Fantasy: Buy Low Candidates

18. April 2013  - Published by Dan Clasgens

Here’s a look at five players that could prove to be great buy low candidates…

JOEY VOTTO
– The Reds first basemen finally broke a 54-game homerless streak a few days ago, but many are still balking at his power numbers.  Through the first two-plus weeks of the year Votto has totaled just 3 RBI. Those stats aren’t telling the whole story though. He has drawn 22 walks and currently boasts an eye-popping 0.521 OBP.

JOSH HAMILTON
– Moving to a new team/lineup always raises questions about what the fantasy impact could be. So far this season it has led to slow returns for Hamilton in Anaheim. The slugger has hit a pair of homers and driven in eight runs through his first 55 at bats as an Angel, but his 18 strikeouts and .200 BA have some owners frustrated.

JASON HEYWARD – The 23-year old has gotten out of the gate slowly and seems to be lost in a red-hot Atlanta lineup.  He’s batting just .127 with 2 HR and 7 RBI thus far, but it is only a matter of time before the youngster turns around.  Heyward is too talented and surrounded by too much talent to continue to post such mediocre numbers.

BUSTER POSEY – Despite my warning for owners not to overpay for the reigning NL MVP in their drafts/auctions leading into the season, now may be the time to make a run at the C/1B option. Posey has gotten out of the gate slowly with just 10 hits thru his first 47 AB (.217) and is still looking for his first long ball of the season.

MATT CAIN
- Through three starts the Giants’ ace is still searching for his first victory and his 5.94 ERA and 1.647 WHIP has fantasy owners fretting. However, he did register a two quality starts so the numbers are slightly lopsided. Expect Cain to still finish as a top 15-20 SP in fantasy this season when the dust settled.

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Fantasy Value Meter: Angels

26. March 2013  - Published by James Adams

Undervalued - OF Josh Hamilton: The move to the Angels line up puts Hamilton in an ideal situation, bringing him protection in many forms (Trout, Trumbo, Pujols).  Yes the Texas line up was good, but this could be hall of fame type protection.  Also remember that Hamilton was the hands down pick for MVP about half way through last season, and had he not missed a few games there would have been no triple crown winner as Hamilton finished with one fewer than Cabrera’s 44.  Count on another huge year from Hamilton and expect him to be a top five outfielder closer to the likes of McCutchen and Kemp as opposed to the Gonzalez, Upton, or Bautista tier he’s being taken in.  Don’t forget that Mike Scioscia likes to run like a national league manager and Hamilton could even break double digits in the steal column for you this year.

Overvalued - OF Mike Trout: After just 682 big league at bats seems a little early to anoint Mike Trout the best player in baseball, or for that matter even one of the top five.  Trout’s numbers were amazing last season, but 30 home runs will be repeated this season as Trout only had 22 in his three minor league seasons combined.  It is also hard to ignore the drop off late in the season after Trout’s torrid July, and of course the dreaded and all too reliable sophomore slump.  Trout led many teams to fantasy titles in 2012, but was it more to do with the numbers themselves or the fact that Trout came cheaply?  We're not saying that Trout can’t ever be in Cooperstown some day, nor am we saying that Trout isn’t even a first round pick we just like a little more track record when taking a guy with the first few selections.

Sleeper - C Chris Iannetta: A few years ago Iannetta was one of the top picks at the catching position and so far this spring he’s showing some of those abilities again.  Iannetta is hitting .381 through his first 42 spring at bats and is getting on base nearly 45 percent of the time.  Iannetta has always gotten on base well, and in this line up that could lead to a lot of runs scored, not to mention that Iannetta is likely to see runners on base as often as any other back stop assuming he can play near 100 games.  We may never see the 2008 Iannetta again, but anything close would be a huge bargain for the price of the 2013 version, which shouldn’t be more than a dollar in auction leagues.

Bust - RP Ryan Madson: Madson is listed as the team’s closer on the Angel’s official website and many owners are treating him as such, yet he is expected to begin the year on the disabled list.  The Angels are expecting to win the World Series this year, and I believe they signed Madson as much for the playoff push and the post season as anything else.  Couple that with the fact that Ernesto Frieri was very capable last season converting 23 of 26 save chances while striking out 98 batters in 66 innings.  Add in the fact that Madson is just now a year removed from his injury and that makes Ryan Madson a big bust in 2013.  Madson may eventually claim the closer’s role in Los Angles/Aneheim but even if he does will Scioscia go to him on back to back days?  If you do grab Madson you better own Ernesto Frieri too.

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Hamilton's Tear Epic

13. May 2012  - Published by Dan Clasgens

Texas Rangers outfielder Josh Hamilton has unprecedented week of baseball. Entering Sunday night’s game with the Angels Hamilton has blasted nine homeruns in his last six games.

ESPN.com has a great breakdown of the numbers from a historic prospective:

--His 18 homers have tied Cy Williams of the 1923 Phillies for the most all-time through 34 team games.

--With nine home runs in his past six games, Hamilton is just one shy of the MLB record for homers in a six-game span set by Frank Howard with 10 in 1968, according to the Elias Sports Bureau.

--Hamilton’s 18 home runs this season are five more than the entire San Diego Padres team and one fewer than the Chicago Cubs and Minnesota Twins.

So what has been the biggest reason for the sudden power charge?

It’s hard to pinpoint but the website suggests that his improved ability to hit the breaking ball has been an enormous factor, “Hamilton is hitting .420 against breaking balls in 2012, a dramatic increase over his .260 average against such pitches a year ago. And his slugging percentage against curveballs and sliders is .860, dwarfing his 2011 mark of .468.”

One thing is for sure as a Reds’ fan, trading him is becoming more painful by the minute.

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Flashback: Josh Hamilton HR Derby

8. July 2011  - Published by Dan Clasgens

It will be hard to forget Josh Hamilton's record 28 longballs in the 2008 Home Run Derby in the final year at Yankee Stadium:

 

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Hamilton Among Early Injuries

13. April 2011  - Published by Dan Clasgens

Early injuries are taking their toll on MLB and fantasy teams alike…

OF Josh Hamilton (TEX) – The reigning AL MVP will miss 6-8 weeks with a non-displaced fracture of humerus bone in his right shoulder suffered in Tuesday’s loss to the Tigers. Hamilton is one of the best hitters in the game when healthy, but staying injury-free has been a struggle during his four-year stint in the majors. He’s only averaged 117 games played during his short career and will be hard-pressed to meet that number this season.

3B Evan Longoria (TB) – Longoria was one of many big leaguers to suffer an oblique injury early in the 2011 campaign. He was originally expected to miss three weeks when he went on the 15-day DL back on April 3, so a return is nearing. He has played in all but 14 games over the past two seasons and produced big numbers in that span. Big things are still ahead this season for the Rays’ most dangerous bat.

3B Ryan Zimmerman (WAS) – The Nats’ slugger went on the DL April 10 due to an abdominal strain. He originally suffered the injury during spring training and aggravated in the first week of the regular season. Zimmerman has played in at least 142 games in four of the past five years, so durability has not been a concern. Expect a return to the lineup soon and Zimmerman will be ready to contribute some big numbers.

SS Rafael Furcal (LA) – The oft-injured Dodgers’ shortstop finds himself on the disabled list once again.  The thumb injury will not require surgery, but the team is still expecting the veteran to be sidelined four to six weeks. After a stellar debut with Los Angeles in 2006, Furcal has struggled to stay healthy as he missed 226 games over the last four seasons. The Dodgers and fantasy owners knew what they were getting into when they re-signed them and should’ve planned accordingly.

RP Brad Lidge (PHI) – With one of the best rotations in baseball history, the Phillies are poised for a deep run in 2011, but they’ll have to figure out how they are close games out. Closer Brad Lidge found his way back to the DL due to a shoulder injury. The team expects Lidge to be out until the All-Star break and plans to shut him down completely for 3-6 weeks before starting him in a throwing program. Look for veteran JoJose Contrerasto work as the Phillies’ primary closer in the meantime.

COMPLETE INJURY REPORT (Rotoworld.com)

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Hamilton Named AL MVP

23. November 2010  - Published by Dan Clasgens

Winning NFL picks, odds and power rankings all from our friends at Doc's Sports Service.

Texas Rangers’ outfielder Josh Hamilton was named the American League’s Most Value Player on Tuesday, beating out Miguel Cabrera of the Tigers and the Yankees’ Robinson Cano.

Hamilton won the award despite being limited to just 133 games due to injury. That is just another indicator on how great his stats his were.

He led the majors with a .359 batting average and a .633 slugging percentage to go with 32 home runs and 100 RBI, lifting the Rangers to a postseason trip that turned into the franchise's first World Series appearance.

Hamilton received 22 of 28 first-place votes with Cabrera receiving five. Cano did not receive any first-place votes, but Blue Jays’ slugger Jose Bautista, who led the majors with 54 home runs, finished fourth and received the other first-place vote.

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Reds Castoffs Prove Valuable

24. October 2010  - Published by Dan Clasgens

As if it is wasn’t painful enough to see my favorite team, the Cincinnati Reds, get swept out of their first playoff series in 15 years, now it get watch two outfielders the team parted ways with go on to win the NLCS and ALCS MVP Awards.

Check out these postseason numbers:

JOSH HAMITLON, TEXAS RANGERS (ALCS MVP)
Hamilton hit .350 with four home runs in the series, posting a staggering 1.536 OPS. He also stole three bases and played his usual outstanding defense in center field. Despite missing nearly the entire month of September, Hamilton also appears to have the AL MVP Award locked up.

CODY ROSS, SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS (NLCS MVP)
The right fielder posted a .324 average in 10 postseason games with four homers and seven RBI. Three of those longballs and seven of those RBI came in NCLS to help lift the Giants to their first World Series since 2002.

Final Take: We always knew that Hamilton had the potential to be Mickey Mantle. I still have questions about his durability though. While I’d be hard pressed to say I would make that trade (Hamilton for Edinson Volquez and Daniel Ray Herrera) again, it made sense at the time and the sky is still the limit for Volquez. Ross never really got a chance to play here as the Reds were going through a major roster shakeup. Then new GM Wayne Krivksy acquired 34 different players during the 2006 season. The fact the Reds gave Ross, who was out of options up, for cash makes it tougher to swallow than losing Hamilton in my eyes.

MORE READING: What if Hamilton, Ross Remained Reds? (BleacherReport.com)

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Fantasy Baseball: Watch List

20. May 2010  - Published by Dan Clasgens

Here are some players that are worth considering acquiring...

OF Josh Hamilton (TEX) – After struggling most of the season, the Rangers’ outfielder has his average up to .280 and now has eight homers. Manager Ron Washington recently dropped him to the fifth spot in the order and Hamilton has responded by going 4-for-8 in two games.

SP John Ely (LA) – The Dodgers are red hot right now and the 24-year old right hander has been a big reason why. He’s coming off his most impressive start of the season in Monday’s win over the Astros. His control has been the biggest factor in success with just three walks in 25 2/3 innings of work. 

SP J.A. Happ (PHI) – A forearm strain forced last year’s rookie sensation to the DL in April, but after a promising bullpen session on Monday the team is now targeting a June return. He’s currently available in 30 percent of the leagues on CBSSports.com, but won’t be for long.

3B Aramis Ramirez (CHC) – Through his first 150 at bats of the 2010 season Ramirez is batting just .167 with 4 HR and 20 RBI. It may be the perfect time to buy low on the Cubs’ slugger as a bounce back seems inevitable.

OF Angel Pagan (NYM) – Once considered simply a fill-in for Carlos Beltran (expected back in June), Pagan has began to emerge as legitimate fantasy option. Over his last 13 games he’s batting .340 (17-for-50) and will likely remain in the Mets’ outfield mix even after Beltran returns.

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Berkman Means The Most

8. August 2008  - Published by Dan Clasgens

From HardballTimes.com:  

Win Shares. Invented by Bill James. Win Shares is a very complicated statistic that takes all the contributions a player makes toward his team’s wins and distills them into a single number that represents the number of wins contributed to the team, times three. The website has tweaked James’ original formula somewhat.

Win Shares Above Bench, or Baseline. WSAB is a refined approach to Win Shares, in which each player's total Win Shares are compared to the Win Shares an average bench player would have received, given that player's time at bat, on the mound or in the field.

This is an important adjustment to Win Shares, as we discovered during the 2003-2004 offseason. The bench player approach is explained in this article. It is essentially 75% of Expected Win Shares for all players except Starting Pitchers, for whom it is 60% of Expected Win Shares.

With all that said here there five most valuable players:

  • Lance Berkman - WSAB = 18
  • Albert Pujols -  WSAB = 16
  • Ian Kinsler - WSAB = 16
  • Justin Morneau - WSAB = 16
  • Josh Hamilton - WSAB = 16
COMPLETE LIST

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Final Take: All-Star Game

16. July 2008  - Published by Dan Clasgens

Major League Baseball nearly had another debacle on its hands Tuesday night as the All-Star game as the game went 15 innings.  Both teams were running out of pitchers and with home field advantage on the line everyone was just waiting for Bud Selig to call the game again.

I would hate to be a team that was a contender am have my guys out their jeopardizing themselves. Doesn't it seem to make sense to expand the All-Star rosters?

Brad Lidge, who NL manager Clint Hurdle tabbed as the team's closer, threw over 100 warm-up pitches in various bullpen sessions, before coming into the game in the 15th inning.

Lidge, 20-for-20 in save opportunities for the Phillies and the only full-time closer in the NL who has not blown a save this season, warmed up in the bullpen in the top of the ninth, 10th, 11th, 12th, 13th and 14th innings only to sit down after the NL failed to take the lead.

Each time the NL didn't score, Hurdle called in another pitcher and told his closer to sit down.

"All of my pals kept getting into the game," Lidge told the Courier Post. "We had the Rockies bullpen catcher and coach and me. That was it."

Luckily the game ended on Michael Young’s sacrifice fly to give the American League a 4-3 victory in a 4-hour, 50-minute marathon, the longest All-Star Game in history.

The game has lost its luster for sure, but it still is professional sport's best All-Star event.


OTHER TAKES

--I was disappointed that Edinson Volquez gave up the bomb to J.D. Drew, it makes it hard to argue the guy should've started when he blows the save. I just hope it doesn't have a hangover effect.

--Has anybody every had a worse three minutes in All-Star game history. Dan Uggla hit into an inning-ending double play in the top half of the 10th inning with a runner on third. Then he followed it up with two errors to lead off the bottom half of the inning. Lucky for him Aaron Cook pitched out of the jam.

--Will the NL ever win again? It is completely opposite of when I was kid when the senior circuit use to dominate. The AL is now up to 12 straight victories.

--Man George Steinbrenner is not looking good. I was raised to hate that man, but I don't want to see him like that. The end is near for Mr. Steinbrenner. 

--Apparently the NL was prepared to call in Clay Counsil, Josh Hamilton's 71-year old Home Run Derby pitcher, if the game were to go to a 16th inning. Counsil was a bit tired though after giving up 32 bombs the night before to 'The Natural'.

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