Fantasy: Buy Low Candidates

18. April 2013  - Published by Dan Clasgens

Here’s a look at five players that could prove to be great buy low candidates…

JOEY VOTTO
– The Reds first basemen finally broke a 54-game homerless streak a few days ago, but many are still balking at his power numbers.  Through the first two-plus weeks of the year Votto has totaled just 3 RBI. Those stats aren’t telling the whole story though. He has drawn 22 walks and currently boasts an eye-popping 0.521 OBP.

JOSH HAMILTON
– Moving to a new team/lineup always raises questions about what the fantasy impact could be. So far this season it has led to slow returns for Hamilton in Anaheim. The slugger has hit a pair of homers and driven in eight runs through his first 55 at bats as an Angel, but his 18 strikeouts and .200 BA have some owners frustrated.

JASON HEYWARD – The 23-year old has gotten out of the gate slowly and seems to be lost in a red-hot Atlanta lineup.  He’s batting just .127 with 2 HR and 7 RBI thus far, but it is only a matter of time before the youngster turns around.  Heyward is too talented and surrounded by too much talent to continue to post such mediocre numbers.

BUSTER POSEY – Despite my warning for owners not to overpay for the reigning NL MVP in their drafts/auctions leading into the season, now may be the time to make a run at the C/1B option. Posey has gotten out of the gate slowly with just 10 hits thru his first 47 AB (.217) and is still looking for his first long ball of the season.

MATT CAIN
- Through three starts the Giants’ ace is still searching for his first victory and his 5.94 ERA and 1.647 WHIP has fantasy owners fretting. However, he did register a two quality starts so the numbers are slightly lopsided. Expect Cain to still finish as a top 15-20 SP in fantasy this season when the dust settled.

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Reds Rants: Three Series In

11. April 2013  - Published by Dan Clasgens

The Cincinnati Reds are about 1/3 of the way through a brutal April schedule and after three series versus play-off caliber teams in the Angels, Nationals and Cardinals the team stands at 5-4. While there have been encouraging signs, there have also been some reason for concern:

THE GOOD
--Shin-Soo Choo:  Defensive issues aside he has a 1.197 OPS.
--Todd Frazier: Hitting .333 and leads team with 3 HR (tied) and 10 RBI.
--Brandon Phillips: Shuffled to the cleanup spot early in year and been clutch.
--Aroldis Chapman: Staying in closer role has him looking comfortable (5 IP, 2 SV, 9 K).
--Johnny Cueto: Could have beat Jered Weaver and won vs. Stephen Strasburg.
--Xavier Paul: Paul is 4 for 9 (.444) with a homer and six RBI. Been clutch off the bench.

THE BAD
--Ryan Ludwick: Losing your cleanup hitter for half the year on Opening Day blows.
--Joey Votto:  The power outage continues. Last HR came on 6/24 vs MIN (54 games).
--Homer Bailey: Writing off the 7 ER allowed to STL as a bad day. I’m still hoping for big things.
--Mike Leake: His leash will be short if he can’t get better than his first start vs. WAS.

THE UGLY
--Chris Heisey: Has done little with his opportunity for playing time (.188 OBP).
--Zack Cozart: In his 31 at bats the shortstop has more K’s (5) than hits (4).
--J.J. Hoover: The reliever was tagged with two of the team’s four losses.

REASON FOR HOPE
--Tony Cingrani: Has a 1.63 ERA in 40 career minor-league starts dating back to 2011.

REASON FOR CONCERN
--Sean Marshall: Left shoulder tendoinits has forced the key setup man to 15-day DL.

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Reds: Season Props

28. March 2013  - Published by Dan Clasgens

Using the projected stats from the industry leader, Fantistics, we offer up our annual Reds Over/Under Prop Bets...

My pick (bold)

REDS – Over 91 wins | Under 91 wins

JOEY VOTTO - Over 100 RBI | Under 100 RBI
JAY BRUCEOver 35 HR | Under 35
BRANDON PHILLIPS – Over 16 SB | Under 16 SB
TODD FRAZIER – Over .265 BA| Under .265 BA
SHIN-SOO CHOOMore HR than SB | More SB than HR
RYAN LUDWICK – Over 121 Hits | Under 121 Hits
ZACK COZARTOver .304 OBP | Under .304 OBP
DEVIN MESORACO – Over 396 AB | Under 396 AB

AROLDIS CHAPMAN Over 41 saves | Under 41 saves
JOHNNY CUETOOver 16 wins | Under 16 wins
MAT LATOSOver 3.53 ERA | Under 3.53 ERA
HOMER BAILEY Over 173 K | Under 173 K
BRONSON ARROYO – Over 1.129 WHIP | Under 1.129 WHIP
MIKE LEAKE – Over 183 IP | Under 183 IP

MORE MLB PROPS (PinnacleSports.com)

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Reds Lose Votto For Month

16. July 2012  - Published by Dan Clasgens

On the heels of a sweep of the St. Louis Cardinals are riding a six-game winning streak, the Cincinnati Reds got some bad news on Monday as All-Star first basemen Joey Votto was placed  on the 15-day DL due to a torn meniscus in his left knee.

Votto had surgery on Tuesday and is expected to miss 3-4 weeks.  Signs of the injury first surfaced in late June as the team was on an 11-game West Coast road trip. However, Votto tried to play through it and even participated in All-Star game festivities.

The Reds would’ve been better served to get the MRI done and put him on the shelf when the injury first occurred on June 29 in San Francisco. That was 17 days before the team put him on the DL on Monday.

Consider since the injury Votto has struggled going 9 for 35, .257, 0 HR, 2 RBI, 6 BB, .381 OBP.  It is puzzling that the team waited this long for an MRI.  Had they done so immediately they may have been able to shut him down then and have him back in 7-10 days.

Todd Frazier was plugged in at first base on Monday, Votto’s first game out of lineup. The rookie has had a decent bat, but has limited big league experience at the position. Assuming he gets most of the time there, veteran Scott Rolen will need to pick thing up at third base and avoid injuries himself.

The only other option on the big league roster at this point is Miguel Cairo and the veteran has done little this year to boast the confidence of manager Dusty Baker.

The Reds are one game up in a tight NL Central race and they want to stay there GM Walt Jocketty is likely going to have to make a move to add a corner infielder. The team needs some depth on its bench anyway so now is the time to strike.

Three players that make sense for the Reds to pursue include Padres OF/1B Mark Kotsay, Cubs 1B/OF Byran LeHair and Phillies 1B/3B Ty Wigginton.

Kotsay, 36, is likely the best option. He has a .289/.335/.410 batting line in 84 plate appearances and a salary of just $1.25 million. The left-handed hitter could provide the Reds with late-game flexibility at a reasonable cost.

One thing that favors the Reds is their schedule over the next few weeks as 23 of 29 games come against teams that currently boast a losing record:

3 – ARZ
3 – MIL
3 – at Hou
3 – at Col
4 – SD
3 – PIT
3 – at Mil
4 – at ChC
3 – NYM

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Latest MLB Odds

12. July 2012  - Published by Dan Clasgens

Here are some of the latest MLB odds entering the second half of the season...

Odds to win the 2012 World Series     
New York Yankees - 9/2
Texas Rangers - 5/1
San Francisco Giants - 11/1
Washington Nationals - 11/1
Los Angeles Angels - 11/1
Detroit Tigers - 14/1
Cincinnati Reds - 14/1
St. Louis Cardinals - 20/1
Pittsburgh Pirates - 30/1

Odds to win the 2012 NL Pennant       
Washington Nationals - 9/2
San Francisco Giants- 9/2
Cincinnati Reds - 11/2
Los Angeles Dodgers - 7/1
Atlanta Braves - 7/1
St. Louis Cardinals - 8/1
Pittsburgh Pirates - 12/1

Odds to win the 2012 NL Central        
Cincinnati Reds - 1/1
St. Louis Cardinals - 2/1
Pittsburgh Pirates - 5/2
Milwaukee Brewers - 16/1

NL MVP - Odds to Win
Andrew McCutchen (PIT) - 4/1
David Wright (NYM) - 9/2
Joey Votto (CIN) - 9/2

NL Cy Young - Odds to Win   
R.A. Dickey (NYM) - 13/10
Johnny Cueto (CIN) - 4/1

COMPLETE ODDS (Bovada.com)

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MLB All-Star Rosters Out

1. July 2012  - Published by Dan Clasgens

The rosters have been announced for the 83nd MLB All-Star Game...

NATIONAL LEAGUE
AMERICAN LEAGUE
STARTERS    
C Buster Posey, SF
1B Joey Votto, CIN
2B Dan Uggla, ATL
SS Rafael Furcal, STL
3B Pablo Sandoval, SF
OF Melky Cabrera, SF
OF Carlos Beltran, STL
OF Matt Kemp, LAD

PITCHERS     
RHP Matt Cain, SF
LHP Aroldis Chapman, CIN
RHP R.A. Dickey, NYM
LHP Gio Gonzalez, WAS
LHP Cole Hamels, PHI
RHP Joel Hanrahan, PIT
LHP Clayton Kershaw, LAD
RHP Craig Kimbrel, ATL
RHP Lance Lynn, STL
LHP Wade Miley, ARI
RHP Jonathan Papelbon, PHI
RHP Stephen Strasburg, WAS
RHP Huston Street, SD

RESERVES    
C Yadier Molina, STL
C Carlos Ruiz, PHI
1B Bryan LaHair, CHC
2B Jose Altuve, HOU
SS Starlin Castro, CHC
SS Ian Desmond, WAS
3B David Wright, NYM
OF Ryan Braun, MIL
OF Jay Bruce, CIN
OF Carlos Gonzalez, COL
OF Andrew McCutchen, PIT
OF Giancarlo Stanton, MIA
STARTERS     
C Mike Napoli, TEX
1B Prince Fielder, DET
2B Robinson Cano, NYY
3B Adrian Beltre, TEX
SS Derek Jeter, NYY
OF Josh Hamilton, TEX
OF Curtis Granderson, NYY
OF Jose Bautista, TOR
DH David Ortiz, BOS

PITCHERS
    
RHP Ryan Cook, OAK
LHP Matt Harrison, TEX
RHP Felix Hernandez, SEA
RHP Jim Johnson, BAL
RHP Joe Nathan, TEX
RHP Chris Perez, CLE
LHP David Price, TB
RHP Fernando Rodney, TB
LHP CC Sabathia, NYY
LHP Chris Sale, CWS
RHP Justin Verlander, DET
RHP Jered Weaver, LAA
LHP C.J. Wilson, LAA

RESERVES    
C Joe Mauer, MIN
C Matt Wieters, BAL
SS Elvis Andrus, TEX
SS Asdrubal Cabrera, CLE
3B Miguel Cabrera, DET
2B Ian Kinsler, TEX
1B Paul Konerko, CWS
OF Adam Jones, BAL
OF Mike Trout, LAA
OF Mark Trumbo, LAA
DH Billy Butler, KC
DH Adam Dunn, CWS

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Votto, Reds Reach Deal

4. April 2012  - Published by Dan Clasgens

It's official!!!! The Reds released this statement...

Cincinnati Reds President of Baseball Operations and General Manager Walt Jocketty today announced the signing of All-Star 1B Joey Votto to a 10-year contract extension through the 2023 season with a club option for 2024. Votto had been signed through 2013 as part of a 3-year contract he received in January 2011, when he avoided arbitration.

"We recognize the historical significance of this signing. Ownership has committed to Joey, and we anticipate that he will continue to be one of the best players in baseball for the next decade or so," Jocketty said. "He wants to stay here, and we want him here. We have shown we are committed to building a solid foundation from within the organization."

Added team President and Chief Executive Officer Bob Castellini, "Joey not only is one of the game's best players, but on the field and in the community he represents himself, the organization and our city with extraordinary professionalism and dignity. We certainly are proud to be able to keep him in Cincinnati for 12 more years."

PRESS CONFERENCE (from WCPO.com)

FROM AROUND THE WEB
--Votto's Deal Puzzling (ESPN.com)
--Votto's Massive Deal Shocks System (MLB.com)
--Votto May Be Rare Player Worth Risk (SI.com)
--What the Heck Are the Reds Doing? (FoxSports.com)
--Votto's Massive Deal Changes Game (FanGraph.com)

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Phillips, Votto Win Gold Gloves

2. November 2011  - Published by Dan Clasgens

Rawlings announced that Reds 2B Brandon Phillips and 1B Joey Votto are 2011 Gold Glove Award winners.

Phillips earns his third Rawlings Gold Glove Award and his second in consecutive years. He also won it in 2008. Phillips is the first Reds second baseman to win back-to-back Gold Gloves since Pokey Reese did it in 1999 and 2000 and the first Reds second baseman to win it 3 or more times since Joe Morgan won it 5 straight years from 1973-1977. He joins Johnny Bench (10), David Concepcion (5), Joe Morgan (5), Cesar Geronimo (4), Eric Davis (3), Barry Larkin (3) and Roy McMillan (3) as Reds players to win 3 or more Gold Gloves.

Votto becomes the first Reds first baseman ever to win a Rawlings Gold Glove and the first player in 16 years, other than Albert Pujols, Adrian Gonzalez, Derrek Lee, Todd Helton, J.T. Snow or Mark Grace to win the award at first base.

COMPLETE ARTICLE (MLB.com)

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Four Factors For Votto Trade

9. October 2011  - Published by Dan Clasgens

The early talk of the Reds' offseason is whether or not the team should trade 2010 NL MVP Joey Votto.

“We haven’t talked about it. I wish that people would stop writing it,” Jocketty told Mark Sheldon of MLB.com. “Why would we trade one of the best players in the game? We’re trying to win.”

ESPN's Buster Olney tweeted this past weeekend that "rival executives getting signals that the Reds won't shop Joey Votto -- but that they are fully prepared to listen to offers."

He added in his column that "it would be excruciating for Reds to trade Votto, an excellent homegrown player who really cares about improving. But as a business decision, it's a no-brainer".

If the Reds were going to make the deal, it would have to pay huge dividends on the other end. FanGraph.com noted four condidtions for Cincinnati to pull the trigger:

1) The team getting Votto needs to believe they can contend in 2012 and/or 2013 (after which Votto will be a premier free agent)

2) the team needs to have an open spot at first base or the ability to make space there (this is a bit tougher than just bumping a number five starter out of the rotation)

3) the team needs to have very good prospects and/or good players signed to team-friendly contracts that they are willing to move and that they can contend without in 2012 and 2013

4) the team needs to have space on their projected 2013 payroll for Votto’s $17 million contract.

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Reds: Salary Outlook

10. August 2011  - Published by Dan Clasgens

Some good stuff from Lance McAlister's blog...

Consider some of the dollars the Reds committed have over the next couple of years. This does not factor in arbitration dollars for guys like Stubbs, Bailey, Leake, Bray, Ondrusek and Volquez over next couple years.


Offseason signings
Arroyo: '11 $6.5M, '12 $7m, '13 6.5M
Cueto: '11 $3.4M, '12 $5.4M, '13 $7.4M, '14 $10M, '15 $10M*
Bruce: '11 $2.75 M, '12 $5M, '13 $7.5M, '14 $10M, '15 $12M, '16 $12.5M, '17 $13M*
Votto: '11 $5.5M, '12 $9.5M, '13 $17M
(*team option)


2011:
Cordero $12M
Phillips $11M
Votto $5.5M
Arroyo $6.5M
Rolen $6.5M
Cueto $3.4M
Hernandez $3M
Bruce $2.75M
Chapman $1M
That's 9 players making $51.6M in '11, representing 64% of '11 payroll ($80.8)


2012:
Phillips $12M (If option picked up)
Votto $9.5M
Arroyo $7M
Rolen $6.5M
Cueto $5.4M
Bruce $5M
Chapman $2M
(Minus)Cordero $12M, Hernandez $3M
That's 7 players at $47.4M in '12, representing 61% of their '11 payroll ($80.8M)


2013:

Votto $17M
Cueto $10M
Bruce $7.5M
Arroyo $6.5M
Hanigan $2M
Chapman $2M
(Minus) Rolen $6.5M, Phillips $12M
That's 6 players at $45M in '13, representing 56% of their '11 payroll ($80.8M)

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