Reds Land Latos

17. December 2011  - Published by Dan Clasgens

Cincinnati Reds general manager Walt Jocketty ended his winter hibernation by sending four players, including three of the organizations top 10 prospects to the San Diego Padres for starting pitcher Mat Latos.

Among the players sent to San Diego were starting pitcher Edinson Volquez, first baseman Yonder Alonso, catcher Yasmani Grandal, and pitcher Brad Boxberger.

Latos, 24, has the front-of-the rotation attributes that the Reds desired deeply.  He burst on to scene in 2010 with a 14-10 record and 2.92 ERA while allowing 150 H, 16 HR, 50 BB, 189 K, 1.083 WHIP in 184.2 innings.  He wore out down the stretch that season though and started 2011 on the DL.

The 6-foot-6 hurler struggled to get it going last season after becoming active, but finished strong by only allowing more than three runs once in his last 17 starts.  His final stat line for the season - 9-14, 3.47 ERA, 194.1 IN, 168 H, 16 HR, 62 BB, 185 K, 1.184 WHIP.

Alonso, a former first-round pick, didn't have a place to play with Joey Votto a mainstay at first base. Volquez was coming off a disappointing season, going 5-7 with a 5.71 ERA.  Grandal was considered expendable with the surge of Devin Mesoraco.  Boxberger was selected in the supplemental first round (43rd overall) of the 2009 draft.

It will be interesting to see how Latos goes from pitching most of his games in the pitcher-friendly Petco Park compared to the hot box that is Great American Ballpark.  Here is a look at some career splits that could shed some light on what to expect:

Home: 3.11 ERA, 185 IN, 17 HR, 1.15 WHIP
Away: 3.57 ERA, 244 IN, 22 HR, 1.15 WHIP
Ground balls: 538
Fly balls: 670
Career GABP: 2 starts, 14 IN, 5 H, 1.93 ERA

MY TAKE: Starting pitching comes at a very steep price and this move could prove to haunt the Reds.  The team felt that all four players, though talented, were expendable and Latos has upside, is cheap, and locked up for a few years.  I would like to know what they could of got for just Alonso and Grandal straight up. It may not have been Latos, but it may have been close. Volquez will always be remembered for be the guy the team gave Josh Hamilton for, a trade that can now join the Frank Robinson-for-Milt Pappas trade officially as the worst in the history of the franchise. For the sake of the Reds, let's hope this move doesn't enter that discussion. Latos is four years from free agency, so that is why he's considered such a valuable asset, but his nearly half a run difference in ERA away from Petco Park makes me a bit worried.

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Trading Votto May Be Best

4. August 2011  - Published by Dan Clasgens

Lost in the frenzy of NFL free agency and the end of the lockout earlier this week was some rumor mill buzz that the Reds may have been involved in talks with the Blue Jays involving a Joey Votto-for-Jose Bautista deal.

John Fay of the Cincinnati Enquirer speculated on such a move on his blog and did confirm that Toronto was in Dayton before the deadline to “specifically watch Daniel Corcino, probably the Reds best pitching prospect”.

While it’s debatable of whether or not the Votto-for-Bautista deal makes sense, the thought of trading Votto shouldn’t be so quickly ignored by the Reds.

The team recently called Yonder Alonso, who has been stuck in the minors because he plays the same position (first base) as Votto. He’s working hard in left field, but Alonso has played at first for his entire baseball life and the transition has not been easy.

Rather than just throwing Alonso in on some trade maybe the Reds would get better value for the reigning N.L. MVP, who could walk after the 2013 season.

Fay himself made some solid points on why the Reds-Jays trade could’ve worked:

–It opens a spot for Yonder Alonso.

–It fills left field with about as good bat as you could possibly hope for. Bautista is hitting .324 with 31 home runs and 71 RBI.

–Bautista is signed through 2015 at $14 million per year. He has an option for 2016 at the same number. Votto is cheaper next year at $9.5 million, but he makes $17 million in 2013 after which he’s a free agent. And he made clear when he signed his current contract that he was only interested in a three-year deal.

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Reds Trade Gomes

27. July 2011  - Published by Dan Clasgens

from official press release...

Cincinnati Reds President of Baseball Operations and General Manager Walt Jocketty today announced the acquisition of minor league LHP Chris Manno and OF Bill Rhinehart from the Washington Nationals in exchange for OF Jonny Gomes and cash considerations.

1B/OF Yonder Alonso (#23) was recalled from Class AAA Louisville to replace Gomes on the Reds' roster. He will be in uniform for tonight's game against the New York Mets at Great American Ball Park.

Gomes, 30, this season for the Reds hit .211 with 11 HR and 31 RBI in 77 appearances and 59 starts.

Alonso, 24, this season is an International League All-Star at Louisville and hit .296 with 24 doubles, 4 triples, 12 HR, 56 RBI and 6 stolen bases in 91 games. He made 21 appearances for the Bats at first base and 62 appearances in the outfield.

In each of the last 2 years, Alonso played for the World Team in Major League Baseball's prestigious XM All-Star Futures Game and this season was rated by Baseball America as the 73rd-best prospect in all of baseball. He made his Major League debut last season with 22 appearances and 3 starts for the Reds.

Manno, 22, went 1-3 with a 1.04 ERA and 12 saves in 13 opportunities at Class A Hagerstown (43.1ip, 20h, 15bb, 69k, 1hr, .135 opponents' BA). He was selected by the Nationals out of Duke University in the 26th round of last year's June first-year player draft.

Rhinehart, 26, has spent the 2011 season at Class AA Harrisburg, where in 89 appearances he hit .283 with 21 HR and 59 RBI in 89 games. He was selected by Washington in the 11th round of the June 2007 first-year player draft and was a minor league All-Star that season and again in 2008.

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Reds Top 11 Prospects

9. February 2011  - Published by Dan Clasgens

The top prospects in the Reds' system according to BaseballProspectus.com:

Five-Star Prospects
1. Aroldis Chapman, LHP

Four-Star Prospects
2. Devin Mesoraco, C
3. Billy Hamilton, 2B/SS
4. Yasmani Grandal, C

Three-Star Prospects
5. Yorman Rodriguez, OF
6. Yonder Alonso, 1B
7. Zack Cozart, SS

Two-Star Prospects
8. Juan Francisco, 3B/1B
9. Kyle Lotzkar, RHP
10. Ismael Guillon, LHP
11. Junior Arias, SS

COMPLETE BREAKDOWN

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Reds: Deal Or No Deal?

1. July 2010  - Published by Jimmy Dinsmore

Peter Gammons is reporting that the Reds level of interest in acquiring Cliff Lee is high. And can you blame them? Imagine the stud lefty anchoring the #1 slot in this rotation. However, the alarming thing was the one name bantered about in this potential deal – Travis Wood.

I would ask if the Mariners would be interested in Homer Bailey and Yonder Alonso and name a mid-level prospect for Lee. If I were Walt Jocketty, I would make sure that neither Leake nor Wood are included in any trades this year. But, imagine, adding two All Stars in Lee and soon-to-be-off-DL Edison Volquez to this rotation. Acquiring Lee would send the message to the Cardinals and more importantly, the fans, that this team is for real.

That type of deal would allow Aaron Harang to slide into the bullpen (and be an injury-replacement starter) and could sure up the still-shaky bullpen. Then imagine this rotation for the second half:

--Cliff Lee

--Edison Volquez

--Johnny Cueto

--Bronson Arroyo

--Mike Leake

***
Wow! Can you say October baseball in the Nati??

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Trip To Louisville Well Worth It

28. May 2010  - Published by Dan Clasgens

On Thursday night I made my first-ever trip to Louisville Slugger Field to watch the Reds’ AAA affiliate, the Louisville Bats, battle the Gwinnett Braves.

The main attraction was the Reds’ phenom left-hander Aroldis Champman, who was making his second start since getting promoted from AA.

After being sidelined for a week by a blister on his throwing hand, Chapman was worth the price of admission.

Chapman lit up the radar gun right out of the gate with his first six pitches being measured at 99, 99, 101, 100, 98 and 103 MPH. I never saw 103 before, not even back in the day when using Nolan Ryan on Nintendo’s RBI Baseball.

Control, which has plagued him since his time in Cuba, once again surfaced but he still overwhelmed nearly every batter he faced. The final line was impressive as he yielded three hits and a walk while striking out seven over five innings.  In total, 57 of his 90 pitches went for strikes as he struck out two batters in three innings.

His two wild pitches brought back flashes of Ebby Calvin LaLoosh from the movie Bull Durham, but it did bring fear to the opposing hitters.

I hope the Reds take their time with Chapman, but count me as a believer as the sky is the limit.

Also in action was former first-round pick Yonder Alonso. He raised his average to. 267 by going 1-for-3 and scored a run.

After getting some looks in the outfield, he started at first base.  He was hit hard in the knee by a pitch in the bottom of the 8th innings, but managed to stay in the game.

Other observations:
--Louisville Slugger Field is super nice and an amazing place to catch a game. Tickets ranged from $7 to $11 and there is not a bad seat in the house. 

--Concessions were slightly less than what I was used to at Great American Ballpark and there were plenty of options. I didn’t have the courage to try the Fried Bologna though.

--I really enjoyed the beer garden in dead center field, which was extra busy as Thursdays are $1 beer night. There are also some nice family areas with playgrounds and even a full sized Carousel that lit up the outfield.

--Former Reds’ great Eric Davis was in the house and in a Reds’ uniform in the dugout. He was very active in instructing the young players one-on-one throughout the game. He stayed behind afterwards and signed autographs for fans.

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Reds Musings: Time to Gloat

18. August 2009  - Published by Pete Muehlenkamp

It was pathetic, yet predictable, that we recently heard the Cincinnati Reds blame their awful season on injuries.  This excuse is flat out wrong.  This season's fate was very predictable well before the injury bug appeared.  It was easy to foresee doom after many, many poor decisions made by the Front Office over the last three years.  Here are the Top Ten Worst Front Office Decisions that led to this Reds debacle that we currently have.  But before that... the gloating:  there is no hindsight/ 20-20  judgement on any of these moves- every one of these moves was criticized by yours truly WHEN THEY HAPPENED.  On with the list...

10.  Signing Alex Gonzalez to a three- year, $14.5 million dollar contract:  Quit complaining that he never played.  When he did play, he was awful.  He was hitting .207/ .254/ .295 this year.  He contributed more last year by NOT playing at all.

9.  Trading Edwin Encarnancion, Josh Roenicke, and Zach Stewart to Toronto for 3B Scott Rolen:  Sure Rolen is a major upgrade over Encarnacion, but he is in his mid- 30s, injury- prone, expensive, and only signed for one more year.  Giving up two of the five prospects for Rolen was a steal for the Blue Jays and a ditch digger for the Reds.

8.  Signing Corey Patterson to a one- year deal to play CF in 2008:  Dusty Baker campaigned to get Patterson and he stubbornly gave him 344 at bats to hit .207/ .254/ .295 and drag the Reds down.  And Baker wondered why people thought Patterson was dating his daughter.

 7.  Signing Edwin Encarnacion to a two- year contract worth $7.6 million dollars:  This led to GM Walt Jocketty having to throw in Roenicke and Stewart to get the Blue Jays to take Encarnacion off of the Reds' hands.  If the Reds decline him arbitration, he is a free agent, the Reds still have Roenicke and Stewart, the Reds are still in 5th place, but they have a brighter future.

6.  Drafting Yonder Alonso instead of Gordon Beckham in the first round of the 2008 Draft:  One of the Reds' biggest holes to fill this off- season is shortstop.  There is no capable shortstop on the roster or in their minor leagues (except present second baseman Brandon Phillips).  That would not be a problem if they would have taken Beckham, who was scooped up immediately with the next pick by the White Sox.  Beckham is presently hitting .299/ .373/ .470 at the Major League level.  Instead, the Reds have a guy pushing Joey Votto, one of their few indepensible players.

5.  Trading Adam Dunn:  Public pressure trumped logic and production and the Reds sent Dunn to Arizona for peanuts.  Now, Dunn plays first base for the Naitonals and is hitting .285/ .417/ .580 while the Reds roll out Lance Nix and Johnny Gomes into leftfield.  Gomes is a good backup for the Reds and Nix is... a good backup in Triple- A.

4.  Signing Willy Taveras to a two- year contract worth $6.25 million:  What made anyone think Taveras was a major leaguer?  His history, his statistics, and his past teams' transactions involving him should have kept Jocketty (and Baker- he lobbied for Taveras) away.  It kept every other MLB team away.  The Reds outbid themselves for a Triple- A speedster.  They must eat his contract for next year and let Drew Stubbs play center field every day.  Speaking of Stubbs...

3.  Drafting Drew Stubbs instead of SP Tim Lincecum:  Stubbs is an excellent defender who can steal a base and has a great baseball makeup.  He is not an impact player.  He may struggle to hit .280 or get on- base more than .340.  A huge upgrade over Taveras- absolutely, but he is not Lincecum.  Drafting Lincecum would have given the Reds a #1 starter the past three years and would have made a difference of 8 or 10 more wins in the standings.  He would have brought more fans to the park, which would, in turn, bring more money into the Front Office, which would mean more money to spend on payroll, international signings, etc.

2.  Signing Francisco Cordero to a four- year, $47 million contract:  If you are the Yankees, Mets or the Red Sox, you can pay your closer $12 million a year.  Almost every else realizes that closers grow on trees so this is a great area to save money.  Todd Coffey (if he were still here), Arthur Rhodes, Bill Bray (last year), Jared Burton (last year), and David Weathers (up until last week) would have produced almost the same results for a lot less money.  With this available cash, the Reds could have spent on Adam Dunn or a real center fielder like Tori Hunter.

1.  Hiring Dusty Baker:  The guy is an ace with the media and has many of them snowed, but he cannot fool all of us.  He is the absolute worst manager AT ANY LEVEL when it comes to making out a lineup.  He lobbied for Patterson (.238 OBP) and Taveras (.276 OBP and no power) and then played them more than anyone else would have while also batting them at the top of the lineup.  In the two- hole, he used Alex Gonzalez (.254 OBP) and more recenltly, Paul Janish (.291 OBP).  What we have here is stubborn idiocy.  Joey Votto is going to hit .315 with 25 home runs in about 500 at bats and only have 80 RBI because nobody was ever on base in front of him.

Honorable Mention:  Drafting Devon Mesoraco who is looking like a huge bust.

Do not let the Reds fool you.  They - not the injury bug- are responsible for another losing season.  Is it fixable?  Stay tuned... I have some ideas.

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Reds Musings

31. December 2008  - Published by Pete Muehlenkamp

The Cincinnati Reds' off- season has been interesting on a number of fronts...

1.  Outside of the Yankees, owners have decided to cut back in payroll in anticipation of an economic downturn at their turnstiles.  Either that, or they are using the state of the economy as an excuse to cut back in payroll.  As a result, the Reds may not reach that $80 payroll figure that they had last year.


2.  As a result of the lack of spending on the free agent market (outside of the top- tier free agents), the price tags for many free agents should go down in late January.  Pat Burrell, Adam Dunn, Ben Sheets and others will not be able to get the four-year, $60 million contracts they were hoping for and this should help the Reds land Burrell.  In my Realistic Off- Season Plan for the Reds, I advocated the move to sign Burrell to a two- year, $30 million contract.  This lets him try the market when economic times will be better and it lets the Reds move Joey Votto to left field in two years to make room for Yonder Alonso.  Burrell is not Adam Dunn.  He has all of Dunn's positives and not as many of his negatives; he is right- handed, strikes out less, gets on base slightly more, plays slightly better defense, and is in better shape.  Check out the numbers:

Dunn's on base percentage the last four years:  .386, .386, .365, .387

Burrell's OBP the last four years:  .367, .400, .388, .389

Dunn's slugging:  .513, .554, .490, .540

Burrell's slugging:  .507, .502, .502, .504

Dunn's strikeouts:  164, 165, 194, 168

Burrell's strikeouts:  136, 120, 131, 160

Burrell could be had for about $10 million a year come late January if he is still available.  He would bat fourth (between Joey Votto and Jay Bruce).  He would help Bruce and Edwin Encarnacion (batting sixth) reach 100 RBIs because he is on base so much and he would make the awful pickup of Willy Taveras a lot easier to stomach.  Speaking of Taveras...


3.  A leadoff hitter's most important attribute is NOT speed.  That is a common misperception.  The most important thing a leadoff hitter can do is get on base for the big bats behind him to knock him in.  Taveras' on base numbers the last four years:  .308, .367, .333, .325.  If .345 to .355 is league average, Taveras' numbers are awful.  Since he does not get on base much, the Reds' #2 and #3 hitters, Brandon Phillips (who has his own on- base issues) and Votto, will not be driving in many runs.  It would not suprise me to see Votto hit .315/ .375/ .490 with 28 home runs and 85 RBIs.  The Reds won so much last year with Jerry Hairston Jr. in the lineup because he got on base for Phillips, Votto and Bruce.  Hopefully, the Reds can still sign Hairston and subsequently, bench Taveras.  If not, Reds fans will be comparing Taveras to Corey Patterson by June and though its a bit of a stretch, it is not too far off.


4.  Which brings us to Patterson.  The Washington Nationals signed him to a contract last week that confirmed three theories:  A.)  Nationals General Manager Jim Bowden is the worst GM of all time.  B.)  Nationals G.M. Jim Bowden has more incriminating photos of his bosses than any other employee in our country.  C.)  The Nationals have have been the worst baseball franchise of the last five years and with moves like signing Patterson coupled with poor drafts and the inability to lure quality free agents, they are assured of being the worst baseball franchise for the next five years.  To further emphasize this point... Mark Teixeira turned down $20 million more money (same length of contract) to go to his hometown Nationals in order to compete for a pennant with the Yankees.  They cannot even overpay for free agents to go there.


5.  Getting back to my Realistic Off- Season Plan for the Reds... RP Juan Cruz is still out there and Jonathan Sanchez is available through trade from the Giants.  There is still some hope to overcome an awful Taveras decision!

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Reds Musings

6. September 2008  - Published by Pete Muehlenkamp

Many Reds fans have turned the page on the 2008 season and started to tenuously root for the Bengals.  Those fans are missing some interesting times in Redsland; so much so that I will need two Reds Musings this week.  So tune back in on Wednesday for Part II.  In the meantime...

THE GOOD

  • With the signing of 2008 first round draft pick, Yonder Alonso, the Reds have completed one of their more successful amateur signing periods in recent memory.  The triumpherant of Alonso and the two 16-year old Latin studs, Juan Dixon and Yorman Rodriguez, give Reds fans encouragement for... 2012.  Besides those three, the Reds also stole RHP Zach Stewart in the third round of the June draft.  Stewart, a closer at Texas Tech last Spring, has dominated Class A so far.  His combined stats at Dayton and Sarasota are:  33 IP, 36 K, 14 BB, 26 HA, 0 HR, and a 1.09 E.R.A.  Another quick starter is sixth rounder, Alex Buchholz, a second baseman from Delaware.  In Rookie Ball at Billings this season, he hit .400/ .477/ .615 in 130 ABs.  This haul dwarfs the previous two years' worth of prospects that Reds' Farm Director Chris Buckley put together.

  • Jay Bruce has nine errors this season so far with the Reds.  This looks poor by almost any standard, but there are some positives.  Bruce has been credited for some errors on ground balls that he bobbled that let a runner score on a single from second base.  Are these really errors?  Secondly, Bruce has been credited with a few tough errors on dropped fly balls that Ken Griffey Jr. would never have come close to.  Reds pitchers have noticed the difference between Griffey and Bruce too.  Bronson Arroyo recently remarked about how much the Reds outfield defense has improved recently.

  • Another part of that improved outfield defense is LF Chris Dickerson.  Dickerson is probably hitting well above his head at .329/ .427/ 695 in 82 AB (his minor league numbers do not come close to this), but his disciplined approach at the plate, his speed, and his defense do translate into a solid fourth outfielder at the Major League level.  He is not the impact player that the Reds so desperately need, but he is a solid contributor and every good baseball team need players like him.

THE BAD

  • With the Reds long out of contention, logic says that the Reds should be experimenting with what they have to prepare for next year.  They have done that somewhat by giving Ryan Hannigan and Dickerson playing time.  But why aren't they putting Edwin Encarnacion in left field and Jeff Keppinger at third base to see if that may work?  Darryl Thompson should be pitching at this level now that he is healthy again.  Drew Stubbs should be thrown into centerfield to see if he can make contact with major league pitches (playing Corey Patterson serves absolutely no purpose besides bring Dusty Baker more abuse).  Josh Roenicke should be in the Reds bullpen to see if he can replace David Weathers.  This is extended Spring Training folks- let's take advantage!

  • Tom Verducci of Sports Illustrated has come up a system to predict down years for young pitchers.  It is simple really.  He calls it the Year After Effect:  He finds major league pitchers 25- and- under who have pitched 30 or more innings than the previous year.  He eliminates the "artificially depressed" pitchers, such as those that had an injury and uses their college or professional high instead.  With that, he comes up with a group that he predicts will either get injured the next year or will have a big drop off the next year.  In February of 2008, he ran his numbers and came out with this group:  Ian Kennedy (NYY), Fausto Carmona (CLE), Ubaldo Jimenez (COL), Tom Gozelanny (PIT), Dustin McGowan (TOR), Chad Gaudin (OAK, now CHI), and Yovani Gallardo (MIL).  All but Jimenez have been seriously hurt at some time this season, but he was a total bomb the first half of the season.  Gaudin has not been seriously hurt, but his workload has been decreased with a switch to the bullpen at the start of the year.  It is amazing how accurate this system is at predicting upcoming struggles and injuries.  Who is a candidate for Verducci's Year After Effect in 2009?  You guessed it- Edinson Volquez.  The 25- year old pitched 144.67 innings last year and has already thrown 170 innings this year.  Other Reds pitchers:  Johnny Cueto- 161.33 in 2007 and 155 in 2008; Homer Bailey- 138.66 in 2006 and 148 in 2008.  Verducci would tell the Reds to shut down Voquez RIGHT NOW!

THE UGLY

  • The White Sox are currently hitting Ken Griffey Jr. seventh and subbing in for him on defense late in the games.  He says that he is fine with all of this and loves his new team.  This reflects very poorly on Dusty Baker and further soils his reputation on dealing with and over- inflating the value of fading superstars.

  • Corey Patterson rarely gets on base, but even when does, he is making even more outs on the bases.  He currently is tied for the lead in the Major Leagues in getting picked off of first base with nine.  Amazing.

  • The Reds have been part of some of the best bet- the - house matchups so far this year in the Major Leagues.  The first came when Homer Bailey was struggling in late Spring.  He faced off against new Reds killer, Cole Hamels, and the Reds got pummeled.  That was possibly the lock- of- the- year in MLB.  Coming in a close second was the recent Josh Fogg start when he faced off against career Reds killer, Roy Oswalt.  The Reds had no shot that day, although Fogg did shut out the Astros for three innings before falling apart.


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Reds Sign First Round Pick

16. August 2008  - Published by Dan Clasgens

First baseman Yonder Alonso from the University of Miami (Fla.), the seventh overall pick in the amateur draft, agreed to a contract with the Cincinnati Reds shortly before baseball's midnight deadline Friday.

The deal is a major-league contract believed to be worth $4.55 million. It extends through 2012.

"If it wasn't done, the reality is he would be a college senior, and this is the last big year with the leverage," Reds scouting director Chris Buckley said.

Several first-round picks from the 2008 Draft remained unsigned as the deadline approached. On Friday, the Orioles signed No. 4 pick Brian Matusz to a $3.47 million deal with a big league contract. The No. 6 pick, Buster Posey, also signed a big deal with the Giants believed to be worth more than $6 million.

By signing the 22-year-old Alonso to a Major League deal, the Reds have to place the first baseman on their 40-man roster. But that was a lesser concern for the club during negotiations.

"One, we think he'll be here quickly," Reds assistant GM Bob Miller told the team's website. "It's not like we're worried about the [Minor League] options. The other issue is we have a lot of free agents and have some room. If it would have been a really tight roster, it would have been much more difficult." 

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