It was like the AT&T commercial where actor Luke Wilson is in a restaurant and is having a random person text everyone in the whole country who has AT&T.  The random guy asks everyone to text him back to see just how many people have AT&T out there.  His phone starts to buzz so much it falls off of the table.  At 2:15 p.m. today, that happened to me.  My cell phone's text inbox had a life of its own and obviously something big was going on.  And much to my delight, it was the news that the Cincinnati Reds had traded their blunder from last year, Willy Taveras.

Cincinnati Reds GM Walt Jocketty knew that he could not trust manager Dusty Baker to keep Taveras on the bench this season, so he somehow traded him for not just a living, breathing human being, but a useful, living, breathing infielder.  Jocketty dumps Taveras, his $4 million contract and  infielder Adam Rosales on to the Oakland Athletics for veteran infielder Aaron Miles and a player to be named later.  The later player could be a lamppost- it does not matter.  This is grand larceny.  Taveras was one of the worst players in the Major Leagues last year both offensively (.240/ .275/ .285) and defensively and only Baker's insistence to play him was more frustrating than watching him.  He was so bad that Oakland immediately designated Taveras for assignment the moment the trade became official.

The good news does not end there.  Though the Cubs gave the A's $1 million to pay for part of Miles's 2010 salary when they traded him in December, that $1 million stays with the A's in this trade.  The Reds are on the hook for all of Miles' $2.7 contract.  Still, adding in Rosales' minimum contract leaving the books, the Reds end up saving about $1,700,000 on the deal.  They got rid of Taveras and saved money?  What is A's GM Billy Beane thinking?  Nobody could want Taveras and claim his contract or trade for it- the A's will be saddled with it.

This is now the best move of the offseason FOR THE 2010 SEASON that the Reds have made.  The other notable moves are not as important for this season; Adrolis Chapman's days of contributing to the big league will probably begin in 2011 (too many control issues right now- his walk rates in the lowly Cuban leagues were in the four to five per nine innings- yikes! ).  Recently signed shortstop Orlando Cabrera ($2 million for 2010 with a club buyout of $1 million for next year) is a slight upgrade at shortstop.  Though he can hit better than incumbent shortstop Paul Janish, he is nowhere near the fielder that Janish is. 

In fact, the reason that Cabrera signed with the Reds is that they were the only ones who offered him a shortstop job.  Not a good sign.  As long as he hits .285/ .335/ .425, he can overcome the lost defense.  These are not easy demands for the 35-year old Cabrera.  No, getting rid of the last of Dusty Baker's recruits is the biggest move.  By the way, have you noticed how quiet Baker has been this offseason and how few of Baker's "guys" (anyone with awful on- base percentage) were signed.

The trade boosts the Reds' win total from 80 to 84 in my calculations.  If they can stay relatively healthy, get anything out of Chapman, or get big years out of Homer Bailer, Jay Bruce and Johnny Cueto, it could go to 87.  How did I get that calculation?  Simple - addition by substraction.

MLB cincinnati reds, willy taveras, adam rosales, aaron miles, orlando cabrera, adrolis chapman

Better late than never, at least that’s what Reds’ fans are saying to themselves as February begins.

In a span of 48 hours the Reds have improved themselves at their weakest position, shortstop, and ridded themselves of one of the biggest burdens on their roster.

The team struck first by signing free agent shortstop Orlando Cabrera to one-year deal to a one-year deal worth $770,000, with a signing bonus of $1.25 million. There is a $4 million mutual option for 2011, with the Reds owing Cabrera $500,000 if he declines the option and $1 million if he the club declines the option.

Cabrera, 35, last season played for the Athletics and Twins and combined to hit .284 with 36 doubles, 9 HR and 77 RBI in 160 games. He led all Major League shortstops in RBI and ranked fourth among players at that position with 83 runs scored.

The native of Colombia finished the 2009 season with a 16-game hitting streak (.397) to help the Twins finish 12-4 and win the American League Central Division title.

In 1,732 career games for the Expos, Angels, White Sox, A's and Twins, the 2-time Rawlings Gold Glove Award winner has a .275 career batting average. Last season, Cabrera produced at least 186 hits for the third straight year and for the fourth time in his career. Five times in his career he played at least 160 games in a season.

In order to help make room for Cabrera the Reds sent outfielder Willy Taveras and utility man Adam Rosales to Oakland for infielder Aaron Miles and a player to be named later.

"I'm happy to be reunited with Aaron, who played a key role in our World Series championship in St. Louis," said Jocketty, "He's a quality infielder, a quality person and will be an asset to our club."

Miles, 33, was hampered last season by injuries to his throwing shoulder and elbow and made just 74 apps for the Chicago Cubs. On December 3 he was traded to Oakland.

Miles is a career .282 hitter in 717 games for the Chicago White Sox, Colorado Rockies, St. Louis Cardinals and Cubs. In 2008, he hit a career-high .317 in 134 games. Miles was a member of the Cardinals' 2006 World Series championship club and has played every defensive position, including three appearances as a pitcher, except first base and catcher.

Taveras, 28, last season for the Reds hit .240 with 1 HR, 15 RBI and 25 stolen bases in 102 appearances for the Reds. Rosales, 26, in 2009 hit .213 in 87 games for the Reds and .349 in 30 appearances at Class AAA Louisville.

MLB cincinnati reds, hot stove league, orlando cabrera, aaron miles, willy taveras, adam rosales

Just when you thought Reds outfielder Willy Taveras could do no more harm to the Reds...

He is back for Season Two of his contract otherwise known as "Nightmare in Centerfield, The Sequel".  It stars Taveras as the antagonist, Reds Manager Dusty Baker as his sidekick, and hopeful centerfielder Drew Stubbs as the protagonist who cannot win.  The only other possible hero is the mad scientist who created Taveras- Reds GM Walt Jocketty, and he seems to be gagged and bound and locked away under surveillance by Bean Counter Bob Castellini.  Is there any hope for the 2010 Cincinnati Reds?

Taveras is not even playing- nobody is even playing- and he is hurting the Reds badly in a number of ways.  First and foremost, is his $4 million contract for this year.  As a result of this commitment, the Reds have been unable to make any moves besides overpaying declining catcher Ramon Hernandez $3 million.  In fact, the Reds had to decline an arbitration offer to productive outfielder Jonny Gomes because they could not afford the estimated $1.75 million he was probably going to command in arbitration.  The Reds basically have made two separate decisions over the last calendar year to go with Taveras (.240/ .275!!!!!!/ .285!!!!!!) and Hernandez (his line of .258/ .336/ .362 was warped by a blistering hot April and May) over Gomes (.267/ .338/ .541 with 20 HRs in just 281 at bats).

Instead of handing Hernandez that contract, what they should have done- and technically can still do- is sign gold glove second baseman Orlando Hudson (.283/ .357/ .417) to a two- year, $5.5 million contract and move Brandon Phillips to shortstop.  This would have been a huge upgrade at shortstop over Rafeal Belliard- like Paul Janish (.211/ .296/ .305).  They could have signed a different free agent catcher to pair with Ryan Hannigan like defensive whiz Henry Blanco (now with the Mets) or left handed hitting Brian Schneider (now with the Phillies) or once promising Josh Bard (.230/ .293/ .361 in 2009, but in 2007 was .285/ .364/ .404).  The upgrade at shortstop would be significantly better than the Hernandez upgrade (term used loosely here) at catcher.   Or, dream case scenario, some moronic GM (Jim Bowden- where are you?) takes Taveras off your hands and you can afford Hudson, Bard and Gomes.  So next time someone declares that a ballplayer is, "worth a shot", point them to Exhibit A- Wily Taveras, who was not worth a shot because his presence alone is keeping the Reds from upgrading at other positions.

Another part of his presence is his roster spot.  As a result of the Reds' commitment to Taveras, he took the roster spot of Ben Jukich, a minor league pitcher taken with the 20th pick in the Rule 5 Draft by the St. Louis Cardinals.  Jukich had a 4.10 E.R.A. in 123 innings with Triple- A Louisville.  That may not be flashy, but these numbers are; he had 106 strikeouts with only 40 walks and had a groundball to flyball ratio of 1.36.  The Cards plan to convert the lefty into a long or middle reliever.  He may or may not pan out for the Cards, but if he does, Jukich is another Taveras casualty.

Lastly, and this is the scariest part of it all... he could be your Opening Day 2010 centerfielder.  Dusty Baker pushed Walt Jocketty to bring Taveras here.  Baker gave him a crazy amount of chances to prove Baker was correct to recruit him.  And now, the scenario could play out again in March of 2010... stubborn manager somehow back again wanting to justify himself... in just 40 Spring Training at bats, Taveras has some infield hits, bleeders, bloopers and seeing- eye groundballs and he pads his average to .268... Drew Stubbs, on the other hand, hits rockets right at fielders and come away hitting .175 in 30 Spring Training at bats... Taveras makes a diving catch and crashes into a wall- "Wow, he has a new attitude!"... Stubbs easily makes those same catches without diving or crashing and rubs Dusty the wrong way.  Its very possible.  In fact, its probable.

Signing Taveras was the worst move that any major league club made last season.  Small markets teams such as the Reds cannot afford to do that.  They do not have the depth, the finances, and in this case, the managerial prowess to overcome that.  You might have thought that Corey Patterson would have taught them a few lessons.  The Reds must change their free agent philosophy.  They must find the anti- Taveras; a player who can actually get on base and field his position at least adequately.  Some current free agents like Hudson, Gomes, Bard, Ryan Garko, and Kelly Johnson fit that description.  But then again, those guys will all be victims of Willy Taveras.

MLB cincinnati reds, willy taveras

It was pathetic, yet predictable, that we recently heard the Cincinnati Reds blame their awful season on injuries.  This excuse is flat out wrong.  This season's fate was very predictable well before the injury bug appeared.  It was easy to foresee doom after many, many poor decisions made by the Front Office over the last three years.  Here are the Top Ten Worst Front Office Decisions that led to this Reds debacle that we currently have.  But before that... the gloating:  there is no hindsight/ 20-20  judgement on any of these moves- every one of these moves was criticized by yours truly WHEN THEY HAPPENED.  On with the list...

10.  Signing Alex Gonzalez to a three- year, $14.5 million dollar contract:  Quit complaining that he never played.  When he did play, he was awful.  He was hitting .207/ .254/ .295 this year.  He contributed more last year by NOT playing at all.

9.  Trading Edwin Encarnancion, Josh Roenicke, and Zach Stewart to Toronto for 3B Scott Rolen:  Sure Rolen is a major upgrade over Encarnacion, but he is in his mid- 30s, injury- prone, expensive, and only signed for one more year.  Giving up two of the five prospects for Rolen was a steal for the Blue Jays and a ditch digger for the Reds.

8.  Signing Corey Patterson to a one- year deal to play CF in 2008:  Dusty Baker campaigned to get Patterson and he stubbornly gave him 344 at bats to hit .207/ .254/ .295 and drag the Reds down.  And Baker wondered why people thought Patterson was dating his daughter.

 7.  Signing Edwin Encarnacion to a two- year contract worth $7.6 million dollars:  This led to GM Walt Jocketty having to throw in Roenicke and Stewart to get the Blue Jays to take Encarnacion off of the Reds' hands.  If the Reds decline him arbitration, he is a free agent, the Reds still have Roenicke and Stewart, the Reds are still in 5th place, but they have a brighter future.

6.  Drafting Yonder Alonso instead of Gordon Beckham in the first round of the 2008 Draft:  One of the Reds' biggest holes to fill this off- season is shortstop.  There is no capable shortstop on the roster or in their minor leagues (except present second baseman Brandon Phillips).  That would not be a problem if they would have taken Beckham, who was scooped up immediately with the next pick by the White Sox.  Beckham is presently hitting .299/ .373/ .470 at the Major League level.  Instead, the Reds have a guy pushing Joey Votto, one of their few indepensible players.

5.  Trading Adam Dunn:  Public pressure trumped logic and production and the Reds sent Dunn to Arizona for peanuts.  Now, Dunn plays first base for the Naitonals and is hitting .285/ .417/ .580 while the Reds roll out Lance Nix and Johnny Gomes into leftfield.  Gomes is a good backup for the Reds and Nix is... a good backup in Triple- A.

4.  Signing Willy Taveras to a two- year contract worth $6.25 million:  What made anyone think Taveras was a major leaguer?  His history, his statistics, and his past teams' transactions involving him should have kept Jocketty (and Baker- he lobbied for Taveras) away.  It kept every other MLB team away.  The Reds outbid themselves for a Triple- A speedster.  They must eat his contract for next year and let Drew Stubbs play center field every day.  Speaking of Stubbs...

3.  Drafting Drew Stubbs instead of SP Tim Lincecum:  Stubbs is an excellent defender who can steal a base and has a great baseball makeup.  He is not an impact player.  He may struggle to hit .280 or get on- base more than .340.  A huge upgrade over Taveras- absolutely, but he is not Lincecum.  Drafting Lincecum would have given the Reds a #1 starter the past three years and would have made a difference of 8 or 10 more wins in the standings.  He would have brought more fans to the park, which would, in turn, bring more money into the Front Office, which would mean more money to spend on payroll, international signings, etc.

2.  Signing Francisco Cordero to a four- year, $47 million contract:  If you are the Yankees, Mets or the Red Sox, you can pay your closer $12 million a year.  Almost every else realizes that closers grow on trees so this is a great area to save money.  Todd Coffey (if he were still here), Arthur Rhodes, Bill Bray (last year), Jared Burton (last year), and David Weathers (up until last week) would have produced almost the same results for a lot less money.  With this available cash, the Reds could have spent on Adam Dunn or a real center fielder like Tori Hunter.

1.  Hiring Dusty Baker:  The guy is an ace with the media and has many of them snowed, but he cannot fool all of us.  He is the absolute worst manager AT ANY LEVEL when it comes to making out a lineup.  He lobbied for Patterson (.238 OBP) and Taveras (.276 OBP and no power) and then played them more than anyone else would have while also batting them at the top of the lineup.  In the two- hole, he used Alex Gonzalez (.254 OBP) and more recenltly, Paul Janish (.291 OBP).  What we have here is stubborn idiocy.  Joey Votto is going to hit .315 with 25 home runs in about 500 at bats and only have 80 RBI because nobody was ever on base in front of him.

Honorable Mention:  Drafting Devon Mesoraco who is looking like a huge bust.

Do not let the Reds fool you.  They - not the injury bug- are responsible for another losing season.  Is it fixable?  Stay tuned... I have some ideas.

MLB cincinnati reds, alex gonzalez, edwin encarnacion, corey patterson, yonder alonso, adam dunn, willy taveras, drew stubbs, francisco cordero, dusty baker, devon mesoraco

The Cincinnati Reds' midterm report card was mailed home this past week.  Let's go to the mailbox...

Manager, Dusty Baker:  F... His inexplicable insistance to play Willy Taveras and bat him first merits a pink slip.  This move alone has probably cost the Reds multiple games this year and it is not going to change any time soon.  Baker is a stubborn man who has consistently done this in the past with such notables as Neifi Perez and Corey Patterson.  He is who is he is and nobody is going to change that.  It is frustrating to watch his lineups flounder and it will lead him onto the same road to the Managerial Graveyard that Ray Knight and Bob Boone took out of here.

General Manager, Walt Jocketty:  C... Although Dusty Baker pushed for the Taveras signing, it was ultimately Jocketty's decision to sign the man who has cost the Reds so dearly.  The second biggest mistake he made was not signing or trading for a right handed bat, but there was not much on the market.  On the plus side, he did grab Johnny Gomes and Lance Nix for the bench- two solid moves.  Re-signing David Weathers and bringing in Arthur Rhodes were good moves.  The Ramon Hernandez addition has been a big improvement over last year's catchers.

Chris Buckley, Scouting Director:  C... The Reds' draft in June was conservative.  In the first round, there were plenty of high- ceiling, high school pitchers available, but the Reds were scared of their price tags and went with Mike Leake, a college pitcher, who should have been drafted about 12 to 15 picks later.  That has been Buckley's strategy for most of the past few years.  The lone exception was the 2007 pick of high school catcher Devin Mesoraco who has been nothing short of a disappointment.  Outside of Leake, the best two picks amongst the Reds 51 selections were second- round pick Billy Hamilton from Taylorsville HS (MS) who is generally regarded as the best athelte in the state of Mississippi and Cal State Fullerton outfielder Josh Fellhauer (7th round) who can just plain hit.

Ramon Hernandez, C/ 1B:  C... Filled in admirably at first base when Joey Votto was on the DL, but has been outplayed in almost every facet of the game by his backup.

Ryan Hanigan, C:  A... With a line of .338/ .429/ .407, he deserves to play a lot more, but that will not happen with his present manager (do the Assistant Coaches say anything to Baker about his lineups or are they just as oblivious?).  His defense behind the plate is the best Reds fans have seen in a long, long time.

Joey Votto, 1B: A-... If he had not missed over 30 games with stress disorder, his grade would have probably been an A+.  He is easily the Reds' best player and is one of their best hitters of this lost decade.  It is too bad so few teammates are on base when he is hitting.  I wonder if there is another three- hole hitter in MLB who hits with less people on base than Joey Votto.

Brandon Phillips, 2B: A- ... At seond base, Phillips is an elite player.  If he played any corner position, he would be an average player.  He would be a better hitter if he pulled the ball more and got rid of his inside- out swing that creates flyballs to RF.  He is one of the worst outside- pitch hitters I've ever seen.

Jerry Hairston, U: D... His specialty, on- base percentage, is now his albatross.  A .307 OBP, while easily beating Taveras' OBP, does not cut it if you do not have power.  I would sure like to see him steal more bases.

Paul Janish, SS: D... Janish is a great fielder- as good as Alex Gonzalez, but he cannot hit major league pitching.  He shows no sign of getting better either.

Alex Gonzalez, SS: F... The Reds signed Gonzalez to a three- year, $15 million contract in winter of 2006- 2007 and have almost nothing to show for it.  He had 393 at bats in 2007, none in 2008, and 182 unproductive at bats this year.  His pre- injury stat line of .214/ .256/ .302 would find him cut on most MLB teams, but it found him batting second for Dusty Baker!  Unbelieveable.

Edwin Encarnacion: 3B, F... This grade may change the most in the season's second half.  Look for Encarnacion to be the second most productive Red over the next three months now that he's fully healthy.  It would be nice if his manager batted him fourth or fifth instead of seventh or eighth.  Unbelieveable.

Adam Rosales, U: F... He has won the hearts of Reds fans, but he is really is not even a major league sub.  His numbers are worse than Taveras':  .198/ .285/ .282.

Drew Sutton, U: I... He has not had enough at bats with the Reds yet, but his patience at the plate has been impressive.  He better be careful with that patience, that will get him buried on the bench on this club.  Unbeliveable.

Laynce Nix, OF: C... Nix is a great bench player, but not a starter.  The league has begun to catch up to him and his numbers have recently declined.  He should never, ever, face a left handed pitcher.

Jonny Gomes, OF: B-... He is very similar to Nix.  He is not quite as good on defense, but is an good platoon player from the right hand side.

Chris Dickerson, OF: B-... He plays superior defense to Taveras, runs the bases as well as Taveras (except he needs to get dirty on pick off throws!), has more power than Taveras, and reaches base far more often than Taveras.  As a result, Dusty Baker plays Taveras.  Unbelieveable. 

Jay Bruce, OF:  C+ ... Sure, his offensive numbers are disappointing and he will now be out of the lineup until September, but his defense has progressed such that he is one of the better defensive outfielders in the league and his power numbers are still alive and kicking.

Willy Taveras, OF: F- ... What is worse than his .243/ .285/ .294 line from the leadoff spot?  How about another year of it?  He is signed through 2010!  His defense has been just as bad as his hitting- how can a centerfielder be tied for third on a team in errors?  He consistently gets terrible breaks on balls hit behind him.  Finally, he has only stolen 17 bases this year is just 22 attempts.  Why is he not running?  Watch his running habits- he rarely steals within five pitches on getting on base.  He has a negative value and is not a major leaguer.

Aaron Harang, SP: C- ... He has never been the same since Baker used him in extended relief in San Diego last season.  He has been inconsistent, but not as inconsistent as...

Bronson Arroyo, SP: C ... His numbers (5.07 E.R.A., 1.45 WHIP, 21 HRs allowed in 119 innings) are somewhat misleading.  He has had a few outings in which he was awful, but at the same time, he is on a 16- inning scoreless streak that could signal another second- half surge for Arroyo.

Edison Volquez, SP:  D ... The Verducci Effect is real.  I noted that Volqez qualified for it after last year.  Hopefully, you fantasy players listened and stayed away from him at your drafts.  If you did not pay attention, here is that rule again:  A major league pitcher who is under 25 should not throw 30 more innings than the previous season's total (unless there was an injury).  If he does so, cue the D.L. for the following season.

Micah Owings, SP:  C+ ... I'm not sure Owings will ever get more than a C+.  He is just not that good.  He is a major league #5 starter who can hit. 

Johnny Cueto, SP: B+ ... His two most recent starts have been terrible and have ruined some great first half numbers.  At the same time, he had been one of the luckiest pitchers in the Majors up to that time at stranding runners on base.  That eventually catches up to people, just ask Jimmy Haynes.

Homer Bailey, SP:  C- ... The big reason he was having so much success in Triple- A recently was his newly found pitch, the split fingered fastball.  So why is he not throwing it much here?  Is it because hitters here will lay off of the pitch?  If so, his recent success will be mixed in with poor outings and he will only be a back- end rotation thrower.  Better control of his fastball is the other key.

The Bullpen:  A- ... The strength of this team is led by overpaid All- Star Francisco Cordero and the dominant Arthur Rhodes.  David Weathers has not been nearly as bad as some may think (3.26 E.R.A, 1.22 WHIP, 14 BB, 19 K in 30.3 innings).  He has just blown up in some close games.  Nick Masset has been a pleasant surprise and youngsters Josh Roenicke, Daniel Ray Herrera, Robert Manuel and Carlos Fisher have helped and should contribute for years (especially Herrera).  Jared Burton has been the big disappointment here.

Overall:  C- ... It could have been a lot better.  The season seems to be slowly slipping away here in July.  It feels like an inevitable breakup with a girlfriend- you know the bad news is coming, but you want to avoid it.  As the Trade Deadline approaches over the next two weeks, the Reds should certainly be sellers and not buyers.  They do not match up with the Brewers and Cardinals and still will not match up after adding a bat.  If they added a bat, got some positive consistency from the starting pitching, fired a manager, and cut a centerfielder then hope would still shine, but that is not going to happen.

MLB reds, cincinnati reds, dustay baker, walt jocketty, chris buckley, ramon hernandez, ryan hanigan, brandon phillips, jerry hairston, paul janish, alex gonzalez, adam rosales, drew sutton, laynce nix, jonny gomes, chris dickerson, jay bruce, willy taveras, aaron harang, bronson arroyo, edinson volquez, micah owings, johnny cueto, homer bailey

Here are the top 15 pick-ups in fantasy baseabll this week (CBSSports.com):

SP Matt Palmer (ANA) -  went from being on 5% of teams to 39% of teams = +34% change
SP Shairon Martis (WAS) -   went from being on 18% of teams to 46% of teams = +28% change
RP Juan Cruz (KC) - went from being on 17% of teams to 41% of teams = +24% change
1B Nick Johnson (WAS) - went from being on 28% of teams to 44% of teams = +16% change
RP David Aardsma (SEA) - went from being on 19% of teams to 35% of teams = +16% change
SP Brett Cecil (TOR) -  went from being on 16% of teams to 32% of teams = +16% change
SP Jorge De La Rosa (COL) - went from being on 12% of teams to 28% of teams = +16% change
SP Matt Harrison (TEX) - went from being on 10% of teams to 26% of teams = +16% change
OF Juan Pierre (LA) - went from being on 40% of teams to 55% of teams = +15% change
OF Jerry Hairston (CIN) - went from being on 4% of teams to 18% of teams = +14% change
SP Barry Zito (SF) - went from being on 43% of teams to 56% of teams = +13% change
OF Willy Taveras (CIN) - went from being on 39% of teams to 52% of teams = +13% change
RP C.J. Wilson (TEX) - went from being on 2% of teams to 15% of teams = +13% change
SP Kris Medlen (ATL) - went from being on 1% of teams to 14% of teams = +13% change
3B Casey Blake (LA) - went from being on 55% of teams to 66% of teams = +11% change

Fantasy Baseball roster trends, matt palmer, shairon martis, juan cruz, nick johnson, david aardsma, brett cecil, jorge de la rosa, matt harrison, juan pierre, jerry hairston, barry zito, willy taveras, c.j. wilson, kris medlen, casey blake

No team in all of baseball enters Tuesday with a worst batting average than the Cincinnati Reds, who are hitting at .218 clip through 12 games. Yet the Reds find themselves two games above .500 (7-5) and in the midst of 5-2 road trip with three more games to go versus the Cubs at Wrigley Field. The team has mustered just 46 runs (tied for 27th in MLB) to this point.

So all of this begs the question, how in the world is this team winning games?

IMPROVED DEFENSE - The most drastic difference in this year's team early on to other teams in recent memory is their defensive ability, particularly in the outfield where more athletic outfielders such as Willy Taveras, Chris Dickerson, and Darnell McDonald are entering the mix. Regardless of what trio Dusty Baker has thrown out there it is a huge upgrade over last year. The departure of Adam Dunn and Ken Griffey may have left the line-up without power, but it has done wonders for the outfields ability to turn outs out what used to be doubles. In addition, the presence of Alex Gonzalez and Paul Janish at shortstop is a big upgrade over the Jeff Keppinger/Jerry Hairston stopgap the team counted on last year.

SMALL BALL - Kudos to Baker for showing he does have the ability to manage a young team. The manager has been nearly perfect in his implementation of hit and runs, double switches and pitching decisions. Coupled with the improved defense, the team's ability to get on base, run the bases, and hit for contact has been a factor in their early success.

TIMELY HITTING - The team has struggled overall at the plate, but they are getting enough clutch hitting to survive. Look no further than Monday night's series-clinching win over the Astros when Joey Votto and Edwin Encarnacion delivered two-run hits with runners in scoring position. They are getting a ton of runners on base, but they are not stranding many either. They have comeback to take to the lead in 5 of their 7 wins.

BACK-END OF BULLPEN - Not only has Francisco Cordero gone 5 for 5 in his save opportunites, but Arthur Rhodes has yet to allow a run as he has emerged as not only a left-handed specialst, but as legitmate 8th-inning man. Baker opted to keep him even against righties Carlos Lee and Hunter Pence on Monday and Rhodes once again wiggled out of a jam.

VETERANS IN ROTATION - While the young pitchers on the staff have struggled to find their grove, veterans Aaron Harang and Bronson Arroyo have provided consistency. The duo have combined to post a 4-2 record with a 3.43 ERA. Harang may only have one win to his credit, but he looks more like the Harang of old rather than last year's version. Arroyo is once again consistent.

MLB reds, dusty baker, willy taveras, chris dickerson, darnell mcdonald, alex gonzalez, paul janish, joey votto, edwin encarnacion, francisco cordero, arthur rhodes, aaron harang, bronson arroyo

With the Reds' season starting on Monday, it's time for my annual overs/unders. My partner Greg Shoemaker and myself came up with these props...

--Team: Total Wins = 82 (My Bet - Over)
It's been 8+ straight losing seasons for the Reds and while I don't expect them to keep up with the Cubs, I am officially on the record with a 84-78 record which would end the streak.

--Volquez: Total Strikeouts = 208 (Over)
He struckout 206 last year and while I think he may be hard-pressed to match his 17 wins, I expect very similar strikeout production.

--Harang: Total Wins = 15 (Under)
After winning 16 games in back-to-back seasons, Harang posted a career-worst 6-17 mark in '08. He'll get back to the winning side of the ledger, but fall just short of 15 wins.

--Bailey: Games Started = 17 (Over)
I can't picture a scenario where Homer Bailey is with the big league club at least for half of the season. He's pitched good enough in the spring to own it.

--Cueto: Innings Pitched = 186 (Under)
He nearly got here last season and an expected jump is unreasonable. He's still young though and the Reds will probably not push him to hard.

--Arroyo: ERA = 4.03 (Under)
The back of the baseball card does not lie. Arroyo's career ERA is 4.31. Only once did he go under this total as Red, but after the strong finish last season I am optimistic.

--Cordero: Total Saves = 35 (Over)
The only thing that stops him from getting here is his health (there have been concerns). He's making too much not to get the ball.

--Bruce: Total HR’s = 25 (Under)
He's definitely of capable of crushing this number, but I'm not banking on this season. I say he finishes with about 22-24 long balls.

--Phillips: Total RBI’s = 90 (Over)
Firmly entrenched in the No. 4 spot in the lineup, BP will be counted on to drive in runs. He'll make a run at 100 RBI's if the people in front of him do their jobs.

--Votto: Batting Average = .290 (Under)
I am looking for him to deliver the power numbers, especially with the protection of Phillips batting behind him. Still, his average is likely to fall somewhere in the .280's.

--Gonzalez: Games Played = 81 (Over)
This might be my biggest stretch on here considering his track record as a Red, but if he can't play half of the games he needs to hang it up after this year.

--Taveras: Total Runs = 86 (Under)
One of my keys for the Reds this year will be the number of runs scored by the team's new leadoff hitter. I hope I'm wrong here, but 80ish is more like it.

--Encarnacion: Errors = 20 (Under)
This number is way too high. Edwin is making strides at third and while he will have his share of booted balls, he won't eclipse this mark.

reds, aaron harang, edinson volquez, johnny cueto, homer bailey, bronson arroyo, micah owings, jay bruce, brandon phillps, joey votto, alex gonzalez, willy taveras, edwin encarnacion

With Opening Day less than ten days away, I trying to get a true feel for what the Reds chances are this season. After careful deliberation I am going to project an 84-78 record. While that could keep them in the mix for the division title, 2010 is going to be there year they will legitimately contend for the title. Here are five things that must happen for them to snap their streak of eight straight losing seasons.

1. AARON HARANG MUST RETURN TO FORM
If the Reds are going to compete in the division in '09, they can ill afford to have their staff ace go 6-17 again this season. Harang won 16 games in each of the two previous seasons and if he even comes close to that again the Reds will be in good shape.

2. YOUNG PITCHERS MUST CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
There's no doubting the upside of Edinson Volquez, Johnny Cueto, and Homer Bailey. The young guns have outstanding stuff and seemingly unlimited upside. How much will they progress this season is what is in question. It's hard to imagine Volquez's numbers improving, but if Cueto and Bailey each take a leap and Volquez stays steady the Reds could bolster the division's best starting rotation.

3. WILLY TAVERAS MUST SCORE 100 RUNS
Forget about the stolen bases and even the on-base percentage, the key stat for the Reds' sake when it comes to Willy Taveras is how many runs will he score? There were 25 different major leaguers to score 100 runs last season and none of them played for the Reds. With Taveras setting the table atop the batting order, getting him across the plate is going to be of the upmost importance. He's never sniffed 100 runs in his career, but did crack 80 twice during his stint with the Astros. To score 100+ runs he will need to get on base, make plays on the basebaths and have the players behind him execute. This is far-fetched I know, but this is a stat that if happens will almost certainly mean the Reds will be in the race.

4. JOEY VOTTO MUST ARRIVE
Asking Jay Bruce to be the man is a bit naive. However, this is Votto's chance to shine. Firmly entrenched as the team's No. 3 hitter, Votto will have the built-in advantage of hitting in front of Brandon Phillips. Votto looked good late in the season and has shown some signs of a breakout during the spring. The Reds are banking on 25+ HR's and something close to 100 RBI's. If he falls short so will the Redlegs.

5. SOMEONE MUST EMERGE AT SHORTSTOP
Alex Gonzalez can't get in on the field to save his life and already tweaked his hamsting again this week. The Reds need steady defensive play at shortstop if they are going to stay in games. Jerry Hairston and Jeff Keppinger are capable of some spot play at the positiion, but if they are counted again to carry the position primarily the Reds are going to struggle. This is one area where trading for an upgrade may not be a bad idea.

MLB reds, aaron harang, edinson volquez, johnny cueto, homer bailey, willy taveras, brandon phillips, joey votto, alex gonzalez, jerry hairston, jeff keppinger

CBSSports.com's Scott Miller raises these questions and more in his tour of Reds' camp:

Are the Reds flirting with disaster by weakening themselves in an area in which they should have a distinct home-field advantage?

Is Great American Ballpark such an easy mark for homers that even guys like Taveras, with a mere seven career homers in 1,973 at-bats, will be able to pop one here and there, thus reinforcing the Reds' new belief that the negatives in guys like Dunn (no range in left field, an iron glove, etc.) far outweighed the positives?

And just how hard can Gold Glove second baseman Brandon Phillips make starter Bronson Arroyo laugh?

COMPLETE PREVIEW

MLB reds, willy taveras, bronson arroyo, brandon phillips