Playoff Picks: Conference Championships

15. January 2009  - Published by Dan Clasgens

Three more freakin' games, that's all we have left of the NFL in 2008. This weekend's slate looks nothing like I predicted in the NFC, but I pretty much nailed it in the AFC. Either way it makes for an interesting  Sunday of football. Here's how I see the games unfolding this weekend:

PHILADELPHIA (9-7) at ARIZONA (9-6-1) - Eagles favored by 4
Outlook: For the thrird straight week it's hard to find anybody that wants to pick the Cardinals, but they just keep finding ways to win. In my mind they've already beaten two teams that are just as good as Philly.

The Eagles are riding high, but outside of drilliing an overrated and unfocused Cowboys' team to get into the playoffs, outlasting a Tavaris Jackson-led Vikings' squad, and a Giants' offense that failed to find an idenity what have the Eagles done? All that's right, they tied the freakin' Bengals, got drilled by the Ravens, and blew a must-win game late in the year to a weak Redskins' team.

Arizona looked terrible down the stretch of the regular season, but post-season surge of the defense and the committment to get a running game going has breathed life into the Cardinals at the perfect time. They looked impressive against Atlanta and shut down Michael Turner. Then they went to Carolina and did something eight other teams couldn't do this year as they beat the Panthers. And not just beat them, but drill them.

The Eagles jumped out to a 21-0 lead before rolling the Cards on Thanksgiving Night, but this time its in Arizona and believe it or not I am going to think that makes a difference.

My Pick: CARDS 24, EAGLES 20

Fantasy Clicks: PLAY - Donovan McNabb, Kurt Warner, Brian Westbrook, Edgerrin James, Tim Hightower, Anquan Boldin, Larry Fitzgerald, DeSean Jackson, Brent Celek, David Akers, Neil Rackers; DON'T PLAY - Correll Buckhalter, Kevin Curtis, Reggie Brown, L.J. Smith, Eagles DEF, Cardinals DEF


BALTIMORE (11-5) at PITTSBURGH (12-4) - Steelers favored by 6

Outlook: The Steelers have already beaten the Ravens twice this season and beating a team three times in one season is a tough task, but it's not unheard off. Just ask the 1999 Jaguars, they went 14-2 before with both losses coming to the Titans, then they lost to Tennessee in the playoffs. It happens. Baltimore has had quite a run to get this point, but they look tired. They haven't had a bye since Week 2 and the veterans on the defense have played at such a high level I think that could hurt them.

Meanwhile, Pittsburgh is enjoying fresh life in the running game as Fast Willie Parker finally gets to 100%. His speed to the outside could present problems for the Ravens, who are likely to be without linebacker Terrell Suggs. Ben Roethlisberger is going to be playing looser than Joe Flacco, but that could lead into turnovers. To me that is the key to this game. If Baltimore is going to have a chance they will need to limit Big Ben and capitalize on mistakes. I don't see the Steelers, who have the best homefield advantage in the league, making too many mistakes though.

My Pick: STEELERS 20, RAVENS 13

Fantasy Clicks: PLAY - Ben Roethlisberger, Willie Parker, LeRon McClain, Santonio Holmes, Hines Ward, Derrick Mason, Heath Miller, Jeff Reed, Matt Stover, Steelers DEF, Ravens DEF; DON'T PLAY -Willis McGahee, Mewelde Moore, Mark Clayton, Nate Washington, Todd Heap

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Playoff Picks: Divisional Round

8. January 2009  - Published by Dan Clasgens

Man each week the NFL season draws closer to an end, and each week the depression kicks in a little more. Still, there are some great games on tap this weekend and I am going to try to enjoy them to the fullest. Let's take a look each game as I tell you how I see things unfolding and give you my picks.

BALTIMORE (12-5) at TENNESSEE (13-3) - Titans favored by 3
Outlook: The Titans won the Week 5 meeting 13-10 in Baltimore and this one promises to be another slugfest. Baltimore comes into the game off an impressive opening-round victory and seem to be clicking on all cylinders. In the Week 5 meeting the Ravens controlled the clock and limited Tennessee to 47 yards rushing. Tennessee will need more effective running the ball this time around. Ravens' QB Joe Flacco threw two picks in the first meeting, but hasn't been turning the ball over as much of late. The two teams are extremely similar statisically in PaYd per game, RuYd per game, points scored, points allowed, give-aways, and take-aways. The game could easily come down to which team can put points on the board with their defense of special teams.

My Pick: Ravens 20, Titans 16...The one underdog I like to win straight up this week.

Fantasy Clicks: PLAY - Chris Johnson, LeRon McClain, Derrick Mason, Bo Scaife, Rob Bironas, Matt Stover, Ravens DEF, Titans DEF; DON'T PLAY - Joe Flacco, Kerry Collins, LenDale White, Any Titans' WR, Todd Heap.


ARIZONA (10-7) at CAROLINA (12-4) - Panthers favored by 10
Outlook: Talk about two teams that are completely different, the Cardinals and Panthers have gotten to this point in completely different manners. The Panthers have a top-notched running game and an above average defense. The Cardinals boast the league's most prolific passing attack, but struggle to move the ball on the ground and has played inconsistent this year on defense. The game is in Carolina and that could be the difference. Arizona is just 3-5 away from the friendly confines of the desert and and the Panthers are a perfect 8-0 at Bank of America Stadium. Kurt Warner has passed for twice as many TD's as Jake Delhomme (30:15), but Edgerrin James and Tim Hightower collectively were nearly outproduced by the Panthers' No. 2 running back Jonathan Stewart on the ground (913 yards to 836 yards). DeAngelo Williams finished thrid in the NFL in rushing with 1515 yards.

My Pick: Carolina 31, Arizona 20...The Cards will have some success on offense, but will not be able to stop the run this week.

Fantasy Clicks: PLAY - Jake Delhomme, Kurt Warner, DeAngelo Williams, Edgerrin James, Jonathan Stewart, Steve Smith, Larry Fitzgerald, Steve Breaston, Anquan Boldin (game-time decision), Mushin Muhammad, John Kasay, Neil Rackers; DON'T PLAY - Tim Hightower, Stephen Spach, Donte Rosario, Panthers DEF, Cardinals DEF.


PHILADELPHIA (10-6-1) at NY GIANTS (13-3) - Giants favored by 4.5

Outlook: I am still trying to figure out the Eagles even got this point. It wasn't too long ago I went and watched them tie the Bengals. Much has happened since then and the Eagles have won 4 of their last 5 games to get to this point. The Giants are the defending champs and come into the game well rested. While the Eagles finished the season red hot, the Giants were a bit sluggish down the stretch as they dealt with problems on and off the field. The two teams split in their head-to-head match-ups with Philly, winning 20-14 in Week 14 at the Meadowlands. Eli Manning has looked rough down the stretch (only averaging 153 PaYd per game w/out Plaxico). The G-Men will enjoy a healthy return of Brandon Jacobs.

My Pick: Giants 20, Eagles 14...the rubber match should be a good one, but I still like the champs coming off two weeks of rest.

Fantasy Clicks: PLAY - Donovan McNabb, Brian Westbrook, Brandon Jacobs, Derrick Ward, DeSean Jackson, Kevin Curtis, Domenik Hixon, Kevin Boss, Brent Celek, Eagles DEF, David Akers, John Carney; DON'T PLAY - Eli Manning, Correll Buckhalter, Amani Toomer, Giants DEF.


SAN DIEGO (9-8) at PITTSBURGH (12-4) - Steelers favored by 6

Outlook: A little over a month ago I pegged the Chargers as the most overrated team and declared Norv Turner one of the worst coaches in the league. It's amazing what five straight wins can do for job somebody's job security. Behind the Pro Bowl caliber play of Phillip Rivers and the speedy Darren Sproles San Diego has caught a bolt of lightning. Pittsburgh's defense is as good as ever and quarterback Ben Roethlisberger continues to find ways to win. The Steelers' ground attack has been disappointing, but it hasn't matter much as they've continue to beat good team after good team. They have the best homefield advantage of any team in the playoffs and that could make the difference here. San Diego lost at Pittsburhg in Week 11 in the first 11-10 game in NFL history.

My Pick: Pittsburgh 21, Chargers 14...as much as I hate them the Steelers are my Super Bowl pick right now and I am sticking with it!

Fantasy Clicks: PLAY - Ben Roethlisberger, Willie Parker, Hines Ward, Santonio Holmes, Vincent Jackson, Antonio Gates, Heath Miller, Steelers; DON'T PLAY - Phillip Rivers, Darren Sproles (fear the Steelers' D), LaDainian Tomlinson (hurt), Chris Chambers, Chargers DEF, Nate Kaeding, Jeff Reed.

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Game Balls: Week 16

21. December 2008  - Published by Jim Humbert

Le'Ron McClain, RB, Baltimore - 22 carries, 139 yards, 1 TD
A few years ago the Ravens won it all with a solid running game and an excellent defense. They may be on track to do it again. Not only did McClain have a huge night against the Cowboys on Saturday, Willis McGahee added 108 yards of his own thanks to a 77-yard touchdown run. Joe Flacco threw for just 149 yards but did not turn the ball over. On the defensive side of the ball, Ed Reed stole the show with two interceptions. The Ravens still need one more win the clinch a playoff berth and if they do it, I wouldn't want to be the team to have to face them.

Phillip Rivers, QB, San Diego - 21/31, 287 yards, 4 TD

The Chargers kept their playoff hopes alive with a big win in Tampa. Rivers had another big game with two touchdowns to Antonio Gates. Darren Sproles and Brandon Manumaleuna each scored on screen plays while Vincent Jackson led the team with 111 yards on seven catches. Once again LaDainian Tomlinson had a disappointing day with 90 yards rushing and 20 receiving and did not score.

Jason Jones, DE, Tennessee - 4 Tackles, 3.5 sacks, 3 FF
In the absence of Albert Haynesworth the rookie Jones stepped up today for the Titans. Jones hit Ben Roethlisberger hard and often who in turn lost two fumbles and two interceptions. Justin Gage had the big day on offense for Tennesse with five catches for 104 yards and a touchdown. LenDale White and Chris Johnson combined for 117 rushing yards and each scored. The Titans win over the Steelers give them a much deserved home-field advantage throughout the playoffs.

Chad Pennington, QB, Miami - 26/34, 235 yards, 3 TD, 1 Int

Brett Favre may be going to the Pro-Bowl but it looks like it's Pennington that will be taking his team to the post-season. The Dolphins won a tough game in Kansas City thanks to the arm of their quarterback. Pennington found Anthony Fasano late in the fourth quarter for his second touchdown of the game and the defense held on for the teams' tenth victory. Pennington will have a chance to show the Jets the error of their ways next week when his team visits New York to play for the AFC East title. Stay tuned.

Cedric Benson, RB, Cincinnati - 38 carries, 171 yards
With a final score of 14-0 it may be suggested that the Bengals and Browns engaged in a defensive struggle. But in reality, it was more of a couple of inept offenses playing touch football in an empty lot. Benson nearly totalled more yards than the entire Browns offense which finished with 182. He did more than triple his quaterback's passing total of 55 yards. Cornerback Leon Hall deserves credit with three interceptions and running one of those back for a score.

Maurice Morris, RB, Seattle - 29 carries, 116 yards
In a season that has been lost for a while, the only thing the Seahawks have left to play is the role of the spoiler. And that's exactly what they did on Sunday. Seattle beat the Jets by holding them to just three points and then running the ball with Morris. Seneca Wallace was servicable with 175 yards and a score. But those numbers were better than the Jets' QB. Favre finished with 187 passing yards yards, no touchdowns, two interceptions and was sacked four times.

Jay Cutler, QB, Denver - 25/45, 359 pass yards, 8 carries, 30 rush yards, 2 TD
Cutler did all he could to beat the Bills and clinch the AFC West crown. He rushed the ball more times than any Bronco back. He hooked up with his pro-bowl receiver, Brandon Marshall, 10 times for 129 yards. But he also threw a late interception ending the Broncos chances to beat the Bills. It also did not help that he can't play defense as the Broncos continue to allow big points to their opponents. But they will have one more chance next week in San Diego to win the crown and move on to the playoffs.

Visanthe Shiancoe, TE, Minnesota - 7 ctaches, 136 yards, 2 TD
Shiancoe has a huge game against the Falcons but it was not enough to pull out a victory. Atlanta capitalized on Minnesota mistakes and clinched a playoff spot thanks the Bucs loss to the Chargers. The Vikings are still very much alive, however, and should not be too discouraged. Despite some fumbles and poor clock management, Tavaris Jackson did fairly well throwing for 233 yards and running for 76 more. The rest of the running game was shaky with Adrian Peterson finishing with just 76 yards.


The Game Used Sock Award
Kurt Warner, QB, Arizona - 6/18, 30 yards
Yes, there are a number of excuses for the play of Warner and the Cardinals in New England on Sunday. First, there's the whole 'west coast traveling to the east coat' thing. Then the couple of inches of snow and low temperatures didn't help. And, of course, Arizona already wrapped up a playoff berth and don't have much to play for. Oh yeah, Warner was without Anquan Boldin too. BALONEY. Fine, don't bring your 'A' game. Rest some players. Play some back-ups. And don't risk injuries. But 30 passing yards in two and a half quarters is pathetic in any scenario. And by the way, the other quarterback on the field threw for 345 yards and three touchdowns and his team may miss the playoffs. So Warner gets to fly back to the desert wearing his dirty socks. Hopefully they're those thermal-heated socks that hunters wear - not that it made a difference.

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Fantasy: Playoff Rants

9. December 2008  - Published by Dan Clasgens

The fantasy playoffs either started last week for you or are likely getting ready to kick off in Week 15. Either way a microscope gets place on decisions like at no other point of the season. My best advice, don't sweat it.

Really, the situation is out of your control and the best you can do is make an educated guess. However, all too often I see fantasy owners do things out of the oridnary as they look for any edge they can get. That's not a bad thing, but don't let it blind your judgment. Just last week I had a guy insisting inside one of our live chats that him starting J.P. Losman in a dome or Donovan McNabb against the Giants in 40 MPH winds.  Weather needs to be considered, but only as a deciding factor not the sole reason.

Here are some more interesting dilemmas you may be looking at this week...

SAINTS' OFFENSE IN THE WINDY CITY
Last week Pierre Thomas and Reggie Bush both porved to be valuable for fantasy owners in a high-scoring affair inside the dome against the Falcons and Drew Brees and his stable of receivers always make logical plays. However, this week the Saints travel to Chicago for a Thursday night showdown with the Bears. We all remember the Saints' offense dismal showing in the NFC Championship game two years ago and something tells me their offense isn't built for a December game at Solider Field. At this point, there is only a 10% chance of snow but it is going to be cold. The Bears' D is actually better against the run than the pass and that could be good news for Drew Brees, who's still a must play regardless of his match-up at this point. Bush is likely to get some catches out of the backfield and Thomas could get a short-yardage score, but neither back will put up high rushing totals. Colston and Moore are always capable of putting some numbers, but neither is a lock and both could be sat for a better match-up.

STEELERS VS. RAVENS
Unless it's the defense I am staying clear of all players in this match-up. As good as the Steelers and Ravens have played this one is going to be a physical affair. Ben Roethlisberger doesn't look 100% to me and he'll struggle with the Ravens' pressure. No way does rookie Joe Flacco get the call in this enviroment with your playoff livelihood on the line. The Ravens' backfield is a mess, but LeRon McClain could be argued for a RB3. Pittsburhg's backfield is frustrating. Mewelde Moore is running the best, but Willie Parker is still getting carries and Gary Russell is coming in at the goalline. Stay away from the situation altogether at this point. Hines Ward, Santanio Holmes, and Derrick Mason have each had their moments this year, but rolling the dice on any of them producing in these circumstances is not recommended.

WILL THE REAL DOMINIC HIXON PLEASE STEP UP?
There is been so much hype surrounding Dominic Hixon since Plaxico Burress and this point the jury is still out on the Giants' wideout. I wasn't expecting much last week against Philly in blistery condiditions, but Hixon still was within inches of a huge catch. I like his upside and I am expecting the game in Dallas on Sunday night to have more offense than what we've been seeing. Hixon is a great WR3 and has great upside against a Cowboys' secondary that has a tendency to get beat deep. I am playing him in my PPR format as my FLEX player this week and recommend that you do the same.

CAN ROMO BOUNCE BACK, SHOULD BARBER START?
While on the topic of Sunday night's big game in Dallas, let's talk about the Cowboys. I hope you listened last week when I said sit Tony Romo. He was dreadful against Pittsburgh, finishing with just 1 TD and 4 turnovers. He's not going to blow it up this week, but I definitely expect a bounce back and consider him a solid starting option against the Giants. The G-Men have been tough on defense and have only allowed 13.2 points per game to fantasy QB's, but I look for the Cowboys to have much more success through the air this time around. The running game is a different situation altogether. Marion Barber is likely going to be a game-time decision again and even if he comes back he's battling a toe and calf injury and with the way rookie Tashard Choice has performed seeing the two split carries would not be hard to imagine. Should Barber be ruled out, Choice is a low-end RB2 option and worth a look as a flex. 

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Game Time Decisions: Week 13

29. November 2008  - Published by Dan Clasgens

Let's take a look at some injuries to keep your eyes on heading into Sunday's action:

QUARTERBACKS
David Garrard (back) - looks good to go for Monday night
Matt Schaub (knee) - making progress; could play Monday
Marc Bulger (concussion) - expected to start vs. Mia

RUNNING BACKS
Brandon Jacobs (knee) - listed as questionable, but expected to start
Steven Jackson (quad) - barring setback he should be active vs. Mia
Reggie Bush (knee) - expected to get 18-20 touches vs. TB
Willie Parker (knee) - back-to-back full practices; questionable
Clinton Portis (knee) - 50/50 shot of playing; look for him to go
Steve Slaton (chest) - practiced fully on Friday; safe to play
Jonathan Stewart (heel) - no limitations in Friday's practice
Selvin Young (groin) - going to be a game-time decision; not 100%
LeRon McClain (ankle) - limited on Friday, but is probable

WIDE RECEIVERS

Greg Jennings (ribs) - returned to full practice FRI; probable
Roddy White (back) - listed as questionable; should start
TJ Houshmandzadeh (back) - practiced FRI and will start vs. Bal
Plaxico Burress (hamstring) - will not play vs. WAS
Laveranues Coles (thigh) - appears to be a go vs. DEN
Eddie Royal (toe) - listed as questionable; expected to play
Derrick Mason (shoulder) - listed as probable; should start
Mark Bradley (calf) - officially a game-time decision
Josh Morgan (groin) - practiced FRI, but still questionable

TIGHT ENDS

Kellen Winslow (shoulder) - questionable vs. Ind
Zach Miller (groin) - limited all week, but likely to go

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Fantasy Traffic Light

30. September 2008  - Published by Dan Clasgens

Green Light, Yellow Light, Red Light – STOP!!! There are some appealing names each week on the waiver wire, I supply my weekly take on whether these players should be considered or not.

QUARTERBACKS
Marc Bulger (STL) - The first thing the Rams' new head coach Jim Haslett did upon taking the job on Monday was announce that Bulger would return to his role as the team's starting quarterback. After watching Trent Green give it a try, it appears as if Bulger's job security is on the rise. He's not the best option, but can still help add depth and is a decent backup in larger leagues.

Kyle Orton (CHI) - His numbers have been surpsingly solid so far this year and many owners are hurting with bye week right now. If you need a filler Orton does have a couple of matchups over the next two weeks that are appealing - the Lions and Chiefs. Don't get too exctied though, I wouldn't want to count on him on a weekly basis in my lineup. Make the move if needed.


RUNNING BACKS
Mewelde Moore (MIN) - This guy was actually a fantasy commodity a couple of years back in Minnesota, but got buried on the depth chart. The same thing happened upon his arrival to Pittsburgh. That changed on Monday night when not one, but two Steelers' running backs went down. With starting RB Willie Parker already out with a sprained knee the team did opt to bring back Najeh Davenport, but it is Moore that will start for now.

Le'Ron McClain (BAL) - I only gave the yellow light to the Ravens' big bruiser last week, but after watching him continue to be a factor and seeing how out of shape Willis McGahee is, I have assigned the green light to McClain. He's still not starter material (outside of desperation), but certainly has shown enough to put the "worth stashing" tag to. Expect for to continue to be involved in the Ravens' offense, particularly at the goalline.

Cedric Benson (CIN) - The Bengals desperately turned to Cedric Benson on Tuesday to fill a void in the backfield. The fact that the guy is still a free agent in Week 4 of the NFL season should tell you all that you need to know. There's no doubt that Chris Perry is injury prone, but Benson should not be considered until he proves he can contribute. Longterm I am still expecting Kenny Watson to be the better handcuff.


WIDE RECEIVERS
Bobby Engram (SEA) - It looks like Engram and teammate Deion Branch are going to return to action for the Seahawks. They both should be looked at as waiver wire options, but I am bigger on Engram, who should immediately emerge as Matt Hasselbeck's target. If he's still available in your league pick him up now and look at him as legitimate No. 3 fantasy wideout.

Arnaz Battle (SF) - Playing in Mike Martz' offense has done wonders for many receivers and there is no doubt Arnaz Battle is starting to show some of this. Still, Battle has never really impressed me and there are still other names out there that have more appeal to me. J.T. O'Sullivan has breathed some life in the offense and its worth keeping an eye on Battle's progress, but he needs another week or two of solid production before I go clearing a roster spot.

Donnie Avery (STL) - The Rams' speedster showed up on the fantasy radar this week with a 37-yard rushing touchdown on an end-around run and caught 3 balls for the second straight week. It appears as if he start opposite of Torry Holt moving forward. That speaks more to how bad the Rams are rather than Avery's ability. He's going to make a few highlight reels this season, but he's not going to provide much help to your fantasy team.

TIGHT ENDS
Zach Miller (OAK) - There's no denying Miller's upside and talent and after watching him catch 5 balls for 95 yards and a score in Week 4, fantasy owners are going to be rushing to grab him this week. However, you may want to consider other options for now. Oakland has a bye this week and just fired their head coach, so it may be best to wait and see how things to develop.

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Fantasy Traffic Light

23. September 2008  - Published by Dan Clasgens

Green Light, Yellow Light, Red Light – STOP!!! There are some appealing names each week on the waiver wire, I supply my weekly take on whether these players should be considered or not.

QUARTERBACKS
J.T. O'Sullivan (SF) - OK, somehow the Niners' quarterback is still available in nearly 25% of the leagues out there. He's benefiting greatly from playing in Mike Martz's offense and is a must have if he's still lingering on your league's waiver wire. He's averaging 235 yards and a TD per contest early on this year. I like his upside. Don't confuse him with a weekly line-up lock, but a backup worth playing in the right match-up.

Brian Griese (TB) - I had the yellow light next to his name last week, but after tossing up 67 passes against the Bears and having a fantasy gem. I am ready to give you the green light on this guy. He will turn the ball over, but as I stated all along he's the better fit in the Bucs' system and should keep the starting job over veteran Jeff Garcia. Officially worth a look in larger leagues as a backup option.


RUNNING BACKS
Rudi Johnson (DET) - After taking a couple of weeks to settle into the offense, Lions' running back Rudi Johnson started to emerge in Week 3's loss to the Lions. He ran the ball 14 times for 83 yards and caught 3 passes for 48 yards and a TD. Kevin Smith has not gotten off to the start the team was hoping for and with a bye week ahead Johnson should have even more time to adapt to his new team. He's off this week, but still worth a grab to add RB-depth to your team.

Steve Slaton (HOU) - He got his first start on Sunday and the Texans' running back made the most of it, breaking out for a 100-yard day. Slaton should hold a firm grip on the Texans' starting job as Ahman Green  is always hurt and shouldn't be much of a factor. His value goes up in points-per-reception leagues as he is a more-than-capable receiving back. He's available in 29% of the leagues played on CBSSports.com, but won't be after this week.

Le'Ron McClain (BAL) - The Ravens' bruising back is showing up the fantasy radar as he continues to be a weekly part of the Ravens' attack. He's 18 rushing attempts per game so far this year. He is averaging 76 rushing yards, one rushing touchdown, 1.5 receptions and 14 receiving yards per game through two weeks. Still, its only two weeks and those games were against the Bengals and Browns. Keep your eyes on him, but I wouldn't rush out to get him just yet.


WIDE RECEIVERS
Robert Meachem (NO) - Drew Brees is seemingly losing targets by the minute in New Orleans with Marques Colston and now Jeremy Shockey sidelined with injuries. Meachem followed up his Week 2 touchdown with 86 yards receiving on Sunday. He's a homerun hitter that has big time fantasy upside. Don't expect a ton of receptions, but the targets will only increase. Meachem is my favorite receiver option currently healthy for the Saints from a fantasy prospective.

Brandon Lloyd (CHI) -  I am not getting sucked into the hype that starting surrounding the Bears' wideout. OK, he may his team's No. 1 receiving option (at least for now), but that says more about the state of the Bears' offense than it does about Lloyd's fantasy value. You can't ignore the fact that he's averaging 4.3 catches for 73 yards per game, but I can't get exctied about a wideout on the receiving end of Kyle Orton passes. Let someone else waste a waiver claim on him.

Antonio Chatman (CIN) - One of the few bright spots from the Bengals' loss to the Giants on Sunday was the emergence of No. 3 wideout Antonio Chatman. He grabbed six balls for 70 yards and looked to be in sync with Carson Palmer. With Chad Johnson struggling and Ben Uetecht out of the lineup Chatman should keep getting chances to produce. However, with Chris Henry still in the mix following a suspension and two rookies in the wings in Jerome Simpson and Andre Caldwell, the odds are stacked against Chatman becoming relevant for owners.

TIGHT ENDS
Billy Miller (NO) - With Jeremy Shockey now out 3-6 weeks following a sports hernia, the natural inclination is going to be to jump on his backup, but hold your horses. He could have limited short-term success, but it will be short lived and is far from being a guarantee. You should be able to find a more reliable option.


KICKER
Matt Prater (DEN) - The Broncos' offense is putting points on the board faster than any other team and their young kicker is benefting greatly from it. Somehow though many leagues still have him out there on the waiver wire.  Kickers seldom make a difference but if he keeps scoring at this pace there's no doubt that Prather can become a force.


DEFENSE
Falcons (ATL) - Don't get too carried away with the three turnovers and two sacks they had last week or the team's fast start. Remember, they've played the Lions and Chiefs to get those wins and most of those stats. This team is much-improved, but far from being playoff caliber. Stay away from their defense unless you have few choices.

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