Here are some of the latest headlines from around the MLB Hot Stove to heat you up:

DODGERS STILL WAITING FOR MANNY (ESPN.com)
The Dodgers made a $45 million offer to Ramirez in November and then withdrew it when Boras did not respond, and then the Dodgers made an offer of arbitration, and again, Boras did not respond, according to L.A. officials. So the Dodgers have sat back and waited for any other serious bidder for Ramirez to emerge, waited to see if there was any reason to extend their own offer...MORE

VARITEK STAYING IN BOSTON (Boston Globe)
The captain is not going anywhere. Ending a three-month saga hours before a team-imposed deadline, the Red Sox and catcher Jason Varitek agreed to a one-year contract with a team option for 2010, two sources with knowledge of the deal confirmed yesterday. Varitek, who turns 37 in April, will receive $5 million in 2009. The Sox hold a $5 million option for 2010...MORE

SHEETS RUNNING OUT OF OPTIONS (MLB.com)
Ben Sheets and the Brewers have not spoken since the Brewers asked whether Sheets would consider an incentive-based contract similar to John Smoltz's ($4.5MM in incentives) or Brad Penny's ($3MM in incentives). It appears that Sheets was not open to an similar offer, but the Brewers won't offer a multi-year deal. GM Doug Melvin maintains the club isn't likely to sign Sheets, but he hasn't completely ruled out the possibility...MORE

CUBS SHOPPING HILL (Baltimore Sun)
The Orioles and Chicago Cubs are again involved in trade talks, this time about Cubs left-handed starting pitcher Rich Hill. According to industry sources, the teams have had talks about Hill, a one-time top prospect who is struggling to regain his command. Tne industry source said it's a "strong possibility" that Hill will wind up with the Orioles, perhaps as early as next week. The Orioles will likely give up a player to be named, who could be contingent on Hill's success in Baltimore...MORE

IT'S OFFICIAL, CUBS ADD BAKO (Cubs.com)
The Cubs signed catcher Paul Bako, who had been with the Reds, to a one-year, $725,000 contract. The deal was done a month ago, but Bako had to wait for the Cubs to open a roster spot before it was made official. Bako was no longer a fit for Cincinnati with the emergence of Ryan Hanigan and following the trade for veteran Ramon Hernandez...MORE

FOGG LANDS IN COLORADO (ColoradoRockies.com)
Rockies signed RHP Josh Fogg to a minor league contract and invited him to spring training. With Jeff Francis potentially starting the year on the DL, there could be room for Fogg at the back of the rotation. Fogg, 32, went 10-9 with a 4.94 ERA in 2007 and won several matchups with big-name pitchers. Fogg signed with the Reds last season and went 2-7 with a 7.58 ERA in 22 games, including 14 starts...MORE

MLB dodgers, giants, manny ramirez, red sox, jason varitek, brewers, ben sheets, cubs, ken hill, paul bako, rockies, josh fogg

Many Reds fans have turned the page on the 2008 season and started to tenuously root for the Bengals.  Those fans are missing some interesting times in Redsland; so much so that I will need two Reds Musings this week.  So tune back in on Wednesday for Part II.  In the meantime...

THE GOOD

• With the signing of 2008 first round draft pick, Yonder Alonso, the Reds have completed one of their more successful amateur signing periods in recent memory.  The triumpherant of Alonso and the two 16-year old Latin studs, Juan Dixon and Yorman Rodriguez, give Reds fans encouragement for... 2012.  Besides those three, the Reds also stole RHP Zach Stewart in the third round of the June draft.  Stewart, a closer at Texas Tech last Spring, has dominated Class A so far.  His combined stats at Dayton and Sarasota are:  33 IP, 36 K, 14 BB, 26 HA, 0 HR, and a 1.09 E.R.A.  Another quick starter is sixth rounder, Alex Buchholz, a second baseman from Delaware.  In Rookie Ball at Billings this season, he hit .400/ .477/ .615 in 130 ABs.  This haul dwarfs the previous two years' worth of prospects that Reds' Farm Director Chris Buckley put together.
  
  
• Jay Bruce has nine errors this season so far with the Reds.  This looks poor by almost any standard, but there are some positives.  Bruce has been credited for some errors on ground balls that he bobbled that let a runner score on a single from second base.  Are these really errors?  Secondly, Bruce has been credited with a few tough errors on dropped fly balls that Ken Griffey Jr. would never have come close to.  Reds pitchers have noticed the difference between Griffey and Bruce too.  Bronson Arroyo recently remarked about how much the Reds outfield defense has improved recently.
  
  
• Another part of that improved outfield defense is LF Chris Dickerson.  Dickerson is probably hitting well above his head at .329/ .427/ 695 in 82 AB (his minor league numbers do not come close to this), but his disciplined approach at the plate, his speed, and his defense do translate into a solid fourth outfielder at the Major League level.  He is not the impact player that the Reds so desperately need, but he is a solid contributor and every good baseball team need players like him.

THE BAD

• With the Reds long out of contention, logic says that the Reds should be experimenting with what they have to prepare for next year.  They have done that somewhat by giving Ryan Hannigan and Dickerson playing time.  But why aren't they putting Edwin Encarnacion in left field and Jeff Keppinger at third base to see if that may work?  Darryl Thompson should be pitching at this level now that he is healthy again.  Drew Stubbs should be thrown into centerfield to see if he can make contact with major league pitches (playing Corey Patterson serves absolutely no purpose besides bring Dusty Baker more abuse).  Josh Roenicke should be in the Reds bullpen to see if he can replace David Weathers.  This is extended Spring Training folks- let's take advantage!
  
  
• Tom Verducci of Sports Illustrated has come up a system to predict down years for young pitchers.  It is simple really.  He calls it the Year After Effect:  He finds major league pitchers 25- and- under who have pitched 30 or more innings than the previous year.  He eliminates the "artificially depressed" pitchers, such as those that had an injury and uses their college or professional high instead.  With that, he comes up with a group that he predicts will either get injured the next year or will have a big drop off the next year.  In February of 2008, he ran his numbers and came out with this group:  Ian Kennedy (NYY), Fausto Carmona (CLE), Ubaldo Jimenez (COL), Tom Gozelanny (PIT), Dustin McGowan (TOR), Chad Gaudin (OAK, now CHI), and Yovani Gallardo (MIL).  All but Jimenez have been seriously hurt at some time this season, but he was a total bomb the first half of the season.  Gaudin has not been seriously hurt, but his workload has been decreased with a switch to the bullpen at the start of the year.  It is amazing how accurate this system is at predicting upcoming struggles and injuries.  Who is a candidate for Verducci's Year After Effect in 2009?  You guessed it- Edinson Volquez.  The 25- year old pitched 144.67 innings last year and has already thrown 170 innings this year.  Other Reds pitchers:  Johnny Cueto- 161.33 in 2007 and 155 in 2008; Homer Bailey- 138.66 in 2006 and 148 in 2008.  Verducci would tell the Reds to shut down Voquez RIGHT NOW!

THE UGLY

• The White Sox are currently hitting Ken Griffey Jr. seventh and subbing in for him on defense late in the games.  He says that he is fine with all of this and loves his new team.  This reflects very poorly on Dusty Baker and further soils his reputation on dealing with and over- inflating the value of fading superstars.
  
  
• Corey Patterson rarely gets on base, but even when does, he is making even more outs on the bases.  He currently is tied for the lead in the Major Leagues in getting picked off of first base with nine.  Amazing.
  
  
• The Reds have been part of some of the best bet- the - house matchups so far this year in the Major Leagues.  The first came when Homer Bailey was struggling in late Spring.  He faced off against new Reds killer, Cole Hamels, and the Reds got pummeled.  That was possibly the lock- of- the- year in MLB.  Coming in a close second was the recent Josh Fogg start when he faced off against career Reds killer, Roy Oswalt.  The Reds had no shot that day, although Fogg did shut out the Astros for three innings before falling apart.

LATEST REDS' PODCAST:
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MLB reds, yonder alonso, juan dixon, yorman rodriguez, zach stewart, jay bruce, bronson arroyo, chris dickerson, ryan hannigan, edwin encarnacion, jeff keppinger, darryl thompson, drew stubbs, corey patterson, josh roenicke, edinson volquez, johnny cueto, homer bailey, ken griffey jr, dusty baker, josh fogg

This article took a vacation over the last two weeks because, quite honestly, it is not easy being a Reds fan.  I try not to be completely negative when it comes to the Reds, but they do not help me out much.  But then, Ken Griffey Jr. was traded and I can write an article again...

THE GOOD

• It is a miracle that someone took Griffey off of the Reds' hands and actually agreed to pay part of his salary.  The Chicago White Sox made one of the dumbest moves of the season (I call it "substraction by addition") when they traded living, breathing ballplayers for Griffey.  In his first game, the Chicago fans gave him a polite standing ovation.  Things changed quickly: the radio talk shows, the newspapers and the fans have hammered Griffey for his lack of hustle, his poor defense, his sulking, and his slow bat.  And he only has only played ten games.  If he continues his current pace with the White Sox (7-32, no extra base hits), who is going to sign him this off-season?
  
  
• The Reds have come to realize that they need to get a lot faster.  For years, Griffey and Adam Dunn have clogged up the bases, rarely taking an extra base on any single.  They could not run down any balls in the gap on defense.  They set the tone for the rest of the team by being as non- agressive as possible.  They were there to hit home runs, defy shifts, and loaf to first.  That attitude is gone and that cannot be underestimated.  The promotion to the Majors of Chris Dickerson, one of the most athletic players in their whole system, is a sign that management does not want the old attitude to linger.
  
  
• Keeping David Weathers and Jeremy Affeldt instead of trading them was not a bad idea IF the Reds can sign them to extentions.  If they both walk, then this line item falls a few inches downward in this article.

The Bad

• The Reds got zero for Dunn from the Diamondbacks.  We know they got minor league pitcher Dallas Buck.  It has also been reported that they got pitcher Micah Owings and minor league catcher Wilkin Castillo.  The best of three is probably Buck.  He was considered a first round pick for the 2006 draft until he hurt his arm pitching Oregon State to the College World Series title.  He dropped to the third round and immediately opted for arm rehab instead of surgery when doctors found a partial ligament tear in his elbow after the draft.  He has continued to try to pitch through the injury and has had few positive results.  That is the best prospect of the three.  Major league hitters' bats have told us that Owings is a fifth starter at best.  His numbers this year in Arizona:  104.66 IP, 104 HA, 41 BB, 87 Ks, 14 HR, and a 5.93 E.R.A.  And he may be hurt.  Castillo is considered the best catching prospect that Arizona has.  That is like saying that Curly was the smartest of the Three Stooges.  Castillo has no plus tools- he is very average at everything.  His Triple A line is worrisome: .254/ .305/ .358 in 358 at bats with 54 Ks and 24 BBs.  He is nowhere near a big league hitter because 1.  his strikeouts are double his walks- a consistent sign of failure for minor leaguers when they promoted to the highest level.  2.  A .305 on base percentage indicates a poor approach at the plate and no game plan at the plate.  3.  A .358 slugging percentage at any level is pathedic.  Even Griffey is higher than that this year.
  
  
• Jeff Keppinger is playing hurt and his numbers show it.  Since his return from the DL in mid June, his batting average has dropped from .324 to .262 and he rarely hits any extra base hits.  He broke his kneecap and this is probably preventing him from driving the ball.  My bet is that we hear about this during the off- season.
  
  
• Josh Fogg was terrible when the Reds signed him and he may be worse now.  It is amazing that he is still on the roster.  He will not be on anyone's roster a year from now.

The Ugly

• Dusty Baker's comments that the 2008 Reds are, "Wayne Krivsky's team, not Walt Jocketty's and not mine" are shameful.  Krivsky does deserve a lot of the blame for the Reds' poor performance, but so too does Baker.  Did Krivsky bat Corey Patterson 245 times, many times in the leadoff spot?  Did Krivsky hit Griffey third despite the statistics, the loafing, and the stubbornness to defy any shift?  Did Krivsky ruin Aaron Harang's arm in San Diego?  Did Krivsky try to start Matt Belisle, Scott Hatteberg and Fogg?  Or how about the appalling lack of energy that the Reds played with until the trade of Dunn this week?  Baker's inability to see his faults just makes matters worse and leaves very little hope for him in the future.  He needs to go ASAP.
  
  
• The Reds have gone down to the deadline with their 2008 first round pick, first baseman Yonder Alonso.  Viewed as a reach with the overall seventh pick, Alonso is wanting much more that last year's number seven pick (Matt LaPorta got just over $2 million from the Brewers).  Everyone knew Alonso's contract demands BEFORE the draft ($7 million signing bonus and a major league contract) so why did the Reds draft him?  Consensus had better players than Alonso on the board, players who had reasonable contract demands.  If the Reds do not sign him, this will be the third straight terrible first round draft pick for Reds Scouting Director Chris Buckley.  The Reds farm system has gone from stocked to below average under his watch.  Yes, some of it is natural with the graduation to the Majors of Jay Bruce, Johnny Cueto, and Joey Votto, but he has not replaced any of that talent.

MLB reds, ken griffey, adam dunn, chris dickerson, david weathers, jeremy affeldt, dallas buck, micah owings, wilkin castillo, jeff keppinger, josh fogg, dusty baker, corey patterson, aaron harang, matt belisle, scott hatteber, yonder alonso, jay bruce, johnny cueto, joey votto, chris buckley

The Reds will activate Aaron Harang in time to pitch for Sunday's game vs. the Astros. Edinson Volquez, who was originally scheduled to pitch on Sunday, will now open up the series in Pittsburgh on Tuesday night, according to the team's website.

Harang, who is returning from a strained forearm injury, looked good in his only rehab start Monday night at Louisville and showed no ill effects after throwing on the side at Great Amercian Ballpark on Wednesday.

"Everybody says it's fine for a while to get a couple of days off," Harang said of his time on the DL. "But once you've got to come to the field every day, being around the guys and not being able to go out there and help, it eventually gets to you." 

It is expected to make room for Harang that the Reds will send Homer Bailey back down to the minors. Bailey is 0-6, 7.93 in eight starts, not the numbers the team was hoping for. Still, they are not much worse than Josh Fogg's. It doesn't make sense to me to send the kid down and keep Fogg in the rotation, but Bailey is getting booed as hard as he is hit and maybe it is best for him to go back to the minors once again.

MLB reds, aaron harang, edinson volquez, josh fogg, homer bailey

With the Cincinnati Reds on break due to the All- Star Game, now is a good time to hand out midterm grades.  With the Reds four games under .500 and much closer to last than to first, most of the position players, pitchers and coaches are not on dean's list.  Evaluations were based on decisions made, actions, attitudes and of course, results.  Its too bad some of these guys cannot go to detention or study tables to pay some penance or at least, get better...

POSITION PLAYERS
C  David Ross:  Ross, a right handed hitter, has been much tougher on right handed pitchers (.283/ .424/ .509) than left handed ones (.240/ .350/ .320) which means that he should NOT be platooning with Paul Bako.  The odds of Dusty Baker knowing these stats is almost zero, and thus, the platoon continues even though Ross has thoroughly outplayed Bako.  Grade:  C

C  Paul Bako:  He was hot early, even hitting over .300 as late as May 14th.  Since then, he has plummetted to .217/ .297/ .355.  In other words, he might be in a worse slump than Corey Patterson and that says a ton.  He gets good marks for his handling of the young pitchers.  Grade:  D+

C  Javier Valentin:  He cannot hit for average (.229).  He cannot hit for power (.314 slugging with zero home runs).  He cannot run, throw or field.  What is he doing on this team?  Grade:  F

1B  Joey Votto:  Dusty Baker awarded the starting first baseman job to Scott Hatteberg out of Spring Training.  Hatteberg's slow start forced a change and Votto has responsed.  He is not another Sean Casey- that is a bad comparison.  Votto has more speed, range and power than Casey and nobody can be compared to the mayor's personality.  Grade:  B

2B  Brandon Phillips:  Phillips can go into serious slumps when he starts to try to inside- out everything to right field.  He ended the first half in such a slump.  Outside of those stretches, he continues to be a premier second baseman offensively and defensively.  (Will he be robbed of the sham known as the Gold Glove again?)  Grade:  B+

SS  Jeff Keppinger:  If he was not injured and did not start hitting into a lot of bad luck upon his return from the DL, he would probably be the team's MVP.  If Alex Gonzalez was with the team, Keppinger would have put him on the bench.  Grade:  B

SS  Jerry Hairston Jr.:  Dusty Baker and ex- GM Wayne Krivsky deserve some credit for finding Hairston, but not a lot because no other team wanted Hairston.  They were able to get him because he has been constantly injured in recent years.  He continues to show that health is his weakness as he has missed time.  When he is able to play and he is not put on the bench, he is one of the Reds' best players.  Grade:  B+ - not an A only because he missed a lot of the first month and because he landed on the DL.

3B  Edwin Encarnacion:  My esteemed colleague, Greg Shoemaker, noted that Encarnacion has batted .329 since June 9th with 15 of his 27 hits going for extra bases.  He seems to start slow every year and heat up in August.  He may be heating up a little early this year and he may have some pretty good numbers by the end of the season.  Grade:  B-

3B/1B  Andy Phillips:  Cut by the Reds and then later claimed by the Reds.  He has not played much.  Odds are that he will be cut again when Ryan Freel and/ or Jolbery Cabrera are removed from the DL  Grade:  INCOMPLETE

OF  Adam Dunn:  A Reds beat writer recently wrote that Dunn is having a bad season.  If you just look at his batting average, .228, this is an easy conclusion for the untrained.  But batting average can be deceiving and its too bad because it is the first stat many look at.  Better stats (i.e. stats proven as better indicators of productivity) include on base percentage and slugging.   Dunn's OBP is .380, way above the average.  Dunn's slugging percentage is .538, among the league leaders.  He will probably hit 45 home runs, draw 100 walks, score 100 runs, knock in 100 runs and still anger Reds fans.  Finally, all advanced defensive analysis sets have him improving to an ABOVE AVERAGE left fielder.  Grade:  B - He would have an A if he could hit better with runners in scoring position.

OF  Ken Griffey Jr.:  In a recent series with the Washington Nationals, Jeff Keppinger was batting (in the midst of his slump) late in the game with the scored tied.  The Reds had runners on second and third with one out.  The Nationals had a right handed reliever so they had a good matchup against Keppinger, himself a right hander.  The reliever threw four straight balls nowhere near the strike zone to load the bases to get to Ken Griffey Jr, a left hander.  The right handed reliever stayed in the game and struck out Griffey on five pitches.  That tells you how much Griffey's skills have deteriorated and that everyone in baseball knows it except Dusty Baker.  Grade:  D

OF  Jay Bruce:  Despite some struggles in June, Bruce has been one of the best players on the team because he can do so many different things for a baseball team.  He will eventually live up to the hype of being the #1 overall prospect in baseball.  The more he plays, the quicker that time will come.  Grade:  B

OF  Corey Patterson:  Reds fans have tried to understand how Patterson continues to see playing time.  There have been rumors that Patterson is dating Baker's daughter, that he has pictures of Baker and Madonna,  and that he is Baker's illegitimate son.  Sadly, the real reason he is playing is because Dusty Baker is the worst manager in the Majors.  Patterson is the second worst free-agent signing in Reds history behind only Eric Milton.  Grade:  F

ROTATION
SP  Edison Volquez:  If the All- Star keeps up his current pace, he could win the Cy Young Award this season.  Odds are that he will hit a wall somewhere around the 175 inning mark and fade fast.  Fantasy players should be aware of this.  Grade:  A

SP  Johnny Cueto:  He dazzled us, he struggled and got lit up, and then he made adjustments and has impressed us again with his talents.  The same will be said of Bruce once he figures out the adjustments.  Cueto will be a great one.  Grade:  B

SP  Aaron Harang:  (DL)  He was Bakerized and thus, his arm is hurt and his team has suffered.  If he is even close to previous years' numbers, the Reds are above .500 and close to third place.  Grade:  D

SP  Bronson Arroyo:  He has pitched better of late and I believe that will continue.  The reasoning?  His BABIP (batting average of balls put into play against him) is .362 which is extremely high.  This could mean a few things: 1.  he has been unlucky  2.  he has a poorous defense behind him and 3.  he has been hit hard.  Such a high average as .362 means that luck probably is a part of it.  Grade D+

SP  Josh Fogg:  His last two outings have been decent, but he has made a living out of brief glimpses of respectibility.  His stuff is so marginal that any small mistake is clobbered by just about any hitter.  He cannot be counted on at all and his stats (7.94 ERA, 1.49 WHIP, 24 Ks in 39.66 IP) back that up.  Grade:  F

SP  Homer Bailey:  He is the opposite of Fogg.  His last outing was impressive and that contrasted sharply with the rest of his year.  But his stuff is not marginal.  He was throwing his fastball in the mid 90s and that means everything to Bailey.  If he continues to throw at that speed, he can be a #3 starter.  Grade:  D

 
BULLPEN
Middle Relievers - Jeremy Affeldt, Bill Bray, Gary Majewski and Mike Lincoln:  All three have been effective.  Only Lincoln is a surprise as the other three are very talented.  None have eye- popping numbers.  Grade:  B

Setup Relievers - Jared Burton and David Weathers:  These two have been overworked by Baker.  Burton has already experienced some soreness and was shelved for a week.  Weathers will be saved when he is traded this month.  Both have been outstanding on the mound.  Grade:  A

Closer - Francisco Cordero:  Putting his salary aside (not part of the grading criteria), his contributions have been very solid.  He is 19 for 23 in save situations.  This is not among the elite closers, but is in the second tier.  He has also been a positive influence on the young Latin players namely Cueto and Volquez.  Grade B+

COACHING
Pitching Coach - Dick Pole:  He takes a lot of abuse from Reds fans and I am not sure that some of it does not stem from his name.  He deserves more credit.  The bullpen has improved since last year and if Todd Coffey's stats are subtracted from it, the bullpen could be described as impressive.  The preference to listen to instructor Mario Soto by the young Latin pitchers does not bode well for Pole.  Neither do the down years by Arroyo and Harang.  Grade: C

Hitting Coach - Brook Jacoby:  A real mixed bag here... It is hard to blame Jacoby for Griffey's dramatic loss of talent or the struggles of the rookies.  It is easy to blame him for Griffey's and Dunn's refusals to beat shifts through bunts and opposite field hitting.  It is easy to blame him for the team's awful bunting.  But what about the production of Hairston, Keppinger and Phillips?  Grade:  C

Manager - Dusty Baker:  Let us list some actions/ decisions from our first year manager:  continuously playing Corey Patterson, ignoring historical matchups of Reds hitters versus opposing pitchers and then lying about it, playing Patterson versus lefties at all (.143/ .189/ .143), pitching Harang in long relief on short rest and then starting him on short rest when he knew that he was already hurting (see last week's Reds Musings), trying to initially exclude the youngsters by giving starting jobs to Hatteberg, Patterson and Belisle, batting Griffey in the third hole, alternatively benching Hairston, Bruce, Keppinger and Encarnacion when Griffey should be on the bench, pinch hitting Griffey against lefties like he did against CC Sabathia when Valentin was available (Griffey is hitting .204/ .320/ .330 versus lefties), bunting way too much early in games, wrongfully platooning the catchers, ignoring stats altogether, and did I mention playing Corey Patterson?  Grade: F -  He has cost the Reds about six to seven games with all of the above.  At this rate, he will pass up Bob Boone and Ray Knight as the worst Reds manager in the last fifty years.

MLB reds, david ross, javier valentin, paul bako, joey votto, brandon phillips, edwin encarnacion, jeff keppinger, jerry hairston jr, andy phillips, adam dunn, ken griffey jr, jay bruce, corey patterson, edinson volquez, johnny cueto, aaron harang, bronson arroyo, josh fogg, homer bailey, jeremy affeldt, bill bray, gary majewski, mike lincoln, jared burton, david weathers, francisco cordero, dusty baker, brook jacoby, dick pole

Our guy Tim Dierkes from MLBTradeRumors.com discusses the pitching market as the trade deadline nears:

• Justin Duchscherer, Athletics.  Duke is leading all of baseball with a 1.78 ERA in 101 innings.  He is under team control for '09, and Billy Beane wants to wait until after the season to talk extension.  He'd be a very interesting trade chip.
• Zack Greinke, Royals.  Despite interest, the Royals "remain decidedly uninterested in moving Greinke," according to Ken Rosenthal.
• Derek Lowe, Dodgers.  The Phillies are interested, but the Dodgers are tied for first place right now.  Trading Lowe makes no sense.
• Edwin Jackson, Rays.  Jackson is starting to put it together, with a 3.93 ERA in 110 innings.  Trading Jackson or Andy Sonnanstine to make room for rookie David Price seems unlikely.
• Daniel Cabrera, Orioles.  Cabrera is having his best year, averaging over 6.5 innings per start by sacrificing his strikeout rate.  The O's control him through 2010, so they'll probably opt to hold onto him.
• Erik Bedard, Mariners.  He's currently on the DL with a stiff shoulder, but the Phillies could still pursue him.  He's under team control through '09, but the Mariners won't get anything close to the package they gave up for him.
• Gil Meche, Royals.  Meche and the Royals have been very clear - he's staying in Kansas City.
• Jason Marquis, Cubs.  Marquis is signed at almost $10MM for '09, so the Cubs might have to eat salary to move him.
• Roy Oswalt, Astros.  The Astros' ace has a full no-trade clause and is expected to stay.  He's signed through 2011.  Oswalt has, however, been scouted by several clubs.
• Oliver Perez, Mets.  The Mets are only two games out, quieting the rumors for now.
• Joe Blanton, Athletics.  Trading Blanton as his ERA approaches 5.00 doesn't seem wise.
• Jarrod Washburn, Mariners.  He's been decent since June. That's a nice development for Lee Pelekoudas, who might be able to unload the $10.35MM owed to Washburn in '09.
• Kevin Millwood, Rangers.  His groin is bothering him again, plus the Rangers might not be willing to sell.
• Vicente Padilla, Rangers.  Padilla is on the DL with a neck strain, driving his value down further after a couple of rough starts.
• A.J. Burnett, Blue Jays.  You know the story with Burnett - enigmatic pitcher with a dangerous opt-out after the season.  Some team seems likely to gamble on him for two months.
• Brett Myers, Phillies.  Myers does not want to be traded, nor is a deal likely.
• Paul Byrd, Indians.  He's been awful since the beginning of June, bringing his ERA to 5.47.  Can't be much of a market for him.
• Homer Bailey, Reds.  His value is down, though the Reds will give him a spot start Sunday.  Wasn't long ago that he was Baseball America's #9 prospect in the game.
• Bronson Arroyo, Reds.  His ERA is near 6.00 after 19 starts.  It'd be closer to 4.50 if you take out a pair of one-inning thrashings, but is it fair to do that?  He's signed through 2010, and the Phillies might be interested.
• Livan Hernandez, Twins.  Would an NL team take him on? Livan had a run of four solid starts until the recent Boston beating.  Could be a DFA candidate.
• Josh Fogg, Reds.  The Reds aren't too keen on Fogg, keeping him in the minors even after he was healthy.  He could be had for a song.

MLB justin duchscherer, zack greinke, derek lowe, edwin jackson, daniel cabrera, erik bedard, gil meche, jason marquis, roy oswalt, oliver perez, joe blanton, jarrod washburn, kevin millwood, vicente padilla, a.j. burnett, brett myers, paul byrd, homer bailey, bronson arroyo, livan hernandez, josh fogg

He didn't factor in the decision on Saturday, but Josh Fogg's return from the so-called disabled list was a great success. He allowed one run on six hits in six innings in his first start back from a rehabilitation assignment to ease lumbar back spasms.

The team signed Fogg this off-season and paid him $1 million to be their fifth starter. However, after a slow start Fogg was pulled from the rotation and placed as a long reliever where he got little to no work. The team gave him a second chance against the Braves back in late May, but Fogg got shelled in the outing and mysteriously was put on the DL with "back spasms".

Fogg told reporters last week that he has felt for fine for about a month, approximately the same amount time he spent on the shelf.

The right-hander entered the start against the Nationals with a whopping 9.85 ERA. Fogg was officially reinstated from the 15-day disabled list Saturday to fill the roster spot vacated by Norris Hopper, who is having season-ending "Tommy John" surgery on his right elbow Tuesday. In five rehab starts he went 2-1 with a 2.50 ERA for Single-A Sarasota and Triple-A Louisville.

"It was a very good performance out of Josh. It looked like that time going down and the extra training helped him. He was sharp with his breaking stuff, and they're a pretty good hitting club over there," Reds manager Dusty Baker told the Cincinnati Enquirer.

The Reds have tried Fogg, Matt Belisle, Homer Bailey, and Daryl Thompson in the No. 5 spot in the rotation. While there has been brief glimpses of hope, the position has been a disaster. Ironically, as the team heads to the All-Star Break they are right back where they started with Fogg once again taking the ball every fifth day. 

MLB reds, josh fogg, matt belisle, homer bailey, daryl thompson, dusty baker

After allowing seven runs on 11 hits against Florida in his last outing, Reds' ace Aaron Harang turned in his best performance of the season on Friday night as the Reds beat the Red Sox 3-1 at Great American Ballpark.  Harang (3-9) gave up just one run on four hits with no walks and seven strikeouts through seven solid innings. It marked the first time in four starts that Harang made it past 5 1/3 innings.

"I wasn't aggressive and attacking the zone," Harang told the team's website about his recent struggles. "It was more nibbling than anything. It really hurt me, because I'd fall behind and I'd have to come back and throw pitches that were around the plate. I felt great tonight. From the get-go out of the bullpen, I felt like I had a little bit more there. I'm very happy with how things worked out."

There's no doubt that Harang's record is a bit misleading, as he's often fallen victim to little or no run support. The Reds have scored an average of just three runs in his 15 starts. It was pretty clear watching the right-hander over the past month or so that he was pressing, feeling as if though he needed to do it all and I must admit it is hard to blame him.

Many still point to the 18-inning game in which Harang worked five innnings of relief and then due to mismanagement (yeah that's a stab at Dusty Baker) was forced to come back on short rest despite the fact the team could have pitched Josh Fogg (who was replacing Belisle in rotation) and let Harang get the needed rest. It's all in the rear view mirrow now, but let's hope Harang can use Friday night as a stepping stone into the second half of the season. 

Fantasy Baseball, MLB reds, aaron harang, josh fogg, dusty baker

Going beyond the dribble of the day to day, useless Reds "news"...

• As I said last week, the decision to start Aaron Harang on Thursday, May 29th on three days rest may turn out to be one of the worst decisions of the season.  Josh Fogg had full rest and was already promoted to the starting rotation again so why not start him on that Thursday?  Harang has not been the same since this fateful day.
  
  
• Brandon Phillips is swinging the bat well when he is spreading the ball all over the field, particularly to left.  Presently, everything is being softly inside- outted to right field and he is slumping badly.  When he starts pulling the ball again, he will produce again.
  
  
• The loss of Jerry Hairston Jr. to injury means that the leadoff spot is a mystery.  Statisticians would love to see Joey Votto be moved there, but you can see Dusty Baker yearning to get Corey Patterson and his staggering .239 OBP into the one hole.  Baker would have to sit Jay Bruce, Adam Dunn or Ken Griffey Jr. in order to do so, but I would not be surprised if this happens a few times over the next week.
  
  
• Fantasy Baseball Alert:  anytime a brand new pitcher starts against the Reds, pick him up and start him.  At some point, Reds management needs to examine why pitchers such as Mitch Boggs and Ryan Tucker continue to beat the Reds.  Is there a lack of minor league scouting?  Are their reports not requested for these games?  Are their reports not used by the players and the coaches for these games?  Something has to change.
  
  
• Francisco Cordero does not look like a $12 million closer.  He has not looked as dominating as Brad Lidge and Billy Wagner and others this year.  He looks more like a second or third tier closer who is going to be successful about 75% of the time.
  
  
• Daniel Harrera looks like a Major League reliever.  His stuff is nasty.  I would not send him back to Louisville when Gary Majewski returns.
  
  
• The Reds' performance against the Florida Marlins on Sunday was one of the worst team efforts of all time.  When a manager claims that his guys are still fighting and still care and then go out and play like that, then the manager loses all credibility and its not even his fault!  I have no evidence to back this up, but it seems that the Reds' worst efforts always come on Sundays.
  
  
• The first round selection of Yonder Alonso was a complete surprise to me.  As someone who follows the MLB draft closely, I thought for sure that the Reds would take University of Missouri RHP Aaron Crow or University of Georgia SS Gordon Beckham with their first round selection.  Either one of those two satisfy a huge Reds need and they will probably both be in the majors by the end of the 2010 season.  Alonso is not that much better than either one of them (many say that he is not better) and plays a position currently manned by Joey Votto, so was it worth it to pick him?  Probably not, but I do like him.  Besides reminding me of Popeye, I like that fact that he can hit, hit for power and get on base.  He will be a major leaguer soon and he will be productive.  I do worry about his success versus lefthanders this year, but that was something new.  He had not had that problem before.
  
  
• Congratultions Ken Griffey Jr.!!!

MLB reds, aaron harang, josh fogg, brandon phillips, brandon phillips, jerry hairston, jay bruce, adam dunn, ken griffey, francisco cordero, gary majewski, daniel harrera, gary majewski, yonder alonso

Hindsight may be twenty- twenty, but common baseball sense is twenty- twenty also.  The Cincinnati Reds are ten games out of first place in early June because of five awful decisions that were hailed as awful decisions AT THE TIME THEY WERE MADE and not just now.  These five decisions, made mainly by ex- General Manager Wayne Krivsky and current Manager Dusty Baker, have cost the Reds at least ten games and probably around thirteen games in the NL Central standings this season.  They are, in order:

1.  Drafting Drew Stubbs in the first round of the 2006 MLB amateur draft instead of Tim Lincecum.  Stubbs, who turns 24 later this year, is hitting .265/ .381/ .402 with a strikeout every 3.4 at bats at High- A ball currently.  Lincecum is the ace of the San Francisco Giants.  This decision has cost the Reds six to eight wins alone this year and will continue to haunt them as long as Lincecum is healthy.

2.  Hiring Dusty Baker as Manager of the Reds.  Baker's habits still have not changed since his days in Chicago and San Francisco and this needs some explaining:

• Many people are giving Baker credit for playing the young kids like Jay Bruce, Edison Volquez, Johnny Cueto, Joey Votto and Homer Bailey and injecting talent, enthusiasm and all- around better play into the team.  This is not exactly true.  Baker was forced into doing this because he tried, as hard as he could, to kick the tires on some veterans and get production out of them before turning to the young guns.  Votto was not given a chance until Scott Hatteberg showed he had nothing left.  Baker turned to Volquez, Cueto and eventually, Bailey because his preferred duo of Matt Belisle and Josh Fogg failed miserably.  Bruce did not get a chance until Corey Patterson, Baker's ultimate favorite, did his best Paul Householder impression.  Baker had no alternative, but to play the youngsters.
  
  
• Baker continues to draw up one of the worst batting lineups in the Major Leagues.  Patterson should not be on a Major League roster, much less be batting near the top of a lineup.  Ken Griffey Jr. is the most unproductive #3 hitter in the NL by OPS.  Adam Dunn and Votto, two of Baker's best OBP hitters are hitting in the fifth, sixth or seventh slots.
  
  
• Aaron Harang was asked to pitch on Thursday, May 29th, on three days rest after a dominating relief performance in the 18- inning affair in San Diego.  Baker knew Josh Fogg was starting later on that weekend.  Why not start Fogg on Thursday?  He was fully rested.  Instead, Harang got rocked that Thursday and his next outing against Philadelphia.  Let's keep a close eye on Harang's numbers since this decision and a closer eye on the health of his arm.
  
  
• If Volquez throws more than 120 pitches in a game again, the Reds fans should jump the walls at GABP and stage a sit- in in the outfield.

3.  Signing Patterson to a $3.5 million deal to play centerfield and bat leadoff.  This coincides with the previous point on Baker.  Watching Baker put Patterson into the lineup and bat him in the first or second slots is like watching a smoker trying to quit.  Everyone in the world knows its a bad idea, but he just keeps coming back to it.  Seriously, it is mindnumbing and painful to watch Patterson bat.  Pitchers use his aggressiveness against him and rarely throw him any pitches over the plate.  Why not?  He swings at anything in the same zip code so why put it over the plate?  He is putting together one of the worst seasons of all time (for a player who somehow plays regularly) at .200/ .240/ .352 in 145 at bats.  (Quick note:  he went 0-4 tonight in his return to the Reds so those numbers are now worse.)

4.  Believing Fogg or Belisle could help at all.  Many people who are hammering Fogg and Belisle now said that they were good, cheap, gambles back in March.  Yes, they are cheap, but I have always maintained that cheap does not mean low risk.  These two took roster spots of better players and while they did so, cost the Reds three to five games.  Fogg was available in early Spring for a reason (the same could be said of Patterson).  Belisle could not be given away in any trades.  They were negatives and it was easy to forecast back in March because neither has any room to make mistakes when he is pitching.  If either is off just slightly with a pitch, they get hammered.

5.  Signing shortstop Alex Gonzalez to a three- year, $14 million contract with a mutual option for a $6 million fourth year.  It is very possible that Gonzalez may not play at all in 2008.  Even if he does, who will be benched as a result?  Keppinger (when he returns)?  Jerry Hairston Jr.?  Edwin Encarnacion?  None of them deserve that and Gonzalez is now buried on the depth chart.  In 2007, he did not show the outstanding glove that he is known for.  Now that he has a knee injury, he may be slowed down even more.  This free agent signing was not as bad as the Eric Milton deal, but nothing is going to come from it.

These five deals all have Krivsky's fingerprints on them.  As a result of some of them, he has been fired.  It is easy to say that his firing is justified in hindsight, but many of us also said that these moves were terrible at the time.  I am not always right, so I take the time to gloat now.  Hopefully, one of these above moves will turn and make me look bad, but I doubt it.

MLB reds, dusty baker, wayne krivsky, drew stubbs, jay bruce, edinson volquez, johnny cueto, homer bailey, joey votto, corey patterson, josh fogg, matt belisle, aaron harang, alex gonzalez, jerry hairston, edwin encarnacion