The Queen City is excited, and rightfully so, about a relevant September and an extended October for their Boys of Summer.  The possibility is real for those Reds fans age 15 and under to witness the first Reds playoff series since they have been alive (excluding the one game play- in game in 1999).  And if that was not enough, the future beyond 2010 looks bright for the Cincinnati Reds as their farm system is deep and ready to graduate talent.

            So what are the key issues coming down the stretch and heading into the future?  Well, here are the ten important questions that need to be addressed and one person’s answers.  The questions are in order with the most important question at the end…

1.  Will Orlando Cabrera stop Joey Votto from winning the Triple Crown?  Answer:  It already happened.  Cabrera has batted in front of Votto in almost every game that he has played this year despite an Alex Trevino- like .276 on- base percentage.  Thus, Votto has not had enough teammates on base when he is at the plate and his RBI total suffers (Stubbs has not helped much either at the top of the lineup).  Votto still is only three RBI off the pace (at press time), but Cabrera is coming off of the DL soon and the sabotage will resume.  Let us not skip another part of the equation- Votto’s nagging injuries (neck, back) and his increasingly poor reputation with the umps is not helping either.

2.  What will the Reds do with Aaron Harang?  Answer:  Wait until the rosters expand in September and then add him to the roster as a long reliever.  He deserves no better- he cannot get Triple- A hitters out right now.  He gave up six earned runs, nine hits, in six innings in his most recent rehab start in Louisville.  In terms of the future, his option will be declined and he will be a free agent this winter.  He better be ready to take a massive salary cut.

3.  Will the Reds exercise the option on Bronson Arroyo’s contract and bring him back next year?  Answer:  His option year will cost the Reds $11 million, but if they decline the option, it will cost them $2 million.  He would easily be the most expensive pitcher on the staff next year as Homer Bailey, Mike Leake, Johnny Cueto, Edinson Volquez, Travis Wood, Matt Maloney and Aroldis Chapman may not make $11 million combined.  Notice how many starting pitchers were just named- there is no room at the inn for Arroyo.  He is out.  On a side note, a great trade for next year would involve one of these young pitchers going to the Marlins for their young left fielder, Logan Morrison.  His on- base tools and power would fit in perfectly at the top of the lineup, even though he is a left handed batter.

4.  What will the Reds do with the money saved from the expiring contracts of Arroyo, Harang, Arthur Rhodes and Mike Lincoln (roughly $26 million)?  Answer:  Brandon Phillips’ contract calls for a $4.25 million pay raise.  Cueto, Volquez, Bailey, Bill Bray, and most importantly, Votto are all eligible for arbitration this off- season so that should cost around $12 million combined.  It could be more if one is signed long- term (hopefully, Votto is first in this line).  Rhodes should be re- signed and that may cost $3 million so there is almost $20 million already spent.  There is some savings left over; a free agent left fielder may get that if one is not acquired through trade. 

5.  Is this bullpen still a worry?  Answer:  Outside of Francisco Cabrera (see below), the bullpen has become a positive.  Here is a great sign for the bullpen:  Mike Leake, a top ten rookie in the National League is the long man in the bullpen and his demotion there was mainly due to concern over his innings pitched. Besides that, Logan Ondrusek and Jordan Smith keep their pitches low, a necessity at GABP.  Rhodes has been dominant.  Nick Masset has rebounded well after an awful April.  And Aroldis Chapman is on the way.  No worries here… almost.

Bonus question:  We will take a break at the halfway point, and ask a historical question… do Ken Griffey Jr. and Adam Dunn belong in the Cincinnati Reds Hall of Fame?  The two lightning rods for fans’ ire probably get a quick, emotional, “No way!”  They were the poster boys for losing, uninspiring teams and they were paid generously.  But time and some Reds winning seasons will heal those wounds and fans will eventually look closely at what they accomplished and vote them into the Reds Hall.  Here are their numbers with a comparison to the most recent Reds Hall inductee, Chris Sabo:

Player             AB       Hits     HRs    Runs   RBI     AVG    OBP    SLG    Seasons

Dunn                3727    920      270      678      646      .247     .380     .520     about 7

Griffey              3353    904      210      533      602      .270     .362     .514     about 8.5

Sabo                3012    812      104      443      373      .270     .328     .447     about 6.5

By the way, Dunn is 3^rd all- time in OBP, 2^nd is slugging, 4^th in home runs, 16^th in runs and 17^th in RBI.  Griffey is 4^th in slugging, 7^th in home runs, 29^th in runs, and 23^rd in RBI.  Dunn is a lock.  Griffey is a good bet.

6.  Should Francisco Cabrera remain the team’s closer?  Answer:  Cordero is walking 5.7 batters per nine innings.  He is giving up 8 hits per nine innings.  As a result, his WHIP is 1.52 which means that one and a half runners are reaching on him every inning.  This is poor for any pitcher, much less a closer who is sent in to protect small leads.  Sure, he has 33 saves, but that number defies his statistics and those statistics will catch up with him at some point soon.  In other words, he has been lucky to save many of those games.  Arthur Rhodes should close Reds games with Aroldis Chapman moving into his setup role.

7.  Should the Reds extend Dusty Baker’s contract?  Answer:  Any loyal reader of this column knows what is coming… absolutely not.  Some will say he deserves it because he has the Reds winning.  The truth is, he had a lot of young talent dumped on his lap by past and present General Managers.  Most major league managers dream of bats like Joey Votto, positive leadership from a veteran like Scott Rolen, and a solid seven man starting rotation (including Chapman and Leake).  Baker deserves credit for his master handling of egos, but there are no excuses for low OBP hitters at the top of the lineup, platoon players in the lineup everyday regardless of the opposition’s pitcher (coverage coming soon), and a refusal to bench slumping players (Cordero, Gomes, Stubbs, Cabrera, etc.).  He has played against the odds and won many times this season… eventually that will catch up to him.

8.  Will Dusty Baker use more platoons in the lineup?  Answer:  Lately, we have seen some progress in this area of deficiency for Baker.  Jay Bruce is sitting more and more against left handed pitchers.  Now, Baker needs to move across the outfield and sit Drew Stubbs and Johnny Gomes much more against right handed pitching.  Here are the triple slash numbers (batting average/ on base percentage/ slugging percentage) for Gomes, Stubbs and two possible replacements:

Gomes:  .254/ .299/ .412 with most of that success coming in April and May

Nix:  .281/ .338/ .446

Stubbs:  .240/ .308/  .374

Heisey: .404/ .493/ .702

At the very least, Heisey needs to be playing left field instead of Gomes against right handed pitching.  How does a major league manager let this rather large discrepancy continue?  Baker is a very stubborn individual so Gomes and Stubbs may have to break some legs (or strain an oblique: see Cabrera, Orlando) before common sense finds its way into the Reds lineup.

9.  Will Dusty Baker sit Paul Janish on the bench when Orlando Cabrera returns from the Disabled List?  Answer:  Though it defies all common sense (again), you can bet the house on this.  Here are the numbers that Baker chooses to ignore:

Janish:  .281/ .358/ .421 with no errors and a 5.01 range factor

Cabrera:  .260/ .302/ .339 with 10 errors and a 4.23 range factor

Cabrera versus right handers:  .239/ .276/ ..320

Janish versus right handers:  .256/ .330/ .410

Out of curiosity:

Juan Castro (2003):  .253/ .290/ .388

Anderson Machado (in 56 at bats in 2004):  .268/ .379/ .393

Cabrera is plummeting towards Ray Olmedo status (. 228/ .276/ .293 career line).  There is no other manager in MLB that would play Cabrera regularly right now.  Baker’s negatives- and they are big negatives- are simply being hidden by wins right now.

10  Will the Reds make the playoffs?  Answer:  Let’s take injuries out of the equation.  The Wild Card spot is possible and it appears it will come down to either the Phillies or Braves and the Cardinals or Reds.  The NL West is the strongest division in the National League and the Giants have the schedule disadvantage when it comes to the Wild Card.   The pick here says the Phillies or Braves will take the Wild Card because both have starting pitching depth and both are getting healthy (outside of Chipper Jones and Chase Utley).  So… can the Reds win the NL Central?  The teams are both playing weak schedules down the stretch and the teams are evenly matched in just about every category except coaching.  After 162 games, the teams will not be separated by more than a couple of games.  Though the Big Three- Cordero, Cabrera, and Baker- will blow a few extra games the Reds otherwise would not lose, the Reds already do have a cushion, they have superior depth (particularly with Chapman coming up), and they appear to have karma on their side.  The Reds by one game.

MLB cincinnati reds, joey votto, aaron harang, bronson arroyo, brandon phillips, arthur rhodes

The opportunity for the Cincinnati Reds to win a pennant this year is real.  General Manager Walt Jocketty did a fantastic job over the last 12 months of assembling talent at a reasonable price.  Now, the pressure is on him to make Trade- Deadline adjustments so his team can edge the St. Louis Cardinals and win their first title since 1995.  Here are the three most pressing moves that need to be made to ensure this happens.

1.  Fire Dusty Baker immediately.  This may cause some head scratching, but the Reds are winning despite Baker's stubborn, 1960s- style managing.  Though a master of the media and a great people person in general, Baker has three flaws that have cost the Reds dearly in a number of games:

a.  Just like he did with Corey Patterson in 2008 and Willy Taveras in 2009, Baker is stubbornly starting Orlando Cabrera and batting him at the top of the lineup.  Baker has always been in love with speed at the top of the lineup and not the most important trait at the top of the lineup- the ability to get on base.  Patterson's numbers in 2008 were a remarkably poor .205/ /238/ .344 (batting average/ on- base percentage/ slugging percentage).  Taveras' were a slight improvement, but still an awful .240/ .275/ .285 in 2009.  Somehow, without much attention, Cabrera has matched Taveras at .243/ .283/ .329 including an unsightly .207/ .241/ .291 against right handed pitching.  And he is hitting 1st or 2nd in the lineup!  It is hard to say which is worse- Cabrera's bat or Baker's decision to play him.  Paul Janish has the vastly superior glove at shortstop and the difference is just as great at the plate: .296/ .397/ .463.  But Janish is not the only possible replacement for Cabrera; anyone who is an above average fielding shortstop who can hit .220 is an improvement (Triple- A shortstop Zach Cozart) because Cabrera's range at short is so limited.  Cabrera seems to be a very positive person who helps in the clubhouse so he may have some value on the bench, but certainly not in the starting lineup.

b.  Baker caves in to individual player greed and ego.  He has a need to put individual accomplishments before the team.  He is popular amongst his players because he lets pitchers come back in to pitch after long rain delays in the 5th inning to get a win (Aaron Harang) only to blow up and lose the game.  He lets his rookie pitcher, Mike Leake, who was supposed to be under a strict innings count, stay in the game against the Phillies where the Reds led 7-1 in the ninth to get his first complete game.  Instead, Hall of Fame sluggers Greg Dobbs and Cody Ransom hit home runs sending the game into the 10th where the Reds lost the gmae.  Similarly, he stubbornly continues to send Francisco Cordero out to close games depite the fact that Cordero's performance has been on the decline.  His strikeout rates per nine innnigs are:  9.98 (2008), 7.83 (2009), 7.52 (2010).  His home run rates per nine innings over the last three years are:  0.77, 0.27, 1.11.  Finally, his hits allowed per nine innings over the last three years are:  7.81, 7.83, 9.07.  Baker needs to say "No" to his players more- "no" to Cordero is any tight situation and "no" to players who want to stay in the game to achieve a stat.

c.  Finally, Baker gives up outs, the most preciouse commodity a team has, at an alarming rate.  There is a proper time and place for the bunt- late in a game when the score is close- and Baker does not understand this.  He has called for a bunt after his leadoff man has reached in the first inning, a move that ignores all statistical probabilities (bunting along a runner from first to second actually decreases a team's odds of scoring from .907 to .720) and is a backwards strategy for a game (what if the oppoent scores four runs in the bottom of the first while you played for a single run?).  This includes asking one of his best hitters, Brandon Phillips, to bunt Cabrera to third after a lead- off double.  Phillips was bunting despite the fact that there is no better hitter on the team that can shoot the ball to right field!  Baker asked for the same thing from Cabrera after a Phillips lead- off double in a game in which the Reds had Matt Maloney pitching against Johan Santana- did Baker play for one run because he expected the Mets to be shut out by Maloney?  Why play for one run?  And possibly the worst bunting call of them all- Baker had a pitcher bunt with one out and runners at first and third.  What!?!  We would rather have second and third and two outs than a runners at first and third and one out?  Baker's teams are consistently amongst the top of the league in sacrifice bunt attempts including being number two in 2008 and number one in 2009.  It seems as though Baker is still managing in the 1960s when offense was at a disadvantage due to the height of the mound and bunting was more important.  Times have changed, but changing is one of Baker's weaknesses.

2.  Acquire bullpen help.  The addition of Bill Bray has helped, but the Reds still need a new closer and a right handed set up man.  The ideal target would be Joakim Soria of the Kansas City Royals.  The flamethrower has a reasonable contract ($3 million in 2010, $4 million in 2011, $6 million in 2012, $8 million in 2013, and $8.75 million in 2014 with affordable $750,000 buyouts the last three years), great numbers (11.06 K/9, 2.31 BB/9, 1.03 HR allowed/9, 7.97 HA/9 and a 2.31 E.R.A.) and is on a team that is rebuilding.  A backup plan would be the Marlins' Leo Nunez.  The Marlins seems to be always selling players and since Nunez is making $2 million this year and is eligible for arbitration next year, he is a prime candidate to be moved.  His numbers are 9.08 K/9, 2.21 BB/9, 0.25 HRA/9, 7.12 HA/9 and a 2.95 E.R.A.  Compare those numbers to Cordero's (listed above).  It could be the difference in two or three more wins which could be the difference in the NL Central championship.  Other possible arms to consider:  veterans Clay Hensley of Florida and Brandon Lyon of Houston and Shawn Camp of Toronto.

3.  If Baker is not going to be fired, at least bench Orlando Cabrera.  Just because Cabrera is a veteran and "you know what you are going to get by looking at the back of his baseball card" (the most ignorant saying in the baseball community) does not mean he is productive.  See Ken Griffey Jr. for further proof.

***
For the first time in over ten seasons, the Reds have enough talent and depth to win the NL Central.  They are at a competitive disadvantage in other areas- namely at shortstop, in the bullpen and with their manager.  Those are not hard holes to fill and adjustments are possible and badly needed.  Reds fans are starving for a meaningful September- let's give it to them while there is a chance. 

MLB cincinnati reds, dusty baker, orlando cabrera, francisco cordero, nl central

In the spirit of summer's annual blitz at the box office, the Cincinnati Reds' Minor Leaguers this season have performed like a typical movie sequel.  "Ocean's Thirteen" or "Alien 4: The Resurrection" come to mind; you come in with high hopes after the previous few shows and leave wondering if you wasted your time or not.  There were some great scenes, but overall... ?

The Reds have graduated a lot of their Minor League talent to the Major Leagues over the past three years.  They have passed along more talent than the previous dozen years combined.  Just this year Mike Leake, Jordan Smith, Chris Heisey, and Logan Ondrusek have exited the Minors and they leave nice talent gaps that are hard to replace.  Some players have stepped up and some are fading faster than Molly Ringwald's film career.

The following is a listing of the midseason ranking of the Reds' Minor Leaguers based upon statistics, numerous scouting reports, first hand observation, age, position, and the catchall- research. 

Travis Wood and Matt Maloney are included in the rankings because, as unfair as it seems, the guess here is that both will be sent back down to the Minors shortly with the returns of Aaron Harang and Edinson Volquez.

First, the GetSportsInfo Preseason Rankings for a comparison:

1.  Aroldis Chapman, SP
2.  Yonder Alonso, 1B/ LF
3.  Todd Frazier, 2B/ 3B/ OF
4.  Mike Leake, SP
5.  Travis Wood, SP
6.  Chris Heisy, OF
7.  Yorman Rodriguez, OF
8.  Juan Francisco, 3B
9.  Zach Cozart, SS
10.  Matt Maloney, SP
11.  Bradley Boxberger, SP
12.  Chris Valaika, 2B
13.  Donnie Joseph, RP
14.  Juan Duran, OF
15.  Didi Gregorius, SS
16.  Billy Hamilton, SS
17.  Phillippe Valiquette, SP
18.  Enerio Del Rosario, RP
19.  Ezequiel Infante, SP
20.  Sam LeCure, SP

QUICK COMMENTS:  No Devin Mesoraco.  We missed on that one, but so did everyone else in the universe.  Enerio Del Rosario was promoted to Cincinnati, drank a few cups of coffee, showed some promise and headed back to Louisville for polish.  It is rare to rank a reliever on a Prospects List- they are so easy to come by.  Neftali Soto was left off after he ate his way out of shortstop AND third base and is now left to hit his way to the Majors over at first base.  Daryl Thompson is a long lost name that may resurface as he recovers from arm trouble in Double- A.

And now, the GSI Midseason Rankings and comments:

1.  Chapman:  temporarily being converted to a reliever to help an awful Major League bullpen.  His control issues are real and not improving much.  He seems to think that his stuff (i.e. 100 m.p.h. fastball) will carry him to success.  He still has a lot to learn.

2.  Wood:  His showing in the Majors so far has been impressive, but let's wait until the league sees him a second time around before anointing him Tom Browning.  He could be a solid #3 starting pitcher.

***3.  Yasmani Grandal, C:  The Reds' 2010 number one draft pick debuts here as soon as he commits to a contract.  That is not a great sign for the rest of the list and others.  Grandal will be an average fielding catcher who can hit somewhere between #2 and #6 in the lineup depending on how much he develops.

4.  Alonso:  The biggest trade chip the Reds have because 1.) He plays a position that is blocked by the Reds' best player and 2.) He is hotter than Catherine Zeta- Jones in "Ocean's Twelve" right now.  Over the past week, he has hit .387/.441/.742 (12-for-31), 3 R, 2 2B, 3 HR, 10 RBI, 3 BB, 5 SO, 3 SB.

5.  Mesoraco:  He is hardly slowing down after his promotion from High- A Lynchburg (.335/ .414/ .620 in 158 at bats) to Double- A Carolina (.286/ .339/ .610 in 105 at bats).  He should have been in the Futures Game, but there are still a lot of non- believers out there because the former #1 draft pick has not done anything like this since he has been a pro.

6.  Rodriguez:  The toolsy Venezuelan with the record signing bonus continues to progress.  In just 40 at bats (small sample!!!) for the Billings Mustangs (Short Season Rookie Ball), he is hitting .375/ .366/ .525.  He still needs to work on the typical problem with young players- plate disciple (no walks, eight strikeouts).

7.  Frazier:  He is struggling mightily in Triple-A (.239/ .301/ .434 in 297 at bats).  The good news is that these numbers have come up lately.  Still, he does not look to help the big club until late 2011 at the earliest.

8.  Ryan Lamarre:  The 2010 second round draft pick should never have lasted until the #62 pick overall.  He only did so because of an early season injury at the University of Michigan.  He is a five tool talent who should be in the top five in these rankings in a year.  So far, in 92 at bats at Low- A Dayton, he is hitting .272/ .380/ .359 with 12 steals in 13 attempts.

9.  Boxberger:  2009's supplemental pick is having a decent year at High- A (1.24 WHIP, 3.19 E.R.A. and 70 strikeout and 20 walks in 62 innings).  He gets very little press for some reason.

10.  Maloney:  He probably deserves to spend more time in Cincinnati, but he is squeezed out by money and returning veterans.  He could carve out an up and down career as a 4th or 5th (probably) starter.

11.  Joseph:  He is the only reliever in the present rankings so he must be good.  Last year's third- round pick has 76 strikeouts while walking 13 in 43.33 innings this year in High and Low- A ball.  He is a future closer.

12.  Cozart:  Scouts say he does not have the arm of Paul Janish, but he has better range and can hit better than him.  In particular, he takes more walks and hits for more power.  Both Cozart and Janish are better options than Orlando Cabrera right now.

13.  Gregorius:  Scouts love his glove and arm.  It is just a matter of his bat.  So far, the Dutch import has hit .271/ .325/ .385 in 340 at bats at Dayton.  He has some speed:  10 steals in 14 attempts.  There is no shortage of fantastic glove men at shortstop in this organization.

14.  Hamilton:  The Mississippi native is possibly the best athlete in the system.  He is only 19 years old and is as raw as you can imagine.

15.  Kyle Lotzkar:  After serious arm surgery that also included elbow ligament surgery (two for the price of one), Lotzkar is slowly coming back.  He just recent started to throw again for the Arizona Rookie team.  He is a huge question mark and many think the odds are against him.

16.  Francisco:  The raw power attracts scouts.  They rave about the possibilities of 30 homer seasons.  He reminds us of Wily Mo Pena because though he may have power, he has no plate disciple, no speed, and no ability to play defense.  Pawn him off to another organization before they clue in.

17.  Duran:  Continues to show absolutely nothing (.192/ .289/ .329) at the plate, but he is only 18 and still filling out his massive frame.  Scouts say all of the physical tools are there and that he just needs to play a ton.  If Hamilton is a rare steak, Duran is still mooing on the grill.

18.  Dave Sappelt:  We are doing a lot of reaching since reaching #15 on this list.  Sappelt is not a guy who many have heard of- maybe its because he is listed as 5'9" in the media book and may be only 5'7" in real life.  But he continues to put up solid numbers (combined High- A and Double- A numbers of .325/ .372/ .467 in 302 at bats) while showing good physical tools in center field.  He needs to work on his base running as he is only 20 for 33 in stolen base attempts.

19.  Valiquette:  The Canadian can light up the radar gun so he made the Futures Game and is a candidate for the back of the rotation or as a lefty set- up man.

20.  Valaika:  After a miserable 2009 season (.235/ .271/ .344), he has rebounded nicely with the average (.290), but nothing else ( .322 OBP and  .379 SLG).  This makes him a fringe prospect at best.  The 2010 third- round pick, Devin Lohman, will be passing him and many others between #15 and #19 very shortly.

21.  Devin Lohman, SS
22.  Miguel Rojas, SS
23.  Daryl Thompson, SP
24.  Ezequiel Infante, SP
25.  Sam LeCure, SP

Minor Leagues, MLB cincinnati reds, minor league report, reds minor league rankings, louisville bats

So the rumor of a predraft deal between the Kansas City Royals and Miami junior catcher Yasmani Grandal was not true.  Instead, the Royals drafted shortstop Christian Colon from Cal St. Fullerton.  Plus, the Baltimore Orioles drafted Manny Machado the pick before the Royals and so any dreams of a much-needed shortstop for the Cincinnati Reds went down the drain early.  Surprisingly, it was Grandal who slid down to the Reds at #12 and the Reds threw caution to the wind and selected him.  With this surprise comes plenty of positives and negatives.  Here they are, in order...

NEGATIVES
1.  His agent is the same agent as 2008 first-round pick Yonder Alonso's and those negotiations were gloomy at best.  His price tag is rumored to be ridiculous and that is why he slipped to #12.  If he signs with the Reds, it will be at the deadline.

2.  Grandal has had only one good year at the college level.  He hit .234 as a freshman at Miami, .299 last year and hit just .182 for Team USA last summer.  He is having a monster season this season- he is hitting .412 with an on- base percentage well over .500.  He has changed his approach to hitting by abandoning an all- pull attitude and now he sprays the ball to all fields.  Still, one year of success should make Reds fans a little uneasy.

3.  Though Reds scouting director Chris Buckley says that Grandal is a plus thrower, Baseball America quotes some scouts who say that his throwing arm is his biggest concern as they have clocked him with 2.1 pop times (that is a below average release time for a MLB catcher throwing to second base).

4.  The Reds drafted a catcher in the first round just three years ago in Devin Mesoraco.  He has been awful until this season at Single- A Lynchburg (where he was repeating the league).  He was hitting .335/ .414/ .620 before he was just recently promoted to Double- A ball.  He is arguably having the best season of any Reds minor leaguer and the Reds drafted another catcher?  This smells like the Yonder Alonso- Joey Votto quagmire the Reds have sunk into.

POSITIVES
1.  Grandal is having a massive season and is among the NCAA leaders in many offensive catagories.  He switch hits and plays a position of scarcity in the Majors.  That is an encouraging combination.

2.  Grandal was not expected to be around when the Reds picked at #12.  This could be labled as a value pick and if Mel Kiper were covering this Draft, he would be raving over it.  Pitcher Chris Sale (#13) and outfielder Josh Sale (#17 and no relation) were available and would have been value picks too so Grandal was not a no- brainer.  Overall, the Draft was not deep in talent and anywhere that value was found must be a positive.

3.  Reds Owner Bob Castellini has shown that he can get even the toughest deals done (Adrolis Chapman, Yonder Alonso) so we should have faith that he can get Grandal in the fold.

******
Clearly, the negatives outweigh the positives initially, but if the kid is signed, that reverses direction... barely.  The kid has a lot to prove and has some direct competition in Mesoraco.  Odds are that one of the two catchers will be traded or just not make the Majors.  On that note, remember, there is nothing wrong with trading your prospects so that could be the final positive.

MLB 2010 mlb amateur draft, cincinnati reds, yasmani grandal

Two years ago, Gordon Beckham was the easy pick for the Cincinnati Reds in the first round of the MLB Draft.  Beckham, being a polished college player, would not take long to get to the Majors (he did not) and he was a shortstop, a position that has been a drain on the Reds production for most of this past decade.  The Reds passed on Beckham to take Yonder Alonso, a flawed, but solid college firstbase prospect.  Fast forwarding to the present, the Reds still do not have an answer for shortstop position (and even this year's answer is really no longer a middle infielder). 

That can be addressed tonight at the Draft, which begins at 7:00 EST.  There are some very good shortstop prospects who could be available at the #12 pick, the slot where the Reds find themselves.  If neither of the top shortstops are available at #12, the Reds should take the best player available.  Here is one wish list for the Reds and it only contains players who will probably be picked from #8 through #20...

1.  Manny Machado, Brito Private HS, Hialeah, FL, SS:  A week ago, he was not on the Reds' radar because he probably was going in the top five picks.  But if Kansas City, picking at #4, does indeed have a pre-draft deal with Miami catcher Yasmani Grandal sewn up, Machado may fall to the Reds.  The teams after the Royals are all eyeing pitchers so the Reds may get a gift.  If MLB allowed teams to trade draft picks, this would be a perfect opportunity for the Reds to trade up.  Machado will stay at short and has no weaknesses to speak of except foot speed (he is average). 

2.  Christian Colon, Jr, Cal State Fullerton, SS:  Colon is a better hitter than fielder.  In fact, his arm and range may force him to switch back to his 2009 position, second base.  The good news is that this middle infielder is an on- base machine with power.  He does not have a ridiculous price tag so this is a realistic pick.

3.  Stetson Allie, St. Edward HS, Lakewood, OH, RHP:  It is always risky to pick a high school pitcher.  Each has three less years experience under the belt than any college pitcher and that means three more years to get hurt or flame out.  Rarely do high schoolers help out the big league club within four years.  So this long term project better be really good and he is.  Allie just pitched his high school team to the state championship with high-90s fastballs and sharp breaking stuff.  He is a late riser on draft boards.

4.  Michael Choice, Sr., Texas- Arlington, OF:  This power hitting outfielder should be able to play in the Majors shortly.  His approach at the plate is advanced- he uses the whole field and is extremely patient (he led NCAA Division I in walks for most of the season).  He could possibly stay in centerfield which increases his value even more.

5.  Chris Sale, Jr., Florida Gulf Coast, LHP:  A safer pitcher pick than Allie would be Sale, who does not have the upside of Allie, but has the polish and multiple high- grade pitches to be in the Majors within two or three years.  He has excellent command that leads to plenty of strikeouts (his numbers are ridiculous, but his competition was weak).  His knockout pitch is his changeup.  The future middle- of- the- rotation finishes a distant fifth on this list due to injury concerns-  he throws across his body.

MLB 2010 mlb amateur draft, cincinnati reds, manny machado, chrisitan colon, stetson allie

It was like the AT&T commercial where actor Luke Wilson is in a restaurant and is having a random person text everyone in the whole country who has AT&T.  The random guy asks everyone to text him back to see just how many people have AT&T out there.  His phone starts to buzz so much it falls off of the table.  At 2:15 p.m. today, that happened to me.  My cell phone's text inbox had a life of its own and obviously something big was going on.  And much to my delight, it was the news that the Cincinnati Reds had traded their blunder from last year, Willy Taveras.

Cincinnati Reds GM Walt Jocketty knew that he could not trust manager Dusty Baker to keep Taveras on the bench this season, so he somehow traded him for not just a living, breathing human being, but a useful, living, breathing infielder.  Jocketty dumps Taveras, his $4 million contract and  infielder Adam Rosales on to the Oakland Athletics for veteran infielder Aaron Miles and a player to be named later.  The later player could be a lamppost- it does not matter.  This is grand larceny.  Taveras was one of the worst players in the Major Leagues last year both offensively (.240/ .275/ .285) and defensively and only Baker's insistence to play him was more frustrating than watching him.  He was so bad that Oakland immediately designated Taveras for assignment the moment the trade became official.

The good news does not end there.  Though the Cubs gave the A's $1 million to pay for part of Miles's 2010 salary when they traded him in December, that $1 million stays with the A's in this trade.  The Reds are on the hook for all of Miles' $2.7 contract.  Still, adding in Rosales' minimum contract leaving the books, the Reds end up saving about $1,700,000 on the deal.  They got rid of Taveras and saved money?  What is A's GM Billy Beane thinking?  Nobody could want Taveras and claim his contract or trade for it- the A's will be saddled with it.

This is now the best move of the offseason FOR THE 2010 SEASON that the Reds have made.  The other notable moves are not as important for this season; Adrolis Chapman's days of contributing to the big league will probably begin in 2011 (too many control issues right now- his walk rates in the lowly Cuban leagues were in the four to five per nine innings- yikes! ).  Recently signed shortstop Orlando Cabrera ($2 million for 2010 with a club buyout of $1 million for next year) is a slight upgrade at shortstop.  Though he can hit better than incumbent shortstop Paul Janish, he is nowhere near the fielder that Janish is. 

In fact, the reason that Cabrera signed with the Reds is that they were the only ones who offered him a shortstop job.  Not a good sign.  As long as he hits .285/ .335/ .425, he can overcome the lost defense.  These are not easy demands for the 35-year old Cabrera.  No, getting rid of the last of Dusty Baker's recruits is the biggest move.  By the way, have you noticed how quiet Baker has been this offseason and how few of Baker's "guys" (anyone with awful on- base percentage) were signed.

The trade boosts the Reds' win total from 80 to 84 in my calculations.  If they can stay relatively healthy, get anything out of Chapman, or get big years out of Homer Bailer, Jay Bruce and Johnny Cueto, it could go to 87.  How did I get that calculation?  Simple - addition by substraction.

MLB cincinnati reds, willy taveras, adam rosales, aaron miles, orlando cabrera, adrolis chapman

Just when you thought Reds outfielder Willy Taveras could do no more harm to the Reds...

He is back for Season Two of his contract otherwise known as "Nightmare in Centerfield, The Sequel".  It stars Taveras as the antagonist, Reds Manager Dusty Baker as his sidekick, and hopeful centerfielder Drew Stubbs as the protagonist who cannot win.  The only other possible hero is the mad scientist who created Taveras- Reds GM Walt Jocketty, and he seems to be gagged and bound and locked away under surveillance by Bean Counter Bob Castellini.  Is there any hope for the 2010 Cincinnati Reds?

Taveras is not even playing- nobody is even playing- and he is hurting the Reds badly in a number of ways.  First and foremost, is his $4 million contract for this year.  As a result of this commitment, the Reds have been unable to make any moves besides overpaying declining catcher Ramon Hernandez $3 million.  In fact, the Reds had to decline an arbitration offer to productive outfielder Jonny Gomes because they could not afford the estimated $1.75 million he was probably going to command in arbitration.  The Reds basically have made two separate decisions over the last calendar year to go with Taveras (.240/ .275!!!!!!/ .285!!!!!!) and Hernandez (his line of .258/ .336/ .362 was warped by a blistering hot April and May) over Gomes (.267/ .338/ .541 with 20 HRs in just 281 at bats).

Instead of handing Hernandez that contract, what they should have done- and technically can still do- is sign gold glove second baseman Orlando Hudson (.283/ .357/ .417) to a two- year, $5.5 million contract and move Brandon Phillips to shortstop.  This would have been a huge upgrade at shortstop over Rafeal Belliard- like Paul Janish (.211/ .296/ .305).  They could have signed a different free agent catcher to pair with Ryan Hannigan like defensive whiz Henry Blanco (now with the Mets) or left handed hitting Brian Schneider (now with the Phillies) or once promising Josh Bard (.230/ .293/ .361 in 2009, but in 2007 was .285/ .364/ .404).  The upgrade at shortstop would be significantly better than the Hernandez upgrade (term used loosely here) at catcher.   Or, dream case scenario, some moronic GM (Jim Bowden- where are you?) takes Taveras off your hands and you can afford Hudson, Bard and Gomes.  So next time someone declares that a ballplayer is, "worth a shot", point them to Exhibit A- Wily Taveras, who was not worth a shot because his presence alone is keeping the Reds from upgrading at other positions.

Another part of his presence is his roster spot.  As a result of the Reds' commitment to Taveras, he took the roster spot of Ben Jukich, a minor league pitcher taken with the 20th pick in the Rule 5 Draft by the St. Louis Cardinals.  Jukich had a 4.10 E.R.A. in 123 innings with Triple- A Louisville.  That may not be flashy, but these numbers are; he had 106 strikeouts with only 40 walks and had a groundball to flyball ratio of 1.36.  The Cards plan to convert the lefty into a long or middle reliever.  He may or may not pan out for the Cards, but if he does, Jukich is another Taveras casualty.

Lastly, and this is the scariest part of it all... he could be your Opening Day 2010 centerfielder.  Dusty Baker pushed Walt Jocketty to bring Taveras here.  Baker gave him a crazy amount of chances to prove Baker was correct to recruit him.  And now, the scenario could play out again in March of 2010... stubborn manager somehow back again wanting to justify himself... in just 40 Spring Training at bats, Taveras has some infield hits, bleeders, bloopers and seeing- eye groundballs and he pads his average to .268... Drew Stubbs, on the other hand, hits rockets right at fielders and come away hitting .175 in 30 Spring Training at bats... Taveras makes a diving catch and crashes into a wall- "Wow, he has a new attitude!"... Stubbs easily makes those same catches without diving or crashing and rubs Dusty the wrong way.  Its very possible.  In fact, its probable.

Signing Taveras was the worst move that any major league club made last season.  Small markets teams such as the Reds cannot afford to do that.  They do not have the depth, the finances, and in this case, the managerial prowess to overcome that.  You might have thought that Corey Patterson would have taught them a few lessons.  The Reds must change their free agent philosophy.  They must find the anti- Taveras; a player who can actually get on base and field his position at least adequately.  Some current free agents like Hudson, Gomes, Bard, Ryan Garko, and Kelly Johnson fit that description.  But then again, those guys will all be victims of Willy Taveras.

MLB cincinnati reds, willy taveras

John Fay of the Cincinnati Enquirer recently wrote an article concentrating on reasons for hope for the Cincinnati Reds in 2010.  The one- sided look at the Reds seemed promotional and, for long- suffering Reds fans, repetitive.  The mainstream print media that follows the Reds rarely gives a realistic approach at the present and future (and it too often paints the past with rainbows and pots of gold).  The truth is, the Reds do have some hope for 2010, but there are some major obstacles to overcome- obstacles that most good teams do not have to deal with.  So as the 2009 season comes to a close, here are a realist's top seven reasons to fill your Reds mug half- full, followed by the top seven reasons to pour out the contents of your Reds mug.

Top Seven Positives for the 2010 Reds Season:

7.  Though bullpens are the most unpredictable group on any Major League team from year- to- year, this group seems a strong bet to be amongst the NL's best again next year.  Nick Masset (1.03 WHIP, 70 Ks in 76 IP), Arthur Rhodes (1.07 WHIP, 48 Ks in 53.33 IP) and Francisco Cordero (1.32 WHIP, 58 K in 66.66 IP), in that order, would star in anyone's bullpen.  Carlos Fisher, Daniel Ray Herrera, and Jared Burton are solid, promising setup men who are cheap, just like they are supposed to be.

6.  The 27-13 finish in the last 40 games is pretty impressive.  Sure, it seemed like they played the Pirates and Astros for half of those games, but aren't they supposed to beat bad teams?  Do the critics want them to lose those games?  At the same time, it was the Pirates and Astros and those teams were fielding minor league lineups that would lose consistently in Triple- A; as a result, it's hard to measure just how good Drew Stubbs, Wladimir Balentien, and Darnell McDonald are.  Remember, Joe Nunnally and Chris Stines had hot Septembers too.

5.  Jay Bruce had a huge last month.  Going into the last weekend of the season, in which he continued to sit the bench for long stretches (?!?!),  Bruce was mashing at a .353/ .463/ .765 clip since his return from the DL.  The Reds still need a big bat in the middle of the lineup (Scott Rolen is not that bat) and Bruce is the only hope for that answer.

4.  The Reds' defense is vastly improved from the start of the year.  Edwin Encarnacion, the starting third basemen on Opening Day, has been the worst fielding 3B by all advanced defensive metrics every year for the last THREE years!  Alex Gonzalez had lost a step or two at shortstop and Willy Taveras, Manager Dusty Baker's personal recruit to play center field, showed that he was almost as awful in the field as he was at the plate.  They have been replaced by Rolen, Paul Janish, and Stubbs respectively and the comparison is like night and day.  Not to be overlooked is Jay Bruce's stellar outfield play.  If he had not been injured and missed almost two months, he would probably have led the league in outfield assists and deserved a gold glove.

3.  Its probable that Homer Bailey has turned the corner and become the star pitcher that everyone envisioned for years.  Every contender needs a hammer and with Aaron Harang no longer in that role, Bailey seems ready to lead the Reds in their biggest games.  With Bailey, Bronson Arroyo, Johnny Cueto, and Harang as the probable #1 through #4 starters, the Reds rival the Cardinals for the best starting staff in the NL Central going into the offseason.

2.  The emergence of young players such as Bruce, Bailey, Joey Votto, Balentien, Herrera, Fisher, Stubbs, Janish, Ryan Hanigan and a few others have tremendously upgraded the overall talent of this roster over the past year.  Compare those names to these winners from 2008:  Corey Patterson, Andy Phillips, Scott Hatteberg, Norris Hopper, Danny Richar, Ryan Freel, Jolbert Cabrera, Gary Majewski, and Matt Belisle.  Sure some of these guys played sparingly (Phillips and Hatteberg), but some were counted on to play major roles in 2008:  Freel, Majewski, Belisle and, of course, Patterson.  Yikes!  The Reds are much deeper today.

1.  The NL Central is weak and may be weaker next year.  This season, Pittsburgh proceded to build for the future by trading bad players for more bad players.  There is no light appearing in their tunnel yet.  Houston has an aging roster and the worst minor league system in all of baseball- not a good combination.  Chicago is similar to Houston; they have an aging roster, a thin minors, but add on some expensive contracts that hang like albatrosses in the form of Milton Bradley, Kosuke Fukudome and Carlos Zambrano.  Milwaukee may have the worst starting pitching staff in the NL this side of the Potomic River.  That leaves the Reds and Cardinals.  The Cardinals cannot resign Matt Holliday, Mark DeRosa, Troy Glaus, Rick Ankiel, Joel Pineiro and Todd Wellemeyer- all free agents.  Their defections will hurt, but only Holliday is irreplaceable.  If they re- sign him, the Reds are playing for the Wild Card.

Top Seven Negatives for the 2010 Reds Season:

7.  Scott Rolen's age has affected his hitting.  His power numbers are down.  Since 2006, when he slugged .518 for the Cardinals, he has slugged .398, .431 and .401 in the second half for the Reds (though he slugged .476 with the Blue Jays before he was traded).  His leadership and defense are still outstanding, but he should hit in the #2 spot in the order now because he is a different hitter.  This may not be a problem on most teams, but our inept manager will miscast him and therefore, underuse him in the fifth slot.

6.  Edison Volquez is out of action until next July and there is no satisfactory candidate to be the fifth starter.  Justin Lehr is a good #8 starter so he should be signed to a minor league contract.  Micah Ownings is not a major league pitcher or hitter.  Matt Maloney is possible, but inspires no confidence.  Triple- A pitcher Travis Wood (1.21 WHIP, 32 Ks in 48.66 IP) is probably the best answer.

5.  Willy Taveras is under contract for one more year.  It is easy for us to say that Reds owner Bob Castellini should eat the $4 million- its not our money.  Odds are that Taveras is back for 2010 and, combined with Manager Dusty Baker's affection for him, its possible he may still be starting in CF and batting first.  We can only pray that Drew Stubbs does not slump in Goodyear, Arizona or GM Walt Jocketty takes the Taveras toy away from little Dusty.  Early odds of Taveras starting on Opening Day:  2:1.

4.  The Reds Minor Leagues are as thin as they have been since the barren years of the Jim Bowden regime.  Some of it is just natural; you do not graduate talent like Bruce, Votto, Bailey and Stubbs and maintain lofty talent rankings.  But some of it is poor drafting.  There are no impact players of the ilk of Bruce and Bailey in the entire system.  Yonder Alonzo is the closest with Yorman Rodriguez, newly drafted Billy Hamilton, and 2009 ninth- round steal Brian Pearl having some underdog possibilities.  There are solid prospects like Todd Frazier, Chris Heisey, Juan Francisco, Ezequiel Infante and Zach Cozart and arguably one or two others, but then the talent falls off a cliff.

3.  Either shortstop or catcher needs to be upgraded for next year.  It is hard to have three sinkholes (including the pitcher) in any lineup, particularly when the moron making the lineup will pencil one sinkhole in the #2 slot.  Janish batted a miserable .211/ .296/ .305 in 256 at bats.  Ryan Hanigan, the likely starter next year, batted .263/ .361/ .331 in 251 at bats, but those numbers were inflated by a hot start to the year.  Both are excellent defensive players and deserve to be on the roster, but only one can start on a NL team.  A trade for a catcher who can get on base at a .350 clip or moving Brandon Phillips to shortstop and signing Orlando Hudson to play second base are the two best options.

2.  Dusty Baker's lineup skills are in a unverse all by themselves and that universe is Bizarro World.  This column has criticized Baker over the last two years and last Sunday, Baseball Prospectus took their turn roasting Baker.  Now the ball is back in our court.  To his credit, the man has fantastic people skills.  His stories and memories have won over the local press so much so that they refuse to expose the man for the fraudulent manager that he is.  To borrow a stat from Baseball Prospectus... Baker's combined 2009 number one and number two hitters in the lineup hit .245/ .301/ .345!!!!  Staggering.  Playing Taveras and then batting him leadoff was bad enough, but hitting Janish second?  How did the Reds win 78 games?  Any replacement for Baker would be an upgrade, including my son's Kindergarten teacher.

1.  The Reds' 2010 payroll is as flexible as Rush Limbaugh on the health care debate.  Cordero ($12 million), Harang ($12.5 million), Arroyo ($11 million) and Rolen ($11 million) will make up around two- thirds of the total payroll, which should be roughly $70 million.  Add on Phillips ($6 million), Taveras ($4 million), Mike Lincoln ($2.5 million) and Rhodes ($2 million) and $61 million of the $70 million payroll is already allocated.  With only Phillips and Rhodes being appealing in a trade (but unlikely to go)... ladies and gentlemen, meet your 2010 Cincinnati Reds.  They have needs are little means to satisfy them.

MLB cincinnati reds, 2010 cincinnati reds, homer bailey, jay bruce, edinson volquez

It was pathetic, yet predictable, that we recently heard the Cincinnati Reds blame their awful season on injuries.  This excuse is flat out wrong.  This season's fate was very predictable well before the injury bug appeared.  It was easy to foresee doom after many, many poor decisions made by the Front Office over the last three years.  Here are the Top Ten Worst Front Office Decisions that led to this Reds debacle that we currently have.  But before that... the gloating:  there is no hindsight/ 20-20  judgement on any of these moves- every one of these moves was criticized by yours truly WHEN THEY HAPPENED.  On with the list...

10.  Signing Alex Gonzalez to a three- year, $14.5 million dollar contract:  Quit complaining that he never played.  When he did play, he was awful.  He was hitting .207/ .254/ .295 this year.  He contributed more last year by NOT playing at all.

9.  Trading Edwin Encarnancion, Josh Roenicke, and Zach Stewart to Toronto for 3B Scott Rolen:  Sure Rolen is a major upgrade over Encarnacion, but he is in his mid- 30s, injury- prone, expensive, and only signed for one more year.  Giving up two of the five prospects for Rolen was a steal for the Blue Jays and a ditch digger for the Reds.

8.  Signing Corey Patterson to a one- year deal to play CF in 2008:  Dusty Baker campaigned to get Patterson and he stubbornly gave him 344 at bats to hit .207/ .254/ .295 and drag the Reds down.  And Baker wondered why people thought Patterson was dating his daughter.

 7.  Signing Edwin Encarnacion to a two- year contract worth $7.6 million dollars:  This led to GM Walt Jocketty having to throw in Roenicke and Stewart to get the Blue Jays to take Encarnacion off of the Reds' hands.  If the Reds decline him arbitration, he is a free agent, the Reds still have Roenicke and Stewart, the Reds are still in 5th place, but they have a brighter future.

6.  Drafting Yonder Alonso instead of Gordon Beckham in the first round of the 2008 Draft:  One of the Reds' biggest holes to fill this off- season is shortstop.  There is no capable shortstop on the roster or in their minor leagues (except present second baseman Brandon Phillips).  That would not be a problem if they would have taken Beckham, who was scooped up immediately with the next pick by the White Sox.  Beckham is presently hitting .299/ .373/ .470 at the Major League level.  Instead, the Reds have a guy pushing Joey Votto, one of their few indepensible players.

5.  Trading Adam Dunn:  Public pressure trumped logic and production and the Reds sent Dunn to Arizona for peanuts.  Now, Dunn plays first base for the Naitonals and is hitting .285/ .417/ .580 while the Reds roll out Lance Nix and Johnny Gomes into leftfield.  Gomes is a good backup for the Reds and Nix is... a good backup in Triple- A.

4.  Signing Willy Taveras to a two- year contract worth $6.25 million:  What made anyone think Taveras was a major leaguer?  His history, his statistics, and his past teams' transactions involving him should have kept Jocketty (and Baker- he lobbied for Taveras) away.  It kept every other MLB team away.  The Reds outbid themselves for a Triple- A speedster.  They must eat his contract for next year and let Drew Stubbs play center field every day.  Speaking of Stubbs...

3.  Drafting Drew Stubbs instead of SP Tim Lincecum:  Stubbs is an excellent defender who can steal a base and has a great baseball makeup.  He is not an impact player.  He may struggle to hit .280 or get on- base more than .340.  A huge upgrade over Taveras- absolutely, but he is not Lincecum.  Drafting Lincecum would have given the Reds a #1 starter the past three years and would have made a difference of 8 or 10 more wins in the standings.  He would have brought more fans to the park, which would, in turn, bring more money into the Front Office, which would mean more money to spend on payroll, international signings, etc.

2.  Signing Francisco Cordero to a four- year, $47 million contract:  If you are the Yankees, Mets or the Red Sox, you can pay your closer $12 million a year.  Almost every else realizes that closers grow on trees so this is a great area to save money.  Todd Coffey (if he were still here), Arthur Rhodes, Bill Bray (last year), Jared Burton (last year), and David Weathers (up until last week) would have produced almost the same results for a lot less money.  With this available cash, the Reds could have spent on Adam Dunn or a real center fielder like Tori Hunter.

1.  Hiring Dusty Baker:  The guy is an ace with the media and has many of them snowed, but he cannot fool all of us.  He is the absolute worst manager AT ANY LEVEL when it comes to making out a lineup.  He lobbied for Patterson (.238 OBP) and Taveras (.276 OBP and no power) and then played them more than anyone else would have while also batting them at the top of the lineup.  In the two- hole, he used Alex Gonzalez (.254 OBP) and more recenltly, Paul Janish (.291 OBP).  What we have here is stubborn idiocy.  Joey Votto is going to hit .315 with 25 home runs in about 500 at bats and only have 80 RBI because nobody was ever on base in front of him.

Honorable Mention:  Drafting Devon Mesoraco who is looking like a huge bust.

Do not let the Reds fool you.  They - not the injury bug- are responsible for another losing season.  Is it fixable?  Stay tuned... I have some ideas.

MLB cincinnati reds, alex gonzalez, edwin encarnacion, corey patterson, yonder alonso, adam dunn, willy taveras, drew stubbs, francisco cordero, dusty baker, devon mesoraco

The Cincinnati Reds' midterm report card was mailed home this past week.  Let's go to the mailbox...

Manager, Dusty Baker:  F... His inexplicable insistance to play Willy Taveras and bat him first merits a pink slip.  This move alone has probably cost the Reds multiple games this year and it is not going to change any time soon.  Baker is a stubborn man who has consistently done this in the past with such notables as Neifi Perez and Corey Patterson.  He is who is he is and nobody is going to change that.  It is frustrating to watch his lineups flounder and it will lead him onto the same road to the Managerial Graveyard that Ray Knight and Bob Boone took out of here.

General Manager, Walt Jocketty:  C... Although Dusty Baker pushed for the Taveras signing, it was ultimately Jocketty's decision to sign the man who has cost the Reds so dearly.  The second biggest mistake he made was not signing or trading for a right handed bat, but there was not much on the market.  On the plus side, he did grab Johnny Gomes and Lance Nix for the bench- two solid moves.  Re-signing David Weathers and bringing in Arthur Rhodes were good moves.  The Ramon Hernandez addition has been a big improvement over last year's catchers.

Chris Buckley, Scouting Director:  C... The Reds' draft in June was conservative.  In the first round, there were plenty of high- ceiling, high school pitchers available, but the Reds were scared of their price tags and went with Mike Leake, a college pitcher, who should have been drafted about 12 to 15 picks later.  That has been Buckley's strategy for most of the past few years.  The lone exception was the 2007 pick of high school catcher Devin Mesoraco who has been nothing short of a disappointment.  Outside of Leake, the best two picks amongst the Reds 51 selections were second- round pick Billy Hamilton from Taylorsville HS (MS) who is generally regarded as the best athelte in the state of Mississippi and Cal State Fullerton outfielder Josh Fellhauer (7th round) who can just plain hit.

Ramon Hernandez, C/ 1B:  C... Filled in admirably at first base when Joey Votto was on the DL, but has been outplayed in almost every facet of the game by his backup.

Ryan Hanigan, C:  A... With a line of .338/ .429/ .407, he deserves to play a lot more, but that will not happen with his present manager (do the Assistant Coaches say anything to Baker about his lineups or are they just as oblivious?).  His defense behind the plate is the best Reds fans have seen in a long, long time.

Joey Votto, 1B: A-... If he had not missed over 30 games with stress disorder, his grade would have probably been an A+.  He is easily the Reds' best player and is one of their best hitters of this lost decade.  It is too bad so few teammates are on base when he is hitting.  I wonder if there is another three- hole hitter in MLB who hits with less people on base than Joey Votto.

Brandon Phillips, 2B: A- ... At seond base, Phillips is an elite player.  If he played any corner position, he would be an average player.  He would be a better hitter if he pulled the ball more and got rid of his inside- out swing that creates flyballs to RF.  He is one of the worst outside- pitch hitters I've ever seen.

Jerry Hairston, U: D... His specialty, on- base percentage, is now his albatross.  A .307 OBP, while easily beating Taveras' OBP, does not cut it if you do not have power.  I would sure like to see him steal more bases.

Paul Janish, SS: D... Janish is a great fielder- as good as Alex Gonzalez, but he cannot hit major league pitching.  He shows no sign of getting better either.

Alex Gonzalez, SS: F... The Reds signed Gonzalez to a three- year, $15 million contract in winter of 2006- 2007 and have almost nothing to show for it.  He had 393 at bats in 2007, none in 2008, and 182 unproductive at bats this year.  His pre- injury stat line of .214/ .256/ .302 would find him cut on most MLB teams, but it found him batting second for Dusty Baker!  Unbelieveable.

Edwin Encarnacion: 3B, F... This grade may change the most in the season's second half.  Look for Encarnacion to be the second most productive Red over the next three months now that he's fully healthy.  It would be nice if his manager batted him fourth or fifth instead of seventh or eighth.  Unbelieveable.

Adam Rosales, U: F... He has won the hearts of Reds fans, but he is really is not even a major league sub.  His numbers are worse than Taveras':  .198/ .285/ .282.

Drew Sutton, U: I... He has not had enough at bats with the Reds yet, but his patience at the plate has been impressive.  He better be careful with that patience, that will get him buried on the bench on this club.  Unbeliveable.

Laynce Nix, OF: C... Nix is a great bench player, but not a starter.  The league has begun to catch up to him and his numbers have recently declined.  He should never, ever, face a left handed pitcher.

Jonny Gomes, OF: B-... He is very similar to Nix.  He is not quite as good on defense, but is an good platoon player from the right hand side.

Chris Dickerson, OF: B-... He plays superior defense to Taveras, runs the bases as well as Taveras (except he needs to get dirty on pick off throws!), has more power than Taveras, and reaches base far more often than Taveras.  As a result, Dusty Baker plays Taveras.  Unbelieveable. 

Jay Bruce, OF:  C+ ... Sure, his offensive numbers are disappointing and he will now be out of the lineup until September, but his defense has progressed such that he is one of the better defensive outfielders in the league and his power numbers are still alive and kicking.

Willy Taveras, OF: F- ... What is worse than his .243/ .285/ .294 line from the leadoff spot?  How about another year of it?  He is signed through 2010!  His defense has been just as bad as his hitting- how can a centerfielder be tied for third on a team in errors?  He consistently gets terrible breaks on balls hit behind him.  Finally, he has only stolen 17 bases this year is just 22 attempts.  Why is he not running?  Watch his running habits- he rarely steals within five pitches on getting on base.  He has a negative value and is not a major leaguer.

Aaron Harang, SP: C- ... He has never been the same since Baker used him in extended relief in San Diego last season.  He has been inconsistent, but not as inconsistent as...

Bronson Arroyo, SP: C ... His numbers (5.07 E.R.A., 1.45 WHIP, 21 HRs allowed in 119 innings) are somewhat misleading.  He has had a few outings in which he was awful, but at the same time, he is on a 16- inning scoreless streak that could signal another second- half surge for Arroyo.

Edison Volquez, SP:  D ... The Verducci Effect is real.  I noted that Volqez qualified for it after last year.  Hopefully, you fantasy players listened and stayed away from him at your drafts.  If you did not pay attention, here is that rule again:  A major league pitcher who is under 25 should not throw 30 more innings than the previous season's total (unless there was an injury).  If he does so, cue the D.L. for the following season.

Micah Owings, SP:  C+ ... I'm not sure Owings will ever get more than a C+.  He is just not that good.  He is a major league #5 starter who can hit. 

Johnny Cueto, SP: B+ ... His two most recent starts have been terrible and have ruined some great first half numbers.  At the same time, he had been one of the luckiest pitchers in the Majors up to that time at stranding runners on base.  That eventually catches up to people, just ask Jimmy Haynes.

Homer Bailey, SP:  C- ... The big reason he was having so much success in Triple- A recently was his newly found pitch, the split fingered fastball.  So why is he not throwing it much here?  Is it because hitters here will lay off of the pitch?  If so, his recent success will be mixed in with poor outings and he will only be a back- end rotation thrower.  Better control of his fastball is the other key.

The Bullpen:  A- ... The strength of this team is led by overpaid All- Star Francisco Cordero and the dominant Arthur Rhodes.  David Weathers has not been nearly as bad as some may think (3.26 E.R.A, 1.22 WHIP, 14 BB, 19 K in 30.3 innings).  He has just blown up in some close games.  Nick Masset has been a pleasant surprise and youngsters Josh Roenicke, Daniel Ray Herrera, Robert Manuel and Carlos Fisher have helped and should contribute for years (especially Herrera).  Jared Burton has been the big disappointment here.

Overall:  C- ... It could have been a lot better.  The season seems to be slowly slipping away here in July.  It feels like an inevitable breakup with a girlfriend- you know the bad news is coming, but you want to avoid it.  As the Trade Deadline approaches over the next two weeks, the Reds should certainly be sellers and not buyers.  They do not match up with the Brewers and Cardinals and still will not match up after adding a bat.  If they added a bat, got some positive consistency from the starting pitching, fired a manager, and cut a centerfielder then hope would still shine, but that is not going to happen.

MLB reds, cincinnati reds, dustay baker, walt jocketty, chris buckley, ramon hernandez, ryan hanigan, brandon phillips, jerry hairston, paul janish, alex gonzalez, adam rosales, drew sutton, laynce nix, jonny gomes, chris dickerson, jay bruce, willy taveras, aaron harang, bronson arroyo, edinson volquez, micah owings, johnny cueto, homer bailey

The rumors, whispers, and contract feelers are in full motion for the MLB Draft tonight and one particular report caught my eye.  As a result, I want a mulligan on one of my draft hopefuls, Alex White, for the Reds at #8 overall.  A recent report from Baseball Prospectus questions White's desire to compete and, after watching the Cincinnati Bengals for the past 18 years, that is good enough reason to remove him from my list.  In his place goes:

My pick: Mike Leake, RHP, ASU:  Leake reminds me a lot of Tim Lincecum in that his size scares people off and yet, he still dominates.  Leake actually has a better E.R.A. than Stephen Strasburg (1.23 to 1.32) while playing against better competition.  He could help any major league team by 2011.

Probable pick:  Aaron Crow, RHP, Independent League:  The Reds drafted some high-risk high school players with big ceilings in the middle of this decade, but have settled on experienced college players the past few years under the leadership of Scouting Director Chris Buckley.  That trend will continue today as they take a safe pick in Crow, who will be an above average major league pitcher.

Minor Leagues, MLB reds, mlb draft, alex white, mike leake, aaron crow

Today, Major League Baseball moves its draft to the big stage- live television.  While it will never generate the same glory and hype of its sister drafts in the NFL and NBA, the MLB Draft has attracted more attention over the last ten years for several reasons:  1.)  teams' increased reliance on the farm system, 2.) the explosion of the internet and 3.) teams have more reliable information that seemingly has led to more reliable picks. 

For the Cincinnati Reds, post Jim Bowden nightmare days, the draft has been the reason for the recent revival.  Jay Bruce, Homer Bailey, Yonder Alonso, and Drew Stubbs all were recent #1 picks and all look to be contributors to pulling the dream from a perpetual losing cycle.  (The other post- Bowden #1 pick, Devin Mesorasco, looks to be a huge flop.)  So who is this year's crucial Reds pick?  Its a complete guess and is not worth the time.  But a wish list of players to avoid and players to crave at #9 overall is a task worth taking.  So we start with an asterisk... the Reds have no chance of selecting wunderkid Stephen Strasburg or even North Carolina's Dustin Ackley so let's not even consider them...

PLAYERS TO AVOID
1.  Kyle Gibson, RHP, Missouri:  In Baseball America's mock draft from last Friday, they had the Reds taking Gibson.  This would be a shock unless the Reds have been asleep the past month.  Gibson's velocity has dropped to the mid 80s.  The Missouri coaching staff claims its forearm tightness and nothing to worry about.  Well, that diagnosis seems to be the preamble to major shoulder problems and spending $6- $7 million on probable shoulder problems does not sound like a sound investment.

2.  Aaron Crow, RHP, Fort Worth Cats:  The Reds almost took Crow last year, but passed him on down to Bowden and the Nationals who did not sign him.  Crow is pitching well in the Independent League, but there is not a single scouting report out there that thinks he is a potential #1 or #2 starter.

3.  Bobby Borchering, 3B, HS:  Sure, this kid has a high ceiling and is one of the best high school position players in the draft, but he plays 3B and the Reds are loaded in the Minors at that position.

WATCH DRAFT ONLINE

PLAYERS TO HOPE FOR
1.  Donavan Tate, OF, HS:  Many outlets have him as the best athlete in the draft.  He probably will not last until #9. but his agent, the Devil himself, Scott Boras, may scare some teams away.

2.  Tyler Matzek, LHP, HS:  There is a glut of highly regarded high school pitchers in this draft.  Matzek just recently moved to the front of this pack.

3.  Grant Green, SS, USC:  His performance this year has dropped his stock slightly from #2 overall to a mid- first rounder.  Still, he is, by far, the best shortstop available and shortstop is a position of need for the Reds and that is putting it mildly.

4.  Jacob Turner, RHP, HS:  The hard- throwing righty is running neck and neck with Matzek for the distinction of first high school pitcher picked.  He has a smooth delivery, which is always a health bonus.  He is also represented by the Devil so he may drop to the Reds.

5.  Alex White, RHP, UNC:  College pitchers have more polish, more years of health on their arms, and they can start at higher levels of the Minors.  Alex White could help the Reds by late 2010 or early 2011. 

MLB reds, mlb draft, kyle gibson, aaron crow, bobby borchering, donavan tate, tyler matzek, grant green, jacob turner, alex white

More Jim Bowden from loyal reader Stephen Cassady, Baseball America:

It turns out that Nationals shortstop prospect Esmailyn Gonzalez isn’t 19. Or that is he is Esmailyn Gonzalez for that matter.

Instead, sources have told SI.com that Gonzalez is actually 23 and that his real name is Carlos Alvarez Daniel Lugo.

Gonzalez was BA’s No. 10 Nationals prospect entering this season, which will be his third since singing a controversial, $1.4 million bonus out of the Dominican Republic. But given the revelations about his age, Gonzalez certainly would not have made BA’s Nationals Top 10 list.

COMPLETE ARTILCE

Amazing!!

MLB nationals, jim bowden, esmailyn gonzalez, carlos alvarez daniel lugo

This article has a different Reds spin to it...

In light of the Cincinnati Bengals' idiotic move to slap the franchise tag on their kicker, Shane Graham, I was asked if Mike Brown was a worse General Manager than Washington Nationals' GM, Jim Bowden.  There is no hesitation to this answer... its Bowden by a landslide.  Here are ten reasons why:

1.  Bowden has been investigated by MLB for illegal activities in Latin American signings.  In other words, they suspected he was skimming bonus money to international players or allowing it to happen.

2.  It is universally agreed upon that the Nationals have one of the worst farm systems in all baseball (sound familiar Reds fans?).  To add insult to injury, they did not sign their first round draft pick from 2009, Missouri RHP Aaron Crow.

3.  Attendance at their brand new ballpark plummetted as the year wore on and their TV and radio ratings were disappointing.

4.  Bowden could not bring free agent hometown slugger, Mark Teixeira, back to Washington despite offering $20 million more than anyone else.

5.  Bowden signed Adam Dunn, easily their best player now, to a two- year, $20 million contract when the next best offer was one- year at $5 million.  He bid against himself and had to grossly outbid himself to get Dunn to join his best friend, Austin Kearns, in Washington.

6.  As it stands right now, Bowden has spent the following on his starting pitching (numbers refer to 2009 contracts and are in the millions of dollars):

• Scott Olsen  $2.8 million
• John Lannan  $500K
• Daniel Cabrera  (picked up on waivers last month)  $2.6million
• Shawn Hill  $775K
• Odalis Perez  (signed to a minor league deal) $750K
  

Summary:  Most teams in the Major Leagues would have none of these guys in their rotations.  The Nationals are like salmon swimming upstream as they are going against all logic and spending the least amount possible on their starting staff... $7.425 million.

7.  So maybe they saved on the starting rotation in order to spend big bucks on a top- notch bullpen.  Let's check it out.  The following are the Nationals' likely bullpen all- stars and their salaries:

• Joel Hanrahan $500K
• Steven Shell  $500K
• Saul Rivera  $500K
• Michael Hinckley $500K
• Jason Bergman  $750K
• Terrell Young (Rule 5 pick from the Reds) $400K
• Matt Chico  $500K

Summary:  Who are these guys?  Tim Costo and Greg Tubbs are more memorable Reds than these hacks will be in Washington.  Will any be in the Majors in two years?  Their salaries add up to $3.65 million.  That would be a total of $11.075 for the entire forgettable pitching staff.

8.  Maybe these salaries are excuseable if the franschise is cutting costs everywhere, a la the Florida Marlins every four years.  No sensible General Manager would spend $40 million on the position players and forget about the pitching staff.  No GM would neglect the most important part of the recipe for winning in baseball... would he?  For those that have had enough pain for one article, turn away now...

LF:
Adam Dunn $10 million
Josh Willingham  $1.5 million (arbitration eligible)
Wily Mo Pena  $2 million
--total:  $13.5 on left fielders (could be more depending on Willingham)

CF:
Lastins Milledge  $500K
Willie Harris  $1.5 million
Corey Patterson (you read that correctly) $500K
--total:  $2.5 million on center fielders

RF:
Elijah Dukes  $500K
Austin Kearns $8 million
--total:  $8.5 for right fielders

IF & C:
Nick Johnson, 1B  $5.5 million
Dmitri Young, 1B  $5 million
Ronnie Belliard, 2B/ 1B  $1.9 million
Anderson Hernandez, 2B  $500K
Christian Guzman, SS  $8 million
Ryan Zimmerman, 3B  $500K
Jesus Flores, C  $500K
Javier Valentin, C  $500K
--total:  $22.4 million for this group

Summary:  Not all of these position players will initially make the team-  Dmitri Young being the most likely candidate to see Triple- A.  But his contract is guarenteed so these numbers are pretty accurate and that means... the Nationals are spending $46.9 million on their position players.  Absolutely mindboggling.  How could a roster be constructed like this?  Their defense is awful.  Picture Dunn in left, Milledge, a career right fielder in center, and Pena in right.  There are better high school outfields.  This makes their neglected pitching staff even worse and realistically, the staff should break records... as in "worst E.R.A. of all- time, most HRs allowed in one season, most walks in one season, etc."

9.  Nationals fans are trapped in a vicious circle.  Their Major League team will lose 100 games.  The minor leagues have very little talent from consistently poor drafts and almost no productive foreign scouting.  Free agents have to be drastically overpaid to come there.  This spiral downwards is hard to break, particularly when there are no signs it will stop.  Just as it took seven to eight years to recoup from Bowden's Reign of Terror in Cincinnati, it will take the same in Washington once he is fired.  Speaking of Cincinnati...

10.  The Reds were terrible when Bowden was in Cincinnati from 1992 to 2003 (except for 1994, 1995 and the lucky year of 1999).  The people he employed and trusted made bad decision after bad decision that sent the Reds into the vicious cycle that was just mentioned.  So what has Bowden done is his new surroundings in Washington?  He brought those same people with him and look where they are now.  And just how many people did he bring?  Thanks to our Getsportsinfo.com researcher, Todd Cassady, we supply the daunting list of former Reds that have been with the Nationals is some capacity since Bowden took over:

So Bengal fans are depressed after another inexplicable Mike Brown manuever.  They have had 18 years of depression with one exception.  I say at least there has been some hope at times.  At least, there have been .500 seasons and some talent is build from.  Sure, Benglas have made enough stupid moves to write a book (Akili Smith, Dave Klinger, Big Duddy, Chris Henry, etc.), but they also have experienced a lot of bad luck too (David Pollack, Ki-jana Carter, a strong division, etc.).  Bowden has disassembled talented teams and kept them down.  He has not been unlucky, he has been an idiot.  He gets my nod for King Idiot and thank goodness he no longer is employed by the Reds.  Which brings me to my final point... how is he employed by the Nationals?

MLB reds, nationals, jim bowden

Say it ain't so Walt.  The Reds cannot be finished with their off- season plan.  There must have been an oversight in the general vacinity between centerfield and the leftfield line.  Can't they put Chris Dickerson in left field?  He is an unproven, but probable fourth or fifth outfielder who may be better than starting center fielder, Willy Taveras, but that says as much as Paris Hilton on any given day.  Can Jerry Hairston Jr. play left field?  Its possible, but, in all likelihood, he will be playing shortstop because there is no indication that Alex Gonzalez will be healthy enough to play there this year.  Even if Gonzalez is healthy enough to play, the money here says that his mobility is severely hampered by his injury.  So what is the answer to the left field problem (usually one of the easiest spots to fill)?  There must be some answers still out there or this team's offense will land it squarely in fourth place at the absolute best.  Fear not, there are some options available and here they are, in order of preference...

Plan A:  Sign the controversial Manny Ramirez to a two- year $40 million contract.  Yes, he is an idiot, plays porous defense, and has none of the leadership qualities so badly needed in this clubhouse.  But there is nobody that fits into this lineup better than he.  Manny would hit cleanup between Joey Votto and Jay Bruce, providing protection for both.  The power he generates will only be boosted at GABP.  He is also an on- base machine, which means Bruce and Edwin Encarnacion could see monster RBI totals which can only help the Reds in the long run.  Finally, Ramirez would put bodies into the seats and could pay for much of his salary at the turnstiles as he keeps the Reds near the top of the division.  But alas, this is a pipedream because the sticker shock on him prevents Walt Jocketty from even reaching for his phone.

Plan B:  Sign the aging Bobby Abreu to play left field.  He has never been a prolific power hitter, but he is still getting on base, stealing bases, scoring runs and playing average defense.  He could bat second or even first after the Willy Taveras experiment fails (that will be sometime in late May).  Check out his qualifications:

2006: .297/ .424/ .462, 15 HRs, 107 RBIs, 98 Runs, and 30 SBs
2007: .283/ .369/ ..445, 16 HRs, 101 RBIs, 123 Runs and 25 SBs
2008:  .296/ .371/ .471, 20 HRs, 100 RBIs, 100 Runs and 22 SBs

Abreu turns 35 next month and is definitely on the decline.  His price tag is also on the decline and if Pat Burrell is worth $16 million over two years then Abreu should eventually realize that his cost is about the same.

Plan C:  I have always said that I would never move Brandon Phillips off of second base.  It represents a big downgrade of that position and who knows how he will react to playing shortstop, his likely destination.  There is one exception to this stance.  The only person who can fill in for Phillips at second base and make it an upgrade is Orlando Hudson.  He is an elite defensive second basemen who is above average on offense;  his last three years, he has compiled on- base percentages of .354, .376, .367.  Phillips would move to shortstop, the position he played his whole life until just a few years ago.  He may have some initial struggles getting used to the position again, but Phillips is the most athletic player on the Reds and he, of all players, can make a transition like this happen.  Think about it; the Reds did the exact same thing to Jeff Keppinger last year.  Phillips will make the transition quicker, easier and better than Keppinger.  Once he adjusts, the Reds will have the best middle infield defense in the Major Leagues.  Baseball Prospectus recently reported that Hudson had received no contract offers from anyone because his asking price was too high and because he has been injured a lot recently.  Once his price comes into the Reds stratosphere, sign him and move Hairston to left field.

Plan D:  Go to Spring Training and hope youngsters Todd Frazier, Chris Valeika and/ or Drew Stubbs are more ready than you thought they were.  This is highly unlikely and it brings us back to the current situation... who plays left field.... legitimately?  Entering a season with Dickerson in left and Taveras in center cannot really be the final draft.  The Royals and Pirates have better plans than that.  Some options- good options- are still out there.

MLB reds, walt jocketty, jerry hairston jr., willy taveras, bobby abreu, manny ramirez, orlando hudson, todd frazier, chris valeika, drew stubbs