Playoff Picks: Conference Championships

15. January 2009  - Published by Dan Clasgens

Three more freakin' games, that's all we have left of the NFL in 2008. This weekend's slate looks nothing like I predicted in the NFC, but I pretty much nailed it in the AFC. Either way it makes for an interesting  Sunday of football. Here's how I see the games unfolding this weekend:

PHILADELPHIA (9-7) at ARIZONA (9-6-1) - Eagles favored by 4
Outlook: For the thrird straight week it's hard to find anybody that wants to pick the Cardinals, but they just keep finding ways to win. In my mind they've already beaten two teams that are just as good as Philly.

The Eagles are riding high, but outside of drilliing an overrated and unfocused Cowboys' team to get into the playoffs, outlasting a Tavaris Jackson-led Vikings' squad, and a Giants' offense that failed to find an idenity what have the Eagles done? All that's right, they tied the freakin' Bengals, got drilled by the Ravens, and blew a must-win game late in the year to a weak Redskins' team.

Arizona looked terrible down the stretch of the regular season, but post-season surge of the defense and the committment to get a running game going has breathed life into the Cardinals at the perfect time. They looked impressive against Atlanta and shut down Michael Turner. Then they went to Carolina and did something eight other teams couldn't do this year as they beat the Panthers. And not just beat them, but drill them.

The Eagles jumped out to a 21-0 lead before rolling the Cards on Thanksgiving Night, but this time its in Arizona and believe it or not I am going to think that makes a difference.

My Pick: CARDS 24, EAGLES 20

Fantasy Clicks: PLAY - Donovan McNabb, Kurt Warner, Brian Westbrook, Edgerrin James, Tim Hightower, Anquan Boldin, Larry Fitzgerald, DeSean Jackson, Brent Celek, David Akers, Neil Rackers; DON'T PLAY - Correll Buckhalter, Kevin Curtis, Reggie Brown, L.J. Smith, Eagles DEF, Cardinals DEF


BALTIMORE (11-5) at PITTSBURGH (12-4) - Steelers favored by 6

Outlook: The Steelers have already beaten the Ravens twice this season and beating a team three times in one season is a tough task, but it's not unheard off. Just ask the 1999 Jaguars, they went 14-2 before with both losses coming to the Titans, then they lost to Tennessee in the playoffs. It happens. Baltimore has had quite a run to get this point, but they look tired. They haven't had a bye since Week 2 and the veterans on the defense have played at such a high level I think that could hurt them.

Meanwhile, Pittsburgh is enjoying fresh life in the running game as Fast Willie Parker finally gets to 100%. His speed to the outside could present problems for the Ravens, who are likely to be without linebacker Terrell Suggs. Ben Roethlisberger is going to be playing looser than Joe Flacco, but that could lead into turnovers. To me that is the key to this game. If Baltimore is going to have a chance they will need to limit Big Ben and capitalize on mistakes. I don't see the Steelers, who have the best homefield advantage in the league, making too many mistakes though.

My Pick: STEELERS 20, RAVENS 13

Fantasy Clicks: PLAY - Ben Roethlisberger, Willie Parker, LeRon McClain, Santonio Holmes, Hines Ward, Derrick Mason, Heath Miller, Jeff Reed, Matt Stover, Steelers DEF, Ravens DEF; DON'T PLAY -Willis McGahee, Mewelde Moore, Mark Clayton, Nate Washington, Todd Heap

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Playoff Picks: Divisional Round

8. January 2009  - Published by Dan Clasgens

Man each week the NFL season draws closer to an end, and each week the depression kicks in a little more. Still, there are some great games on tap this weekend and I am going to try to enjoy them to the fullest. Let's take a look each game as I tell you how I see things unfolding and give you my picks.

BALTIMORE (12-5) at TENNESSEE (13-3) - Titans favored by 3
Outlook: The Titans won the Week 5 meeting 13-10 in Baltimore and this one promises to be another slugfest. Baltimore comes into the game off an impressive opening-round victory and seem to be clicking on all cylinders. In the Week 5 meeting the Ravens controlled the clock and limited Tennessee to 47 yards rushing. Tennessee will need more effective running the ball this time around. Ravens' QB Joe Flacco threw two picks in the first meeting, but hasn't been turning the ball over as much of late. The two teams are extremely similar statisically in PaYd per game, RuYd per game, points scored, points allowed, give-aways, and take-aways. The game could easily come down to which team can put points on the board with their defense of special teams.

My Pick: Ravens 20, Titans 16...The one underdog I like to win straight up this week.

Fantasy Clicks: PLAY - Chris Johnson, LeRon McClain, Derrick Mason, Bo Scaife, Rob Bironas, Matt Stover, Ravens DEF, Titans DEF; DON'T PLAY - Joe Flacco, Kerry Collins, LenDale White, Any Titans' WR, Todd Heap.


ARIZONA (10-7) at CAROLINA (12-4) - Panthers favored by 10
Outlook: Talk about two teams that are completely different, the Cardinals and Panthers have gotten to this point in completely different manners. The Panthers have a top-notched running game and an above average defense. The Cardinals boast the league's most prolific passing attack, but struggle to move the ball on the ground and has played inconsistent this year on defense. The game is in Carolina and that could be the difference. Arizona is just 3-5 away from the friendly confines of the desert and and the Panthers are a perfect 8-0 at Bank of America Stadium. Kurt Warner has passed for twice as many TD's as Jake Delhomme (30:15), but Edgerrin James and Tim Hightower collectively were nearly outproduced by the Panthers' No. 2 running back Jonathan Stewart on the ground (913 yards to 836 yards). DeAngelo Williams finished thrid in the NFL in rushing with 1515 yards.

My Pick: Carolina 31, Arizona 20...The Cards will have some success on offense, but will not be able to stop the run this week.

Fantasy Clicks: PLAY - Jake Delhomme, Kurt Warner, DeAngelo Williams, Edgerrin James, Jonathan Stewart, Steve Smith, Larry Fitzgerald, Steve Breaston, Anquan Boldin (game-time decision), Mushin Muhammad, John Kasay, Neil Rackers; DON'T PLAY - Tim Hightower, Stephen Spach, Donte Rosario, Panthers DEF, Cardinals DEF.


PHILADELPHIA (10-6-1) at NY GIANTS (13-3) - Giants favored by 4.5

Outlook: I am still trying to figure out the Eagles even got this point. It wasn't too long ago I went and watched them tie the Bengals. Much has happened since then and the Eagles have won 4 of their last 5 games to get to this point. The Giants are the defending champs and come into the game well rested. While the Eagles finished the season red hot, the Giants were a bit sluggish down the stretch as they dealt with problems on and off the field. The two teams split in their head-to-head match-ups with Philly, winning 20-14 in Week 14 at the Meadowlands. Eli Manning has looked rough down the stretch (only averaging 153 PaYd per game w/out Plaxico). The G-Men will enjoy a healthy return of Brandon Jacobs.

My Pick: Giants 20, Eagles 14...the rubber match should be a good one, but I still like the champs coming off two weeks of rest.

Fantasy Clicks: PLAY - Donovan McNabb, Brian Westbrook, Brandon Jacobs, Derrick Ward, DeSean Jackson, Kevin Curtis, Domenik Hixon, Kevin Boss, Brent Celek, Eagles DEF, David Akers, John Carney; DON'T PLAY - Eli Manning, Correll Buckhalter, Amani Toomer, Giants DEF.


SAN DIEGO (9-8) at PITTSBURGH (12-4) - Steelers favored by 6

Outlook: A little over a month ago I pegged the Chargers as the most overrated team and declared Norv Turner one of the worst coaches in the league. It's amazing what five straight wins can do for job somebody's job security. Behind the Pro Bowl caliber play of Phillip Rivers and the speedy Darren Sproles San Diego has caught a bolt of lightning. Pittsburgh's defense is as good as ever and quarterback Ben Roethlisberger continues to find ways to win. The Steelers' ground attack has been disappointing, but it hasn't matter much as they've continue to beat good team after good team. They have the best homefield advantage of any team in the playoffs and that could make the difference here. San Diego lost at Pittsburhg in Week 11 in the first 11-10 game in NFL history.

My Pick: Pittsburgh 21, Chargers 14...as much as I hate them the Steelers are my Super Bowl pick right now and I am sticking with it!

Fantasy Clicks: PLAY - Ben Roethlisberger, Willie Parker, Hines Ward, Santonio Holmes, Vincent Jackson, Antonio Gates, Heath Miller, Steelers; DON'T PLAY - Phillip Rivers, Darren Sproles (fear the Steelers' D), LaDainian Tomlinson (hurt), Chris Chambers, Chargers DEF, Nate Kaeding, Jeff Reed.

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