VOTE: Disappointing QB's

1. October 2012  - Published by Dan Clasgens

Through the season's first four weeks which of these fantasy passers have disappointed owners the most?

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Monday QB: Week 3

24. September 2012  - Published by Dan Clasgens

Every week I’ll address some topics that have my head spinning after Sunday’s action:

Jamaal Charles

I was very surprised to field as many questions I did about using the Chiefs’ RB in a fantastic matchup like playing the Saints. I could see the dilemma for owners that were stacked with a pair of top 10 running backs, but others were too quick to give up on him. He erased all doubts by carrying the ball 33 times for 233 yards and a touchdown and added six catches for 55 yards. Both the workload (39 touches) and production should silence critics. Let’s not forget though that he won’t face New Orleans every week.

Demarco Murray
The Cowboys’ offense turned in a huge dud at home to a Bucs’ defense that was lit like a Christmas tree a week earlier vs. the Giants. Murray was a big part of the problem as he tallied only 38 yards on 18 carries. Thankfully for owners he did find the end zone and caught a trio of Tony Romo passes so it wasn’t a complete dud. Still, the fact he has now rushed for a grand total of 82 yards on 30 carries (2.7 ypc) over his last two outings raises reason for concern. He gets the Bears, a bye and then Baltimore over his next three games, so relief is likely to come any time soon.

Mikel Leshoure
I stashed Leshoure long ago, hoping that he could emerge as the Lions’ primary running back upon his return. One week in he delivered. Leshoure not only started, but he carried the load for the Lions Sunday at Tennessee, rushing for 100 yards and a touchdown on 26 carries and catching four balls for 34 yards.  The biggest surprise was that Kevin Smith, who led the team in rushing the first two weeks, did not receive a single carry in the game.  While it would be smart to hold onto Smith, he isn’t a lineup option until further notice.

Brandon Lloyd
The Patriots dropped their second straight game in Sunday night’s loss to the Ravens and the offense seems out of whack. One thing that is looking like a lock though is Lloyd has emerged as Tom Brady’s top target. Lloyd had his first 100-yard outing of the season pulling nine of his team-high 12 targets for 108 yards. He hasn’t found the end zone yet, but that will come soon enough. He is a must-start option in nearly any lineup, especially in PPR formats.

Phillip Rivers
Rivers failed to throw a TD pass in Sunday’s loss against Atlanta posting a dismal 45.3 QB rating. The veteran managed just 173 yards, 0 TD’s and 2 INT’s on 21-of-38 passing. It’s clear that Rivers has little chemistry with newcomer Robert Meachem and the receiving corps lacks a true No. 1. With starting running back Ryan Mathews returning from injury to make the start, I was anticipating good things for the Chargers’ offense, but that was not the case. Rivers is hard to view as weekly lineup lock and is now more of a matchup play.

BIGGEST DISAPPOINTMENTS
--Michael Vick, Chris Johnson, Mark Ingram, Demaryius Thomas, Vincent Jackson

BIGGEST SURPRISES

--Christian Ponder, Jake Locker, Jacquiz Rodgers, Santonio Holmes, TY Hilton, Heath Miller

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Look Ahead: San Diego Chargers

14. July 2012  - Published by Dan Clasgens

INSIDE THE NUMBERS
Quarterback Phillip Rivers has turned out four straight seasons of at least 4,000 yards passing and 25 touchdowns, including throwing for 4,624 yards and 27 touchdowns a year ago.  After throwing just 22 interceptions in his previous two seasons, the Chargers’ signal caller was picked off 20 times in 2011. He did deliver six 300-yard passing days for owners last season and passed for multiple scores in eight of his 16 contests. Since taking over as the team’s starter in 2006 Rivers has not missed a start.

SCHEDULE
The Chargers get the NFC South and AFC North in addition to their six games vs. the AFC West and will also play the Titans and Jets. The bye comes in Week 7, which is always a good spot as it breaks up the season well. While four of the team’s last six games are at home, the slate is tough as it includes matchups with three playoff teams from a year ago, the Steelers, Bengals, and Ravens.  The Pittsburgh tilt on the road is not a great one to kick off the fantasy playoffs with, but Week 15 brings the Panthers which should be fantasy friendly, before the team travels across country for the Jets in Week 16.

STUD

Entering his third season, the best appears yet to come for running back Ryan Mathews. He averaged 12.4 fantasy points per game in 14 starts during his sophomore campaign and with Mike Tolbert no longer in the mix in San Diego he’ll have little competition for carries in 2012. He broke the 1000-yard mark rushing last season, finishing with 1,061 yards on 222 carries and scored six touchdowns. His 50 catches out of the backfield make him an even more dangerous weapon. Barring injury, Mathews should produce big numbers and be viewed as top five fantasy RB entering the season ahead.

DUD
Ronnie Brown
was signed during the offseason to serve as a backup to Mathews and enters the season as the Chargers’ No. 2 running back.  It remains to be seen how much gas the 30-year old runner has left in the tank, but after a dismal performance in a similar role in 2011 in Philadelphia in which he rushed for just 136 yards and 0 touchdowns on 42 carries we are not holding our breath. While he may not be a bad late-round handcuff for Mathews’ owners on draft day, other owners can find more upside to build their bench elsewhere.

SLEEPER
With so much attention being given to Rob Gronkowski and Jimmy Graham heading into the 2012 fantasy season, Antonio Gates is flying under the radar at the tight end position. Injuries have cost Gates nine games over the past two seasons and durability will remain a concern for the 32-year old tight end. However, with the team lacking a true No. 1 wide receiver many expect Gates to be Rivers’ top target in the passing game. If he can stay healthy Gates will produce elite numbers and is likely to be available 2-3 rounds later than some of the hot names at the position.

NEW ADDITIONS
After watching wideout Vincent Jackson depart to Tampa Bay via free agency, the Chargers signed free agents Robert Meachem and Eddie Royal to help build up its receiving corps. Meachem has made 20 trips to the end zone over the past three years, but has never more than 45 receptions of 722 yards in a single season playing in a Saints’ offense that spread the ball around. Royal has never been able to follow up his 2008 rookie numbers when he caught 91 balls for 980 yards and 5 TD’s, but could have late draft value in PPR formats as the Chargers’ new slot receiver.

POSITION BATTLE
It will be interesting to watch who emerges as the Chargers No. 1 wide receiver heading into the season, Meachem or Malcom Floyd. Meachem is definitely the better deep threat, averaging an impressive 16.1 yards per reception for his career. Floyd benefits from his familiarity with the offense and having played his entire career with Rivers throwing him the ball. After missing nine games the previous two seasons though Floyd will need to show he can stay healthy. Both wideouts have fantasy appeal, but neither should be viewed as anything more than a WR3 or WR4 by fantasy owners.

BENCH BUILDER
Despite showing some flashes as a rookie, Vincent Brown appears to be buried on the Chargers’ depth chart heading into 2012. He finished with 19 catches for 329 yards and a pair of touchdowns last season and should see plenty more targets in 2012. However, barring injury his snaps are going to be modest at best. He’s worth a late-round stab in yearly formats and carries a bit more value in dynasty leagues.

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2010 Fantasy Reflections: QB

12. February 2011  - Published by Dan Clasgens

As I begin to prepare my first official 2011 fantasy football rankings, I reflect on the 2010 fantasy season:

2011 TOP FIVE
--Aaron Rodgers: The passing yards (4,468) and touchdowns (34) are there, but his ability to pick up rushing numbers is hugely overlooked as he finished with 373 yards and five scores on the ground. That element of his game makes him my No. 1 pick at the position.

--Peyton Manning: For the fourth time in five years the Colts’ quarterback surpassed the 30-touchdown plateau while throwing for a career-high 4,925 yards. Injuries hampered the Colts’ badly, but Manning still proved fantasy worthy and perhaps the safest pick.

--Phillip Rivers: He set a career high in passing yards for the third straight season and emerged as an elite fantasy option. The 13 interceptions were a bit higher than we are used to seeing but when you consider all of the weapons that he was missing you have to really appreciate his 2010 effort.

--Drew Brees:  It’s hard to believe that Brees actually set a career-high this past season with 35 passing touchdowns. His 5,024 passing yards were the second most of his career.  His 22 interceptions were way too many, but there’s no reason not to keep him as a tier one fantasy option moving forward.

--Tom Brady: After a record streak of 335 passes without an interception and passing for 36 touchdowns with only four picks during the regular season, Brady reminded all fantasy owners that he can carry a team. Add to the fact he averaged 299 yards per game and consistency was king.


YOU KNOW WHAT YOU GET
--Michael Vick: Huge upside, big games, but with big injury risk
--Matt Ryan: Steady, but very few breakout games
--Ben Roethlisberger: He wins games, but doesn’t post huge fantasy numbers
--Tony Romo: Big numbers in pass-happy system; not dependable
--Eli Manning: Capable of big days, but hard to figure when they’ll come
--Jay Cutler: Decent yards and TD totals with a ton of turnovers


ON THE RISE
--Josh Freeman: The nucleus of a talented, young and exciting Bucs’ offense
--Mark Sanchez: Highly underrated with room to grow on talented team
--Sam Bradford: A stunning effort as a rookie suggests bigger things to comes


WAIT AND SEE
--Joe Flacco: Didn’t take a step to the next level even with newly added weapons
--Matt Schaub: Burned many owners as he took a back seat to Arian Foster
--Matt Cassell: Fool’s gold. Shined at times, but will find it tough to repeat in 2011


FADING FAST
--Carson Palmer: Threats of retirement shows how badly he needs a change of scenery
--Donovan McNabb: Ages every second. Skills are declining and needs to find a good fit
--Chad Henne: Proved he is not the long-term answer in Miami

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Fantasy Impact: Jackson Suspension

4. July 2010  - Published by Dan Clasgens

The news last week that Chargers’ wide receiver Vincent Jackson will be suspended three games after getting arrested for a second DUI in as many years not only hurts San Diego, but also puts a big damper on Jackson’s fantasy value.

Jackson emerged last season as the team’s No. 1 wideout and became a low-end tier 1 option for fantasy owners.  He finished 2009 by catching 68 balls for 1,167 yards and nine touchdowns and six 100-yard receiving games.

To further complicate matters Jackson, who is a restricted free agent, is threatening a holdout. The league allows players to serve a suspension while holding out, but there is a real possibility that Jackson could sit out until Week 10.

While this situation could clear itself up between now and many fantasy drafts, Jackson is definitely dropping in my wide receiver rankings.

Conversely you can expect the other Chargers’ wideouts, Malcom Floyd and Legedu Naanee, to see a slight boost in their value. Floyd now emerges as a solid sleeper option. There’s no doubt all of this could affect Phillip Rivers’ value as well. However, at this point I’m still treating him as a top five option for fantasy owners at quarterback.

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Game Balls - Week 2

20. September 2009  - Published by Jim Humbert

QB Game Ball - Jay Cutler, Chicago - 27/38, 236 yards, 2 TD

There were plenty of QBs who finished with better numbers than Cutler on Sunday, but none may have needed a good game more than Cutler. The Bears new QB bombed last week against the Packers and faced a tough opponent on Sunday in the Steelers. But he overcame his mistakes and led his team to a big win over the Superbowl champs.

QB Honorable Mention - Phillip Rivers, San Diego - 25/45, 436 yards, 2 TD, 2 INT (impressive stats especially against a team like the Ravens.)

 

RB Game Ball - Cedric Benson, Cincinnati - 29 carries, 141 yards

Everyone knows the Bengals can throw the football but now with Benson as the primary back, they can run it too. He had a nice game in week one against the Broncos and followed that up with a huge performance in Green Bay. If he can keep it up the Bengals may start turning some heads around the NFL.

RB Honorable Mentions - Frank Gore, San Francisco & Chris Johnson, Tennessee (530 total combined yards and 5 TDs between the two studs.)

 

WR Game Ball - Andre Johnson, Houston - 10 catches, 149 yards, 2 TD

After grabbing just four passes last week, Johnson proved his worth against the Titans on Sunday. It's those type of numbers owners can expect from one of the top receivers in the league. And a healthy Kevin Walker will make him, and the Texans offense, even better.

WR Honorable Mention - Mike Sims-Walker, Jacksonville - 6 catches, 106 yards, 1 TD (this weeks top waiver-wire pick-up!)

 

TE Game Ball - Tony Gonzalez, Atlanta - 7 catches, 71 yards, 1 TD

Last week I gave Tony G an honorable mention. This week the award is all his. Many thought, inlcuding myself, that Gonzalez would just be a nice addition to the Falcons offense. It turns out he is becoming the main focus.

TE Honorable Mention - Chris Cooley Washington - 7 catches, 83 yards (just glad I didn't have to watch that 9-7 game.)

 

The Game Used Sock Award - Brady Quinn, Cleveland - 18/31, 0 TD, 1 Int

I always feel better when the Browns lose. and it is even nicer when they really stink it up. With Quinn at the helm that may be happening a lot this season. I'll admit I have him stashed away, deep on one of my fantasy teams that has unlimited roster spots. But I don't think I'll be starting him any time soon. For that matter, he may not be starting soon! Hey, look on the bright side - he finished with four rushing yards. And a couple of dirty socks.

Dirty Sock Honorable Mention - Tom Brady, New England - 23/47, 216 yards, 0 TD, 1 Int (no Wes Welker - whatever.)

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FantasySportsGirl.com: Chargers Preview

17. August 2009  - Published by Dan Clasgens
Fantasy Sports Girl Lana has the San Diego Chargers camp preview...

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GSI Mock Draft: Round Four

31. July 2009  - Published by Dan Clasgens

The annual GSI Mock Draft is rolling right along. Don't miss our takes and explanations and offer your take too...

RECAPS: Round One | Round Two | Round Three

   

ROUND FOUR
37. BROERING - QB D. McNabb (PHI)
38. SIMON - WR B. Marshall (DEN)
39. DINSMORE - RB R. Brown (MIA)
40. BRYANT - WR W. Welker (NE)
41. WETZEL - QB A. Rodgers (GB)
42. SCHMITT - RB C. Benson (CIN)
43. SIMS - TE J. Witten (DAL)
44. MURDICO - WR R. Williams (DAL)
45. ANSELMO - RB K. Smith (DET)
46. CLASGENS - RB R. Bush (NO)
47. FISCHER - RB J. Stewart (CAR)
48. HUMBERT - QB P. Rivers (SD)

POSITION BREAKDOWN: RB (5), QB (3), WR (3), TE (1)

MY PICK: Like many others in the league, the time to get my RB2 came in Round 4. This league is not a PPR league, so Reggie Bush loses some of his luster. However, he is still a nice grab with the 46th overall pick and a steady RB2 option with upside. Injuries have been a problem, but he's worth the risk here. One look at his numbers through the first seven games (two rushing TD's, three receiving TD's, and 660 total yards) last season though so his potential to be a solid starting option.

BEST VALUE PICK: Aaron Rodgers will be valued much higher this season than last and rightfully so after he had 10 multiple-touchdown games in '08. I don't put him in the same ballpark as the top three quarterbacks, but he definitely is nice value 18 picks after Tom Brady went and 19 picks following Peyton Manning.

MOST LIKELY TO DISAPPOINT: Count me as somebody that is not buying into the Roy Williams being an automatic replacement for Terrell Owens in Dallas. Of the three receivers selected within this round, he by far has the best chance to be a bust. He had problems adjusting mid-season in Dallas and suffered a foot injury down the stretch. The potential is there, but at this point I can find somebody that had more than seven touchdown catches over the past two years.

FINAL TAKE: This round was predictable. We saw our first tight end go off the board in Jason Witten (nice pick), five teams go with RB2 and a few quarterbacks and wideouts. In general, waiting on quarterback didn't prove too badly for the three owners that took signal callers here.

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Divisional Round: Final Take

11. January 2009  - Published by Dan Clasgens

The conference championship games are set, but before we turn the page to next week's big showdown, I had to sound off on some final takes from the divisional rounds...

*The Ravens continued to live up to the hype I've been giving them, but the Titans really shot themselves in the foot. They can blame the refs all they want about the blown call on a blatant delay of game, yet they still can not deny the fact that despite 391 total yards of offense costly turnovers and penalaties sealed their fate. It's amazing that the Titans kept it as close as they did even though they turned the ball over three times to the Ravens' zero.

*Joe Flacco once again did enough to help his team won the game. Another game without a pick or a sack. Consider that the Ravens managed just 50 yards rushing and the rookie's 161 passing yards seem pretty impressive.

*The game could have been a different story had Chris Johnson not suffered an ankle injury midway through the second quarter. He left the game with 72 yards on 11 carries and a touchdown.  The Ravens were struggling to find an answer for the rookie.

*I still can't get over the thumping Arizona handed Carolina. The Panthers had two weeks to prepare, were 8-0 at home, and a double-digit favorite. Take nothing away from Arizona, but that is the biggest egg laid by a higher-seeded team in this round in recent memory. 

*Larry Fitzgerald continues to show me that he is the best receiver in football and right now the Cardinals look smart for giving him the money they deserved. He accounted for 75% of the team's 220 receiving yards, finishing with 8 receptions for 166 yards and a TD.

*The Eagles beat the Giants for the second time this season in their house. New York did not look like Super Bowl champs today and really have not looked as good since troubled wideout Plaxico Burress shot himself in the leg and shot the Giants' chances for a repeat.

*Andy Reid outcoached Tom Coughlin on Sunday and it started with the coin flip. Coughlin opted not play the wind game and took the ball right off the bat. It didn't seem bad when Ahmad Bradshaw ran his longest return of the season back. However, Eli Manning couldn't get on track throwing into the fierce breezes early in the game and it was even worse in the fourth quarter when the team was forced to come from two scores down.

*Brian Westbrook was not a factor in this game. He had 20 touches, yet he only mustered 46 total yards and did not score. The Giants owned him, but they couldn't translate that into a victory.

*It figures Willie Parker finally gets healthy after my fantasy season is over. Two touchdowns and 146 yards on the ground shows that Fast Willie is finally nearing 100%.

*Pittsburgh officially has the best homefield advantage in football.

*Phillip Rivers' season may be over, but it wasn't because of his play. He finished with 308 yards and three scoring strikes against a very good secondary and while under intense pressure. Rivers has arrived as one of the league's elite passers.

*As a Bengals' fan I hate the Steelers and Ravens. Stil, I was rooting for both this weekend. Sure, money had something to do with (bet on both). I would rather have our division do good than have it look like chumps. Clearly, these our the two best defenses in the league and now they meet next Sunday for a third time this year.

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Playoff Picks: Divisional Round

8. January 2009  - Published by Dan Clasgens

Man each week the NFL season draws closer to an end, and each week the depression kicks in a little more. Still, there are some great games on tap this weekend and I am going to try to enjoy them to the fullest. Let's take a look each game as I tell you how I see things unfolding and give you my picks.

BALTIMORE (12-5) at TENNESSEE (13-3) - Titans favored by 3
Outlook: The Titans won the Week 5 meeting 13-10 in Baltimore and this one promises to be another slugfest. Baltimore comes into the game off an impressive opening-round victory and seem to be clicking on all cylinders. In the Week 5 meeting the Ravens controlled the clock and limited Tennessee to 47 yards rushing. Tennessee will need more effective running the ball this time around. Ravens' QB Joe Flacco threw two picks in the first meeting, but hasn't been turning the ball over as much of late. The two teams are extremely similar statisically in PaYd per game, RuYd per game, points scored, points allowed, give-aways, and take-aways. The game could easily come down to which team can put points on the board with their defense of special teams.

My Pick: Ravens 20, Titans 16...The one underdog I like to win straight up this week.

Fantasy Clicks: PLAY - Chris Johnson, LeRon McClain, Derrick Mason, Bo Scaife, Rob Bironas, Matt Stover, Ravens DEF, Titans DEF; DON'T PLAY - Joe Flacco, Kerry Collins, LenDale White, Any Titans' WR, Todd Heap.


ARIZONA (10-7) at CAROLINA (12-4) - Panthers favored by 10
Outlook: Talk about two teams that are completely different, the Cardinals and Panthers have gotten to this point in completely different manners. The Panthers have a top-notched running game and an above average defense. The Cardinals boast the league's most prolific passing attack, but struggle to move the ball on the ground and has played inconsistent this year on defense. The game is in Carolina and that could be the difference. Arizona is just 3-5 away from the friendly confines of the desert and and the Panthers are a perfect 8-0 at Bank of America Stadium. Kurt Warner has passed for twice as many TD's as Jake Delhomme (30:15), but Edgerrin James and Tim Hightower collectively were nearly outproduced by the Panthers' No. 2 running back Jonathan Stewart on the ground (913 yards to 836 yards). DeAngelo Williams finished thrid in the NFL in rushing with 1515 yards.

My Pick: Carolina 31, Arizona 20...The Cards will have some success on offense, but will not be able to stop the run this week.

Fantasy Clicks: PLAY - Jake Delhomme, Kurt Warner, DeAngelo Williams, Edgerrin James, Jonathan Stewart, Steve Smith, Larry Fitzgerald, Steve Breaston, Anquan Boldin (game-time decision), Mushin Muhammad, John Kasay, Neil Rackers; DON'T PLAY - Tim Hightower, Stephen Spach, Donte Rosario, Panthers DEF, Cardinals DEF.


PHILADELPHIA (10-6-1) at NY GIANTS (13-3) - Giants favored by 4.5

Outlook: I am still trying to figure out the Eagles even got this point. It wasn't too long ago I went and watched them tie the Bengals. Much has happened since then and the Eagles have won 4 of their last 5 games to get to this point. The Giants are the defending champs and come into the game well rested. While the Eagles finished the season red hot, the Giants were a bit sluggish down the stretch as they dealt with problems on and off the field. The two teams split in their head-to-head match-ups with Philly, winning 20-14 in Week 14 at the Meadowlands. Eli Manning has looked rough down the stretch (only averaging 153 PaYd per game w/out Plaxico). The G-Men will enjoy a healthy return of Brandon Jacobs.

My Pick: Giants 20, Eagles 14...the rubber match should be a good one, but I still like the champs coming off two weeks of rest.

Fantasy Clicks: PLAY - Donovan McNabb, Brian Westbrook, Brandon Jacobs, Derrick Ward, DeSean Jackson, Kevin Curtis, Domenik Hixon, Kevin Boss, Brent Celek, Eagles DEF, David Akers, John Carney; DON'T PLAY - Eli Manning, Correll Buckhalter, Amani Toomer, Giants DEF.


SAN DIEGO (9-8) at PITTSBURGH (12-4) - Steelers favored by 6

Outlook: A little over a month ago I pegged the Chargers as the most overrated team and declared Norv Turner one of the worst coaches in the league. It's amazing what five straight wins can do for job somebody's job security. Behind the Pro Bowl caliber play of Phillip Rivers and the speedy Darren Sproles San Diego has caught a bolt of lightning. Pittsburgh's defense is as good as ever and quarterback Ben Roethlisberger continues to find ways to win. The Steelers' ground attack has been disappointing, but it hasn't matter much as they've continue to beat good team after good team. They have the best homefield advantage of any team in the playoffs and that could make the difference here. San Diego lost at Pittsburhg in Week 11 in the first 11-10 game in NFL history.

My Pick: Pittsburgh 21, Chargers 14...as much as I hate them the Steelers are my Super Bowl pick right now and I am sticking with it!

Fantasy Clicks: PLAY - Ben Roethlisberger, Willie Parker, Hines Ward, Santonio Holmes, Vincent Jackson, Antonio Gates, Heath Miller, Steelers; DON'T PLAY - Phillip Rivers, Darren Sproles (fear the Steelers' D), LaDainian Tomlinson (hurt), Chris Chambers, Chargers DEF, Nate Kaeding, Jeff Reed.

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