Undervalued – C Yasmani Grandal: Being suspended for the first 50 games of the season for violating the league’s performance-enhancing drug policies, the Padres’ young backstop is falling of off many owners’ fantasy radar. A look at his 2012 numbers however, suggests that shouldn’t be the case. Grandal hit .297/.394/.469 with eight homeruns through 60 big-league games during his first season in San Diego. The most impressive number could’ve have been the 13.7-percent walk rate the 23-year old boasted.

Overvalued – 3B Chase Headley: The breakout campaign Headley turned out in 2012 was one of fantasy baseball’s biggest surprises, but was it a trend or a mirage? Investing too heavily for one season of elite fantasy production could come back to bite owners later. Consider in his three previous seasons in the Majors Headley slugged .392, .375, and .399 with a grand sum of 27 homers in 430 games. They’ve moved the fences in at Petco this offseason and that should help him build off last year’s performance. He’s a nice player for your fantasy roster, just don’t overpay.

Sleeper – SP Cory Luebke: Like Grandal, Luebke, who’s recovering from Tommy John surgery, is expected to miss the first couple months of the season. He posted a 3.31 ERA, 1.09 WHIP and struck out 111 batters in 100.2 innings in 2011 and followed it up with a 3-1 mark with a 2.61 ERA and 1.16 WHIP before suffering the torn ligament in his elbow a year ago. He’s worth a DL stash in larger mixed leagues and certainly in NL-only formats that could provide a nice second-half spark pitching in the friendly confines of Petco Park.

Bust – SP Clayton Richard: After winning 14 games with a 3.99 ERA a year ago, there’s no doubt Richard is catching the eyes of many owners preparing for their fantasy drafts and auctions. However, there are reasons for concern. For starters his 4.4 K/9 rate is subpar and the numbers on the road (4.74 ERA) were alarming. It’s hard to believe that he gave up a league-high 31 homers when he pitched half of his games at Petco Park. Richard will be hard-pressed to come close to matching last year’s numbers.

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The Cincinnati Reds will wrap up the first half of their season with an 11-day, 11-game road trip to California to take on the Giants, Dodgers and Padres. They entered the stretch of games with a 41-33 mark and holding a two-game lead over the Cardinals and Pirates for first-place inside the NL Central. However, the trip west has never been friendly for the Reds.

History has not been kind to the Reds, even back in the days when these teams were division foes in the NL West. Even during the time of the Big Red Machine. Since the Giants and Dodgers arrived in the late 1950’s and the Padres were born in 1969 California has been where good Reds’ teams go to die.  Overall the Reds are 515-566 against those three teams in their home parks, equaling a dismal .476 winning percentage.

Hall of Fame beat writer Hal McCoy said it best during a recent post for FoxSportsOhio.com, “For the Reds, trips to the west coast have been like booking passage on the Hindenburg, even if they knew what awaited at the end of the trip.”

I remember very well the 2-9 road trip in 2006 that literally took the Reds out of the race.  The team started the mid-August swing one-game back in the NL Central with a 66-61 mark. They won the opening game vs. the Giants to pull into a first-place tie with the Cardinals, but dropped nine of 10 games to drop to six games back and never recovered.

Last season the Reds only played three games at each stadium going an uncharacteristic 6-3 in these games, but were not able to parlay the success into meaningful movement in the standings.

During the team’s division-winning 2010 campaign they had two West Coast trips. They went 3-3 in a rare Interleague swing to Seattle and Oakland, which I attended four games of.  In their more traditional trip west versus NL opponents they pulled off a 6-3 mark during visits to Arizona, San Francisco, and Los Angeles.

How will this trip define the team’s 2012 season?  It remains to be seen, but heading into the All-Star break on a good streak is always a successful playoff formula. If the Reds can accomplish that feat while also clearing one of the traditionally biggest hurdles it would be huge!

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PICKUP OF THE WEEK
OF Ryan Ludwick (SD) – His .241 average might fool some, but over the past couple of weeks few hitters have delivered as well for owners than Ludwick. During his current 10-game hitting streak (rested on Sunday) the Padres’ right fielder has gone 17-for-39 (.436) with 4 HR and 14 RBI. Known as a streaky hitter owners may want to ride him while he’s hot.

MOST ADDED
1. Ryan Ludwick (SD), RF – up +56.2% - still available in 41.3% of leagues
2. Michael Brantley (CLE), CF – up 50.8% - still available in 22.3% of leagues
3. Todd Helton (COL), 1B – up 37.2% - still available in 32.9% of leagues
4. Fernando Salas (STL), RP – up 35% - still available in 31.4% of leagues
5. Homer Bailey (CIN), SP – up 34.4% - still available in 22.3% of leagues

MOST DROPPED
1. Vicente Padilla (LAD), SP – dropped in 45.4% of leagues
2. Brandon Beachy (ATL), SP – dropped in 34.9% of leagues
3. Mike Aviles (KC), 2B – dropped in 32.2% of leagues
4. Brennan Boesch (DET), RF – dropped in 28.1% of leagues
5. Bud Norris (HOU), SP – dropped in 24.7% of leagues

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2010 Rewind: 90-72, 2nd Place in NL West. This time a year ago the only news anyone thought the Padres would make in 2010 was going to be where and when they trade their stud first baseman Adrian Gonzalez. But the team got off to a hot start and maintained their lead in division for most of the summer. They held on to Gonzalez and made a run for the playoffs only to come up short on the last day of the season.

The Good: While Gonzalez provided the majority of offense for the Padres, it was pitching that reigned supreme in spacious Petco Park. Clayton Richard, Jon Garland and Mat Latos each won 14 games in 2010. Latos led the starters with a 2.92 ERA and 189 strikeouts. The bullpen was just as good as the starters thanks to the dominance of closer Heath Bell. The two-time All-Star saved 47 games last season while posting a 1.93 ERA. He blew just three saves and his last won was on May 26.

The Bad: Not much can be worse than being in first place for most of the season, struggling in September and missing the playoffs on the last day of the year. But it there is some fuel to be added to the fire it is that they could have gotten a lot more had they traded Gonzalez in July. Their playoff run may have ended much sooner without him, but the organization would have been better prepared for the future.

Biggest Loss: Obviously the Padres can’t replace Gonzalez and they are not trying to do so. But the team also lost a slew of regulars from last year’s squad. The list includes Garland, Kevin Correia, David Eckstein, Jerry Hairston Jr., Yorvit Torrealba and Matt Stairs. While none of those guys are crucial parts to winning a pennant, the chemistry the Padres formed as a team in 2010 will likely be gone.

Best Addition: The Padres look to improve the middle of their defense with the additions of Orlando Hudson at second base, Jason Bartlett at shortstop and Cameron Maybin in centerfield. They hope Brad Hawpe will provide some power while covering first base. On the mound veteran Aaron Harang hopes to revive his career going from a hitter’s park to one the appeals to pitchers.

Fantasy Slant: San Diego provides little offensive help to a fantasy squad. Third baseman Chase Headley and outfielder Will Veneable have some upside but are only worth a late round pick in a fantasy draft. The pitching is a different story thanks to the big ballpark. Heath Bell is clearly one of the top closers in the game and should drafted as such. Richard and Latos may struggle to get 14 wins without run support, but they should otherwise finish with solid numbers.

Final Take: It is going to be very difficult for the Padres to win 90 games again in 2011. They lost their best player along with numerous other contributors and play in a division that has three teams that certainly look better on paper. While anything is possible expectations should not be too high in San Diego…2011 Record: 80-82, fourth place in the NL West.

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The National League Manager of the Year was announced on Wednesday by the Baseball Writers Association and Padres’ manager Bud Black just edged out Reds’ skipper Dusty Baker in the voting.

Black finished one point ahead of the Baker. Black received 16 first-place votes, seven seconds and three thirds for 104 points. Baker garnered 13 first-place votes, 12 seconds and two thirds for 103 points.

The Giants' Bruce Bochy, the Braves' Bobby Cox and the Phillies' Charlie Manuel, the 3-4-5 finishers, each received a first-place vote.

Baker led the Reds to a 91-71 season en route to the N.L. Central title and the team’s first playoff appearance since 1995. Most experts pegged the Reds to finish in the bottom couple of spots inside the division, but they managed to win it by five games. Baker won the award in 1990, 1997 and 2000.

Black, who played for Baker when he managed the Giants, led the Padres to a second-place finish in the N.L. West. His 15-game turnaround was two better than Baker’s, but Cincinnati made the playoffs and won one more game.  Throw in the Padres blowing a 6.5 game lead, including a 10-game losing streak, starting in late August and did not make the playoffs and it starts looking like the wrong manager won the award.

Minnesota's Ron Gardenhire was voted AL Manager of the Year, placing ahead of Texas' Ron Washington and Tampa Bay's Joe Maddon.

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Few players in baseball have gotten off to the start of Padres’ third basemen Chase Headley. He is batting .448 after going 2-for-4 Monday. He has hit safely in all seven games this season, and he has five multi-hit games.

The highly touted prospect has not lived up to the hype to this point of his career, but this season’s fast start is leaving hope that he may finally be turning the corner.

The Padres allowed fellow hot corner Kevin Kouzmanoff to walk this off-season, allowing Headley to return to his natural position after playing left field most of last year.

If he’s going to put together a complete season he’ll need to find out a way to be a bit more productive at home though. He hit nearly 100 points lower (.208) at the spacious PETCO Park than he did on the road (.305) last year.

Headley is still only owned in 61 percent of the leagues played at CBSSports.com, but that number is growing daily. He’s worth a pickup in deeper mixed leagues immediately.

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