GSI Mock Draft: Round 4

12. February 2008  - Published by Jim Humbert

The next twelve picks of the mock draft are in and round four is complete. It looks as if most owners started to fill in their lineup with some position players. But there were still a few surprises. What do you think?

ROUND 1 | ROUND 2 | ROUND 3  

37) HUMBERT #2 - Alex Rios, OF, TOR

38) POLKING - Robinson Cano, 2B, NYY

39) WETZEL - Troy Tulowitzki - SS, COL

40) BOLTON - Justin Morneau, 1B, MIN

41) BARTEL - Felix Hernandez, SP, SEA

42) DINSMORE - Adam Dunn, OF, CIN

43) MUEHLENKAMP - Aramis Ramirez, 3B, CHI

44) FISCHER - Russel Martin, C, LAD

45) HUMBERT #1 - Derek Jeter, SS, NYY

46) MURDICO - Derrek Lee, 1B, CHI

47) SIMONS - John Lackey, SP, LAA

48) CLASGENS - Joe Mauer, C, MIN

Fantasy Baseball

Comments

2/12/2008 8:06:03 AM #
Team #2 grabbed one of the most underrated players in the game in Alex Rios. The biggest problem with the pick is that after choosing Magglio Ordonez in the last round, that gives the team back-to-back outfielders. But it's still early. On the other hand team #1 grabbed a much needed middle infielder in Jeter. His skills may start to diminish but as long as he is batting second in that lineup his numbers should be solid.

The biggest stretch of the round may have been Felix Hernandez. Yes, he is a young stud pitching on a decent team in a pitchers park. But, Adam probably could have grabbed him in the next round or even round six. Plus, his last pick was Dan Haren so he probably did not need another pitcher. But, it's his team and he can do what he wants.

Two catchers were chosen in the round. While Victor Martinez will top most draft lists, Martin is likely the better backstop. The Mauer pick may be a bit early but we are setting up this league to start two Catchers. And there are not many who can win a batting title.
2/12/2008 8:20:18 AM #
Felix Hernandez is like the 7th best available pitcher on my board and I thought that was a real stretch. As far as my Dunn pick (again call me a homer), but I took him to fill a glaring weakness on my team and that was power. I had 30 HR guys in Holliday and Phillips, but I didn't have a real power source. So, in this round, there weren't any 40+ HR threats left, so it was a good pick. I think Dunn is a good 5x5 guy, but make sure you have some other really good BA guys on your team to bury his very mediocre BA. Otherwise 40 HRs and 100 Runs and close to 100 RBIs is a good pick at this juncture.
I liked the Russell Martin pick as well and agree that he's the #1 fantasy catcher because of his multiple category contribution.
2/12/2008 12:27:49 PM #
I look at Rounds 4 - Rounds 8 as the part of a draft where you can go many directions. Picking back-to-back also is tough because here I am with the 48th and 49th overall pick and won't go again until No. 72 and 73 overall.

Heading into the round I already have 3B Alex Rodriguez, 2B/OF BJ Upton, and SP Erik Bedard. I did give a couple other starters a look, but will wait until next time around to do that. I was hoping that Justin Morenau fall, but when he and Lee went I decided first base could wait. I missed out a top five shortstop and will have to wait there too. I never draft a closer this early. That left me thinking outfield and possibly catcher.

Joe Mauer is a tier-one catcher on my board, in the same level with Russell Martin and Victor Martinez and a guy that I have No. 35 overall on my board. With so many outfield options still on the board I couldn't justify passing up a Tier 1 catcher in a league where two start to take two outfielders so I grabbed Mauer here and will go with outfielder with the next pick.

Mauer is a safe bet to be good and still has the potential to be great. He will help in all five catagories and keep me from playing catcher Roulette. I see him hitting in the .320's and somewhere around 15 HRs, 75 RBIs, 80 Runs, and about 8-10 steals. While there are still many players on the board that will boast better numbers none of the are eligible at catcher.

Adam Dunn and Felix Hernandez were not good picks here, but the worst pick of the round belonged to Greg Simons as he took John Lackey. A desperate move for an ace, but he passed over safer bets in Justin Verlander, Cole Hammels, and others to get him.
2/12/2008 12:43:50 PM #
I don't necessarily see Lackey and Felix as any worse than Verlander or Hamels.  If Hamels is healthy he's an ace; missing a month in the second half of the season doesn't encourage me too much.  Hernandez got through his arm issues quickly and pitched some excellent ball down the stretch.  He keeps the ball on the ground so much that all it'll take is a little luck that he didn't get last year to bump him up into the top tier of pitchers.

As for Lackey, it's a little high, but he's so reliable that I can see paying a little bit of a premium to get him tucked away.  
2/12/2008 1:36:16 PM #
Fantasy baseball is so much different draft-wise than fantasy football. You can't just draft by position. Since you need strength in numerous categories, you have to fill categories, not positions, in my opinion. That's why Dunn was a good pick here. He wouldn't have slid all the way down. 40 HRs is a commodity. 100 runs is a commodity. You don't get points for having a top tier catcher. You only get points for categories.  In all but one category (BA), Dunn is better than Mauer. Position wise, he's ranked higher. But contributing to a fantasy team, Dunn brings a lot to the table. I agree completely about the pitchers mentioned here. All are about the same. King Felix is equal to about 7 or 8 pitchers still to be drafted and equal to Lackey as well. I predict a reliver goes sometime soon (won't be by me).
2/12/2008 1:38:00 PM #
I love Cole Hammels, but I wouldn't say he's a safe pick. He has all kinds of injury questions, including a bum elbow/shoulder that nagged him. That's a concern for me. I would've taken Verlander, or a couple other pitchers over Lackey, but that's just me.
Pete Muehlenkamp
Pete Muehlenkamp
2/12/2008 2:41:59 PM #
Going into Round Four, I had the following players on top of my board:  1.  Aramis Ramirez  2. Felix Hernandez  3.  Justin Morneau  4.  Justin Verlander  5.  Cole Hamels... I am of the firm belief that in fantasy baseball, you draft the best available player for the first half of the draft (or as Dinsmore puts it, "fill catagories and not positions").  At the midpoint, it is time to fill out the scarce positions like catcher and middle infield.  There are plenty of bargains at those positions that should be around:  Catchers:  Josh Bard, Geovanny Soto, and Jarrod Saltalamacchia (by the way, when are the Mets going to clue in and play Ramon Castro more?... ridiculous... that organization has many weaknesses including a weak and unhelpful AAA team and AA team so don't hand them the NL crown yet)  Middle Infield:  Dan Uggla, Dustin Pedroia, J.J. Hardy, Khalil Greene, and maybe Howie Kendrick, Rickie Weeks, or Carlos Guillen (still eligble at SS!). Other items:
- I think Hernandez was a great pick- in his third year, he may be a Cy Young candidate.
- Hamels' numbers were not as good as Bedard's and should have gone two or three rounds after him.
- Are people shying away from Ryan Zimmerman because of his wrist injury (the mother of all nagging baseball injuries)?
- What Reds homer will take Jay Bruce?  Will the impending signing of Kenny Lofton drop Bruce down to Rounds 12- 15?
- Best pick for the value through Round 4:  Josh Beckett in the Third Round (27 overall)... the only bad part about Beckett is that he seems to turn his talent off and on.
2/13/2008 10:44:17 AM #
I saw John Lackey as a strong bet to win around 15 games, record over 150 strikeouts and post an ERA around 3.50 in over 200 IP.  That's what he's done over the last several seasons, a significantly longer track record that Verlander or Hamels.  Could these other pitchers outperform Lackey?  Sure, but Lackey's the most sure thing among the three of them.
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