Fantasy Rookies - First Take (WR/TE/IDP)

9. May 2009  - Published by Dan Clasgens

I continue to breakdown the Rookie Class of 2009 from a fantasy prospective...

IN CASE YOU MISSED IT: Fantasy Rookie Podcast | First Take (QB/RB)

WIDE RECEIVER
Michael Crabtree (SF) - When he slipped past the Raiders I was thinking he caught a break from a fantasy standpoint. However, landing in San Francisco without a quarterback and in an offense that under Mike Singletary and Jimmy Raye is likely to be a run-heavy, ball-control team didn't help his cause. The top talent hands down, but he slides down my list a bit.

Jeremy Maclin (PHI) - My favorite mix of talent and opportunity of any receiver in the draft. Maclin has the ability to makes plays and will be a nice fit opposite of last year's rookie wideout DeSean Jackson in Philly. Donovan McNabb will be chomping at the bit to get Maclin in his line-up and owners will be too soon enough.

Darrius Heyward-Bey (OAK) - I still am tyring to figure out what in the world Al Davis was smoking on draft day, but that is another blog post altogether. Heyward-Bey has explosiveness and the ability to make plays. His success will depend greatly on JeMarcus Russell and the QB situation in Oakland. I am going to stay clear of any Raiders' wideouts for now.

Hakeem Nicks (NYG) - With Plaxico Burress officially done as a Giant, Nicks will be asked to step into the mix right off the bat. He has the potential to be a solid a WR3 or WR4 for fantasy owners long-term, but I just don't see it happening very quickly, making him better as a long-term option.

Percy Harvin (MIN) - The former Gator is a high-risk, high-reward type of player. The Vikings' quarterback situation is a mess, but I still expect Harvin to enjoy some success right out of the gate. He is going to turn in some huge games and some duds too as consistency will be what holds his fantasy value down.

Juaquin Iglesias (CHI) - With Jay Cutler now in Chicago the team needs to build a solid stable of receivers. Iglesias is a nice start and will have a chance to earn playing time right off the bat. If he can work his way into the Bears' starting lineup early on he has the potential to be the biggest sleeper pick of the bunch.


TIGHT END
Brandon Pettigrew (DET) - Easily the most talented of the tight ends in the draft. If there was any questions surrounding him it would be the fact he plays for the Lions and has history of character issues. Still, he should produce good enough to be a fantasy factor right off the bat.

Chase Coffman (CIN) - He is the Division I record holder for career receptions by a tight end and will be a natural fit in the Bengals' passing attack sans T.J. Houshmandzadeh. Coffman will quickly become a favorite target of Carson Palmer, particularly in the red zone.

Richard Quinn (DEN) - Quinn fits more of the "blocking tight end" bill and finds himself in a cluttered depth chart in Denver. He could surprise early in fantasy football if he ensures a bigger role. His value is higher in keeper leagues though as he likely will go undrafted in most year-to-year formats.

Jared Cook (TEN) - The "tweener" is a nice fit for the Titans' scheme and should get playing time immediately. Tight ends have generally favored well in the Titans over the past decade plus. If he can unseat the aging veteran Alge Crumpler, Cook could produced quick dividends.


IDP ROOKIE RANKINGS
1. DT B.J. Raji (GB)
2. LB Aaron Curry (SEA)
3. LB James Laurinaitis (STL)
4. DE Brian Orakpo (WAS)
5. LB Brian Cushing (HOU)
6. S Patrick Chung (NE)
7. LB Clay Matthews (GB)
8. LB Ray Muauluga (CIN)
9. DE Aaron Maybin (BUF)
10. S Louis Delmas (DET)
11. DE Everett Brown (CAR)
12. LB Clint Sintim (NYG)

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Favre Coming Back?

29. April 2009  - Published by Dan Clasgens

from the Newark Star-Ledger:

Amid chatter that Brett Favre is contemplating coming out of retirement yet again, the Jets announced Tuesday evening that they have released the future Hall of Fame quarterback from the reserve/retirement list.

The move means that Favre is now free to sign with any team if he wishes, and the Jets wouldn't be owed any compensation because they no longer have his rights.

Favre's release from the Jets could pave the way for him to come back with the Vikings, the team he originally wanted to play for following his bitter divorce with Green Bay.

"Bus (Cook) and Mike (Tannenbaun) have been talking about this for a while," said Favre in a statement. "Nothing has changed. At this time, I am retired and have no intention of returning to football."

COMPLETE ARTICLE

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Week 17 Parting Shots

28. December 2008  - Published by Dan Clasgens

Just a few observations from the final Sunday of NFL regular season action:

  • DETROIT FIRST EVER TO GO 0-16 - The Lions did it! We finally have an 0-16 team. One year after we witnessed our first 16-0 team ever, we now have an 0-16 team as the Lions lost in Green Bay 31-21. The Lions haven't won since Dec. 23, 2007, actually, when they beat the Kansas City Chiefs. And Green Bay is where this woeful streak began at the end of last season. Since then, the Lions have lost 17 straight and been outscored 551-281.

  • PENNINGTON GETS LAST LAUGH - I am a big Brett Favre fan and I really do think that I saw him play his last game ever today. Still, I was rooting for Pennington to come back to the Meadowlands and claim the division title in front of the fans that were so happy to replace him with the future Hall of Famer to start the season. The bonus came with Miami's win also eliminating the Patriots from the playoffs for the first time since 2002. Tony Romo proves once again that he can't handle the pressure of a big game.

  • COWBOYS SUFFFER WORST LOSS IN FRANCHISE HISTORY - After both the Bucs and Bears blew their chances to put pressure on the Cowboys, the Eagles learned just before the kickoff of their game that a win over Dallas would give them the NFC's final playoff berth. The Eagles embarassed the Dallas Cowboys, who I've said all year long is the league's most overrated team. They proved it on Sunday as they lost 44-6 with their season on the line.

  • BLOWING IT DOWN THE STRETCH - If you look at the four teams that missed out on the playoffs on Sunday that at one point looked like a lock - the Cowboys, Bears, Bucs, and Jets - you see one consistent trend. Disappointing finishes. Over the last five weeks of the season the teams mentioned above went 6-14. Enough said. I don't think Lovie Smith or Jon Gruden are going anywhere, but it wouldn't surprise me to see the ax come down with any of these teams.

  • RESTING STARTERS NOT A BAD IDEA - I am not a big fan of how it robs me of a good week of fantasy football, but you can't argue with coaches that sit their players with the playofs in hand. Mike Tomlin is wishing he would have pulled the plug on Ben Roethlisberger before he got knocked out of the game with a concussion. The look on Tomlin's face when his franchise quarterback was on the turf for nearly ten minutes said it all. Big Ben suffered a concussion and should be alright in two weeks when the Steelers next play.

  • FALCONS, RAVENS RIDE THEIR ROOKIE QB'S - Nothing is more impressive than the 1-15 turnaroud Miami had to win the AFC East. Still, I couldn't end this blog post without mentioning how amazed I am that both Matt Ryan and Joe Flacco led the Falcons and Ravens to wildcard berths respectively. I didn't give either team much of a chance to compete this year, especially with rookie quarterbacks. I don't expect either team to go too deep into the playoffs, but I learned my lesson and won't take them for granted either. Both teams are very much capabale of beating their first round opponents next.

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Fantasy: Favre vs. Rodgers

29. September 2008  - Published by Dan Clasgens

It's hard to ignore, the Brett Favre vs. Aaron Rodgers talk outlasted the summer as many speculate which quarterback was the right choice for Green Bay. The talks intensified on Sunday as Brett Favre led the Jets to 56 points while throwing a career-best 6 TD's. Meanwhile, Rodgers struggled in Tampa Bay and suffered a seperated shoulder. Now aside from the stats and wins, Rodgers must deal with playing hurt. Favre always played hurt, evident by his 252 consecutive games started record. 

Regardless of what the Packers' grade in the move turns out to be, its a bit easier to declare a fantasy winner. Rodgers has over exceeded my expectations early on this season, but we are slowly seeing him fall back to where I anticipated. Even if he plays through the injury it will be tough for him to get back to 100% anytime soon.

Meanwhile, Favre is just getting heated up. He missed nearly all the preseason and little time to learn the offense and get accustomed with his wideouts. You started to see chemistry develop between Jerricho Cotchery and Favre right off the bat, but it has been over the past two weeks  that the Favre-to-Laveranues Coles' connection is starting to heat up. Coles had 6 catches for 75 yards and a TD last Monday night in San Diego and busted out 8 catches for 105 yards and three scores in Sunday's shootout vs. Arizona.

I indicated early on that Favre was my choice from a fantasy prospective and that sentiment has only been strengthened in the season's opening month. Both can prove to be valuable, but Favre is going to be worth starting on a much more consistent basis. Let's take a look at the numbers so far.

FAVRE (2-2)
Completions - 87/124 (70.2%)
Passing Yards - 935
Passing TD's - 12
Interceptions - 4
QB Rating - 110.8 (1st in NFL)

RODGERS (2-2)
Completions - 78/126 (61.9%)
Passing Yards - 961
Passing TD's - 6
Interceptions - 3
QB Rating - 91.4 (11th) 

 







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Line-Up Locks: Week 3

19. September 2008  - Published by Dan Clasgens

Back by popular demand, here is our Week 3 edition of Line-Up Locks. Some players are lineup locks every week (i.e. Terrell Owens, Adrian Peterson, Antonio Gates), but there most players require you to make some decisions on who to LOCK IN and LOCK OUT of the line-up. Here's a quick take on this week's options:

QUARTERBACKS
Lock In:
--Eli Manning vs. Cin
--Kurt Warner @Was
--J.T. O'Sullivan vs. Det

Lock Out:
--Carson Palmer @NyG
--David Garrard @Ind
--Marc Bulger @Sea


RUNNING BACKS
Lock In:

--Michael Turner vs. KC
--Sammy Morris vs. Mia
--Maurice Jones-Drew @Ind

Lock Out:
--Willis McGahee vs. Cle
--Edgerrin James @Was
--Chris Perry @NyG


WIDE RECEIVERS
Lock In:

--Steve Smith @Min
--Wes Welker vs. Mia
--Bryant Johnson vs. Det

Lock Out:
--Marvin Harrison vs. Jck
--Laveranues Coles @SD
--Chad Johnson @NyG


TIGHT ENDS

Lock In:
--Dallas Clark vs. Jck
--Chris Cooley vs. Ari
--John Carlson vs. StL

Lock Out:

--Alge Crumpler vs. Hou
--Kevin Boss vs. Cin
--Vernon Davis @Det


TEAM DEFENSE/ST
Lock In:

--Giants vs. Cin
--Bucs @Chi
--Titans vs. Hou

Lock Out:

--Jaguars @Ind
--Steelers @Phi
--Packers vs. Dal 

 
MORE FANTASY HELP:
--GSI.com Week 3 Cheat Sheet
--Weekly Average Cheat Sheet (10+ websites)
--GetSportsRadio.com: Fantasy Playbook Podcast
--Fantasy Points Allowed By Position (AskTheCommish.com)
--Fantasy Football Player Trade Analyzer (KFFL.com)
--NFL Player Targets And Utilization Report (KFFL.com)
--Latest Injury and Player News (Rotoworld.com)
--Will Carroll's Injury Analysis (SI.com)
--Weekly Projections (FoxSports.com)

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Bengals Coach is Full of It

12. August 2008  - Published by Ben Bolton

From everything that I've heard so far during the morning after the Bengals first pre-season game and win at Lambeau field, everyone seems to be pretty optimistic about how the Bengals performed.   

During the post-game press conference, head coach Marvin Lewis stated:  "Our tackling really left something to be desired."  Are you kidding me?  The tackling was miserable.  I'm so sick of Lewis and his constant coach-speak.  Wouldn't it have sent more of a message to say something to the effect of:  "If we continue to make the same mistakes over and over again, we will not be competitive in the division."  Show the team that you have a pair and show the fans that you actually care about your job.

The Packers' first TD drive was one of the most embarrassing things I've ever seen on an NFL football field (for the Bengals).  When are these coaches going to teach their players to "wrap up" when tackling instead of becoming human torpedoes and bouncing off or missing intended ball-carriers?  It's the same thing year in and year out.

If Mike Zimmer can change this defense into just an average one, which I'm not yet convinced he can, the offense wouldn't have to be super-human all the time to win games.  If this defense doesn't get its act together within the next few weeks, they won't sniff .500.

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Favre: Winners & Losers

8. August 2008  - Published by Dan Clasgens

The Brett Favre saga appears to be over. The future Hall of Famer has landed with the Jets and as the dust settles let's take a look at the winners and losers.

WINNERS

Brett Favre - He gets  a starting job again. This guy led his team to hosting the NFC Championship last season and his team didn't want him back. I'm sorry, but if Favre wants to play he should be given the chance. 

Jets - This team went from 7-9 in my book to 11-5. They had one of the NFL's best off-seasons before this move, but still were going into the season with Chad Pennington and Kellen Clemens at QB. The days of stacking the box against the Jets are over.

Laveranues Coles and Jerricho Cotchery - The duo is one of the top five in the NFL in talent, but had problems with getting the ball delivered to them. I expect both wideouts to see a spike in production with Favre's arrival.

NFL - With the season weeks away there is plenty to get excited about, but all fans have been hearing about is Brett freaking Favre. Now, attention can be put back into all of the exciting news around the league. In addition, the league keeps one of its most marketable names and now has him playing in the nation's largest market. 

Tavaris Jackson - The youngster improved down the stretch this year and is playing in the perfect situation - great line, awesome running game, top-ranked defense. With Favre not coming to town Jackson's development will not be derailed. He is a player on the rise.


LOSERS

Aaron Rodgers - This could get ugly. Has there ever been a quarterback to take over the reigns of his offense under more pressure? On top of that his rookie contract is up and this is pretty much his one chance to get paid. He's handled it great so far, but the season hasn't even started yet.

Packers - They were in a tough spot and I'm can't even say that I disagree with their decision. Still, the way that it was handled from top to bottom was embarassing. It was Bud-Selig like. I am starting to wonder if has something to do with that Wisconsin cheese.

Ted Thompson - The guy didn't want to sign his name on the trade. It felt dirty didn't it Teddy. Let's face it, if the Packers' bomb this year Thompson could go to Bartman-level hatered in Green Bay. At least he wasn't stupid enough to trade Favre to the Vikings, who by the way are MY PICK to win the NFC North.

Chad Pennington - One day your the starter, the next day you are cut. I don't blame the Jets, but it's just funny how things work. For Pennington, he may never get a chance to start in this league again. He makes for a decent backup though and will land somewhere quickly.

Jeff Garcia - Alright people are just now starting to believe that he is not gay, and that only came after he married a smoking-hot wife, Carmella DeCesare. Now the guy is in tears and getting himself all worked up in front of the media. The Bucs made it clear they wanted Favre and didn't get him. Now, they must soothe the over-sensitive Garcia and move forward.

ESPN - What in the world is the world wide leader in sports going to talk about now? Let's try the other 31 teams, pennant races, or the Olympics. As usual ESPN totally took something and blew it up 24/7. Hopefully, everybody can get back to playing football now.

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Favre Wearing Different Shade Of Green

7. August 2008  - Published by Jimmy Dinsmore

The Packers traded Brett Favre to the New York Jets, ending his storied career with the Packers. All things considered, this is as good of a resolution as the Packers could've hoped for. He's not in their division, he's not even in the NFC. In fact, the Packers don't play the Jets for two years, so they'll likely never have to see or face Brett Favre on an opposing team.

By acquiring Favre, terms of the deal aren't known yet but are thought to be one single draft pick that will be determined by how well the Jets do, New York will cut Chad Pennington and move Kellen Clemens to backup. This is an immediately better team with Favre on it. The Jets had made some moves in the offseason to improve themselves and this might make them a Wild Card team, when before they weren't.

From a fantasy perspective this really improves Laveranues Coles and Jerricho Cotchery (especially Cotchery). Cotchery could be Favre's Greg Jennings this time around and Coles could be his Donald Driver. This also has to improve Thomas Jones' value because now the passing game is relevant.

For anyone decrying what a jerk Favre was for coming out of retirement and doing this to the Packers, I'd say calm down. Things are fine in Wisconsin. Green Bay can still be a playoff-caliber team without Favre. I thought and hoped Favre would stay retired, but part of me is glad to be able  to see one of the most exciting QBs of my generation back under center. And this resolution at least doesn't really tarnish Favre's legacy in the  least. It was like Joe Montana going to the Chiefs. One last swan song, but his days on the Frozen Tundra will always be what he's remembered for.

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Favre: Packer now, Viking later?

4. August 2008  - Published by Dan Clasgens

from the Minneapolis Star-Tribune:

Even as Favre flew into Green Bay on Sunday, conflicting reports appeared about Favre's status, ranging from his competing for the Packers starting quarterback job to him being offered to the Vikings in a trade.

The Milwaukee Journal Sentinal reported earlier Sunday that Favre would be reinstated to the active roster today and that the Packers planned to hold an open quarterback competition involving Favre and Aaron Rodgers.

But the Journal Sentinel reported later Sunday that the Packers called the Vikings on Friday to inform them that Favre was available in a trade.

"Although we built this year around the assumption that Brett meant what he said about retiring, Brett is coming back," Packers president Mark Murphy said in statement. "We will welcome him back and turn this situation to our advantage." 

NFL commissioner Roger Goddell reinstated Brett Favre on Sunday, forcing the Packers to put him on the active roster. He will be at Packers' camp on Monday where he is expected to undergo a physical and could be practicing with the team as early as Tuesday.

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Fantasy Fallout: Zone Blocking

29. July 2008  - Published by Jimmy Dinsmore

The Denver Broncos perfected the art of "zone blocking" and obviously are known for their smaller, but athletic offensive line (that has in the past cheated with chop blocks, etc.). However, those type of cut blocks and zone schemes are part of the zone blocking on the offensive line.

More and more teams are moving to this method, out of necessity (having smaller o-linemen) or because of the success it can bring. So, when drafting your fantasy team, look beyond your magazines and look beyond basic numbers and pay attention to teams that are switching schemes, either offense or defense. Zone blocking has turned unknowns into Pro Bowlers and can lead your fantasy team if you select one of these beneficiaries of zone blocking. Runners who run directionally, with a quick burst can thrive in a zone blocking scheme.

In this case, let's talk about the fantasy implications of some zone blocking schemes.

Denver Broncos - This is where it all started and where Mike Shanahan perfected it. And from Terrell Davis to Mike Anderson there have been many benefactors along the way. The most recent benefactor is Selvin Young, a waiver wire stud from last year. This year you can count on Young to take full advantage of the full-time job and put him down for 1,000 easily and at least 7 TDs.

Oakland Raiders - Never ones to let their rivals one up them, the Raiders employed zone blocking last year and led the NFL in rushing attempts. Compile that figure with the drafting of Darren McFadden, and Jamarcus Russell still being very inexperienced and expect a heavy amount of running from the men in black. Expect McFadden to get a little over a half of the carries while Justin Fargas will get the remaining. As such, both are just average fantasy RBs, but have a leg up on other RBs at the same tier level as them as they'll be in a nice running scheme that suits their styles.

Houston Texans - The Texans were so disatisfied with their running last year that they brought in zone blocking expert Alex Gibbs to coach the o-line and of course Gary Kubiak (former Bronco) is the head coach. So, the Texans are switching their blocking, big deal, right? Well that's good news for Chris Brown, who is supposed to be the backup to the washed up Ahman Green. Brown could be a nice sleeper pick. Also, in deep leagues, especially keeper leagues, keep an eye on Steve Slaton. At West Virginia they ran zone blocking for the spread offense and Slaton is the right type of back to prosper in such a system.

Green Bay Packers - Their switch last year to zone blocking netted them a trip to the NFC championship and led to a rising star in Ryan Grant. Grant is perfectly suited for this system and that's why I say don't hesitate to take Grant in Round 1.

Detroit Lions - Mike Martz is gone (thank God), so in comes a new system. The entire Lions offense will benefit from this zone blocking, not just the running game. Jon Kitna won't be chucking the ball all the time, Roy Williams and Calvin Johnson will be more open by an improved running game. Speaking of running, the Lions moved up in the draft to take rookie Kevin Smith for one reason - he ran in a zone blocking system in college at Central Florida. For this reason, of all the rookie RBs, I like Kevin Smith the most. 1,000 yards isn't out of the realm of possibility in this system. Watch how closely the Lions o-linemen are picking the scheme up in training camp

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