INSIDE THE NUMBERS
Quarterback Phillip Rivers has turned out four straight seasons of at least 4,000 yards passing and 25 touchdowns, including throwing for 4,624 yards and 27 touchdowns a year ago.  After throwing just 22 interceptions in his previous two seasons, the Chargers’ signal caller was picked off 20 times in 2011. He did deliver six 300-yard passing days for owners last season and passed for multiple scores in eight of his 16 contests. Since taking over as the team’s starter in 2006 Rivers has not missed a start.

SCHEDULE
The Chargers get the NFC South and AFC North in addition to their six games vs. the AFC West and will also play the Titans and Jets. The bye comes in Week 7, which is always a good spot as it breaks up the season well. While four of the team’s last six games are at home, the slate is tough as it includes matchups with three playoff teams from a year ago, the Steelers, Bengals, and Ravens.  The Pittsburgh tilt on the road is not a great one to kick off the fantasy playoffs with, but Week 15 brings the Panthers which should be fantasy friendly, before the team travels across country for the Jets in Week 16.

STUD
Entering his third season, the best appears yet to come for running back Ryan Mathews. He averaged 12.4 fantasy points per game in 14 starts during his sophomore campaign and with Mike Tolbert no longer in the mix in San Diego he’ll have little competition for carries in 2012. He broke the 1000-yard mark rushing last season, finishing with 1,061 yards on 222 carries and scored six touchdowns. His 50 catches out of the backfield make him an even more dangerous weapon. Barring injury, Mathews should produce big numbers and be viewed as top five fantasy RB entering the season ahead.

DUD
Ronnie Brown was signed during the offseason to serve as a backup to Mathews and enters the season as the Chargers’ No. 2 running back.  It remains to be seen how much gas the 30-year old runner has left in the tank, but after a dismal performance in a similar role in 2011 in Philadelphia in which he rushed for just 136 yards and 0 touchdowns on 42 carries we are not holding our breath. While he may not be a bad late-round handcuff for Mathews’ owners on draft day, other owners can find more upside to build their bench elsewhere.

SLEEPER
With so much attention being given to Rob Gronkowski and Jimmy Graham heading into the 2012 fantasy season, Antonio Gates is flying under the radar at the tight end position. Injuries have cost Gates nine games over the past two seasons and durability will remain a concern for the 32-year old tight end. However, with the team lacking a true No. 1 wide receiver many expect Gates to be Rivers’ top target in the passing game. If he can stay healthy Gates will produce elite numbers and is likely to be available 2-3 rounds later than some of the hot names at the position.

NEW ADDITIONS
After watching wideout Vincent Jackson depart to Tampa Bay via free agency, the Chargers signed free agents Robert Meachem and Eddie Royal to help build up its receiving corps. Meachem has made 20 trips to the end zone over the past three years, but has never more than 45 receptions of 722 yards in a single season playing in a Saints’ offense that spread the ball around. Royal has never been able to follow up his 2008 rookie numbers when he caught 91 balls for 980 yards and 5 TD’s, but could have late draft value in PPR formats as the Chargers’ new slot receiver.

POSITION BATTLE
It will be interesting to watch who emerges as the Chargers No. 1 wide receiver heading into the season, Meachem or Malcom Floyd. Meachem is definitely the better deep threat, averaging an impressive 16.1 yards per reception for his career. Floyd benefits from his familiarity with the offense and having played his entire career with Rivers throwing him the ball. After missing nine games the previous two seasons though Floyd will need to show he can stay healthy. Both wideouts have fantasy appeal, but neither should be viewed as anything more than a WR3 or WR4 by fantasy owners.

BENCH BUILDER
Despite showing some flashes as a rookie, Vincent Brown appears to be buried on the Chargers’ depth chart heading into 2012. He finished with 19 catches for 329 yards and a pair of touchdowns last season and should see plenty more targets in 2012. However, barring injury his snaps are going to be modest at best. He’s worth a late-round stab in yearly formats and carries a bit more value in dynasty leagues.

Fantasy Football, NFL 2012 nfl preview, san diego chargers, phillip rivers, ryan mathews, ronnie brown, robert meachem, eddie royal, malcom floyd, vincent brown

All right it’s Tuesday and that means it time to hit the waiver wire. Here’s guys you should look at listed in the order I like them position-by-position.

PICKUP OF THE WEEK
QB Carson Palmer (OAK) - Temper you expectations a bit, but owners desperate at quarterback should make a claim for the former Bengal, who has the potential to be a high-end QB2 down the stretch.

QB
Christian Ponder (MIN) - The Ponder Era officially begins as McNabb is benched
John Beck (WAS) - After Grossman's four INT's the door is opening for Beck in WAS
Matt Cassel (KC) - Not crazy about him, but he's not a bad bye-week filler

RB
DeMarco Murray (DAL) - In line to carry load with Felix Jones out 2-4 weeks
Ronnie Brown (DET) - Trade to Detroit and Best concussion makes his value go up
Montario Hardesty (CLE) - If Hillis continue to fall out of favor his carries will increase
Donald Brown (IND) - Worth a stash in deep leagues after showing signs of life vs CIN
C.J. Spiller (BUF) - New role as receiver makes him worth look in PPR formats

WR
Greg Little (CLE) - Has emerged as top option in Browns' passing attack as expected
Danario Alexander (STL) - Revamped Rams' WR corps has him as team's WR2
Arrelious Benn (TB) - Making more plays than Mike Williams to this point of season
Doug Baldwin (SEA) - A sleeper who's lost in Seattle offense; has some value
Demaryius Thomas (DEN) - Not expecting much, but he's finally healthy and ready to play

TE
Fred Davis (WAS) - Chris Cooley out for a while. Davis is a top 10 fantasy TE
Jake Ballard (NYG) - Role continues to expand in Giants passing game.

Fantasy Football fantasy advice, waiver wire, carson palmer, christian ponder, demarco murray, ronnie brown, greg little

Fantasy Sports Girl Andrea has the Miami Dolphins camp preview...

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The annual GSI Mock Draft is rolling right along. Don't miss our takes and explanations and offer your take too...

RECAPS: Round One | Round Two | Round Three

   

ROUND FOUR
37. BROERING - QB D. McNabb (PHI)
38. SIMON - WR B. Marshall (DEN)
39. DINSMORE - RB R. Brown (MIA)
40. BRYANT - WR W. Welker (NE)
41. WETZEL - QB A. Rodgers (GB)
42. SCHMITT - RB C. Benson (CIN)
43. SIMS - TE J. Witten (DAL)
44. MURDICO - WR R. Williams (DAL)
45. ANSELMO - RB K. Smith (DET)
46. CLASGENS - RB R. Bush (NO)
47. FISCHER - RB J. Stewart (CAR)
48. HUMBERT - QB P. Rivers (SD)

POSITION BREAKDOWN: RB (5), QB (3), WR (3), TE (1)

MY PICK: Like many others in the league, the time to get my RB2 came in Round 4. This league is not a PPR league, so Reggie Bush loses some of his luster. However, he is still a nice grab with the 46th overall pick and a steady RB2 option with upside. Injuries have been a problem, but he's worth the risk here. One look at his numbers through the first seven games (two rushing TD's, three receiving TD's, and 660 total yards) last season though so his potential to be a solid starting option.

BEST VALUE PICK: Aaron Rodgers will be valued much higher this season than last and rightfully so after he had 10 multiple-touchdown games in '08. I don't put him in the same ballpark as the top three quarterbacks, but he definitely is nice value 18 picks after Tom Brady went and 19 picks following Peyton Manning.

MOST LIKELY TO DISAPPOINT: Count me as somebody that is not buying into the Roy Williams being an automatic replacement for Terrell Owens in Dallas. Of the three receivers selected within this round, he by far has the best chance to be a bust. He had problems adjusting mid-season in Dallas and suffered a foot injury down the stretch. The potential is there, but at this point I can find somebody that had more than seven touchdown catches over the past two years.

FINAL TAKE: This round was predictable. We saw our first tight end go off the board in Jason Witten (nice pick), five teams go with RB2 and a few quarterbacks and wideouts. In general, waiting on quarterback didn't prove too badly for the three owners that took signal callers here.

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Here's some notes on the Pro Bowl selections (from Rotoworld.com):

--The Jets led all teams with seven players (Brett Favre, Thomas Jones, Alan Faneca, Nick Mangold, Leon Washington, Kris Jenkins, Darrelle Revis). Favre makes it despite -- brace yourselves now -- leading the league with 17 picks.

--Giants' Kicker John Carney (44) is the oldest Pro Bowler ever.

--After sending eight players last year, only two New England Patriots made it (first-timers Wes Welker and Stephen Gostkowski).

--Tennessee's Chris Johnson was the only rookie selection.

--You may think Joey Porter is a mouthy knucklehead, but he and his AFC-leading 17.5 sacks deserved a spot, while Dolphins teammate…

--...Ronnie Brown simply didn't. 10 TDs (4 in that fluky 'Wildcat-gone-wild!' game) were nice, but he has only three 100-plus-yard games and only one other game topping even 70 yards. Steve Slaton, Marshawn Lynch and even LaDainian Tomlinson deserved it more.

--The Bengals, Jags, Rams and Lions had zero reps. Shocker.

--Notable snubs: Atlanta's John Abraham (3rd in sacks with 15), Philip Rivers (#1 in passer rating/tied for #1 with 28 TDs, and Cutler goes?), Matt Ryan (Eli?), DeAngelo Williams (1,229 yards/14 TDs and they choose Portis?), Calvin Johnson, Brandon Jacobs, Chad Pennington (The Matt Ryan of the AFC…c'mon, Favre?). And Dallas Clark should have edged Antonio Gates.

COMPLETE PRO BOWL ROSTERS

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Here is our Line-Up Locks for Week 14. It's either the last week of your regular season or you've made the playoffs. Making the playoffs is always good, but now, more than ever, is where you have to make the right choices, and unfortunately some of your fantasy stalwarts, maybe even the players who brought you this far cannot be counted on this week. Here's a quick look at those who has favorable matchups (LOCK IN) and those who deserve a spot on your bench this week (LOCK OUT):

QUARTERBACKS
Lock In:
--Matt Cassel @ Sea
My take: Perhaps you saw what Romo did to this awful Seahawk defense last week. Cassel has proven he can produce top tier numbers and this will be one of those weeks.

--Aaron Rodgers vs. Hou
My take: Rodgers, like Cassel is one of those guys who is best to start when the match up is right. Well, the match up is right this week.

--Tyler Thigpen @ Den
My take: Let the amateurs in your league laugh at you when you bench your regular for Thigpen in the playoffs. You'll be laughing last as this match up is too good to pass up for Thigpen.

Lock Out:
--Jake Delhomme vs. TB
My take: Here's some fantasy math for you. Bad match up + inconsistent QB=playoff loss.

--Tony Romo @ Pit
My take: Do you have the guts to bench your fantasy stud in the playoffs? If you have a better QB with a better match up, then you should.

--Matt Schaub @ GB
My take: Don't rush to get Schaub back in your lineup. Wait and see how he does and wait until the match up is better.


RUNNING BACKS
Lock In:
--Joseph Addai vs Cin
My take: I'm not sure the Bengals have enough healthy d-linemen to even field a team at this point and I'm not sure that even if they did, that it would matter. Get Addai in your lineup this week.

--Peyton Hillis vs. KC
My take: This guy is quickly becoming the waiver wire find of the year. Play him this week.

--Ronnie Brown @ Buf
My take: As the Dolphins have stumbled a little down the stretch, I think they go back to what got them this far – running the ball and trick plays. Brown will benefit from that.

Fantasy Football matt cassel, aaron rodgers, tyler thigpen, jake delhomme, tony romo, matt schaub, joseph addai, peyton hillis, ronnie brown, clinton portis, marion barber, willie parker, randy moss, greg jennings, roddy white, terrell owens, santana moss, braylon edwards, tony gonzalez, dustin keller, dallas clark, chris cooley, heath miller, john carlson

Here is our Line-Up Locks for Week 13. Three games on turkey day and they could all be turkeys, especially the afternoon games. This means that's there good match ups and good reason to watch football closely on Thanksgiving. Here's a quick look at those who has favorable matchups (LOCK IN) and those who deserve a spot on your bench this week (LOCK OUT):

QUARTERBACKS
Lock In:
--Tony Romo vs. Sea
My take: Romo will likely be munching on one of those freakish 8 leg turkeys Fox serves after the game. Romo will have a fantastic statline against a miserable Seahawk team.

--Brett Favre vs. Den
My take: The Jets are hot and are being led by Favre. Champ Bailey might play, but don't expect that to hinder Favre's numbers who will shred a terrible Bronco defense and connect for at least two TDs.

--Matt Ryan @ SD
My take: This just in, the Chargers cannot stop the pass. The strong Falcon's running game does hurt Ryan's statline, a little, but it also means less blitzing and more open receivers. Ryan will throw two TDs this week.

Lock Out:
--Matt Cassell vs. Pit
My take: Cassell has been an absolute stud the last two weeks. He makes for a tough choice of whether to start him or not, but this week it's such a tough match up that Cassell should take a seat on the bench this week.

--Donovan McNabb vs. Ari
My take: The late night Thanksgiving Day game could be a real turkey for the Eagles quarterback. He was benched last week after yet another terrible performance. He's desperate and angry and has an inept offense, that spells trouble.

--Tyler Thigpen @ Oak
My take: Thigpen has been pleasantly surprising, throwing for multiple TDs in multiple games. However, this week he goes against a very underrated Raider defense.


RUNNING BACKS
Lock In:
--Chris Johnson/Lendale White @ Det
My take: Football on Thanksgiving is a great tradition, but Titans versus the Lions is not good football, unless you own the Titan running backs. Lendale White only touched the ball three times in Sunday's loss, and he complained, look for the Titan TD machine to remedy the situation while Johnson will rack up the yardage.

--Ronnie Brown @ StL
My take: The Dolphins are still stinging from the beatdown the Patriots gave them. They will get well and Ronnie Brown will rack up the stats versus the Rams.

--Michael Turner @ SD
My take: Turner is a fantasy stud and has made the surprising Falcons a dangerous team. In this match up, you cannot sit Turner.

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Let's take a look at what running backs are getting utilized the most in the Red Zone (TwoMinuteWarning.com):

1	Marion Barber III, RB	DAL	192	39.81	28	46.55	9
2	LaDainian Tomlinson, RB	SDC	183	41.31	39	44.64	6
3	Adrian Peterson, RB	MIN	176	36.37	26	43.91	5
4	Jamal Lewis, RB	CLE	145	36.03	30	43.80	14
5	Larry Johnson, RB	KCC	99	23.04	23	42.92	7
6	Frank Gore, RB	SFO	180	39.04	29	41.98	7
7	Ronnie Brown, RB	MIA	114	28.04	26	41.19	11
8	Michael Turner, RB	ATL	150	34.29	28	39.67	8
9	Matt Forte, RB	CHI	181	39.89	22	39.53	6
10	LenDale White, RB	TEN	83	23.66	18	37.93	10
11	Chris Johnson, RB	TEN	124	35.35	17	35.82	2
12	Ryan Grant, RB	GBP	142	33.27	20	35.53	5
13	Marshawn Lynch, RB	BUF	154	37.50	17	35.24	3
14	Steven Jackson, RB	STL	154	39.10	10	34.36	3
15	Clinton Portis, RB	WAS	199	38.14	24	34.10	7

Fantasy Football marion barber, ladainian tomlinson, adrian peterson, jamal lewis, larry johnson, frank gore, ronnie brown, michael turner, matt forte, lendale white, chris johnson, ryan grant, marshawn lynch, steven jackson, clinton portis

Did you miss this week's Fantasy Playbook as I go on with Lance McAlister on 1530 Homer the Sports Animal? Either way here's my notes from the show...

TREND OR MIRAGE
QB Kyle Orton (multiple TD passes in 3 straight) – TREND – The numbers might not stay quite at that right, but Orton has emerged as a starting fantasy option against the right match-ups, including Week 6’s tilt with the Falcons.

RB LaDainian Tomlinson (just one 100-yard game) – MIRAGE – He started slow last year two; in fact, thru 5 games his numbers are actually better this year than they were last season at this point.

RB Ronnie Brown (6 TDs over past 2 contests) – TREND – Before he got hurt last year he was fantasy’s top running back and he’s looking to be back at 100% and primed to make a run for the league-lead in TD’s.

WR Calvin Johnson (6 catches for 56 yards in last 2) – TREND – With Dan Orlovsky likely taking over at QB this week, don’t expect the passing game to wake up for the Lions.

WR Randy Moss (112 yards, TD last week) – MIRAGE – Trade him while he’s hot. Moss is going to be inconsistent all year long as he deals with the growing pains of Matt Cassel.


INJURY REPORT
Brian Westbrook (ribs, ankle) – After watching their running back play through his ankle injury last week, owners had to cringe when they learned of Westbrook’s two fractured ribs he suffered on Sunday. Don’t bet on him playing.

Marques Colston (thumb) and Jeremy Shockey (groin) – Both players could return this week. Colston participated in limited practice on Thursday for the second straight day. Shockey did that on Wednesday, but not on Thursday. Keep your eyes on both.

Jon Kitna (back) – He appears unlikely to play on Sunday at Minnesota as he’s battling back spasms. Dan Orlovsky will likely get the nod in his absence and that is not good news for a struggling Lions’ passing game.


BYE WEEKS
Buffalo, Kansas City, Pittsburgh, Tennessee


VALUE PACK
QB – David Garrard at DEN: He’s starting to show progress after a slow start with 3 TDs and 0 INTs over his past two games, now he gets a Broncos’ D allowing 285 PaYd per game over the past month.

RB – Thomas Jones vs CIN: The Bengals are allowing 4.5 yards per carry and have given up six rushing touchdowns and that makes this Jet ready for take off.

WR – Greg Camarillo at HOU: He’s picked up 14 catches over the past three games and is suddenly looking like Chad Pennington’s favorite target. With a favorable matchup he’s worth a look, particularly in PPR leagues.

TE – Ben Watson at SD: He has been slow to work his way back in the mix from injury and he plays the Chargers, who are allowing the most fantasy points to TE’s by more than double the next closest team.

DEF – REDSKINS vs. STL: Washington has looked so good of late and now they a Rams’ offense that has allowed 13 sacks while only scoring 10.8 points per game through their first four contests.

**CATCH THE SHOW ON 1530HOMER.COM - Click on Thursday's 4:00 hour (4:30 weekly)**

Fantasy Football kyle orton, ladainian tomlinson, ronnie brown, calvin johnson, randy moss, brian westbrook, marques colston, jeremy shockey, jon kitna, david garrard, thomas jones, greg camarillo, ben watson, redskins def

Clinton Portis, RB, Washington - 29 carries, 145 yards, 1 TD
Heading into the game on Sunday Portis did not have a very good history against the Eagles. Well, history did not repeat itself. The Redskins running back led his team to another huge victory on the road. Last week his team won in Dallas and today they did it in Philly. Of course, he was not alone out there. Jason Campbell played mistake-free. Chris Cooley caught eight passes for 109 yards including a touchdown from Antwan Randle El. And the Washington defense held the Eagles to just one touchdown and one field goal.

DeAngelo Williams, RB, Carolina - 20 carries, 123 yards, 2 TD, 1 rec TD
On Sunday Williams cleaned up against what appeared to be more of a practice squad than an NFL team. He was not alone as his rookie teammate Jonathan Stewart had 72 yards on 19 carries against the Chiefs. Steve Smith was also back in form with 96 yards on six catches. And of course the defense gets plenty of credit for shutting out Kansas City - something very rare in the NFL. But it was just Kansas City.

Kyle Orton, QB, Chicago - 24/34, 334 yards, 2 TD
While it could be argued that no one should get a Game Ball when playing against the Lions, those are some pretty good numbers for a pretty average quarterback. What's more impressive is that Orton connected with seven different receivers. Rashied Davis led the team with six catches and 97 yards but Greg Olsen was right behind him with 87. Devin Hester and Matt Forte each caught a touchdown pass and Forte ran for another.

Roddy White, WR, Atlanta - 8 catches, 132 yards, 1 TD
The second-year receiver for the Falcons now has two 100+ yard games this season after posting 90 last week. Not only is he for real, the Falcons are too. Everyone already knows they can run the ball and Michael Turner went for 121 yards against the Packers. And their defense came up with plays when they needed to in Green Bay. Many may still not believe in the Falcons - including me - but the fact is they are now 3 and 2 in shaky division.

Ronnie Brown, RB, Miami - 24 carries, 125 yards, 1 TD
Wouldn't it be nice if Brown were eligible at quarterback? He takes almost as many snaps as Chad Pennington. If fantasy baseball rules were appiled he should be eligible at the position. (This is not the first time I have thought of this. I've had LT in a keeper league for years.) Either way, Brown did not throw a touchdown pass against the Chargers. But he did show that their new 'wildcat' formation was not just a one-game fluke. And it has now been successful against the Patriots and the Chargers. Don't be surprised to see it again next week.

Matt Cassel, QB, New England - 22/32, 259 yards, 1 TD, 2 Int
After an embarrassing loss in their last game to the Dolphins, Cassel had to show some signs that he can hold his own in the NFL. And while he did nopt exactly shine against the 49ers, he played well enough to win the game. He connected with Randy Moss on a deep touchdown pass. And he found Wes Welker eight times for 73 yards. Sure, he is no Tom Brady but at least with Cassel taking the snaps the Patriots season is not lost.


The Game Used Sock Award
Larry Johnson, RB, Kansas City - 7 carries, 2 yards
I'm getting tired of writing about this guy. Seriously, 198 yards one week and 2 the next? TWO? Yes, the Panthers are good and the Chief stinks and it's always easier to play at home than on the road. BUT TWO YARDS?!?! Heck, Nick Goings had 10 yards on the same number of carries for the Panthers. At this point there is no way to predict what LJ is going to do each week. The only thing for sure is that the Chiefs will lose and Johnson goes home with a pair of stinky, rotten, fungi-filled socks!

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