Week 1: Fantasy stockwatch

8. September 2010  - Published by Jimmy Dinsmore

Whether your draft is over, or yet to take place, you are always looking for that player you can steal late with huge upside, or that stud off the waiver wire. Here's some players, likely undrafted or drafted late, who could have a huge impact for your fantasy squad.

Isaac Redman, RB, Steelers - I had watched plenty of this running back during the preseason and thought he looked like a slightly less talented Jerome Bettis. It seems the "mini-bus" will be on the move in the Steeler backfield. Redman will get the goal line carries which makes him valuable. It hurts Rashard Mendenhall's value somewhat too. Redman is probably on your waiver wire right now and it's wise to go get him now, before he goes all Mike Alstott and gets snatched up.

Peyton Hillis, RB, Browns - Another AFC North pick-du-jour, Hillis emerges as a very chic pick this week and all season. Hillis is a pass catching running back who is especially attractive in PPR leagues. In one of my leagues, I snagged Hillis in round 10 and I'm giving serious thought to starting him as my RB2, over Clinton Portis or Thomas Jones. I will probably take a wait and see approach on Hillis, but don't wait too long before snagging Hillis.

James Jones, WR, Packers - A third WR on a team with a stud, pass-catching tight end is not usually the recipe for a great fantasy option. But, this is the Packers offense and Jones has a lot of upside. In a keeper league, Jones has even more value. It's not time to insert Jones into your starting lineup, but he makes a nice reserve.

Mike X. Williams, WR, Seahawks - Somewhere Matt Millen is saying I told you so. Williams was drafted by the Lions and all but left the league. He signed on with the Seahawks and impressed them so much, they cut TJ Houshmanzadeh. Williams is now a starting WR in the Pacific Northwest. His value is on the rise, so if you're lying in wait on him, just make sure you act quickly. One good game this week, and he'll be the hot commodity.

Josh Freeman, QB, Bucs - Talk about a buy low candidate. His value will never be lower as the Tampa quarterback is nursing a broken finger. He has practiced this week and says he's playing this week against the Browns. If he plays, he's actually an intriguing start against a bad defense. But on a stockwatch report, he's definitely a buy now candidate. Consider that Freeman is 6'6" with a nice arm and mobility.

Follow me on Twitter @dafantasygeek

Fantasy Football , , ,

Fantasy Fallout: Roster Cutdowns

5. September 2010  - Published by Jimmy Dinsmore

Yesterday was one of the most active days in the NFL. With rosters having to get down to 53 players, teams had to make tough choices. There were some moves yesterday that will have impact if you're preparing for your draft.

Seahawks cut Houshmanzadeh: The former Bengal, who signed a 5-year deal with the Seahawks last year, was cut and is now seeking employment. Housh will likely find work this weekend with several teams still needing help at receiver. Wherever Housh ends up, he needs to be dropped on your draft board. He cannot be counted on as the 80+ reception guy any more. However, he might still be a nice bargain if you have yet to draft, if he catches on in the right situation.

Cardinals kick Leinart: Perhaps the biggest name, but least shocking, cut was Matt Leinart. The former top-10 first round draft pick can certainly be considered a bust. The Cardinals chose to go with Max Hall rather than Leinart. Coach Ken Whisenhut seems high on Hall, who could be considered a decent sleeper in keeper leagues. Leinart, on the other hand, should not be drafted at all. Even if he latches on with a team, he'll be a backup and there are many in the NFL who feel Leinart is not an NFL-caliber QB. So more time for Leinart to spend partying with co-eds in a hot tub!

Redskins backfield less crowded: The Redskins had assembled a stable of running backs, none of which were overly impressive. Willie Parker was one of those and is now seeking employment. Parker, a former fantasy golden boy, now will be thrown to the waiver wire scrap heap. He will probably sign with someone, but will be deep on their depth chart, so keep an eye on Parker later in the season, but for now, consider him fantasy irrelevant. Ryan Torain was also cut by the Redskins. This one was more surprising as there had been chatter that coach Mike Shanahan loved Torain. In fact, he was considered a sleeper by several fantasy experts. For now, take a wait and see approach with Torain but don't draft him.

Derrick Ward experiment over in Tampa: Last year's chic fantasy breakout pick, Derrick Ward, was cut by Tampa. The fallout from this means that Cadillac Williams should move up draft boards to be considered a solid RB2 with a lot of upside. It also means that his new backup, Kareem Huggins, makes for a nice handcuff to Cadillac and also makes for a nice sleeper in keeper leagues. Ward has signed with Houston to be a backup to Arian Foster. Right now Ward doesn't warrant drafting, but likely will be a waiver wire investment at some point.

Vincent Jackson still a Charger: The disgruntled and maligned Charger receiver was rumored to be on the trading block. However, he did not get traded and his status remains quite uncertain. Here's the deal on Jackson. When he plays, he's a WR1. But, right now he's holding out and is suspended to boot. With that being said, Jackson should still be drafted. In keeper leagues, he has a higher value. If you're playing for this year, you should pass on Jackson.

Follow me on Twitter @dafantasygeek

Fantasy Football, NFL , , , , ,

Fantasy Bargain Shopping

28. August 2010  - Published by Jimmy Dinsmore

Winning NFL picks, odds and power rankings all from our friends at Doc's Sports Service.

Everyone wants to own all the top tier players they can for their fantasy team, but that's just not going to happen. So, it's best to pick the right top tier guys and then fill your roster with underrated players who perform as well as the bigger named guys. Here's a couple candidates to target:

Pierre Garcon, IND: The top pick for the Colts is obviously Reggie Wayne, but a closer look at Garcon shows that you should pass on Wayne and snag Garcon. Wayne did not even have 1,000 yards last year and has smallest yards per catch average of his career. His numbers are tailing off. Garcon had almost 800 yards receiving in limited action last year. This year, he's expected to start opposited Wayne. Expect Garcon to get to the 1,000 yard plateau this season. Garcon has an average draft position of 58 while Wayne has an ADP of 12. There's a lot of talent between those two numbers, so pass on Wayne and wait for Garcon, in the middle rounds (5-8).

Derrick Mason, BAL: Mason is one of the most unheralded fantasy producers. All he does is produce consistent (not stellar) fantasy numbers every week. This year, he has less pressure as Anquan Boldin is not expected to be the top receiver for the Ravens. Boldin will go before Mason, but it's Mason who makes for a better value. Boldin will probably get 1,000 yards, if he stays healthy (something he's had trouble with). Plus, Boldin will have to form chemistry with Joe Flacco and learn the new system. Mason has the relationship with Flacco. Mason is going, on average, in the 10th round of leagues while Boldin is going in round 3-4. Mason has a 3-year average of 85 receptions and 1,000 yards. Boldin has a 3-year average of 81 receptions for 900+ yards.

Jonathan Stewart, CAR: The Carolina Panthers have a duel threat in the backfield. Deangelo Williams is the top fantasy choice amongst the duo, but it's Stewart who carries the better fantasy value. Stewart has never gone a season without 10 touchdowns. Analyzing Williams' 3-year average reveals similar production, but when you take into account his freakish 18-TD output from 2008 and suddenly the two Panthers have the same numbers. But Williams is going in the first or second round in all leagues and Stewart is not going until round 4, on average. So why pay for Williams, when you can snag the same stats, touches, etc. with Stewart a couple rounds later?

Chester Taylor, CHI: All the talk is on Mike Martz and his affect on the Bears offense this year, but the Bears invested in Chester Taylor this offseason, for a reason. As all fantasy owners know, Forte was disappointment last season. So Taylor's presence puts pressure on Forte to excel or move aside. Forte will still go much higher in drafts than Taylor, as Forte as had a nice preseason and is technically the starter, but Taylor is a better value. Taylor's ADP is 126 while Forte's is 40. That's a huge gap. Taylor, who's been a part-time player his entire career, doesn't have the 3-year numbers to impress, but he has averaged 40 catches over the last three years. So in PPR leagues those numbers are more important. If you really believe in Forte, take him, but make sure you handcuff him to Taylor.

Follow me on Twitter @dafantasygeek

Fantasy Football , , , , ,

Position Battles: Tight Ends

16. August 2010  - Published by Jimmy Dinsmore

In many fantasy leagues, tight end is a required starting position, and if not, there are still several impact tight ends who are worthy of starting in a flex position. Here are a couple of the tight end battles to keep an eye, each one with major fantasy implications:

Washington: With Mike Shanahan calling plays in the nation’s capital, it’s hard not to have visions of Shannon Sharpe in your head. Shanahan’s offense generally uses a tight end as a primary target. Likewise, Donovan McNabb excelled recently with Brett Celek in Philadelphia. With McNabb under center for the Skins, Chris Cooley makes for a very attractive option. However, he is being challenged by Fred Davis, who filled in admirably last year during Cooley’s injury. In camp, Cooley will probably win the starting role, but Davis will push him and might steal some targets from Cooley in any two tight end packages. Cooley outshines Davis for hottest wife though and there's no competition there.

Fantasy perspective: Cooley is a top 10 tight end and someone I’m very high on this year. I am not worried about Fred Davis’ role on the squad. I like Davis as a long-term option and if your league requires a tight end and you have a deep roster, I like Davis as a handcuff to Cooley, and in dynasty leagues, I like Davis a lot.

New England: In April, the Patriots drafted not one, but two rookie tight ends, signifying a changing of the guards for New England at the tight end position. While TE has not been a vital role in the Patriots offense, that very well could change with Aaron Hernandez and Rob Gronkowski. Both rookies however are battling veteran Alge Crumpler for the starting job.

Fantasy perspective: Both rookies have a lot of potential. I think Gronkowski is the more complete tight end (he’s a physical specimen who can block), Hernandez is likely the one to make the bigger impact. Hernandez is more of a true passing tight end and will exit the field in running plays. But, Hernandez is going to be an attractive red zone target for Tom Brady. In keeper leagues, Hernandez has value. Gronkowski probably needs to hit the waiver wire with a mindful eye on his health and performance. Hernandez, however, is nothing more than a TE2 for your squad.

Cincinnati: The tight end position is something the Bengals actively sought to improve and did so in the draft by selecting Jermaine Gresham. This 6’6” athletic specimen has Carson Palmer excited as he represents something the Bengals have not had in a long time – a red zone target with great hands (who can also block) who can stretch the field and present match up problems. Gresham will have competition from veteran Reggie Kelly who will be more of a tutor/mentor for Gresham than a competitor. And, he’ll have last year’s rookie Chase Coffman, a great catcher but bad blocker, to compete with.

Fantasy perspective: Greshamhas a very high ceiling and could be a real find for your fantasy squad. The tight end pool is deep and I am not sliding Gresham into the top 15 at his position, but in dynasty/keeper leagues, Gresham is THE tight end to snag. The sky is the limit and the only question is whether he will be utilized and exploited.

Detroit: The Lions offense looks much improved. They had several nice veteran signings which should bring stability to a woeful offense. One such signing was Tony Scheffler. Scheffler is not a fantasy stud or even an impact player, but could make for a sneaky selection for a fantasy squad. Likewise, Brandon Pettigrew, a second-year player, could also be a nice target for Matthew Stafford.

Fantasy perspective: If I had to select one of these guys, I’d go with Pettigrew. He is coming off a knee injury and will likely have little impact early on, but late in the season and from a long-term standpoint, Pettigrew has nice potential. He’s nothing more than a TE2 this year, as is Scheffler.

Follow me on Twitter @dafantasygeek

 

Fantasy Football , , , ,

Position battle: Wide receivers

15. August 2010  - Published by Jimmy Dinsmore

The wide receiver position is where a lot of the big personalities in the NFL preside. It’s also a position where rookies can make an immediate impact. For this reason, it’s always good for some interesting battles in the preseason. Here are a couple of the wide receiver battles to keep an eye, each one with major fantasy implications:

Indianapolis: We all know that Reggie Wayne is the star wideout for the Colts and is still a fantasy stud. But, when Anthony Gonzalez went down with an injury last year it helped to showcase some real talent for the Colts. Pierre Garcon and Austin Collie both proved to be more than serviceable in the absence of Gonzalez and now will battle for the other starting role alongside Wayne. It might be important to the players to be called a starter, but all three receivers will have a role in the fantasy world, regardless of whether they’re a starter.

Fantasy perspective: Among the three, Garcon has the best big-play potential and showed to be the most consistent. He’s also a third-year player, so the sky is the limit. Garcon is an excellent sleeper candidate and definitely a WR3. Gonzalez will be back to form and is probably just a tick below Garcon. Any injuries or slumps in the preseason can move Gonzalez back ahead of Garcon, so watch closely. Austin Collie is probably the odd man in this trio. He still has value and should be drafted for depth in most leagues and makes a great handcuff to Garcon or Gonzalez.

New York Giants: The Giants became a passing team last year. Steve Smith broke out to become a fantasy star. Hakeem Nicks and Mario Manningham also had huge games as well. This pair will battle for the other starting role alongside Smith. Nicks is the likely leader in the race and has more upside than Manningham.

Fantasy perspective: Nicks has nice fantasy value. He seems to be an excellent route runner is someone Eli Manning learned to look for and target. Nicks, in his second year, has a lot of value in keeper leagues as well. Count Nicks as a solid WR3 or low-end WR2 in deeper leagues. Manningham is too inconsistent to be counted on in a week-to-week basis. But, you don’t want to miss out when he does have a big game. Manningham is a WR3/Bye week filler and also is a necessary handcuff for Nicks owners.

Dallas Cowboys: When the Cowboys drafted Dez Bryant in April, most thought that meant the end of the Roy Williams era in Big D. When Bryant said he wouldn’t carry Williams’ pads in practice it got even more interesting and the battle for the second wide out position (with Miles Austin entrenched as the #1 wide out) was on. It’s hard to imagine that Bryant won’t have a big role in the Cowboys offense, but thus far in preseason, Williams has performed. Of course, Bryant got hurt and will miss some time. The missed time in camp and the preseason could hurt his short-term value.

Fantasy perspective: Every fantasy owner in your league will take Bryant before Roy Williams, even if Williams performs better early. And in keeper leagues, Bryant has a lot of value. Bryant could be taken as early as round 5 in deeper leagues while Williams will slip. For owners playing for this year, and in non-keeper leagues, Williams could make for a nice find.

Cincinnati: The Bengals wide receivers are the star of this team. With Chad Ochocinco and Terrell Owens playing together as Batman and Robin, the battle for the remaining WR spots got a lot tougher. Considering the Bengals had also signed Antonio Bryant to a long-term contract and drafted Jordan Shipley, there will be quite a scrum for the third and fourth receiver roles.

Fantasy perspective: It seems irrelevant to discuss who will be the Bengals third receiver, but with so many offensive weapons the expectations are that the Bengals will pass a lot more, making this one of the vital roles to monitor. Andre Caldwell showed some development last year for the Bengals, but also had some big mistakes. Caldwell, even if he wins the role has little fantasy value, outside of deep leagues. Antonio Bryant, if he is healthy, will be taken and can be counted on as a WR3. However, Bryant has struggled in camp with a nagging knee injury and good money says he will be put on the injured reserve list. That leavesShipley, also a special teams star, as the best of the bunch. In keeper leagues, Shipley has more value. I still don’t think Shipley is going to put up impressive numbers this year, so only draft him late or as a handcuff to either TO or Ochocinco.

Tampa Bay: The Buccaneers have an impressive array of young talent on offense. Drafting Mike Williams and Arrelious Benn to go with second-year QB Josh Freeman makes the Bucs a nice place to look for young, cheaper talent for your fantasy squad.

Fantasy perspective: It’s likely that both Williams and Benn will be the starting wide outs for the Bucs and both of these guys have a lot of potential. Neither is an anchor WR for your squad but both make for excellent WR3 candidates. I would draft both of these guys over veteran options of equal ranking.

Chicago: Mike Martz is the new offensive coordinator for the Bears. This has a lot of fantasy owners and NFL experts calling for an offensive explosion in Chicago. I’m not as sold as I’ve explained in previous columns. I think Martz is more overrated as an offensive guru. That being said, the Bears have an intriguing battle at receiver going on. Devin Hester, Johnny Knox and Devin Aromashodu as well as Earl Bennett will battle it out for the love and attention of Martz and Jay Cutler. Who will come away as the starters is the question.

Fantasy perspective: Hester is the sexy pick by many draft experts, but of this group I think Johnny Knox is the one you want. When it’s all said and done, I think Knox will be a solid WR2 and is one of the biggest sleepers. Likewise, Aromashodu has some sleeper value to him as well. He makes a nice handcuff to Knox or Hester, who I think will be taken in rounds 6-7.

Fantasy Football , , , , , ,

Position Battles: Running Backs

13. August 2010  - Published by Jimmy Dinsmore

Running back-by-committee. It’s a terrible thing to hear from a fantasy perspective, but the days of the one feature back are gone. With the preseason underway, there are some good battles going on for starting roles in the backfield. Here are a couple of the running back battles to keep an eye, each one with major fantasy implications:

Houston: Houston, we have a problem. The backfield for the Texans is a hot mess. Steve Slaton was a bust last year. The Texans drafted rookie Ben Tate to compete for the starting job. Now, Arian Foster is having a phenomenal camp and just might’ve played his way into the starting spot. This situation bares a close inspection before your draft day and may not even be cleared up by then.

Fantasy perspective: In keeper leagues, Ben Tate is the one Houston RB you want, but his time may be limited this year. Foster makes for a great sleeper pick and potential bye week replacement RB3, at least for the first half of the season. And, I wouldn’t write off Slaton just yet either, especially in PPR leagues, where I think Slaton could still be looked at as a RB3 due to his pass-catching abilities.

Buffalo: How did Buffalo reward Fred Jackson, the team’s only bright spot on a woeful offense, for a 1,000 yard rushing season? By drafting a luxury rookie in C.J. Spiller. And, as of now, Marshawn Lynch is in the fold as well in Buffalo. This leaves quite a quandary for fantasy owners and gives you something to watch for in Buffalo’s camp.

Fantasy perspective: Fred Jackson is still the back that you want of these three. He ran for more than 1,000 yards  (with a 4.5 avg.) and caught 46 passes as well. His numbers might be diminished a little bit, but I think Lynch will be a non-factor or will be cut or traded before the season starts. The rookie Spiller is one of the most exciting players to come out of college in a while. From a keeper standpoint, Spiller has a lot of value. If your league rewards special teams accomplishments for players, Spiller has value this year.

Detroit: The guard has been changing in the Motor City for a while and the Lions seem to be on the right track. They continued that trend by drafting Jahvid Best. Best should have every opportunity to win the starting job over Kevin Jones who is coming off a serious knee injury. The battle between these two backs should be a good one, but in the end Best is the best option.

Fantasy perspective: Of all the rookies, Best might have the biggest impact (other than maybe Ryan Matthews). The Lions will do everything they can to get the explosive Best enough touches to see what he can do. But they will show caution because of injury concerns due to his small frame. Best is a solid RB2 candidate. If you draft Best, go ahead and try to snag Jones as his handcuff as a precaution. Jones, by himself, carries very little value.

Dallas: If Dallas is to receive a home game for the Super Bowl, they’re going to need production from their backfield. The problem is trying to figure out who will be the big producer in the Big D backfield. Marion Barber, Felix Jones and Tashard Choice all have roles and all have value. And on any given Sunday, any of those three could put up big numbers. Barber was injured a lot and has had decreasing stats for the last three years, so you have to believe that’s a trend and he’ll get fewer touches. Jones is owner Jerry Jones’ pet, but health has been his issue too. Choice became a nice little touchdown vulture and a waiver wire find.

Fantasy perspective: This is the toughest call for sure. Jones is likely to be the starter and has the big play potential and catches some passes, so I like him as a RB2 option. But, Barber isn’t going away silently, so I’d count him as a RB2 as well with Choice being a low end RB3 option. I would not draft both and think you can handcuff them as that strategy will likely not work as it will be too unpredictable as to who will have the big game that day.

Kansas City: I recently had a lunch-time discussion with someone about Jamaal Charles. I remember saying, if the Chiefs liked Charles so much, why did they go and sign Thomas Jones? I believe Jones’ signing greatly hurts Charles’ value. I loved Charles as a potential top 10 pick before the signing, now, I would consider him much less valuable. Jones is a touchdown vulture who will get the bulk of the  goal line opportunities. Charles will get his touches and will play a nice role in the passing game, so in PPR leagues, Charles is still a viable option. Don’t be let anyone talk down the Chiefs o-line. Charles still racked up 1,100 yards behind a bad line last season.

Fantasy perspective: Thomas Joens is the Rodney Dangerfield of fantasy sports. Every year he gets no respect and every year he overperforms. That will happen again this year. Jones will perform like a RB2 this year, but will be drafted like a RB3. Charles is still viable, especially in PPR leagues. He will be drafted before Jones. In a keeper league, I still like Charles in the first three rounds of your draft, in a non-keeper, non-PPR league, Charles value drops down several rounds.

Seattle: You know the Seattle backfield is a mess when they bring in Lendale White, and then cut him weeks later. The old and worthless Julius Jones is still clinging to a role. The Seahawks signed Leon Washington in the off season. And then there’s the curious case of Justin Forsett. The small-framed Forsett performed well when given the chance, but with a new head coach, it’s hard to say who will get the bulk of the carries in Seattle.

Fantasy perspective: Forsett is the safest bet. Some have him listed as a sleeper and potential stud. I’m not quite as high on him, but I think he could be a low-end RB2, but he will also be inconsistent and could lose just enough touches to the other two to frustrate owners. Leon Washington has value only as a handcuff to Forsett or RB4/bench depth. Julius Jones, don’t even think about it.

New York Giants: Thunder and Lightning are back, but lightning has moved past thunder on the depth chart. Brandon Jacobs, who continues to struggle with health issues, is losing ground and playing time to Ahmad Bradshaw. Bradshaw has had a fantastic training camp and coach Tom Coughlin has noticed and even said to expect more running and a more balanced attack from the G Men this year.

Fantasy perspective: Great news for Bradshaw who went from a RB3, mid-round pick to a RB2 and top 4 round pick. Jacobs is not going away and still also makes for a nice roster spot, just expect the occasional missed game from Thunder.

Follow me on Twitter @dafantasygeek or find me on Facebook.

Fantasy Football, NFL , ,

Position Battles: Quarterbacks

11. August 2010  - Published by Jimmy Dinsmore

(In the best John Facenda voice) Training camp is a time when men gather as a team and battle for individual position and prestige in the heat of summer. As training camp begins to unfold, there are some really interesting position battles taking shape. Here are a couple of the quarterback battles to keep an eye, each one with major fantasy implications:

Arizona: No other team has more uncertainty under center than the Arizona Cardinals. Kurt Warner's retirement assured there would drama in Flagstaff this year. Matt Leinart is penciled in (ever so lightly) as the starter, but the offseason signing of Derek Anderson means the heat is on Leinart. In a recent scrimmage, Leinart seemed to separate himself from Anderson, but there is concern about his accuracy and arm strength, and some of the coaching staff believe Anderson has a better arm and might be better suited for their style of offense. When the dust settles in the desert, I think Leinart wins the job, but his grip will be tentative at best.

Fantasy perspective: Leinart has little value and should not be considered as anything more than a bye week filler. I love the Cardinals offensive weapons, but I don't love Leinart at all. Should Anderson win the job, I would consider Anderson a low end QB2.

Cleveland: Call this position battle, the cluster in Cleveland. A crowded field of mediocrity stands alongside the "future" Cleveland quarterback, Colt McCoy. Jake Delhomme and Seneca Wallace were brought into Cleveland to play out this season while new President and GM Mike Holmgren grooms McCoy to take over. The real question is, when will McCoy be deemed ready and will Delhomme improve at all over his putrid performance last season?

Fantasy perspective: Don't even think about drafting Delhomme or Wallace. They are both terrible and have very few offensive weapons to help them excel. In keeper leagues, a case can be made for McCoy being a late round steal. He's a perfect west coast offense-type of quarterback, but if your goal is this year only, avoid any of Cleveland's QB candidates.

Denver: It's not necessarily a real competition in Denver's training camp yet between Kyle Orton, Brady Quinn and Tim Tebow. Orton is clearly going to be the starter and will likely hold onto that job all season. The real competition comes between Quinn and Tebow. Who will be the #2 QB? Normally that is an irrelevant question when it comes to fantasy, but when one of the candidates was a first round pick and is as hyped as Tebow, it bares watching. The Broncos management loves Tebow. He's obviously not ready to take the ball as QB, but can they find a way to work him into the playbook? They can't do that if he's the emergency/third string QB, so look for Tebow to surpass mega-bust Brady Quinn in training camp.

Fantasy perspective: Orton has decent value as a high end QB2 (nothing more) and in a keeper league, you may consider Tebow with a lot of potential, but for me, there are much better options for quarterbacks of the future. Someone in your keeper league will take the chance on Tebow though.

St. Louis: Not much of a battle between the band aid (AJ Feeley) and the franchise (Sam Bradford). However, Steve Spagnuolo has said that Feeley will start the year under center for the Rams. This is probably a good idea for the long-term health and value of Sam Bradford, but, make no mistake, Bradford will get some reps and eventually move in the starting role this year.

Fantasy perspective: Feeley has no value and Bradford has decent value as a backup QB. If you're in a keeper league, Bradford is THE QB to target. All observers have marveled at his accuracy and poise. If he can stay healthy, he could be a cornerstone to your fantasy squad for years to come.

Follow me on Twitter @dafantasygeek or find me on Facebook

Fantasy Football, NFL , , , , ,

Fantasy Busts: Tight Ends

3. August 2010  - Published by Jimmy Dinsmore

I've posted my QB, RB and WR busts. Here are a couple wide receivers who might disappoint fantasy owners:

Kevin Boss (NYG) – Boss is a borderline #1 tight end in most league formats. But, he is coming off an injury that he continues to nurse. Plus, he was far too inconsistent to cause anything but frustration for most owners. This is not what you want from a TE1. Additionally, the Giants have discovered many weapons on the offensive side of the ball, like Steve Smith, Mario Manningham and Hakeem Nicks. There's just not enough to go around to make Boss an elite tight end and therefore, count on a down year from the Boss Man.

Greg Olsen (CHI) – Olsen is one of the few offensive weapons the Bears have, but unfortunately, a new offensive play caller is in the Windy City. Mike Martz, the so-called offensive genius, is the new offensive coordinator and he rarely involves tight ends in his offense. Despite a career year for Olsen, don't count on the same production this year from the Bears' tight end.

Jeremy Shockey (NO) – People, it's not the early 2000s any more and please stop considering Shockey an elite tight end. Heck, Shockey is not even worthy of a starting spot in your fantasy lineup. If your league requires a tight end spot in your lineup, then Shockey is, at best, a bye week filler. Leave him for the guy in your league who hasn't checked his calendar yet and take a chance on one of the sleepers listed here instead of Shockey.

Follow me on Twitter at dafantasygeek or find me on Facebook

Fantasy Football , , ,

Fantasy Busts: Wide Receivers

2. August 2010  - Published by Jimmy Dinsmore

Winning NFL picks, odds and power rankings all from our friends at Doc's Sports Service.

****

I already posted some of my QB and RB candidates to be busts this year. Here are a couple wide receivers who might disappoint fantasy owners:

Steve Smith (CAR) – While the New York Giants version flourished and has a great outlook for 2010, the Carolina version has been in a freefall and has several things working against him. He's coming off a broken arm which he injured against little kids in his youth camp (this is an omen). Matt Moore is his quarterback, which might be an upgrade over the aging Jake Delhomme, but is still not enough of a positive for Smith, whose streak of 1,000 yard seasons ended last year. The Panthers are a run-first team which means Smith won't be a big factor and when he is, he's likely to get double coverage. The time has passed when Steve Smith is a WR1 for any fantasy team, and with all these factors, he might not even be a WR2. When you draft a Steve Smith this year, make sure it's the one from the New York Giants.

Vincent Jackson (SD) – You would think that a #1 receiver on a championship-caliber team would make a player a top tier selection. But, VJax (yeah, I'll stop that) is going to serve a three-game suspension to start the year. You could live with that and plan accordingly, but Jackson is also in the middle of an ugly contract dispute, having refused to sign his one-year tender. He's threatening to sit out the year, and while I doubt that will happen, Jackson simply cannot be counted as an elite WR. Now, he could fall in the bargain bin in your draft and would still be worthy of a WR2-level selection.

Wes Welker (NE) – Normally Welker can be counted on as a top 10 receiver. In PPR leagues, he's an absolute stud. However, he's coming off a Week 17 ACL tear which really hurt the Patriots in the playoffs. Welker has already started practicing in training camp and vows to play in Week 1. But, I'm not convinced. This is all Patriot games. I think, in the end, Welker will start the year on the PUP list. And, even if he doesn't, he won't have the speed and burst necessary to perform at a high level. For this reason, I'm passing on Welker. Unless he proves to be the bionic man, he can't be the receiver he was last year and therefore can't be counted on as a stud fantasy WR.

Follow me on Twitter at dafantasygeek or find me on Facebook.

Fantasy Football , , , , ,

Fantasy Busts: Running Backs

30. July 2010  - Published by Jimmy Dinsmore

I already posted some of my QB candidates to be busts this year. Here are a couple running backs who might disappoint fantasy owners:

Marion Barber (DAL) – Barber was one of the bigger disappoints last year, so I'm sure people are expecting less from him this year. However, I've seen some list him as a comeback player this season, but I frankly don't see it. Barber has lost his starting job to Felix Jones and loses goal line touches to Tashard Choice. He only had 700 yards last year, I expect even less thant that this year. Barber is no better than a RB3 at this point.

Rashard Mendenhall (PIT) – This isn't just my anti-Steeler bias showing here. Many experts think Mendenhall will be a solid RB1 option this year and I'm not sold. Don't get me wrong, Mendenhall is a young talent, but I think the Steelers have done nothing to improve their offense this offseason, and in fact, have gotten worse. No Big Ben for 4-6 games, no Willie Parker to spell Mendenhall, and no Willie Colon at right tackle. The Steelers offensive line was sub-par last year and they look older and worse this year, especially with Colon out for the year. I think defenses will stuff the box for at least the first 4-6 games to stop Mendenhall, so I think a slow start is likely. Tamper expectations on Mendenhall and in my book, he's more of a RB2 guy and not an elite running back, at this point.

 

Jamaal Charles (KC) – Charles, like Mendenhall, started 2010 as an early favorite to be a breakout player. But then a couple things happened to diminish his value some. The Chiefs signed Thomas Jones, the Rodney Dangerfield of the NFL. Jones, who is written off every year and gets no respect, will hurt Charles' value. Also, the Chiefs drafted Dexter McCluster who will be a hybrid RB/WR/Wildcat player who will take some of Charles' catches out of the backfield. And there is the very shaky Chiefs offensive line. All of this drops Charles from RB1, top 20 selection to an RB2-type of player who should be taken in the late third round.

Steve Slaton (HOU) – Much like Barber, Slaton was one of a handful of running backs to bust the hopes and dreams of fantasy owners last year. Which means he's due for a comeback, right? No way. The Texans drafted Ben Tate to take over in the backfield. Slaton didn't help his cause either with 7 fumbles. So now Tate takes over and Slaton moves to the sidelines. In PPR leagues, Slaton will carry a little more value, but at best he's a low-end RB3 or bye-week replacement.

Follow me on Twitter at dafantasygeek or find me on Facebook

Fantasy Football , , , ,

Fantasy Busts: Quarterbacks

27. July 2010  - Published by Jimmy Dinsmore

Every year players burst onto the scene out of nowhere and likewise guys who have great expectations, let their owners down. This year will be no different. Here's a couple candidates who might disappoint fantasy owners this season:

Jay Cutler (CHI) – Cutler failed to win over Chicago fans in his first year in a Bears uniform last season - far from it in fact. That being said, I've seen Cutler ranked anywhere from 8th to 12th. That would mean Cutler is a weekly starter for fantasy football. As Lee Corso would say, not so fast my friends. Cutler is in an awful situation in the Windy City. There are no weapons for him to throw to. Some might speak up and say, but isn't Mike Martz the new offensive coordinator? Yes, but I'll argue that Martz can be called a guru all he wants, but has very little track record of lighting up a scoreboard without a guy named Kurt Warner under center. And make no mistake, Cutler is no Kurt Warner. So, let another owner in your league take Cutler and you target a borderline starter like Chad Henne instead.

Ben Roethlisberger (PIT) – I will reserve all commentary about Roethlisberger's offseason troubles, but they do factor into his appearance on the bust list. Without the 4-6 game suspension hanging over his head, Big Ben would be a top 10 QB. And even if Ben had been able to keep little Ben in his holster, I would still put him on the bust list this year. His #1 receiver, Santonio Holmes, is gone. His right tackle, Willie Colon is out for the year. Willie Parker is gone. In short, the Steelers did very little to help Ben's situation out this offseason and they look quite pedestrian on offense. So, if Roethlisberger is available in a late round, maybe take him, but I'd probably avoid him altogether.

Vince Young (TEN) – Young was one of the best comeback stories of 2009. But before proclaiming the VY of Texas Longhorn fame is back, let's take a closer look. Young was extremely inconsistent, throwing for less than 200 yards in 60% of his games last year. For him to be considered a starting fantasy QB, he's going to have to produce more lines like he did in Weeks 12 and 13 last season and less like he did in Week 16 against San Diego. So, yes, he's still young and might still have his best years ahead of him, but without an elite passing system or elite weapons around him, I still consider Young nothing more than a bye week fill in at this point.

Follow me on Twitter @dafantasygeek or on Facebook

Fantasy Football , , ,

Fantasy Sleepers: Defense and IDP

26. July 2010  - Published by Jimmy Dinsmore

More and more leagues are adding an extra wrinkle to their leagues with the addition of individual defensive players (IDP). Make sure you familiarize yourself with your league's scoring before investing in any IDP. For example, defensive linemen and defensive backs don't score as high, generally, as linebackers. So if you're going to invest in any IDP, go with a LB first. Here are some sleepers to target:

TEAM DEFENSE/ST
San Francisco 49ers
– Mike Singletary was one of the toughest, meanest linebackers in the history of the NFL. His influence as the head coach of the 49ers is starting to show on the defense, led of course by the best defensive player in the NFL, Patrick Willis. While he's the anchor of the squad, there are a lot of young players surrounding Willis. And, the Niners play in arguably the weakest division in the NFL and this makes them a nice sleeper for your squad.

Also like: Jaguars, Panthers, Redskins

DEFENSIVE LINE
Haloti Ngata (BAL)
– Everyone says the Ravens are an old defense, but those people are overlooking some of the truly young, amazing talent on the Ravens squad. Ngata is case in point. His numbers aren't overpowering (which is the reason he's on a sleeper list), he was a force up the middle before tearing his pectoral muscle. Now this year, the gig is his full-time and the Ravens added to the line by drafting Terrence Cody to occupy space. Grab Ngata late in any draft and reap the benefits.

Also like: Kyle Vanden Bosch (DET), Derrick Harvey (JAX), and Cliff Avril (DET)

 

LINEBACKERS
Stewart Bradley (PHI)
– Bradley missed all of last year with a knee injury but is fully healthy and ready to wreak havoc up the middle of the Eagles defense Bradley has 100 tackle potential and will slip off most owner's radar, but you can snag him late for great value.

Also like: James Morrison (JAX), Roland McClain (OAK), D'Qwell Jackson (CLE)

DEFENSIVE BACKS
Dashon Goldson (SF)
– When I draft DBs, I try to steer clear of the guys who are the ball hawks, like Darrelle Revis. Revis is a stud, don't get me wrong, but he's so good, his numbers don't translate well in fantasy. Also, I don't like relying on INTs to get my points from DBs, instead I like guys who are around the ball. That leads me to Goldson, the 49ers free safety. He had 76 tackles last year. As mentioned, I love the Niners defense this year and Goldson is a big part of that.

Also like: Leon Hall (CIN), Aqib Talib (TB), Earl Thomas (SEA)

Follow me on Twitter @dafantasygeek or on Facebook

Fantasy Football , , ,

Batman and Robin

24. July 2010  - Published by Jimmy Dinsmore

Several reports lit up the blogosphere that a Terrell Owens signing with the Bengals was imminent. His best friend, Chad Ochocinco even tweeted:

"Coming soon to a city near you if your playing the Bengals, Batman= T.O. Robin= Esteban"

While the fact that Carson and Chad want TO to come to Cincinnati, that doesn't make it so. But, if the Bengals can make this happen, think of the lineup. The Bengals will easily have the best receiving group in the NFL. Chad, Antonio Bryant, TO, Jordan Shipley, Andre Caldwell to go with Gresham up the middle and a solid backfield of Cedric Benson and Bernard Scott. Wow! That's the optimist in me talking. Now for the pessimist.

If TO signs, expectations will be raised even further. Geoff Hobson said this will be the best team, on paper, in the team's history. Okay, so that means a deep playoff run, right? No let down, because all Bengals fans will not be able to take anything less. In fact, even without an addition of TO, I think anything short of a playoff win will be a major let down this year.

What do you think?

Follow me on Twitter @dafantasygeek or find me on Facebook

NFL , , ,

With the first pick . . .

20. July 2010  - Published by Jimmy Dinsmore

If you are fortunate to have landed your league's #1 spot in the draft consider yourself lucky, or if your league is like many, it means you might've been the worst team last year, and for that, well, better luck this year. In year's past, the first overall pick is usually a no brainer. Names like Tomlinson, Smith, Sanders, Rice, Davis have rolled off the tongues of giddy fantasy owners. And, more times than not, this is an impact pick. Last year's consensus pick was Adrian Peterson. And while he's no Ryan Leaf by any stretch, you could argue that the owner who selected Chris Johnson or Ray Rice or even Frank Gore got just as much value as the #1 overall pick. This year, there is no clear consensus.

Dinsmore, you are crazy, you are probably saying. What about Chris Johnson? Are you crazy? You gotta take him. He's a no brainer.

I am not bashing on the Titans running back and now with a new contract and happy, Johnson is certainly going to be taken by the majority of those who pick first. And I can't blame you. But . . . there's no way Johnson can repeat his ungodly numbers from last year. 2,000 yards is a once-in-a-lifetime milestone. So tamper back the yardage expectations. Here's a couple more names to think about before making your first pick:

Ray Rice: In a PPR league, you have to give a lot of thought to taking Rice first. He was targeted 101 times with 71 receptions. He is also a scoring machine and is easily the best weapon on the blooming Ravens offense. With Anquan Boldin now wearing purple, teams can't just focus on Rice. Ray Rice is a legitimate #1 overall option.

Adrian Peterson: Last year's #1 overall still has to be considered. He led all RBs with 18 TDs. If your league does not punish you for fumbles, Peterson's value is even higher. Gone is Chester Taylor to steal playing time, in is rookie Toby Gerhardt, who is a complete unknown. Peterson is still the man for the Vikings and can still be a stud you can count on. I would be a little worried about his fumblitis and his occassional nagging injury.

Maurice Jones Drew: Seriously, I know what you're saying. The little guy is good, but not #1 overall good. MJD has averaged double digit TDs over the last four years and has literally no competition in Jacksonville. No split carries, no running back-by-committee. Do I think MJD should be taken #1 overall? No, but you gotta look closely at him and definitely pull the trigger on him in the top four picks.

Frank Gore: The absolute darkhorse on this list. Gore has averaged more than 1,200 rushing yards and more than 50 receptions every year since 2006. The 49ers are considered to be an up-and-coming team and Gore figures to factor in huge. So, you could argue that the best is yet to come for Gore. He could be this year's Chris Johnson.

After much deliberation, if I had the #1 overall pick, I would either draft Johnson or shop around that top spot to someone who's jonesing for one of these aforementioned guys. Get some extra player or picks and slide down. If you are in the top 5 in your draft, you are going to get an absolute stud.

 

Got a take on this? Follow me on Twitter on @dafantasygeek or find me on Facebook

Fantasy Football , ,

Reds: Deal Or No Deal?

1. July 2010  - Published by Jimmy Dinsmore

Peter Gammons is reporting that the Reds level of interest in acquiring Cliff Lee is high. And can you blame them? Imagine the stud lefty anchoring the #1 slot in this rotation. However, the alarming thing was the one name bantered about in this potential deal – Travis Wood.

I would ask if the Mariners would be interested in Homer Bailey and Yonder Alonso and name a mid-level prospect for Lee. If I were Walt Jocketty, I would make sure that neither Leake nor Wood are included in any trades this year. But, imagine, adding two All Stars in Lee and soon-to-be-off-DL Edison Volquez to this rotation. Acquiring Lee would send the message to the Cardinals and more importantly, the fans, that this team is for real.

That type of deal would allow Aaron Harang to slide into the bullpen (and be an injury-replacement starter) and could sure up the still-shaky bullpen. Then imagine this rotation for the second half:

--Cliff Lee

--Edison Volquez

--Johnny Cueto

--Bronson Arroyo

--Mike Leake

***
Wow! Can you say October baseball in the Nati??

MLB , , , , ,