INSIDE THE NUMBERS
There was a lot of talk about the season Alex Smith had, and how his career was revitalized. Heck, there was even chatter about Smith being a Pro Bowl-caliber quarterback. But, in the NFC where the names Brees, Manning and Rodgers dominate, Smith does not belong beside those names. A closer look at his numbers reveals a QB who is nothing more than a backup fantasy QB. Yes, he threw for more than 3,100 yards last year (by far a career high), but a lot of those yards were meaningless from a fantasy perspective. In standard scoring systems, Smith only put up 20+ points one week last season and only threw for three TDs once all season. Compile that with very average or downright awful weeks nine times, and you have a QB who cannot carry your fantasy squad to a championship.

SCHEDULE
The 49ers have the 24th easiest schedule, according to Vegas. In fact, there’s few lockdown opponents lurking on the Niners schedule. Down the stretch, during the fantasy playoff weeksthey play the Rams, Dolphins, Patriots and Seahawks. That could be fantasy gold right when you need it. And it will certainly make the 49ers defense a top fantasy choice again this year.

STUD
Vernon Davis was an inconsistent fantasy tight end last year. He showed flashes of greatness like his two-touchdown performance in week five, and then just broke his fantasy owners’ hearts at other times like his one catch for 32 yard performance in Week 14. But, then in the NFL playoffs, Davis went off, and finished strong. He had back-to-back two-touchdown games in the postseason, which is reason to put Davis in the top 10 of fantasy tight ends. GSI rankings have him at #5 overall, which is about where he belongs. More playoff-like performances await Davis, than Week 14 performances.

DUD
A four-running back rotation in San Francisco will greatly diminish the value of Frank Gore. The Niners signed Brandon Jacobs in the offseason, drafted LaMichael James in the second round to add to Gore and Kendall Hunter. That might be great for the Niners as a whole, but spells fantasy doom for those expecting big things from Frank Gore. Once a stalwart of the first round, Gore cannot be counted on as anything more than a RB2 at this point. Jacobs will steal his TDs, James will knock down his pass-catching attempts and Hunter is always lurking too. There’s just too many players involved which spells diminished touches to his 282 carries last year. Expect that number to be way down this year, and thus, steer clear of Gore.

SLEEPER
The Niners receiving corps is as crowded as their backfield, so trying to find who will be the standout performer is a challenge. Mario Manningham seems like a logical choice. With attention being on Vernon Davis, Michael Crabtree and the newly signed Randy Moss, Manningham will have friendly assignments and is savvy enough to put up decent numbers. Manningham could be a solid WR3 and a nice little late-round find for your fantasy squad. Expect similar numbers to last year, where he was in a very similar situation with the Giants. Pencil Manningham down for about 40-50 catches and around five touchdowns, which will bebetter than Randy Moss gets.

NEW ADDITIONS
The Niners were busy in the offseason, rading the Giants of some of their talent and adding a future Hall of Famer in Randy Moss. As mentioned, Brandon Jacobs joins the team to serve a role similar to what he did last year for the Giants. At age 35, Moss is more of a name than a talent. He was always one dimensional, known mostly as a deep threat. Now older,Moss has a limited skill set, and the Niners coaching staff knows it. Look for a limited set of plays and packages for Moss, which means limited opportunities for him. Jacobs is a big, hulking back, who never seemed to know how big he was. In New York, Jacobs tried to run small, and was accused of being soft. If he can learn to be a pounder (and hold onto the ball), the Niners can exploit him as a short-yardage back.

POSITION BATTLE
Where isn’t there a position battle in the Bay area? The backfield is loaded with talent, and the receiving corps is full of veterans wanting the ball. The presence of Manningham and Moss will have a positive impact on Michael Crabtree. He led the team with 72 receptions last year. Some believe that Manningham and Moss will make that number go down, but it may actually drive Crabtree to raise his performance, and he may also learn from the two vets. It may also mean more single coverage for Crabtree which will greatly benefit his fantasy value.

BENCH BUILDER
LaMichael James has to earn his touches and playing time. It’s a crowded backfield situation. Niners running backs coach Tom Rathman, who knows a thing or two about performing in the NFL, believes the backfield by committee will sort itself in the preseason. So watch these games close to see how James performs. The rookie running back is dynamic. Playing time will be tough to come by, but with his specific skill set, James has tremendous upside. In dynasty/keeper leagues, James is worth a look as someone to stash on your bench. And, if/when Gore or Jacobs goes down hurt, be ready to pounce on the waiver wire for James.

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Here’s a list of players I just can’t see myself drafting in 2012 and why:

Peyton Manning (DEN) – Manning certainly has some potential and may be a surprise here on the list. He’s trying to come back from injury, but the greater concerns to me are his transition to a new team and his tough slate (including cold weather games). He’s definitely a QB1 I just think with all the hype surrounding him he’ll go earlier in drafts than I will be willing to invest.

Frank Gore (SF) – His role is going to decline this year, but the question is how much? With so many backs on the depth chart with some ability the touches are simply not going to be there. Throw in his subpar numbers a year ago (no 100-yard games over last 8 and 8 total TD’s on season) and I hope to do better for my RB2.

Jahvid Best (DET) – There’s no questioning his ability to make plays, but the concussion problems are the icing on the cake for his growing list of durability concerns. He has a current ADP of 80.42 as the 29th overall RB off the board. I favor some other names that surround him on the list such as Mark Ingram, Ben Tate, Willis McGahee and Peyton Hillis.

James Starks (GB) – Starks teased owners last year with the fast start and the promise of being the No. 1 RB in the Packers’ high-octane attack. Yet even with Ryan Grant no longer in the picture, there’s little to be excited about with Starks. You’re better off waiting around and taking a late stab at Alex Green, who could supplant Starks if his struggles continue.

Randy Moss (SF) – After not playing last season, Moss’ return to the league has been highly touted.  I am having a tough time envisioning him suddenly being fantasy relevant, something he hasn’t been since 2009. Alex Smith is not going to light up the world and consistency is going to be too tough to come by for the veteran.

Chad Johnson (MIA) – I am pretty sure I’ve got his name right. Ochocinco died in New England, where he struggled to learn the playbook. Winning a starting job in Miami might be in reach, but that doesn’t necessarily translate into fantasy success. At 34, Johnson no longer has the physical advantage he possessed a few years ago.

Kenny Britt (TEN) – Injuries, suspensions, and stupidity. Those are not great combinations for a player on your fantasy roster. Britt has all the talent in the world, but there are simply too many hurdles that will need to be cleared for him to be anything more than a roster stash in redraft leagues.

Jacksonville Jaguars – With Maurice Jones-Drew’s holdout going nowhere, even he’s not appealing to me. Throw in a ridiculous workload the past two seasons and a decline should be expected. The rest of the team is terrible and though there are talented players there, I just don’t want have to count on this offense period.

Kicker & Defense/ST – OK I guess my league rules require me to draft a kicker and a Team Defense/ST. However, I will not even think about either until the LAST TWO ROUNDS.  Do not waste a pick any earlier.

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Winning NFL picks, odds and power rankings all from our friends at Doc's Sports Service.

JUDGE FORCES MEDIATION (ESPN.com)
Judge Susan Nelson has ordered mediation between the NFL players and owners to begin in Minneapolis on Thursday. Nelson is still considering lifting the lockout after the players dissolved their union which clear the way for a long, drawn out court battle. The good news is that the two sides are talking again for the first time since March 11. The bad news is no end remains in sight and with the draft approaching quickly many teams and pending free agents remain in a quagmire…MORE

NEWTON IN QUEEN CITY (Cincinnati Enquirer)
Auburn quarterback Cam Newton was in Cincinnati on Monday to visit with the Bengals, who have made it clear that they covet the Heisman Trophy winner. He is set to visit Cleveland on Wednesday and Denver this weekend as well as a stop in Washington D.C. on April 18 with the NFL draft just two weeks away. With Carolina (No. 1 overall pick) and Buffalo (No. 3) reportedly highly interested in Newton it remains to be seen if he will be available to the Bengals with the fourth overall selection…MORE

JETS NOT INTERESTED IN MOSS (FOXSports.com)
A reliable league source tells FOXSports.com that the Jets have "no interest" in bringing in the talented but troubled wideout. Multiple reports this week indicated the Jets had serious interest. Sources tell FOXSports.com that coach Rex Ryan talked in glowing terms about Moss as a way to motivate Jets free agent Santonio Holmes. Moss was terrible last season while playing on three different team and it remains to be seen what he still has to offer…MORE

BRONCOS WANT TO MOVE DOWN (ProFootballTalk.com)
Many are suggesting that it makes sense for the Denver Broncos to trade down from the No. 2 overall spot in the draft, but much of it will depend on what Carolina does with the top pick.  Miles Klis of the Denver Post wrote that the team would like to move back, but in stay in the top eight while acquiring an extra pick. There are always teams that want to move down, but few clubs that want to move up. With the uncertainty surrounding the league entering this draft it is going to be hard to pull off…MORE

PRESEASON SCHEDULE RELEASED (NFL.com)
Assuming the season actually begins the Rams and Bears will face-off in the annual Hall of Game. The NFL released the complete preseason matchups on Tuesday in the midst of a lockout, taking even more luster out of what had little luster to begin with, the preseason. Exact dates and times for games not shown on national TV will be announced later…MORE

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The Tennessee Titans claimed Randy Moss on Wednesday and apparently they were the only team to do so.

“We had an opportunity to upgrade our offense and Randy has been a tremendous threat wherever he has been," head coach Jeff Fisher told reporters. "We will bring him up to speed as quickly as possible.’’

The Titans, who are without wide receiver Kenny Britt (hamstring) for an extended period, needed to add depth to the passing attack.

Moss was released by the Vikings earlier this week just 25 days after the team traded its 2011 third-round pick to acquire him.

He has caught 22 balls for 313 yards and five touchdowns in eight games with Minnesota and New England.

Tennessee is on a bye during Week 9 so Moss will not practice with team until next week and will likely make his Titan debut on November 14 versus the Dolphins, a team in which he has success against.

The Titans enter their bye at 5-3 and a half of game behind the Indianapolis Colts in the AFC South.

MY TAKE: I seem to remember one other time where all the teams in the league opted to pass on Moss except one. The year was 1998 and the Vikings drafted him when so many others passed. He responded by producing one of the most prolific rookie seasons at the position ever.  That was a long time ago. Moss no longer possesses the skill sets he did, but the baggage remains.  I don’t question whether he has enough left in the tank to be a legit No. 1, but you have to wonder if he’s going to provide effort. His on-off switch shorts out at times and that is why he is wearing a third uniform in less than a month.  Without defending his antics though, I still think Moss is not at fault here. Brad Childress is an idiot.  The Titans got Moss for nothing more than a waiver claim.  Childress admitted Wednesday that trading for Moss for a “poor decision” Moss may very well be headed somewhere the Vikings coach won’t be, the playoffs. With free agency looming, look for Moss once again to prove his critics wrong as long as he decides he wants to. Signing him was a good, low-risk move for the Titans.

FANTASY SLANT: The Titans are not a passing team (30th in pass attempts) and Vince Young doesn’t have the cannon to utilize Moss’ deep threat. Expect Moss to get a fair share of touchdowns and a decent amount of targets per game though.  The schedule is very favorable with two games against the Colts and Texans, a matchup with Jacksonville (worst pass defense in league) still ahead.  Owners are going to have to play a wait-and-see approach, but Moss could be a good buy-low candidate.  Nobody benefits more than Chris Johnson. The addition of Moss should mean more open space for the explosive playmaker to produce highlights. Vince Young obviously gets a boost, but the rest of the team’s wide receivers all drop even further down the fantasy radar.

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The Minnesota Vikings shocked the football world on Monday when they waived Randy Moss, just four weeks after trading for the Pro Bowl wide receiver.

Moss, who cost the Vikings a third-round draft pick, had only one catch for 8 yards against the Patriots. In four games for the Vikings, he had 13 catches for 174 yards and two touchdowns.

Head coach Brad Childress told players in a meeting that Moss would no longer be with the team. The two butted heads from beginning

"Randy is very sad to find out about being waived by the Vikings this morning," Moss' agent, Joel Segal, said in an e-mail to the Star Tribune. "He has and always will remain fond of the fans in Minnesota. We will let the process of the waiver wire take its course and we will move on from there."

FANTASY IMPACT: Owners should hold on to Moss for now and see where he ends up. As for the Vikings’ passing game Brett Favre and Percy Harvin, both who are dealing with injuries, lose a bit of their luster. The team will likely lean more on running back Adrian Peterson, but overall Minnesota’s offense is a train wreck right now. Proceed with caution.

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Rarely are there impact trades in the NFL. But this week, there were two, including one involving a future Hall of Famer.

Marshawn Lynch gets traded to the Seahawks

Rumors had swirled that Lynch was going to be dealt, probably to the Packers. It was a little shocking when news broke of his deal to the Pacific Northwest instead of the Frozen Tundra. To make room for Lynch, the Seahawks cut Julius Jones who was fantasy irrelevant anyway.

Winners of the trade: Obviously Lynch benefits from this deal as he steps into a bigger role on Seattle on a slightly better team. Lynch will need some time to learn some plays and he likely will get at least 10 touches initially. Fred Jackson and CJ Spiller also come out with a better value as a result. For some reason, the Bills were not giving their young talented RBs enough touches. With Lynch gone, that problem is remedied. Look for Jackson to gain the most from this deal with Spiller's value increasing as well. In PPR leagues, Jackson makes for a nice pickup.

Losers of the trade: Justin Forsett and Leon Washington are the biggest losers of this deal. Clearly, the Seahawks front office didn't like what they saw from Forsett. Washington had started performing and will still have a role. Forsett's value drops down an entire tier (or about 10 rating points) as a result of this deal.

Randy Moss goes back to Minnesota

When the Patriots make up their mind to do something, they do it. And they rarely make bad personnel moves, but this one looks like a head scratcher. Moss, a future HOF WR, goes to Brett Favre's Vikings for a fourth round draft pick. Major win for the Vikings.

Winners of the trade: Brett Favre's value goes way up as he finally gets the deep threat he desperately needed. Additionally, Adrian Peterson's value goes even higher as now defenses have to stop stuffing the line and will have to gameplan for Moss. Moss' value neither goes up or down. He's still an elite WR who should be started every week. On the Patriots, Brandon Tate comes out as the big winner. He steps in now as a starting WR for a pass-first team. He's a great waiver wire pickup this week, while the Pats are on bye. Julian Edelman's value also gets a bump. Aaron Hernandez had been excelling as a potential rookie of the year and now his value goes sky high. I can see where Hernandez gets moved to the slot, away from tight end. Hernandez has the sure hands Brady loves. Look for his targets to go up as a result.

Losers of the trade: It's hard to call Tom Brady a loser (although with that hair cut it gets easier). But his value takes a small hit with his big time receiver gone. I don't anticipate it to cause Brady owners too much concern though. Wes Welker will now get the #1 cornerback assignment and double/triple teams. Welker is, by far, the biggest loser of the Moss trade. He's such a great route runner, that he's not going to disappear, but I would drop his value an entire tier until you see what comes of this.

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Fantasy Sports Girl newbie Brittani has the New England Patriots camp preview...

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After a solid first round things started to get interesting in Round Two of the GSI Mock Draft...

RECAPS: Round One

ROUND TWO
13. BROERING - WR L. Fitzgerald (ARI)
14. SIMON - WR R. Moss (NE)
15. DINSMORE - WR A. Johnson (HOU)
16. BRYANT - RB S. Slaton (HOU)
17. WETZEL - RB C. Portis (WAS)
18. SCHMITT - WR R. Wayne (IND)
19. SIMS - WR C. Johnson (DET)
20. MURDICO - RB B. Jacobs (NYG)
21. ANSELMO - WR A. Boldin (ARI)
22. CLASGENS - QB P. Manning (IND)
23. FISCHER - QB T. Brady (NE)
24. HUMBERT - WR G. Jennings (GB)

POSITION BREAKDOWN: WR (7), RB (3), QB (2)

MY PICK: There are three quarterbacks that I consider Tier 1 candidates - Drew Brees, Peyton Manning, and Tom Brady. Brees (who was taken 4th overall) went in the opening round and I was a bit surprised to see Manning and Brady both fall to me with the 22nd overall pick. I was anticipating both of them going sooner and turning to my WR1 here, but I will take a franchise quarterback. Ultimately, Brady has more upside than Manning, but Peyton is the "safer" bet in my eyes. His '08 numbers were a bit disappointing for owners, but too many people disregarded his preseason knee surgery that limited him to just three TD passes in the team's first three contests. I'm not buying into the Harrison departing hurts him theory either. Harrison was a non-factor (no TD's or fewer than 50 yards) in 10 games last season and Manning still averaged 230 yards per game and threw 14 TD's in those outings.

BEST VALUE PICK: Some owners will be a bit gun shy to pull the trigger on Tom Brady, but they shouldn't be. The Patriots were confident enough in his recovery from knee surgery to send backup Matt Cassel to Kansas City. If the veteran signal caller even comes close to sniffing 2007 numbers, he will make the owners that passed him over for a wideout. Outside the top three or four receivers, the difference between No. 5 and No. 12 is marginal. The same can't be said at quarterback.

MOST LIKELY TO DISAPPOINT: Once again it's hard to nit pick some of the top 25 players taken in a fantasy draft, but if I had to pick a guy that could disappoint from this round I go with Steve Slaton. Just by looking at my Cheat Sheet you can see that I am not as high on him as Ron Bryant is as I have ranked as the No. 14 running back at this point. Slaton is solid and has the ability to score on any play. He may not carry a huge workload, but the production is there. However, I likely would have went after a receiver here.  It is a long time before Ron gets to pick again. He could have had a stud quarterback or an elite wideout and instead opted for a running back that most websites don't have in the Top 10. There will be more running backs to choose from in Round Three than there will be QB's and WR's.

FINAL TAKE: A solid round by all. As predicited the run on receivers came and came large. Expect Round Two in your league to be the same way.

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Also posted on BleacherReport.com: 

It was just two years ago that Randy Moss helped re-write the record books, catching 24 touchdowns as the Patriots rolled through a perfect season.

Moss, who was hands down fantasy’s top wideout at this time last year, suffered a bit of setback in 2008 after Tom Brady went down in week one to a season-ending knee injury.

There’s no doubt Moss still has the potential to be fantasy’s top wideout.  At 32, there is still enough gas in the tank and he's always had the speed, size and athleticism to cause havoc for opposing defenses.

However, with the emergence of Larry Fitzgerald, Andre Johnson and Calvin Johnson, it’s hard to justify putting Moss atop the wide receiver rankings to start the season.

Expect 90 receptions for about 1,300 yards and 15 touchdowns. If those numbers hold true Moss will be a steal as early as Round 2 on draft day.

COMPLETE ARTICLE

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