It was like the AT&T commercial where actor Luke Wilson is in a restaurant and is having a random person text everyone in the whole country who has AT&T.  The random guy asks everyone to text him back to see just how many people have AT&T out there.  His phone starts to buzz so much it falls off of the table.  At 2:15 p.m. today, that happened to me.  My cell phone's text inbox had a life of its own and obviously something big was going on.  And much to my delight, it was the news that the Cincinnati Reds had traded their blunder from last year, Willy Taveras.

Cincinnati Reds GM Walt Jocketty knew that he could not trust manager Dusty Baker to keep Taveras on the bench this season, so he somehow traded him for not just a living, breathing human being, but a useful, living, breathing infielder.  Jocketty dumps Taveras, his $4 million contract and  infielder Adam Rosales on to the Oakland Athletics for veteran infielder Aaron Miles and a player to be named later.  The later player could be a lamppost- it does not matter.  This is grand larceny.  Taveras was one of the worst players in the Major Leagues last year both offensively (.240/ .275/ .285) and defensively and only Baker's insistence to play him was more frustrating than watching him.  He was so bad that Oakland immediately designated Taveras for assignment the moment the trade became official.

The good news does not end there.  Though the Cubs gave the A's $1 million to pay for part of Miles's 2010 salary when they traded him in December, that $1 million stays with the A's in this trade.  The Reds are on the hook for all of Miles' $2.7 contract.  Still, adding in Rosales' minimum contract leaving the books, the Reds end up saving about $1,700,000 on the deal.  They got rid of Taveras and saved money?  What is A's GM Billy Beane thinking?  Nobody could want Taveras and claim his contract or trade for it- the A's will be saddled with it.

This is now the best move of the offseason FOR THE 2010 SEASON that the Reds have made.  The other notable moves are not as important for this season; Adrolis Chapman's days of contributing to the big league will probably begin in 2011 (too many control issues right now- his walk rates in the lowly Cuban leagues were in the four to five per nine innings- yikes! ).  Recently signed shortstop Orlando Cabrera ($2 million for 2010 with a club buyout of $1 million for next year) is a slight upgrade at shortstop.  Though he can hit better than incumbent shortstop Paul Janish, he is nowhere near the fielder that Janish is. 

In fact, the reason that Cabrera signed with the Reds is that they were the only ones who offered him a shortstop job.  Not a good sign.  As long as he hits .285/ .335/ .425, he can overcome the lost defense.  These are not easy demands for the 35-year old Cabrera.  No, getting rid of the last of Dusty Baker's recruits is the biggest move.  By the way, have you noticed how quiet Baker has been this offseason and how few of Baker's "guys" (anyone with awful on- base percentage) were signed.

The trade boosts the Reds' win total from 80 to 84 in my calculations.  If they can stay relatively healthy, get anything out of Chapman, or get big years out of Homer Bailer, Jay Bruce and Johnny Cueto, it could go to 87.  How did I get that calculation?  Simple - addition by substraction.

MLB cincinnati reds, willy taveras, adam rosales, aaron miles, orlando cabrera, adrolis chapman

Just when you thought Reds outfielder Willy Taveras could do no more harm to the Reds...

He is back for Season Two of his contract otherwise known as "Nightmare in Centerfield, The Sequel".  It stars Taveras as the antagonist, Reds Manager Dusty Baker as his sidekick, and hopeful centerfielder Drew Stubbs as the protagonist who cannot win.  The only other possible hero is the mad scientist who created Taveras- Reds GM Walt Jocketty, and he seems to be gagged and bound and locked away under surveillance by Bean Counter Bob Castellini.  Is there any hope for the 2010 Cincinnati Reds?

Taveras is not even playing- nobody is even playing- and he is hurting the Reds badly in a number of ways.  First and foremost, is his $4 million contract for this year.  As a result of this commitment, the Reds have been unable to make any moves besides overpaying declining catcher Ramon Hernandez $3 million.  In fact, the Reds had to decline an arbitration offer to productive outfielder Jonny Gomes because they could not afford the estimated $1.75 million he was probably going to command in arbitration.  The Reds basically have made two separate decisions over the last calendar year to go with Taveras (.240/ .275!!!!!!/ .285!!!!!!) and Hernandez (his line of .258/ .336/ .362 was warped by a blistering hot April and May) over Gomes (.267/ .338/ .541 with 20 HRs in just 281 at bats).

Instead of handing Hernandez that contract, what they should have done- and technically can still do- is sign gold glove second baseman Orlando Hudson (.283/ .357/ .417) to a two- year, $5.5 million contract and move Brandon Phillips to shortstop.  This would have been a huge upgrade at shortstop over Rafeal Belliard- like Paul Janish (.211/ .296/ .305).  They could have signed a different free agent catcher to pair with Ryan Hannigan like defensive whiz Henry Blanco (now with the Mets) or left handed hitting Brian Schneider (now with the Phillies) or once promising Josh Bard (.230/ .293/ .361 in 2009, but in 2007 was .285/ .364/ .404).  The upgrade at shortstop would be significantly better than the Hernandez upgrade (term used loosely here) at catcher.   Or, dream case scenario, some moronic GM (Jim Bowden- where are you?) takes Taveras off your hands and you can afford Hudson, Bard and Gomes.  So next time someone declares that a ballplayer is, "worth a shot", point them to Exhibit A- Wily Taveras, who was not worth a shot because his presence alone is keeping the Reds from upgrading at other positions.

Another part of his presence is his roster spot.  As a result of the Reds' commitment to Taveras, he took the roster spot of Ben Jukich, a minor league pitcher taken with the 20th pick in the Rule 5 Draft by the St. Louis Cardinals.  Jukich had a 4.10 E.R.A. in 123 innings with Triple- A Louisville.  That may not be flashy, but these numbers are; he had 106 strikeouts with only 40 walks and had a groundball to flyball ratio of 1.36.  The Cards plan to convert the lefty into a long or middle reliever.  He may or may not pan out for the Cards, but if he does, Jukich is another Taveras casualty.

Lastly, and this is the scariest part of it all... he could be your Opening Day 2010 centerfielder.  Dusty Baker pushed Walt Jocketty to bring Taveras here.  Baker gave him a crazy amount of chances to prove Baker was correct to recruit him.  And now, the scenario could play out again in March of 2010... stubborn manager somehow back again wanting to justify himself... in just 40 Spring Training at bats, Taveras has some infield hits, bleeders, bloopers and seeing- eye groundballs and he pads his average to .268... Drew Stubbs, on the other hand, hits rockets right at fielders and come away hitting .175 in 30 Spring Training at bats... Taveras makes a diving catch and crashes into a wall- "Wow, he has a new attitude!"... Stubbs easily makes those same catches without diving or crashing and rubs Dusty the wrong way.  Its very possible.  In fact, its probable.

Signing Taveras was the worst move that any major league club made last season.  Small markets teams such as the Reds cannot afford to do that.  They do not have the depth, the finances, and in this case, the managerial prowess to overcome that.  You might have thought that Corey Patterson would have taught them a few lessons.  The Reds must change their free agent philosophy.  They must find the anti- Taveras; a player who can actually get on base and field his position at least adequately.  Some current free agents like Hudson, Gomes, Bard, Ryan Garko, and Kelly Johnson fit that description.  But then again, those guys will all be victims of Willy Taveras.

MLB cincinnati reds, willy taveras

John Fay of the Cincinnati Enquirer recently wrote an article concentrating on reasons for hope for the Cincinnati Reds in 2010.  The one- sided look at the Reds seemed promotional and, for long- suffering Reds fans, repetitive.  The mainstream print media that follows the Reds rarely gives a realistic approach at the present and future (and it too often paints the past with rainbows and pots of gold).  The truth is, the Reds do have some hope for 2010, but there are some major obstacles to overcome- obstacles that most good teams do not have to deal with.  So as the 2009 season comes to a close, here are a realist's top seven reasons to fill your Reds mug half- full, followed by the top seven reasons to pour out the contents of your Reds mug.

Top Seven Positives for the 2010 Reds Season:

7.  Though bullpens are the most unpredictable group on any Major League team from year- to- year, this group seems a strong bet to be amongst the NL's best again next year.  Nick Masset (1.03 WHIP, 70 Ks in 76 IP), Arthur Rhodes (1.07 WHIP, 48 Ks in 53.33 IP) and Francisco Cordero (1.32 WHIP, 58 K in 66.66 IP), in that order, would star in anyone's bullpen.  Carlos Fisher, Daniel Ray Herrera, and Jared Burton are solid, promising setup men who are cheap, just like they are supposed to be.

6.  The 27-13 finish in the last 40 games is pretty impressive.  Sure, it seemed like they played the Pirates and Astros for half of those games, but aren't they supposed to beat bad teams?  Do the critics want them to lose those games?  At the same time, it was the Pirates and Astros and those teams were fielding minor league lineups that would lose consistently in Triple- A; as a result, it's hard to measure just how good Drew Stubbs, Wladimir Balentien, and Darnell McDonald are.  Remember, Joe Nunnally and Chris Stines had hot Septembers too.

5.  Jay Bruce had a huge last month.  Going into the last weekend of the season, in which he continued to sit the bench for long stretches (?!?!),  Bruce was mashing at a .353/ .463/ .765 clip since his return from the DL.  The Reds still need a big bat in the middle of the lineup (Scott Rolen is not that bat) and Bruce is the only hope for that answer.

4.  The Reds' defense is vastly improved from the start of the year.  Edwin Encarnacion, the starting third basemen on Opening Day, has been the worst fielding 3B by all advanced defensive metrics every year for the last THREE years!  Alex Gonzalez had lost a step or two at shortstop and Willy Taveras, Manager Dusty Baker's personal recruit to play center field, showed that he was almost as awful in the field as he was at the plate.  They have been replaced by Rolen, Paul Janish, and Stubbs respectively and the comparison is like night and day.  Not to be overlooked is Jay Bruce's stellar outfield play.  If he had not been injured and missed almost two months, he would probably have led the league in outfield assists and deserved a gold glove.

3.  Its probable that Homer Bailey has turned the corner and become the star pitcher that everyone envisioned for years.  Every contender needs a hammer and with Aaron Harang no longer in that role, Bailey seems ready to lead the Reds in their biggest games.  With Bailey, Bronson Arroyo, Johnny Cueto, and Harang as the probable #1 through #4 starters, the Reds rival the Cardinals for the best starting staff in the NL Central going into the offseason.

2.  The emergence of young players such as Bruce, Bailey, Joey Votto, Balentien, Herrera, Fisher, Stubbs, Janish, Ryan Hanigan and a few others have tremendously upgraded the overall talent of this roster over the past year.  Compare those names to these winners from 2008:  Corey Patterson, Andy Phillips, Scott Hatteberg, Norris Hopper, Danny Richar, Ryan Freel, Jolbert Cabrera, Gary Majewski, and Matt Belisle.  Sure some of these guys played sparingly (Phillips and Hatteberg), but some were counted on to play major roles in 2008:  Freel, Majewski, Belisle and, of course, Patterson.  Yikes!  The Reds are much deeper today.

1.  The NL Central is weak and may be weaker next year.  This season, Pittsburgh proceded to build for the future by trading bad players for more bad players.  There is no light appearing in their tunnel yet.  Houston has an aging roster and the worst minor league system in all of baseball- not a good combination.  Chicago is similar to Houston; they have an aging roster, a thin minors, but add on some expensive contracts that hang like albatrosses in the form of Milton Bradley, Kosuke Fukudome and Carlos Zambrano.  Milwaukee may have the worst starting pitching staff in the NL this side of the Potomic River.  That leaves the Reds and Cardinals.  The Cardinals cannot resign Matt Holliday, Mark DeRosa, Troy Glaus, Rick Ankiel, Joel Pineiro and Todd Wellemeyer- all free agents.  Their defections will hurt, but only Holliday is irreplaceable.  If they re- sign him, the Reds are playing for the Wild Card.

Top Seven Negatives for the 2010 Reds Season:

7.  Scott Rolen's age has affected his hitting.  His power numbers are down.  Since 2006, when he slugged .518 for the Cardinals, he has slugged .398, .431 and .401 in the second half for the Reds (though he slugged .476 with the Blue Jays before he was traded).  His leadership and defense are still outstanding, but he should hit in the #2 spot in the order now because he is a different hitter.  This may not be a problem on most teams, but our inept manager will miscast him and therefore, underuse him in the fifth slot.

6.  Edison Volquez is out of action until next July and there is no satisfactory candidate to be the fifth starter.  Justin Lehr is a good #8 starter so he should be signed to a minor league contract.  Micah Ownings is not a major league pitcher or hitter.  Matt Maloney is possible, but inspires no confidence.  Triple- A pitcher Travis Wood (1.21 WHIP, 32 Ks in 48.66 IP) is probably the best answer.

5.  Willy Taveras is under contract for one more year.  It is easy for us to say that Reds owner Bob Castellini should eat the $4 million- its not our money.  Odds are that Taveras is back for 2010 and, combined with Manager Dusty Baker's affection for him, its possible he may still be starting in CF and batting first.  We can only pray that Drew Stubbs does not slump in Goodyear, Arizona or GM Walt Jocketty takes the Taveras toy away from little Dusty.  Early odds of Taveras starting on Opening Day:  2:1.

4.  The Reds Minor Leagues are as thin as they have been since the barren years of the Jim Bowden regime.  Some of it is just natural; you do not graduate talent like Bruce, Votto, Bailey and Stubbs and maintain lofty talent rankings.  But some of it is poor drafting.  There are no impact players of the ilk of Bruce and Bailey in the entire system.  Yonder Alonzo is the closest with Yorman Rodriguez, newly drafted Billy Hamilton, and 2009 ninth- round steal Brian Pearl having some underdog possibilities.  There are solid prospects like Todd Frazier, Chris Heisey, Juan Francisco, Ezequiel Infante and Zach Cozart and arguably one or two others, but then the talent falls off a cliff.

3.  Either shortstop or catcher needs to be upgraded for next year.  It is hard to have three sinkholes (including the pitcher) in any lineup, particularly when the moron making the lineup will pencil one sinkhole in the #2 slot.  Janish batted a miserable .211/ .296/ .305 in 256 at bats.  Ryan Hanigan, the likely starter next year, batted .263/ .361/ .331 in 251 at bats, but those numbers were inflated by a hot start to the year.  Both are excellent defensive players and deserve to be on the roster, but only one can start on a NL team.  A trade for a catcher who can get on base at a .350 clip or moving Brandon Phillips to shortstop and signing Orlando Hudson to play second base are the two best options.

2.  Dusty Baker's lineup skills are in a unverse all by themselves and that universe is Bizarro World.  This column has criticized Baker over the last two years and last Sunday, Baseball Prospectus took their turn roasting Baker.  Now the ball is back in our court.  To his credit, the man has fantastic people skills.  His stories and memories have won over the local press so much so that they refuse to expose the man for the fraudulent manager that he is.  To borrow a stat from Baseball Prospectus... Baker's combined 2009 number one and number two hitters in the lineup hit .245/ .301/ .345!!!!  Staggering.  Playing Taveras and then batting him leadoff was bad enough, but hitting Janish second?  How did the Reds win 78 games?  Any replacement for Baker would be an upgrade, including my son's Kindergarten teacher.

1.  The Reds' 2010 payroll is as flexible as Rush Limbaugh on the health care debate.  Cordero ($12 million), Harang ($12.5 million), Arroyo ($11 million) and Rolen ($11 million) will make up around two- thirds of the total payroll, which should be roughly $70 million.  Add on Phillips ($6 million), Taveras ($4 million), Mike Lincoln ($2.5 million) and Rhodes ($2 million) and $61 million of the $70 million payroll is already allocated.  With only Phillips and Rhodes being appealing in a trade (but unlikely to go)... ladies and gentlemen, meet your 2010 Cincinnati Reds.  They have needs are little means to satisfy them.

MLB cincinnati reds, 2010 cincinnati reds, homer bailey, jay bruce, edinson volquez

It was pathetic, yet predictable, that we recently heard the Cincinnati Reds blame their awful season on injuries.  This excuse is flat out wrong.  This season's fate was very predictable well before the injury bug appeared.  It was easy to foresee doom after many, many poor decisions made by the Front Office over the last three years.  Here are the Top Ten Worst Front Office Decisions that led to this Reds debacle that we currently have.  But before that... the gloating:  there is no hindsight/ 20-20  judgement on any of these moves- every one of these moves was criticized by yours truly WHEN THEY HAPPENED.  On with the list...

10.  Signing Alex Gonzalez to a three- year, $14.5 million dollar contract:  Quit complaining that he never played.  When he did play, he was awful.  He was hitting .207/ .254/ .295 this year.  He contributed more last year by NOT playing at all.

9.  Trading Edwin Encarnancion, Josh Roenicke, and Zach Stewart to Toronto for 3B Scott Rolen:  Sure Rolen is a major upgrade over Encarnacion, but he is in his mid- 30s, injury- prone, expensive, and only signed for one more year.  Giving up two of the five prospects for Rolen was a steal for the Blue Jays and a ditch digger for the Reds.

8.  Signing Corey Patterson to a one- year deal to play CF in 2008:  Dusty Baker campaigned to get Patterson and he stubbornly gave him 344 at bats to hit .207/ .254/ .295 and drag the Reds down.  And Baker wondered why people thought Patterson was dating his daughter.

 7.  Signing Edwin Encarnacion to a two- year contract worth $7.6 million dollars:  This led to GM Walt Jocketty having to throw in Roenicke and Stewart to get the Blue Jays to take Encarnacion off of the Reds' hands.  If the Reds decline him arbitration, he is a free agent, the Reds still have Roenicke and Stewart, the Reds are still in 5th place, but they have a brighter future.

6.  Drafting Yonder Alonso instead of Gordon Beckham in the first round of the 2008 Draft:  One of the Reds' biggest holes to fill this off- season is shortstop.  There is no capable shortstop on the roster or in their minor leagues (except present second baseman Brandon Phillips).  That would not be a problem if they would have taken Beckham, who was scooped up immediately with the next pick by the White Sox.  Beckham is presently hitting .299/ .373/ .470 at the Major League level.  Instead, the Reds have a guy pushing Joey Votto, one of their few indepensible players.

5.  Trading Adam Dunn:  Public pressure trumped logic and production and the Reds sent Dunn to Arizona for peanuts.  Now, Dunn plays first base for the Naitonals and is hitting .285/ .417/ .580 while the Reds roll out Lance Nix and Johnny Gomes into leftfield.  Gomes is a good backup for the Reds and Nix is... a good backup in Triple- A.

4.  Signing Willy Taveras to a two- year contract worth $6.25 million:  What made anyone think Taveras was a major leaguer?  His history, his statistics, and his past teams' transactions involving him should have kept Jocketty (and Baker- he lobbied for Taveras) away.  It kept every other MLB team away.  The Reds outbid themselves for a Triple- A speedster.  They must eat his contract for next year and let Drew Stubbs play center field every day.  Speaking of Stubbs...

3.  Drafting Drew Stubbs instead of SP Tim Lincecum:  Stubbs is an excellent defender who can steal a base and has a great baseball makeup.  He is not an impact player.  He may struggle to hit .280 or get on- base more than .340.  A huge upgrade over Taveras- absolutely, but he is not Lincecum.  Drafting Lincecum would have given the Reds a #1 starter the past three years and would have made a difference of 8 or 10 more wins in the standings.  He would have brought more fans to the park, which would, in turn, bring more money into the Front Office, which would mean more money to spend on payroll, international signings, etc.

2.  Signing Francisco Cordero to a four- year, $47 million contract:  If you are the Yankees, Mets or the Red Sox, you can pay your closer $12 million a year.  Almost every else realizes that closers grow on trees so this is a great area to save money.  Todd Coffey (if he were still here), Arthur Rhodes, Bill Bray (last year), Jared Burton (last year), and David Weathers (up until last week) would have produced almost the same results for a lot less money.  With this available cash, the Reds could have spent on Adam Dunn or a real center fielder like Tori Hunter.

1.  Hiring Dusty Baker:  The guy is an ace with the media and has many of them snowed, but he cannot fool all of us.  He is the absolute worst manager AT ANY LEVEL when it comes to making out a lineup.  He lobbied for Patterson (.238 OBP) and Taveras (.276 OBP and no power) and then played them more than anyone else would have while also batting them at the top of the lineup.  In the two- hole, he used Alex Gonzalez (.254 OBP) and more recenltly, Paul Janish (.291 OBP).  What we have here is stubborn idiocy.  Joey Votto is going to hit .315 with 25 home runs in about 500 at bats and only have 80 RBI because nobody was ever on base in front of him.

Honorable Mention:  Drafting Devon Mesoraco who is looking like a huge bust.

Do not let the Reds fool you.  They - not the injury bug- are responsible for another losing season.  Is it fixable?  Stay tuned... I have some ideas.

MLB cincinnati reds, alex gonzalez, edwin encarnacion, corey patterson, yonder alonso, adam dunn, willy taveras, drew stubbs, francisco cordero, dusty baker, devon mesoraco

The Cincinnati Reds' midterm report card was mailed home this past week.  Let's go to the mailbox...

Manager, Dusty Baker:  F... His inexplicable insistance to play Willy Taveras and bat him first merits a pink slip.  This move alone has probably cost the Reds multiple games this year and it is not going to change any time soon.  Baker is a stubborn man who has consistently done this in the past with such notables as Neifi Perez and Corey Patterson.  He is who is he is and nobody is going to change that.  It is frustrating to watch his lineups flounder and it will lead him onto the same road to the Managerial Graveyard that Ray Knight and Bob Boone took out of here.

General Manager, Walt Jocketty:  C... Although Dusty Baker pushed for the Taveras signing, it was ultimately Jocketty's decision to sign the man who has cost the Reds so dearly.  The second biggest mistake he made was not signing or trading for a right handed bat, but there was not much on the market.  On the plus side, he did grab Johnny Gomes and Lance Nix for the bench- two solid moves.  Re-signing David Weathers and bringing in Arthur Rhodes were good moves.  The Ramon Hernandez addition has been a big improvement over last year's catchers.

Chris Buckley, Scouting Director:  C... The Reds' draft in June was conservative.  In the first round, there were plenty of high- ceiling, high school pitchers available, but the Reds were scared of their price tags and went with Mike Leake, a college pitcher, who should have been drafted about 12 to 15 picks later.  That has been Buckley's strategy for most of the past few years.  The lone exception was the 2007 pick of high school catcher Devin Mesoraco who has been nothing short of a disappointment.  Outside of Leake, the best two picks amongst the Reds 51 selections were second- round pick Billy Hamilton from Taylorsville HS (MS) who is generally regarded as the best athelte in the state of Mississippi and Cal State Fullerton outfielder Josh Fellhauer (7th round) who can just plain hit.

Ramon Hernandez, C/ 1B:  C... Filled in admirably at first base when Joey Votto was on the DL, but has been outplayed in almost every facet of the game by his backup.

Ryan Hanigan, C:  A... With a line of .338/ .429/ .407, he deserves to play a lot more, but that will not happen with his present manager (do the Assistant Coaches say anything to Baker about his lineups or are they just as oblivious?).  His defense behind the plate is the best Reds fans have seen in a long, long time.

Joey Votto, 1B: A-... If he had not missed over 30 games with stress disorder, his grade would have probably been an A+.  He is easily the Reds' best player and is one of their best hitters of this lost decade.  It is too bad so few teammates are on base when he is hitting.  I wonder if there is another three- hole hitter in MLB who hits with less people on base than Joey Votto.

Brandon Phillips, 2B: A- ... At seond base, Phillips is an elite player.  If he played any corner position, he would be an average player.  He would be a better hitter if he pulled the ball more and got rid of his inside- out swing that creates flyballs to RF.  He is one of the worst outside- pitch hitters I've ever seen.

Jerry Hairston, U: D... His specialty, on- base percentage, is now his albatross.  A .307 OBP, while easily beating Taveras' OBP, does not cut it if you do not have power.  I would sure like to see him steal more bases.

Paul Janish, SS: D... Janish is a great fielder- as good as Alex Gonzalez, but he cannot hit major league pitching.  He shows no sign of getting better either.

Alex Gonzalez, SS: F... The Reds signed Gonzalez to a three- year, $15 million contract in winter of 2006- 2007 and have almost nothing to show for it.  He had 393 at bats in 2007, none in 2008, and 182 unproductive at bats this year.  His pre- injury stat line of .214/ .256/ .302 would find him cut on most MLB teams, but it found him batting second for Dusty Baker!  Unbelieveable.

Edwin Encarnacion: 3B, F... This grade may change the most in the season's second half.  Look for Encarnacion to be the second most productive Red over the next three months now that he's fully healthy.  It would be nice if his manager batted him fourth or fifth instead of seventh or eighth.  Unbelieveable.

Adam Rosales, U: F... He has won the hearts of Reds fans, but he is really is not even a major league sub.  His numbers are worse than Taveras':  .198/ .285/ .282.

Drew Sutton, U: I... He has not had enough at bats with the Reds yet, but his patience at the plate has been impressive.  He better be careful with that patience, that will get him buried on the bench on this club.  Unbeliveable.

Laynce Nix, OF: C... Nix is a great bench player, but not a starter.  The league has begun to catch up to him and his numbers have recently declined.  He should never, ever, face a left handed pitcher.

Jonny Gomes, OF: B-... He is very similar to Nix.  He is not quite as good on defense, but is an good platoon player from the right hand side.

Chris Dickerson, OF: B-... He plays superior defense to Taveras, runs the bases as well as Taveras (except he needs to get dirty on pick off throws!), has more power than Taveras, and reaches base far more often than Taveras.  As a result, Dusty Baker plays Taveras.  Unbelieveable. 

Jay Bruce, OF:  C+ ... Sure, his offensive numbers are disappointing and he will now be out of the lineup until September, but his defense has progressed such that he is one of the better defensive outfielders in the league and his power numbers are still alive and kicking.

Willy Taveras, OF: F- ... What is worse than his .243/ .285/ .294 line from the leadoff spot?  How about another year of it?  He is signed through 2010!  His defense has been just as bad as his hitting- how can a centerfielder be tied for third on a team in errors?  He consistently gets terrible breaks on balls hit behind him.  Finally, he has only stolen 17 bases this year is just 22 attempts.  Why is he not running?  Watch his running habits- he rarely steals within five pitches on getting on base.  He has a negative value and is not a major leaguer.

Aaron Harang, SP: C- ... He has never been the same since Baker used him in extended relief in San Diego last season.  He has been inconsistent, but not as inconsistent as...

Bronson Arroyo, SP: C ... His numbers (5.07 E.R.A., 1.45 WHIP, 21 HRs allowed in 119 innings) are somewhat misleading.  He has had a few outings in which he was awful, but at the same time, he is on a 16- inning scoreless streak that could signal another second- half surge for Arroyo.

Edison Volquez, SP:  D ... The Verducci Effect is real.  I noted that Volqez qualified for it after last year.  Hopefully, you fantasy players listened and stayed away from him at your drafts.  If you did not pay attention, here is that rule again:  A major league pitcher who is under 25 should not throw 30 more innings than the previous season's total (unless there was an injury).  If he does so, cue the D.L. for the following season.

Micah Owings, SP:  C+ ... I'm not sure Owings will ever get more than a C+.  He is just not that good.  He is a major league #5 starter who can hit. 

Johnny Cueto, SP: B+ ... His two most recent starts have been terrible and have ruined some great first half numbers.  At the same time, he had been one of the luckiest pitchers in the Majors up to that time at stranding runners on base.  That eventually catches up to people, just ask Jimmy Haynes.

Homer Bailey, SP:  C- ... The big reason he was having so much success in Triple- A recently was his newly found pitch, the split fingered fastball.  So why is he not throwing it much here?  Is it because hitters here will lay off of the pitch?  If so, his recent success will be mixed in with poor outings and he will only be a back- end rotation thrower.  Better control of his fastball is the other key.

The Bullpen:  A- ... The strength of this team is led by overpaid All- Star Francisco Cordero and the dominant Arthur Rhodes.  David Weathers has not been nearly as bad as some may think (3.26 E.R.A, 1.22 WHIP, 14 BB, 19 K in 30.3 innings).  He has just blown up in some close games.  Nick Masset has been a pleasant surprise and youngsters Josh Roenicke, Daniel Ray Herrera, Robert Manuel and Carlos Fisher have helped and should contribute for years (especially Herrera).  Jared Burton has been the big disappointment here.

Overall:  C- ... It could have been a lot better.  The season seems to be slowly slipping away here in July.  It feels like an inevitable breakup with a girlfriend- you know the bad news is coming, but you want to avoid it.  As the Trade Deadline approaches over the next two weeks, the Reds should certainly be sellers and not buyers.  They do not match up with the Brewers and Cardinals and still will not match up after adding a bat.  If they added a bat, got some positive consistency from the starting pitching, fired a manager, and cut a centerfielder then hope would still shine, but that is not going to happen.

MLB reds, cincinnati reds, dustay baker, walt jocketty, chris buckley, ramon hernandez, ryan hanigan, brandon phillips, jerry hairston, paul janish, alex gonzalez, adam rosales, drew sutton, laynce nix, jonny gomes, chris dickerson, jay bruce, willy taveras, aaron harang, bronson arroyo, edinson volquez, micah owings, johnny cueto, homer bailey

The rumors, whispers, and contract feelers are in full motion for the MLB Draft tonight and one particular report caught my eye.  As a result, I want a mulligan on one of my draft hopefuls, Alex White, for the Reds at #8 overall.  A recent report from Baseball Prospectus questions White's desire to compete and, after watching the Cincinnati Bengals for the past 18 years, that is good enough reason to remove him from my list.  In his place goes:

My pick: Mike Leake, RHP, ASU:  Leake reminds me a lot of Tim Lincecum in that his size scares people off and yet, he still dominates.  Leake actually has a better E.R.A. than Stephen Strasburg (1.23 to 1.32) while playing against better competition.  He could help any major league team by 2011.

Probable pick:  Aaron Crow, RHP, Independent League:  The Reds drafted some high-risk high school players with big ceilings in the middle of this decade, but have settled on experienced college players the past few years under the leadership of Scouting Director Chris Buckley.  That trend will continue today as they take a safe pick in Crow, who will be an above average major league pitcher.

Minor Leagues, MLB reds, mlb draft, alex white, mike leake, aaron crow

Today, Major League Baseball moves its draft to the big stage- live television.  While it will never generate the same glory and hype of its sister drafts in the NFL and NBA, the MLB Draft has attracted more attention over the last ten years for several reasons:  1.)  teams' increased reliance on the farm system, 2.) the explosion of the internet and 3.) teams have more reliable information that seemingly has led to more reliable picks. 

For the Cincinnati Reds, post Jim Bowden nightmare days, the draft has been the reason for the recent revival.  Jay Bruce, Homer Bailey, Yonder Alonso, and Drew Stubbs all were recent #1 picks and all look to be contributors to pulling the dream from a perpetual losing cycle.  (The other post- Bowden #1 pick, Devin Mesorasco, looks to be a huge flop.)  So who is this year's crucial Reds pick?  Its a complete guess and is not worth the time.  But a wish list of players to avoid and players to crave at #9 overall is a task worth taking.  So we start with an asterisk... the Reds have no chance of selecting wunderkid Stephen Strasburg or even North Carolina's Dustin Ackley so let's not even consider them...

PLAYERS TO AVOID
1.  Kyle Gibson, RHP, Missouri:  In Baseball America's mock draft from last Friday, they had the Reds taking Gibson.  This would be a shock unless the Reds have been asleep the past month.  Gibson's velocity has dropped to the mid 80s.  The Missouri coaching staff claims its forearm tightness and nothing to worry about.  Well, that diagnosis seems to be the preamble to major shoulder problems and spending $6- $7 million on probable shoulder problems does not sound like a sound investment.

2.  Aaron Crow, RHP, Fort Worth Cats:  The Reds almost took Crow last year, but passed him on down to Bowden and the Nationals who did not sign him.  Crow is pitching well in the Independent League, but there is not a single scouting report out there that thinks he is a potential #1 or #2 starter.

3.  Bobby Borchering, 3B, HS:  Sure, this kid has a high ceiling and is one of the best high school position players in the draft, but he plays 3B and the Reds are loaded in the Minors at that position.

WATCH DRAFT ONLINE

PLAYERS TO HOPE FOR
1.  Donavan Tate, OF, HS:  Many outlets have him as the best athlete in the draft.  He probably will not last until #9. but his agent, the Devil himself, Scott Boras, may scare some teams away.

2.  Tyler Matzek, LHP, HS:  There is a glut of highly regarded high school pitchers in this draft.  Matzek just recently moved to the front of this pack.

3.  Grant Green, SS, USC:  His performance this year has dropped his stock slightly from #2 overall to a mid- first rounder.  Still, he is, by far, the best shortstop available and shortstop is a position of need for the Reds and that is putting it mildly.

4.  Jacob Turner, RHP, HS:  The hard- throwing righty is running neck and neck with Matzek for the distinction of first high school pitcher picked.  He has a smooth delivery, which is always a health bonus.  He is also represented by the Devil so he may drop to the Reds.

5.  Alex White, RHP, UNC:  College pitchers have more polish, more years of health on their arms, and they can start at higher levels of the Minors.  Alex White could help the Reds by late 2010 or early 2011. 

MLB reds, mlb draft, kyle gibson, aaron crow, bobby borchering, donavan tate, tyler matzek, grant green, jacob turner, alex white

More Jim Bowden from loyal reader Stephen Cassady, Baseball America:

It turns out that Nationals shortstop prospect Esmailyn Gonzalez isn’t 19. Or that is he is Esmailyn Gonzalez for that matter.

Instead, sources have told SI.com that Gonzalez is actually 23 and that his real name is Carlos Alvarez Daniel Lugo.

Gonzalez was BA’s No. 10 Nationals prospect entering this season, which will be his third since singing a controversial, $1.4 million bonus out of the Dominican Republic. But given the revelations about his age, Gonzalez certainly would not have made BA’s Nationals Top 10 list.

COMPLETE ARTILCE

Amazing!!

MLB nationals, jim bowden, esmailyn gonzalez, carlos alvarez daniel lugo

This article has a different Reds spin to it...

In light of the Cincinnati Bengals' idiotic move to slap the franchise tag on their kicker, Shane Graham, I was asked if Mike Brown was a worse General Manager than Washington Nationals' GM, Jim Bowden.  There is no hesitation to this answer... its Bowden by a landslide.  Here are ten reasons why:

1.  Bowden has been investigated by MLB for illegal activities in Latin American signings.  In other words, they suspected he was skimming bonus money to international players or allowing it to happen.

2.  It is universally agreed upon that the Nationals have one of the worst farm systems in all baseball (sound familiar Reds fans?).  To add insult to injury, they did not sign their first round draft pick from 2009, Missouri RHP Aaron Crow.

3.  Attendance at their brand new ballpark plummetted as the year wore on and their TV and radio ratings were disappointing.

4.  Bowden could not bring free agent hometown slugger, Mark Teixeira, back to Washington despite offering $20 million more than anyone else.

5.  Bowden signed Adam Dunn, easily their best player now, to a two- year, $20 million contract when the next best offer was one- year at $5 million.  He bid against himself and had to grossly outbid himself to get Dunn to join his best friend, Austin Kearns, in Washington.

6.  As it stands right now, Bowden has spent the following on his starting pitching (numbers refer to 2009 contracts and are in the millions of dollars):

• Scott Olsen  $2.8 million
• John Lannan  $500K
• Daniel Cabrera  (picked up on waivers last month)  $2.6million
• Shawn Hill  $775K
• Odalis Perez  (signed to a minor league deal) $750K
  

Summary:  Most teams in the Major Leagues would have none of these guys in their rotations.  The Nationals are like salmon swimming upstream as they are going against all logic and spending the least amount possible on their starting staff... $7.425 million.

7.  So maybe they saved on the starting rotation in order to spend big bucks on a top- notch bullpen.  Let's check it out.  The following are the Nationals' likely bullpen all- stars and their salaries:

• Joel Hanrahan $500K
• Steven Shell  $500K
• Saul Rivera  $500K
• Michael Hinckley $500K
• Jason Bergman  $750K
• Terrell Young (Rule 5 pick from the Reds) $400K
• Matt Chico  $500K

Summary:  Who are these guys?  Tim Costo and Greg Tubbs are more memorable Reds than these hacks will be in Washington.  Will any be in the Majors in two years?  Their salaries add up to $3.65 million.  That would be a total of $11.075 for the entire forgettable pitching staff.

8.  Maybe these salaries are excuseable if the franschise is cutting costs everywhere, a la the Florida Marlins every four years.  No sensible General Manager would spend $40 million on the position players and forget about the pitching staff.  No GM would neglect the most important part of the recipe for winning in baseball... would he?  For those that have had enough pain for one article, turn away now...

LF:
Adam Dunn $10 million
Josh Willingham  $1.5 million (arbitration eligible)
Wily Mo Pena  $2 million
--total:  $13.5 on left fielders (could be more depending on Willingham)

CF:
Lastins Milledge  $500K
Willie Harris  $1.5 million
Corey Patterson (you read that correctly) $500K
--total:  $2.5 million on center fielders

RF:
Elijah Dukes  $500K
Austin Kearns $8 million
--total:  $8.5 for right fielders

IF & C:
Nick Johnson, 1B  $5.5 million
Dmitri Young, 1B  $5 million
Ronnie Belliard, 2B/ 1B  $1.9 million
Anderson Hernandez, 2B  $500K
Christian Guzman, SS  $8 million
Ryan Zimmerman, 3B  $500K
Jesus Flores, C  $500K
Javier Valentin, C  $500K
--total:  $22.4 million for this group

Summary:  Not all of these position players will initially make the team-  Dmitri Young being the most likely candidate to see Triple- A.  But his contract is guarenteed so these numbers are pretty accurate and that means... the Nationals are spending $46.9 million on their position players.  Absolutely mindboggling.  How could a roster be constructed like this?  Their defense is awful.  Picture Dunn in left, Milledge, a career right fielder in center, and Pena in right.  There are better high school outfields.  This makes their neglected pitching staff even worse and realistically, the staff should break records... as in "worst E.R.A. of all- time, most HRs allowed in one season, most walks in one season, etc."

9.  Nationals fans are trapped in a vicious circle.  Their Major League team will lose 100 games.  The minor leagues have very little talent from consistently poor drafts and almost no productive foreign scouting.  Free agents have to be drastically overpaid to come there.  This spiral downwards is hard to break, particularly when there are no signs it will stop.  Just as it took seven to eight years to recoup from Bowden's Reign of Terror in Cincinnati, it will take the same in Washington once he is fired.  Speaking of Cincinnati...

10.  The Reds were terrible when Bowden was in Cincinnati from 1992 to 2003 (except for 1994, 1995 and the lucky year of 1999).  The people he employed and trusted made bad decision after bad decision that sent the Reds into the vicious cycle that was just mentioned.  So what has Bowden done is his new surroundings in Washington?  He brought those same people with him and look where they are now.  And just how many people did he bring?  Thanks to our Getsportsinfo.com researcher, Todd Cassady, we supply the daunting list of former Reds that have been with the Nationals is some capacity since Bowden took over:

So Bengal fans are depressed after another inexplicable Mike Brown manuever.  They have had 18 years of depression with one exception.  I say at least there has been some hope at times.  At least, there have been .500 seasons and some talent is build from.  Sure, Benglas have made enough stupid moves to write a book (Akili Smith, Dave Klinger, Big Duddy, Chris Henry, etc.), but they also have experienced a lot of bad luck too (David Pollack, Ki-jana Carter, a strong division, etc.).  Bowden has disassembled talented teams and kept them down.  He has not been unlucky, he has been an idiot.  He gets my nod for King Idiot and thank goodness he no longer is employed by the Reds.  Which brings me to my final point... how is he employed by the Nationals?

MLB reds, nationals, jim bowden

Say it ain't so Walt.  The Reds cannot be finished with their off- season plan.  There must have been an oversight in the general vacinity between centerfield and the leftfield line.  Can't they put Chris Dickerson in left field?  He is an unproven, but probable fourth or fifth outfielder who may be better than starting center fielder, Willy Taveras, but that says as much as Paris Hilton on any given day.  Can Jerry Hairston Jr. play left field?  Its possible, but, in all likelihood, he will be playing shortstop because there is no indication that Alex Gonzalez will be healthy enough to play there this year.  Even if Gonzalez is healthy enough to play, the money here says that his mobility is severely hampered by his injury.  So what is the answer to the left field problem (usually one of the easiest spots to fill)?  There must be some answers still out there or this team's offense will land it squarely in fourth place at the absolute best.  Fear not, there are some options available and here they are, in order of preference...

Plan A:  Sign the controversial Manny Ramirez to a two- year $40 million contract.  Yes, he is an idiot, plays porous defense, and has none of the leadership qualities so badly needed in this clubhouse.  But there is nobody that fits into this lineup better than he.  Manny would hit cleanup between Joey Votto and Jay Bruce, providing protection for both.  The power he generates will only be boosted at GABP.  He is also an on- base machine, which means Bruce and Edwin Encarnacion could see monster RBI totals which can only help the Reds in the long run.  Finally, Ramirez would put bodies into the seats and could pay for much of his salary at the turnstiles as he keeps the Reds near the top of the division.  But alas, this is a pipedream because the sticker shock on him prevents Walt Jocketty from even reaching for his phone.

Plan B:  Sign the aging Bobby Abreu to play left field.  He has never been a prolific power hitter, but he is still getting on base, stealing bases, scoring runs and playing average defense.  He could bat second or even first after the Willy Taveras experiment fails (that will be sometime in late May).  Check out his qualifications:

2006: .297/ .424/ .462, 15 HRs, 107 RBIs, 98 Runs, and 30 SBs
2007: .283/ .369/ ..445, 16 HRs, 101 RBIs, 123 Runs and 25 SBs
2008:  .296/ .371/ .471, 20 HRs, 100 RBIs, 100 Runs and 22 SBs

Abreu turns 35 next month and is definitely on the decline.  His price tag is also on the decline and if Pat Burrell is worth $16 million over two years then Abreu should eventually realize that his cost is about the same.

Plan C:  I have always said that I would never move Brandon Phillips off of second base.  It represents a big downgrade of that position and who knows how he will react to playing shortstop, his likely destination.  There is one exception to this stance.  The only person who can fill in for Phillips at second base and make it an upgrade is Orlando Hudson.  He is an elite defensive second basemen who is above average on offense;  his last three years, he has compiled on- base percentages of .354, .376, .367.  Phillips would move to shortstop, the position he played his whole life until just a few years ago.  He may have some initial struggles getting used to the position again, but Phillips is the most athletic player on the Reds and he, of all players, can make a transition like this happen.  Think about it; the Reds did the exact same thing to Jeff Keppinger last year.  Phillips will make the transition quicker, easier and better than Keppinger.  Once he adjusts, the Reds will have the best middle infield defense in the Major Leagues.  Baseball Prospectus recently reported that Hudson had received no contract offers from anyone because his asking price was too high and because he has been injured a lot recently.  Once his price comes into the Reds stratosphere, sign him and move Hairston to left field.

Plan D:  Go to Spring Training and hope youngsters Todd Frazier, Chris Valeika and/ or Drew Stubbs are more ready than you thought they were.  This is highly unlikely and it brings us back to the current situation... who plays left field.... legitimately?  Entering a season with Dickerson in left and Taveras in center cannot really be the final draft.  The Royals and Pirates have better plans than that.  Some options- good options- are still out there.

MLB reds, walt jocketty, jerry hairston jr., willy taveras, bobby abreu, manny ramirez, orlando hudson, todd frazier, chris valeika, drew stubbs

The Cincinnati Reds' off- season has been interesting on a number of fronts...

1.  Outside of the Yankees, owners have decided to cut back in payroll in anticipation of an economic downturn at their turnstiles.  Either that, or they are using the state of the economy as an excuse to cut back in payroll.  As a result, the Reds may not reach that $80 payroll figure that they had last year.

2.  As a result of the lack of spending on the free agent market (outside of the top- tier free agents), the price tags for many free agents should go down in late January.  Pat Burrell, Adam Dunn, Ben Sheets and others will not be able to get the four-year, $60 million contracts they were hoping for and this should help the Reds land Burrell.  In my Realistic Off- Season Plan for the Reds, I advocated the move to sign Burrell to a two- year, $30 million contract.  This lets him try the market when economic times will be better and it lets the Reds move Joey Votto to left field in two years to make room for Yonder Alonso.  Burrell is not Adam Dunn.  He has all of Dunn's positives and not as many of his negatives; he is right- handed, strikes out less, gets on base slightly more, plays slightly better defense, and is in better shape.  Check out the numbers:

Dunn's on base percentage the last four years:  .386, .386, .365, .387

Burrell's OBP the last four years:  .367, .400, .388, .389

Dunn's slugging:  .513, .554, .490, .540

Burrell's slugging:  .507, .502, .502, .504

Dunn's strikeouts:  164, 165, 194, 168

Burrell's strikeouts:  136, 120, 131, 160

Burrell could be had for about $10 million a year come late January if he is still available.  He would bat fourth (between Joey Votto and Jay Bruce).  He would help Bruce and Edwin Encarnacion (batting sixth) reach 100 RBIs because he is on base so much and he would make the awful pickup of Willy Taveras a lot easier to stomach.  Speaking of Taveras...

3.  A leadoff hitter's most important attribute is NOT speed.  That is a common misperception.  The most important thing a leadoff hitter can do is get on base for the big bats behind him to knock him in.  Taveras' on base numbers the last four years:  .308, .367, .333, .325.  If .345 to .355 is league average, Taveras' numbers are awful.  Since he does not get on base much, the Reds' #2 and #3 hitters, Brandon Phillips (who has his own on- base issues) and Votto, will not be driving in many runs.  It would not suprise me to see Votto hit .315/ .375/ .490 with 28 home runs and 85 RBIs.  The Reds won so much last year with Jerry Hairston Jr. in the lineup because he got on base for Phillips, Votto and Bruce.  Hopefully, the Reds can still sign Hairston and subsequently, bench Taveras.  If not, Reds fans will be comparing Taveras to Corey Patterson by June and though its a bit of a stretch, it is not too far off.

4.  Which brings us to Patterson.  The Washington Nationals signed him to a contract last week that confirmed three theories:  A.)  Nationals General Manager Jim Bowden is the worst GM of all time.  B.)  Nationals G.M. Jim Bowden has more incriminating photos of his bosses than any other employee in our country.  C.)  The Nationals have have been the worst baseball franchise of the last five years and with moves like signing Patterson coupled with poor drafts and the inability to lure quality free agents, they are assured of being the worst baseball franchise for the next five years.  To further emphasize this point... Mark Teixeira turned down $20 million more money (same length of contract) to go to his hometown Nationals in order to compete for a pennant with the Yankees.  They cannot even overpay for free agents to go there.

5.  Getting back to my Realistic Off- Season Plan for the Reds... RP Juan Cruz is still out there and Jonathan Sanchez is available through trade from the Giants.  There is still some hope to overcome an awful Taveras decision!

MLB reds, pat burrell, adam dunn, ben sheets, yonder alonso, joey votto, willy taveras, jerry hairston jr, brandon phillips, jay bruce, corey patterson, jim bowden, mark teixeira, juan cruz, johnathan sanchez

There are only 30 Major League Baseball General Managers in the world today, but there are about 30,000,000 million aspiring GMs.  I am one of those.  I know I could have done better than the ex- GM of the Cincinnati Reds, Wayne Krivsky, did last year.  I tried to help him out with a plan last December that ditched Ken Griffey before the season, got some value for Ryan Freel, and brought in Matt Cain from the Giants in a realistic trade that just may happen this winter.  Krivsky chose to ignore me and instead, started his Winter Meetings by cutting Jorge Cantu to open up a roster spot for the infamous Sergio Valenzuela in the Rule- 5 Draft and the Reds were on a collision course with 5th place.

Here we are a year later.  The General Managers are converging on Las Vegas for the 2008 Winter Meetings this week and Krivsky is long gone thanks to Valenzuela, Corey Patterson, Dusty Baker, Mike Stanton, Paul Bako… the list goes on.  Walt Jocketty now run the Reds.  Jocketty comes from the Bill Belichick School of Secrecy so there really is no way of knowing what he is going to do.  I did not get admitted to that school so my plan can be made quite public. 

MY COMPLETE OFF-SEASON PLAN 

MLB reds, hot stove baseball

So many Reds insights, so little time...

THE GOOD

• RHP Ramon Ramirez has been a pleasant surprise... to some.  To others, mainly the sabermeticians, this is no surprise.  Stat wizards have long discounted E.R.A. as a primary measure of a pitcher's worth since E.R.A. depends so much on defense and the bullpen, forces outside a pitcher's control.  Instead, they look at strikeouts per nine innings, walks per nine innings, and home runs allowed.  Ramirez could be their poster boy for this argument.  His combined minor league E.R.A. was a decent, but not eye- catching, 3.70 in 2007 and 3.59 in 2008.  His other minor league numbers in 2008 of 9K/ 9 IP, 3.5 BB/ 9 IP, and 0.9 HR/ 9 are eye- popping and tell us that this kid is a major leaguer.  In his three appearances so far with the Reds, he has 16 IP, 12 K, 6 BB, and 2 HRA- right in line with his minor league numbers.  Ramirez throws a fastball in the low 90s, a below average slider, and a low 80s changeup.  Oddly enough, it is his changeup that he throws the most (58% of the time so far with the Reds) because he throws it for strikes much more often than the other pitches.  Its not all good news though.  His current BABIP (batting average of balls put into play) is a tiny .108, which means that when batters are making contact, they are hitting the ball right at people.  This rate cannot continue- its impossible.  Also, very few starters in the major leagues can make it with just two good pitches.  My prediction?  He develops into a solid mid reliever or setup reliever.
  
  
• Even George Grande can figure out that the Reds need a big bat in the lineup for 2009 or contention seems unrealistic already.  The 2008 free agent slugger list is not an impressive one:  Pat Burrell, Adam Dunn, and Mark Teixeira head the list.  Dunn is not a possibility and Burrell and Teixeira may cost over $20 million a year on a multi-year deal.  That leaves the Reds with just one option- trades.  The Rockies' Matt Holliday has been mentioned as a target and he is a availible this winter because Holliday is a free agent after next year, the Rockies feel like he is already demanding too much for an extention, and the Rockies can get more value for him before the 2009 season.  The Reds could roll the dice and trade multiple young players (Homer Bailey, Chris Valaika, and Chris Dickerson?) for one year of Matt Holliday and then they could maybe win 82 to 85 games if they get a lot brakes.

THE BAD

• Even if the Reds do win 85 games next year with Matt Holliday, that total can no longer win the NL Central or NL Wild Card.  A few years ago, 85 wins would surely mean the playoffs, but with the drastic improvements of the Cubs, the Brewers, the Phillies, and the Mets over the last year, 85 wins gets you a seat on the couch in October.  Yes, the Brewers may lose both C.C. Sabathia and Ben Sheets to free agency and the Mets are an old team, but the Brewers' farm system is loaded and the Mets' financial resources usually put them in contention.  The bottom line?... there is too big of a gap to close between the Reds and playoffs for the Reds to gamble on Matt Holliday.  I would trade away Brandon Phillips, Aaron Harang, and Bronson Arroyo for a ton of young talent that can help in two or three years.  The Oakland A's subscribed to this theory this past year as they traded away Dan Haren, Rich Harden, Nick Swisher and Joe Blanton for loads for top minor league talent because they figured they could not catch the Angels this year.  Now the A's have realistic hope that they may catch the Angels in 2009 or 2010.


• The Reds did not dump the city of Sarasota in its bid for a better Spring Training complex.  The city of Sarasota dumped the Reds.  Sarasota voted to not expand and update their baseball facilities for the Reds, thus forcing the Reds to Arizona.  They are, however, going to vote to expand and update their facilities if the Boston Red Sox commit to moving to their city.  Sarasota figures that the Red Sox will bring in a lot more fans (and that means more money) than the Reds ever will.  How sad is that?

THE UGLY

• The local media, which has been mostly kind and patient with Dusty Baker, has started to show some dissatisfaction with Baker in that he did not live up to their expectations.  I, on the other hand, am very satisfied that Baker lived up to my expectations.  The difference here is that I expected Baker to be the worst manager in the Major Leagues and he did not disappoint.  And continues to not disappoint... 1.)  On August 30th, Ramon Ramirez went seven innings, giving up three earned runs against the Giants, while striking out six and allowing seven baserunners.  The rookie's reward?  Baker sent him to the bullpen in favor of Josh Fogg.  Luckily, Fogg, who will never pitch for the Reds again, hurt himself in his next start and now Baker is forced to take a look at Ramirez as a starter.  2.)  Why is Baker playing anyone will not be with the Reds next year?  Corey Patterson, Andy Phillips, Paul Bako and Javier Valentin should never see the field so we can evaluate Wilikin Castillo (he's terrible), Danny Herrera, Ryan Hannigan, Paul Janish (put Jeff Keppinger at third and Edwin Encarnacion in left field), Adam Rosales, and Drew Stubbs (why is he at home?).  Baker wants to play the veterans to "(keep) the integrity of the races and the game".  What?  Who is that helping?  The Cubs?  The Phillies?  The Brewers?  It sure is not helping the future of the Reds.
  
  
• When Baker puts a lineup on the field that includes Patterson, Bako, and any pitcher, he is giving away eight to twelve at bats to the opposition before the game even starts.
  
  
• Another reason why I would trade the veteran stars on this team over the winter and stockpile young talent is because I believe the Reds have no hope for contention while they have a stubborn, uniformed, misdirected manager who has never, ever, learned from his mistakes.  Start building for the post- Dusty era.

MLB reds, ramon ramirez, pat burrell, adam dunn, mark teixeira, homer bailey, chris vala ika, chris dickerson, dan haren, rich harden, nick swisher, joe blanton, dan haren, rich harden, nick swisher, joe blanton, brandon phillips, aaron harang, bronson arroyo, dusty bake, corey patterson, andy phillips, paul bako, javier valentin, wilikin castillo, danny herrera, ryan hannigan, paul janish, edwin encarnacion, jeff keppinger

Many Reds fans have turned the page on the 2008 season and started to tenuously root for the Bengals.  Those fans are missing some interesting times in Redsland; so much so that I will need two Reds Musings this week.  So tune back in on Wednesday for Part II.  In the meantime...

THE GOOD

• With the signing of 2008 first round draft pick, Yonder Alonso, the Reds have completed one of their more successful amateur signing periods in recent memory.  The triumpherant of Alonso and the two 16-year old Latin studs, Juan Dixon and Yorman Rodriguez, give Reds fans encouragement for... 2012.  Besides those three, the Reds also stole RHP Zach Stewart in the third round of the June draft.  Stewart, a closer at Texas Tech last Spring, has dominated Class A so far.  His combined stats at Dayton and Sarasota are:  33 IP, 36 K, 14 BB, 26 HA, 0 HR, and a 1.09 E.R.A.  Another quick starter is sixth rounder, Alex Buchholz, a second baseman from Delaware.  In Rookie Ball at Billings this season, he hit .400/ .477/ .615 in 130 ABs.  This haul dwarfs the previous two years' worth of prospects that Reds' Farm Director Chris Buckley put together.
  
  
• Jay Bruce has nine errors this season so far with the Reds.  This looks poor by almost any standard, but there are some positives.  Bruce has been credited for some errors on ground balls that he bobbled that let a runner score on a single from second base.  Are these really errors?  Secondly, Bruce has been credited with a few tough errors on dropped fly balls that Ken Griffey Jr. would never have come close to.  Reds pitchers have noticed the difference between Griffey and Bruce too.  Bronson Arroyo recently remarked about how much the Reds outfield defense has improved recently.
  
  
• Another part of that improved outfield defense is LF Chris Dickerson.  Dickerson is probably hitting well above his head at .329/ .427/ 695 in 82 AB (his minor league numbers do not come close to this), but his disciplined approach at the plate, his speed, and his defense do translate into a solid fourth outfielder at the Major League level.  He is not the impact player that the Reds so desperately need, but he is a solid contributor and every good baseball team need players like him.

THE BAD

• With the Reds long out of contention, logic says that the Reds should be experimenting with what they have to prepare for next year.  They have done that somewhat by giving Ryan Hannigan and Dickerson playing time.  But why aren't they putting Edwin Encarnacion in left field and Jeff Keppinger at third base to see if that may work?  Darryl Thompson should be pitching at this level now that he is healthy again.  Drew Stubbs should be thrown into centerfield to see if he can make contact with major league pitches (playing Corey Patterson serves absolutely no purpose besides bring Dusty Baker more abuse).  Josh Roenicke should be in the Reds bullpen to see if he can replace David Weathers.  This is extended Spring Training folks- let's take advantage!
  
  
• Tom Verducci of Sports Illustrated has come up a system to predict down years for young pitchers.  It is simple really.  He calls it the Year After Effect:  He finds major league pitchers 25- and- under who have pitched 30 or more innings than the previous year.  He eliminates the "artificially depressed" pitchers, such as those that had an injury and uses their college or professional high instead.  With that, he comes up with a group that he predicts will either get injured the next year or will have a big drop off the next year.  In February of 2008, he ran his numbers and came out with this group:  Ian Kennedy (NYY), Fausto Carmona (CLE), Ubaldo Jimenez (COL), Tom Gozelanny (PIT), Dustin McGowan (TOR), Chad Gaudin (OAK, now CHI), and Yovani Gallardo (MIL).  All but Jimenez have been seriously hurt at some time this season, but he was a total bomb the first half of the season.  Gaudin has not been seriously hurt, but his workload has been decreased with a switch to the bullpen at the start of the year.  It is amazing how accurate this system is at predicting upcoming struggles and injuries.  Who is a candidate for Verducci's Year After Effect in 2009?  You guessed it- Edinson Volquez.  The 25- year old pitched 144.67 innings last year and has already thrown 170 innings this year.  Other Reds pitchers:  Johnny Cueto- 161.33 in 2007 and 155 in 2008; Homer Bailey- 138.66 in 2006 and 148 in 2008.  Verducci would tell the Reds to shut down Voquez RIGHT NOW!

THE UGLY

• The White Sox are currently hitting Ken Griffey Jr. seventh and subbing in for him on defense late in the games.  He says that he is fine with all of this and loves his new team.  This reflects very poorly on Dusty Baker and further soils his reputation on dealing with and over- inflating the value of fading superstars.
  
  
• Corey Patterson rarely gets on base, but even when does, he is making even more outs on the bases.  He currently is tied for the lead in the Major Leagues in getting picked off of first base with nine.  Amazing.
  
  
• The Reds have been part of some of the best bet- the - house matchups so far this year in the Major Leagues.  The first came when Homer Bailey was struggling in late Spring.  He faced off against new Reds killer, Cole Hamels, and the Reds got pummeled.  That was possibly the lock- of- the- year in MLB.  Coming in a close second was the recent Josh Fogg start when he faced off against career Reds killer, Roy Oswalt.  The Reds had no shot that day, although Fogg did shut out the Astros for three innings before falling apart.

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MLB reds, yonder alonso, juan dixon, yorman rodriguez, zach stewart, jay bruce, bronson arroyo, chris dickerson, ryan hannigan, edwin encarnacion, jeff keppinger, darryl thompson, drew stubbs, corey patterson, josh roenicke, edinson volquez, johnny cueto, homer bailey, ken griffey jr, dusty baker, josh fogg

This article took a vacation over the last two weeks because, quite honestly, it is not easy being a Reds fan.  I try not to be completely negative when it comes to the Reds, but they do not help me out much.  But then, Ken Griffey Jr. was traded and I can write an article again...

THE GOOD

• It is a miracle that someone took Griffey off of the Reds' hands and actually agreed to pay part of his salary.  The Chicago White Sox made one of the dumbest moves of the season (I call it "substraction by addition") when they traded living, breathing ballplayers for Griffey.  In his first game, the Chicago fans gave him a polite standing ovation.  Things changed quickly: the radio talk shows, the newspapers and the fans have hammered Griffey for his lack of hustle, his poor defense, his sulking, and his slow bat.  And he only has only played ten games.  If he continues his current pace with the White Sox (7-32, no extra base hits), who is going to sign him this off-season?
  
  
• The Reds have come to realize that they need to get a lot faster.  For years, Griffey and Adam Dunn have clogged up the bases, rarely taking an extra base on any single.  They could not run down any balls in the gap on defense.  They set the tone for the rest of the team by being as non- agressive as possible.  They were there to hit home runs, defy shifts, and loaf to first.  That attitude is gone and that cannot be underestimated.  The promotion to the Majors of Chris Dickerson, one of the most athletic players in their whole system, is a sign that management does not want the old attitude to linger.
  
  
• Keeping David Weathers and Jeremy Affeldt instead of trading them was not a bad idea IF the Reds can sign them to extentions.  If they both walk, then this line item falls a few inches downward in this article.

The Bad

• The Reds got zero for Dunn from the Diamondbacks.  We know they got minor league pitcher Dallas Buck.  It has also been reported that they got pitcher Micah Owings and minor league catcher Wilkin Castillo.  The best of three is probably Buck.  He was considered a first round pick for the 2006 draft until he hurt his arm pitching Oregon State to the College World Series title.  He dropped to the third round and immediately opted for arm rehab instead of surgery when doctors found a partial ligament tear in his elbow after the draft.  He has continued to try to pitch through the injury and has had few positive results.  That is the best prospect of the three.  Major league hitters' bats have told us that Owings is a fifth starter at best.  His numbers this year in Arizona:  104.66 IP, 104 HA, 41 BB, 87 Ks, 14 HR, and a 5.93 E.R.A.  And he may be hurt.  Castillo is considered the best catching prospect that Arizona has.  That is like saying that Curly was the smartest of the Three Stooges.  Castillo has no plus tools- he is very average at everything.  His Triple A line is worrisome: .254/ .305/ .358 in 358 at bats with 54 Ks and 24 BBs.  He is nowhere near a big league hitter because 1.  his strikeouts are double his walks- a consistent sign of failure for minor leaguers when they promoted to the highest level.  2.  A .305 on base percentage indicates a poor approach at the plate and no game plan at the plate.  3.  A .358 slugging percentage at any level is pathedic.  Even Griffey is higher than that this year.
  
  
• Jeff Keppinger is playing hurt and his numbers show it.  Since his return from the DL in mid June, his batting average has dropped from .324 to .262 and he rarely hits any extra base hits.  He broke his kneecap and this is probably preventing him from driving the ball.  My bet is that we hear about this during the off- season.
  
  
• Josh Fogg was terrible when the Reds signed him and he may be worse now.  It is amazing that he is still on the roster.  He will not be on anyone's roster a year from now.

The Ugly

• Dusty Baker's comments that the 2008 Reds are, "Wayne Krivsky's team, not Walt Jocketty's and not mine" are shameful.  Krivsky does deserve a lot of the blame for the Reds' poor performance, but so too does Baker.  Did Krivsky bat Corey Patterson 245 times, many times in the leadoff spot?  Did Krivsky hit Griffey third despite the statistics, the loafing, and the stubbornness to defy any shift?  Did Krivsky ruin Aaron Harang's arm in San Diego?  Did Krivsky try to start Matt Belisle, Scott Hatteberg and Fogg?  Or how about the appalling lack of energy that the Reds played with until the trade of Dunn this week?  Baker's inability to see his faults just makes matters worse and leaves very little hope for him in the future.  He needs to go ASAP.
  
  
• The Reds have gone down to the deadline with their 2008 first round pick, first baseman Yonder Alonso.  Viewed as a reach with the overall seventh pick, Alonso is wanting much more that last year's number seven pick (Matt LaPorta got just over $2 million from the Brewers).  Everyone knew Alonso's contract demands BEFORE the draft ($7 million signing bonus and a major league contract) so why did the Reds draft him?  Consensus had better players than Alonso on the board, players who had reasonable contract demands.  If the Reds do not sign him, this will be the third straight terrible first round draft pick for Reds Scouting Director Chris Buckley.  The Reds farm system has gone from stocked to below average under his watch.  Yes, some of it is natural with the graduation to the Majors of Jay Bruce, Johnny Cueto, and Joey Votto, but he has not replaced any of that talent.

MLB reds, ken griffey, adam dunn, chris dickerson, david weathers, jeremy affeldt, dallas buck, micah owings, wilkin castillo, jeff keppinger, josh fogg, dusty baker, corey patterson, aaron harang, matt belisle, scott hatteber, yonder alonso, jay bruce, johnny cueto, joey votto, chris buckley