Week 1: Panic Button

13. September 2011  - Published by Jimmy Dinsmore

Week 1 in fantasy football is always a time when owners panic. Players underperformed or a key player sustains an injury. While it's only one week, patience is a virtue. So, is it time to panic or is it time to stay the course. Here's a breakdown of some situations that may have owners panicking.

Peyton Manning, Panic Meter: Ultra High
Analysis: The Colts QB is out for months, perhaps the year. Owners invested big in him and are scrambling. Now is the time to panic if you own Manning. If you didn't back him up with a quality QB2, do so now. Scour your waiver wire for an adequate replacement. Candidates include Rex Grossman, Cam Newton or maybe Ryan Fitzpatrick in shallower leagues. If you can't find someone, his replacement Kerry Collins is probably there, but requires a certain amount of panic too. In short, beg, borrow, steal, but panic now if you own Manning, because patience will only cost you your season with him.

Chris Johnson & Adrian Peterson, Panic Meter: High
These elite RBs have owners shaking their heads after single-digit performances in week 1. But, while the panic meter is high, extreme patience is required. Do not act on your instincts or do anything rash. Peterson and CJ2K will live up to their billing. Stats, generally, don't lie and these two are elite RBs for a reason. They will perform as such in the near future. Relax.

All Colts offensive players, Panic Meter: High
Dallas Clark, Reggie Wayne and Pierre Garcon owners are not happy. With Peyton Manning's absence, their stats are suffering. Wayne owners should remain calm. He is still a top-tier WR and put up good stats in Week 1. He is still a must-start. Clark and Garcon owners have reason for concern. Both players drop a notch in my rankings and if there are other options for you, you should explore them. Clark is still going to put up top 10 numbers for a TE, but of this trio, it's Garcon I'm most concerned with. Without Manning, Garcon is nothing better than a flex/bye week substitute until I see more from him.

Pittsburgh Steelers defense, Panic Meter: Medium
If you took a defense early, you likely grabbed the Steelers. They've always been steady eddy when it comes to fantasy production from team defense. They got absolutely torched by the Ravens offense and looked old. That's because the Steelers defense is old. The panic meter is on medium with this squad. They won't be a top 5 defense, but they are still a top 15 defense. No reason to panic. But if you have two defenses on your team, maybe you consider playing the match ups.

Jimmy Dinsmore can be found on Twitter. Follow him on Twitter @wheelseditor

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Make Manning Owners Pay

8. September 2011  - Published by Jimmy Dinsmore

News of Peyton Manning's neck surgery and being out 2-3 months is shaking up the fantasy world. His owners are scrambling, desperate and likely whining already. No doubt you have gotten, or will soon get, emails, message board posts and texts from his owners asking for a quarterback in a trade. My advice to owners is, make Manning owners pay. Don't just ship them your backup QB or if you were foolish enough to draft a third QB, for some garbage. Oh no. Now is the time to take advantage of the desperation from Manning owners and grab some real value from them. You want Matt Cassel? No problem, hand over your WR3 or RB2 or your starting TE. Upgrade your team, any area of weakness, before handing over a serviceable QB to the owner who gambled (and lost) on Manning.

He is toast for this year, and most of his owners are too. With one more owner out of the way, and weakened, that's good for your team. Sounds harsh, right? The same happens when Adrian Peterson goes down and the owner who had Toby Gerhardt offers you him, for the price of the moon. You kind of have to do anyway. So, all you Manning owners, hopefully you backed him up with someone decent, and if not, good luck finding a trading partner.

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Fantasy Spotlight: Cam Newton

2. September 2011  - Published by Jimmy Dinsmore

There were no other rookies from this April's draft who came with more intrique than Cam Newton. Some professed that Newton is not a starting NFL QB. Regardless, the Panthers took the Auburn QB first overall. And in their defense, the Panthers have done well by Newton in the preseason. He was just named the Week 1 starter, mostly due to Jimmy Clausen having a mediocre preseason performance as well.

So then, the question needs to be asked, what value does Cam Newton have in the fantasy football world?

In dynasty/keeper leagues, I like Newton, above all the other rookie QBs. I think with his athletic ability, his large frame and his ability to scramble and make passes makes him an excellent "project" for your fantasy squad. I would not recommend doing what the Panthers are doing with Cam, for your squad. Newton is NOT ready to be a fantasy football starter for your team. But, he can be a bye week fill-in for you. And here's why.

Newton will likely finish second in the NFL (behind Michael Vick) in rushing and rushing TDs, from the quarterback position. This does carry some value. Last year, Vick's numbers were so overinflated because of his gawdy rushing yards and 9 rushing TDs. Think of Newton as producing RB3-type of stats, but from the quarterback position.

His passing stats will be near the bottom of all fantasy quarterbacks and he will probably have a lot of interceptions as he struggles under center to learn how to be an NFL QB. But, for those times when he will make a play with his legs, you can suffer with Newton as your second or third QB for your fantasy squad.

If your league is a keeper or dynasty format, then take Newton confidently and you just might have yourself a QB who EVENTUALLY will put up top 15 QB numbers. Just realize that won't be this year.

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Fantasy Draft: What I Learned

1. September 2011  - Published by Jimmy Dinsmore

This past Sunday, I drafted my team in my 16-team, keeper league. Yes. 16 teams! Obviously, this isn't a league for the weak of heart. You have to come in prepared and you have to try to anticipate what will go down. But, when it comes to a standard snake draft, you can never fully expect the twists and turns and reaches that occur. But, after fielding a decent (not great) team in this draft, I learned one valuable lesson that I wanted to share.

Despite the fact that the NFL is very much a passing league, DO NOT forget to draft a running back, or rather a slew of running backs. Because the NFL has become more of a passing league, there are plenty of WRs who can put up solid numbers for your team. But, because there are so many running-back-by-committee situations, there are very few elite running backs.

Therefore, if you don't grab a RB in the first round, or the second round at the latest, you WILL regret it, even if your league is a PPR league. Unless you are talking about grabbing an elite WR, and in my opinion that means Andre Johnson, Larry Fitzgerald, Roddy White or Calvin Johnson, then go ahead and take a RB. The same rule applies to the QB situation. Do not take a QB early, unless it's late in the first round and Aaron Rodgers or Michael Vick are there. Otherwise, let someone else take Tom Brady, Phillip Rivers or Peyton Manning. Then you take that pick and grab someone like Frank Gore, Darren McFadden, Stephen Jackson or even Michael Turner.

Gore's average draft position (ADP) is 19, which makes him a steal in round 2. Feel free to go up and grab him earlier than that, especially now that he's signed a contract extension. Steven Jackson might not be the elite RB he once was, but he's still the primary cog in the Rams offense. With an ADP of 19.4, he's still a RB1 for your team. Darren McFadden was a stud last year and yet is still going late in the second round of most leagues, or even into the third round of shallower leagues. I would take the Raiders RB over someone like Hakeems Nicks or Greg Jennings or Tony Romo.

When you break down your draft and look at the depth, you'll realize that the RB position is razor thin, but still the most vital position to have dominance and separation for your fantasy team. Pass on those WRs and those top tier QBs, you can still grab difference makers at those positions in the mid to late rounds.

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Fantasy Auction: What I Learned

31. August 2011  - Published by Jimmy Dinsmore

I've been participating in an ultra-competitive keeper/auction draft with others from Get Sports Info, for the past several years. And every year, I go in with a strategy - targeting specific players, perhaps filling a specific need. But, it never ceases to amaze me when owners complain about missing out on "their guy". When you are in an auction draft, you can get the player you want. Sure, you might have to pay for him, but if this is your target, then don't sit on your hands and let someone else grab your guy. You have to be willing to pay the price, if he is indeed your guy, or main target.

In a keeper league, such as the one I'm in, you cannot follow any experts pre-assigned dollar values. First, most of these lists are so generic, they rarely fit your league's rule or set ups. Additionally, when superstars are kept, the pool thins. So, with fewer superstars to pick from you have to contend with inflation.

Do not underestimate inflation in a keeper auction draft. Even if all experts say Roddy White is not worth more than $24, if he's the best WR available, and you have the money to spend, don't be afraid to bid what it will take to get him, especially if he is the guy you need to compete and win your league. Don't settle simply because you are trying to save a dollar or two. This is not a winning strategy for auction league success.

Lastly, if you are not in an auction league, you should consider finding one to join. For me, they are the most fun adding layers of strategy than just a straight snake draft.

Follow Jimmy Dinsmore on Twitter @wheelseditor

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Snapshot: Tampa Bay Rays

26. March 2011  - Published by Jimmy Dinsmore

2010 Rewind: 96-66, first place AL East. The Rays looked like they were going to be a mainstay in the highly-competitive AL East. Two of the last three years they won the division, beating out the big payroll Yankees and Red Sox. Could a team with a limited payroll hold up against the big spending rivals? It doesn’t look like it.

The Good: A lot went right for the Rays; great offensive production, good defense, clutch hitting, excellent pitching. Many of those positives are not in south Florida this year. David Price, one of the best left-handed pitchers in all of baseball is still a Ray and his future looks brighter than the Florida sun. Wade Davis, who is the same age as Price, looks to be a solid #3 pitcher in this rotation. Evan Longoria is the best third baseman in baseball and an elite fantasy option.

The Bad: BJ Upton wastes a lot of his talent. He has shown flashes of being a 30/30 guy, but then plays lazy, gets attitude with his coaches and was even allegedly on the trading block last year because of his antics. He’s still young so if he puts it all together, Upton can be a star. For now, the center field job is his, but he holds it tentatively.

Biggest Loss: Where to start? The superstars departed like Florida snowbirds in June. Carl Crawford, Carlos Pena, Matt Garza, Jason Bartlett, and Rafael Soriano are all on different teams. If you’re keeping score that’s your all everything outfielder, your 30+HR first baseman, your no-hitting pitcher, your steady eddy shortstop and your closer. How do you replace all of that?

Best Addition: With all that talent gone, the Rays management had to make some moves, so they went out and added veterans on the cheap. Manny Ramirez and Johnny Damon are back in the AL East. How much impact can these two waning veterans have in Tampa?

Fantasy Slant: After Longoria and Price (who are both fantasy studs), the rest of the Rays lineup is a bunch of unproven young talent. Without a doubt the safest bet among the young talent is Jeremy Hellickson. This first round draft pick is the reason the Rays let Garza go to the Cubs. Hellickson could be a mid-to-late round bargain for your fantasy squad.

Final Take: With so much talent departing and aging talent coming in, the Rays take a step back. They just lost too much…2011 Record: 86-76, 3rd place, AL East

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Snapshot: San Francisco Giants

24. March 2011  - Published by Jimmy Dinsmore

2010 Rewind: 92-70, first place NL West, World Champions. The Giants barely won the NL West but then went on an amazing run en route to winning their first World Series in 53 years. While they have a core of solid players, their lineup was a hodge podge of veterans and journeyman. The chemistry worked as they hoisted the trophy.

The Good: Brian “The Beard” Wilson became a superstar in the playoffs for his burly facial hair, but his stats were what propelled the Giants bullpen to the top of the NL. When the Giants had a lead late in the game, it was more than likely a win for them. Andres Torres replaced the very worthless Aaron Rowand in centerfield and went on to be near the top of the NL in doubles and extra base hits.

The Bad: Pablo Sandoval. The portly third baseman regressed in 2010 where his batting average fell from .336 to .268. The third base job is still his, but he’s going to have to bounce back to win over fantasy owners.

Biggest Loss: Juan Uribe. Uribe signed a three-year deal with the rival Dodgers. Shortstop will be filled by Miguel Tejada, who is more than capable of hitting Uribe’s 24 HRs, or he could bust. Between Uribe and Edgar Renteria, the Giants are missing two big clutch hitters.

Best Addition:  Other than the aforementioned Tejada, the Giants stood pat. They did manage to resign Mike Fontenot to a one-year contract and the middle infielder will provide some much needed depth, but has no fantasy value.

Fantasy Slant
: The Giants are loaded with fantasy studs. Tim Lincecum is one of the top five pitchers in the NL. Buster Posey is the National League’s version of Joe Mauer and should be treated as such fantasy-wise. Two young players to watch are lefty Madison Bumgarner who has secured a spot in the rotation. Brandon Belt is the Giants first baseman of the future who will likely start the year in the minors.

Final Take: I don’t see any team in the NL West being able to contend with the defending champs. I do see the rest of the NL catching up with them and the Giants being unable to defend their title...2011 Record: 93-69, 1st Place, NL West

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Snapshot: Philadelphia Phillies

20. March 2011  - Published by Jimmy Dinsmore

2010 Rewind: 97-65, first place NL East. The Phillies rolled through the NL East and the first round of the playoffs and looked to be on their way to yet another World Series. But the Giants derailed them en route to the world title. So, it was time to revamp a team that already had little weaknesses.

The Good: Roy Halladay and Ryan Howard. Both superstars excelled, as expected. Raul Ibanez, who many predicted to have peaked in 2009, drove in 83 runs very quietly.

The Bad: Injuries and maybe age caught up with the Phillies infield as both Jimmy Rollins and Chase Utley suffered injuries that impacted the offense. In the NLCS, the Phils hit .183 as a team and missing Utley and Rollins was clear. Even more bad news is that Utley is battling a knee injury that will mean playing with pain this year or having season-ending surgery. Utley will try to give it a try, but his situation bares watching.

Biggest Loss: Jayson Werth. Werth drove in 85 runs and left via free agency. Outfield was a position the Phils felt deep at and were unwilling to back up the truck to pay for Werth’s services.

Best AdditionCliff Lee is back with the Phillies as they stealthly came in and outbid the Yankees for Lee’s services. Halladay and Lee give the Phillies a head and shoulders advantage over any other rotation in all of baseball. Add Roy Oswalt and Cole Hammels and you have the best pitching staff in baseball.

Fantasy Slant: There are plenty of fantasy studs to choose from with Howard, Halladay, Lee all going very early in drafts, but for a sleeper, look no further than outfielder Domonic Brown, who could be this year’s Jason Heyward and was one of the reasons the Phils let Jayson Werth walk.

Final Take: Some things never change The Phils will win the NL East, they will challenge for 100 wins and they will get back to the World Series…2011 Record: 100-62, 1st Place, NL East

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Snapshot: New York Mets

18. March 2011  - Published by Jimmy Dinsmore

2010 Rewind: 79-83, fourth place NL East. Nothing went right for the Mets, who finished near .500 merely on talent and the weakness of the NL East. Truth is, for a team with such a high payroll, the Mets are one of the biggest disasters in baseball.

The Good: The corner infielders. David Wright and Ike Davis are two homegrown prospects for the Mets, which says more to what the Mets should do for future success (rely on their farm system and steer clear of high-priced free agents). Davis, took over the first base job and proceeded to hit 19 HRs and 71 RBIs. Not huge numbers for a first baseman, but Davis shows a lot of promise. Centerfielder Angel Pagan, led the team with a .291 batting average and in SBs with 37.

The Bad: Where to begin? Injuries ultimately did in the Mets with superstars Carlos Beltran, Jason Bay and eventually Johan Santana going down. Then there’s the tumultuous clubhouse with Francisco Rodriquez having legal problems and in-clubhouse fights. And there’s also the underperformance of those not named Wright, Davis or Pagan.

Biggest Loss: Johan Santana. Going down late last year with labrum problems and surgery, puts the Mets bonafide ace on the shelf until the All-Star break (at least). This will be an insurmountable loss for the Mets.

Best Addition: Sandy Alderson is the new general manager and the fact that he’s the best addition, and not some big offseason free agent, shows the enormous task he has ahead of him. The Mets did nothing in the offseason and Alderson has to find a way to rid himself of bad contracts while turning to the youth for the future.

Fantasy Slant: Wright is the first-round stud on this team. Jose Reyes is still only 27 years old but has struggled with injuries. Reyes’ value is down, so you might be able to grab him later as a bargain. If healthy, he could pay big dividends. From a youth perspective, Pagan has a lot of value. He won’t hit for a ton of power, but will provide average, runs and stolen bases.

Final Take: With no Santana, a shaky bullpen and bad ownership, the arrow is pointing down for the Mets. They still have talent to be competitive, but with a lack of pitching and the previously-mentioned problems, this team is staring at another losing season and another 4th place finish...2011 Record: 75-88, 4th Place, NL East

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Snapshot: Milwaukee Brewers

16. March 2011  - Published by Jimmy Dinsmore

2010 Rewind: 77-85, third place NL Central. The Brewers came off another typical season. Showed flashes of potential, but fell short. Thus, the Brewers ownership decided to change their fate.

The Good: Rickie Weeks led the majors in home runs, runs and RBIs from the lead-off spot and proved that when healthy, Weeks is a potent offensive weapon. Ryan Braun is a top-10 fantasy stud and combined with Prince Fielder makes up the new Brew Crew potent lineup.

The Bad: The bullpen and starting rotation. Outside of Yovani Gallardo, the Brewers have lacked any consistency in their starting rotation. Additionally, the Brewers added veterans Trevor Hoffman and LaTroy Hawkins to their young bullpen last year and those additions were an unmitigated disaster.

Biggest Loss: With a rotating door at shortstop, JJ Hardy and Alcides Escobar were both traded last year. Lorenzo Cain was also traded to make room for Carlos Gomez in centerfield. The Brewers organization believes in the speedy outfielder and are putting a lot of eggs in his basket.

Best AdditionZack Greinke and Shaun Marcum. These two AL imports will help to anchor the Brewers rotation. Greinke will start the year on the DL with a broken rib, but is expected back before the end of April. Marcum was the Blue Jays' opening day pitcher and becomes the third pitcher in a solid rotation behind Greinke and Gallardo. Yuniesky Betancourt arrives to play shortstop. Betancourt looks alike his previous predecessors at that position.

Fantasy Slant: The Brewers have plenty of fantasy-relevant players, including Fielder and Braun, Weeks and Greinke, Marcum and Gallardo. But they also have some young talent. Third baseman Casey McGehee drove in 104 runs last year and made his impact felt. He will be a hot commodity in most drafts and won’t slip off too many radars. The fantasy sleeper is Carlos Gomez. He could provide those ever-important steals to your fantasy squad.

Final Take: With the St. Louis Cardinals weakened by the loss of Adam Wainright, the NL Central is up for grabs and the Brewers are going to surprise some people. All pieces are place for a postseason run…2011 Record: 88-74, 2nd Place, NL Central

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