With the Cincinnati Reds signing 1B and reigning MVP Joey Votto to a three- year, $38 million deal Sunday, the Reds' overall offseason work now looks adequate.  Barely.  The Reds have largely remained inactive and unproductive this offseason.  They have failed to add a leadoff hitter, improve an average- at best- bench, and still do not have a hammer to go at the top of the rotation.  Here is a breakdown of their significant moves and a grade for each...

EXTENTIONS
1.  Jay Bruce signed to a six- year, $51 million contract with a $13 million option for 2017:  this was the Reds' best offseason move by far.  They locked up their next  superstar for two or three years beyond his arbitration years and probably saved money in the process.  Grade A+

2.  Votto's three- year, $38 million deal:  though there are many who question the length of deal, Votto was probably standing firm on just three years.  With that parameter to work with, the Reds figured that in return for giving him his free agency in three years, he could give them a discount on his salary over those three years.  Votto would have probably earned $8 million in arbitration this year so that means he is getting $30 million total in 2012 and 2013.  This is less than the $34 million that Ryan Howard earned in years five and six of his career and Votto is much better than Howard.  Grade:  A

FREE AGENT ADDITIONS
1.  Dontrelle Willis, LHP:  since he was signed to a minor league deal, Willis is really not much of a risk.  If he is effective as a left handed reliever in Triple- A, the Reds did very well here.  The key here is letting Willis prove himself at Triple- A and NOT in Cincinnati where he could really hurt if ineffective.  Grade:  B

2.  Jeremy Hermida, OF: Hermida is a virtual lock for the Opening Day roster because he is a left handed hitter.  He and Fred Lewis will probably be the only left handed hitters on the bench.  The problem is Hermida, once considered the Marlins' top prospect, has struggled mightily lately in the Majors.  In 222 at bats with Oakland (his fourth organization in the last 17 months- never a good sign) last year, Hermida hit .216/ .268/ .351 with a .619 OPS.  The good news is that this guy was batting third for the Marlins just three seasons ago and he is only 26 years old.  Maybe he's a late bloomer.  His talent says that he is worth a shot.  Grade:  C-

3.  Resigning Miguel Cairo to a two- year, $2 million contract:  Cairo had one of his best years in the Majors last year at the ripe age of 36.  He played every infield position and posted a .290/ .353/ .410 stat line in 200 at bats while doing so.  He was finally valuable again- the first time since 2004 when he was with the Yankees.  So what are the odds that he is valuable again for a second time since 2004 in his age- 37 year?  Virtually none.  Odds are that he will regress back to his normally awful .250/ .300/ .340 averages that he posted between 2005 and 2010.  And remember, he is signed for two years.  Grade: F

4.  Resigning Ramon Hernandez to one- year $3 million contract:  thank goodness it was only a one- year contract.  Hernandez's clock is about to strike midnight because catchers' clocks run a lot faster than everyone else's and he is already 34.  In fact, his clock may explode this year.  Due to ineffectiveness or injury, top prospect Devin Mesoraco may be in Cincinnati to replace Hernandez by July.  Grade:  C

5.  Edgar Renteria signs a one- year, $2.1 million contract:  Before his hot three weeks at the tail end of the 2010 playoffs, Renteria was talking about retirement.  He had been benched in San Francisco for his mediocre .276/ .332/ .374 offensive output as well as his lack of range at shortstop.  Then, the Giants' Kung Fu Panda proceeded to eat his way out of starting slots at third AND first base, and Renteria got another shot in late September.  Being a playoff or World Series MVP only means that the player was hot for a few games- what did he do the rest of the season?  In Renteria's case, it was hurt his team.  This is an awful signing.  Renteria's numbers the previous two years mirror 2010 (2009:  .250/ .307/ .328; 2008: .270/ .317/ .382) so he is clearly on a steady downhill spiral.  Is there any positive to this signing?  There are two; the contract is for only one year and this is not nearly as bad a signing as Orlando Cabrera was last year because Renteria is not slated to bat 500 times.  Grade:  F

6.  Fred Lewis signs a one- year, $900,000 contract:  Lewis is a good backup outfielder.  He can play all three outfield positions and he will be an average hitter at best... if he was a catcher.  Playing an outfield spot and hitting .262/ .332/ .414 in 2010 in what is considered a career year for Lewis is not impressive.  On a better note, Lewis does have a career line of .280/ .354/ .442 against right handed pitchers so a platoon in left field with Johnny Gomes is not a bad move, but its still league average production at best.  Grade D+

LOST FREE AGENTS
1.  The only free agent to depart the Reds that will have a negative impact on the Reds is left handed reliever Arthur Rhodes who signed a $3.9 million deal with Texas.  He put up some pretty amazing numbers last year (2.29 E.R.A. with a 1.02 WHIP in 55 innings) and there is nobody ready to replace him.  Grade:  D-

2.  Orlando Cabrera is still a free agent and will probably not get a major league deal this season because he was just plain awful is every aspect of the game last year.  Dusty Baker still wheeled him out there at every opportunity possible and the fact that nobody else wants him should tell you something about Baker.  Grade:  A; addition by subtraction.

3,  Laynce Nix is still a free agent also because he refused a minor league assignment by the Reds in November.  This was a mistake by Nix because 1.  the Reds were low in depth in the outfield and he still could have made the major league team and 2. he really is not that good.  Grade B; nothing lost here

LOW IMPACE ITEMS
1.  The Reds drafted nobody in the Rule 5 Draft.  The Rule 5 Draft rarely has players of any significance.  There is nothing to worry about here.  Grade:  INC

2.  The Reds changed their High-A affiliate to Bakersfield of the California League.  This may not be much to many Reds fans, but Bakersfield is largely considered the WORST facility in ALL of the minor leagues.  It is so bad that there is a movement to condemn the field.  The Reds need to explain this move and quicly fix this move.  Grade:  F

OVERALL: There was vitually nothing done to improve the club this offseason.  The additions of Renteria, Hermida and Lewis do not offset the moves of NL Central rivals Milwaukee (adding Shawn Marcum and Zach Greinke), St. Louis (adding Lance Berkman and resigning Jake Westbrook) and Chicago (trading for Matt Garza).  The rest of the division has caught up to the Reds, but all three teams are not nearly as deep in the pitching deparment as the Reds.  With a couple of solid moves, the Reds could have iced the pennent race in December, but instead, the Reds are banking that the great years from Joey Votto, Brandon Phillips, Bronson Arroyo and others were not career years, but just standard years.  This sounds like 1991 all over again.  Overall grade: D

MLB cincinnati reds, 2010 mlb offseason, offseason grades, joey votto, jay bruce

With the Winter Meetings starting next Monday, December 6th, and Redsfest coming up this weekend, now is a perfect time to present Cincinnati Reds management with a realistic blueprint for the home team in 2011.  The key word in that sentence is realistic.  There are no pipe dreams in this plan like free agents Carl Crawford, Cliff Lee or Derek Jeter- big market teams can afford to overpay for these guys. There are no ridiculous trades for Jose Reyes, Justin Upton, or Brain Wilson- their teams are asking too much and the Reds’ philosophy is to build from within and not trade from within.  But at the same time, some trades and some signings should happen to push the Reds from a good team to an elite team. 

TOP PRIORITIES
1.  A real ace pitcher - the 2010 post- season showed why a hammer on the staff is needed in the playoffs. The Reds have a bunch of #2, #3, and #4 starting pitchers who do not match up well in the playoffs.  The only pitcher on the current roster that could be an ace is Aroldis Chapman, but he may not be ready yet to assume that role. 

2.  A starting leftfielder who can get on base - Jonny Gomes was exposed in the second half of the season to be nothing but a fourth or fifth outfielder.  A new left fielder needs to get on base a ton (this eliminates Scott Podsednik whose career numbers are an unimpressive .279 batting average/ a middling .340 on- base percentage/ and a miserable .381 slugging percentage).  Joey Votto came to the plate too many times last season with the bases empty.  By comparison, Albert Pujols in 2010 came to bat 30 more times with runners on base than Votto did. In addition, the Reds leadoff hitters hit a combined .244 last year with a staggering .306 on- base percentage.  The main two culprits that batted ahead Votto were Brandon Phillips, who had a .332 OBP and Orlando Cabrera, who had a pathetic .303 OBP.  This has to improve.

3.  A reliable closer - Reds fans are cringing at the possibility of another season of Francisco Cordero’s high wire act.

4.  Bench help - Laynce Nix is not coming back and Miguel Cairo is a free agent.  There is some help in the Minors, but there are one or two perfect fits for the Reds in the trade market.

BUDGET
Last year’s Opening Day budget was $76,151,500 and according to Reds administration, the budget should be slightly higher this year. 

TRADES/FREE AGENT SIGNINGS
1.  The first move is a non-move.  According to our priorities, the Reds need an ace pitcher.  The Reds will get one through a trade for Yonder Alonso… at the July Trade Deadline.  There are five reasons for this: A.) The cost of an ace pitcher is awfully high at the beginning of the season compared to the midpoint of a season, particularly, for a end- of- the- year free agent.  Along these same lines we find the laws of supply and demand… B.)  There are almost no ace pitchers on the market presently so the ones that are on the market can get a king’s ransom in return.  C.)  The Reds are built for the long haul of the 162 game season and not the short- series playoffs.  They do not need the ace until the end of the year.  D.)  Zach Greinke, the only notable ace on the market did not have a very impressive season last year (4.17 E.R.A. and 1.25 WHIP).  Let him prove his worth a little more.  Remember the Reds fascination with Erik Bedard of the Orioles after his breakthrough season a few years ago?  Thank goodness the Mariners jumped on him before the Reds.  E.)  Adrolis Chapman may develop into an ace so a trade for Greinke may be premature.  Give Chapman until the All- Star break to develop and then make an evaluation for a trade.

2.  Trade Edinson Volquez and minor league center fielder Dave Sappelt (.342/ .395/ .507 over three stops in High- A, Double- A and Triple- A) to the Florida Marlins for leftfielder Logan Morrison.  The Marlins are in the midst of an impressive makeover of the lineup, but need one more starting pitching to be a serious contender.  They have an extra corner outfielder (Chris Coghlan and Mike Stanton are the other two), they have no centerfielder, and they have some money to spend after recently dealing Dan Uggla.  They take on Volquez’s $2 million and Sappelt’s league minimum salary while dealing away a $412,000 salary to the Reds.  Why trade Volquez and not one of the other starting pitchers?  Its simple- his control is as unpredictable as Lady Gaga’s wardrobe (his walks per nine innings rate over the last three years:  5.03, 5.80, 4.27; that is way too many extra base runners).  Lastly, if the Marlins cannot be convinced to turn over Morrison, throw in Juan Francisco to possibly man third base for them.

3.  Trade pitcher Sam LeCure and Jonny Gomes to the Washington Nationals for backup outfielder Mike Morse (.289/ .352/ .519 in 266 at bats).  The Nationals are desperate for starting pitching and would look at Gomes as a possible one- year starter in left.  The Reds get back a young, cheap, underrated Morse who somehow could not win a regular job in an outfield consisting of Roger Bernadina, Josh Willingham, and Nyjer Morgan. 

4.  Re- sign Arthur Rhodes to a one- year, $2.5 million deal.  This would be a $500,000 raise from last year which makes up for the one- year pact instead of a multi- year deal.  He is getting too long in the tooth to risk anything more than a year.

5.  Sign a few free agent risks to minor league contracts (with invites to Spring Training) including Eric Chavez, Chad Tracy, and Jason Giambi.  One may win the 3B/ 1B/ left handed PH job.  This is a pretty weak group, which includes Francisco if he is still here.  As a result, let’s not take any chances and let’s trade for the Royals’ switch hitting third baseman Wilson Betemit, who stands in the way of their real third baseman, Alex Gordon.  The Royals will ask for highly regarded catching prospect Devin Mesoraco, but that is ridiculous.  A fair trade includes LH starter Daryl Thompson (52K in 51 innings and a 0.96 WHIP in Double- A) and RH reliever Carlos Fisher (38K in 36.66 innings and a 0.85 WHIP in Triple-A).  Both have lots of potential and fit in well with the Royals’ plan to win in 2012.  If another arm is needed to sweeten the deal, throw in Daniel Ray Herrera.

25-MAN OPENING DAY ROSTER
Catchers (2)
Ramon Hernandez:  $3.0 million
Ryan Hannigan:  $445,000

Comments:  Both 2010 catchers return to split the duties for one more year before Mesoraco takes Hernandez’s spot.  He may take it this year because Hernandez turns 35 this season and that is the age for catchers when the clock strikes midnight.

Total cost:  $3.445 million

Infield (6)
Joey Votto:  $8 million (arbitration estimate- his long term deal is at least a year away). 
Brandon Phillips:  $11 million
Scott Rolen:   $6.5 million. 
Paul Janish:  $445,000
Zach Cozart:  $400,000
Betemit:  $2.5 million (arbitration estimate)

Comments:   Janish and Cozart (.255/ .310/ .416 with 17 HRs in Triple- A) will vie for the starting shortstop job with either one being an improvement defensively and offensively over Orlando Cabrera (.263/.303/ and a miserable .354) who, on a side note, may not get another major league contract.  The loser of the battle is the backup at middle infield or is sent down to Louisville if another pitcher is needed.  Betemit (.297/ .378/ .511 in 276 at bats) should net 350 at bats at the four corner positions.  His ability to switch hit on a team of mostly right handed hitters and play third base on a regular basis makes him a perfect fit for this team. 

Total cost:  $28.845 million

Outfield (5)
Jay Bruce:  $2.85 million (arbitration estimate, but he should be signed to a long term deal right away.  Make an investment like the Rockies just did with Troy Tulowitzki and sign him for ten years)
Drew Stubbs:  $412,000
Logan Morrison  $412,000
Chris Heisey:  $412,000
Mike Morse:  $412,000

Comments:  Bruce will be the Reds’ best all- around player by this time next year.  He is smart, well- spoken and could be the face of the franchise.  Stubbs may never bat for a high average, but his speed, power and defense make him a Mike Cameron clone.  Morrison and his .390 on- base percentage should lead off for the Reds.  It does not matter that he did not steal one base last year (though he stole nine in both 2008 and 2009) - he will be constantly on base for Phillips, Votto, Rolen and Bruce, and therefore, the Reds may score more runs as a team than last year’s league leading total of 791.  Not convinced?  Well, as we all know, Pete Rose led off for the Big Red Machine.  In 1975, he had a grand total of… zero stolen bases for the Reds.  Look in up.  You do not need to be a speedster to lead off.  You just need to get on base.  Rose had a .406 on- base percentage and scored 112 runs, something that Morrison could come close to.

Total Cost:  $4.498 million

Starting Rotation (5)
Johnny Cueto:  $3.25 (arbitration estimate)
Bronson Arroyo:  $13 million
Travis Wood:  $412,000
Homer Bailey:  $445,000
Mike Leake:  $412,000
Comments:  Sure, you would like to see Chapman in this rotation and hopefully, that happens as early as Spring Training and the cold hand gets the long role in the bullpen.  This group can carry the Reds over the long haul.  The Cardinals do rival the Reds here (and only here), but they are thin after the top four guys and have no help if someone gets hurt.

Total Cost:  $17.519 million

Bullpen (7)
Chapman:  $1.0 million
Cordero: $12.125 million with a $1 million buyout after the season that we will already add on here
Nick Masset: $1.545 million
Bill Bray:  $.875 million (arbitration estimate)
Logan Ondrusek:  $412,000
Arthur Rhodes:  $2.5 million
Jordan Smith:  $412,000

Comments:  Not many changes here.  Matt Maloney could make the team out of Spring Training instead of Cozart if he has a strong Spring and the Reds need a long relief man.  Chapman should be the closer, but if he is in the rotation, Masset should battle Cordero for the ninth inning spotlight.  Just because Cordero makes so much money, it does not mean he has to be the closer.  In case of a bullpen malfunction, the rest of the cavalry besides Maloney includes newly signed Dontrelle Willis, Jared Burton, 2010 Futures Game selection Philippe Valiquette, and closer of the future Donnie Joseph (65 IP, 103 K, 25 BB, 2.08 E.R.A., and a .182 opponents’ average across three minor leagues in 2010).  This a deep group, so losing LeCure, Fisher, Herrera and Thompson does not hurt.

Total Cost:  $19.869 million

Team Total Cost:  Yasmani Grandal ($.4 million) and Yonder Alonso ($.5 million) both have Major League contracts so with those two included, the 2011 Opening Day payroll would be a paltry $75.076 million.  That’s right- less than last year’s budget.  This means that someone (i.e. Votto, Bruce, Cueto, Morrison, Stubbs, or Betemit in that order) could be signed to a long range contract and we would still be around last year’s payroll!

******

This plan is not a fantasy - it could happen.  Very little of the Reds farm system is impacted; Todd Frazier, Alonso, Mesoraco, and Chris Valaika are still just a phone call away from helping out.  This plan will improve the Reds most importantly at the top of the lineup, but also it will strengthen their bench, get Gomes out of left field where he was an adventure, and will help at shortstop (anything will be an improvement over an incredibly overrated Cabrera).  There are no sinkholes like Willy Taveras, Corey Patterson or Cabrera for Dusty Baker to play with and ruin the lineup.  There is speed, power, on- base skill, and a fantastic defense led by Phillips, Bruce, Stubbs, and Janish.  The most important piece of this puzzle is Morrison.  With just him, this team becomes great.  With Betemit, Morse and an ace in Chapman or in a trade at the Trade Deadline, it becomes elite.

MLB cincinnati reds, 2010 mlb offseason, edinson volquez, joey votto, jay bruce, aroldis chapman

The eternally pesimistic Reds fan was rewarded Friday night.  You know the fan.  The one who says, "They will find a way to blow it."  Late Friday night, they were sitting with their arms crossed telling you, "I told you so."  And they did.

As disappointed as the Reds fans felt after Game Two of the Playoffs, the Reds themselves had to feel worse.  For the first half of the game, they showed why they won the National League Central and hope was alive.  Wednesday's no- hitter was a distant memory and a split in Philadelphia looked certain.  Then came the bottom of the fifth... cue meltdown and cue five realities from Game Two...

1.  Outside of playing Orlando Cabrera and not batting Jay Bruce higher in the lineup, Reds Manager Dusty Baker managed a great game.  His subsitutions and matchups were perfect.  It was his players who caved- not him- when the game got late.  Could he have helped his players cope with the pressure?  Yes, but that opportunity escaped Baker during the last week of the regular season when he did not play to win and sacrificed the #2 seed and home field advantage.  If the Reds had home field to start the playoffs, they probably would have felt more relaxed and these uncharacteristic physical errors may not have occured.

2.  The ball looks like a pea coming out of the pitcher's hand:  a.  Scott Rolen  b.  Orlando Cabrera  c.  Jimmy Rollins  d.  Ramon Hernandez  e.  Ryan Howard if the pitcher is left handed

3.  The ball looks like a watermelon coming out of the pitcher's hand:  a.  Jayson Werth  b.  Jay Bruce  c.  Chase Utley  d.  Brandon Phillips  e.  Shane Victorino

4.  Cole Hamels is 6-0 lifetime against the Reds with a 1.07 E.R.A.  This season, Hamels pitched only one game versus the Reds.  On Sunday July 11th, the last game before the All- Star Break, he went seven and two- thirds innings, gave up no runs, six hits, three walks, fanned three and won the game 1-0.  He faced a lineup of Phillips, Janish, Votto, Rolen, Gomes, Bruce, Stubbs, Miller and Maloney.  Of note:  Janish had two hits off of him and he will probably play shortstop Sunday.  Bruce went 0-4 with a strikeout, but that was during Bruce's deep slump and he is not the same hitter today.  Rolen had no hits, but he had two walks- we'll take that tomorrow as Rolen looks as lost at the plate as Lawrence Welk at a Kiss concert.

5.  Johnny Cueto has pitched against the Phillies twice this year and had plenty of success.  He is 1-0, and in 15 innings he has given up just ten hits, four walks, two earned runs while striking out three.  The Phillies hit .208 off of him.  The only number that causes concern is the three strikeouts.  Cueto missed very few bats which means that the element of batted ball luck will be a factor Sunday night.  He is pitching at home though and his performance this season has been better at home:  95.2 IP, a 1.22 WHIP, 75 strikeouts and a .258 opponents average against him.  On the road, his line looks like this:  90 IP, 1.33 WHIP, 63 strikeouts, and a .257 opponents average against him.  Also of note, baserunners are only 3-7 in steal attempts against him.

The prediction:  We predicted a win in Game Two for the Redlegs and the same holds true for Game Three.  The Reds have had a short memory all season and that should not change.  If Cueto is on, the Reds win 5-2.  If Cueto struggles with his fastball, the Reds win 5-4 in extras.  Let's cut the suspense Johnny and throw some strikes.

MLB 2010 mlb playoffs, cincinnati reds, philadelphia phillies

Baseball is a cruel game.  One week ago, we were on top of the world after a dramatic, pennant- clinching home run by Jay Bruce.  It was great relief after years of suffering through the likes of Jim Bowden, Willy Taveras, Carl Lindner, Eric Milton, Jimmy Haynes and Tim Hummel.  It was redemption for our well- tested faith.  Tonight, after a gem from the Phillies' Roy Halladay, we are left in pieces.  It feels like it did when we used to find out that Corey Patterson was again, playing centerfield and batting first.  Well, maybe its not that bad.  Here are tonight's top five realities...

1.  At some point, credit needs to be given to the opponent.  Roy Halladay's pitches were moving all over the place, in and out of the strike zone.  He was like a magician on the mound- locating all of his pitches wherever he wanted and he had a home plate umpire that was allowing leeway.  Tonight, he may have thrown a no- hitter against anyone.  Congrats to Halladay on throwing the second no- hitter in post- season history.

2.  On the other hand, Edison Volquez was a mess.  Reds Manager Dusty Baker said yesterday of Volquez that he is, "cool, calm... he's good time Charlie".  He may have been that way yesterday, but he was the opposite today.  In one and two- thirds innings, he received five visits to the mound from his catcher (Ramon Hernandez), his pitching coach, and his shortstop.  Volquez had reason to be nervous- he could not locate today.  Rarely did he ever hit his catcher's target.  A perfect example was the 3-2 pitch to Shane Victorino in the second inning- Hernandez set up outside for a slider and Volquez almost hit Victorino with the pitch, but the hitter fouled it off.  He was so rattled that he let the pitcher rip a single to left in the second and let Victorino easily steal third base in the first inning. 

3.  Dusty Baker deserves some credit this year for leading this team to a championship.  He has managed from his gut and played against the percentages, particularly with his untimely bunting and playing Jonny Gomes against right handed pitchers.  He has played Orlando Cabrera ahead of Paul Janish despite Janish outplaying the starter in almost every aspect of the game.  He has stuck with certain players like Drew Stubbs and Francisco Cordero way beyond what a normal person would do.  Somehow, it was a part of a National League Central title. 

Tonight, all his instincts caught up to him.  Jonny Gomes started against Roy Halladay despite hitting .257/ .301/ .408 (batting average/ on base percentage/ slugging percentage) against right handers while Laynce Nix, who is presumeably healthy since he has played a few times this past week, sat the bench depite batting .289/ .346/ .408 versus righties and playing a vastly better outfield.  Gomes struck out twice and looked lost doing so.  Cabrera started at shortstop and somehow batted second despite batting a Patterson- like .240/ .275/ .326 this season against right handers.  Meanwhile, Janish sat the bench despite batting .237/ .311/ .356 against right handers- not a lot better, but Janish's defense is amongst the best in the league and vastly better than Cabrera's.  He probably would have made that play that Cabrera could not handle in the second inning with two outs.  Lastly, Baker went with Volquez as his starter against the Phils' lefty dominant lineup because he had recently thrown well, leaving out of the rotation his lone left handed pitcher and his pitcher with great recent success against the Phils... Travis Wood.  After his relief performance tonight, Wood has now thrown over 12 innings against the Phillies and given up two hits and one intentional walk.  It was a bad selection any way you look at it.  Maybe Baker will learn from this and start Wood in Game Four on Monday.

4.  Lost in the shuffle was the excellent relief work by Wood, Logan Ondrusek and Bill Bray.  They pitched six and one- thirds innings of one hit, one walk baseball.  The Reds bullpen is strong outside of Cordero and will be an asset in this series.  On a related note, Pitching Coach Bryan Price deserves praise for the development of this group- sign him to a long- term contract before he moves on to a larger market or moves up the ladder.

5.  All hope is not lost.  At the end of the day, the Reds are only down 1-0 in the best of five series  It only seems worse because they were no- hit.  If they win on Friday, the series is tied and I think almost every Reds fan would take a split in Philadelphia.  The Reds have been resiliant all year long and times have looked bleaker than this.  Good news is that the Reds have handled Roy Oswalt this season.  He officially passed the title of "Ultimate Reds Killer" to Shane Victorino as Oswalt went 0-2 with a 6.75 E.R.A. against the Reds.  The bottom line is that Friday's game a must-win and I like our chances... as long as Nix and Janish play.

MLB 2010 mlb playoffs, roy halladay, cincinnati reds, philadelphia phillies, edinson volquez

The Queen City is excited, and rightfully so, about a relevant September and an extended October for their Boys of Summer.  The possibility is real for those Reds fans age 15 and under to witness the first Reds playoff series since they have been alive (excluding the one game play- in game in 1999).  And if that was not enough, the future beyond 2010 looks bright for the Cincinnati Reds as their farm system is deep and ready to graduate talent.

            So what are the key issues coming down the stretch and heading into the future?  Well, here are the ten important questions that need to be addressed and one person’s answers.  The questions are in order with the most important question at the end…

1.  Will Orlando Cabrera stop Joey Votto from winning the Triple Crown?  Answer:  It already happened.  Cabrera has batted in front of Votto in almost every game that he has played this year despite an Alex Trevino- like .276 on- base percentage.  Thus, Votto has not had enough teammates on base when he is at the plate and his RBI total suffers (Stubbs has not helped much either at the top of the lineup).  Votto still is only three RBI off the pace (at press time), but Cabrera is coming off of the DL soon and the sabotage will resume.  Let us not skip another part of the equation- Votto’s nagging injuries (neck, back) and his increasingly poor reputation with the umps is not helping either.

2.  What will the Reds do with Aaron Harang?  Answer:  Wait until the rosters expand in September and then add him to the roster as a long reliever.  He deserves no better- he cannot get Triple- A hitters out right now.  He gave up six earned runs, nine hits, in six innings in his most recent rehab start in Louisville.  In terms of the future, his option will be declined and he will be a free agent this winter.  He better be ready to take a massive salary cut.

3.  Will the Reds exercise the option on Bronson Arroyo’s contract and bring him back next year?  Answer:  His option year will cost the Reds $11 million, but if they decline the option, it will cost them $2 million.  He would easily be the most expensive pitcher on the staff next year as Homer Bailey, Mike Leake, Johnny Cueto, Edinson Volquez, Travis Wood, Matt Maloney and Aroldis Chapman may not make $11 million combined.  Notice how many starting pitchers were just named- there is no room at the inn for Arroyo.  He is out.  On a side note, a great trade for next year would involve one of these young pitchers going to the Marlins for their young left fielder, Logan Morrison.  His on- base tools and power would fit in perfectly at the top of the lineup, even though he is a left handed batter.

4.  What will the Reds do with the money saved from the expiring contracts of Arroyo, Harang, Arthur Rhodes and Mike Lincoln (roughly $26 million)?  Answer:  Brandon Phillips’ contract calls for a $4.25 million pay raise.  Cueto, Volquez, Bailey, Bill Bray, and most importantly, Votto are all eligible for arbitration this off- season so that should cost around $12 million combined.  It could be more if one is signed long- term (hopefully, Votto is first in this line).  Rhodes should be re- signed and that may cost $3 million so there is almost $20 million already spent.  There is some savings left over; a free agent left fielder may get that if one is not acquired through trade. 

5.  Is this bullpen still a worry?  Answer:  Outside of Francisco Cabrera (see below), the bullpen has become a positive.  Here is a great sign for the bullpen:  Mike Leake, a top ten rookie in the National League is the long man in the bullpen and his demotion there was mainly due to concern over his innings pitched. Besides that, Logan Ondrusek and Jordan Smith keep their pitches low, a necessity at GABP.  Rhodes has been dominant.  Nick Masset has rebounded well after an awful April.  And Aroldis Chapman is on the way.  No worries here… almost.

Bonus question:  We will take a break at the halfway point, and ask a historical question… do Ken Griffey Jr. and Adam Dunn belong in the Cincinnati Reds Hall of Fame?  The two lightning rods for fans’ ire probably get a quick, emotional, “No way!”  They were the poster boys for losing, uninspiring teams and they were paid generously.  But time and some Reds winning seasons will heal those wounds and fans will eventually look closely at what they accomplished and vote them into the Reds Hall.  Here are their numbers with a comparison to the most recent Reds Hall inductee, Chris Sabo:

Player             AB       Hits     HRs    Runs   RBI     AVG    OBP    SLG    Seasons

Dunn                3727    920      270      678      646      .247     .380     .520     about 7

Griffey              3353    904      210      533      602      .270     .362     .514     about 8.5

Sabo                3012    812      104      443      373      .270     .328     .447     about 6.5

By the way, Dunn is 3^rd all- time in OBP, 2^nd is slugging, 4^th in home runs, 16^th in runs and 17^th in RBI.  Griffey is 4^th in slugging, 7^th in home runs, 29^th in runs, and 23^rd in RBI.  Dunn is a lock.  Griffey is a good bet.

6.  Should Francisco Cabrera remain the team’s closer?  Answer:  Cordero is walking 5.7 batters per nine innings.  He is giving up 8 hits per nine innings.  As a result, his WHIP is 1.52 which means that one and a half runners are reaching on him every inning.  This is poor for any pitcher, much less a closer who is sent in to protect small leads.  Sure, he has 33 saves, but that number defies his statistics and those statistics will catch up with him at some point soon.  In other words, he has been lucky to save many of those games.  Arthur Rhodes should close Reds games with Aroldis Chapman moving into his setup role.

7.  Should the Reds extend Dusty Baker’s contract?  Answer:  Any loyal reader of this column knows what is coming… absolutely not.  Some will say he deserves it because he has the Reds winning.  The truth is, he had a lot of young talent dumped on his lap by past and present General Managers.  Most major league managers dream of bats like Joey Votto, positive leadership from a veteran like Scott Rolen, and a solid seven man starting rotation (including Chapman and Leake).  Baker deserves credit for his master handling of egos, but there are no excuses for low OBP hitters at the top of the lineup, platoon players in the lineup everyday regardless of the opposition’s pitcher (coverage coming soon), and a refusal to bench slumping players (Cordero, Gomes, Stubbs, Cabrera, etc.).  He has played against the odds and won many times this season… eventually that will catch up to him.

8.  Will Dusty Baker use more platoons in the lineup?  Answer:  Lately, we have seen some progress in this area of deficiency for Baker.  Jay Bruce is sitting more and more against left handed pitchers.  Now, Baker needs to move across the outfield and sit Drew Stubbs and Johnny Gomes much more against right handed pitching.  Here are the triple slash numbers (batting average/ on base percentage/ slugging percentage) for Gomes, Stubbs and two possible replacements:

Gomes:  .254/ .299/ .412 with most of that success coming in April and May

Nix:  .281/ .338/ .446

Stubbs:  .240/ .308/  .374

Heisey: .404/ .493/ .702

At the very least, Heisey needs to be playing left field instead of Gomes against right handed pitching.  How does a major league manager let this rather large discrepancy continue?  Baker is a very stubborn individual so Gomes and Stubbs may have to break some legs (or strain an oblique: see Cabrera, Orlando) before common sense finds its way into the Reds lineup.

9.  Will Dusty Baker sit Paul Janish on the bench when Orlando Cabrera returns from the Disabled List?  Answer:  Though it defies all common sense (again), you can bet the house on this.  Here are the numbers that Baker chooses to ignore:

Janish:  .281/ .358/ .421 with no errors and a 5.01 range factor

Cabrera:  .260/ .302/ .339 with 10 errors and a 4.23 range factor

Cabrera versus right handers:  .239/ .276/ ..320

Janish versus right handers:  .256/ .330/ .410

Out of curiosity:

Juan Castro (2003):  .253/ .290/ .388

Anderson Machado (in 56 at bats in 2004):  .268/ .379/ .393

Cabrera is plummeting towards Ray Olmedo status (. 228/ .276/ .293 career line).  There is no other manager in MLB that would play Cabrera regularly right now.  Baker’s negatives- and they are big negatives- are simply being hidden by wins right now.

10  Will the Reds make the playoffs?  Answer:  Let’s take injuries out of the equation.  The Wild Card spot is possible and it appears it will come down to either the Phillies or Braves and the Cardinals or Reds.  The NL West is the strongest division in the National League and the Giants have the schedule disadvantage when it comes to the Wild Card.   The pick here says the Phillies or Braves will take the Wild Card because both have starting pitching depth and both are getting healthy (outside of Chipper Jones and Chase Utley).  So… can the Reds win the NL Central?  The teams are both playing weak schedules down the stretch and the teams are evenly matched in just about every category except coaching.  After 162 games, the teams will not be separated by more than a couple of games.  Though the Big Three- Cordero, Cabrera, and Baker- will blow a few extra games the Reds otherwise would not lose, the Reds already do have a cushion, they have superior depth (particularly with Chapman coming up), and they appear to have karma on their side.  The Reds by one game.

MLB cincinnati reds, joey votto, aaron harang, bronson arroyo, brandon phillips, arthur rhodes

The opportunity for the Cincinnati Reds to win a pennant this year is real.  General Manager Walt Jocketty did a fantastic job over the last 12 months of assembling talent at a reasonable price.  Now, the pressure is on him to make Trade- Deadline adjustments so his team can edge the St. Louis Cardinals and win their first title since 1995.  Here are the three most pressing moves that need to be made to ensure this happens.

1.  Fire Dusty Baker immediately.  This may cause some head scratching, but the Reds are winning despite Baker's stubborn, 1960s- style managing.  Though a master of the media and a great people person in general, Baker has three flaws that have cost the Reds dearly in a number of games:

a.  Just like he did with Corey Patterson in 2008 and Willy Taveras in 2009, Baker is stubbornly starting Orlando Cabrera and batting him at the top of the lineup.  Baker has always been in love with speed at the top of the lineup and not the most important trait at the top of the lineup- the ability to get on base.  Patterson's numbers in 2008 were a remarkably poor .205/ /238/ .344 (batting average/ on- base percentage/ slugging percentage).  Taveras' were a slight improvement, but still an awful .240/ .275/ .285 in 2009.  Somehow, without much attention, Cabrera has matched Taveras at .243/ .283/ .329 including an unsightly .207/ .241/ .291 against right handed pitching.  And he is hitting 1st or 2nd in the lineup!  It is hard to say which is worse- Cabrera's bat or Baker's decision to play him.  Paul Janish has the vastly superior glove at shortstop and the difference is just as great at the plate: .296/ .397/ .463.  But Janish is not the only possible replacement for Cabrera; anyone who is an above average fielding shortstop who can hit .220 is an improvement (Triple- A shortstop Zach Cozart) because Cabrera's range at short is so limited.  Cabrera seems to be a very positive person who helps in the clubhouse so he may have some value on the bench, but certainly not in the starting lineup.

b.  Baker caves in to individual player greed and ego.  He has a need to put individual accomplishments before the team.  He is popular amongst his players because he lets pitchers come back in to pitch after long rain delays in the 5th inning to get a win (Aaron Harang) only to blow up and lose the game.  He lets his rookie pitcher, Mike Leake, who was supposed to be under a strict innings count, stay in the game against the Phillies where the Reds led 7-1 in the ninth to get his first complete game.  Instead, Hall of Fame sluggers Greg Dobbs and Cody Ransom hit home runs sending the game into the 10th where the Reds lost the gmae.  Similarly, he stubbornly continues to send Francisco Cordero out to close games depite the fact that Cordero's performance has been on the decline.  His strikeout rates per nine innnigs are:  9.98 (2008), 7.83 (2009), 7.52 (2010).  His home run rates per nine innings over the last three years are:  0.77, 0.27, 1.11.  Finally, his hits allowed per nine innings over the last three years are:  7.81, 7.83, 9.07.  Baker needs to say "No" to his players more- "no" to Cordero is any tight situation and "no" to players who want to stay in the game to achieve a stat.

c.  Finally, Baker gives up outs, the most preciouse commodity a team has, at an alarming rate.  There is a proper time and place for the bunt- late in a game when the score is close- and Baker does not understand this.  He has called for a bunt after his leadoff man has reached in the first inning, a move that ignores all statistical probabilities (bunting along a runner from first to second actually decreases a team's odds of scoring from .907 to .720) and is a backwards strategy for a game (what if the oppoent scores four runs in the bottom of the first while you played for a single run?).  This includes asking one of his best hitters, Brandon Phillips, to bunt Cabrera to third after a lead- off double.  Phillips was bunting despite the fact that there is no better hitter on the team that can shoot the ball to right field!  Baker asked for the same thing from Cabrera after a Phillips lead- off double in a game in which the Reds had Matt Maloney pitching against Johan Santana- did Baker play for one run because he expected the Mets to be shut out by Maloney?  Why play for one run?  And possibly the worst bunting call of them all- Baker had a pitcher bunt with one out and runners at first and third.  What!?!  We would rather have second and third and two outs than a runners at first and third and one out?  Baker's teams are consistently amongst the top of the league in sacrifice bunt attempts including being number two in 2008 and number one in 2009.  It seems as though Baker is still managing in the 1960s when offense was at a disadvantage due to the height of the mound and bunting was more important.  Times have changed, but changing is one of Baker's weaknesses.

2.  Acquire bullpen help.  The addition of Bill Bray has helped, but the Reds still need a new closer and a right handed set up man.  The ideal target would be Joakim Soria of the Kansas City Royals.  The flamethrower has a reasonable contract ($3 million in 2010, $4 million in 2011, $6 million in 2012, $8 million in 2013, and $8.75 million in 2014 with affordable $750,000 buyouts the last three years), great numbers (11.06 K/9, 2.31 BB/9, 1.03 HR allowed/9, 7.97 HA/9 and a 2.31 E.R.A.) and is on a team that is rebuilding.  A backup plan would be the Marlins' Leo Nunez.  The Marlins seems to be always selling players and since Nunez is making $2 million this year and is eligible for arbitration next year, he is a prime candidate to be moved.  His numbers are 9.08 K/9, 2.21 BB/9, 0.25 HRA/9, 7.12 HA/9 and a 2.95 E.R.A.  Compare those numbers to Cordero's (listed above).  It could be the difference in two or three more wins which could be the difference in the NL Central championship.  Other possible arms to consider:  veterans Clay Hensley of Florida and Brandon Lyon of Houston and Shawn Camp of Toronto.

3.  If Baker is not going to be fired, at least bench Orlando Cabrera.  Just because Cabrera is a veteran and "you know what you are going to get by looking at the back of his baseball card" (the most ignorant saying in the baseball community) does not mean he is productive.  See Ken Griffey Jr. for further proof.

***
For the first time in over ten seasons, the Reds have enough talent and depth to win the NL Central.  They are at a competitive disadvantage in other areas- namely at shortstop, in the bullpen and with their manager.  Those are not hard holes to fill and adjustments are possible and badly needed.  Reds fans are starving for a meaningful September- let's give it to them while there is a chance. 

MLB cincinnati reds, dusty baker, orlando cabrera, francisco cordero, nl central

In the spirit of summer's annual blitz at the box office, the Cincinnati Reds' Minor Leaguers this season have performed like a typical movie sequel.  "Ocean's Thirteen" or "Alien 4: The Resurrection" come to mind; you come in with high hopes after the previous few shows and leave wondering if you wasted your time or not.  There were some great scenes, but overall... ?

The Reds have graduated a lot of their Minor League talent to the Major Leagues over the past three years.  They have passed along more talent than the previous dozen years combined.  Just this year Mike Leake, Jordan Smith, Chris Heisey, and Logan Ondrusek have exited the Minors and they leave nice talent gaps that are hard to replace.  Some players have stepped up and some are fading faster than Molly Ringwald's film career.

The following is a listing of the midseason ranking of the Reds' Minor Leaguers based upon statistics, numerous scouting reports, first hand observation, age, position, and the catchall- research. 

Travis Wood and Matt Maloney are included in the rankings because, as unfair as it seems, the guess here is that both will be sent back down to the Minors shortly with the returns of Aaron Harang and Edinson Volquez.

First, the GetSportsInfo Preseason Rankings for a comparison:

1.  Aroldis Chapman, SP
2.  Yonder Alonso, 1B/ LF
3.  Todd Frazier, 2B/ 3B/ OF
4.  Mike Leake, SP
5.  Travis Wood, SP
6.  Chris Heisy, OF
7.  Yorman Rodriguez, OF
8.  Juan Francisco, 3B
9.  Zach Cozart, SS
10.  Matt Maloney, SP
11.  Bradley Boxberger, SP
12.  Chris Valaika, 2B
13.  Donnie Joseph, RP
14.  Juan Duran, OF
15.  Didi Gregorius, SS
16.  Billy Hamilton, SS
17.  Phillippe Valiquette, SP
18.  Enerio Del Rosario, RP
19.  Ezequiel Infante, SP
20.  Sam LeCure, SP

QUICK COMMENTS:  No Devin Mesoraco.  We missed on that one, but so did everyone else in the universe.  Enerio Del Rosario was promoted to Cincinnati, drank a few cups of coffee, showed some promise and headed back to Louisville for polish.  It is rare to rank a reliever on a Prospects List- they are so easy to come by.  Neftali Soto was left off after he ate his way out of shortstop AND third base and is now left to hit his way to the Majors over at first base.  Daryl Thompson is a long lost name that may resurface as he recovers from arm trouble in Double- A.

And now, the GSI Midseason Rankings and comments:

1.  Chapman:  temporarily being converted to a reliever to help an awful Major League bullpen.  His control issues are real and not improving much.  He seems to think that his stuff (i.e. 100 m.p.h. fastball) will carry him to success.  He still has a lot to learn.

2.  Wood:  His showing in the Majors so far has been impressive, but let's wait until the league sees him a second time around before anointing him Tom Browning.  He could be a solid #3 starting pitcher.

***3.  Yasmani Grandal, C:  The Reds' 2010 number one draft pick debuts here as soon as he commits to a contract.  That is not a great sign for the rest of the list and others.  Grandal will be an average fielding catcher who can hit somewhere between #2 and #6 in the lineup depending on how much he develops.

4.  Alonso:  The biggest trade chip the Reds have because 1.) He plays a position that is blocked by the Reds' best player and 2.) He is hotter than Catherine Zeta- Jones in "Ocean's Twelve" right now.  Over the past week, he has hit .387/.441/.742 (12-for-31), 3 R, 2 2B, 3 HR, 10 RBI, 3 BB, 5 SO, 3 SB.

5.  Mesoraco:  He is hardly slowing down after his promotion from High- A Lynchburg (.335/ .414/ .620 in 158 at bats) to Double- A Carolina (.286/ .339/ .610 in 105 at bats).  He should have been in the Futures Game, but there are still a lot of non- believers out there because the former #1 draft pick has not done anything like this since he has been a pro.

6.  Rodriguez:  The toolsy Venezuelan with the record signing bonus continues to progress.  In just 40 at bats (small sample!!!) for the Billings Mustangs (Short Season Rookie Ball), he is hitting .375/ .366/ .525.  He still needs to work on the typical problem with young players- plate disciple (no walks, eight strikeouts).

7.  Frazier:  He is struggling mightily in Triple-A (.239/ .301/ .434 in 297 at bats).  The good news is that these numbers have come up lately.  Still, he does not look to help the big club until late 2011 at the earliest.

8.  Ryan Lamarre:  The 2010 second round draft pick should never have lasted until the #62 pick overall.  He only did so because of an early season injury at the University of Michigan.  He is a five tool talent who should be in the top five in these rankings in a year.  So far, in 92 at bats at Low- A Dayton, he is hitting .272/ .380/ .359 with 12 steals in 13 attempts.

9.  Boxberger:  2009's supplemental pick is having a decent year at High- A (1.24 WHIP, 3.19 E.R.A. and 70 strikeout and 20 walks in 62 innings).  He gets very little press for some reason.

10.  Maloney:  He probably deserves to spend more time in Cincinnati, but he is squeezed out by money and returning veterans.  He could carve out an up and down career as a 4th or 5th (probably) starter.

11.  Joseph:  He is the only reliever in the present rankings so he must be good.  Last year's third- round pick has 76 strikeouts while walking 13 in 43.33 innings this year in High and Low- A ball.  He is a future closer.

12.  Cozart:  Scouts say he does not have the arm of Paul Janish, but he has better range and can hit better than him.  In particular, he takes more walks and hits for more power.  Both Cozart and Janish are better options than Orlando Cabrera right now.

13.  Gregorius:  Scouts love his glove and arm.  It is just a matter of his bat.  So far, the Dutch import has hit .271/ .325/ .385 in 340 at bats at Dayton.  He has some speed:  10 steals in 14 attempts.  There is no shortage of fantastic glove men at shortstop in this organization.

14.  Hamilton:  The Mississippi native is possibly the best athlete in the system.  He is only 19 years old and is as raw as you can imagine.

15.  Kyle Lotzkar:  After serious arm surgery that also included elbow ligament surgery (two for the price of one), Lotzkar is slowly coming back.  He just recent started to throw again for the Arizona Rookie team.  He is a huge question mark and many think the odds are against him.

16.  Francisco:  The raw power attracts scouts.  They rave about the possibilities of 30 homer seasons.  He reminds us of Wily Mo Pena because though he may have power, he has no plate disciple, no speed, and no ability to play defense.  Pawn him off to another organization before they clue in.

17.  Duran:  Continues to show absolutely nothing (.192/ .289/ .329) at the plate, but he is only 18 and still filling out his massive frame.  Scouts say all of the physical tools are there and that he just needs to play a ton.  If Hamilton is a rare steak, Duran is still mooing on the grill.

18.  Dave Sappelt:  We are doing a lot of reaching since reaching #15 on this list.  Sappelt is not a guy who many have heard of- maybe its because he is listed as 5'9" in the media book and may be only 5'7" in real life.  But he continues to put up solid numbers (combined High- A and Double- A numbers of .325/ .372/ .467 in 302 at bats) while showing good physical tools in center field.  He needs to work on his base running as he is only 20 for 33 in stolen base attempts.

19.  Valiquette:  The Canadian can light up the radar gun so he made the Futures Game and is a candidate for the back of the rotation or as a lefty set- up man.

20.  Valaika:  After a miserable 2009 season (.235/ .271/ .344), he has rebounded nicely with the average (.290), but nothing else ( .322 OBP and  .379 SLG).  This makes him a fringe prospect at best.  The 2010 third- round pick, Devin Lohman, will be passing him and many others between #15 and #19 very shortly.

21.  Devin Lohman, SS
22.  Miguel Rojas, SS
23.  Daryl Thompson, SP
24.  Ezequiel Infante, SP
25.  Sam LeCure, SP

Minor Leagues, MLB cincinnati reds, minor league report, reds minor league rankings, louisville bats

So the rumor of a predraft deal between the Kansas City Royals and Miami junior catcher Yasmani Grandal was not true.  Instead, the Royals drafted shortstop Christian Colon from Cal St. Fullerton.  Plus, the Baltimore Orioles drafted Manny Machado the pick before the Royals and so any dreams of a much-needed shortstop for the Cincinnati Reds went down the drain early.  Surprisingly, it was Grandal who slid down to the Reds at #12 and the Reds threw caution to the wind and selected him.  With this surprise comes plenty of positives and negatives.  Here they are, in order...

NEGATIVES
1.  His agent is the same agent as 2008 first-round pick Yonder Alonso's and those negotiations were gloomy at best.  His price tag is rumored to be ridiculous and that is why he slipped to #12.  If he signs with the Reds, it will be at the deadline.

2.  Grandal has had only one good year at the college level.  He hit .234 as a freshman at Miami, .299 last year and hit just .182 for Team USA last summer.  He is having a monster season this season- he is hitting .412 with an on- base percentage well over .500.  He has changed his approach to hitting by abandoning an all- pull attitude and now he sprays the ball to all fields.  Still, one year of success should make Reds fans a little uneasy.

3.  Though Reds scouting director Chris Buckley says that Grandal is a plus thrower, Baseball America quotes some scouts who say that his throwing arm is his biggest concern as they have clocked him with 2.1 pop times (that is a below average release time for a MLB catcher throwing to second base).

4.  The Reds drafted a catcher in the first round just three years ago in Devin Mesoraco.  He has been awful until this season at Single- A Lynchburg (where he was repeating the league).  He was hitting .335/ .414/ .620 before he was just recently promoted to Double- A ball.  He is arguably having the best season of any Reds minor leaguer and the Reds drafted another catcher?  This smells like the Yonder Alonso- Joey Votto quagmire the Reds have sunk into.

POSITIVES
1.  Grandal is having a massive season and is among the NCAA leaders in many offensive catagories.  He switch hits and plays a position of scarcity in the Majors.  That is an encouraging combination.

2.  Grandal was not expected to be around when the Reds picked at #12.  This could be labled as a value pick and if Mel Kiper were covering this Draft, he would be raving over it.  Pitcher Chris Sale (#13) and outfielder Josh Sale (#17 and no relation) were available and would have been value picks too so Grandal was not a no- brainer.  Overall, the Draft was not deep in talent and anywhere that value was found must be a positive.

3.  Reds Owner Bob Castellini has shown that he can get even the toughest deals done (Adrolis Chapman, Yonder Alonso) so we should have faith that he can get Grandal in the fold.

******
Clearly, the negatives outweigh the positives initially, but if the kid is signed, that reverses direction... barely.  The kid has a lot to prove and has some direct competition in Mesoraco.  Odds are that one of the two catchers will be traded or just not make the Majors.  On that note, remember, there is nothing wrong with trading your prospects so that could be the final positive.

MLB 2010 mlb amateur draft, cincinnati reds, yasmani grandal

Two years ago, Gordon Beckham was the easy pick for the Cincinnati Reds in the first round of the MLB Draft.  Beckham, being a polished college player, would not take long to get to the Majors (he did not) and he was a shortstop, a position that has been a drain on the Reds production for most of this past decade.  The Reds passed on Beckham to take Yonder Alonso, a flawed, but solid college firstbase prospect.  Fast forwarding to the present, the Reds still do not have an answer for shortstop position (and even this year's answer is really no longer a middle infielder). 

That can be addressed tonight at the Draft, which begins at 7:00 EST.  There are some very good shortstop prospects who could be available at the #12 pick, the slot where the Reds find themselves.  If neither of the top shortstops are available at #12, the Reds should take the best player available.  Here is one wish list for the Reds and it only contains players who will probably be picked from #8 through #20...

1.  Manny Machado, Brito Private HS, Hialeah, FL, SS:  A week ago, he was not on the Reds' radar because he probably was going in the top five picks.  But if Kansas City, picking at #4, does indeed have a pre-draft deal with Miami catcher Yasmani Grandal sewn up, Machado may fall to the Reds.  The teams after the Royals are all eyeing pitchers so the Reds may get a gift.  If MLB allowed teams to trade draft picks, this would be a perfect opportunity for the Reds to trade up.  Machado will stay at short and has no weaknesses to speak of except foot speed (he is average). 

2.  Christian Colon, Jr, Cal State Fullerton, SS:  Colon is a better hitter than fielder.  In fact, his arm and range may force him to switch back to his 2009 position, second base.  The good news is that this middle infielder is an on- base machine with power.  He does not have a ridiculous price tag so this is a realistic pick.

3.  Stetson Allie, St. Edward HS, Lakewood, OH, RHP:  It is always risky to pick a high school pitcher.  Each has three less years experience under the belt than any college pitcher and that means three more years to get hurt or flame out.  Rarely do high schoolers help out the big league club within four years.  So this long term project better be really good and he is.  Allie just pitched his high school team to the state championship with high-90s fastballs and sharp breaking stuff.  He is a late riser on draft boards.

4.  Michael Choice, Sr., Texas- Arlington, OF:  This power hitting outfielder should be able to play in the Majors shortly.  His approach at the plate is advanced- he uses the whole field and is extremely patient (he led NCAA Division I in walks for most of the season).  He could possibly stay in centerfield which increases his value even more.

5.  Chris Sale, Jr., Florida Gulf Coast, LHP:  A safer pitcher pick than Allie would be Sale, who does not have the upside of Allie, but has the polish and multiple high- grade pitches to be in the Majors within two or three years.  He has excellent command that leads to plenty of strikeouts (his numbers are ridiculous, but his competition was weak).  His knockout pitch is his changeup.  The future middle- of- the- rotation finishes a distant fifth on this list due to injury concerns-  he throws across his body.

MLB 2010 mlb amateur draft, cincinnati reds, manny machado, chrisitan colon, stetson allie

It was like the AT&T commercial where actor Luke Wilson is in a restaurant and is having a random person text everyone in the whole country who has AT&T.  The random guy asks everyone to text him back to see just how many people have AT&T out there.  His phone starts to buzz so much it falls off of the table.  At 2:15 p.m. today, that happened to me.  My cell phone's text inbox had a life of its own and obviously something big was going on.  And much to my delight, it was the news that the Cincinnati Reds had traded their blunder from last year, Willy Taveras.

Cincinnati Reds GM Walt Jocketty knew that he could not trust manager Dusty Baker to keep Taveras on the bench this season, so he somehow traded him for not just a living, breathing human being, but a useful, living, breathing infielder.  Jocketty dumps Taveras, his $4 million contract and  infielder Adam Rosales on to the Oakland Athletics for veteran infielder Aaron Miles and a player to be named later.  The later player could be a lamppost- it does not matter.  This is grand larceny.  Taveras was one of the worst players in the Major Leagues last year both offensively (.240/ .275/ .285) and defensively and only Baker's insistence to play him was more frustrating than watching him.  He was so bad that Oakland immediately designated Taveras for assignment the moment the trade became official.

The good news does not end there.  Though the Cubs gave the A's $1 million to pay for part of Miles's 2010 salary when they traded him in December, that $1 million stays with the A's in this trade.  The Reds are on the hook for all of Miles' $2.7 contract.  Still, adding in Rosales' minimum contract leaving the books, the Reds end up saving about $1,700,000 on the deal.  They got rid of Taveras and saved money?  What is A's GM Billy Beane thinking?  Nobody could want Taveras and claim his contract or trade for it- the A's will be saddled with it.

This is now the best move of the offseason FOR THE 2010 SEASON that the Reds have made.  The other notable moves are not as important for this season; Adrolis Chapman's days of contributing to the big league will probably begin in 2011 (too many control issues right now- his walk rates in the lowly Cuban leagues were in the four to five per nine innings- yikes! ).  Recently signed shortstop Orlando Cabrera ($2 million for 2010 with a club buyout of $1 million for next year) is a slight upgrade at shortstop.  Though he can hit better than incumbent shortstop Paul Janish, he is nowhere near the fielder that Janish is. 

In fact, the reason that Cabrera signed with the Reds is that they were the only ones who offered him a shortstop job.  Not a good sign.  As long as he hits .285/ .335/ .425, he can overcome the lost defense.  These are not easy demands for the 35-year old Cabrera.  No, getting rid of the last of Dusty Baker's recruits is the biggest move.  By the way, have you noticed how quiet Baker has been this offseason and how few of Baker's "guys" (anyone with awful on- base percentage) were signed.

The trade boosts the Reds' win total from 80 to 84 in my calculations.  If they can stay relatively healthy, get anything out of Chapman, or get big years out of Homer Bailer, Jay Bruce and Johnny Cueto, it could go to 87.  How did I get that calculation?  Simple - addition by substraction.

MLB cincinnati reds, willy taveras, adam rosales, aaron miles, orlando cabrera, adrolis chapman