NL Central: Deadline Grades

31. July 2012  - Published by Dan Clasgens

The race is on in the NL Central with the Cincinnati Reds, Pittsburgh Pirates and St. Louis Cardinals vying for the divisional title. All three teams were active leading up to the MLB non-waiver trading deadline. Here’s how I rate each team’s moves:

CINCINNATI REDS
Acquired RP Jonathan Broxton for pitchers Donnie Joseph and J.C. Sulbaran.

--With one of baseball’s best records, the Reds were content with what got them there. The addition of the hard-throwing right hander will strengthen one of MLB’s best bullpens. The return of Joey Votto momentarily will provide a nice lift to the lineup. Don’t rule out more additions before the waiver deadline either…FINAL GRADE: B+

PITTSBURGH PIRATES
Acquired Wandy Rodriguez from Houston for three prospects; Got Travis Snider in trade for Brad Lincoln; Gaby Sanchez and  Kyle Kaminska were picked up for Gorkys Hernandez and the team’s 2013 Competitive Balance Pick;  Casey McGehee was then sent to the Yankees for struggling reliever Chad Qualls.

--It may have lacked splash, but the Pirates’ moved from position of strengths to fill many holes and improved their team overall. They didn’t steal the headlines, but Pittsburgh didn’t mortgage their system either. It remains to be seen if the moves are enough to shift the balance of power in the division, but the improvement is there for this season and beyond…FINAL GRADE: A-

ST. LOUIS CARDINALS

Acquired middle reliever Edward Mujica from the Miami Marlins for prospect IF Zack Cox.

--Mujica will no doubt help the Cardinals’ bullpen, but it won’t help them where they need it most – the rotation. St. Louis is still going to be a factor, yet the deadline deals did little to help their chances…FINAL GRADE: C

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Are the Pirates For Real?

6. July 2012  - Published by Dan Clasgens

For the first time since 1992 Pittsburgh is sitting 10 games above .500 and they enter the final series of baseball’s first half two games atop the NL Central.

On the 20th anniversary of the franchise’s last winning season, the Pirates have established themselves as a contender.

The same thing happened a year ago as the Bucs were tied for first place with a 53-47 mark. After a devastating 19-inning loss to the Braves the team went into a terrible skid posting a 19-43 mark the rest of the way.

There are plenty of reasons to suggest that this year will be different.

The offense is heating up with the summer led by outfielder Andrew McCutchen (.356 BA, 16 HR, 48 RBI) and the recent surge of third basemen Pedro Alvarez, who has hit 15 HR of his own. The team ranks 13th in the National League in both hitting and runs scored. However, over their last nine games the team has put 68 runs on the scoreboard. It’s no surprise they went 8-1 during the stretch.

James McDonald has emerged with ace-type stuff and veterans AJ Burnett and Erik Bedard have provided some good innings. Closer Joel Hanrahan has been a solid as anybody in the league, sporting a 2.45 ERA and 22 saves.

The team has managed to stay relatively healthy and could very easily make a move at the deadline to add a bat or upgrade things on the backend of the rotation. The experience of last year’s collapse is helping keep this young team focused and playing with confidence.

Expect the NL Central to remain a three-horse race much of the way with both the Reds and Cardinals battling for the spot as well. 

Let’s take a look at the way the division shapes up heading into the break and what lies ahead for each team:

1. PITTSBURGH (46-36)
at Mil – 3
at Col – 3
MIA – 3
CHC – 3
at Hou – 4
at ChC – 3

2. CINCINNATI (44-28, 2 GB)
STL – 3
ARZ – 4
MIL – 3
at Hou – 3
at Col – 3
SD – 4

3. ST. LOUIS (44-39, 2.5 GB)
at Cin – 3
at Mil – 3
CHC – 3
LAD – 4
@ChC – 3
@Col – 3

*The Cardinals have the toughest slate over the next month without the benefit of playing the Astros, but they do get the Cubs six times. All three teams make a trip to Colorado during the stretch. The Pirates don’t have a game on tap with a team with a winning record in the month ahead and the only team the Reds face on the plus side of .500 is a three-game set with the Cardinals at home.

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Snapshot: St. Louis Cardinals

20. February 2012  - Published by Dan Clasgens

2011 Rewind: The Cardinals rallied from a 10.5 game deficit in the NL Wildcard race on August 24. However after finishing with a 23-9 record down the stretch St. Louis was able to overcome a struggling Braves team that went 9-18 in September to squeak into the playoffs. Once there, the Cardinals made the most of their post-season opportunity by winning series against the Phillies, Brewers and Rangers to lay claim to a World Championship.

The Good:  St. Louis got sensational production of Jaime Garica, Kyle Lohse, and Kyle McClellan in the middle of the rotation. The trio combined to win 39 games and were three of the team’s six starting to pitchers to post double-digit win totals.  One of the better acquisitions of last offseason proved to be the Cardinals free agent signing of Lance Berkman. During his first season in St. Louis Berkman batted with .301 with 31 HR and 94 RBI as he provided the team great production in the middle of the order. Catcher Yadier Molina hit a career-best .305 while posting career highs in HR (14), RBI (65), and runs (55) while being an invaluable leader for the team’s young pitching staff.

The Bad: Injuries hampered the Cardinals all season and none was bigger than the loss of Adam Wainwright, who was a 20-game winner in 2010, to Tommy John surgery for the entire season.  Third basemen David Freese (97 GP) and Matt Holliday (124 GP) also lost significant time to the injury bug. Early in the season the bullpen was atrocious, eventually causing the team to cut ties with closer Ryan Franklin. Eventually Jason Motte and Fernando Salas solidified the position, but the duo did combine to blow 10 saves.

Biggest Loss: No loss will be harder felt than Albert Pujols departure from St. Louis via free agency.  While a slow start and an injury of his own produced one of his worst offensive seasons, the impact of his loss from the middle of the order is significant. The retirement of manager Tony LaRussa along with the absence of pitching coach Dave Duncan is also going to have an impact, especially with the team’s rotation.

Best Addition: To help make up for the loss of Pujols in the order the team signed free agent Carlos Beltran. He will move into right field in St. Louis with Berkman sliding into first base.  Beltran showed late in 2011 that he was finally getting back to 100 percent following a major knee surgery a year earlier. He’s slated to hit ahead of Holliday and Berkman in the Cardinals’ order at the No. 2 spot. That should lead to him getting so good pitches to hit and solid numbers. A .270-20-65 batting line is a fair projection.

Fantasy Slant: Veterans Chris Carpenter and Rafael Furcal could both provide some great mid-round value. Carpenter’s regular-season performance was mediocre, but he was up to his old tricks during his post-season dominance.  His 273-inning workload a year ago is a concern, but for the money he’s a solid fantasy option. Injuries have hampered Furcal over the years and he’s one the tail-end of his career. Still, hitting atop of a lineup with the potency the Cardinals’ possess makes him an intriguing low-end starting option at shortstop.

Final Take: Don’t write off the Cardinals just yet. The off-season departures are well noted, but the rotation is still rock solid and the lineup is still in the upper echelon within the National League. The Reds have improved, but the Brewers have suffered their fair share of losses this off-season too. Expect St. Louis to approach the 85-to-90 win range be a contender in the NL Central.  The addition of a second Wild Card spot would only enhance the team’s post-season outlook...2012 PREDICTION: 87-75 (2nd place NL Central; NL Wild Card team)

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Brewers Add Ramirez

12. December 2011  - Published by Dan Clasgens

With the Brewers likely to lose Prince Fielder to free agency and Ryan Braun facing a 50-game suspension, the team moved to add some help to the middle of the lineup by signing free-agent third basemen Aramis Ramirez.

The 33-year old right-handed power hitter enjoyed a nice bounce-back campaign in 2010 with the Cubs as he hit 306/.361/.510 with 26 home runs in 626 plate appearances.

Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports expects the contract to be in the $34-37MM range for three years. 

Ramirez is a Type B free agent, which means the Cubs receive a draft pick between the first and second rounds of the 2012 draft.

They receive the draft pick because they offered to go to arbitration with Ramirez, who declined.

Ramirez also declined a $16 million mutual option for the 2012 season. By offering to pick up the option, the Cubs saved themselves a $2 million buyout.

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Brutal Stretch Ends For Reds

2. June 2011  - Published by Dan Clasgens

After playing 20 games in 20 days, the Cincinnati Reds finally get an off day on Thursday. It has been a grinding stretch for the team as they battled injuries, fatigue and untimely hitting. Overall, they went 9-11 in the stretch and dropped from first to third place in the N.L. Central.

Here are some interesting stats/trends from span (from Lance McAlister)

--The run of games began with the team going 5-0 sweeping St. Louis and Chicago
--Next they were swept by the Pirates (first time since 2003)
--A sweep by the Indians started a 2-8 road trip
--Streak included season-worst six-game losing streak
--Three extra inning games, including 19 innings vs. PHI (14 total extra innings)
--Went 1-5 in six 1-run games
--Used 19 pitchers in 20 days
--Shortstops had a 3-for-68 stretch
--They haven't had a homer from 3B since April 7

FINAL TAKE: Reds’ fans shouldn’t be without concerns, but taking two out of three from the second-place Brewers was a positive end to an otherwise terrible 10 days of baseball. Luckily for the Reds a baseball season is long grind full of hurdles, streaks, and slumps. The team needs to get its rotation healthy and at 100 percent and must get more consistent offensively. Still, there is still plenty of reason for optimism and no doubt that the Redlegs are going to stay in the division race well into the summer and beyond.

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Reds Rollercoaster Season Continues

22. May 2011  - Published by Dan Clasgens

What a difference a week makes. One week ago the Cincinnati Reds were fresh off a three-game sweep over their division rivals, the St. Louis Cardinals, and winners of five straight games and a 1.5 game lead in the N.L. Central.

Now just seven days later the team saw its losing streak extended to five games as they were swept by the Cleveland Indians. During the span the team endured a four-game swing in the standings and now find themselves back in second place, 1.5 games behind the Cardinals.

To make matters worse, the three-game set in Cleveland with just the beginning of a 10-game road trip with stops in Philadelphia and Atlanta before the team returns to the friendly confines of Great American Ballpark.

Consistency, or the lack of it, has been the team’s Achilles’ heel all season long. After starting the year out 5-0, the Reds went 9-15 over the next 24 games. The team bounced out of that funk as they won 11 of their next 13 games before their current five-game skid.

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Reds: Where's The Offense?

2. May 2011  - Published by Dan Clasgens

from Lance McAlister, 700WLW.com...

In 2011 the Reds have scored fewer than 3 runs 8 times in their first 29 games.The Reds are 0-8 when scoring less than 3 runs.

Score-opponent-date
3-2 Houston, April 7
13-2 Arizona, April 8
3-2 San Diego, April 13
6-1 Pittsburgh, April 15
3-1 Arizona, April 20
4-2 St Louis, April 22
3-0 St Louis, April 24
3-2 Milwaukee, April 26

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Reds: Wire to Wire, Part II?

3. April 2011  - Published by Dan Clasgens

After watching the Reds complete the sweep of the Brewers and seeing the Cardinals get out to a slow start it’s hard not to start thinking Wire to Wire.

Of course, the 1990 Cincinnati Reds were the first team to accomplish that feat over a 162-game schedule so we all know it has been done before.

I’m not sold on the Brewers as being a true contender.  Despite their poor start and a mounting list of injuries, the Cardinals will remain the top contention for the Reds inside the division until proven otherwise.

Here were five things that stuck out from the team’s opening weekend to me...

DEFENSE - The Reds had it and the Brewers didn’t. The box scores will only show that Milwaukee made two errors to the Reds’ one miscue, but while Cincinnati’s infield fields the ball as smooth as silk the Brewers struggled mightily. How many runs did Casey McGehee cost his team in this series? Scott Rolen may have more than a decade on him, but his glove is far superior.

CATCHER PLAY – Not even the great Johnny Bench ever produced a three-game series stat line that the Reds’ backstops delivered in the opening weekend. Ryan Hannigan followed up Ramon Hernandez 4-for-5, walkoff homerun performance in the first game by 5-for-7 with a pair of homeruns (both on Sunday) and 4 RBI over the next two.

STUBBS PRIMED – Early on Drew Stubbs is living up to some of his off-season hype.  The centerfielder kicked off his sophomore campaign by finishing the weekend with a .455 average, 1 HR, 3 RBI, and 1.538 OPS. He has struck out once in each game, but has drawn a pair of walks. If he can produce like that at the top of the order there’s no telling how many runs this team is capable of scoring.

WOOD IS THE ACE – Edinson Volquez may have gotten the Opening Day start and Bronson Arroyo the big new contract, but rest assured Travis Wood is the ace of this staff. His performance Saturday night was nothing short of brilliant as he went seven innings while allowing just one run on four hits while striking out seven and not walking a batter. He retired the first 11 batters and used just 83 pitches (66 strikes) to get thru seven.

CRAZY CORDERO
– After blowing eight saves a year ago and finishing the season shaky, veteran closer Francisco Cordero didn’t do much to evoke confidence. He picked up his first save of the year on Saturday night, ceding one run on two hits before finishing out the ninth inning. With Aroldis Chapman and his 105 MPH fastball waiting in the wings, Cordero will be on a short leash.

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Edmonds Rips Reds

3. April 2011  - Published by Dan Clasgens

From his interview with 590 KFNS "The Fan" in St Louis.

Here are some sound bites:

*On his lingering foot injury and not being able to go to spring training with St Louis:
"Awful, it's still awful. I still can't do so many things I want to do. It's really frustrating. I don't know the right words to use towards the Cincinnati doctors. I'm in a situation I thought I'd never be in. I can't walk and I chase my kids around. It's not healing. Surgery is the option right now. That would be a year rehab. I'm not looking forward to that. I still think I can play."

*On the trade from Milwaukee to Cincinnati:
"I think I left Milwaukee hitting .295 (but playing hurt) I was driving the ball more and really playing more. The worst thing I did was accept that trade for Walt (Jocketty)...I should have shut it down and went home...I'd be healthy right now and probably playing."

*On the Reds this year and last year:
"They are still pretty young. I kind of a had a feeling that playoff experience was going to play out the way it did. They didn't seem like they were ready last year. It's a different monster when you get in the playoffs. You need some veterans and guys that really step up.....and you need to be ready to play. You see they weren't.....They were really young and really naive. I hope for their sake that helps them a little bit."

*On the makeup of Reds:

"They have a bunch of good guys...other than that one situation (fight w/Cards) and that one player (Phillips). It's a really young, nice group of guys. It put a black eye on the rest of the rivalry. They are all pretty good. I kind of looked at it like my Cubs experience.I went in thinking God these guys are gonna be a pain....but they are all actually pretty good...except that one guy. There are a few guys that have chips on their shoulders. Overall, the 1B, their young CF, their young RF are great guys. Their LF Johnny Gomes I think is very misread. Obviously Scotty is over there and their catcher is pretty good. And they have some good backups. I don't know they are as talented as we would be in St Louis...but that's why they play 162 games."

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Snapshot: St. Louis Cardinals

23. March 2011  - Published by Dan Clasgens

2010 Rewind: The Cardinals finished the year with its fourth winning season in five years, but their 86 wins was only good enough for a second-place finish in the N.L. Central.  The team went in the tank at the end of the year blowing a first-place lead after going 3-20 against teams with a losing record after August 13. Tony LaRusa’s bunch finished 52-29 at home, but mustered just a 34-47 mark on the road.

The Good: Albert Pujols produced his typical stellar numbers in 2010 by batting .312 with 42 HR and 118 RBI.  Outfielder Matt Holliday also continued his steady bat by knocking in 103 runs and producing a .312 average. Colby Rasmus led all NL Central fielders with a .498 slugging percentage and is an emerging star. Right hander Chris Carpenter has gone 33–13 with a 2.78 ERA over the last two years.

The Bad: Brendan Ryan stint with the Cardinals was short after he managed to hit just .223 while committing 17 errors at shortstop. Kyle Lohse boasted a career-worst 6.55 ERA while going 4-8 in 18 starts before suffering an injury.  Catcher Yadier Molina was stellar behind the plate, but watched his batting average dip nearly 30 points down to .262.

Biggest Loss: After failing to reach an extension with Pujols, the Cardinals’ offseason got even worse when ace Adam Wainwright was shelved for the 2011 season due to Tommy John surgery. Wainwright was a 20-game winner a year ago and his void will not be able to be filled.

Best Addition: The Cardinals brought in former Astro Lance Berkman on the cheap and plan to use him in right field. Fed up with Ryan at shortstop the team brought in veteran Ryan Theriot to take up the middle. George Laird was added to help spell Molina and keep him fresh.

Fantasy Slant: Pujols is the No. 1 pick in any format. Holliday, Rasmus and Carpenter are can’t miss additions to any team. The sleeper picks could very well prove to be Berkman and third basemen David Freese, who was having a breakout rookie campaign before suffering a season-ending injury a year ago. Closer Ryan Franklin isn’t flashy, but he’s a good source of cheap saves.

Final Take: With the rest of the division improving, the Cardinals’ domination of the N.L. Central has come to an end. They’ll still compete, but without Wainwright the Cards are stacked against St. Louis. Don’t expect them to fare much better than last season’s win total…2011 Record: 85-77, second place NL Central.

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