Fantasy: QB Shuffle

2. April 2013  - Published by Dan Clasgens

Over the past week there have been several quarterbacks to find new homes in the NFL. Let’s look at the fantasy impact of these moves.

CARDS DEAL FOR CARSON PALMER
Despite how bad he looked on tape at times, Palmer actually was a decent fantasy commodity in 2012 playing for a Raiders’ team that was playing from behind early-and-often.  It resulted in six 300-yard passing days, including in four of five games during a stretch from Week 9 to Week 14. 

While the move to Arizona gives Palmer some good weapons, his tendency to turn the ball over and his lack of mobility might become an issue playing behind a weak Cardinals’ o-line.  Palmer has promise as a mid-range QB2 in year-to-year formats. 

The biggest fantasy impact though could be on Larry Fitzgerald’s value. He will get a few bumps up in our rankings update coming soon after a disappointing 2012 campaign that was hindered by the disgraceful play under center in Arizona. 

After watching how Palmer helped Brandon Myers a household fantasy name last season, tight end Rob Housler becomes one my favorite sleepers at the position for the season ahead.

SEAHAWKS SEND MATT FLYNN TO RAIDERS
A year after making a big move to acquire Matt Flynn to help solve their problems at quarterback, Seattle traded the career-long backup to the Raiders.  Russell Wilson stole the job last preseason and never looked back on his way to a breakout debut season.

The jury is still out Flynn, but it was clear that the Raiders-Palmer marriage needed to come to an end. Aside from a two-game stretch with the Packers late in 2011 in which he blew it up (731 PaYd, 9 PaTD), Flynn is unproven. Assuming he holds off Terrell Pryor he will still be hard pressed to crack my top 25 rankings at QB entering 2013.

KEVIN KOLB LANDS IN BUFFALO
After being cut by the Cardinals, Kolb finds a new home in Buffalo where he figures to have the leg up over Tavaris Jackson entering camp.  It’s hard to imagine Kolb being a significant upgrade over Ryan Fitzpatrick. If nothing else, Buffalo is banking on fewer turnovers.  Durability has been an issue, but if Kolb can stay healthy he could serve as a low-end QB2.

BROWNS BRING IN JASON CAMPBELL

New Browns’ head coach Rob Chudzinski has made it clear that he’s not sold on second-year quarterback and incumbent starter Brandon Weeden. Campbell will get every chance to earn the starting job this summer. Even if he claims the gig, the lack of weapons in Cleveland’s passing attack makes him a mediocre fantasy option.

COLT MCCOY TRADED TO 49ERS
McCoy goes from a backup in one of the league’s worst offenses to being one in one of the NFL’s most dynamic offensive attacks. Either way he’s player that has no fantasy value. Even if Colin Kaepernick goes down and he’s get a shot for playing time it’s hard to imagine him becoming a factor.

These players are part of a growing list of signal callers to find a new home this offseason:

Alex Smith (KC) – Still the biggest move at the position
Matt Hasselbeck (IND)
Matt Cassel (MIN)
Ryan Fitzpatrick (TEN)
Drew Stanton (ARZ)
David Garrard (NYJ)
Bruce Gradkowski (PIT)
Josh Johnson (CIN)

Fantasy Football, NFL , , ,

Look Ahead: Seattle Seahawks

29. August 2012  - Published by Jimmy Dinsmore

INSIDE THE NUMBERS
Don’t ever be one of those fantasy owners that gives too much credibility to the preseason. If you do, then you’d think the Seattle Seahawks are Super Bowl contenders and an offensive juggernaut (which they’re NOT). Through week 3 of the preseason, the Seahawks are the top-ranked offense, averaging 33.7 points per game. Last year they were the 21st overall offensive squad. So then, the truth probably lies somewhere in the middle for this year’s squad. Offensive improvement is in store, but expect the Hawks to move into the teens in overall offensive ranking.

SCHEDULE
Seattle has the 11th most difficult in the NFL, according to Vegas. With the stout San Francisco defense on their schedule twice, that doesn’t bode well for the Seahawk offense. They also face the entire AFC East and NFC North and even have to face the Dallas Cowboys in Week 2. So, it will be a tough road to tow for their offense, but many of these same opponents, as well as two against St. Louis and two against Arizona, make the Seahawk defense an attractive option.

STUD
Marshawn Lynch
is quietly one of the most prolific running backs in the NFL. Last year, Lynch went into Beast Mode and put up 1,200 yards rushing, 12 TDs and even had 28 catches as well. That’s good enough for RB1 status. With some off-season legal issues with Lynch, and having just signed a nice big contract, will Lynch still perform at stud level? I expect so, and with other offensive upgrades, Lynch will have less defenses scheming against him.

DUD
Hopefully you’re not one of those fantasy owners that’s attracted to big names, like bugs are to a zapper. If so, then look away. The Seahawks signed Terrell Owens to some fanfare this offseason. Some were professing this is his big break. And others saw through it. If you haven’t had your draft yet, avoid TO at all costs. Seattle cut him and he may or may not catch on with another team. He has no fantasy value. Now or ever.

SLEEPER
The Seahawks drafted running back Robert Turbin in the fourth round this year. And, Turbin has proven his worth in the preseason. Thus far he’s rushed for 151 yards and a touchdown averaging 4.4 yards per carry. This means Turbin has solidified his role as Lynch’s backup, and also warrants being drafted in almost all leagues, and definitely as a Lynch handcuff. Should Lynch get suspended or injured, Turbin is someone to consider starting every week and in keeper/dynasty leagues, Turbin has a lot of upside.

NEW ADDITIONS
The Seahawks signed another veteran receiver, who comes with much less fanfare. Braylon Edwards arrived to Seahawks camp as someone who may not win a job. Edwards has survived the cuts and finds himself as a viable fantasy option in deeper leagues, and as a bye-week replacement. If Sidney Rice continues to have health issues, Edwards could make a sneaky play for your fantasy squad.

POSITION BATTLE
The Seahawks opened their checkbooks and paid Matt Flynn to come be the quarterback of the future. His only apparent competition for the job was Tavaris Jackson, who has now been shipped off to Buffalo. Little did fantasy owners or most experts see rookie Russell Wilson as the man who would beat out Flynn for the job under center. But with his preseason performance, that’s what appears to have happened in the Pacific Northwest. The 5’11” QB threw for 464 yards and 5 TDs in the preseason and scrambled all over the place for another 150 yards rushing. Meanwhile Flynn was quite pedestrian 102 passing yards and no TDs. It was Flynn’s job to lose, and that’s what he did. Wilson is rising up draft boards and is an intriguing fantasy player, especially in dynasty/keeper formats. I’m still not sold on Wilson and will likely recommend not reaching for him based on two preseason games. Consider Wilson a high risk/high reward guy. Meanwhile Flynn is someone to not draft, but keep on a watch list as a waiver wire snatch should Wilson struggle. If you’re in an especially deep league where you can have a big bench, Lynch would be a decent handcuff grab for those who take the chance on Wilson.

BENCH BUILDER
Zach Miller
is an uninspiring fantasy tight end. More hype than anything else, Miller disappoints more times than not. But, in a league where you have to draft and start a tight end, you can do worse than Miller as your bye-week fill in at the tight end position. Just don’t expect too much from him and he will be fine on your bench. The equally-overrated Kellen Winslow is on the squad too, and you can almost flip a coin as to which of these guys you’ll want to disappoint your squad, and draft late in your draft (if you must).

Fantasy Football, NFL , , , , , , ,

NFL: Top Free Agent Signings

10. April 2012  - Published by Dan Clasgens

There have been hundreds of free agent signings thus far around the NFL. Here are a dozen of moves that should make the biggest impact:

Peyton Manning (DEN) – After trying their hand with Tim Tebow a year ago, the Broncos now turn to Manning to get them back to the promise land. If the future Hall of Famer can shed the neck issues and regain his throwing strength he could pay big dividends over the next couple of seasons in Denver.

Vincent Jackson (TB) – Jackson became a malcontent in San Diego and continuously has battled injuries. He now gets a fresh slate in Tampa Bay where the Bucs have made big offseason movement. With Mike Williams and Kellen Winslow being nice compliments and a young quarterback like Josh Freeman it could be big things ahead for the former Charger.

Mario Williams (BUF) – Buffalo had to make a splash and were in desperate need of improving one of the league’s worst defensive fronts and by landing Williams they did both.  Adding Mark Anderson from New England to go along with Williams was icing on the cake.

Brandon Lloyd (NE) – Being reunited with Josh McDaniels can’t be overlooked. The journeyman receiver had a career year playing under McDaniels in Denver and now he gets Tom Brady throwing him the ball. The presence of Wes Welker and tight ends Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez could limit his targets, but expect a big year ahead for Lloyd.

Matt Flynn (SEA) – Though he still has plenty to prove the fact remains he’s the best quarterback Pete Carroll has brought in since arriving to Seattle. That’s not saying much considering the other two were Tavaris Jackson and Charlie Whitehurst. Flynn had options and chose to go to the Seahawks. The last free-agent, backup quarterback that left Green Bay for the Emerald City was Matt Hasselbeck and that didn’t turn out too bad.

Cortland Finnegan (STL) – Finnegan was the easily the best cornerback on the open market and his former head coach Jeff Fischer knew it. He joins a young and overrated defense in St. Louis. It might not be this year that the Rams are ready to compete, but clearly they’re going in the right direction.

Brandon Jacobs (SF) – While they lost out to Manning, the 49ers did have several new pieces to its offense already this offseason. None may prove more valuable than Jacobs, who gives the team a nice compliment to Frank Gore and youngster Kendall Hunter. The loss of Jacobs will be felt in New York as much as his impact will be made on the 49ers.

Michael Bush (CHI) – One of the more surprising signings was Bush going to the Bears. However, with Matt Forte entering the last year of his deal, coming off a major injury and threatening to hold out the team grabbed some nice insurance policy on the cheap. Bush is going to be in the mix with or without the incumbent Forte.

Peyton Hillis (KC) – With Jamal Charles returning from a season-long ACL injury a year ago, the Chiefs found a nice compliment in Hillis. Just like Thomas Jones did in 2010, Hillis is going to get plenty of looks in the Chiefs’ offense. His receiving skills out of the backfield will prove to be an asset.

Pierre Garcon (WAS) – Garcon got paid big time to come to DC and with the Redskins likely to draft Robert Griffin III with the second overall pick in the draft, they needed some targets. Garcon still found a way to be productive in Indy last year through the Manningless mess.

Robert Meachem (NO) – Chargers coach Norv Turner has already promised big things for Meachem, who was inconsistent in the Saints’ offense. With Vincent Jackson no longer in the picture though there will be plenty of chances for Meachem in San Diego’s revamped receiving corps to make a splash.

LaRon Landry (NYJ) – Part of the Jets struggles last year on defense was the result of not being able to stop the run from the secondary. In Landry, Rex Ryan gets a physical, hard-hitting safety that allows him to do what he does best.

COMPLETE FREE AGENT SIGNINGS (FFToolbox.com)

Fantasy Football, NFL , , , , , , ,

2012 NFL Free Agents - Offense

30. January 2012  - Published by Dan Clasgens

2012 free agency opens on the afternoon of March 13. Here's a look at some of the top players on offense...

QUARTERBACKS
*Drew Brees
Matt Flynn
Kyle Orton
Chad Henne
Alex Smith
Jason Campbell

RUNNING BACKS
*Ray Rice
*Matt Forte
*Michael Bush
Marshawn Lynch
Peyton Hillis
Cedric Benson
Mike Tolbert
Kevin Smith
Jason Snelling
Justin Forsett
BenJarvus Green-Ellis
Tim Hightower

WIDE RECEIVERS
Vincent Jackson
*Dwayne Bowe
*Wes Welker
Brandon Lloyd
Marques Colston
DeSean Jackson
Stevie Johnson
Reggie Wayne
Robert Meachem
Mario Manningham
Pierre Garcon
Laurent Robinson
Braylon Edwards

TIGHT ENDS
*Jermichael Finley
Fred Davis
Martellus Bennett
John Carlson
Jacob Tamme

OFFENSIVE LINEMEN
Carl Nicks
Jared Gaither
Ben Grubbs
Evan Mathis
Chris Myers
Jeff Backus
Kareem McKenzie
Jake Scott
Chilo Rachal
Samson Satele
Bobbie Williams 

COMPLETE LIST (NFLTradeRumors.com)

Fantasy Football, NFL , , , , , , ,

Draft: Fantasy QB's

21. May 2008  - Published by Dan Clasgens

Unlike the position of running back and wide receiver, it is hard to expect too much from a quarterback during their rookie campaigns. They often sit on the sidelines longer than the other skill positions and usually seem to have a larger learning curve as they get familiar with not only the speed of the game, but mastering the playbook and the ability to read defenses as well. Still, there are a handful of rookie signal callers that you will want to keep your eyes on.

FOUR TO WATCH
1 (3). Atlanta Falcons: Matt Ryan, Boston College
The Michael Vick scandal put a black eye on the Falcons' season and the team's image. Now, they finally close the book on the Vick Era by making Ryan the thrid overall selection in April's draft. Ryan is smart enough to learn the system quickly and his talent is good enough and the competition at the postion is bad enough that there is a real possibility that he could start in Week 1. Still, despite some talent on offense with Roddy White coming off a breakout campaign and the off-season of the highly coveted running back Michael Turner, Ryan is facing an uphill battle and should still be avoided in re-draft leagues.  The long-term outlook is a bit brighter and with him likely to be the first on the list to take over the reigns of the offense he should be the first QB taken in rookie drafts.

1 (18). Batlimore Ravens: Joe Flacco, Delaware
The 6-foot-7 Flacco has a great arm and decent speed for his size, but I still can't figure out why the Ravens traded all the way up to No. 18 overall to get him.  I guess when you have Kyle Boller and Troy Smith holding down the fort, you go after the guy you want because you are going to need him.  There's no doubt that Flacco could get involved early on this year, but with a whole new coaching system being put in place, a team that is getting older, and Kyle Boller standing is in way, I don't expect much from Flacco in 2008.  Like Ryan, he is appealing in dynasty and keeper leagues where you can afford to stash a guy away for a year or two.

2 (56). Green Bay Packers: Brian Brohm, Louisville
The pick of Brohm is nice value here as I think he could end of being the best of the class at the position, but I do find it interesting that the Packers went there. Aaron Rodgers will finally get his chance in Green Bay with Brett Favre having retired. However, this pick clearly signifies that Rodgers may be on the short leash. I still recommend playing the wait-and-see approach with Brohm though. His long-term outlook is cloudy at this point.

2 (57). Miami Dolphins: Chad Henne, Michigan
Henne is going to have every opportunity to grab the starting job in Miami this summer. He was forced to battle through injuries during his senior season at Michigan, but his performance of the team's upset of Florida in the bowl game shows us that he is operating at 100%. I don't believe his style fits Parcells' philosophy, but he is major upgrade over last year's second round pick John Beck, who will also be in the mix. He gets the slight edge over Brohm on my board, but still should be No. 3 in the pecking order of fantasy rankings.


OTHER QUARTERBACKS DRAFTED
3 (94). New England Patriots: Kevin O'Connell, San Diego State
5 (137). Minnesota Vikings: John David Booty, USC
5 (156). Pittsburgh Steelers: Dennis Dixon, Oregon
5 (160). Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Josh Johnson, San Diego
5 (162). Tennessee Titans: Eric Ainge, Tennessee
6 (186). Washington Redskins: Colt Brennan, Hawaii
6 (198). New York Giants: Andre Woodson, Kentucky
7 (209). Green Bay Packers: Matt Flynn, LSU
7 (223). Houston Texans: Alex Brink, Washington St.


MORE ANALYSIS
Rookie RB's
Rookie WR's
Podcast: Fantasy Playbook (mp3)

Fantasy Football , , , , , , , ,