Seahawks Acquire Harvin

11. March 2013  - Published by Dan Clasgens

Just a day away before NFL Free Agency is set to begin the Seattle Seahawks started their off-season shopping early as they traded for Minnesota Vikings’ wide receiver Percy Harvin.

Harvin, 24, is one of the game’s most explosive playmakers. Despite having a year remaining on his contract the disgruntled wideout made it clear that he no longer wanted to be in Minnesota and demanded a trade.

Rather than risk an ugly situation and a potential holdout, the Vikings sent him to Seattle in exchange for a reported first round and seventh-round pick in April’s draft and mid-round pick in 2014, according to FOXSports’ Jay Glazer.

The move gives Minnesota the 23rd and 25th overall pick in this season’s draft.

Harvin played just eight full games in 2012 after suffering a season-ending ankle injury. He had off-season surgery and appears to be ready for the start of camp.

Durability has been a concern with Harvin. Counting the seven games he missed last season though, he’s only missed 10 games for his entire career. He is often dinged up, but has played through injuries on many occasions.

You can’t argue his stats though and what he does on the field. In a half of a season of work a year ago he registered 672 yards receiving and had another 96 yards rushing. Over a full season that is more than a 1,500 total yard pace. That doesn’t count what he does on special teams either.

After a great run a year ago behind rookie quarterback Russell Wilson, this offense is just starting to come together. Marshawn Lynch carried for sometime but Seattle’s new three-headed monster is going to make them a strong contender in the NFC.

FANTASY TAKE
With the threat of a holdout over and a reunion with offensive coordinator Darrell Bevell, his former coach in Minnesota, expect Harvin to flourish. He’s easily a top fantasy wideout with top-five upside.  He is going to be even better in PPR formats.

Wilson and Lynch both get a tick in their rankings as well. The bigger boost will go to Wilson. I’ve got him No. 9 in my current rankings, but he’ll jump a spot or two in my April update.  Lynch was a solid tier 1 RB/high-end tier 2 RB1 option worthy of a top-five fantasy pick before the trade. The arrival of Harvin could mean a dip in the 315 attempts we saw a year ago, but fresher legs and less-stacked defensive fronts should offset the difference with more big plays.

It likely will have a slightly negative impact on the fantasy rankings of current receivers, Golden Tate and Sidney Rice. Both were only worth roster space as bench players to begin with.

Conventional wisdom would suggest Adrian Peterson to take a slight hit with opposing defenses having less to worry about. Peterson's 2012 numbers suggest differently:

Peterson first eight games of 2012: 151 rushes, 775 yards, 5.1 yards per carry, four touchdowns
Peterson final eight games of 2012: 197 rushes, 1322 yards, 6.7 yards per carry, eight touchdowns

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Look Ahead: Minnesota Vikings

2. September 2012  - Published by Jimmy Dinsmore

INSIDE THE NUMBERS
The passing game was completely inept for Minnesota, on both sides of the ball. They ranked 28th in passing and 26th on defense against the pass. So, in order for them to be successful, the Vikes will need to see big improvement in both of these areas. A lot of that will depend on whether Christian Ponder can develop into a consistent quarterback, who more manages the game than anything. And they’ll need Adrian Peterson to return from his torn ACL, so they can ground and pound opponents.

SCHEDULE
The Vikings have the 7th toughest schedule in the NFL according to Vegas oddsmakers with seven quality opponents on the schedule including a Week 16 game versus Houston. In fact, be aware of the difficulty down the stretch of the Viking schedule. After their Week 10 bye, they play the Bears twice, Green Bay twice, and Houston. So, this could affect your fantasy squad in the playoffs.

STUD
Percy Harvin
is quietly one of the most dynamic, exciting playmakers in the NFL. And, great news for fantasy owners, his ADP falls into the fourth round area of 12-team leagues. That’s amazing considering that Harvin had 87 catches, almost 1,000 yards receiving and 6 TDs. Doesn’t sound quite like WR1 stuff right? Okay, factor in 52 rushes for 345 yards and 2 TDs and you’re getting there, right? Okay, if your league gives individual points for special teams, then Harvin threw in another TD on returns. That’s 9 total TDs, 1,300 combined yards and Harvin is a fantasy stud. I like him as a WR1. I like him so much that I’ve drafted him as such in two of my big fantasy leagues.

DUD
Okay, before I get called an idiot (I’m used to it) for putting Adrian Peterson down here, let me explain myself. Peterson tore his ACL on Christmas Eve. Even if you believe that Peterson is an athletic freak (and it’s hard to argue that), the stats are not good for players in their first year back from torn ACLs. So, I’m skeptical of all this AP will be ready for week 1 talk. And I’m skeptical that AP can put up those juicy fantasy numbers that he’s always put up, this year. All of this being said, if Peterson slips down your draft board, you have to take him, but I feel uneasy taking him as my RB1.

SLEEPER
In the year of the tight end, everyone is looking for the next Rob Gronkowski. Kyle Rudolph, and his 6’6” frame just might be that guy. Well, maybe not Gronk good, but I expect Rudolph to be an excellent fantasy tight end. As owners scramble to grab Gronk, Gates, Graham, Hernandez, hold back, grab the RB depth, and wait on your tight end. Choosing Rudolph late could be a huge impactful move for your fantasy squad.

NEW ADDITIONS
(Insert editorial opinion here) The Bengals were fools for not writing a decent paycheck for Jerome Simpson. They coached him, groomed him, and saw the fruits of those labors finally show up last season. And then they let him walk away and sign with the Vikings. What a nice addition for Minnesota. Simpson will be a great compliment alongside Harvin. He had 50 catches for 700+ last year. This year, I expect about those same numbers, but maybe more than the 4 TD total from last year. Now, remember, Simpson is suspended the first three games of the season, so that’s a decent chunk of your fantasy schedule and drops Simpson’s value a decent amount.

POSITION BATTLE

With Simpson out the first three games, the Vikings will need to find another WR to fill-in for him. The battle between Michael Jenkins and Devin Aromashadu is the most compelling, but has little effect for fantasy squads as neither are really worth drafting except in extremely deep leagues.

BENCH BUILDER
In the four games he started in Peterson’s absence, Toby Gerhardt proved to be a serviceable running back. He scored 3 TDs including two receiving, and went over the 100 yard rushing mark in week 16. With Peterson’s health a question mark, Gerhardt is an absolute must handcuff if you do draft AP, and a nice bench builder in all leagues, because regardless, Peterson won’t have nearly the touches he had last year, and those remnant touches will fall to Gerhardt.

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NFL Returning To L.A.?

11. June 2011  - Published by Dan Clasgens

It’s looking more and more as if the NFL will soon be returning to Los Angeles. The Anschutz Entertainment Group wants to build a downtown stadium in the nation’s second largest market.  CEO Tim Leiweke has spoken with representatives from the Minnesota Vikings, San Diego Chargers, Oakland Raiders, St. Louis Rams and Jacksonville Jaguars, company spokesman Michael Roth told The Associated Press.

AEG's $1 billion plan for a 72,000-seat stadium on part of the city's convention center campus is one of two competing proposals that aim to bring pro football back to Los Angeles 15 years after the Rams and Raiders left the nation's second-largest market within months of one another.

The team that makes the most sense is Jacksonville. The team has struggled to sell out games and until last year had many of its home games blacked out. Throw into the mix that they are one of the smallest markets in professional support and have never been able to lure fans from the Dolphins and Bucs across the state and it simply makes the most sense.

One thing is for sure, no matter which team moves to L.A. (assuming it actually happens), realignment is likely.  If the Jags are the ones to move they won’t stay in the AFC South.
A simple fix would be to move the Jaguars to the NFC West, trading places with the St. Louis Rams who would go to the AFC South.

NFC WEST
Arizona Cardinals
Los Angeles Jaguars
San Francisco 49ers
Seattle Seahawks

AFC SOUTH
Indianapolis Colts
Houston Texans
St. Louis Rams
Tennessee Titans

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Inside The Numbers: Favre Streak

14. December 2010  - Published by Dan Clasgens

Some interesting numbers relating to the end of Brett Favre’s Streak…

3 – Number of times Favre retired during streak.

4 – The age when the streak began of Bills’ linebacker Arthur Moats, who knocked Favre out of Week 13’s game that effectively ended his streak.

23 – Number of different quarterbacks to start a game for the Chicago Bears since Favre’s streak began.

117 – Number of coaches that have led NFL team on to field since streak started.

190 – Number of games Bengals have loss since Favre beat them in Game 1 of streak (9/20/92)

205 – Number of consecutive starts Peyton Manning has made (through Week 14)

238 – Number of different players to start at quarterback in NFL game.

297 – Number of consecutive regular-season games Favre played in.

321 - Number of consecutive games (including playoffs) Favre played in.

507 – Total number of TD passes by Favre during streak.

6,259 – Total completions during streak.

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Video: Meterodome Roof Collapses

12. December 2010  - Published by Dan Clasgens

Still can't get over this LIVE shot of the roof collapsing in Minnesota...

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Vikings Cut Moss

1. November 2010  - Published by Dan Clasgens

The Minnesota Vikings shocked the football world on Monday when they waived Randy Moss, just four weeks after trading for the Pro Bowl wide receiver.

Moss, who cost the Vikings a third-round draft pick, had only one catch for 8 yards against the Patriots. In four games for the Vikings, he had 13 catches for 174 yards and two touchdowns.

Head coach Brad Childress told players in a meeting that Moss would no longer be with the team. The two butted heads from beginning

"Randy is very sad to find out about being waived by the Vikings this morning," Moss' agent, Joel Segal, said in an e-mail to the Star Tribune. "He has and always will remain fond of the fans in Minnesota. We will let the process of the waiver wire take its course and we will move on from there."

FANTASY IMPACT: Owners should hold on to Moss for now and see where he ends up. As for the Vikings’ passing game Brett Favre and Percy Harvin, both who are dealing with injuries, lose a bit of their luster. The team will likely lean more on running back Adrian Peterson, but overall Minnesota’s offense is a train wreck right now. Proceed with caution.

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NFL’s Biggest Disappointments

27. October 2010  - Published by Dan Clasgens

There are seven weeks down in the NFL season. It’s time to start looking at which teams are the biggest disappointments:

Dallas Cowboys (1-5) – The Super Bowl will be in Dallas this year, but the Cowboys won’t be in it. The team has looked terrible and struggled to find an identity. Now with Tony Romo (broken clavicle) out 6-8 weeks you can officially stick a fork in the Cowboys.

San Francisco 49ers (1-6) – Every expert on the web picked the 49ers to be to lock pick to win the lowly NFC West. San Fran has not delivered. They’ve already fired their offense coordinator and head coach Mike Singletary may be the next to go.

San Diego Chargers (2-5) – It appears as if getting rid of LaDainian Tomlinson was not a wise move. L.T. is lighting it up for the Jets and the Chargers are struggling to move the ball on the ground. The team may be getting top receiver Vincent Jackson back, but it is going to be too little, too late for the ‘Bolts.

Cincinnati Bengals (2-4) – In 2009, the Bengals ran the table inside the division and won the AFC North. However, the team has dropped eight of 11 games dating back to last season and is train wreck waiting to happen. Carson Palmer looks like a shell of his former self and the defense has managed just six sacks in six games.

Minnesota Vikings (2-4) – Brett Favre’s return to the Twin Cities has not been the honeymoon many were expecting. The veteran’s interception rate is double of last season and now he appears to be hobbled. Getting Randy Moss was a nice gesture, but time is running out for Minnesota to get back into the NFC playoff picture.

New Orleans Saints (4-3) – New Orleans is the only team with a winning record on the list. Still, the Super Bowl champs have looked far from super in 2010. The defense is not coming up with the big plays it did a year ago and Drew Brees has struggled with consistency due to injuries in the backfield and a bum knee.

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Fantasy Impact: Sidney Rice Injury

25. August 2010  - Published by Dan Clasgens

The news wasn’t good this week surrounding Minnesota Vikings wide receiver Sidney Rice as he underwent surgery on Monday after failing to recover from a playoff hip injury.

The team had hoped he would heal over the summer, but went little progress was made the wideout opted to go under the knife.  He’s expected to miss at least eight weeks and to start the season on the PUP list. The team could eventually opt to place him on the injured reserve, ending his season.

Rice emerged as a low-end fantasy WR1 during 2009 when he finished with 83 catches for 1,312 yards (15.8 avg.) and eight touchdowns (with 100 yards and/or a touchdown in 10 of his last 14 games).

In leagues where you can have 16 or more players on the roster, Rice could be worth a stab as a WR5 or WR6 and be stashed away for the season, but just be prepared to get nothing out of him for at least half of the NFL season. 

With Rice out, fantasy owners that already drafted him are left scrambling.  In addition, those that have yet to draft their teams must consider the impact:

QB Brett Favre – The veteran just got to camp and is likely going to need time to get into game speed and losing his No. 1 target is not going to help. Expecting Favre to equal last year’s output is unrealistic though he should still prove to be a capable low end fantasy quarterback No. 1 or solid QB2 in shallower leagues regardless of Rice’s presence.

RB Adrian Peterson – Peterson is going to see even more targets in the Vikings’ passing attack with Rice out. In addition, the team will likely run more often. With rookie Toby Gerhardt progressing slowly in the Vikings’ offense, A-Pete could approach 400 touches and get 50-plus receptions. He remains as one of fantasy football’s top options.

WR Percy Harvin – Assuming the second-year wideout can get over the migraine issues that have sidelined him in training camp, Harvin is in position to become the team’s No. 1 wideout.  While owners certainly need to keep their eyes on his medical concerns, Harvin projects to be a low-end No. 2 fantasy wideout and a mid-round draft selection (6-9th round). Just be prepared to deal with your own headaches if you take a flier on him.

WR – Bernard Berrian – Berrian’s stock is already on the rise with Rice sidelined and will stand to get an additional boost if Harvin misses time.  He won’t offer enough consistency though to be anything more than a WR3 or WR 4 option. You could do much worse when building the bench for your fantasy team.
WR – Javon Walker – There will likely be some owner in your league that takes a stab at Walker, but don’t let it be you.  He is 31 and has played in just 11 games during the last two seasons.  He hasn’t eclipsed 300 yards or scored multiple touchdowns in a season since 2006.

TE Visante Shiancoe – Shiancoe emerged in the fantasy world last year when he scored 11 times on just 56 catches. He will remain a red-zone target for Favre, who loves throwing to tight ends. In addition, with Rice sidelined his targets are certainly to rise.  Tight end is deep so he is still only low-end starting fantasy option but will provide nice value for owners that wait until the big guys go off the board.

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Favre Retires Again?

3. August 2010  - Published by Dan Clasgens

In a bit of a surprise move, Vikings’ quarterback Brett Favre has decided to retire rather than return as the starter for Minnesota.

The Minneapolis Star-Tribune first reported the story as they claimed that Favre had text multiple teammates informing them of his decision.  However, in a press conference later Tuesday morning head coach Brad Childress claimed that Favre had yet to contact him and tell him directly that he was going to retire.

Favre, 40, is coming off an off-season ankle surgery and there is some speculation that his slow recovery from it are the reason he will likely opt to call it quits rather than return for a 20th NFL season.

It marks the third time that the longtime veteran has retired, so anything can still happen. Assuming it sticks, it leaves the Vikings to turn to Tavaris Jackson and Sage Rosenfels as their top two quarterbacks on the depth chart.

The move throws a wrinkle in the Vikings’ bid for a Super Bowl and makes the Green Bay Packers the clear-cut favorites in the NFC North.

****
FANTASY IMPACT:  The biggest hit for fantasy purposes falls with wide receivers Sidney Rice (already battling a hip injury) and Percy Harvin along with tight end Visanthe Shiancoe. All three will see their fantasy values dip heading into draft day.  As for Adrian Peterson it could have the reverse effect.  While defenses will definitely focus more on plugging the Vikings’ running game, the departure of Favre could mean five or more extra touchdowns for A-Pete. He remains an elite option.

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With the first pick . . .

20. July 2010  - Published by Jimmy Dinsmore

If you are fortunate to have landed your league's #1 spot in the draft consider yourself lucky, or if your league is like many, it means you might've been the worst team last year, and for that, well, better luck this year. In year's past, the first overall pick is usually a no brainer. Names like Tomlinson, Smith, Sanders, Rice, Davis have rolled off the tongues of giddy fantasy owners. And, more times than not, this is an impact pick. Last year's consensus pick was Adrian Peterson. And while he's no Ryan Leaf by any stretch, you could argue that the owner who selected Chris Johnson or Ray Rice or even Frank Gore got just as much value as the #1 overall pick. This year, there is no clear consensus.

Dinsmore, you are crazy, you are probably saying. What about Chris Johnson? Are you crazy? You gotta take him. He's a no brainer.

I am not bashing on the Titans running back and now with a new contract and happy, Johnson is certainly going to be taken by the majority of those who pick first. And I can't blame you. But . . . there's no way Johnson can repeat his ungodly numbers from last year. 2,000 yards is a once-in-a-lifetime milestone. So tamper back the yardage expectations. Here's a couple more names to think about before making your first pick:

Ray Rice: In a PPR league, you have to give a lot of thought to taking Rice first. He was targeted 101 times with 71 receptions. He is also a scoring machine and is easily the best weapon on the blooming Ravens offense. With Anquan Boldin now wearing purple, teams can't just focus on Rice. Ray Rice is a legitimate #1 overall option.

Adrian Peterson: Last year's #1 overall still has to be considered. He led all RBs with 18 TDs. If your league does not punish you for fumbles, Peterson's value is even higher. Gone is Chester Taylor to steal playing time, in is rookie Toby Gerhardt, who is a complete unknown. Peterson is still the man for the Vikings and can still be a stud you can count on. I would be a little worried about his fumblitis and his occassional nagging injury.

Maurice Jones Drew: Seriously, I know what you're saying. The little guy is good, but not #1 overall good. MJD has averaged double digit TDs over the last four years and has literally no competition in Jacksonville. No split carries, no running back-by-committee. Do I think MJD should be taken #1 overall? No, but you gotta look closely at him and definitely pull the trigger on him in the top four picks.

Frank Gore: The absolute darkhorse on this list. Gore has averaged more than 1,200 rushing yards and more than 50 receptions every year since 2006. The 49ers are considered to be an up-and-coming team and Gore figures to factor in huge. So, you could argue that the best is yet to come for Gore. He could be this year's Chris Johnson.

After much deliberation, if I had the #1 overall pick, I would either draft Johnson or shop around that top spot to someone who's jonesing for one of these aforementioned guys. Get some extra player or picks and slide down. If you are in the top 5 in your draft, you are going to get an absolute stud.

 

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