Fantasy Value Meter: Toronto

5. March 2013  - Published by Dan Clasgens

Undervalued – C J.P. Arencibia:  The Blue Jays’ backstop isn’t going to help fantasy team’s with his average, but there is enough power there to make him a nice low-end catcher option. Despite missing nearly a month of action with a broken hand Arencibia still managed to hit 18 HR and drive in 56 runs in his 102 games a year ago. While catcher is still a thin position in fantasy, there are some low-end options with upside and the 27-year old tops our list.

Overvalued – SP R.A. Dickey: Dickey’s breakout campaign in 2012 was preceded by two solid seasons in 2010 and 2011, but now he’s moving from the NL East to the AL East. Coming of a Cy Young effort the knuckleballer will be valued at all-time high on draft day. Expect him to continue to produce decent ERA and WHIP numbers. However, a bit a dip should be expected especially on his 230 K’s he yielded a year ago. Dickey is a nice option for any fantasy rotation, we just expect him to go a bit earlier than he should based of last year’s career efforts.

Sleeper – SP Ricky Romero: After three solid seasons, Romero struggled mightily in 2012. It’s hard to put a finger on what was the cause of his woes a year ago. He watched his BABIP go from .242 to .311 and his first-pitch strike average drop to 53.3 percent. However, his groundball rate was a solid 53.3 percent which should spell good things with an improved middle infield defense with Jose Reyes and Maicer Izturis. Expect Romero to have a bounce-back campaign and pay dividends for owners that take a stab late with him late on draft day.

Bust – SP Mark Buehrle: The veteran’s low-strikeout rate has always limited his fantasy upside and now he’s starting to show signs of decline. He was unimpressive last year in his move to the NL where he posted a 4.45 ERA and allowed 16 HR’s away from the friendly confines of the spacious Marlin’s ballpark. His fastball tops out at 85 MPH these days too and all of that combined should leaves owners weary of his move to the AL East.

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Another No-No, Cain Is Perfect

14. June 2012  - Published by Dan Clasgens

San Francisco Giants pitcher Matt Cain became the 22nd person in MLB history to throw a perfect game in Wednesday’s win over the Astros, striking out 14 batters in the process.

Amazingly, it’s the fifth no-hitter thrown to this point of the season, and the Mets’ RA Dickey nearly threw one earlier in the night in his 1-hit effort versus Tampa Bay.

Already this year, there have been two perfect games, the second time in three years there have been two perfect games in the same season. The only other time that happened was in 1880.

There have already been five no-hitters by mid-June. There hasn't been this many no-hitters at this juncture since 1917.

With the Steroids Era officially behind it, Major League Baseball is becoming a pitcher’s league. However, it is not the only factor to be considered.  Equally important has been the ban on amphetamines, which took place before the 2006 season. This has caused players not to be as fresh and tire easily.

In addition, the trend of more teams going younger in their lineups is a factor. Cain dominated an Astros team that is 26-36, eight in the NL in runs and whose lineup had six hitters 25 or younger. Younger hitters typically mean hitters that aren’t as disciplined.

Pitchers are striking out batters at a record pace 7.5 times per nine innings.There were 10 starting pitchers who had at least eight strikeouts Wednesday night, and according to ESPN, the 257-strikeout total tied for the third-most in a single day since 2000.

COMPLETE PERFECT GAME HISTORY (MLB.com)

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Dickey Masters Knuckleball

8. June 2012  - Published by Dan Clasgens

Many thought the knuckleball ERA in Major League Baseball had come to an end, but the New York Mets’ RA Dickey has done his part in changing skeptics’ minds this season.

Dickey moved to 9-1 on the season in a win over the Nationals on Thursday in which he went 7 1/3 innings and struck out eight batters.  He now has 78 Ks (sixth in NL) to go along with a 1.08 WHIP and a 2.44 ERA on the season.

As ESPN.com’s Tristan H. Cockcroft pointed out in a recent article “coming into his latest outing, Dickey was already on the roll with 38 K's in his past four starts combined, 34 of those on the knuckleball. He limited opponents to .184/.217/.299 triple-slash rates with his knuckler in those four games, generating misses on 34 percent of swings.”

Since 2009, all major league pitchers have afforded .253/.297/.398 rates and a 21 percent swing-and-miss rate on knuckleballs (Dickey threw 47 percent of the total).

FANTSAY SLANT:
Dickey has become a must-start option in all formats right now as opposing batters continue to try to figure him out. The fact he’s able to land the knuckleballs in the strike zone is making him one of the toughest pitchers in baseball to hit right now.  You would expect his value to be at an all-time high right now which may make it a good time to shop him. However, his rate of return will likely not be as high as his numbers indicate so owners may be part off to simply ride out the streak.

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