Undervalued – SS Ian Desmond:  If you judge Desmond by only his numbers last year, he’d be a top 5 fantasy player at his position. A legitimate 20/20 guy who hits for average is exactly what you need at a weak position like shortstop. So as the bigger names go off the board early, and even the aged names like Jeter get fantasy attention, let Desmond slide to you in the middle rounds, and feel quite good about your selection.

Overvalued – SP Stephen Strasburg: Strasburg is ridiculously good. And will be again this year. But, because of the concerns about his health and another pitch count, this hurts his fantasy value. For a pitcher going as one of the first five players going at his position, you need more than 160 innings, even if those 160 innings are statistically spectacular. So there should be huge trepidation in counting on Strasburg as your top fantasy pitcher, because he could once again, be sitting on the pine, during the stretch run of your fantasy playoffs, and that’s why he’s overvalued.

Sleeper – C Wilson Ramos: Catcher is such a gelatinous fantasy position. Every catcher outside the top three, are all the same. And a player like Ramos is going undrafted in the majority of leagues. His injury-riddled season last year kept his numbers down. The presence of Kurt Suzuki, the fantasy equivalent to dry toast, keeps Ramos off radars. In two catcher leagues, Ramos makes a fantastic late round snag as his ceiling is much higher than Suzuki, certainly, and higher than others being drafted ahead of him.

Bust – 1B Adam Laroche: If Laroche played a different position, he may garner more excitement. But at such a deep position, the now 32-year-old Laroche just doesn’t put up enough excitement and statistics to warrant a starting role on your fantasy squad. And, expect a drop from his 33 HR season last year too, as it was a career best.

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Undervalued – 2B Dan Uggla:  A former big name and highly drafted player, Uggla was one of the biggest busts in 2012. His power numbers were way down and he hit only .220. As such, owners aren’t getting fooled again, and there are shallow leagues where Uggla is going undrafted. This is foolishness. Uggla will return to his 25+ HR power and get the BA back up to his career average of .250. At a weak position like 2B, that’s more than acceptable. You should be able to steal Uggla, and draft him as perhaps even a backup player, which would be an ideal situation.

Overvalued – OF Justin Upton: Now paired up in the same lineup with his brother BJ, both Upton brothers are always overhyped. Yet, Justin always seems to underperform statistically. For as high as he’s being drafted, you need a little more than the 17 HR, 67 RBI, and the 18 SB that he put up last season. Those are backup OF numbers only, but Upton is being taken as an anchor-type fantasy outfielder. Until he proves it, he’s overvalued. This could be the year, but pass on him as there’s too much risk involved.

Sleeper – 1B Freddie Freeman: Not really off anyone’s radar, Freeman still stays in this category because first base is so deep and full of big stats and big names. If you choose to pass those names, you can still steal Freeman and count on big, improving numbers from this youngster. 30+ HRs is likely for this season.

Bust – C Brian McCann: Remember when McCann was the top catcher drafted in fantasy? Seems like forever ago, and too many owners are still reaching for McCann for name value only. But battling injuries, his stats aren’t there to warrant. McCann will open the season on the DL again, so don’t buy into the breakout season potential of McCann. You can find any catcher like him throughout your draft. Especially at a mediocre-deep position like catcher.

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Undervalued – 1B Logan Morrison:  An absolute bust and disappointment last year, few people expect much from Morrison. He’s going undrafted in many leagues making him a great low risk/high reward candidate in the very late rounds. Morrison has multi-position eligibility and 20+ HR potential and 80+ RBI possibilities.

Overvalued – SP Ricky Nolasco: Someone had to make this list and it wasn’t going to be Giancarlo Stanton, who has tons of value, regardless of how bad the rest of the Marlins are. So Nolasco may get drafted under the silly premise of being a #1 starter and getting plenty of starts. But he’s not the Marlins you want on your squad. Read below.

Sleeper – SP Jacob Turner: The 21-year-old is the best pitcher the Marlins have. In a small audition last year, his numbers were impressive, posting a 3.38 ERA and .98 WHIP. Who wouldn’t take that? And most fantasy owners don’t know about him and don’t have him on their radar. Take him comfortably in the middle rounds as your #3/#4 fantasy starter with confidence.

Bust – OF Juan Pierre: It’s not the early 2000’s anymore. And Pierre is no longer a viable fantasy starter. Yes he stole 37 bases last year, but there are plenty of other guys who will produce those kinds of numbers and contribute in other categories.

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Undervalued – 1B Ryan Howard: It’s hard to imagine a player of Howard’s caliber listed here as undervalued, but after the season he had last year (returning from a difficult Achilles tendon injury), his stock has dropped. You can grab Howard as a high-risk bargain in many leagues with nervous owners not wanting to take the chance that Howard’s talent has diminished. Chalk last year up to getting his footing (literally) back, and expect a major uptick in his stats. Closer to his 30 HRs and 90 RBIs.

Overvalued – SP Roy Halladay: Was 2012 a mirage or a sign of things to come for Halladay? No player symbolized the Phillies underachieving, disappointing season last year, than Halladay. He won 12 games, had a 4.49 ERA and a 1.22 WHIP. Those aren’t ace numbers, and yet many owners are gambling that he’ll return to his Cy Young ways from two years ago. But at age 35, with nagging injuries creeping in, that’s a hefty gamble for someone you’ll have to draft early and count on as your top fantasy pitcher. Not worth the gamble.

Sleeper – 3B Michael Young: You have to love players with multiple position eligibility and Young qualifies at 1B, 2B and 3B. And better yet, he’s being undrafted in shallow leagues, and taken late in bigger leagues. With the names like Utley and Rollins still stealing the marquee from Young, he can be had for cheap and can still put up consistent fantasy numbers. He’s a career .300 hitter and last year, between two teams, and two leagues, still put up a respectable .277 BA and drove in nearly 70 runs.

Bust – OF Dominic Brown: Other Phillies could make this list too, but let’s stick with Brown, who had so much promise. But Brown has all the makings of the stereotypical AAAA player. Tears it up in AAA but can’t perform up to standard in the majors. His 2012 stat line was quite underwhelming at .235 and 5 HRs. The Phillies still proclaim faith in him, but hedged their bet by trading for the much safer fantasy option in Ben Revere, and are even talking up John Mayberry in the outfield. Throw in the equally overhyped Delmon Young, and the leash will be quite short for Dominic Brown. Some are hyping him up, don’t believe it.

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Undervalued – SP John Niese: The lefty put up a career-best 3.40 ERA and a solid 1.17 WHIP to showcase himself as pitcher with potential. Wins may be hard to come by on a lousy team, but it’s not always about the W’s when it comes to fantasy pitching studs.

Overvalued – 3B David Wright: Clarification: David Wright is a fantasy stud, but he’s not a top 10 or even a first-round selection, despite being the best third baseman in the NL. And now, he has back issues, which can be quite troubling. And, he’s just gotten a long-term contract, so there’s less incentive to produce. And the Mets offense is anemic and Wright will have to carry the burden. So, he’s listed here because he’s slightly overvalued, but don’t go crazy letting him slip down the draft board too much, he’s still a fantasy commodity.

Sleeper – SP Matt Harvey: Harvey got the call in early July and lived up to his top prospect billing. He had a 2.73 ERA and 70 Ks in 59 innings. Harvey is entrenched in the second rotation spot, and the only question is, how will he perform for a full season facing major league hitters?

Bust – LF Lucas Duda: Duda belongs in the AL, so he can function only as a DH. Because in the outfield he’s a defensive liability, which costs him playing time. And, his bat is not even that good to justify his errors. Duda’s career high HRs is only 15, making him undraftable.

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Undervalued – DH Adam Dunn:  You know what you’re getting with Adam Dunn. A lousy batting average and a lot of strike outs. But on the positive side, you know you’re getting nearly 40 HRs and over 90 RBIs. That type of production just can’t be found anywhere. But, because of Dunn’s flaws, and the lack of a real qualifying position (really just a DH), Dunn’s fantasy value is undervalued. But, HRs are worth the investment and Dunn won’t disappoint in that regard.

Overvalued – SP Jake Peavy: Peavy threw over 200 innings last season for the first time since 2007. And he did so producing a 3.32 ERA, giving people hope that he might be back to his Cy Young ways. But, the last time Peavy threw that many innings, he began having health issues. Now 31, Peavy could be on the cusp of a comeback, but history says otherwise, so where Peavy is being drafted, you can find other, less risky choices for your rotation.

Sleeper – LF Dayan Viciedo: Viciedo already has 20-30 HR power. Now he has a full-time job, and at his young age, only big things are expected. Viciedo is being overlooked by many fantasy owners, and that’s a mistake. Let others reach for the “name” player, and you grab one of the White Sox’s most up and coming starters.

Bust – RF Alex Rios: Rios had the numbers to make fantasy owners happy last year. Down the line, a .300+ average, 20+ HRs, 20+ steals, 90+ RBIs. That spells fantasy stud, right? Those numbers were from the fifth spot in the batting order, and his history shows that when he moves to the third spot, where he’s slated to occupy this season, those numbers nosedive. Look at his 2011 stat line and understand why Rios is a bust candidate.

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Undervalued – 1B Justin Morneau:  First base is so deep, and Morneau is by no means to be counted on to start for any fantasy team, but in some leagues, he may not even get drafted.  That’s an oversight. Morneau makes for great depth, and serves a nice fantasy role as a backup first baseman and cheap source of 20+ HRs, 70+ RBIs and a decent batting average. Don’t break the bank for him, but as a late rounder, you can do worse.

Overvalued – SP Scott Diamond: Scott Diamond is the Twins #1 starter, but is not a #1 fantasy starter by any stretch. Many owners, draft on the mindset, of “well at least he’ll get a lot of starts”. That is a flawed draft strategy and will saddle you with Diamond, who has yet to prove any amount of consistency. There’s another Twins pitcher that has much more upside (see below).

Sleeper – SP Vance Worley: The Twins obviously like Worley enough that they traded Ben Revere to the Phillies for him. Worley’s numbers have been pedestrian in the NL but his numbers should vastly improve at Target Field, as a closer look at the Sabermetric numbers of Worley shows a pitcher who doesn’t walk a lot of batters and gets a good amount of ground balls.

Bust – OF Josh Willingham: A 34-year-old, on a bad offensive team, coming off a career-year of 35 HRs and 110 RBIs really has nowhere else to go but down.  That’s what you can expect of Willingham, who has never yielded back-to-back, 140-game seasons. So, injuries and declining numbers are on the horizon for Willingham.

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If I were the Bengals GM, instead of sitting back and watching things unfold, and letting the market determine things, I become aggressive, knowing that I’ve got a young offense with glaring holes, and a young, hungry defense on the cusp of greatness. Plus, with the AFC North becoming weaker with the demise of the Steelers and the Super Bowl champs losing a lot already, now is the time. It’s a make or break year for the Bengals, that can determine long-term success, or one-year wonder status for the franchise. It’s that important for this team. With that said, if I’m GM, here’s what I do (assuming I can convince Mike Brown to blow the dust off his wallet and allow it to happen):

SAFETY
Make a run at Ed Reed or Dashon Goldson. Sign one of them, with Reed to a short-term contract and Goldson to a long-term deal. This would give the Bengals the best defensive backfield in football then, and open up the blitz-schemes for Mike Zimmer’s defense.

WIDE RECEIVER
On the offensive side, the Bengals must find a WR free agent to help expand the offense, but who fits Jay Gruden’s West Coast offense, and take pressure off AJ Green. Anquan Boldin would’ve been the exact match, but the Bengals sat on their hands, and should’ve offered up a 5th rounder to trump the Niners deal. Without Boldin, the two names that fit are Julian Edelman or Danario Alexander. Either of these WRs would make nice #2 receivers and extra targets for a young, developing offense. If they swing and miss on these two, could Jerome Simpson be a fall back option? Let’s hope it doesn’t come to that.

LINEBACKER
The last player to grab is perhaps the most important. And that’s James Harrison. Adding a proven leader, from a division rival, with Super Bowl rings and a veteran toughness, would help the young defense, at a position of weakness. Harrison could help Burfict, Johnson, and the rest of the defense become the hard-working, tough players they need to become. Plus, stealing a key player from the hated Steelers helps further. And with that, I’d let Rey Maualuga walk. He’s too inconsistent and not athletic enough to play in this scheme. But, if they do resign him, make sure Harrison is there as an example of how to be a professional linebacker.

SHORE UP THE STRIPES
The rest of free agency should be used to lock up key Bengals who are going to hit the market like Andre Smith (pivotal), Adam Jones, and Terrence Newman. Whatever non-rookie money that remains goes to long-term negotiated deals with Geno Atkins, Michael Johnson and Carlos Dunlap (in that order).

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Undervalued – 1B/3B/DH Mark Reynolds: The Indians should be called the One Trick Ponies, because their lineup is chock full of guys who bring only one skill to the table. Reynolds will knock the ball out of the yard. He’s good for 20-30 HR and around 80 RBI. After that, he will kill your team. But as a bench player or a cheap source of power, you actually could do worse. His consistent power can actually help your squad. Just know his limitations.

Overvalued – CF/RF Drew Stubbs and CF Michael Bourn: Both of these guys are one-trick ponies. In 4x4 or 5x5 leagues they’ll definitely get you a ton of steals, but will contribute next to nothing else for your fantasy squad. Don’t overpay for one category.

Sleeper – 3B Lonnie Chisenhall:  At a shallow fantasy position, you could do worse than this youngster, with tremendous upside. With the full-time gig at the hot corner his, Chisenhall can put up 20-plus homers and can even be counted on for double digit steals.

Bust – 1B Nick Swisher: Swisher has been consistent, something that’s usually a fantasy asset. The veteran has averaged 25.8 HRs during his entire career. So, why is he listed here under bust? This is the least talented team that Swisher has played on, and he’s hitting cleanup. Some of his career numbers are a result of having so much other talent and offensive weapons around him. Not the case in Cleveland where he’ll need the likes of Stubbs and Bourn to get on for him in order to have those same quality numbers. You could do worse than Swisher, but a decline is likely, so draft accordingly.

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Undervalued – RP Bruce Rondon: Moneyball subscribers generally don’t overspend on closers and fantasy owners should follow suit. One late round bargain could be Bruce Rondon, who has to first secure the closer role from the old and average Joaquin Benoit. Look for the 22-year-old Rondon will do that. His fastball is electric and he’s working on a second out pitch all spring, which would make his double-digit strikeout per nine inning stats even more amazing.

Overvalued – RF Torii Hunter: Don’t believe his 2012 numbers. This 38-year-old outfielder is way past his prime and his 92-RBI year a season ago is an anomaly that will only hype up Hunter on draft day. Let someone else have Hunter, who has even lost a step on speed and defense, bringing even less to the table.

Sleeper – SP Drew Smyly: A spring training battle is brewing for a starting role in the rotation of the Tigers. Smyly, the young strikeout artist, who fits the mold of Justin Verlander (not saying he’s as good), will battle Rick Porcello for the fourth or fifth spot in the rotation. Smyly struck out 94 batters in less than a 100 innings last season, so good money is on Smyly, but expect him to get skipped in the rotation a lot for extra rest, and if he struggles, Porcello will be waiting.

Bust – 1B Victor Martinez: Before he tore his ACL last year, a strong argument could’ve been made to put Martinez down on the bust list. Now, he’s another year older (34), and his power numbers have been declining since 2007. So, who wants a first baseman that will hit less than 20 HRs and drive in a diminishing amount of runs? And he may not even still have catcher eligibility to boot (check league rules). Pass on Martinez and let him be someone else’s problem.

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