INSIDE THE NUMBERS
After amassing 700 yards and a whopping 10 touchdowns on 58 receptions in 2010, Marcedes Lewis turned out to be a huge fantasy bust a year ago. Not only did he catch 19 less balls for 460 yards, the Jaguars tight end failed to find the end zone in 2011. Part of the problem can be pinned on the Jaguars’ woes at quarterback, but Lewis simply was not a factor with just two games over 50 yards receiving. The arrival of Mike Mularkey and a new system should help, but more consistency at QB will be the deciding factor on his fantasy value.

SCHEDULE
The Vikings and Colts in their first five games should help make for some decent early numbers, but three tough defenses like the Texans, Bengals, and Bears also before the bye will test the team’s offensive line.  Their non-conference matchups against the NFC North teams, arguably football’s best division top to bottom, aren’t going to provide much relief. The good news for the fantasy playoffs is all three of their games are in the state of Florida, so there will be no wintery elements to deal with.

STUD
Maurice Jones-Drew led all NFL rushers in both yards (1,606) and carries (343) a year ago on his way to finishing as top five fantasy running back. Despite the workload, Jones-Drew has proven to be extremely durable. Through his seven-year career he’s managed to play in at least 14 games each season. The team’s improved weapons in the passing game should help keep defenses a bit more honest and allow MJD the ability to once again be productive. Assuming his holdout doesn’t drag on too long, Jones-Drew should continue to be viewed as a first-round RB.

DUD
Despite being the Jaguars’ leading receiver a year ago, Mike Thomas finds himself buried on the team’s depth chart and a total off-season remake of their wide receiver corps. At best he’ll be the team’s third receiver and after only garnering 44 receptions for 415 yards and just one touchdown as the team’s No. 1 receiving option, he won’t bring much value to the table.  Barring injury, owners should avoid Thomas altogether entering 2012.

SLEEPER
There’s never been a question surrounding the talent of rookie wide receiver Justin Blackmon. His fantasy potential hit a minor hurdle when he landed in Jacksonville with 5th overall pick in April’s draft. It wasn’t a good sign when he was arrested for a second DUI in June. However, that coupled with his brief holdout and the Jaguars’ weak passing attack has his ADP at 96.03 as the 34th overall receiver going off the board. It comes with risk, but a mid-round stab at the talented rookie could pay big dividends.

NEW ADDITIONS
Desperately seeking to breathe some life into their anemic passing game, the Jaguars signed free agents Laurent Robinson and Lee Evans this offseason. Robinson parlayed a career in Dallas into a 5-year, $32 million deal and will be counted on to produce. He caught 54 balls for 854 yards and 11 touchdowns for Dallas a year ago. At 31, Evans is coming off back-to-back injury riddled seasons and has appears to have lost a step. A reunion with Mularkey, the coach that drafted him will help, but it may not be enough. Robinson is a WR4 at best in deeper formats and owners should take a wait-and-see approach with Evans.

POSITION BATTLE
Second-year quarterback Blaine Gabbert has started training camp as the team’s starter, but veteran Chad Henne was brought in to give the team an option if the young passer’s development staggers.  Gabbert’s rookie campaign was awful as he completed 50.8 percent of his passes for 2,214 yards and 12 TD’s, but he was picked off 11 times and fumbled a league-high 14. The team is holding out hope that Gabbert was another bust, but don’t hold your breath. Henne will be starting at some point and his presence will upgrade the value of everyone in the passing game.

BENCH BUILDER
While Rashad Jennings is a natural handcuff for MJD owners, he could provide nice depth for any fantasy team. Even if Jones-Drew is doing his thing, the team is expected to reduce his workload which will lead to more opportunities for Jennings to do some damage. In PPR leagues his value is slightly higher. Look for him to be a RB4 in deeper leagues and a RB5 option in any format. If Jones-Drew is out of the mix he could become a potential weekly starting option.

Fantasy Football, NFL 2012 nfl preview, jacksonville jaguars, marcedes lewis, maurice jones-drew, mike thomas, justin blackmon, laurent robinson, lee evans, blaine gabbert, chad henne, rashad jennings

The off-season hype in the Buffalo passing game has centered around the arrival of Terrell Owens. However, it is fellow wideout Lee Evans that will provide the better value.

The latest Average Draft Position (ADP) reports in leagues drafted on MyFantasyLeague.com have Owens going off the board as the 14th wideout selected and somewhere between the 38th and 39th overall selection (Round 4 in 12-team leagues). Meanwhile, Evans is being taken as the 25th receiver somewhere near pick 70 (end of Round 6 in 12-team leagues).  In many formats, Owens will be taken even earlier.

While I give a thousand reasons to stay away from T.O., this post is more about why to like Evans. Here are a couple of factors to consider:

SINGLE COVERAGE
Evans hasn't had a receiver opposite of him that warranted much consideration by opponents since Eric Moulds departed Buffalo in 2005. During the two years he had Moulds in the mix, Evans found his way to the end zone 16 times. Meanwhile, over the past two seasons he's only scored eight times. Owens' arrival will force teams to place single coverage on him and allow Evans more chances to make big plays.

IMPROVED QUARTERBACK PLAY
Trent Edwards still needs some more development  before being considered a legitimate NFL starting quarterback, but he shows promise and is a huge upgrade over JP Losman (no longer with team).

SOLID RUNNING GAME
The Bills offensive line is improving and the running attack is viable. Once Marshawn Lynch returns from his three-game suspension and rejoins Fred Jackson and newcomer Dominic Rhodes, the backfield will demand attention and open up the passing attack even more.

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FINAL TAKE: Evans has always struggled with consistency, but has proven time and time again he's capable of putting up some huge days. For where he's falling, the value couldn't be better. Evans should be viewed as a low-end option WR2 in deeper leagues and a stellar WR3. He possesses top 10 potential though and would be more than worth a 6th round pick.

*Follow GSI on TWITTER for more fantasy takes and player updates.

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Fantasy Sports Girl Chloe has the Bills camp preview...

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Though I didn't even list them as one of the five teams I thought would be a good fit for Terrell Owens, the Buffalo Bills appear to be a nice landing spot for the free agent. The Bills agreed to terms with Terrell Owens on a one-year, $6.5 million contract over the weekend.

It is totally out of character for them, but the fact they did a one-year deal seems to make a lot sense. Owens will have something to prove and with a potential of one last big payday waiting in the wings, T.O. is going to be motivated.

Owens joins Lee Evans to give the Bills their best receiving duo since Andre Reed and James Lofton paired up to give Jim Kelly some formidable targets.

The addition of T.O. is huge for Evans, who has struggled as a No. 1 through quarterback transitions and without any help opposite of him.

Owens and Evans have been two of the NFL's three best receivers when it comes to touchdowns of 30 yards or longer. Owens leads the way with 15, while Evans is tied with three others for third with 10.

Trent Edwards appears to be the real deal at quarterback and now he'll get his chance to prove it.

NFL bills, terrell owens, lee evans, trent edwards, andre reed, james lofton, jim kelly

Here is our Week 5 edition of Line-Up Locks. Here's a quick look at those who have favorable matchups (LOCK IN) and those who deserve a spot on your bench this week (LOCK OUT):
 
QUARTERBACKS
Lock In:
--Trent Edwards @ Ari
My take: The Cardinals gave up 6 TDs to Brett Favre. Edwards is good for at least two, maybe three against that kind of defense.

--Matt Schaub vs. Ind
My take: Schaub had two TDs last Sunday and I expect much of the same against an Indy defense that is vulnerable without Bob Sanders.

--Eli Manning vs. Sea
My take: Teams always seem to do better after a bye week. Be slightly concerned about Plaxico Burress' suspension this week, but I don't think it holds Eli's stats down much as I think Plax needs the Giants more than they need him.

Lock Out:
--Jason Campbell @ Phi
My take: This should be another great game in the NFC East, but unlike against Dallas last week, I expect the Eagles to pressure Campbell all day.

--Carson Palmer @ Dal
My take: I don't think he's going to play again this week, after last week's surprise inactive. Even if he plays, this match up could be a train wreck.

--Ben Roethlisberger @ Jax
My take: He's hurt and so is his offensive line who can't keep him healthy. Oh, and he's now having to rely on Mewelde Moore and Najeh Davenport to run the ball. The Jaguars are going to try to take Big Ben out of the game and make the Steelers beat them on the ground.


RUNNING BACKS
Lock In:
--Matt Forte @ Det
My take: Forte is going to be a force all game against the worst rush defense in the NFL. I expect Forte to be one of the top scorers of the week. He's even catching passes now. 

--Earnest Graham @ Den
My take: The Broncos defense is non-existent and Jon Gruden is going to attack the Broncos on the ground and Graham owners will be the beneficiaries.

--Jonathan Stewart vs. KC
My take: Expect a nice Daily Show from this John Stewart as he will once again score at least once versus a lousy Chiefs rush defense.

Lock Out:
--Reggie Bush vs. Min
My take: If you're in a points per reception league, you'll want to keep Bush active, but from a rushing, yardage, scoring standpoint, the Vikings defense is still stout.

--Maurice Jones-Drew vs. Pit
My take: This will be a low-scoring affair and as always, you never know who's going to scalp a score away from MJD, including somebody named Montell Owens last Sunday. Frustrating.

--Edgerrin James vs. Buf
My take: Yes, he scored a couple of TDs last week, but he gained only 30 yards rushing. Take those TDs away and you have a risky pick. Don't risk it this week.


WIDE RECEIVERS
Lock In:
--Terrell Owens vs. Cin
My take: You likely weren't going to bench him, but this week, his frustrations will be over as the Bengals will cure all that ails him.

--Lee Evans @ Ari
My take: Did I mention that Brett Favre lit the Cardinals secondary up and so did Lavernues Coles (who by the way I picked as a lock in last week). I can't promise 3 TDs, but I can tell you to lock in Evans.

--DeSean Jackson vs. Was
My take: This guy has shown me enough and produced enough to convince me that he's worthy of a lock in, especially this week. Tougher matchup, but he'll still get his.

Lock Out:
--Chad Johnson/TJ Housmanzadeh @ Dal
My take: If Carson Palmer plays, play TJ for sure, if Fitzpatrick is under center, stay away altogether.

--Donald Driver vs. Atl
My take: Aaron Rodgers is very questionable. If he doesn't play, bench Driver, for sure. Even if he plays, I don't like his chances this week.

--Santonio Holmes @ Jax
My take: As I mentioned, the Jags are likely to shut down the passing game because the Steelers are decimated with injuries in their backfield and on offensive line.


TIGHT ENDS
Lock In:
--Jason Witten @ Cin
My take:  You know to start Witten every week, but this match up doesn't get any better than this one. If you have another solid TE and can move Witten to a flex or WR spot, do it because he will produce like an elite WR this week.

--Kevin Boss vs NyG
My take: Plaxico Burress' suspension helps Boss' value, plus Manning has started targeting his big TE more and more.

--Heath Miller @ Jax
My take: While I think the Steelers will struggle to score, they will at least get one TD and I think Miller will be the likely candidate for it.

Lock Out:
--Vernon Davis vs. NE
My take: Not only should he not be in your lineup, he should be on your waiver wire, because he's done absolutely nothing and that trend will continue.

--Todd Heap vs. Ten
My take: He was on this list last week, and he deserved it. Dan Clasgens said it well, Heap belongs on the scrap heap.

--John Carlson @ NyG
My take: With Bobby Engram and Deion Branch back and with a tough match up against the Giants, I don't like Carlson too much this week.


TEAM DEFENSE/ST
Lock In:
--Dallas vs. Cin
--Chicago @ Det
--Jacksonville vs. Pitt.

Lock Out:
--Tampa Bay @ Den
--Buffalo @ Ariz
--Minnesota @ NO

Fantasy Football trent edwards, matt schaub, eli manning, jason campbell, carson palmer, ben roethlisberger, matt forte, earnest graham, jonathan stewart, reggie bush, maurice jones-drew, edgerrin james, terrell owens, lee evans, desean jackson, chad johnson, tj housmanzadeh, donald driver, santonio holmes, jason witten, kevin boss, eath miller, vernon davis, todd heap, john carlson, cowboys def, bears def, jaguars def, buccaneers def, bills def, vikings def

Most people have probably drafted now, but I wanted to share the experience anyway. Last night, I had two fantasy drafts, in fact, one of them spilled over into the other one (one I did on a conference call and one I did online). The online one was our GSI House League. It's a fairly standard league, except there are no idiots, no cupcakes in the league, so you can expect solid picking. And that's what I got.

I had the #5 pick in the 12-team league. A great place to draft from, and usually one of my favorite spots. However, as I started off with my strategy and stuck to it (I was going two RBs and two WRs in my first four picks in no particular order) something awful occurred to me.

In Round 3 I selected Steve Smith. Not too shabby. He's due for a breakout. I can deal with his suspension.

In Round 4, I got Brandon Marshall. I like this pick a lot. His suspension was reduced to 1 game. However, I'm now without a WR for week 1 at this point, which then threw me off my game. I should've just dealt with having a bad first week (but I hate starting off 0-1) and stuck to my draft strategy. But instead, I panicked like a QB under pressure and I looked downfield and threw the pass that I shouldn't have. I began taking more WRs than I wanted to.

In Round 6, I took Lee Evans. Too early for such an inconsistent player on a bad team. Then I took Reggie Brown (questionable for Week 1). Yikes, it's getting worse. Long story short, don't ever let injuries or suspensions or even bye weeks make you change up your draft strategy.

In this same league last year, Jeremy Fischer had 4 or 5 of his top guys on the same bye. He was ridiculed. But he took them because they were the best available and he just dealt with that one week. J-Fish won the league. Maybe my team will be better than I think, but right now, I am dissatisfied with them and I have only myself to blame.

Fantasy Football gsi house league, steve smith, brandon marshall, lee evans, reggie brown

The Rookie To Watch for this week goes to James Hardy of the Buffalo Bills. The former Indiana Hoosier could start the season as the counterpart on the field to Lee Evans in Buffalo. The 6'7", 220 pound wideout is going to be a big target, especially in the redzone, for Bills QB, Trent Edwards.

In Hardy's junior season at Indiana he amassed 1125 yard receiving and 16 TDs. With his size, he could end up being a big surprise in the upcoming season and end it with a 6-8 TDs. The only issue is who he has throwing the ball to him. Edwards is coming into his second season as the signal-caller for the Bills, so depending on how he's progressed from his rookie season could determine how well of a season his wideouts have.

Hardy has the skills to be a productive wideout for your fantasy team. If you're in a deep league with 12 to 14 teams, definitely consider taking him late in the draft as a WR4 option. As the season plays out he could very well end up as a viable WR3 option, but again, that all depends on how well Edwards plays and how quickly Hardy can pickup the plays in the playbook. While he didn't make an appearance on the first installment of the GSI.com Preseason Cheat Sheet, Hardy was recently ranked No. 58 on ESPN.com's WR rankings, ahead of veteran guys like Mushin Muhammad and Brandon Stokley. He was ranked No. 42 by CBSSports.com, ahead of a number of decent fantasy options at WR.

Keep an eye on how Hardy does in the preseason. He may jump up the depth chart by the time the season rolls around. And while he may not end up getting drafted during your league's draft, keep a close watch on him early in the season. He could end up being a decent waiver wire/free agent pickup as the season goes along.

Fantasy Football bills, james hardy, lee evans, trent edwards, mushin muhammad, brandon stokley

The annual GSI Blog Mock Draft is cruising right along, and you can really start to see who the "experts" are:

RECAP: ROUND 1 | ROUND 2 | ROUND 3 | ROUND 4 | ROUND 5

Here's Round 6:
51. FISCHER - Ben Roethlisberger - PIT
52. WETZEL - Kevin Jones - CHI
53. SIMON - Julius Jones - SEA
54. SIMS - Rudi Johnson - CIN
55. MURDICO - Tony Gonzalez - KC
56. DINSMORE - Edgerrin James - ARI
57. BOLTON - Marvin Harrison - IND
58. HUMBERT - Greg Jennings - GB
59. CLASGENS - Selvin Young - DEN
60. PREUTH - Lee Evans - BUF

My Pick: With Travis Henry out of the picture in Denver, the job belongs to Selvin Young. He showed flashes of greatness during 2007, but he also gaves owners a reason to question his durability. Veteran Michael Pittman is going to have role in the offense for sure. Young will serve as my RB3 and could wind up being a potential RB1. His upside at this spot is too good to pass up.

Biggest Reach: I am not trying to pick on WETZEL, but the Kevin Jones pick is terrible. I can see how he got caught up in the moment after KJ landed with the Bears earlier this week, but he's likely to start the year on the P.U.P. List. Even after he gets back to action he's still sharing too many carries in what I expect to be a cluttered Bears' backfield. Every RB taken after him in this round is a safer and better pick.

Final Take: When you get to Round 6 every player has their baggage. Ultimately, though when in doubt I go with upside (players who are young and on the rise). That philosophy speaks well for those that took Roethlisberger, Jennings, and Young but not as much for Edgerrin James and Marvin Harrison.

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