Rays Even Series

24. October 2008  - Published by Dan Clasgens

In a game they simply had to get the Tampa Rays did just that, winning Game 2 of the World Series, 4-2. The victory evens up the best-of-seven series at one game a piece. Right-hander James Shields rebounded from a rough ALCS showing by tossing nearly 6 innings of shutout baseball. Only three major pitchers had won a game in the Fall Classic after losing twice in an LCS: Atlanta's Tom Glavine (twice), Cleveland's Chad Ogea and the New York Yankees' Mike Mussina. Shield allowed 7 hits and 2 walks through 5 2/3 innings, but got huge plays from the young Rays' defense when he needed them.

From there, the Rays' bullpen did there job, including 2 1/3 tough innings by Dan Wheeler. However, it was the team's timely hitting and execution that would prove to be the deciding factor. 

Groundouts by Carlos Pena and Evan Longoria brought in runs in the first. Tampa Bay also scored on an out in the fourth, as Jason Bartlett dropped a bunt down the first-base line with Cliff Floyd on third, bringing home the big man on the sacrifice. Meanwhile, the Phillies continued to struggle at the plate. They managed to win Game 1 despite leaving 11 men on base and going 0-for-13 with runners in scoring position. The same offensive troubles showed up again, as the Phillies left 11 more runners on base and went 1-for-15 with them in scoring position, but this time Charlie Manuel's club could not overcome the poor hitting.

The Phillies are struggling, but nobody more so than shortstop Jimmy Rollins. He enters Game 3 of the World Series an 0-for-10 hitter in the series, 9-for-47 (.192) this postseason, 11-for-58 (.190) in his playoff career, including last year's 2-for-11 exhibition in the National League Division Series sweep by the Rockies.

The teams take Friday off to travel as they head to Citizen's Bank Park in the City of Brotherly Love. Tampa Bay's Matt Garza and Philadelphia's Jamie Moyer are scheduled to pitch in Game 3 Saturday night and it appears that Sunday night's Game 4 will shape up to be Andy Sonnastine against Joe Blanton.

SCHEDULE
Game One - Philadelphia 3, Tampa Bay 2
Game Two - Tampa Bay 4, Philadelphia 2
Game Three - Saturday, October 25th - Tampa Bay at Philadelphia, 8:35 p.m.
Game Four - Sunday, October 26th - Tampa Bay at Philadelphia, 8:29 p.m.
Game Five - Monday, October 27th - Tampa Bay at Philadelphia, 8:29 p.m.
*Game Six - Wednesday, October 29th - Philadelphia at Tampa Bay, 8:35 p.m.
*Game Seven - Thursday, October 30th - Philadelphia at Tampa Bay, 8:29 p.m.

(Best-of-seven series tied, 1-1)

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Reds Musings

10. September 2008  - Published by Pete Muehlenkamp

So many Reds insights, so little time...

THE GOOD

  • RHP Ramon Ramirez has been a pleasant surprise... to some.  To others, mainly the sabermeticians, this is no surprise.  Stat wizards have long discounted E.R.A. as a primary measure of a pitcher's worth since E.R.A. depends so much on defense and the bullpen, forces outside a pitcher's control.  Instead, they look at strikeouts per nine innings, walks per nine innings, and home runs allowed.  Ramirez could be their poster boy for this argument.  His combined minor league E.R.A. was a decent, but not eye- catching, 3.70 in 2007 and 3.59 in 2008.  His other minor league numbers in 2008 of 9K/ 9 IP, 3.5 BB/ 9 IP, and 0.9 HR/ 9 are eye- popping and tell us that this kid is a major leaguer.  In his three appearances so far with the Reds, he has 16 IP, 12 K, 6 BB, and 2 HRA- right in line with his minor league numbers.  Ramirez throws a fastball in the low 90s, a below average slider, and a low 80s changeup.  Oddly enough, it is his changeup that he throws the most (58% of the time so far with the Reds) because he throws it for strikes much more often than the other pitches.  Its not all good news though.  His current BABIP (batting average of balls put into play) is a tiny .108, which means that when batters are making contact, they are hitting the ball right at people.  This rate cannot continue- its impossible.  Also, very few starters in the major leagues can make it with just two good pitches.  My prediction?  He develops into a solid mid reliever or setup reliever.

  • Even George Grande can figure out that the Reds need a big bat in the lineup for 2009 or contention seems unrealistic already.  The 2008 free agent slugger list is not an impressive one:  Pat Burrell, Adam Dunn, and Mark Teixeira head the list.  Dunn is not a possibility and Burrell and Teixeira may cost over $20 million a year on a multi-year deal.  That leaves the Reds with just one option- trades.  The Rockies' Matt Holliday has been mentioned as a target and he is a availible this winter because Holliday is a free agent after next year, the Rockies feel like he is already demanding too much for an extention, and the Rockies can get more value for him before the 2009 season.  The Reds could roll the dice and trade multiple young players (Homer Bailey, Chris Valaika, and Chris Dickerson?) for one year of Matt Holliday and then they could maybe win 82 to 85 games if they get a lot brakes.

THE BAD

  • Even if the Reds do win 85 games next year with Matt Holliday, that total can no longer win the NL Central or NL Wild Card.  A few years ago, 85 wins would surely mean the playoffs, but with the drastic improvements of the Cubs, the Brewers, the Phillies, and the Mets over the last year, 85 wins gets you a seat on the couch in October.  Yes, the Brewers may lose both C.C. Sabathia and Ben Sheets to free agency and the Mets are an old team, but the Brewers' farm system is loaded and the Mets' financial resources usually put them in contention.  The bottom line?... there is too big of a gap to close between the Reds and playoffs for the Reds to gamble on Matt Holliday.  I would trade away Brandon Phillips, Aaron Harang, and Bronson Arroyo for a ton of young talent that can help in two or three years.  The Oakland A's subscribed to this theory this past year as they traded away Dan Haren, Rich Harden, Nick Swisher and Joe Blanton for loads for top minor league talent because they figured they could not catch the Angels this year.  Now the A's have realistic hope that they may catch the Angels in 2009 or 2010.

  • The Reds did not dump the city of Sarasota in its bid for a better Spring Training complex.  The city of Sarasota dumped the Reds.  Sarasota voted to not expand and update their baseball facilities for the Reds, thus forcing the Reds to Arizona.  They are, however, going to vote to expand and update their facilities if the Boston Red Sox commit to moving to their city.  Sarasota figures that the Red Sox will bring in a lot more fans (and that means more money) than the Reds ever will.  How sad is that?

THE UGLY

  • The local media, which has been mostly kind and patient with Dusty Baker, has started to show some dissatisfaction with Baker in that he did not live up to their expectations.  I, on the other hand, am very satisfied that Baker lived up to my expectations.  The difference here is that I expected Baker to be the worst manager in the Major Leagues and he did not disappoint.  And continues to not disappoint... 1.)  On August 30th, Ramon Ramirez went seven innings, giving up three earned runs against the Giants, while striking out six and allowing seven baserunners.  The rookie's reward?  Baker sent him to the bullpen in favor of Josh Fogg.  Luckily, Fogg, who will never pitch for the Reds again, hurt himself in his next start and now Baker is forced to take a look at Ramirez as a starter.  2.)  Why is Baker playing anyone will not be with the Reds next year?  Corey Patterson, Andy Phillips, Paul Bako and Javier Valentin should never see the field so we can evaluate Wilikin Castillo (he's terrible), Danny Herrera, Ryan Hannigan, Paul Janish (put Jeff Keppinger at third and Edwin Encarnacion in left field), Adam Rosales, and Drew Stubbs (why is he at home?).  Baker wants to play the veterans to "(keep) the integrity of the races and the game".  What?  Who is that helping?  The Cubs?  The Phillies?  The Brewers?  It sure is not helping the future of the Reds.

  • When Baker puts a lineup on the field that includes Patterson, Bako, and any pitcher, he is giving away eight to twelve at bats to the opposition before the game even starts.

  • Another reason why I would trade the veteran stars on this team over the winter and stockpile young talent is because I believe the Reds have no hope for contention while they have a stubborn, uniformed, misdirected manager who has never, ever, learned from his mistakes.  Start building for the post- Dusty era.

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Fantasy: Covering The Bases

20. July 2008  - Published by Dan Clasgens

STUDS OF THE WEEK
Not only did Justin Morneau defeat a fatigued Josh Hamilton in the HR Derby and score the winning run in the 15th inning of the All-Star game, but the Twins' slugger has been helping fantasy owners of late too. He entered Sunday hitting at .460 clip (17 for 37) over the past two weeks, including 3 HR, 6 doubles, and 8 RBIs in that span.  The Brewers are loving C.C. Sabathia. The big lefty won his third game in three tries since coming to Milwaukee as he threw a complete game Friday night vs. the Giants. Sabathia gave up just four hits and one run, while striking out 10 batters

DUDS OF THE WEEK
After going 0-4 over his last five starts the Marlins' Andrew Miller was placed on the DL this week with right patellar tendinitis. Before going on the shelf Miller had given up 11 hits and walked nine batters while allowing 11 earned runs in 6 2/3 innings over his past two starts. The Red Sox highly touted rookie Jacoby Ellsbury is starting to slow down a bit at the plate, and worse yet on the base paths. Despite still leading the league with 35 SB's, Ellsbury hasn't swiped a bag since July 1 and has just one stolen base in the past month.

KEY INJURIES
David Ortiz (wrist) - set for return next weekend vs. NYY
Eric Bedard (shoulder) - out until at least early Aug.
Roy Oswalt (back) - placed on 15-day DL; hopes return 7/28
Jose Gullien (back) - missed entire weekend series w/spasms
Yunel Escobar (shoulder) - may be heading to DL
Pedro Martinez (shoulder) - start pushed back w/soreness
Johnny Damon (shoulder) - hopes to return this week
Aaron Harang (forearm) - eligible to return for 7/25 start
Shaun Marcum (elbow) - set to return Tuesday night @BAL
Fausto Carmona (hip) - could start 7/25 vs. MIN

TWICE AS NICE
Here are some two-start pitchers to consider this week:

AL
Must-starts:
Jon Lester - @SEA (R.A. Dickey), NYY (Sidney Ponson)
Javier Vazquez – TEX (Luis Mendoza), @DET (Zach Miner)
Ervin Santana – CLE (Paul Byrd), @BAL (Garrett Olson)

Sleeper Picks:

Nick Blackburn - @NYY (Sidney Ponson), @CLE (Paul Byrd)
Jesse Litsch - @BAL (Radhames Liz), SEA (Carlos Silva)

NL
Must-Starts:

Jake Peavy - @CIN (Johnny Cueto), @PIT (Paul Maholm)
Rich Harden - @ARI (Randy Johnson), FLA (Chris Volstad)
Kyle Lohse – MIL (Jeff Suppan), @NYM (Pedro Martinez)

Sleeper Picks:
Jason Bergmann - @SF (Barry Zito), @LAD (Jason Johnson)
Jorge Campillo - @FLA (Chris Volstad), @PHI (Joe Blanton)

WAIVER WATCH (from leagues played at CBSSports.com)
Five most added:
RP Jonathan Broxton (+40% roster change)
SP Jaime Garcia (+19%)
3B Hank Blalock (+18%)
SP Gio Gonzalez (+18%)
SP Joe Blanton (+13%)

Five most dropped (non-injured):
SP Justin Masterson (-8%)
RP Grant Balfour (-7%)
RP Jason Isringhausen (-6%)
SP Dave Bush (-6%)
SS Randy Wolf(-5%)

GAMES PLAYED
Let's take a look at how many games each team will be playing this week:

AL
7: BAL, KC, TB, TOR
6: BOS, CHW, CLE, DET, LAA, NYY, OAK, SEA, TEX

NL
7: CHC, FLA, MIL, PIT, SD, STL
6: ARI, ATL, CIN, COL, HOU, LAD, NYM, PHI, SF, WAS

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Phillies Add Blanton

18. July 2008  - Published by Dan Clasgens

With the New York Mets climbing back into first place with a 10-game winning streak, the Philadelphia Phillies felt it was time to answer and they attempted to do so on Thursday when they completed a deal to bring right-hander Joe Blanton to town.  Blanton helps the Phillies where they need most - in the rotation.

David Murphy of the Philadelphia Daily News suggests that, "The acquisition likely means two things. First, Adam Eaton's tenure as a starter with the Phillies is, at least for the moment, over. Second, the organization believes Blanton, who is 5-12 with a 4.96 ERA this season after going 14-10 with a 3.95 ERA last season, can overcome some recent struggles to provide the Phillies with a solid No. 2 or No. 3 starter."

"Philadelphia was aggressive," Oakland assistant GM David Forst said. "They made it clear they needed a starting pitcher to help out and we were able to get the deal done."

The minor leaguers involved are left-hander Josh Outman, who was in Double-A, second baseman Adrian Cardenas and outfielder Matt Spencer, both players in Class A.

Blanton is only 5-12 with a 4.96 ERA this season, but the move to a weaker league and a better offensive club should help his numbers.

The Reds were talking about trading Jay Bruce or Joey Votto for Blanton during the off-season. Standing pat seems like a good move now. The Phillies, at least on paper, did come up off some top-notched prospects.

Cardenas, ranked among the game's top 100 prospects by Baseball America, was hitting .309 with six triples and 16 stolen bases for Class A Clearwater. A supplemental-round pick in 2006, he was considered to be the top position prospect in the organization, although not necessarily the most major league ready. The Phillies were willing to part with Cardenas in part because they have Chase Utley ingrained at second base, Cardenas' natural position.

Outman, meanwhile, participated in big league spring training this season and appeared to be adapting to his new role as a reliever. The 23-year-old lefty was 4-2 with a 3.22 ERA and 34 strikeouts in 44 2/3 innings of relief this season at Double A Reading.

Don't count on Blanton to make a C.C. Sabathia or Rich Harden-type impact, but the Phillies needed something and likely will continue to look for ways to bolster their rotation. 

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Trade Market: Who's Next?

11. July 2008  - Published by Dan Clasgens

Our guy Tim Dierkes from MLBTradeRumors.com discusses the pitching market as the trade deadline nears:

  • Justin Duchscherer, Athletics.  Duke is leading all of baseball with a 1.78 ERA in 101 innings.  He is under team control for '09, and Billy Beane wants to wait until after the season to talk extension.  He'd be a very interesting trade chip.
  • Zack Greinke, Royals.  Despite interest, the Royals "remain decidedly uninterested in moving Greinke," according to Ken Rosenthal.
  • Derek Lowe, Dodgers.  The Phillies are interested, but the Dodgers are tied for first place right now.  Trading Lowe makes no sense.
  • Edwin Jackson, Rays.  Jackson is starting to put it together, with a 3.93 ERA in 110 innings.  Trading Jackson or Andy Sonnanstine to make room for rookie David Price seems unlikely.
  • Daniel Cabrera, Orioles.  Cabrera is having his best year, averaging over 6.5 innings per start by sacrificing his strikeout rate.  The O's control him through 2010, so they'll probably opt to hold onto him.
  • Erik Bedard, Mariners.  He's currently on the DL with a stiff shoulder, but the Phillies could still pursue him.  He's under team control through '09, but the Mariners won't get anything close to the package they gave up for him.
  • Gil Meche, Royals.  Meche and the Royals have been very clear - he's staying in Kansas City.
  • Jason Marquis, Cubs.  Marquis is signed at almost $10MM for '09, so the Cubs might have to eat salary to move him.
  • Roy Oswalt, Astros.  The Astros' ace has a full no-trade clause and is expected to stay.  He's signed through 2011.  Oswalt has, however, been scouted by several clubs.
  • Oliver Perez, Mets.  The Mets are only two games out, quieting the rumors for now.
  • Joe Blanton, Athletics.  Trading Blanton as his ERA approaches 5.00 doesn't seem wise.
  • Jarrod Washburn, Mariners.  He's been decent since June. That's a nice development for Lee Pelekoudas, who might be able to unload the $10.35MM owed to Washburn in '09.
  • Kevin Millwood, Rangers.  His groin is bothering him again, plus the Rangers might not be willing to sell.
  • Vicente Padilla, Rangers.  Padilla is on the DL with a neck strain, driving his value down further after a couple of rough starts.
  • A.J. Burnett, Blue Jays.  You know the story with Burnett - enigmatic pitcher with a dangerous opt-out after the season.  Some team seems likely to gamble on him for two months.
  • Brett Myers, Phillies.  Myers does not want to be traded, nor is a deal likely.
  • Paul Byrd, Indians.  He's been awful since the beginning of June, bringing his ERA to 5.47.  Can't be much of a market for him.
  • Homer Bailey, Reds.  His value is down, though the Reds will give him a spot start Sunday.  Wasn't long ago that he was Baseball America's #9 prospect in the game.
  • Bronson Arroyo, Reds.  His ERA is near 6.00 after 19 starts.  It'd be closer to 4.50 if you take out a pair of one-inning thrashings, but is it fair to do that?  He's signed through 2010, and the Phillies might be interested.
  • Livan Hernandez, Twins.  Would an NL team take him on? Livan had a run of four solid starts until the recent Boston beating.  Could be a DFA candidate.
  • Josh Fogg, Reds.  The Reds aren't too keen on Fogg, keeping him in the minors even after he was healthy.  He could be had for a song.
COMPLETE LIST

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