INSIDE THE NUMBERS
The Patriots tight end duo of Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez combined for 169 catches for 2,237 yards and 24 touchdowns in 2011. Gronkowski emerged as the most elite fantasy option at the position with 21 touchdowns in 19 games (including playoffs) and now has 32 total scores since the start of the 2010 season. Hernandez also is a top five TE option for owners to consider after averaging 11.5 yards per catch. New England used two tight ends or more on 70 percent of their plays and passed to a tight end 40 percent of the time last season.

SCHEDULE
Three of the Patriots first four and four of their first six games come on the road. Conversely, three of their final four contests come at home. They draw the NFC West this year, which aside from the tilt with the 49ers should lead to hefty fantasy numbers. Many have circled their calendars for the Week 5 showdown vs. Denver as another chapter in the epic Brady vs. Manning rivalry. The fantasy playoff matchups of Houston, San Francisco and at Jacksonville could be better, but with Brady and company owners shouldn’t fret.

STUD
After throwing for a career-high 5,235 yards and 39 touchdowns in 2011 Tom Brady could be poised for an even bigger season in 2012 with all of the weapons he has available to him. Arguably the safest pick in fantasy football, Brady threw for multiple scores in 14 of his 16 starts a year ago. Durability is also a great asset for the Patriots’ signal caller. Aside from 2008 when he suffered a season-ending knee injury in Week 1 Brady has started every game since 2002 for New England.

DUD
New England has a long history of signing veterans on the downward spiral of their career and squeezing a last bit of juice out them.  This year’s again addition is former Colts’ running back Joseph Addai. The 29-year old is likely to lose out to some of the team’s younger options and might not even make the team. Addai hasn’t been able to stay healthy in recent years, playing in just 20 games since the start of the 2010 season. During that span he’s scored just five times and he’s averaged over 4.0 yards per carry just once over the last four years.

SLEEPER
Somebody has to replace Benjarvus Green-Ellis and his 25 touchdowns over the past two years and second-year running back Stevan Ridley is the primary candidate to do so. He’s easily the most physical runner in the team’s crowded backfield. Ridley averaged 5.1 yards a carry with 87 attempts for 441 yards and one touchdown as a rookie and is going to see those numbers rise significantly in 2012. The Patriots backfield often provides fantasy headaches, but the potential for 1,000 yards and double-digit touchdown totals are there for Ridley.

NEW ADDITION
True to his word free agent Brandon Lloyd followed Josh McDaniels, who helped resurrect his career in 2010 while in Denver.  McDaniels, now the Patriots’ offensive coordinator, knows how to get the most out of Lloyd. After splitting time between Denver and St. Louis last season, Lloyd will settle in to a New England offense that is loaded with weapons. At best, he will become Brady’s third option in the passing game though with both Gronkowksi and Wes Welker likely to get more targets. There should be enough balls to go around though making him a viable WR2 in most fantasy lineups.

POSITION BATTLE
While Ridley is likely to get the bulk of the short-yardage work and lead the team in carries, it will be interesting to see how Shane Vereen and Danny Woodhead split time working as the change-of-pace back and third-down option. Woodhead has produced decently in recent years, but the Patriots invested a second-round pick in the 2011 draft on Vereen and that suggests that the youngster is going to get every opportunity to succeed.

BENCH BUILDER
Jabar Gaffney will be hard pressed to match 2011 career totals, but landing in New England does bring some familiarity. He played for the Patriots from 2006-08 and under McDaniels in Denver two years ago. Targets will be tough to come by, but the possession receiver should see enough balls to warrant being looked as a WR4 or WR5 in deeper formats. If an injury occurs his value will only rise. You can do much worse with a pick in the latter rounds than the veteran wideout.

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Get your free football picks againt the spread and live football odds from our friends at Doc's Sports.

We take a look at some of the headlines around pro football...

‘SKINS SUSPEND HAYNESWORTH
The $100 million headache that is Albert Haynewsorth was suspended without pay on Tuesday for conduct detrimental to the team and it's hard to imagine this relationship lasting into next season as the Redskins likely will seek to trade or release him in the offseason...MORE (ESPN.com)

BRONCOS TURN PAGE
The Denver Broncos fired head coach Josh McDaniels on Monday after a short, but controversial stint in the Mile High City. After winning his first six games a year ago, he watched his team drop 17 of their next 22 games…MORE (Denver Post)

FAVRE’S STREAK IN JEOPARDY?
Minnesota Vikings' interim coach Leslie Frazier indicated that Brett Favre will not practice on Wednesday, but will attempt to test his injured throwing shoulder during Thursday's practice. Frazier has gone on the record saying Favre will start if he is able to.  His NFL-record 297-game streak could be on the line...MORE (Minneapolis Star Tribune)

BIG BEN BEARING MASK
Despite breaking his nose in Sunday night's battle with the Ravens, Pittsburgh Steelers' quarterback Ben Roethlisberger is set to start Sunday as the Bengals play a visit. He was already dealing with a foot injury and will now be sporting a clear, protective mask...MORE (Pittsburgh Post-Gazette)

NECK NAGGING ADDAI
With the signing of free agent running back Dominic Rhodes yesterday it is becoming more apparent that the Colts are not going to get running back Joseph Addai back anytime soon. A neck/shoulder injury has sidelined him since October and will keep him out of action again this week...MORE (Indianapolis Star)

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QB
Tony Romo (thumb) - non-throwing hand; not serious
Shaun Hill (forearm) - non-throwing arm; out indefinitely
Jason Campbell (knee) - undergoing MRI on Monday

RB
Joseph Addai (shoulder) - arm in sling; Colts have Week 7 bye
Kareem Huggins (knee) - out for season with ACL injury

WR
DeSean Jackson (concussion) - unlikely to play in Week 7
Malcom Floyd (hamstring) - forced out and questionable for this week
Pierre Garcon (finger) - doesn't appear to be serious
Eddie Royal (groin) - status unknown

TE
Antonio Gates (ankle) - foot in boot; 85 consecutive starts in jeopardy
Vernon Davis (knee) - MRI scheduled for Monday
Chris Cooley (concussion) - will need to pass battery of tests

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Entering 2009 there was plenty of fantasy buzz swirling around Colts’ rookie running back Donald Brown. The team invested a first-round pick on him and with questions surrounding Joseph Addai many owners invested heavily in Brown, spending an early mid-round pick on him.

Addai spoiled the fun turning in a very respectable season, amassing 1,164 total yards and 13 total touchdowns. In addition, a shoulder injury cost Brown five games and limited him for even more.

This year look for owners to go hard after Addai as he should command a second-to-fourth round pick in most leagues, and rightfully so.

However, Brown could provide great value in later rounds. Expect him to play a much larger part and with Addai in a contract year, the second-year runner is more likely the long-term option.

Touches will be the key to success, but if something happens to where Addai struggles or gets hurt look for Brown to emerge.

Even with a healthy Addai, Brown could produce good enough numbers to be a trusty flex play in larger leagues.

He’ll likely be around in the mid-rounds come draft night and will deliver more upside than most taken at that point of the draft. His value goes up even higher in keeper formats.

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PEYTON MANNING – Duh! It’s no secret that the Colts have the best quarterback on the planet. Manning’s ability to coach on the field and exploit opponents with his quick decision making abilities and cannon arm is unprecedented. Betting against him on a big stage isn’t very bright.

DEPTH AT RECEIVER – Not only do the Colts’ posses the game’s top receiving tight end in Dallas Clark, but youngsters Pierre Garcon and Austin Collie have proved to be capable complements at receiver to Pro Bowl wideout Reggie Wayne.

CLOSING OUT GAMES – All year long even when their backs were to the wall, Indianapolis found a way to win ball games. They don’t always dominate opponents, but no team in football finds more ways to win than the Colts.

SHORT YARDAGE SUCCESS – Despite not having a dominant running game, Indy is clutch in short-yardage situations on both sides of the ball. Joseph Addai is good at hitting holes and Manning has the ability to audible and find an open receiver quickly. On defense, the Colts have the muscle up front to clog up holes.

BEEN THERE DONE THAT – Many of the players on this year’s edition of the Colts were part of the Super Bowl champions just a few years ago. That experience, coupled with their professional attitude and approach, will pay dividends against an inexperienced Saints’ team.

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Okay, Round Three is where things start to get interesting...

RECAPS: Round One | Round Two

ROUND THREE
25. HUMBERT - WR R. White (ATL)
26. FISCHER - WR M. Colston (NO)
27. CLASGENS - WR S. Smith (CAR)
28. ANSELMO - RB P. Thomas (NO)
29. MURDICO - WR D. Bowe (KC)
30. SIMS - RB R. Grant (GB)
31. SCHMITT - QB K. Warner (ARI)
32. WETZEL - WR T. Owens  (BUF)
33. BRYANT - WR T. Houshmandzadeh (SEA)
34. DINSMORE - RB J. Addai (IND)
35. SIMON - RB M. Lynch (BUF)
36. BROERING - WR C. Ochocinco (CIN)

POSITION BREAKDOWN: WR (7), RB (4), QB (1)

MY PICK: After taking a RB and QB, I had no choice but to wideout. I was hoping to grab one of my top 5 wideouts, but I couldn't pass on the Tier 1 quarterback (Peyton Manning) in Round Two. Still, Steve Smith is nice value here. People forget  when they look at his numbers that he missed two games due to a suspension last season. Smith has only played in all 16 games twice in his career, but the durability wrap is misleading. His numbers were down a bit last year as the Panthers ran early and often. They scored 21 rushing touchdowns over the last eight games. Still, Smith averaged over 5 catches per game and broke the 100-yard mark eight times in 14 tries. Carolina is a run first team, but I expect Smith to find the end zone a few more times in '09. Smith is a low-end WR1 with significant upside.

BEST VALUE PICK: If you read this blog regularly you know I already feel strongly about Pierre Thomas' upside. With that in mind, I peg Joseph Addai as my best value pick of the round. After scoring 15 TD's in '07, last season was a bit rough for the Colts' running back. He started strong by scoring four times in the first four games, but missed four games and parts of two others with injuries after that. The guy was a top 5 pick a year ago and plays in one of the league's best offenses. Getting him 34th overall is great value. The team drafted Donald Brown and he will push for time, but perhaps that will have a good impact on Addai and push him to do better (i.e. Jonathan Stewart's affect on DeAngelo Williams).

MOST LIKELY TO DISAPPOINT: Marshawn Lynch at this point is the worst pick of the draft so far. Not only is he losing the first three games (most fantasy leagues only play 13 weeks) due to a suspension, but he was outperformed most of last season by Fred Jackson. Expect Lynch to still be the featured back upon his return, but Jackson and the newly acquired Dominic Rhodes are going to get their crack at carries. I have at least eight RB's still available rated higher than him on my latest Cheat Sheet. Lynch could prove worthy, but he could have drafted a round or two from now most likely.

FINAL TAKE: Round Three is where fantasy championships start to get formed. It's hard to mess up the top two picks, but the decisions made between Rounds 3-7 are the ones that seperate pretenders from contenders. One thing is clear so far though, running back depth is much better than that at wide receiver this season.

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Fantasy Sports Girl Candace has the Indianapolis Colts camp preview...

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Some parting shots from the first weekend of the NFL playoffs:

*I forgot what is was like to watch commericals during NFL games, oh how I already miss the NFL Ticket and the Red Zone Channel

*Matt Ryan had a great season and has single-handedly turned out the fortunes of the Falcons' franchise, but stopping RB Michael Turner is still the key to beating Atlanta. The Cardinals' defense suprisingly held him to 42 yards on 18 carries. For the record Ryan finished the game 26 of 40 for 199 yards and 2 TD's, but he also threw two big picks.

*Larry Fitzgerald is the best receiver in the NFL...period. The TD catch he made was amazing, but it is just one of many he had during the season.

*The Colts can't win playoff games without a running game. Joseph Addai only mustered 44 yards on 16 carries. Running the football is a must in winning come playoff time.

*L.T. is done. I don't see him ever returning to his former self. Do you think the Chargers would like to have Michael Turner back now?

*Darren Sproles is the man - and was a stellar sleeper pick in my playoff fantasy football lineup! He produced the third most total yards in playoff history, including 105 yards rushing on 23 carries and 2 TD's!

*How did Phillip Rivers miss the Pro Bowl?

*The Ravens were my sleeper pick of all of the wildcard teams. Their defense is nearly as good as their 2000 unit that won the Super Bowl. Their running game can wear any team down and rookie quartberback Joe Flacco is much better than Trent Dilfer. Can you say Super Bowl? Let's not get too carried away yet, but it wouldn't suprise if it happened.

*Flacco became the third rookie QB to win their first post-season start. Everybody knows Ben Roethlisberger did it, but I completely forgot about Shaun King (Tampa Bay 2001), where did he go?

*Chad Pennington had a great season and certainly deserved his second Comeback Player of the Year award, but on Sunday he remembered that he indeed was Chad Pennington.

*If the Vikings are serious about winning they cannot go in to next season with Tavaris Jackson and Gus Frerotte as their quarterbacks.

*It's hard to believe that a little more than a month ago the Eagles actually benched Donovan McNabb. Expect both him and head coach Andy Reid to return to Philly in '09.

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Did you miss this week's Fantasy Playbook as I go on with Lance McAlister on 1530 Homer the Sports Animal? Either way here's my notes from the show...

WHERE WILL THEY FALL? (Draft Outlook) – Some Intriguing Options In ’09?
Matt Ryan (ATL) – The rookie has impressed for sure. He has given owners multiple TD’s in 5 of his last 7, but he’ll need to get more consistent to join the elite. I will have somewhere between No. 8 and No. 12 on the Cheat Sheet which makes him next year’s Jay Cutler and somewhere around a late 4th to 5th round pick.

Pierre Thomas (NO) – The 23-year old has a bright future and has blown up with 6 touchdowns over the past 4 weeks and can take over the job in New Orleans if he finishes strong. The jury is still out, but if I were drafting today I wouldn’t be afraid to pull the trigger on him in Round 3.

Cadillac Williams (TB) – The Bucs’ system can produce fantasy success and his progress back to this point has been amazing. Williams has the potential to be a steal anywhere after the fourth round, particularly if the Bucs do little in the off-season to change the landscape of their backfield.

Braylon Edwards (CLE) – Coming off a season in which he made 17 trips to the end zone, Edwards has easily been one of the biggest busts in fantasy football this year. Still, I like his upside and the idea of Brady Quinn developing more chemistry with him. He could be a steal in the mid-rounds of the draft next year.

Dustin Keller (NYJ) – The rookie has gotten better as the season has progressed. Since week 9 Keller has 31 receptions for 346 yards. With a full season under his belt he could emerge as a top 5 player at the position in ’09, particularly if Brett Favre, who loves throwing to tight ends, returns to the Jets.

INJURIES TO WATCH
Clinton Portis (knee, hip, neck) – Amazingly Portis is not on the Redskins’ injury report and appears ready to run against the Bengals. The ‘Skins offensive line is hurting, but No. 26 is still a No. 1 option in Week 15 at RB.

Frank Gore (ankle) – Gore missed practice for the second straight day on Thursday and is a full-fledged game-time decision for Sunday’s 1:00 start at Miami. If he starts, he’s safe to play. If not, DeShaun Foster will try to shoulder the load for San Fran. I find a better option though if that happens.

Joseph Addai (IND) – the Colts’ running back could play, but with the Lions paying a trip to Indy why risk it? Look for Dominic Rhodes to see the bulk of the workload in this match-up.

Marion Barber (toe, calf) – making progress, but still not 100% and very much a game-time decision for Sunday night’s showdown in the Big D with the Giants. Tashard Choice will get the call again if Barber sits.

Brandon Jacobs (knee) – it’s looking more and more as if the Giants will take caution and sit Jacobs. The official word won’t come to later this weekend, but I am expecting Derrick Ward to get the call on Sunday night.

WEEK 15 VALUE PACK
QB – Tyler Thigpen (vs. SD) – He threw for 266 yards and three touchdowns in Week 10’s match-up with the Chargers and  9 TD passes over his last five games. Another good effort appears to be in order this time around.

RB – Maurice Morris (@StL) – Morris was given the bulk of the carries in Week 14 for the Seahawks and if that happens again in Week 15, the veteran makes for a sneaky flex play against a Rams’ defense that cedes 30.4 fantasy points per game to running backs. Don’t get crazy with him, but if you are in a pinch grab him.

WR – Davone Bess (vs. SF) - Over the past three games, Bess has caught 20 passes for a combined 245 yards, including a 9-catch performance in last week against the Bills. I like his chances as the Dolphins host a San Fran defense that has allowed 24.9 fantasy points per game to wideouts.

TE – Donald Lee (@Jax) – He has caught a touchdown in three of his last four games, including a 20-yard strike in Week 14. If you are looking for a waiver wire pickup to start look no further than the Packers’ tight end.

DEF – Redskins (@ Cin) – It’s not rocket science, but any defense match-up against an injury-plagued Bengals’ offense equals fantasy success. The Redskins should continue that trend in Week 15.

**CATCH THE SHOW ON 1530HOMER.COM - Click on Thursday's 4:00 hour (4:30 weekly)**

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Here are some injuries that fantasy owners will want to keep their eyes on for Week 14:

QUARTERBACKS
Ben Roethlisberger (knee) - no limitations in practice on FRI
Matt Schaub (knee) - probable and expected to start at GB
Matt Hasselbeck (back) - doubtufl; Seneca Wallace likely to start

RUNNING BACKS
Marion Barber (toe) - missed third straight practice; not looking good
Joseph Addai (knee) - added to report on FRI; a game-time decision
Clinton Portis (knee/back) - game-time decision; doesn't play until 8:15
Steven Jackson (quadriceps) - probable; could see increased work
Brian Westbrook (knee, ankle) - expected to start vs. NYG
Marshawn Lynch (back) - ready to face MIA; listed as probable
Ryan Grant (thumb) - should see "normal workload" according to coach
Willis McGahee (illness) - returned to practice FRI
Kevin Smith (shoulder) - limited in practice, but probable vs. MIN
Deuce McAllister (suspension) - will be active, but behind P. Thomas

WIDE RECEIVERS
Anquan Boldin (back) - set to start on SUN vs. STL
Laveranues Coles (thigh) - questionable, yet he should go vs. SF
Derrick Mason (shoulder) - practiced w/out limitations on FRI
Anthony Gonzalez (shoulder) - late addition to injury report
Mark Bradley (calf) - has been ruled out for Week 14
Koren Robinson (knee) - will start vs. NE, but not a great play

TIGHT ENDS
Kellen Winslow (ankle) - ruled out w/high-ankle sprain

DEFENSIVE LINE
Kevin Williams (suspension) - expected to play on SUN vs. DET
Pat Williams (suspension) - expected to play on SUN vs. DET
Gaines Adams (knee) - questionable for MON night vs. CAR
Adewale Ogunleye (shoulder) - status unclear for Week 14
Fred Robbins (shoulder) - Counting on him to return vs. PHI

LINEBACKERS
London Fletcher (foot) - did not practice FRI; questionable
D.J. Williams (groin) - not expected to play vs. KC
Gary Bracket (fibula) - out for Week 14 vs. CIN

DEFENSIVE BACKS
Bob Sanders (knee) - returned to full practice FRI; questionable
Champ Bailey (groin) - not expected to play vs. KC
Cortland Finnegan (hamstring)- expected to play vs. CLE
Nate Clements (thumb) - questionable following minor surgery
Nick Harper (ankle) - returned to limit practice on FRI; should play

LATEST PLAYER NEWS (KFFL.com)

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