Fantasy Value Meter: Orioles

25. February 2013  - Published by Dan Clasgens

Undervalued – OF Nick Markakis: Hands and knee injuries cost the veteran outfielder nearly 10 weeks of his 2012 campaign. He appears to be 100 percent and durability is not much of a concern after watching him play 157 games or more for five straight years prior to last season’s misfortunes. Once considered an elite prospect, many owners have soured to the Oriole after a few seasons with minimal progress. His solid contract rate (91%) and modest power make him a solid contributor in 4 of the 5 Roto categories providing nice mid-round value.

Overvalued - RP Jim Johnson: The Orioles were one of baseball’s biggest surprises during the 2012 season and their closer followed suit. Johnson racked up 51 saves to help anchor Baltimore’s lights out bullpen. The team posted an impressive 29-9 mark in one-run games and an unheard of 16-2 record in extra innings. Johnson relied heavily on ground balls (63% rate) as he lacked the ability to strike batters out. The 29-year old only had 41 K’s in 69 innings of work. He’s a solid closer, but he’ll be hard-pressed to match last year’s totals.

Sleeper – SP Jason Hammel: If you are looking to add some nice depth to your rotation in the later rounds or for a $1 or two in the auction give the Orioles’ projected Opening Day starter some consideration. He found good success with a sinker last year to mix in with a 4-seam fastball and it led to him posting a 3.43 ERA (4.76 in 2011) and .96 K/I rate (up from .55 a year earlier).  He should continue to produce solid ERA and modest WHIP totals and that should translate into a big spike in his win total (8 LY).

Bust – 1B/OF Chris Davis: A quick glance at Davis’ 2012 stat line seemingly makes considering for your fantasy roster sensible. However, a closer look raises reasons for concern. Davis hit .270 with 33 HR a year ago, but most of the damage came down of the stretch of the season as evident by his .187 BA, 6 HR, and .551 OPS over a 49-game, mid-season span. His 30 percent strikeout rate and the fact he whiffed 132 more times than he drew a walk leaves even more doubt.

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Fantasy: Digging For Saves

15. April 2012  - Published by Dan Clasgens

With the Giants Brian Wilson becoming the latest closer in this young season lost to injury, many fantasy owners are scrambling to find saves.  Here’s a list of players that could help provide relief sooner rather than later:

Frank Francisco (NYM) – The Mets closer wasn’t drafted in nearly 50 percent of the leagues at ESPN.com, but has become quick waiver wire fodder after a hot start.  He had three saves during the first 10 games and the though the Mets aren’t playoff contenders he should plenty of chances in close games.

Grant Balfour (OAK) – Balfour has already pitched seven scoreless innings scattering two hits and two walks while striking out five batters. However, he’s only had two save opportunities thus far for a struggling A’s team

Alfredo Aceves (BOS) – With Andrew Bailey (thumb) on the shelf until at least the All-Star break, Red Sox manager Bobby Valentine has turned to Aceves as his closer. After a shaky start to the season, the righty has been sharp his last three times out, recording a pair of saves and striking out four over three innings without allowing a base runner.

Hector Santiago (CWS) – White Sox manager Robin Ventura surprised everybody when he appointed Santiago as the closer out of Spring Training. The move allowed Matt Thornton, Addison Reed and Jesse Crain to stay in their setup roles.  With three saves already under his belt the move is paying early dividends.

Brett Myers (HOU) – The former starter was moved into the closer’s role in Houston this offseason. The Astros struggle to win games making save opportunities tough to come by. There are reports that the team may already be shopping him though. If placed in the right situation Myers could prove to have some fantasy value.

Jim Johnson (BAL) – Johnson was named the closer just before the season started and has already gotten out of the gate with four saves and has not allowed a run in 4 2/3 innings of work.  He should be viewed as a decent No. 2 fantasy reliever in deeper leagues.

Brad Lidge (WAS) – With Drew Storen out until later this summer the former Phillies’ closer has found himself in the mix to close out games for the Nats. However, he’s been less than impressive of late converting just one of his two save chances. He’ll continue to get looks though along with Henry Rodriguez as the team’s short-term closer.

Santiago Casilla (SF) – Though manager Bruce Bochy has indicated he’ll go with a closer-by-committee approach in the absence of Brian Wilson, Casilla is our bet to get the bulk of the saves. He’s worth taking a flyer on if roster space is available.

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