Fantasy Links: Playoff Rankings

5. January 2011  - Published by Dan Clasgens

Check out some of the latest playoff fantasy football rankings from around the web:

GSI Cheat Sheet: Week 18 (GetSportsInfo.com) - our picks for playoff fantasy football in Wildcard Weekend.

Playoff Fantasy Football Challenge (AllSportsPolls.com) - play with me in our Survivor style fantasy format.

NFL Playoff Cheat Sheet (PigSkinAddicitions) - one page position-by-position rankings for entire playoffs.

Position Projections (FantasySharks.com) - in-depth look at each position with projected stats for Wildcard Weekend.

Overall Playoff Rankings (ProFootballWeekly.com) - Fantasy rankings regardless of position, for the playoffs as a whole.

Week 18 PPR WR Rankings (FFL.com) - ranks the wide receivers in PPR formats.

Who To Start Rankings (FFToolbox.com) - look at each position's outlook for this weekend.

Matchups: Wildcard Round (Rotoworld.com) - a breakdown of each of this weekend's playoff matchups.

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Breakdown: Vikings at Saints

23. January 2010  - Published by Dan Clasgens

The NFC Conference Championship Game comes down to the two teams that everyone thought would be in the game for most of the season, the New Orleans Saints and the Minnesota Vikings.

The Saints rolled to 13 straight wins to start the year before dropping three straight games to finish out the regular season. They were impressive last week though, rolling the Arizona Cardinals 45-14.

The Vikings finished the regular season 12-4 and carried that momentum into last week’s divisional round match-up by handing the Cowboys a 34-3 defeat.

FOR VIKINGS TO WIN:  Minnesota needs to take the raucous crowd out of the game and try to slow down the Saints’ high-powered, quick scoring offense. It will be tough for the Vikings to win a shootout on the road. The best cure is to get Adrian Peterson involved early and often. The team’s leading rusher has failed to hit the century mark in eight straight and 10 of his last 11 games. New Orleans can be run on and if the Vikings are going to come out on top Peterson needs to be a major factor in this ballgame.

FOR SAINTS TO WIN:  The key to victory for New Orleans is keeping the pressure off of Drew Brees. The Pro Bowl quarterback has been rock solid at home this season throwing 23 touchdowns and turning the ball over just four times in nine games at the Superdome.  If the Vikings can approach the six sacks they had on Tony Romo last week this time around, they will throw a wrench into the Saints’ passing attack and force them to win the game on the ground. Statistically, the Saints have had success on the ground moving the ball for most of the season, but the Vikings are amongst the league’s best at plugging up the run.

KEY INJURIES:  SAINTS – WR Robert Meachem (ankle, probabale), TE Jeremy Shockey (knee, questionable), CB Malcom Jenkins (hamstring, questionable); VIKINGS – WR Percy Harvin (migraines, questionable), DE Ray Edwards (knee, questionable), DT Pat Williams (ankle/foot, questionable), DT Kevin Williams (knee, questionable).

WEATHER:  Dome

INSIDE THE NUMBERS:  Minnesota has a 18-7 lead in its all-time regular season series with New Orleans, and extended its winning streak over the Saints to four with a 30-27 road win in Week 5 of the 2008 season. Minnesota has won three straight at the Superdome since the Saints were 28-15 winners in a 2001 contest, a game that also marks New Orleans' most recent victory in the series.

WHAT VEGAS SAYS:  The line opened with the Saints -4 and quickly moved up to -4 ½. It stayed there for only a day before its descent to -4, then -3 ½, all due to early Vikings action and no early Saints money. The total hasn't budged from opening 53.

FINAL TAKE:  Flip a coin. As much as I like the Saints’ homefield advantage, I still think the Vikings have better overall talent.  While much has been made over the Drew Brees vs. Brett Favre match-up, and rightfully so, I am still banking on this game coming down to which running back steps up. I still see that being Adrian Peterson, who is due for a big game.

MY PICK:  VIKINGS 30, SAINTS 26

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Breakdown: Jets at Colts

21. January 2010  - Published by Dan Clasgens

NEW YORK JETS (11-7) AT INDIANAPOLIS COLTS (15-2)
Sunday, January 24 - 3:00 p.m. Eastern (CBS-TV)

Jets head coach Rex Ryan has been talking a good game and his team has been backing it up. Fresh off of four straight wins, including back-to-back road playoff victories, people are no longer accusing the Jets of backing into the playoffs or not belonging.

Ironically, the Colts sat many of their starters in the second half of Week 16’s match-up and lost a game that would have eliminated the Jets if they’d won it.

Indianapolis head coach Jim Caldwell opted to rest his players for a Super Bowl run rather than shoot for a perfect season. Now the Jets will get a chance to ruin Indy’s bid again. However, this time Peyton Manning and his boys won’t be heading to the sidelines early.

FOR JETS TO WIN:  They will need to rattle Peyton Manning. Yeah the Jets can run the football as good if not better than any team in the league and there defense is stellar, but if they don’t force Manning into an atypical performance their magical ride will come to abrupt halt. The Colts’ signal caller rarely turns the ball over, but if All-Pro corner Darrelle Revis can shutdown his side of the field and the Jets are successful in limiting Reggie Wayne and Dallas Clark, Manning could be contained. Another big key will be field position. The special teams need to make a big play or two to help give the Jets’ conservative offense some momentum. If rookie running back Shonn Greene gets a third straight 100-yard day and a score on the ground, I like the Jets chances for a U-P-S-E-T!

FOR COLTS TO WIN: Indianapolis needs to rely on something besides Peyton Manning. Their defense would be a good starting point. The unit showed some good signs of life coming off the bye in last week’s near shutout of the Ravens. It wouldn’t hurt the Colts’ chances if Joseph Addai actually decides to show up. They only managed 42 yards last week versus Baltimore and had six rushes that went for a loss. The Jets’ rushing D is even better. Addai needs to have a couple of big runs to keep some pressure off of Manning and help open up the passing game.  Young wideouts Pierre Garcon and Austin Collie have had breakout seasons for Indy. If the Colts are going to make to the Super Bowl, the duo will need to contribute.

KEY INJURIES:  No major injuries.

WEATHER:  Dome

INSIDE THE NUMBERS: With a wins on Sunday, the Jets can join the ‘05 Steelers and ‘07 Giants as the third team in the last five year to advance to the Super Bowl after winning three consecutive road games as a wild card team. Both the Steelers and Giants went on to win the Super Bowl.

WHAT VEGAS SAYS: The game opened up with the Colts favored by 7 points with the total set at 41.5, however most books have now bumped the number up to 8 with heavy early action on Indianapolis. The under is all drawing bettors’ attention as most casinos have it dropping down to 39.

FINAL TAKE: Those that think the Jets are flukes don’t know much about football. They have shown that shutdown defense and the ability to move the ball on the ground translates into January victories.  However, I simply cannot endorse rookie quarterback Mark Sanchez beating Peyton Manning on the road to win the AFC Championship. The game will be hard-fought and low scoring. Expect it to still be up for grabs well into the fourth quarter.

MY PICK:  COLTS 20, JETS 16

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Computer Keeps Picking Jets

21. January 2010  - Published by Dan Clasgens

I noticed that earlier this month when the playoff match-ups were, WhatIfSports.com, a website that simulates games, projected the Jets as their Super Bowl pick. Crazy, huh?

The website simulates each game 10,001 times. The inputs to the simulations of each upcoming game are based on a rigorous analysis of each team that considers strength-of-schedule-adjusted team and player ratings and then makes modifications for injuries and depth at each position.

Their projected scores for this week...

JETS 22, COLTS 21

SAINTS 29, VIKINGS 26

COMPLETE PROJECTIONS

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NFL: Conference Championships

19. January 2010  - Published by Dan Clasgens

Here is this Sunday's schedule...

NEW YORK JETS AT INDIANAPOLIS COLTS (-7.5, Over/Under 39) - 3:00 p.m. Eastern - CBS

MINNESOTA VIKINGS AT NEW ORLEANS SAINTS (-4, Over/Under 53) - 6:40 p.m. Eastern - FOX

Maybe some historical betting trends can offer some insight about the games...

Almost half of the conference title games since the 1970 merger (38 of 78) have been decided by 14 points or more.

Following is a list of point-spread breakdowns of AFC & NFC Championships since 1970.

Favorites/Underdogs (one pick 'em): 42-33-2
Favorites straight up: 50-27
Favored by 1-3 points: 12-9
Favored by 3 1/2-6 1/2 points: 12-12-2
Favored by 7-9 1/2 points: 14-4
Favored by 10 or more: 4-8

Home teams straight up: 52-26
Home teams vs. spread: 44-32-2
Home favorites vs. spread: 36-25-2

Home underdogs vs. spread: 8-6
Home pick'em vs. spread: 0-1
Overs/unders (since 1986): 26-20

MARGINS OF VICTORY
1-3 points: 9
4-6 points:  10
7-10 points:  11
11-13 points:  10
14 or more:  38

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Divisional Round: Final Take

18. January 2010  - Published by Dan Clasgens

Some final thoughts from this past weekend's NFL action:

SAINTS-CARDINALS
*So much for the rust. I was expecting the Cardinals' offense to produce a bit more, but it is about what I expected from the Saints' offense. The team's running game finally appears to be healthy as does tight end Jeremy Shockey. That spells big things ahead for Drew Brees, who looked pretty stellar on Saturday.

*Sharper shines. I really enjoy watching Darren Sharper play. He got robbed of an interception, but stilled turned in an outstanding performance versus the Cardinals. His ability to play centerfield in the secondary and come with some hard hitting is as good as anybody's in the league.

*The curtain call? There is a good chance that this could have been the last game of Kurt Warner's career. If that is indeed is the case, I will certainly miss him. He is no doubt a Hall of Famer in my mind and few stories in sports are as good as his from start to finish. I would be shocked if he returns after taking another hard pounding this year, including suffering yet another concussion.

*Not so Bush. Who was that guy wearing Reggie Bush's uniform. He was electrifying. Maybe it was simply the Cardinals' wretched defense or perhaps it was because Kim Kardashian was in the house. Whatever the case with his two touchdown were plays were amongst his best two efforts of the season.


COLTS-RAVENS

*Where did that come from? The Colts' defense outplayed the Ravens' defense, shutting down Baltimore's vaunted rushing attack. The unit is often lost in Peyton Manning's shadow and rightfully so, but if they play as well as they did on Saturday you can go ahead and crown them.

*Turnovers are key. The Ravens win games by winning the turnover battle. That was not the case here as they Colts finished with a plus-three turnover advantage. Throw in the fact the Colts held on to the ball for over 33 minutes in the contest and you realize that Indy beat Baltimore at their own game.

*Bye, bye, bye week jinx. With the win the Colts shed the stigma of struggling coming off of a playoff bye. They had dropped three straight games in such circumstances, but got the monkey off their backs on Saturday night.

*Manning good even when he's not.  Peyton Manning was far from perfect against Baltimore, but he made the key throws when they counted, did not make mistakes and the managed the game brilliantly. He finished by completing 30 of 44 passes for 246 yards, 2 TD's and an interception.


VIKINGS-COWBOYS
*Favre states his case.
Hey I'm not knocking the Packers for turning over the offense to Aaron Rodgers even though they didn't handle it well. However, I am going to knock the critics who all suggested that Brett Favre stay retired. His franchise, playff-record four passing touchdowns in Sunday's win over Dallas is all the proof that you need.

*Peterson plummets. I am not prepared to take his elite status away, but something is not right with Adrian Peterson. While it is easy to see that with Brett Favre slinging TD passes all over the field Peterson's scoring totals are down, I still can't justify 2.2 yards per carry average (20 carries for 63 yards). He has now eclipsed 100 rushing yards just once in his last 11 games, including eight straight without hitting the century mark.

*Pressure kills. The Vikings were able to shut down the redhot Tony Romo and Dallas Cowboys' offense by getting to the quarterback. Romo was flushed out of the pocket all day long as the Vikings came up with six huge sacks while forcing Romo into three fumbles (two lost) and two interceptions.

*Running it up? Cowboys' fans everywhere today are joining linebacker Keith Brooking in having an issue with the way Minnesota kept piling it on. It did seem odd and a bit stupid to me at that time with the game in hand why they would even keep Brett Favre in the game, but nonetheless if Dallas had a beef with it stop them. I see slowing it down in high school sports, but these are pros.


JETS-CHARGERS
*Surprise.
I very much figured that the Jets could keep it close, but the Chargers' high-powered attack was shut down. San Diego became too one-dimensional in the second half, but didn't have a choice as they mustered just 61 rushing yards against New York's top-ranked defense.

*Green-er Pastures. The rookie is breaking out at the right time. He had his second-straight 100-yard game rushing for 128 yards on 23 carries, including a 53-yard touchdown run. It was the longest in Jets' playoff history. He's the real the deal!

*Just for kicks. Nate Kaeding missed three field goals. I will discredit the 57-yarder at the half, but the 40 and 36-yard field goals that were shanked cost the Chargers the game and their season. Throw in Shayne Graham's two misses a week earlier and the Jets have paralyed five missed field goals into a trip to the AFC Championship game.

*What were you thinking? I am still trying to figure out what in the world Norv Turner was thinking with the onside kick. It made little sense to me. Had the Chargers kicked it deep, the Jets may have been less likely to go for it on fourth down. Plus, with Darren Sproles returning the potential punt you never know what could've happened.

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NFL Playoffs: Quick Picks

15. January 2010  - Published by Dan Clasgens

I broke down the Saints-Cardinals game already earlier this week. Here are the rest of my picks:

COLTS 23, RAVENS 17
I am not betting against Peyton Manning in this contest, though I do expect the Ravens to keep it close for most of the game. The Colts rarely make the turnovers and mistakes that Baltimore so often uses to their advantage. Playing at home will help off balance the three plus weeks of rust Indy has.

VIKINGS 23, COWBOYS 20
America's Team is as hot as any standing right now having won three straight games. They have done it by running the football and playing top level defense. Minnesota may have peaked a bit too early, but they still possess home field advantage, one of the greatest running backs in the league and oh yeah the Hall of Famer at quarterback. The Cowboys scare me as you just never know what your are going to get. I'll take my chances with the home team.

CHARGERS 27, JETS 16
The Chargers have won 13 straight games and will have more than enough offensively to put the pressure on the one-dimensional Jets. Don't expect Rex Ryan not to have something up his sleeve as I wouldn't be surprise to see the Jets keep it interesting for a half or so, but in the end San Diego will simply have to much.

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Breakdown: Cardinals at Saints

13. January 2010  - Published by Dan Clasgens

The Arizona Cardinals a fresh off one of the most thrilling playoff games in NFL history, a 51-45 overtime shootout win over the Green Bay Packers.

Now they hit the road as they head to the Bayou to battle the New Orleans Saints, who enjoyed a bye last week and wrapping up the NFC’s top seed with a 13-3 record. The game will kick off on Saturday at 4:30 p.m. Eastern on FOX.

After starting the year with 13 straight wins, the Saints have dropped three straight games. Can they shake off the rest and turn the switch back on?

FOR CARDINALS TO WIN: If Arizona is going to advance, they’ll need to somehow slow down the Saints’ high-flying attack. As they showed last week versus the Packers they are very susceptible to giving up big plays. Their best route to holding down Drew Brees and company could be by focusing a bit more on running the football. Rookie Beanie Wells came on strong down the stretch and New Orleans is 21st in the league against the run, averaging 122 rushing yards allowed per game.  Dallas gave everyone a blueprint on how to beat the Saints, put pressure on Brees.  For Arizona to prevail top pass rushers Darnell Dockett and Bertrand Berry will need to step up.

FOR SAINTS TO WIN:  The road to victory for New Orleans requires them getting out of the gate fast. After a fast start to the season, the Saints struggled down the stretch with putting four quarters together. Coming off three losses and weeks of rest, the offense needs to get out of the gate quickly. By doing so they will not only put pressure on Arizona and turn them into a one-dimensional team, they will also allow the crowd to become a factor.  Taking advantage of 5-foot-8 corner Michael Adams (ala Green Bay’s game plan) b y matching him up with tall wideouts Marques Colston (6-4) and Robert Meachem (6-3) should translate into success.  Defensively the Saints need to rattle Kurt Warner. He is known to turn over the ball, but wasn’t pressured much last week by Green Bay as he completed 29 of his 33 passes.

KEY INJURIES:  Cardinals – WR Anquan Boldin (questionable, knee/ankle), LB Gerald Hayes (questionable, ankle); Saints – DE Charles Grant (knee, out), Pierre Thomas (ribs, probable), Lance Moore (ankle, probable), TE Jeremy Shockey (toe, probable), DL Sedrick Ellis (knee, probable).

WEATHER:  Dome

INSIDE THE NUMBERS:  Homefield advantage? The Saints are 12-4 over the past two years at the Louisiana Superdome and there’s no doubting that few stadiums can get louder for opponents. However, let’s not forget only the Saints, Colts, and Chargers one more than six games Arizona did on the road this year. Plus the Cardinals did win 33-13 over Carolina in this round of the playoffs last year on their way to the Super Bowl.

WHAT VEGAS SAYS: The Saints are favored by 7 points with a total of 57 in most sportsbooks. The early action appears to be leaning the Cardinals way though with about 64 percent of the current action on the spread is leaning towards Arizona with the over garnering 85 percent of the money. If you like the Cards you will want to take a look at the (+250) money line which yields $25 back for every $10 wagered.

FINAL TAKE: The Saints simply have too many weapons for the Cardinals to be able to slow them down too much. Warner needed a near perfect game to hold off the Packers in the opening round, but not even that will likely be enough for New Orleans who have been gearing up for this game for a few weeks.  It will be close early, but the Saints will pull away late and move on the next week’s conference championship.

MY PICK:  SAINTS 37, CARDINALS 27

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NFL Playoffs: Divisional Round

11. January 2010  - Published by GetSports Desk

Here’s the schedule for this weekend’s playoff games…

SATURDAY
Arizona (11-6) at New Orleans (13-3) – 4:30 p.m. – FOX

Baltimore (10-7) at Indianapolis (14-2) – 8:15 p.m. – CBS

SUNDAY
Dallas (12-5) at Minnesota (12-4) – 1:00 p.m. – FOX

NY Jets (10-7) at San Diego (13-3) – 4:40 p.m. – CBS

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Bengals Bow Out Disgracefully

10. January 2010  - Published by Dan Clasgens

The Cincinnati Bengals’ playoff aspirations quickly came to an end as they defeated handedly by the New York Jets, 24-14, on Saturday at Paul Brown Stadium.

THE GOOD
Cedric Benson
– Benson was the only reliable source of offense most of the season for the Bengals, and Saturday was no different. He set the franchise’s single-game playoff record with 169 yards on the ground, including a 47-yard TD run. It marked his 10th 100-yard game of the season, but it was the first time he’s hit the century club and the team loss.

Demato Peko – It was nice to have Peko back. He IS the heart-and-soul of the defense. For most of the game he was leading the charge up front and very active for the Bengals’ defense. The final stat line (1 tackle, three assists) doesn’t show much in regards to what his presence actually meant.

The Fans – The Bengals soldout their 53rd straight home game and the 60,000-plus fans that braved the near zero degree wind chill to root on their team definitely deserve some props. At times in the game they did make a difference too. However, the team’s lousy play down the stretch took them out of the game.

THE BAD
Carson Palmer
– The former Pro Bowl quarterback continued his struggles. Jets’ coach Rex Ryan knew how to rattle him from his days as Baltimore’s defense coordinator, but even when there was little to no pressure Palmer looked terrible. For the Bengals’ sake, let’s hope Palmer is more injured than we realized. Otherwise it may be time for the team to start considering new options at quarterback. The veteran was outplayed by rookie quarterback Mark Sanchez and has been terrible down the team’s dismal stretch run.

Bob Bratkowski – I am getting tired of beating a dead horse. Still, Bratkowski once again shows up here. The team’s play calling is not up to speed with the rest of the NFL elite and the team is risking a serious fan revolt if Brat is back for another season. It’s time for a fresh start.

Challenges – Who is responsible for the Bengals decision to challenge the two plays in the first quarter? Even from my seat way up in the 300’s of Paul Brown Stadium I could see that Laveranues Coles fumbled that ball. Had the team actually stayed in the game for four quarters, the challenges (or lack of challenges remaining) would have likely come back to haunt them.

Jonathan Joseph and Leon Hall – Joseph and Hall were terrible. They both can officially stop complaining about their Pro Bowl snubs. They were beaten all day long by Sanchez, who completed 12-of-15 passes. Granted the Bengals were stacking the box, but that is because Mike Zimmer thought his highly-touted corners could actually win 1-on-1 battles with Jerricho Cotchery and Braylon Edwards. They proved they could not.

Season’s stretch run – It was nice to see the Bengals get out to a fast start and going 6-0 in the division. Honestly, I wasn’t expecting that much when the season began. However, how terribly disappointing to see how they responded once in the driver’s seat. They dropped four of their last five games to finish the season and finished just 4-7 against teams outside of it. In their final 9 games (4-5) they only beat one team with a winning record.

THE UGLY
Shayne Graham
– Has there ever a player that was tagged as a franchise player that was out of the league the following season? That’s what Shayne Graham is facing. He blew the game for the Bengals by shanking two second-half field goals from 35 and 28 yards out. In his limited “big game” opportunities in Cincy, Graham has consistently failed to deliver.  He can barely get his kickoffs to the end zone and can even be brought on to attempt a kick over 48 yards. Adios Shayne, your career as a Bengal is over and there may not be another team willing to give you a chance.

QUOTE TO NOTE
“There isn’t anything you can say about that. When you miss the field goal, you miss the field goal. It is a shame, and it killed us. Unfortunately, in this case, it is mostly a one-man operation, and that is the sad part of it. Shayne feels worse about it than anybody. Those points obviously make a big difference.” – head coach Marvin Lewis on Graham’s missed field goals

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