Super Bowl Betting Trends

1. February 2013  - Published by Dan Clasgens

If you are thinking about betting the Super Bowl this year here are some things you may want to consider…

DAYS OF THE DOGS

The favorite is 33-13 straight-up and 26-18-2 against the spread in Super Bowl history. However, the underdog is 8-3 ATS the last 11 Super Bowls, including a current 4-1 ATS run.

NFC REIGNS
The NFC is 18-8-2 ATS in the last 28 Super Bowls, including 8-2 ATS in the last 10 and 5-0 ATS in the last five.

WINNING WAYS
The winner has failed to cover the spread just six times in 46 years. However, it’s happened three times since 2004.

PLAYING UP
The Ravens are 4-0 against the spread in their last four playoff games and 4-1 ATS in their last five games versus a team with a winning record. Meanwhile, the 49ers are 5-1 against the number versus a team with a winning record. Clearly both teams enter this contest on a hot streak.

UNDER BALTIMORE
The under is 4-0 in the Ravens' last four games on field turf, 4-1 in their last five games overall, and 4-1 in their last five playoff games. The under is also 4-1 in Baltimore's last five games versus a team with a winning record.

OFF OF THE GRASS

Artificial surfaces usually favor higher-scoring games, but in the Super Bowl’s case over the years they have also led to some inflated totals. In fact, 12 of the 18 Super Bowl games on artificial turf have played under the total.

OVER SAN FRANSCISCO

The over is 6-0 in the 49ers' last six games overall, 5-0 in their last five games versus a team with a winning record and 5-1 in their last six games following an ATS win. The over is also 4-0 in San Francisco's last four games following a straight up win and 5-0 in its last five games versus a team with a winning record.

COIN TOSS

Until the Patriots won the toss last season, the NFC had won the coin toss in 14 consecutive Super Bowls. Amazingly in over the span of 46 Super Bowls the Heads/Tails has been split right down the middle though, 23 times each.

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5 Reasons Ravens Can Win

31. January 2013  - Published by Dan Clasgens

Though my final pick is yet to come here are the biggest factors working in the Ravens’ favor heading into Super Bowl XLVII:

1. Ray Lewis
– Enough has already been written about this man and regardless of your opinion of him you can’t argue there isn’t a player in the NFL that more teammates would rally around. Despite the deer antler controversies of the week, Lewis will play on Sunday and be ready to deliver in his curtain call.

2. Joe Flacco – Playing for a free-agent contract this offseason, Flacco’s stock is rising.  He is connecting on his deep ball and has tallied 853 passing yards, eight touchdowns and no interceptions in three playoff wins. He’s is sync right now with his passing targets – Anquan Boldin, Torrey Smith and Dennis Pitta.

3. Ray Rice – The 49ers’ defense has stifled opposing running backs all season and Rice has struggled a bit down the stretch. With Bernard Pierce helping to shoulder the load and the extra week of rest look for him to have fresh legs here. After nearly going nearly a month without a touchdown the veteran has scored in back-to-back games and will be ready to step up in the spotlight.

4. Playoff Path
– The playoff journey of the Ravens has been more impressive than their NFC counterparts. Not only did they take care of the Colts in Baltimore, but the Ravens went on the road and beat the top-seeded Broncos and Peyton Manning and followed it up by shutting down the Patriots’ vaunted offense in Foxboro. San Francisco beat and overrated Packers team at their place and played two quarters of good football to survive against an unimpressive Falcons’ squad.

5. Underdogs Rule
– It’s worked for me the past decade plus, but the underdogs have been the victors more often than not since the turn of the century. They have won three of the past five title games outright and have posted an 8-3 ATS mark in the past 11 Super Bowls. The Ravens are getting four points in Sunday’s matchup.

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5 Reasons 49ers Can Win

31. January 2013  - Published by Dan Clasgens

Though my final pick is yet to come here are the biggest factors working in the 49ers’ favor heading into Super Bowl XLVII:

1. Colin Kaepernick
– Jim Harbaugh showed a ton of courage replacing Alex Smith with the young quarterback and Kaepernick has delivered, especially in the playoffs. His presence has meant big things for Michael Crabtree and added wrinkles to the 49ers’ offense that is tough to prepare against.

2. Defense – The Ravens’ defense might have all the big names, but the 49ers’ D is younger and more talented. The unit boasts six Pro Bowlers and has been in the top 10 all season in nearly every statistical category.

3. The Pistol
– It’s the talk of the league right now and the 49er’s use of the Pistol offense has increased during the playoffs. They ran it 33 times versus the Packers and a ton in the red zone (2 of 4 TD’s) against Atlanta.

4. Offensive line – San Francisco has perhaps the league’s best offensive lines and should favor well in their matchup against the Ravens’ front seven, especially in the running game where Baltimore has struggled.

5. Health – Justin Smith is going to need off-season shoulder surgery re-attach his triceps tendon, but he’s getting much more comfortable playing through it. The extra week of rest did both him and linebacker Aldon Smith well. The latter Smith has been dealing with a shoulder injury and has failed to record a sack in three straight contests, but he finished with 19.5 sacks on the season.

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Crazy Super Bowl Prop Bets

30. January 2013  - Published by Dan Clasgens

Every year the sportsbooks release a myriad of prop bets in an attempt to lure the casual gamblers to betting on the Super Bowl. This year is no different. While I will list a few prop bets I like later in the week when I post my official pick for the game, I wanted to look at some of the off-the-wall props out there for this year’s edition:

What will be higher?

LeBron James Points Feb 3rd vs Toronto Raptors  
San Francisco 49ers Total Points Scored Super Bowl XLVII    

What will be higher?
Sidney Crosby Shots on Goal Feb 3rd vs Montreal
Torrey Smith Receptions Super Bowl XLVII    Pick (-115)   

What will be higher?
Peyton Siva Assists Feb 3rd vs Marquette
Michael Crabtree Receptions Super Bowl XLVII

How long will it take Alicia Keys to sing the US National Anthem?
Over 2 minutes 15 seconds           
Under 2 minutes 15 seconds       

How long will the post game handshake/hug last between Jim & John Harbaugh?

Over 6.5 seconds         -120   
Under 6.5 seconds         -120

What will be the highest tweet per second during the Super Bowl?
Over 15000           
Under 15000       
Kickoff to final whistle.

What Color will the Gatorade (or liquid) be that is dumped on the Head Coach of the Winning Super Bowl Team?
Orange         5/2
Yellow         5/2
Green         13/2
Red         13/2
Blue         13/2
Clear/Water    7/4

Will Beyonce's hair be Curly/Crimped OR Straight at the beginning of the Super Bowl Halftime show?
Straight         -140
Curly/Crimped         EVEN

Will either Jack or Jackie Harbaugh be shown on TV wearing any clothing that has either a SF or BAL logo on it during the game?
Yes         +200
No         -300

What will happen with the Dow Jones the day after the Super Bowl?

Market Up         -130
Market Down    -110

MORE PROP BETS (VegasInsider.com

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Greatest Super Bowls Ever

22. January 2013  - Published by GetSports Desk

from the GetSportsInfo.com archives...

10) New York Jets 16, Baltimore Colts, 7
January 12, 1969
Orange Bowl, Miami FL

It was the Super Bowl that started all the hype as Joe Namath guaranteed victory just days before the game. The Jets star backed his words with an MVP performance but it was the New York defense that secured the victory by intercepting the Colts three times. The game actually was not very close but the guarantee combined with the image of Namath running off the field holding up ‘number one’ has helped to make the Super Bowl what it is today.

9) San Francisco 49ers 26, Cincinnati Bengals 21
January 24, 1982
Pontiac Silverdome, Pontiac MI

After putting up a 20 to 0 halftime lead the 49ers held their breath as the Bengals scored 21 second half points. Quarterback Kenny Anderson was 25 of 34 with two passing touchdowns and one rushing touchdown. But it wasn’t enough as the 49ers Ray Wersching completed four field goals in the 49ers first Super Bowl win. The game marked the first time in Super Bowl history that the losing team out gained the winners in yardage (356 to 275.)

8) Baltimore Colts 16, Dallas Cowboys 13
January 17, 1971
Orange Bowl, Miami FL

The first Super Bowl played on artificial turf turned out to be quite a defensive battle. The Colts only touchdown came off of a pass that deflected off of two players including the Cowboys’ Mike Renfro. Two interceptions by the Colts led to the touchdown and the game winning field goal with only 5 seconds remaining. Chuck Howley of the Cowboys was named MVP, the first for a defensive player and the only time the award was given to a player from the losing team.

7) Pittsburgh Steelers 35, Dallas Cowboys 31
January 21, 1979
Orange Bowl, Miami FL

Quarterback Terry Bradshaw threw his fourth touchdown pass with just under 7 minutes remaining in the game. The 18-yard catch by Lynn Swan put the Steelers up 35 to 17. But the Cowboys would not give up easily. Roger Staubach led his team to two quick touchdowns thanks in large part to an onside kick. But a second attempt of an onside kick was recovered by the Steelers’ Rocky Bleier and Pittsburgh became the first team to win three Super Bowls.

6) New England Patriots 20, St. Louis Rams 17
February 3, 2002
Louisiana Superdome, New Orleans LA

The Rams out gained the Patriots by 160 yards, but the New England Defense forced three turnovers which the offense turned into 17 points. The final 3 points came at the end of the game. With 1:30 on the clock and no timeouts, Tom Brady drove his team into field goal range, setting up a 48-yard kick for Adam Vinatieiri. It was the first time in Super Bowl history that the game was decided on the last play.

5) San Francisco 49ers 20, Cincinnati Bengals 16
January 22, 1989
Joe Robbie Stadium, Miami FL

Playing for their third Super Bowl victory in eight years the 49ers found themselves losing 16 to 13 with just 3:20 remaining in the game. That was plenty of time for Joe Montana and company. The two-time Super Bowl MVP drove his team 92 yards capping off the drive with a touchdown pass to John Taylor with 34 seconds left on the clock.

4) New England Patriots 32, Carolina Panthers 29
February 1, 2004
Reliant Stadium, Houston TX

This game set two Super Bowl records that seem contradictory. The two teams took the longest amount of time before a score, nearly 27 minutes, and then combined for the most points scored in one quarter, 37 in the fourth. Carolina tied the game with 1:08 remaining but it wasn’t enough as the Patriots quickly drove the ball into field goal territory. Adam Vinatieri kicked the game winner from 41 yards out.

3) St. Louis Rams 23, Tennessee Titans 16

January 30, 2000
Georgia Dome, Atlanta GA

While the high-powered Rams offense dominated the statistics they found themselves tied at 16 points at the two-minute warning. But on the next play Kurt Warner hooked up with Isaac Bruce for a 73-yard touchdown pass. Steve McNair did his best to lead his team downfield but the game ended when an outstretched Kevin Dyson landed just one yard short of a game-tying touchdown.

2) New York Giants 20, Buffalo Bills 19
January 21, 1991
Tampa Stadium, Tampa FL

With the country at war in the Persian Gulf and following a breathtaking rendition of the National Anthem by Whitney Houston, the two teams in their red, white and blue uniforms competed in one of the best games in the history of football. The Giants perfected the concept of ‘ball control’, possessing the ball for over 40 minutes. But the Bills had the lead late in the fourth quarter before a Matt Bahr field goal made it 20 to 19. Then, with just seconds remaining, Scott Norwood’s 47-yard field goal just missed to the right and the Giants won their second title.

1) New York Giants 17, New England Patriots 14
February 4, 2008
University of Phoenix Stadium, Scottsdale, AZ
David Tyree’s miraculous 32-yard reception setup Eli Manning’s game-winning TD strike to Plaxico Burress to seal the deal for the Giants. The Patriots were denied the shot at being the first team ever to finish 19-0 and their Super Bowl loss forever tarnished their perfect regular season, the first of its kind since the Miami Dolphins finished with undefeated in 1972.

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VOTE: Top Super Bowl

22. January 2013  - Published by Dan Clasgens

In recent years we've been treated to some great Super Bowls, which one sticks out the most?

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Super Bowl Betting Trends

3. February 2012  - Published by Dan Clasgens

from VegasInsider.com...

HISTORY NOT ON PATS SIDE
With the exception of the upset of St. Louis in Super Bowl XXXVI, New England is 1-4 ATS in its five Super Bowl appearances in franchise history.

OVER/UNDER
From a totals perspective, the 'under' has cashed in five of the previous seven Super Bowls, even though last year's game finished 'over' the total between the Packers and Steelers. However, with the total set at 54 for the Giants and Patriots, the 'under' has hit more often than not in Super Bowls listed at 50 or above in the totals department. Since 1990, five of seven games that closed with a total of more than 50 cashed the 'under,' including Super Bowl XLII between New York and New England (55 total, 17-14 final).

WINNERS USUALLY COVER
Picking the winner and not worrying about the points has helped bettors in the last 11 Super Bowls, with the victorious team covering the spread eight times in this stretch. The only two clubs to win the game and not cash were the Patriots (vs. Panthers and Eagles) and Steelers (vs. Cardinals) since 2001.

AFC EAST WOES
Even though the game has changed since the first Super Bowl in 1967, one number has stayed consistent regarding AFC East teams against the spread. Since the merger in 1970, AFC East clubs own a dreadful 4-11-1 ATS mark in Super Bowls.

NOT AS CLOSE AS IT APPEARS TO BE
The short line doesn't necessarily mean a close game, as seven of the last nine Super Bowls (since 1975) with a closing line between 2 and 3 ½ have resulted in a double-digit victory by the winner.

PARLAY COMBOS
Favorites have cashed in 16 of the last 22 Super Bowls, while the favorite/'over' combination has come in 10 times since 1990. The least frequent combination in this span is the underdog/'over' combo, which only hit in XXXII (Packers over the Broncos) and XXXVII (Buccaneers over the Raiders).

COMPLETE ARTILCE

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Super Bowl XLVI Odds

8. February 2011  - Published by Dan Clasgens

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****

Super Bowl XLV just ended, but the odds are already out for Super Bowl XLVI:

Team 2012 Super Bowl XLVI Futures Odds
Money Odds (Payout Per $100 Bet.)
Arizona Cardinals +$10,000 (100 to 1)
Atlanta Falcons +$1,500 (15 to 1)
Baltimore Ravens +$1,200 (12 to 1)
Buffalo Bills +$20,000 (200 to 1)
Carolina Panthers +$30,000 (300 to 1)
Chicago Bears +$1,800 (18 to 1)
Cincinnati Bengals +$6,000 (60 to 1)
Cleveland Browns +$6,000 (60 to 1)
Dallas Cowboys +$1,800 (18 to 1)
Denver Broncos +$6,000 (60 to 1)
Detroit Lions +$5,000 (50 to 1)
Green Bay Packers +$600 (6 to 1)
Houston Texans +$3,500 (35 to 1)
Indianapolis Colts +$1,800 (18 to 1)
Jacksonville Jaguars +$6,000 (60 to 1)
Kansas City Chiefs +$3,000 (30 to 1)
Miami Dolphins +$4,000 (40 to 1)
Minnesota Vikings +$4,000 (40 to 1)
New England Patriots +$500 (5 to 1)
New Orleans Saints +$1,500 (15 to 1)
New York Giants +$1,500 (15 to 1)
New York Jets +$1,200 (12 to 1)
Oakland Raiders +$5,000 (50 to 1)
Philadelphia Eagles +$1,500 (15 to 1)
Pittsburgh Steelers +$800 (8 to 1)
San Diego Chargers +$1,200 (12 to 1)
San Francisco 49ers +$4,000 (40 to 1)
Seattle Seahawks +$10,000 (100 to 1)
St. Louis Rams +$6,000 (60 to 1)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers +$3,000 (30 to 1)
Tennessee Titans +$6,000 (60 to 1)
Washington Redskins +$6,000 (60 to 1)

*from FootballLocks.com

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Greatest Super Bowl Performances

1. February 2011  - Published by Dan Clasgens

ESPN.com's Page 2 examines the best Super Bowl performances of all-time:

3. Jerry Rice: Unstoppable (Super Bowl XXIII)
You remember the miracle drive and Joe Montana's dramatic toss to John Taylor with 34 seconds left as the 49ers rallied to defeat the Bengals 20-16. You might have forgotten Rice's amazing performance, but the record books certainly haven't: Setting a mark that still stands, Rice gains 215 yards on a whopping 11 catches. On the winning drive, he caught three passes for gains of seven, 17, and 27 yards. Rice was named the game's MVP, but said he thought Montana deserved it.

COMPLETE LIST

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New York Super Bowl Makes Sense

26. May 2010  - Published by Dan Clasgens

After days of speculation, the NFL made it official on Tuesday announcing that the 2014 Super Bowl will be played in New York (really East Rutherford, N.J.).

There have been plenty of people express their concerns about playing the biggest game in a cold-weather, open-air facility. But aside from weather, there hasn’t been any other argument made against the move.

I don’t get the whole weather argument. This is football. Some of its greatest and most memorable games of all-time have come in cold weather. Sure, it is the Super Bowl and it is important. However, is it any more important than the AFC-NFC championship games leading up to it? At the end of the day the answer is no.

It is a much bigger issue when the Yankees are playing a World Series game in the Bronx in November. Baseball is not made to be played in the elements, football is.

Here are several good reasons that New York is a perfect fit:

THE CITY – The Big Apple is the perfect venue to host the Super Bowl. It is the biggest sporting event in the world coming to the nation’s biggest city.

ENTERTAINMENT – There will be plenty of stuff for people to do in New York City. Plus, can you imagine the star power at this game. The Super Bowl is always a haven for celebrities to flock to. With the game in New York, there will be headliners everywhere.

ACCOMODATIONS – Unlike when Jacksonville held the event there will be no problem with hotels, cabs, or restaurants for people to go to.

MEDIA – Media Day will be like never before with more media members calling New York home than any other market.

ELEMENTS – Let’s face it most of it will be watching from a couch or bar stool, so why do we care about the weather. The more snow the better. It is what makes football great!

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