Bizarre Belmont Fitting End

12. June 2011  - Published by Dan Clasgens

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For the first time ever the Belmont Stakes featured the top seven Kentucky Derby finishers and eight total horses that were on the card in the Run for the Roses, but in the end it was a horse that got shut out of the Derby that took home the final jewel of the Triple Crown.

Ruler on Ice, a 24-1 shot, overcame pre-race jitters, to win the 143rd Belmont Stakes in sloppy conditions. Jose Valdivia Jr., completed 1 1/2 miles in 2:30.88, finishing three quarters of length ahead of Stay Thirsty and another 1 ½ lengths over Brilliant Speed, who finished third.

Kentucky Derby Winner Animal Kingdom was the favorite entering the race at 5/2, but he clipped heels and stumbled badly out of the gate, causing jockey John Velazquez to temporarily lose his irons. Though he made a gallant effort on the far turn to get back in the race, Animal Kingdom understandably lost his punch late and finished sixth.

Shackleford followed up his Preakness win by finishing fifth on Saturday.

ORDER OF FINISH
1. Ruler On Ice
2. Stay Thirsty
3. Brilliant Speed
4. Nehro
5. Shackleford
6. Animal Kingdom
7. Mucho Macho Man
8. Santiva
9. Monzon
10. Master of Hounds
11. Prime Cut
12. Isn’t He Perfect

PAYOUTS
#3 Ruler on Ice 51.50 26.00 13.60
#2 Stay Thirsty 19.40 10.80
#5 Brilliant Speed 7.90

$1 Exacta $464.00
$2 Daily Double $994.00
.10 cent Super $3702.00
$1 Trifecta 3-2-5 $4134.00

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143rd Belmont Stakes Preview

9. June 2011  - Published by Dan Clasgens

For the first time since 2005 the Belmont Stakes will feature a rubber match between the Kentucky Derby and Preakness Stakes winners as Animal Kingdom and Shackleford meet again in the 143rd running of the Triple Crown’s oldest race.

Animal Kingdom, who will once again be ridden by John Velazquez, will break from the No. 9 post and opened up a 2-1 favorite. Shackleford didn’t get as a favorable of a draw, landing on the far outside as he will attempt to become the first horse ever to win the Belmont Stakes from the 12th post position.

While Animal Kingdom remains a very appealing option, it remains to be seen how Shackleford will compete from that spot and at the grueling 1 ½ mile distance that lies ahead in Saturday’s race. I didn't give him enough credit in the Preakness and it cost me. However, I am laying off Shackleford again.

A record seven Kentucky Derby horses are part of the 12-horse field for the final jewel of the Triple Crown.

Here are some additional horses that I expect to be contenders:

NEHRO – He was my pick on Derby Day and I am sticking with him here. Five weeks off should prove to do the horse well. Nehro has finished second in three straight races and the added distance that this race offers could be just what puts him in the winner’s circle.

MASTER OF HOUNDS – Like Nehro, Master of Hounds is very fresh and ready to fire. His effort in the Derby flew under the radar by many, but not me. The horse can win this race and must be considered in all exotics.

SANTIVA – Offers similar upside that Master of Hounds brings to the table, but comes with an even bigger price. A very dangerous runner.

BRILLIANT SPEED – The seventh-place finisher in the Derby is back and ready to make noise on Saturday and he’s a Belmont-based horse.

STAY THIRSTY - Another hometown horse loves the track with most of its racing success coming here. He’ll be one of the longest shots in the race, but with a big effort could play spoiler.

It's been a rough Triple Crown season so far for me at the betting windows, but I good exotic ticket cashed here can change all of that quickly.

BETS
(total wagered  = $66)

$10 WP (6) Nehro

$2 EXACTA WHEEL
Bet #1: (6) Nehro with (1) Master of Hounds/(2) Stay Thirsty /(4) Santiva/ (5) Brilliant Speed /(9) Animal Kingdom
Bet #2: (1) Master of Hounds/(2) Stay Thirsty /(4) Santiva/ (5) Brilliant Speed / (9) Animal Kingdom with (6) Nehro

$1 TRI WHEEL
(6) Nehro / (9) Animal Kingdom
with (1) Master of Hounds / (6) Nehro / (9) Animal Kingdom
with (1) Master of Hounds / (2) Stay Thirsty / (4) Santiva / (5) Brilliant Speed / (6) Nehro / (9) Animal Kingdom

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143 Belmont Stakes: Post Positions

8. June 2011  - Published by Dan Clasgens

Winning NFL picks, odds and power rankings all from our friends at Doc's Sports Service.

The post position draw for the 143rd Belmont Stakes:

2011 Belmont Stakes
Post Horse ML Odds Owner, Trainer, and Jockey Kentucky Derby Finish (Beyer) Preakness Finish (Beyer)
11
Master of Hounds
10-1 Mrs. John Magnier
A. O'Brien/G. Gomez
5th (95)  
22
Stay Thirsty
20-1 Repole Stable
T. Pletcher/J. Castellano
12th (86)  
33
Ruler On Ice
 20-1 George & Lori Hall
K. Breen/J. Valdivia Jr.


44
Santiva
15-1 Tom Walters
E. Kenneally/S. Bridgmohan
6th (95)  
55
Brilliant Speed
15-1 Live Oak Plantation
T. Albertrani/J. Rosario
7th (95)  
66
Nehro
4-1 Zayat Stables
S. Asmussen/C. Nakatani
2nd (99)  
77
Monzon
30-1 Sagamore Farm
I. Correas/J. Lezcano
   
88
Prime Cut
15-1 Donald Adam
N. Howard/E. Prado
   
99
Animal Kingdom
2-1 Team Valor International
H. G. Motion/J. Velazquez
1st (103) 2nd (103)
1010
Mucho Macho Man
10-1 Reeves T'bred Racing, et al
K. Ritvo/R. Dominguez
3rd (99) 6th (92)
1111
Isn't He Perfect
30-1 Kharag Stables
D. Shivmangal/R. Maragh
  9th (87)
1212
Shackleford
9-2 M. Lauffer & W. Cubbedge
D. Romans/J. Castanon
4th (97) 1st (104)

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Flashback: 1973 Belmont Stakes

8. June 2011  - Published by Dan Clasgens

Secretariat's 31-length victory in the Belmont Stakes is one of the most impressive efforts in sports history...

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Triple Crown: Horse Racing vs. Baseball

4. June 2011  - Published by Dan Clasgens

When Shackleford beat Animal Kingdom two weeks ago in the Preakness it ensured that for the 33rd straight year we won't have a horse win the Triple Crown, a feat that requires that a horse win three races in seven weeks.  Horse racing is not the only sport with a Triple Crown award as baseball also has its versions.

The Baseball Almanac states that the Triple Crown is "awarded" (received or honored with as no physical award exists) to the hitter who leads his own League in all three of these hitting statistics: 1: Home runs. 2: Batting average. 3: Runs batted in. All three categories must be led or tied at the end of the season in order to be part of a Triple Crown performance. Few players have ever come close and when a player simply leads in two categories it is often a noteworthy achievement. Meanwhile there is also a Triple Crown of pitching that's "awarded" to the pitcher who leads — or ties — his league in three major pitching areas: 1: wins 2: strikeouts and 3: earned run average.

While there hasn't been a hitter to win the Triple Crown since Carl Yastrzemski did it in 1967, there have been several pitchers in recent years to accomplish the feat. Jake Peavy won the NL's pitching Triple Crown in 2007 and Johan Santana won it in the AL for the Twins in 2006. In fact, since horse racing's last Triple Crown winner, Affirmed in 1978, there have been a total of seven pitchers to win a Triple Crown.

That leads me to the point of this post, which of the Triple Crowns are the most impressive?

It is easy to see that a pitcher that dominates a league for a year can walk away with all the hardware. However, in today's modern era it is rare to see a power hitter that also hits for average. Albert Pujols and Alex Rodriguez have come close in recent years, but close only counts in hand grenades and horseshoes, but not horse racing.

There have been 44 horses who won two out of the three Triple Crown races and 21 who won both the Kentucky Derby and Preakness only to fail in the Belmont Stakes with Big Brown's 2008 effort being the most recent.  In fact, seven of the 21 were in the last 14 years, so we are more than due for someone to finally win it. Only eleven horses have won the elusive Triple Crown. The grueling schedule of three races in five weeks at longer distances than most have run previously in their careers is probably the most difficult task any horse will face in his racing career.

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Shackleford Steals Preakness

21. May 2011  - Published by Dan Clasgens

Shackleford spoiled Animal Kingdom’s shot at the Triple Crown by doing something the colt failed to do two weeks away in Louisville, holding on to the lead.

The Jesus Castanon-rode horse held off a late-charging Animal Kingdown to win the 136rd running of the Preakness Stakes by a half of a length.

As expected, the pace was much faster in the second gem of the Triple Crown than it was on Derby Day as Flashpoint raced out to the lead by clicking the first three-quarters of a mile in :22.69, :46.87, and 1:12.01. The race started blazing fast, but slowed down half way through. That would doom both Animal Kingdom and fellow closer Dialed In, who finished fourth. Astrology, a 15-1 shot, finished a strong third just behind Animal Kingdom.

Shackleford stayed just off the lead after getting a clean break out of the gate in the fifth post position and remained there until the second turn when he sent the horse into first and stayed there until reaching the finish line.  He paid $27.20 for his third victory in seven career starts. Shackleford ran 1 3/16 miles on a fast track in 1:56.47 and earned $600,000. He also set the pace in the Derby, but tired late to finish fourth.

With the Triple Crown out of the equation it remains to be seen what the field will look like in three weeks when the Belmont Stakes unfold in New York.

ORDER OF FINISH
1. Shackleford
2. Animal Kingdom
3. Astrology
4. Dialed In
5. Dance City
6. Mucho Macho Man
7. King Congie
8. Mr. Commons
9. Isn’t He Perfect
10. Concealed Identity
11. Norman Asbjornson
12. Sway Away
13. Midnight Interlude
14. Flashpoint

PAYOUTS
Shackleford 27.20, 10.20, 6.80
Animal Kingdom 4.20, 3.60
Astrology 8.00

EXOTICS
Exacta: 5-11 $114.80
Trifecta: 5-11-1 $1,401.80
Superfecta: 5-11-1-10 $6,212.60

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136th Preakness Stakes Preview

19. May 2011  - Published by Dan Clasgens

The 136th running of the Preakness Stakes is set for Saturday afternoon at Pimilco Race Track in Maryland.

Kentucky Derby winner Animal Kingdom drew the 11th post and is listed as the early morning line favorite at 2-1. The colt had the perfect ride in the Kentucky Derby and has plenty left in the tank to do good again here. While he is certainly a candidate to win the race, at his current price you may want to look for more value in the race.

Here are some horses that could knock off the Derby winner:

Dialed In - After a sluggish start ine Derby, the horse closed hard and over the last four furlongs of the race ran at fractions that matched the legendary Secretariat. He got lost in the shuffle early on Derby Day and with the slowest pace since 1947 had a tough time running down horses. With a faster pace and fewer horses expected here Dialed In is my pick to win the Preakness.

Mucho Macho Man - A strong Derby effort forces me to put him atop the mix of horses in my exotic bets. It will be tougher for him to get in the money than it was on Derby day, but the horse is certainly capable and must be paid attention to.

Flashpoint - One of the newcomers to the mix, Flashpoint is one of the speed horses that should get out to the top early in the race. If everything breaks right he could hang out long enough to get in the money.

Sway Away - His sire Afleet Alex won the race and the horse appears to be bred to go the distance. A true wildcard.

Midnight Interlude - If you take away his rough Derby day there is plenty to like, but most of his damage has come on turf and synthetic tracks. If he can move in the dirt he's worth adding to the mix.

BETS
$10 WP 10 Dialed In
total bet = $20

$1 Exacta Wheel
total bet = $10
10 Dialed In/4, 6, 7, 8, 9, 11
4, 6, 7, 8, 9, 11/10 Dialed In

$1 Trifecta Wheel
total bet = $72

FIRST PLACE
10 Dialed In
11 Animal Kingdom
9 Mucho Macho Man

SECOND PLACE
10 Dialed In
11 Animal Kingdom
9 Mucho Macho Man
4 Flashpoint
6 Sway Away

THIRD PLACE
10 Dialed In
11 Animal Kingdom
9 Mucho Macho Man
4 Flashpoint
6 Sway Away
8 Dance City
13 Concealed Identity
7 Midnight Interlude

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136th Preakness Stakes Field

18. May 2011  - Published by Dan Clasgens

The post positions were drawn for Saturday’s Preakness:

$1 Million Preakness Stakes (gr. I), 3-Year-Olds, 1 3/16 Miles
PP. Horse, Jockey, Trainer, ML Odds

1. Astrology, Mike Smith, Steve Asmussen, 15/1
2. Norman Asbjornson, Julian Pimentel, Chris Grove, 30/1
3. King Congie, Robby Albarado, Tom Albertrani, 20/1
4. Flashpoint, Cornelio Velasquez, Wesley Ward, 20/1
5. Shackleford, Jesus Castanon, Dale Romans, 12/1
6. Sway Away, Garrett Gomez, Jeff Bonde, 15/1
7. Midnight Interlude, Martin Garcia, Bob Baffert, 15/1
8. Dance City, Ramon Dominguez, Todd Pletcher, 12/1
9. Mucho Macho Man, Rajiv Maragh, Kathy Ritvo, 6/1
10. Dialed In, Julien Leparoux, Nick Zito, 9/2 
11. Animal Kingdom, John Velazquez, Graham Motion, 2/1
12. Isn't He Perfect, Edgar Prado, Doodnauth Shivmangal, 30/1 
13. Concealed Identity, Sheldon Russell, Dean Gaudet, 30/1
14. Mr. Commons, Victor Espinoza, John Shirreffs, 20/1

LINKS
--Animal Kingdom Gets Post 11 (Bloodhorse.com)
--Motion Likes Draw (DRF.com)
--Zito Makes Case For Dialed In (DRF.com)
--Flashback: Curlin Wins 2007 Preakness (YouTube.com)

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Animal Kingdom Takes Derby

7. May 2011  - Published by Dan Clasgens

Spiral Stakes winner Animal Kingdom came from off the pace and took over down the stretch to win the 137th Kentucky Derby by 2 3/4 lengths before a record crowd of 164,858 at Churchill Downs.

Nehro finished second in the race worth $2,171,800. He finished a neck in front of Mucho Macho Man. It was three-quarters of a length back to front-running Shackleford in fourth.

The pedestrian pace for the 1 1/4 miles was 2:02.04. John Velazquez rode the winner, who was making his first start on dirt for trainer Graham Motion. Velazquez was the jockey for Uncle Mo, who was scratched from the race Friday. He replaced Robby Albarado, who suffered a broken nose among other injuries earlier in the week.

He earned $1,411,800 for the Kentucky Derby triumph, his third win in five starts.

FINAL TAKE: I liked Animal Kingdown going in, but did not put him on top. He had a perfect race and everything broke extremely well for him and Velazquez. Which horses challenge him in two weeks remains to be seen, but if he runs as strong as he did on Saturday, Animal Kingdom will have a good chance at grabbing the second jewel of the Triple Crown. Nehro was my pick on the race and I played him with Dialed In and Soldat. All three of those horses will receive strong consideration again should they decide to run in the Preakness.

ORDER OF FINISH
1. Animal Kingdom
2. Nehro
3. Mucho Macho Man
4. Shackleford
5. Master of Hounds
6. Santiva
7. Brilliant Speed
8. Dialed In
9. Pants on Fire
10. Twice the Appeal
11. Soldat
12. Stay Thirsty
13. Derby Kitten
14. Decisive Moment
15. Archarcharch
16. Midnight Interlude
17. Twinspired
18. Watch Me Go
19. Comma to the TopPayouts:

PAYOUTS
16-Animal Kingdom: $43,80, $19.60, $13.00
19-Nehro: $8.80, $6.40
13-Mucho Macho Man: $7.00

EXOTICS
$2.00 Exacta: $329.80
$0.50 Trifecta: $988.10
$1.00 Super: $24,063.95
$1.00 Double: $196.50
$0.50 Pick 3: $1,184.55
$0.50 Pick 4: $6,146.10
$0.50 Pick 5: $213,895.34
$2.00 Pick 6 (5-of-6): $12,251.80
Pick 6 Carryover: $513,582.84

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137th Kentucky Derby Preview

6. May 2011  - Published by Dan Clasgens

The first Saturday in May as always mean it’s time for me to start some serious handicapping. This year’s Run for the Roses is as tough as ever to gage.

For starters Uncle Mo, the two-year old champion, was scratched on Friday morning. Throw in the fact that most analysts already considered this a down year for three year olds and things get really interesting.

The weather won’t be a complete washout like last year, but rain and storms are in the forecast. With Churchill Downs still being a dirt track, it could be a factor.

Despite the wide open race, I still find myself leaning towards the favorites a bit, at least on top.

Nehro is the horse I am keying on for my across-the-board and exacta wagers. He just missed in both the Louisiana and Arkansas Derby and the added distance here will work to the closer’s benefit. Plus, being on the far outside will prove to work to his advantage.

Dialed In, the morning line favorite, is lightly raced but I always favor a Florida Derby winner and horses that already have a win at Churchill Downs.

The third horse I am keying on is Soldat. Of the speed in the race he’s my best bet to get in the money and he has multiple wins at 1 1/8 miles, suggesting the distance won’t be as much of a factor.

Keep in mind the $1 TRI has averaged a payout of $5704 over the past five Kentucky Derby races. Here is my $1 Trifecta wheel (total $84 bet):

FIRST PLACE
19 Nehro
8 Dialed In
17 Soldat

SECOND PLACE
19 Nehro
8 Dialed In
17 Soldat
1 Archarcharch
10 Twinspired

THIRD PLACE
19 Nehro
8 Dialed In
17 Soldat
1 Archarch
10 Twinspired
11 Master of Hounds
16 Animal Kingdom
15 Midnight Interlude
3 Twice the Appeal

*If $84 is too rich for your blood, you can bet the same Trifecta for 50 cents; or if you want to go bigger you can double up and bet the $2 Trifecta. I have the horses listed in the order in which I like them.

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