The debate has been going on for weeks about who will leave the Cincinnati Reds starting rotation once ace Johnny Cueto (strained lat, oblique) returns from the disabled list. Now it’s nearly time for the team’s front office to make the decision.

Cueto reported no issues after Thursday’s rehab stint in Dayton and is expected to take the mound again on Tuesday night. Barring a setback his next turn in the rotation would come around on Sunday and that would likely come with the big league club.

The Reds shuffled their rotation a bit. Tony Cingrani was to pitch Thursday versus the Marlins. He has now been bumped to Friday in New York.

That leaves things looking like this for the staff in the week ahead:

(@Miami)
Tue: RHP Homer Bailey
Wed: RHP Mike Leake
Thu: RHP Mat Latos

(@Philadelphia)
Fri: LHP Tony Cingrani
Sat: RHP Bronson Arroyo
Sun: RHP Homer Bailey

It is now expected that while he could return to the rotation on Sunday (normal rest) vs. Phillies that Cueto will get the extra day of rest and pitch next Monday in New York against the Mets.

If that is the case that would be Mike Leake's spot in the rotation and would seem as if it will be Leake, not the rookie Cingrani, headed to Louisville.

THE STATS
-Cingrani through five starts: 2.83 ERA, 28 IP, 37 K, 7 BB
-Leake last five starts:  3.34 ERA, 29.2 IP, 22 K, 6 BB

While I was discouraged last time out on how quickly Cingrani lost it and I do worry about him depending on the fastball way too much, I know what Mike Leake is capable of. He’s a No. 4 or 5 starter at best and about as reliable at the plate as a hitter as he is as a pitcher.

Leake is nice depth. Cingrani is the future. He just might need to be more polished though, so brace for some bumps in the road. The Reds apparently are ready for him to hit those bumps at the major league level.

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The Cincinnati Reds are about 1/3 of the way through a brutal April schedule and after three series versus play-off caliber teams in the Angels, Nationals and Cardinals the team stands at 5-4. While there have been encouraging signs, there have also been some reason for concern:

THE GOOD
--Shin-Soo Choo:  Defensive issues aside he has a 1.197 OPS.
--Todd Frazier: Hitting .333 and leads team with 3 HR (tied) and 10 RBI.
--Brandon Phillips: Shuffled to the cleanup spot early in year and been clutch.
--Aroldis Chapman: Staying in closer role has him looking comfortable (5 IP, 2 SV, 9 K).
--Johnny Cueto: Could have beat Jered Weaver and won vs. Stephen Strasburg.
--Xavier Paul: Paul is 4 for 9 (.444) with a homer and six RBI. Been clutch off the bench.

THE BAD
--Ryan Ludwick: Losing your cleanup hitter for half the year on Opening Day blows.
--Joey Votto:  The power outage continues. Last HR came on 6/24 vs MIN (54 games).
--Homer Bailey: Writing off the 7 ER allowed to STL as a bad day. I’m still hoping for big things.
--Mike Leake: His leash will be short if he can’t get better than his first start vs. WAS.

THE UGLY
--Chris Heisey: Has done little with his opportunity for playing time (.188 OBP).
--Zack Cozart: In his 31 at bats the shortstop has more K’s (5) than hits (4).
--J.J. Hoover: The reliever was tagged with two of the team’s four losses.

REASON FOR HOPE
--Tony Cingrani: Has a 1.63 ERA in 40 career minor-league starts dating back to 2011.

REASON FOR CONCERN
--Sean Marshall: Left shoulder tendoinits has forced the key setup man to 15-day DL.

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Undervalued - SP Johnny Cueto: The Reds’ ace has been as consistent as they come over the past two seasons posting a 2.58 ERA over 57 starts. He set career highs with 19 wins and 170 strikeouts in 2012 while yielding a 2.78 ERA and 1.17 WHIP. The right oblique strain that knocked him out of the playoffs last fall is behind him. Cueto is a borderline elite fantasy option that has all the tools to be a top 15 fantasy starter but the latest ADP numbers have him outside of the top 20 starters off the board.

Overvalued - RP Jonathan Broxton: Broxton was resigned with the Reds this offseason and appears to be locked in as the team’s closer with Aroldis Chapman moving to the rotation. The right hander was acquired in a Trade Deadline deal from Kansas City and produced modest stats for Cincinnati down the stretch. While he’s likely to land the job out of camp, Broxton must perform to keep it. He’s lost 3 MPH off his fastball and no longer delivers the strikeouts he used to, relying on more groundballs (.42 to .53 rate in 2012).  The righty is not a bad late-round flyer for cheap saves, but there are players in the same tier that offer more upside.

Sleeper - SP Homer Bailey:  After a ton of hype, Bailey finally managed to stay healthy in 2012 as he started a career-high 33 games while setting personal best marks with 3.68 ERA and 208 innings pitched. He was 8-4 with a 3.12 ERA and a 107/25 K/BB ratio in 118 1/3 innings over the final three months of last season, a run that included a late September no-hitter against the Pirates. His one-hit, 10-K performance in a no decision game against the Giants in the playoffs was masterful. If Bailey can figure out a way to have more success at home (.526 SLG against at GABP) he could prove to be a valuable fantasy commodity.

Bust - LF Ryan Ludwick: The move to Great American Ballpark breathed life back into Ludwick’s fantasy value. In his first season as a Red the veteran boasted a 275/.346/.531 stat line. However, he’s been very streaky in recent years and really struggled in April hitting .198 and .190 the last two years. Putting up last year’s numbers is his ceiling though.  His age (35) and discipline at the plate are concerns. He’s not a bad source of cheap, late power numbers in an improved Reds lineup, but you will not want to count on him as one of your primary outfield options.

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Some good stuff from Lance McAlister, ESPN 1530...

SP/Innings--'12--- on pace--'11 IN--career high
Cueto         161.2----227.2---170.1----185.2 ('10)
Arroyo        143.2----201.2---199------240.2 ('06)
Leake        131.2----185.2---175------175   ('11)
Bailey        141.1-----199.1---162-----203   ('09)      
Latos         141.2----199.2---194.1----194.1 ('11)   

On pace to throw more innings that last year
Cueto: +57.1
Arroyo +2.2
Leake +10.2
Bailey +37.1
Latos +5.1

On pace to top career high in innings
Cueto +42
Leake +10.2
Latos +5.1

*All 5 starting pitchers are on pace to throw at least 180 innings

*The last time the Reds had 5 starting pitchers toss at least 180 innings was 1951:
Ken Raffensberger 248.2
Ewell Blackwell 232.2
Howie Fox 228
Willie Ramsdell 196
Herm Wehmeier 184.2

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Here are some of the latest MLB odds entering the second half of the season...

Odds to win the 2012 World Series     
New York Yankees - 9/2
Texas Rangers - 5/1
San Francisco Giants - 11/1
Washington Nationals - 11/1
Los Angeles Angels - 11/1
Detroit Tigers - 14/1
Cincinnati Reds - 14/1
St. Louis Cardinals - 20/1
Pittsburgh Pirates - 30/1

Odds to win the 2012 NL Pennant       
Washington Nationals - 9/2
San Francisco Giants- 9/2
Cincinnati Reds - 11/2
Los Angeles Dodgers - 7/1
Atlanta Braves - 7/1
St. Louis Cardinals - 8/1
Pittsburgh Pirates - 12/1

Odds to win the 2012 NL Central        
Cincinnati Reds - 1/1
St. Louis Cardinals - 2/1
Pittsburgh Pirates - 5/2
Milwaukee Brewers - 16/1

NL MVP - Odds to Win
Andrew McCutchen (PIT) - 4/1
David Wright (NYM) - 9/2
Joey Votto (CIN) - 9/2

NL Cy Young - Odds to Win   
R.A. Dickey (NYM) - 13/10
Johnny Cueto (CIN) - 4/1

COMPLETE ODDS (Bovada.com)

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The war of worlds is going on big time between Cincinnati Reds manager Dusty Baker and former St. Louis Cardinals skipper Tony LaRussa.

The two have never been fond of each other, but after Johnny Cueto and Brandon Phillips were both left off of the NL All-Star roster Baker had some choice words for his former rival, who is managing the National League team despite retiring prior to this season.

A strong case could be made for both Cueto and Phillips. Both were key figures in a ugly bench-clearing brawl between the bitter division rivals in 2012, a year the Reds knocked off the Cardinals to win the division.

“A snub like that looks bad. Johnny and Brandon were at the center of a skirmish between us and the Cardinals,” Baker told reporters on Sunday. “Some of the Cardinals who aren’t there anymore are making some of the selections.”

LaRussa promptly responded with equally volitale words to Baker.

"Which of these guys would he like me to kick off? I'd like to know that. There's a second baseman over in Arizona (Aaron Hill) who has credentials to be on the team,” LaRussa told the St. Louis Post-Dispatch. "I don't take that kind of (bleep). That's typical ... (from Baker) and that's unacceptable. There's no question I did the right thing. I haven't been this ticked off since ... well, nothing."

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As Memorial Day is quickly approaching we take a quick look at the top candidates for the National League’s Cy Young Award:

TOP CONTENDERS
Stephen Strasburg, WAS
3-0, 1.64 ERA, 0.91 WHIP; 51/10 K:BB ratio in 44 innings
A year removed from his Tommy John surgery the young right hander has been sensational as the anchor of MLB’s best pitching staff. A possible inning limit could hurt his chances in the long run, but few hurlers in baseball have looked better to this point of the season.

Lance Lynn, STL
6-1, 1.81 ERA, 0.90 WHIP; 44/14 K:BB ratio in 44.2 innings
Lynn was forced into the rotation when Chris Carpenter was shelved to start the year. With Adam Wainwright struggling out of the gate, Lynn has been the ace of the first-place Cardinals’ rotation to this point of the season, cementing his spot as a starter.

Johnny Cueto, CIN
4-0, 1.12 ERA, 0.97 WHIP; 31/8 K:BB ratio in 48.1 innings
If not for poor run support, Cueto could easily have a couple more of victories. Only Ryan Dempster has posted a better ERA since May 1 of last year than Cueto, who has emerged as a legitimate No. 1 starter. If he can survive pitching in Great American Ballpark during the dead heat of summer again he’ll stay in the conversation.

Matt Cain, SF
2-2, 2.28 ERA, 0.74 ERA; 48/9 K:BB ratio in 51.1 innings
His low win total could really take its toll on Cain’s Cy Young chances, but the rest of the numbers are there. He’ll benefit from pitching the majority of his games in the pitcher-friendly ballparks that permeate the NL West. Look for him to pick up the win rate and be a strong candidate by year’s end.

OTHERS TO WATCH
Gio Gonzalez, WAS
Anibal Sanchez, MIA
Brandon Beachy, ATL

DON’T COUNT THEM OUT
Clayton Kershaw, LAD
Cliff Lee, PHI
Roy Halladay, PHI
Zach Greinke, MIL

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Lance McAlister provided some perspective on Reds' ace Johnny Cueto on his blog:

SINCE RETURNING FROM DL
9 starts: 5-2 1.63 ERA.
He has produced 8 quality starts in his 9 starts.
He has not allowed more than 3 runs in any start.
Earned runs allowed:
3 runs: twice
2 runs: twice
1 run: once
0 runs: four times

GROUND BALL TO FLYBALL RATIO
2008: 0.67
2009: 0.76
2010: 0.79
2011: 1.43

That leads to keeping the ball in the park. He has allowed just 4 HR in 60.2 innings this season. HR's allowed per 9 innings:

2008: 1 every 6.0
2009: 1 every 7.1
2010: 1 every 9.7
2011: 1 every 15.0

*Cueto's next step is carrying this first half success into the second half and finishing strong.

CAREER SPLITS
1st half season: 28-19 3.56
2nd half season: 9-15 4.88

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Coming into this season most thought the Cincinnati Reds would have one of the strongest starting pitching rotations in the National League, if not in all of baseball. However, before the season even began both Johnny Cueto and Homer Bailey hit the disabled list. Both came back around the same time but Bailey has hit the DL once again and the rotation has been a revolving door with guys coming up from the minors to fill in gaps. Cueto, on the other hand, has been the shining light in the rotation as we enter the early part of June. He's silently been taking the mound and pumping out quality start after quality start.

Since coming off the DL on May 8th, Cueto has had 6 starts, all but one of them has been a quality outing. His record stands at 2-2 but could easily be 6-0 if either the offense hadn't failed him, or the bullpen hadn't given away games. He hasn't given up more than three runs in any game which has him leading the team with an ERA of 2.27, one of the best in the league. In 39.2 innings pitched so far this season he's only given up three home runs and has struck out 23.

In Cueto's outing yesterday against the Los Angeles Dodgers, he pitched a solid seven innings, giving up two runs on five hits while striking out three. The Reds offense built a nice 7-2 lead for him only to see the bullpen blow it by giving up five runs in the eighth inning. What should have been a sure win for Cueto turned into an extra innings loss for the Redlegs. The bullpen was thought to be one of the strongest in baseball coming into this season but time and time again have blown games behind solid starting pitching. Cueto did what he had to do yesterday to get his team the win. He was taken out of the game after just 88 pitches. Hindsight is 20/20. With a 7-2 lead going into the eighth inning you would think, being Dusty Baker, that you could trust your bullpen to come in and close out the game. Unfortunately for Cueto, and ultimately the team as a whole, that was not the case yesterday.

In a season that has seen it share of ups and downs already for the Reds, especially when it comes to the pitching, the one constant has been Cueto so far. Travis Wood, Bronson Arroyo and Edinson Volquez (who was sent down to the minors to fix himself and set to come back tomorrow night possibly) have been inconsistent all season, to say the least. Cueto has stepped up and at this point has become the ace of this pitching staff. Coming into the season the thought was, if he could stay under control and stay focused, he could be one of the best starters in the rotation, if not in the league. He has, and he is. If the Reds are going to get back to the playoffs this year they are going to need Cueto to continue to do what he's doing. More importantly, they're going to need some of what he's been doing to rub off on the rest of the rotation.

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The Reds welcomed starter Johnny Cueto back to the rotation on Sunday at Wrigley Field and the right-hander was nothing short of sensational in his first time out this season.

Cueto struggled through four rehab starts (0-2, 6.28 ERA) in attempt to recover from right biceps and triceps irritation, but showed no signs of problems against the Cubs. He went six plus innings, allowing five hits while holding Chicago scoreless.

It comes on the heels of Homer Bailey’s stellar debut in Thursday’s win over the Astros in which he only allowed one run in over six innings of work while striking out seven.

"That's the boost we were looking for," Reds manager Dusty Baker told reporters. "That was an outstanding performance by Johnny and Homer. That's 40 percent of your starting staff, so that's big."

Given the rotation’s struggle, particularly in the early inning of games, it is huge for the Reds to keep opponents off the scoreboard. Now if they can only get the offense going.

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