Preseason Polls Are Rubbish

6. August 2010  - Published by Chris Murdico

Winning NFL picks, odds and power rankings all from our friends at Doc's Sports Service...

I'm not a believer in preseason polls at all. How can you rank any team before they actually play a game? I'm a firm believer that the polls shouldn't come out until around the beginning of October. By then every team has played four or five games, and are about to enter conference play. Preseason polls can really hurt teams that have stellar seasons but started out the season ranked too low to make a move to the top of the rankings. At the same time it can both help and hurt those teams that get top rankings. It can help them in the way that as long as the teams don't lose, they don't drop, even if teams below them are undefeated and beating better teams. But it can also hurt them. If a top ranked team loses, especially early in the season, they could slide pretty far down the rankings and have to fight their way back to the top, hoping to get a lot of help along the way.

With all that said, today the USA Today Coaches' Poll was released. It counts for 1/3 of the overall BCS rankings at the end of the season. Its no surprise that last year's BCS champ, Alabama, sits atop the rankings with 55 of the 59 first place votes. They are returning 10 of 11 starters on offense from last year and are definitely considered to be the favorites to take the title again this year. Behind them sits the the Ohio State Buckeyes, who received four place votes. With Heisman hopeful, Terrelle Pryor leading the charge, the Buckeyes could see themselves back in a national title game come January. Rounding out the top five is Florida, Texas, and the surprise to the party, Boise State. This is the highest the Broncos of the "Smurf Turf" have ever been ranked in preseason polls. While Boise State isn't in a BCS conference, its a very good possibility that they could crash the party this year. Their fate could very well be decided after their first game this year when they take on No. 6 Virginia Tech.

A complete listing of the USA Today Coaches' Poll is listed below:

1. Alabama
2. Ohio State
3. Florida
4. Texas
5. Boise State
6. Virginia Tech
7. TCU
8. Oklahoma
9. Nebraska
10. Iowa
11. Oregon
12. Wisconsin
13. Miami (FL)
14. Penn State
15. Pittsburgh
16. LSU
17. Georgia Tech
18. North Carolina
19. Arkansas
20. Florida State
21. Georgia
22. Oregon State
23. Auburn
24. Utah
25. West Virginia

*For those of us here in Cincy, the Bearcats are on the outside looking in at No. 26. Odds are they will be in the top 25 at some point this season, most likely after the first week if they beat Fresno State and one of the lower rank teams get upset and fall out.

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College Football Weekend Preview

25. September 2009  - Published by Rick Broering

Game of the Week:

#9 Miami at #11 Virginia Tech

This game should be a great one as these two renew their rivalry that used to constantly host huge games when both were in the Big East. Miami has reclaimed its spot among College Football's elite BCS teams, but some are are still questioning them. Their No. 9 ranking will be put to the test as they face the best team of their young season with No. 11 ranked Virginia Tech.

Much like last week, the key to this game will be if Virginia Tech is too one dimensional. They have some good running backs with David Wilson and Ryan Williams and Tyrod Taylor is always a threat to run at quarterback, but Miami's solid defense will try and force Taylor to beat him with his arm. Taylor is still completing fewer than 50% of his passes, but last week he made the big passing play when he needed to for his team to get the win against Nebraska. This week could be the same way if they are able to run the ball effectively enough, then they may only need a few big plays from Taylor's arm to win the game.

Miami's sophomore quarterback, Jacory Harris, has looked extremely impressive in his first two games throwing for 656 yards and five touchdowns and is being talked about as a Heisman contender. His offensive line has really contributed to his success allowing only one sack. Look for another big week out of Harris as his favorite target from high school, Aldarius Johnson, made his return last week and will bolster this deep group of receivers that are going against a Virginia Tech secondary that has had some struggles with their safeties and defending the deep ball.

Other Games to Watch:

Washington State at #12 USC

If you want to see USC play mad, then this is your chance. They will be taking out their unexpected loss last week to Washington on a team that has Washington in their name.

Fresno State at #14 Cincinnati

Some people have talked about Cincinnati as a Title game contender this past week. However, to do that they'll have to stay undefeated as they face another test in Fresno this week.

#22 North Carolina at Georgia Tech

Georgia Tech has been deemed as an overrated team. They will try to fight off that moniker as they take on the No. 22 tanked Tar Heels.

Upset Pick of the Week: Stanford over Washington

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College Football Weekend Preview

18. September 2009  - Published by Rick Broering

Game of the Week:

Nebraska at Virginia Tech

This game looks to be the best one in a weekend that isn't that special for college football. Virginia Tech was able to go into Lincoln last year and put up a season-high 35 points and escape with a five-point win. This year the Huskers are looking to return the favor.

The key will be to see if Virginia Tech can get any balance on offense. Quarterback Tyrod Taylor has been more of a threat with his legs than his arm so far this season. They have Ryan Williams, David Wilson and Josh Oglesby in the backfield to go along with Taylor giving them a stable of runners, but they will need to prove that they can complete some passes and move the ball through the air. In two games (a rout over Marshall and a loss to Alabama), Taylor is 18-of-36 for 252 yards with two touchdowns and one interception.

Huskers' quarterback Zac Lee has looked unbelievable at quarterback, but don't expect his 73.7 completion percentage to continue. However, he has proved that he is a capable starting quarterback. It will be interesting to see how he performs in a big-time game against another ranked opponent.

Other Games to Watch:

Michigan State at Notre Dame

Michigan State has won the last six times they've played in South Bend, but they'll need to sure up their secondary if they want to come away with a win this year.

Boston College at Clemson

Boston College leads the ACC in scoring offense and scoring defense. This week however, they'll have to prove that they can do it against a decent opponent as opposed to the cupcakes they've been thrashing.

Cincinnati at Oregon State

This is a matchup between two of the top coaches in the country that don't coach at big-time BCS schools. This game will give both teams a good idea of how well they matchup against like competition.

Upset Pick of the Week: Florida State over BYU

 

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Oragne Bowl Ratings Hit Rock Bottom

4. January 2009  - Published by Dan Clasgens

Stewart Mandel, SI.com says the fifth BCS game is a TV failure:

Whenever BCS officials defend their oft-criticized postseason system, they like to point to the "overall health of college football," as measured by increased attendance and TV ratings. They're talking, however, about the regular season.

In terms of the BCS itself, preliminary Nielsen ratings for the first three BCS bowls played this week show that viewer interest has never been lower.

The Cincinnati-Virginia Tech Orange Bowl played on New Year's night drew a paltry 6.1 overnight rating for FOX, shattering the previous low of 6.98 set by the 2007 Wake Forest-Louisville Orange Bowl. By point of comparison, the Dec. 27 Florida State-Wisconsin Champs Sports Bowl drew nearly the same-sized audience.

COMPLETE ARTILCE

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College Bowl Game Pick 'Em Breakdown

16. December 2008  - Published by Chris Murdico

The bowl games finally start this weekend. Fellow GetSportsInfo.com writer, Jeremy Fischer, and myself have put together our picks including how confident we are in them. In case you've never done a pick 'em game like this before, here's how it works. In addition to picking who you think will win the game, you assign a number to that pick as to how confident you think that pick is going to be right. There are 34 bowl games this year (way too many in most people's opinion, but that's beside the point), so the max number of confidence points you can give to one game is, yep, you guessed it, 34. The game you are least confident in you assign one point too, and fill in everything in between.

A lot of office pools are done like this and make it much more challenging than simply picking a winner for each game. As J-Fish states when it comes to doing a pick 'em game like this, "I have seen many strategies and I prefer the one that calls for using the higher confidence points on the bigger BCS games." He goes on to give his reasons as to why.

"Right or wrong, the larger conference teams get more coverage. The more information that is out there, the better informed pick you can make. The more informed you are, the more confident you'll be about a particular selection." Makes sense right? So picking the BCS bowl games really isn't as difficult as picking some of the more obscure games like the R+L Carriers New Orleans Bowl between Southern Mississippi and Troy that provide more difficulty in not only picking who will win, but deciding how confident you are in that pick.

J-Fish goes on to say, "Unless you fancy yourself as the next Jimmy the Greek, don't over analyze. The amount of games will definitely lead to paralysis-by-analysis." In my opinion, when it comes to picking some of the lower level bowl games, its almost more of a gut feeling when making that selection than anything else.

With all that said, let's get to the picks. What you'll find below is the bowl schedule starting with the first game on the docket all the way to the National Championship game on January 8th. With each pick you'll see both J-Fish's pick as well as my own with a little bit of analysis and how many confidence points (#) we have assigned to the pick we've made. Let's get to it with a look at the BCS games.

January 1st
ROSE - Penn State vs. USC
JFISH: USC (34) - Too much defense.
DICO: USC (32) - Too much USC! PSU hasn't seen anything like the Trojans this year. Ask OSU how things worked out for them. Plus this is a "home game" for the Trojans.

FEDEX ORANGE - Cincinnati vs. Virginia Tech
JFISH: Cincinnati (22) - 1st BCS bowl berth will drive the Bearcats.
DICO: Cincinnati (10) - Special teams could be the difference in this game. Mardy Gilyard for the Bearcats is one of the best in the country in the return game. A chance to finish the season in the Top 10 will push the Bearcats to a win.

January 2nd
ALLSTATE SUGAR - Utah vs. Alabama
JFISH: Alabama (32) - Utah hasn't faced a defense like this.
DICO: Alabama (33) - See JFISH's comments...the Utes will have a hard time stopping the 'Bama offense as well.

January 5th
TOSTITOS FIESTA - Ohio State vs. Texas
JFISH: Texas (33) - Too much speed on defense, and the Horns will be playing angry because of the whole BIG XII, BCS screw job.
DICO: Texas (31) - QB Colt McCoy will be too much even for a good Buckeyes' defense. Terrelle Pryor will see what team speed on defense is all about against the Longhorns.

January 8th
FEDEX BCS NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIP - Florida vs. Oklahoma
JFISH: Florida (26) - Tebow/Harvin will find a way.
DICO: Oklahoma (22) - Bradford leads the most potent offense in the country. Even with the loss of DeMarco Murray at RB, the Sooners won't miss a beat. Expect a high scoring affair.

COMPLETE PICKS (ALL 34 GAMES) 

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The Bearcat Blitz: Big East Championship Edition

1. December 2008  - Published by Chris Murdico

Even before taking the field Saturday afternoon, the Cincinnati Bearcats (10-2, 6-1) knew they were champs of the BIG EAST thanks to Pittsburgh knocking off West Virginia the day before. This is the first BIG EAST title for the Bearcats which will allow them to play in a BCS Bowl game. That bowl game will either be the Orange or Sugar Bowl.

Though their game against Syracuse (3-9, 1-6) didn't matter as far as the BIG EAST title went, the Bearcats still came out and played as though it did, winning 30-10. The defense played hard and swarmed to the ball, holding the Orange quarterback, Cam Dantley, to just five yards passing going into the fourth quarter. Dantley would finish the game goinng an abysmal 6-of-23 for 59 yards, one interception and three sacks.

The Bearcats' offense kept their foot on the gas as well as quarterback Tony Pike took advantage of a defense that left a lot of cushion. Pike hit his receivers with short passes and a lot of screens that went for big yards at times. He ended the game 28-of-44 for 272 yards.

After every score for the Bearcats, oranges were hurled onto the field. Everytime it happened the public address announcer would tell fans to not throw anything of the field because the Bearcats could get penalized. That didn't stop fans from doing it though, actually it just encouraged them to do it more, mostly coming from the student section. The Bearcats didn't need any help getting penalized, however. They were hit with 10 penalties for 107 yards, something that has become a common theme for this team.

Penalties aside, this team has played well all season. They've had to overcome an early season carousel of quarterbacks after Dustin Grutza broke his leg in the second game and then Pike broke his non-throwing arm in the fourth game. In total, the Bearcats used five different quarterbacks throughout the season with redshirt freshmen, Chazz Anderson and Zach Callaros getting playing time. Notre Dame transfer Demetrius Jones got in for one play in the Louisville game as well.

The passing offense has been the most prolific in the BIG EAST regardless of who was taking snaps. That speaks to the great receivers on the team, most notably Dominick Goodman and Mardy Gilyard. The defense has played well this season too, led by Conner Barwin who leads the BIG EAST in sacks.

One welcome sight from Saturday's game was kicker Jake Rogers connecting on all three of his field goal attempts. Prior to the Syracuse game, Rogers had missed five straight tries. He connected from 45, 38 and 45 again on Saturday. Earlier in the season Rogers was being considered as an All-American candidate at his position. The five straight misses may have hurt his chances at that, but seeing him hit his attempts on Saturday is a good sign going into the final game of the season and into whatever bowl game the Bearcats are invited to.

Its been an amazing season. The Bearcats, under second year head coach Brian Kelly, have now won 10 games in back-to-back season. Kelly has taken this team from obscurity and as a bottom feeder in the BIG EAST to champs of the conference. When asked if he's done all he can in Cincinnati, Kelly responded saying, "There's so much more to accomplish. We averaged around 31,000 fans; we need to see 35,000. We can show that not only do we play for BIG EAST championships, we now want to get into the conversation for the national championship." With the recruiting going on in Cincinnati, that idea is becoming more and more of a possibility.

The Bearcats have one game left on the schedule. They travel to play Hawaii Saturday night. They will learn their BCS bowl fate come Sunday evening. All indications are pointing to the Orange Bowl, but the Sugar Bowl is a possibility as well. They would end up taking on the winner of the ACC most likely, which would either be Boston College or Virginia Tech.

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X-Report: Muskies Off To 5-0 Start

24. November 2008  - Published by Greg Shoemaker

The Xavier Musketeers have gotten off to a not so pretty but very impressive 5-0.  It’s not even December and XU can boast of wins over the Big12’s Missouri, the ACC’s Virginia Tech and #12 Memphis.  They are building a fine resume for the post-season. It is a pleasant surprise to see them winning with such holes to offensively.
 
The Musketeers are gutsy, they know how to win and their defense fuels their tenacity.  That is a testament to the leadership of their five returning lettermen.  The ingredients are their for mixing up another special season. There are still many question marks so lets take a look at the good and bad that we have seen from this cast of players so far.

CJ Anderson – Heart and soul of this team and will not be denied.  Must keep his cool and stay in close games because that is where the team needs him the most.

BJ Raymond – Musketeers can’t rely on him to bail them out every time they get behind because he is just too streaky a shooter.  They showed they have overcome that hurdle in the Puerto Rico Tip-Off as Raymond was just 3-15 from behind the arc.

Derrick Brown – Slowed by a sprained ankle he relied way to heavily on his jump shot in Peurto Rico.  If Holloway learns to throw him the alley-oop pass he will be back to his old ways.

Jason Love – Just a solid player.  He looks like one of the most improved players AGAIN on this roster.  Is showing that he is capable of hitting FT’s in the clutch.

Dante Jackson – The sophomore is still raw offensively.  Has great enthusiasm and brings it on defense.

Jamel MacLean – Great energy off the bench can score down low.  He will lose minutes if he can’t shoot free throws late in the game. 

Kenny Frease – His shots were not falling in P.R.  but clearly has shown the tools to be one of the greats at the school.

Terrell Holloway – The point guard grew up in a hurry and did it under big time pressure with two 10-10 games at the foul line against Missouri & Memphis – what moxy.  It remains to be seen whether he can take the rigors of a full college season while running the show.

Brad Redford - a bit on the smallish side to earn extended minutes at this point.  He is a real shooting specialist and should slide right into that role with ease as the year wears on.

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Why you cryin'? Here's why you cryin'!

18. March 2008  - Published by Adam Bartel

This post is probably a day late (stupid life getting in the way of blogging), but a few teams out there that had their bubbles burst on Sunday have been doing quite a bit of whining.  Lucky for them, I'm just the kind of guy to give them a little tough love.  Who's up first?

SYRACUSE - Geez, we have this conversation every year, don't we?  Ok, let's get to the point.  Your non-conference schedule is just plain mediocre.  Now it's better than it usually was, and you got some decent wins over tournament teams like Siena, St. Joe's, and Cornell (though I doubt that's why you scheduled those games).  But you've got three out of conference losses to NIT squads (Ohio State, UMass, Rhode Island), and two of those were at home!  Yeah, you've got wins over Georgetown and Marquette, but you've also got losses at Cincinnati and South Florida.  Your road record sucks (would it kill you to schedule more than one road non-conference game?), and you were 4-6 in your last ten games.  Sorry, that's just not gonna cut it.  Next!

ILLINOIS STATE/CREIGHTON - Group therapy, just the way I like it.  Ok guys, here's the deal.  I get that no one wants to play you because you're in the scary non-power conference that is the MVC, and they've got everything to lose and nothing to gain by playing you.  And no one's more irritated than me about the power conference jubilee the big dance is becoming.  But you know, when you get the chance to play those teams (like you did ISU, when you had Indiana and Kent State back-to-back), you've got to win those games.  Beating Drake one of the six times you played them would have been a good thing too.  Maybe you're just going to have to go on the road and take the big boys on.  It worked for UMass, Cincinnati, and Gonzaga, and it can work for you too.  Ok, next victim.

VIRGINIA TECH - I'm going to go easier on you, since your coach Seth Greenberg took it like a man Sunday, and didn't get all whiny with the ESPN guys.  So I'll let you guys in on a little secret: you're not in the ACC.  Well technically you are, but you're not really in the ACC.  You play Duke, UNC, Miami, and Clemson one time.  You're really in a consolation group with Wake, BC, Georgia Tech, and those kind of guys, and the big ACC teams are more of a non-conference yearly series you play.  Which means you're going to have to schedule a little harder, and you can't lose five games to teams outside the top 100.  Yeah, your conference semifinal game against UNC was nice; it almost made me forget about the 39 point drubbing they gave you four weeks ago.  Maybe next year.  Bring in the next one.

DAYTON - This one's pretty simple.  13-1 with Chris Wright, 8-9 without him.  And guess what?  Chris Wright isn't walking through that door!  Roosevelt Chatman isn't walking through that door!  Negele Knight isn't walking through that door!  No soup for you!  Keep 'em rolling...

OHIO STATE - Ok, I'll give you a little credit, you finally upped your non-conference schedule strength - too bad you didn't win any of those games (oh, sorry, forgot Syracuse, that changes everything).  Playing Butler, UNC, and Tennessee only counts for something if you beat one of them.  4-8 on the road isn't going to do you any favors, especially if only one of those four was in the top 100.  Losing to Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota...why were we even considering you?  If you hadn't gotten those late wins over Purdue and Michigan State (your first wins over tournament teams not named Maryland-Baltimore County), this conversation wouldn't even be necessary.  And those wins only brought you up to 4-6 over your last ten games.  I've thoroughly enjoyed this.  I got time for one more.

ARIZONA STATE - Good goodness, how much have you paid Digger and Vitale to plead your case?  I haven't seen that much man love since the second season of Queer as Folk!  Waaah, we beat Arizona twice, and they're in and we're not.  Take responsibility for your own problems!  Your non-conference schedule included Xavier...and Princeton, LSU, Idaho, Delaware State, Florida Gulf Coast...I didn't even know there was a Florida Gulf Coast university, are you sure you didn't create them just to play them?  You played one true road game out of conference, and you got stomped at Nebraska!  You're 5-10 in your last 15, and went 9-9 in the Pac 10.  Bottom line: teams that can't win on the road and play 200+ RPI squads have to finish better than .500 in their conference if they want to dance.  It's just that simple.

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Did Kentucky deserve to get in?

17. March 2008  - Published by Dan Clasgens

Kentucky had a decent run to end the regular season, but some of the lossess that came earlier in the year, coupled with their quarterfinal exit in the SEC tournament left the team square on the bubble entering Sunday night. The Wildcats, despite being 57th in the RPI, earned a No. 11 seed. The only reason this team got in the tournament is because of ratings, tradition, and the fact few schools travel better. For those that don't think that the NCAA is all about money is sadly mistaken.

The fact that Arizona found their way in to the tournament is just another indicator that these selection are more revenue-driven than the average fan realizes. Arizona State beat the Wildcats twice head-to-head and have a better conference record their interstate foes. How in the world does that happen.

Let's get back to Kentucky though. Too much stock was put on the team's finish to the end of the year and not enough emphasis on their loss to star freshman Patrick Patterson.

TEAMS W/HIGHER RPI'S THAN UK LEFT OUT:
32. Dayton (21-10)
33. Illinois (24-9)
43. Massachussetts (21-10)
46. Mississippi (21-10)
48. Creighton (21-10)
54. Virginia Tech (19-13)

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The brackets, first reactions

16. March 2008  - Published by Adam Bartel

Having had a couple hours so far to digest the brackets, here are my initial reactions:

I have some quibbles with seeding here and there, but overall I think this is the best job the committee has done in years.  Committee chairperson Tom O'Connor said on the selection show that he suggested that the committee get an early start on the process, and it showed.

  • Baylor was probably the shakiest selection; they're the one squad I think that you could make an argument should not have been invited.  But, I'm not sure that any of the last-out teams really have a strong argument as to why they should have been in (Illinois State, Virginia Tech, Ohio State, or Arizona State - the latter of which is just about finished being serviced by the ESPN Bracketology crew).
  • If Kansas was, as is generally accepted to be, the last #1 seed in, I'm not sure that Georgetown should have been considered as the top #2 seed to face them.  I guess I find it hard to believe that a Tennessee squad that was considered to be a #1 just 48 hours ago could now be considered the worst of the #2 seeds (placed in the same region as #1 overall UNC) just because they lost a conference semi, when the Hoyas didn't win their conference tournament either.  You could probably make a serious argument that Wisconsin should have gotten a #2 seed instead of Georgetown; interestingly, they would meet in the sweet 16 if form holds.
  • Xavier caught a nice break getting Georgia in the first round.  It sure seems that mediocre squads that catch fire and win their conference tournaments seem to fizzle out in the first round, once the momentum subsides (off the top of my head, I'm thinking of Syracuse in 2006, St. Louis and Arkansas in 2000, and Georgia Tech in 1993).
  • Something feels very weird about the #4 seeds - Vandy, UConn, Pittsburgh, & Washington State.  All four have tricky first round matchups - if I had to rank them in order of most likely to lose, I'd say Vandy (vs. Siena), Pittsburgh (vs. Oral Roberts), UConn (vs. San Diego), and WSU (vs. Winthrop).
  • Everyone's already going bonkers about the USC/Kansas State first round matchup, which will pit O.J. Mayo against Michael Beasley.  Other exciting games should include UNLV/Kent State, Davidson/Gonzaga, Drake/Western Kentucky, Butler/South Alabama, and Miami (Fla.)/St. Mary's.
  • The most egregious underseeds were Butler at a #7, and Indiana at a #8.  Butler's strength of schedule was hurt by their conference weakness, but 29-3 with some decent wins doesn't merit this low a ranking.  Likewise, Indiana's resume had taken a few hits recently, but there's no way it earned a one-and-out seeding.  This is not to say that they'll win - frankly, I'm fully expecting them to lose - but they still should have been a higher seed.
  • On the flip side, Oklahoma as a #6 seed?  This is a team that was on the bubble about three weeks ago, and played their way in to the dance - though not overwhelmingly.  That's at least two seeds too high.

Overall, this is a very intriguing bracket that I'm looking very forward to checking out come Thursday morning.  Oh, and one more thing before I finish.  Ohio State, here's your sign:

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