  Grade:  F

OVERALL: There was vitually nothing done to improve the club this offseason.  The additions of Renteria, Hermida and Lewis do not offset the moves of NL Central rivals Milwaukee (adding Shawn Marcum and Zach Greinke), St. Louis (adding Lance Berkman and resigning Jake Westbrook) and Chicago (trading for Matt Garza).  The rest of the division has caught up to the Reds, but all three teams are not nearly as deep in the pitching deparment as the Reds.  With a couple of solid moves, the Reds could have iced the pennent race in December, but instead, the Reds are banking that the great years from Joey Votto, Brandon Phillips, Bronson Arroyo and others were not career years, but just standard years.  This sounds like 1991 all over again.  Overall grade: D

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After not doing much at the Winter Meetings this week, the Reds moved to ensure that right fielder Jay Bruce remain a core part of the organization for years to come as they reached a deal on a new contract late Thursday.  Bruce, who was eligible for arbitration this off-season, agreed to a six-year, $51 million deal with a club option for seventh year that would bring the total to $63 million.

The move keeps the power-hitting left hander on the team until he reaches 30, but it comes with a price tag.

He’s only 23 and has yet to reach his full potential, but will he ever? The Reds are banking on it now and put their money where their mouth is.  Bruce has only played 357 games and is just a career .257 hitter. However, he has had to learn on the fly. He finished 2010 red hot, batting .306 after the All-Star Break, including a .951 OPS.  He hit .333 in August and .346 in September.

The biggest moment of his career came when he hit a walk-off homerun to lift the Reds to a division-clinching win. 

He’s an above fielder in right field and has one of the league’s best arms.

At this point of his career Baseball-Reference.com compares him to Hall of Famer Reggie Jackson among others.

Lance McAlister did point out some risks that come with Bruce on his blog that don’t need to be overlooked:
--Had just 4 HR and 18 RBI in first 47 games of 2010
--He had a home run drought of 35 games...hitting just .203, 0 HR, 7 RBI (July 1-Aug 15)
--OPS away from GABP in '10 was only .759 with 6 HR in 73 games
--Career .233 hitter away from GABP
--Hit just .239 with RISP and .188 with 2-outs and RISP in 2010

FINAL TAKE: The move is a good one by the Reds.  Based off of this week’s signings of Carl Crawford and Jayson Werth, top-level free agent outfielders don’t come cheap on the open market. The Reds will never compete for those big names. Producing homegrown talent and locking it up long term is the only way the team is going to compete on a consistent basis. It’s a win-win for both sides. The Reds get a discount and Bruce gets his money now whether than chipping away at it in arbitration of the next few years.

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With the Winter Meetings starting next Monday, December 6th, and Redsfest coming up this weekend, now is a perfect time to present Cincinnati Reds management with a realistic blueprint for the home team in 2011.  The key word in that sentence is realistic.  There are no pipe dreams in this plan like free agents Carl Crawford, Cliff Lee or Derek Jeter- big market teams can afford to overpay for these guys. There are no ridiculous trades for Jose Reyes, Justin Upton, or Brain Wilson- their teams are asking too much and the Reds’ philosophy is to build from within and not trade from within.  But at the same time, some trades and some signings should happen to push the Reds from a good team to an elite team. 

TOP PRIORITIES
1.  A real ace pitcher - the 2010 post- season showed why a hammer on the staff is needed in the playoffs. The Reds have a bunch of #2, #3, and #4 starting pitchers who do not match up well in the playoffs.  The only pitcher on the current roster that could be an ace is Aroldis Chapman, but he may not be ready yet to assume that role. 

2.  A starting leftfielder who can get on base - Jonny Gomes was exposed in the second half of the season to be nothing but a fourth or fifth outfielder.  A new left fielder needs to get on base a ton (this eliminates Scott Podsednik whose career numbers are an unimpressive .279 batting average/ a middling .340 on- base percentage/ and a miserable .381 slugging percentage).  Joey Votto came to the plate too many times last season with the bases empty.  By comparison, Albert Pujols in 2010 came to bat 30 more times with runners on base than Votto did. In addition, the Reds leadoff hitters hit a combined .244 last year with a staggering .306 on- base percentage.  The main two culprits that batted ahead Votto were Brandon Phillips, who had a .332 OBP and Orlando Cabrera, who had a pathetic .303 OBP.  This has to improve.

3.  A reliable closer - Reds fans are cringing at the possibility of another season of Francisco Cordero’s high wire act.

4.  Bench help - Laynce Nix is not coming back and Miguel Cairo is a free agent.  There is some help in the Minors, but there are one or two perfect fits for the Reds in the trade market.

BUDGET
Last year’s Opening Day budget was $76,151,500 and according to Reds administration, the budget should be slightly higher this year. 

TRADES/FREE AGENT SIGNINGS
1.  The first move is a non-move.  According to our priorities, the Reds need an ace pitcher.  The Reds will get one through a trade for Yonder Alonso… at the July Trade Deadline.  There are five reasons for this: A.) The cost of an ace pitcher is awfully high at the beginning of the season compared to the midpoint of a season, particularly, for a end- of- the- year free agent.  Along these same lines we find the laws of supply and demand… B.)  There are almost no ace pitchers on the market presently so the ones that are on the market can get a king’s ransom in return.  C.)  The Reds are built for the long haul of the 162 game season and not the short- series playoffs.  They do not need the ace until the end of the year.  D.)  Zach Greinke, the only notable ace on the market did not have a very impressive season last year (4.17 E.R.A. and 1.25 WHIP).  Let him prove his worth a little more.  Remember the Reds fascination with Erik Bedard of the Orioles after his breakthrough season a few years ago?  Thank goodness the Mariners jumped on him before the Reds.  E.)  Adrolis Chapman may develop into an ace so a trade for Greinke may be premature.  Give Chapman until the All- Star break to develop and then make an evaluation for a trade.

2.  Trade Edinson Volquez and minor league center fielder Dave Sappelt (.342/ .395/ .507 over three stops in High- A, Double- A and Triple- A) to the Florida Marlins for leftfielder Logan Morrison.  The Marlins are in the midst of an impressive makeover of the lineup, but need one more starting pitching to be a serious contender.  They have an extra corner outfielder (Chris Coghlan and Mike Stanton are the other two), they have no centerfielder, and they have some money to spend after recently dealing Dan Uggla.  They take on Volquez’s $2 million and Sappelt’s league minimum salary while dealing away a $412,000 salary to the Reds.  Why trade Volquez and not one of the other starting pitchers?  Its simple- his control is as unpredictable as Lady Gaga’s wardrobe (his walks per nine innings rate over the last three years:  5.03, 5.80, 4.27; that is way too many extra base runners).  Lastly, if the Marlins cannot be convinced to turn over Morrison, throw in Juan Francisco to possibly man third base for them.

3.  Trade pitcher Sam LeCure and Jonny Gomes to the Washington Nationals for backup outfielder Mike Morse (.289/ .352/ .519 in 266 at bats).  The Nationals are desperate for starting pitching and would look at Gomes as a possible one- year starter in left.  The Reds get back a young, cheap, underrated Morse who somehow could not win a regular job in an outfield consisting of Roger Bernadina, Josh Willingham, and Nyjer Morgan. 

4.  Re- sign Arthur Rhodes to a one- year, $2.5 million deal.  This would be a $500,000 raise from last year which makes up for the one- year pact instead of a multi- year deal.  He is getting too long in the tooth to risk anything more than a year.

5.  Sign a few free agent risks to minor league contracts (with invites to Spring Training) including Eric Chavez, Chad Tracy, and Jason Giambi.  One may win the 3B/ 1B/ left handed PH job.  This is a pretty weak group, which includes Francisco if he is still here.  As a result, let’s not take any chances and let’s trade for the Royals’ switch hitting third baseman Wilson Betemit, who stands in the way of their real third baseman, Alex Gordon.  The Royals will ask for highly regarded catching prospect Devin Mesoraco, but that is ridiculous.  A fair trade includes LH starter Daryl Thompson (52K in 51 innings and a 0.96 WHIP in Double- A) and RH reliever Carlos Fisher (38K in 36.66 innings and a 0.85 WHIP in Triple-A).  Both have lots of potential and fit in well with the Royals’ plan to win in 2012.  If another arm is needed to sweeten the deal, throw in Daniel Ray Herrera.

25-MAN OPENING DAY ROSTER
Catchers (2)
Ramon Hernandez:  $3.0 million
Ryan Hannigan:  $445,000

Comments:  Both 2010 catchers return to split the duties for one more year before Mesoraco takes Hernandez’s spot.  He may take it this year because Hernandez turns 35 this season and that is the age for catchers when the clock strikes midnight.

Total cost:  $3.445 million

Infield (6)
Joey Votto:  $8 million (arbitration estimate- his long term deal is at least a year away). 
Brandon Phillips:  $11 million
Scott Rolen:   $6.5 million. 
Paul Janish:  $445,000
Zach Cozart:  $400,000
Betemit:  $2.5 million (arbitration estimate)

Comments:   Janish and Cozart (.255/ .310/ .416 with 17 HRs in Triple- A) will vie for the starting shortstop job with either one being an improvement defensively and offensively over Orlando Cabrera (.263/.303/ and a miserable .354) who, on a side note, may not get another major league contract.  The loser of the battle is the backup at middle infield or is sent down to Louisville if another pitcher is needed.  Betemit (.297/ .378/ .511 in 276 at bats) should net 350 at bats at the four corner positions.  His ability to switch hit on a team of mostly right handed hitters and play third base on a regular basis makes him a perfect fit for this team. 

Total cost:  $28.845 million

Outfield (5)
Jay Bruce:  $2.85 million (arbitration estimate, but he should be signed to a long term deal right away.  Make an investment like the Rockies just did with Troy Tulowitzki and sign him for ten years)
Drew Stubbs:  $412,000
Logan Morrison  $412,000
Chris Heisey:  $412,000
Mike Morse:  $412,000

Comments:  Bruce will be the Reds’ best all- around player by this time next year.  He is smart, well- spoken and could be the face of the franchise.  Stubbs may never bat for a high average, but his speed, power and defense make him a Mike Cameron clone.  Morrison and his .390 on- base percentage should lead off for the Reds.  It does not matter that he did not steal one base last year (though he stole nine in both 2008 and 2009) - he will be constantly on base for Phillips, Votto, Rolen and Bruce, and therefore, the Reds may score more runs as a team than last year’s league leading total of 791.  Not convinced?  Well, as we all know, Pete Rose led off for the Big Red Machine.  In 1975, he had a grand total of… zero stolen bases for the Reds.  Look in up.  You do not need to be a speedster to lead off.  You just need to get on base.  Rose had a .406 on- base percentage and scored 112 runs, something that Morrison could come close to.

Total Cost:  $4.498 million

Starting Rotation (5)
Johnny Cueto:  $3.25 (arbitration estimate)
Bronson Arroyo:  $13 million
Travis Wood:  $412,000
Homer Bailey:  $445,000
Mike Leake:  $412,000
Comments:  Sure, you would like to see Chapman in this rotation and hopefully, that happens as early as Spring Training and the cold hand gets the long role in the bullpen.  This group can carry the Reds over the long haul.  The Cardinals do rival the Reds here (and only here), but they are thin after the top four guys and have no help if someone gets hurt.

Total Cost:  $17.519 million

Bullpen (7)
Chapman:  $1.0 million
Cordero: $12.125 million with a $1 million buyout after the season that we will already add on here
Nick Masset: $1.545 million
Bill Bray:  $.875 million (arbitration estimate)
Logan Ondrusek:  $412,000
Arthur Rhodes:  $2.5 million
Jordan Smith:  $412,000

Comments:  Not many changes here.  Matt Maloney could make the team out of Spring Training instead of Cozart if he has a strong Spring and the Reds need a long relief man.  Chapman should be the closer, but if he is in the rotation, Masset should battle Cordero for the ninth inning spotlight.  Just because Cordero makes so much money, it does not mean he has to be the closer.  In case of a bullpen malfunction, the rest of the cavalry besides Maloney includes newly signed Dontrelle Willis, Jared Burton, 2010 Futures Game selection Philippe Valiquette, and closer of the future Donnie Joseph (65 IP, 103 K, 25 BB, 2.08 E.R.A., and a .182 opponents’ average across three minor leagues in 2010).  This a deep group, so losing LeCure, Fisher, Herrera and Thompson does not hurt.

Total Cost:  $19.869 million

Team Total Cost:  Yasmani Grandal ($.4 million) and Yonder Alonso ($.5 million) both have Major League contracts so with those two included, the 2011 Opening Day payroll would be a paltry $75.076 million.  That’s right- less than last year’s budget.  This means that someone (i.e. Votto, Bruce, Cueto, Morrison, Stubbs, or Betemit in that order) could be signed to a long range contract and we would still be around last year’s payroll!

******

This plan is not a fantasy - it could happen.  Very little of the Reds farm system is impacted; Todd Frazier, Alonso, Mesoraco, and Chris Valaika are still just a phone call away from helping out.  This plan will improve the Reds most importantly at the top of the lineup, but also it will strengthen their bench, get Gomes out of left field where he was an adventure, and will help at shortstop (anything will be an improvement over an incredibly overrated Cabrera).  There are no sinkholes like Willy Taveras, Corey Patterson or Cabrera for Dusty Baker to play with and ruin the lineup.  There is speed, power, on- base skill, and a fantastic defense led by Phillips, Bruce, Stubbs, and Janish.  The most important piece of this puzzle is Morrison.  With just him, this team becomes great.  With Betemit, Morse and an ace in Chapman or in a trade at the Trade Deadline, it becomes elite.

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In a one swift Jay Bruce swing of the bat the Cincinnati Reds did something they’ve never done before, clinched the N.L. Central.

It has been 15 years since the Reds last appeared in the post-season and the team and fans enjoyed every minute of celebrating on Tuesday night at Great American Ballpark.

The game epitomized the essence of the 2010 Reds. It featured late-game heroics, a comeback effort.

One of the team’s young arms, Aroldis Chapman, picked up the win and the team was aided by great defense with Drew Stubbs pulling a would-be-homerun Astros’ backup.

It was an end not even Hollywood’s finest writers could’ve of scripted any better.

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