After drafting two teams, having an auction and studying the latest Average Draft Position (ADP) numbers from around the web, I have found five guys going in the first six rounds that you don’t want on your team.

Understand, they could add value if they slip, but you’re better off letting some other owner investing such a high pick in them.

DeAngelo Williams (17th overall – ADP):  Williams has put up some big games over the past two seasons and undoubtedly warranted some heavy fantasy consideration.  My biggest concerns are his durability and the presence of Jonathan Stewart, who could easily prove to be the better fantasy option. Williams is a solid choice, but I find more consistency in Round 2 with my pick.

Ryan Grant (25th overall –ADP):  I can’t put my thumb on it, but Grant just doesn’t excite me. While he plays in a high-powered offense, the Packers’ running back lacks explosiveness. He won’t kill you as a RB2, but if you go with other positions in the first two rounds and count on him as your RB1 you will be disappointed.

Percy Harvin (61st overall – ADP):  Harvin’s stock is on the rise following the injury to Sidney Rice, but his struggles with migraines could become a weekly concern.  I favor a few other of the receivers surrounding him on the GSI Cheat Sheet, including Michael Crabtree, Mike-Sims Walker, and Dwayne Bowe. They are all safer picks.

Brandon Jacobs (78th overall –ADP):  After rating as the fourth highest scoring running back in 2008, Jacobs failed to hit 100 yards and finished with just five TD’s a year ago.  He is seemingly is always banged up, has apparently lost a step and is likely to play second fiddle to Ahmad Bradshaw. He is worth a look outside the top 100 overall, but not this early.

T.J. Houshmandzadeh (94th overall – ADP):  Houshmandzadeh only topped 77 yards twice a year ago and had his lowest TD total since 2003. At 33, he’s not getting any better and with so many questions surrounding the Seahawks’ offense you can find a better option at this point in the draft.

Fantasy Football fantasy advice, deangelo williams, ryan grant, percy harvin, brandon jacobs, tj houshmandzadeh

Okay, Round Three is where things start to get interesting...

RECAPS: Round One | Round Two

ROUND THREE
25. HUMBERT - WR R. White (ATL)
26. FISCHER - WR M. Colston (NO)
27. CLASGENS - WR S. Smith (CAR)
28. ANSELMO - RB P. Thomas (NO)
29. MURDICO - WR D. Bowe (KC)
30. SIMS - RB R. Grant (GB)
31. SCHMITT - QB K. Warner (ARI)
32. WETZEL - WR T. Owens  (BUF)
33. BRYANT - WR T. Houshmandzadeh (SEA)
34. DINSMORE - RB J. Addai (IND)
35. SIMON - RB M. Lynch (BUF)
36. BROERING - WR C. Ochocinco (CIN)

POSITION BREAKDOWN: WR (7), RB (4), QB (1)

MY PICK: After taking a RB and QB, I had no choice but to wideout. I was hoping to grab one of my top 5 wideouts, but I couldn't pass on the Tier 1 quarterback (Peyton Manning) in Round Two. Still, Steve Smith is nice value here. People forget  when they look at his numbers that he missed two games due to a suspension last season. Smith has only played in all 16 games twice in his career, but the durability wrap is misleading. His numbers were down a bit last year as the Panthers ran early and often. They scored 21 rushing touchdowns over the last eight games. Still, Smith averaged over 5 catches per game and broke the 100-yard mark eight times in 14 tries. Carolina is a run first team, but I expect Smith to find the end zone a few more times in '09. Smith is a low-end WR1 with significant upside.

BEST VALUE PICK: If you read this blog regularly you know I already feel strongly about Pierre Thomas' upside. With that in mind, I peg Joseph Addai as my best value pick of the round. After scoring 15 TD's in '07, last season was a bit rough for the Colts' running back. He started strong by scoring four times in the first four games, but missed four games and parts of two others with injuries after that. The guy was a top 5 pick a year ago and plays in one of the league's best offenses. Getting him 34th overall is great value. The team drafted Donald Brown and he will push for time, but perhaps that will have a good impact on Addai and push him to do better (i.e. Jonathan Stewart's affect on DeAngelo Williams).

MOST LIKELY TO DISAPPOINT: Marshawn Lynch at this point is the worst pick of the draft so far. Not only is he losing the first three games (most fantasy leagues only play 13 weeks) due to a suspension, but he was outperformed most of last season by Fred Jackson. Expect Lynch to still be the featured back upon his return, but Jackson and the newly acquired Dominic Rhodes are going to get their crack at carries. I have at least eight RB's still available rated higher than him on my latest Cheat Sheet. Lynch could prove worthy, but he could have drafted a round or two from now most likely.

FINAL TAKE: Round Three is where fantasy championships start to get formed. It's hard to mess up the top two picks, but the decisions made between Rounds 3-7 are the ones that seperate pretenders from contenders. One thing is clear so far though, running back depth is much better than that at wide receiver this season.

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Here are some injuries that fantasy owners will want to keep their eyes on for Week 14:

QUARTERBACKS
Ben Roethlisberger (knee) - no limitations in practice on FRI
Matt Schaub (knee) - probable and expected to start at GB
Matt Hasselbeck (back) - doubtufl; Seneca Wallace likely to start

RUNNING BACKS
Marion Barber (toe) - missed third straight practice; not looking good
Joseph Addai (knee) - added to report on FRI; a game-time decision
Clinton Portis (knee/back) - game-time decision; doesn't play until 8:15
Steven Jackson (quadriceps) - probable; could see increased work
Brian Westbrook (knee, ankle) - expected to start vs. NYG
Marshawn Lynch (back) - ready to face MIA; listed as probable
Ryan Grant (thumb) - should see "normal workload" according to coach
Willis McGahee (illness) - returned to practice FRI
Kevin Smith (shoulder) - limited in practice, but probable vs. MIN
Deuce McAllister (suspension) - will be active, but behind P. Thomas

WIDE RECEIVERS
Anquan Boldin (back) - set to start on SUN vs. STL
Laveranues Coles (thigh) - questionable, yet he should go vs. SF
Derrick Mason (shoulder) - practiced w/out limitations on FRI
Anthony Gonzalez (shoulder) - late addition to injury report
Mark Bradley (calf) - has been ruled out for Week 14
Koren Robinson (knee) - will start vs. NE, but not a great play

TIGHT ENDS
Kellen Winslow (ankle) - ruled out w/high-ankle sprain

DEFENSIVE LINE
Kevin Williams (suspension) - expected to play on SUN vs. DET
Pat Williams (suspension) - expected to play on SUN vs. DET
Gaines Adams (knee) - questionable for MON night vs. CAR
Adewale Ogunleye (shoulder) - status unclear for Week 14
Fred Robbins (shoulder) - Counting on him to return vs. PHI

LINEBACKERS
London Fletcher (foot) - did not practice FRI; questionable
D.J. Williams (groin) - not expected to play vs. KC
Gary Bracket (fibula) - out for Week 14 vs. CIN

DEFENSIVE BACKS
Bob Sanders (knee) - returned to full practice FRI; questionable
Champ Bailey (groin) - not expected to play vs. KC
Cortland Finnegan (hamstring)- expected to play vs. CLE
Nate Clements (thumb) - questionable following minor surgery
Nick Harper (ankle) - returned to limit practice on FRI; should play

LATEST PLAYER NEWS (KFFL.com)

Fantasy Football injury report, ben roethlisberger, matt schaub, matt hasselbeck, marion barber, joseph addai, clinton portis, steven jackson, brian westbrook, marshawn lynch, ryan grant, willis mcgahee, kevin smith, deuce mcallister, anquan boldin, laveranues coles, derrick mason, anthony gonzalez, mark bradley, koren robinson, kellen winslow, kevin williams, pat williams, gaines adams, adewale ogunleye, fred robbins, london fletcher, d.j. williams, gary bracket, bob sanders, champ bailey, cortland finnegan, nate clements, nick harper

Here are some injuries from Sunday to keep your eyes on:

QUARTERBACKS
Derek Anderson, Cleveland Browns - knee - Likely out for the season
Trent Edwards, Buffalo Bills - groin - Status unknown

RUNNING BACKS
Ryan Grant, Green Bay Packers - thumb - Status unknown

WIDE RECEIVERS
Malcom Floyd, San Diego Chargers - shoulder - Status unknown
Wes Welker, New England Patriots - undisclosed - Status unknown

TIGHT ENDS
Kellen Winslow, Cleveland Browns - ankle - Status unknown

OFFENSIVE LINEMEN
Richie Incognito, St. Louis Rams - illness - Status unknown
Justin Smiley, Miami Dolphins - ankle - Undergoing an MRI Monday, Dec. 1

DEFENSIVE LINEMEN
Dusty Dvoracek, Chicago Bears - arm - Status unknown
Jovan Haye, Tampa Bay Buccaneers - knee - Status unknown

LINEBACKERS
Patrick Willis, San Francisco 39ers - hand - Status unknown
Marques Harris, San Diego Chargers - hamstring - Status unknown
Gary Brackett, Indianapolis Colts - leg - Status unknown

DEFENSIVE BACKS
Steve Gregory, San Diego Chargers - stinger - Status unknown
Clinton Hart, San Diego Chargers - stinger - Status unknown

Fantasy Football, NFL injury report, derek anderson, trent edwards, ryan grant, malcom floyd, wes welker, kellen winslow, richie incognito, justin smiley, dusty dvoracek, jovan haye, patrick willis, marques harris, gary brackett, steve gregory, clinton hart

Here is an early edition of Line-Up Locks for Week 10. Remember, there's a game tonight between the Browns and the Broncos, so set your lineups early, if necessary. Here's a quick look at those who have favorable matchups (LOCK IN) and those who deserve a spot on your bench this week (LOCK OUT):
 
QUARTERBACKS
Lock In:
--Phillip Rivers vs. KC
My take: Rivers is quietly one of the most consistent QBs in all of fantasy football. This week he gets a nice match up and could exploit the Chiefs defense for a couple of scores.

--Matt Ryan vs. NO
My take: The NFL's clear-cut favorite to win Rookie of the Year is Matt Ryan, and deservedly so. Ryan has looked like a savvy veteran and will get a chance to show off his skills at home against a bad New Orleans defense. Ryan is a much better QB at home than on the road. This is the week to use him if you have him.

--Jake Delhomme @ Oak
My take: This is usually the time of the year when Delhomme and Steve Smith get hot and that's exactly what's happening. Look for a couple scores from Jake this week, especially because, inexplicably Al Davis cut Deangelo Hall this week, further weakening the Raiders defense.

Lock Out:
--Donovan McNabb vs. NYG
My take: McNabb has put up very nice numbers all year, so why is he on this part of the list? Well, the Giants defense is ferocious and even a scrambler like McNabb will face intense pressure. This will lead to less production and more turnovers from him. He might still be your best QB, but if you have someone like Matt Ryan behind him, then move him to the bench for this week.

--Sage Rosenfels vs. Bal
My take: The waiver wire du jour should not be played this week. I know that the Texans passing game has impressed, but I just think they run better with Scaub under center and will face a Ravens defense that is still very tough.

--Brady Quinn vs. Den
My take: It's very tempting to put Quinn in this week, I know. The match up is ideal (Denver's defense is easy to score on). But, Quinn has had little to no time in practice to work with the first team. Since this is a Thursday game, he's had two days in fact. That's what scares me. Take a wait and see approach with Quinn.


RUNNING BACKS
Lock In:
--Jamaal Charles @ SD
My take: Charles showed who's really in charge in the Chiefs backfield now. With LJ not playing again this week, expect a repeat performance of 100+ yards and a score from Charles this week.

--Maurice Jones-Drew @ Det
My take: MJD was in this same spot last week and disappointed against the Bengals of all teams. I'll chalk that up to a fluke, but if he can't put up good stats versus the Lions, then it's officially time to worry about him.

--Jamal Lewis vs. Den
My take: Get Lewis in your lineup for tonight's game. The Broncos defense is terrible and Romeo Crennel will try to run the ball a lot to take some pressure off Brady Quinn.

Lock Out:
--Stephen Jackson @ NYJ
My take: S-Jax didn't practice yesterday and Coach Haslett said that if Jackson can't practice fully, he won't play this week. Plus, I'm putting Jackson on this list out of spite becaus those of us who own him are probably coming off losses thanks to the egg he laid last week. Until he shows he's healthy, I'm benching him.

--Ryan Grant @ Min
My take: Grant has been a huge disappointment this season. He's yet to produce big, consistent numbers and has a tough match up this week.

--Joseph Addai @ Pit
My take: Addai can also be considered a huge disappointment this year and like Grant, faces a tough match up this week.


WIDE RECEIVERS
Lock In:
--Brandon Marshall @ Cle
My take: The Broncos could really light up the scoreboard tonight and Marshall should see plenty of catches and scoring chances against a very bad Browns secondary.

--Steve Smith @ Oak
My take: As mentioned, this is usually when Smith starts to find his groove and he's coming off a two TD performance last week. No Deangelo Hall on him means plenty of open routes for Smith.

--Marques Colston @ Atl
My take: The Saints miss Reggie Bush. As a result, they have to throw it a lot more and Colston will benefit from what could be a shootout.

Lock Out:
--Desean Jackson vs. NYG
My take: As rookies tend to do, Jackson has faded as the season has worn on. This week will be no exception, keep him out until he shows flashes like he did early in the year.

--Devin Hester vs. Ten
My take: I have never been sold on Hester as a viable fantasy WR (yet). Many seem to still start him. With potentially a new QB under center and going against the NFL's best defense, why would you start him this week?

--Donnie Avery @ NYJ
My take: I go and put this guy in as a lock-in last week saying he's finally convinced me and what does he do but lay an egg? So, I am back to believing that if you can't score versus the Cardinals on your own home turf, then you don't deserve a start this week on the road against the Jets.


TIGHT ENDS
Lock In:
--Antonio Gates vs. KC
My take:  Not that you were going to bench him anyway, but this could be a huge week for Gates.

--Owen Daniels vs. Bal
My take: It's a tough match up, yes, but Daniels has proven that he's an every week starter regardless

--Kellen Winslow vs. Den
My take: Winslow loves the national spotlight and will get some soft coverage to exploit tonight. He allegdly liked the move to Brady Quinn, so let's see if that increases his targets.

Lock Out:
--Kevin Boss @ Phi
My take: This guy is too inconsistent to be counted on as a fantasy starter. This week it's a bad match up, too.

--Tony Scheffler @ Cle
My take: Again, until he proves he's back and can produce numbers for you, don't risk starting him.

--Zach Miller vs. Car
My take: He is in the top 5 of receiving yards for tight ends, but he has only one TD. I would expect no scores and limited yardage this week.


TEAM DEFENSE/ST
Lock In:
--Carolina @ Oak
--Miami vs. Sea
--Jacksonville @ Det

Lock Out:
--San Francisco @ Ariz

--Atlanta vs. NO
--New England vs. Buf

Fantasy Football phillip rivers, matt ryan, jake delhomme, donovan mcnabb, sage rosenfels, brady quinn, jamaal charles, maurice jones-drew, jamal lewis, stephen jackson, ryan grant, joseph addai, brandon marshall, steve smith, marques colston, desean jackson, devin hester, donnie avery, antonio gates, owen daniels, kellen winslow, kevin boss, tony scheffler, zach miller

Let's take a look at what running backs are getting utilized the most in the Red Zone (TwoMinuteWarning.com):

1	Marion Barber III, RB	DAL	192	39.81	28	46.55	9
2	LaDainian Tomlinson, RB	SDC	183	41.31	39	44.64	6
3	Adrian Peterson, RB	MIN	176	36.37	26	43.91	5
4	Jamal Lewis, RB	CLE	145	36.03	30	43.80	14
5	Larry Johnson, RB	KCC	99	23.04	23	42.92	7
6	Frank Gore, RB	SFO	180	39.04	29	41.98	7
7	Ronnie Brown, RB	MIA	114	28.04	26	41.19	11
8	Michael Turner, RB	ATL	150	34.29	28	39.67	8
9	Matt Forte, RB	CHI	181	39.89	22	39.53	6
10	LenDale White, RB	TEN	83	23.66	18	37.93	10
11	Chris Johnson, RB	TEN	124	35.35	17	35.82	2
12	Ryan Grant, RB	GBP	142	33.27	20	35.53	5
13	Marshawn Lynch, RB	BUF	154	37.50	17	35.24	3
14	Steven Jackson, RB	STL	154	39.10	10	34.36	3
15	Clinton Portis, RB	WAS	199	38.14	24	34.10	7

Fantasy Football marion barber, ladainian tomlinson, adrian peterson, jamal lewis, larry johnson, frank gore, ronnie brown, michael turner, matt forte, lendale white, chris johnson, ryan grant, marshawn lynch, steven jackson, clinton portis

Did you miss this week's Fantasy Playbook as I go on with Lance McAlister on 1530 Homer the Sports Animal? Either way here's my notes from the show...

TREND OR MIRAGE
--QB Ben Roethlisberger (4 games w/out 200+ PaYd) – TREND – The Steelers’ offensive line is struggling and that is not giving him the time needed to make big plays. Expect TD passes, but not much yardage.

--QB Matt Schaub (only 4 TD passes in 3 games) – MIRAGE – Three of those came last week. Houston’s offense is just getting going and Schaub has many multi-TD games ahead.

--RB Ryan Grant (43 carries for 94 yards over past 3 games) – TREND – He’s getting close to getting the dud label, if Aaron Rodgers don’t play the wait will be over.

--WR Lance Moore (14 catches in past two games) – MIRAGE – Don’t get me wrong he’s a nice bye-week filler, but long-term there are too many other options in the offense for him to keep up this type of production.

--TE Todd Heap (3 catches for 37 yards on season) – TREND – Scrap Heap! That’s where this guy belongs. With Joe Flacco at the helm, the longtime fantasy commodity has proven to be useless.

INJURY REPORT
Anquan Boldin (sinus) – A devastating hit against the Jets fractured his sinus. It appears unlikely he’ll go this week, but the team will know more by the weekend. If he goes Boldin remains a must-start.

Aaron Rodgers (shoulder) – It is looking like Green Bay will go with Matt Flynn this week and that means a downgrade for all Packers’ fantasy values.

Steelers RB’s – Willie Parker (knee) is expected to return following the team’s Week 6 bye and first-round pick Rashard Mendenhall (shoulder) has been placed on the I.R. and is out for the season. Look for Mewelde Moore to get the bulk of the action for now in Pittsburgh’s backfield.

BYE WEEKS
Cleveland, Oakland, St. Louis, NY Jets

VALUE PACK
--QB Jake Delhomme vs. KC: The Chiefs have only allowed 3 TD passes in 4 games, but don’t let those stats fool you. In many games they were blown out. With Steve Smith back in his flow, the Panthers passing game will be productive on Sunday.

--RB  Earnest Graham at DEN:  Only the Rams have allowed more fantasy points to RB’s than Denver has and that should help Graham owners here.

--WR Bobby Engram at NYG: He will see plenty of Matt Hasselbeck targets right off the bat and that means he’s worth a look for a flex option upon his return this week.

--TE Owen Daniels vs. IND: Two straight games with at least 70 yards and at least three catches in every game is enough to make him a weekly starter.

--DEF Cowboys vs. CIN: The unit has struggled for fantasy owners, but with the struggling Bengals’ offense heading to town and possibly without Carson Palmer, Dallas’ D look appealing in Week 5.

**CATCH THE SHOW ON 1530HOMER.COM - Click on Thursday's 4:00 hour (4:30 weekly)**

Fantasy Football 1530 homer, lance mcalister, fantasy playbook, ben roethlisberger, matt schaub, ryan grant, lance moore, todd heap, anquan boldin, aaron rodgers, willie parker, rashard mendenhall, mewelde moore, browns, raiders, rams, jets, jake delhomme, earnest graham, bobby engram, owen daniels, cowboys def

There are plenty of injuries fantasy owners need to know about, here are the names you need to keep your eyes on leading upto kickoff:

Quarterbacks
Carson Palmer - Will start despite ankle injury

Running Backs
Adrian Peterson - Will come down to game-time decision
LaDainian Tomlinson - Expected to play, but likely limited on MNF
Ryan Grant - Is now listed as probable and should start
Jamal Lewis - Will be a go against the Ravens
Darren McFadden - Considered probable, but is a risk
Laurence Maroney - I would be surprised if he plays
Justin Fargas - Forget about it, will not play in Buffalo
LaMont Jordan - Listed as doubtful and won't be a factor

Wide Receivers
Braylon Edwards - Limited in practice, but expected to start
Laveranues Coles - Set start on MNF at San Diego
Donte' Stallworth - Unlikely to play against Ravens
Reggie Brown - Will likely make his season debut for Eagles
Jerry Porter - Won't play again this week
Sidney Rice - Likely to be inactive.
Justin Gage - Held out of practice all week
Javon Walker - Will be active, but role unclear

Fantasy Football, NFL carson palmer, adrian peterson, ladainian tomlinson, ryan grant, jamal lewis, darren mcfadden, laurence maroney, justin fargas, lamont jordan, braylon edwards, laveranues coles, donte' stallworth, reggie brown, jerry porter, sidney rice, justin gage, javon walker

Let's take a look at some injuries you will want to pay attention leading up to kickoff of Week 2:

Quarterbacks
Ben Roethlisberger - Practiced on Friday and will go at CLE

Running Backs
LaDainian Tomlinson - Should play in great match-up vs. DEN
Ryan Grant - Keep your eyes on this one; a true game-time call
Willis McGahee – Even if he does play, get him out of your lineup
Matt Forte - Battling ankle injury, but likely to go

Wide Receivers
Reggie Brown - Officially listed as questionable; but don't play him
Laveranues Coles - Should get the call against Pats
Jerry Porter - Doesn't offer enough value to risk it
Donte' Stallworth - Doubtful; did not practice all week

Tight Ends
Dallas Clark - Likely to be inactive on Sunday
Dante Rosario - Listed as questionable, but expect him to go
Ben Watson - Making progress, but still can't be counted on

Fantasy Football ben roethlisberger, ladainian tomlinson, ryan grant, willis mcgahee, matt forte, reggie brown, laveranues coles, jerry porter, donte' stallworth, dallas clark, dante rosario, ben watson

I know, many of you are letting this day get you down.  Maybe you missed out on (fill in your week one undrafted star here).

Take heart, because there is still hope.

Now, many of you play in leagues with an all-hardcore owner group.  Many of you do not, and now is the time to take advantage - quietly, I might add - of newer owners who are desperate.

Sure, they got a great pickup on the waiver wire.  But be sure to check out who they might have dropped to get that so-called gem.  I am in four different fantasy leagues (all with 12 teams); here is a summary of who is currently available as free agents or as waiver pickups effective tomorrow:

Willis McGahee

Ryan Grant

Fred Taylor

Chad Johnson

Marques Colston

Laveranues Coles

Ronnie Brown

Jake Delhomme

Bernard Berrian

Felix Jones

Jamal Lewis

Joey Galloway

Chester Taylor

I know that some people on that list have valid arguments for dropping them as well as for keeping them, but some of them should by no means be dropped.  Four of those are starting running backs on their respective teams; a couple of others are getting enough playing time to be viable from a fantasy perspective.

So, maybe you didn't get your Dante Rosario waiver request processed, but there's gold to be found...one man's trash is another man's treasure, right?

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